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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

An overview of wind-energy-production prediction bias, losses, and uncertainties

Abstract. The financing of a wind farm directly relates to the preconstruction energy yield assessments which estimate the annual energy production for the farm. The accuracy and the precision of the preconstruction energy estimates can dictate the profitability of the wind project. Historically, the wind industry tended to overpredict the annual energy production of wind farms. Experts have been dedicated to eliminating such prediction errors in the past decade, and recently the reported average energy prediction bias is declining. Herein, we present a literature review of the energy yield assessment errors across the global wind energy industry. We identify a long-term trend of reduction in the overprediction bias, whereas the uncertainty associated with the prediction error is prominent. We also summarize the recent advancements of the wind resource assessment process that justify the bias reduction, including improvements in modeling and measurement techniques. Additionally, because the energy losses and uncertainties substantially influence the prediction error, we document and examine the estimated and observed loss and uncertainty values from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 wind resource assessment standard. From our findings, we highlight opportunities for the industry to move forward, such as the validation and reduction of prediction uncertainty and the prevention of energy losses caused by wake effect and environmental events. Overall, this study provides a summary of how the wind energy industry has been quantifying and reducing prediction errors, energy losses, and production uncertainties. Finally, for this work to be as reproducible as possible, we include all of the data used in the analysis in appendices to the article.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low-Energy Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering and New Physics

The interactions of low-energy neutrinos with nuclei provide a unique window to explore various Standard Model (SM) and Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) processes. In particular, the recent observation of coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering (CEvNS), predicted over five decades ago, has generated significant interest across disciplines. With its high cross section and suitability for compact detectors, particularly with stopped pion neutrinos, CEvNS offers a powerful probe for light, weakly coupled new physics. Ongoing global experimental efforts now aim to leverage CEvNS to test SM predictions and search for BSM signals, where deviations in event rates or spectra could reveal new physics. We present here an estimate of the number of recoil events obtained from CEvNS using the current and upcoming liquid argon based experiments. Furthermore, the event rate due to the inclusion of neutrino magnetic moment is also discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Teleconnections-Induced Predictability of Regional Water Cycle on Seasonal to Decadal Timescales Using Machine Learning Approaches

Focal Area: (3) Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: Predictive understanding of the regional water cycle based on teleconnections of climate modes of variability using AI methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty in Simulating Twentieth Century West African Precipitation Trends: The Role of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions from North America and Europe have strong effects on the decadal variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). Anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing is model dependent, but the impact of such uncertainty on the simulation of long-term WAM variability is unknown. We use an ensemble of simulations with HadGEM3-GC3.1 that span the most recent estimates in simulated anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing. We show that uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing leads to significant uncertainty at simulating multi-decadal trends in West African precipitation. At the large scale, larger forcing leads to a larger decrease in the interhemispheric temperature gradients, in temperature over both the North Atlantic Ocean and northern Sahara. There are also differences in dynamic changes specific to the WAM (locations of the Saharan heat low and African Easterly Jet, of the strength of the West African westerly jet, and of African Easterly Wave activity). We also assess effects on monsoon precipitation characteristics and temperature. We show that larger aerosol forcing results in a decrease of the number of rainy days and of heavy and extreme precipitation events and warm spells. However, simulated changes in onset and demise dates do not appear to be sensitive to the magnitude of aerosol forcing. Our results demonstrate the importance of reducing the uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol forcing for understanding and predicting multi-decadal variability in the WAM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recent progress in low energy neutrino scattering physics and its implications for the standard and beyond the standard model physics

Neutrinos continue to provide a testing ground for the structure of the standard model of particle physics as well as hints towards the physics beyond the standard model. Neutrinos of energies spanning over several orders of magnitude, originating in many terrestrial and astrophysical processes, have been detected via various decay and interaction mechanisms. At MeV scales, there has been one elusive process, until a few years ago, known as coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering (CEvNS) that was theoretically predicted over five decades ago but was never observed experimentally. The recent experimental observation of the CEvNS process by the COHERENT collaboration at a stopped pion neutrino source has inspired physicists across many subfields. This has vital implications for nuclear physics, high-energy physics, astrophysics, and beyond. CEvNS, being a low-energy process, provides a natural window to study light, weakly-coupled, new physics in the neutrino sector. In this review, we intend to provide the current status of low energy neutrino scattering physics and its implications for the standard and beyond the standard model physics. We discuss the general formalism of calculating the tree-level CEvNS cross section and present estimated theoretical uncertainties on the CEvNS cross section stemming from different sources. We also discuss the inelastic scattering of tens of MeV neutrinos that have implications for supernova detection in future neutrino experiments. We discuss how the CEvNS experiments can be used as a testing ground for the Standard Model (SM) weak physics as well as in searching for the Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) physics signals. Any deviation from the SM predicted event rate either with a change in the total event rate or with a change in the shape of the recoil spectrum, could indicate new contributions to the interaction cross-section. The SM implications include the study of weak nuclear form factor and weak mixing angle. The BSM studies include non-standard interactions, neutrino electromagnetic properties, and sterile neutrino searches. In conclusion, stopped pion facilities are also a copious source of neutral and changed mesons that allow study of several dark sector physics scenarios such as vector portal models, leptophobic dark matter as well as axion-like particle searches.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing decadal variability of subseasonal forecasts of opportunity using explainable AI

Abstract Identifying predictable states of the climate system allows for enhanced prediction skill on the generally low-skill subseasonal timescale via forecasts with higher confidence and accuracy, known as forecasts of opportunity. This study takes a neural network approach to explore decadal variability of subseasonal predictability, particularly during forecasts of opportunity. Specifically, this work quantifies subseasonal prediction skill provided by the tropics within the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble and assesses how this skill evolves on decadal timescales. Utilizing the networks’ confidence and explainable artificial intelligence, physically meaningful sources of predictability associated with periods of enhanced skill are identified. Using these networks, we find that tropically-driven subseasonal predictability varies on decadal timescales during forecasts of opportunity. Further, we investigate the drivers of the low frequency modulation of the tropical-extratropical teleconnection and discuss the implications. Analysis is extended to ECMWF Reanalysis v5 data, revealing that the relationships learned within the CESM2-Large Ensemble holds in modern reanalysis data. These results indicate that the neural networks are capable of identifying predictable decadal states of the climate system within CESM2 that are useful for making confident, accurate subseasonal precipitation predictions in the real world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal decision trees for categorical data via integer programming

Decision trees have been a very popular class of predictive models for decades due to their interpretability and good performance on categorical features. However, they are not always robust and tend to overfit the data. Additionally, if allowed to grow large, they lose interpretability. In this paper, we present a mixed integer programming formulation to construct optimal decision trees of a prespecified size. We take the special structure of categorical features into account and allow combinatorial decisions (based on subsets of values of features) at each node. Our approach can also handle numerical features via thresholding. Here we show that very good accuracy can be achieved with small trees using moderately-sized training sets. The optimization problems we solve are tractable with modern solvers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonstatistical Behavior of the Photoionization of Spin-Orbit Doublets

The photoionization branching ratios of spin-orbit doublets are studied both experimentally and theoretically at energies several keV above threshold. The results show significant relativistic effects for Ar 2p in the autoionizing region below the 1s threshold, and large many-body effects for Xe 3d and 4d in the vicinity of the L-shell thresholds. The branching ratios in Xe are also found to vary significantly over very broad multi-keV energy regions both above and below the inner-shell thresholds. In addition, the Ar 2p study confirms experimentally the decades-old theoretical prediction that the nonresonant branching ratio does not approach the statistical (nonrelativistic) value, and, in fact, progressively diverges from statistical with increasing photon energy.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Molecular beam epitaxy of PdO on MgO (001)

PdO, widely used in catalysis in powder form for decades, has been predicted recently to be a Dirac semimetal. Synthesis of high-quality single crystals of this material is thus of great interest. Here, by using ozone-assisted molecular beam epitaxy, PdO thin films were grown on a MgO (001) substrate. X-ray diffraction and transmission electron microscopy indicate the film is a / b axis oriented, with the c axis lying in plane. Fully oxygenated PdO films have a low density of holelike carriers, and are insulating at the lowest temperatures. Our density functional theory calculations using the Heyd-Scuseria-Ernzerhof exchange-correlation functional suggest a ~1.0 eV band gap at the M point, where the gap can be reduced by tensile strain along the c axis and the bands begin to invert when the tensile strain is as high as 18%. Although tensile strain of this magnitude is experimentally not viable using epitaxy, electrons can be doped by oxygen reduction. Finally, our results emphasize the need for careful consideration of electron correlation effects and stoichiometry in ab initio modeling of topological semimetals involving transition metal oxides.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forecasting [C II ] Line-intensity Mapping Measurements between the End of Reionization and the Epoch of Galaxy Assembly

We combine recent simulation work on the SFR–[C II ] correlation at high redshift with empirical modeling of the galaxy–halo connection (via UniverseMachine) to forecast [C ii] auto power spectra from z ~ 4 to z ~ 8. We compare these to sensitivities realistically expected from various instruments expected to come online in the next decade. If the predictions of our model are correct, [C II ] should be detectable up to z ~ 6 in this generation of surveys, but detecting [C II ] past the end of reionization will require a generational leap in line-intensity survey capabilities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A New Paradigm for Observing and Modeling of Air-Sea Interactions to Advance Earth System Prediction

The protection of people, property, and environmental resources from extreme weather, seasonal patterns, and climate change drives the need for predictions of weather, ocean, and climate patterns that have skill and value at timescales longer than traditional 1-10-day forecasts, including outlooks spanning weeks to decades. Advancing Earth System Prediction (ESP) skill at this range of timescales requires improved observations, understanding, and modeling of the processes in the ocean boundary layer, the atmospheric boundary layer, and their interface. A new way of referring to this coupled system is the Air-Sea Transition Zone (ASTZ). The report that follows is framed by the paradigm that the ASTZ is a single entity that regulates the flow of energy and matter between the ocean and the atmosphere. The ASTZ is thus the medium through which the ocean and atmosphere respond to and influence one another across their often disparate scales of variability. ASTZ modeling, observing, and understanding needs are particularly acute because very few measurements exist over oceans, and even fewer span the entire ASTZ, even though oceans cover 70% of Earth’s surface and are the source of most of the rain and snow that falls on both the land and the oceans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Overview of Wind Energy Production Prediction Bias, Losses, and Uncertainties

The financing of a wind farm directly relates to the preconstruction energy yield assessments which estimate the annual energy production for the farm. The accuracy and the precision of the preconstruction energy estimates can dictate the profitability of the wind project. Historically, the wind industry tended to overpredict the annual energy production of wind farms. Experts have been dedicated to eliminating such prediction errors in the past decade, and recently the industry is recording near-zero average energy prediction bias. Herein, we present an overview of the energy yield assessment errors across the global wind energy industry. We identify a long-term trend of reduction in the overprediction bias, whereas the uncertainty associated with the prediction error is prominent. We also summarize the recent advancements of the wind resource assessment process that justify the bias reduction, including the improvements in modeling and measurement techniques. Additionally, because the energy losses and uncertainties substantially influence the prediction error, we document and examine the estimated and observed loss and uncertainty values from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 wind resource assessment standard. From our findings, we highlight the opportunities for the industry to move forward, such as the validation and reduction of prediction uncertainty, and the prevention of energy losses caused by wake effect and environmental events. Overall, this study provides a summary on how the wind energy industry has been quantifying and reducing prediction errors, energy losses, and production uncertainties. Finally, for this work to be as reproducible as possible, we include all of the data used in the analysis in appendices to the manuscript.

literature review↗
DOE OSTI2020

Collaborative Research: Advancing Arctic Climate Projection Capability at Seasonal to Decadal Scales (Final Technical Report)

The Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) at process resolving configurations has been used to (i) advance understanding of physical processes and feedbacks involved in Arctic amplification and (ii) understand and potentially reduce uncertainty in prediction of arctic climate change at seasonal to decadal scales. RASM consists the atmosphere (Weather and Research Forecasting model, WRF), ocean (Parallel Ocean Program, POP), sea ice (CICE), land hydrology (Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC), river routing scheme (RVIC), marine biogeochemistry components and the coupling framework (CPL7). Its domain is pan-Arctic, with the atmosphere and land components configured on a 50-km or 25-km grid and four configurations of the ocean and sea ice components: 1/12°(~9.3km) or 1/48°(~2.4km) and 45 or 60 vertical layers. These RASM configurations have been motivated by the emerging exascale capability for high performance computing to improve model fidelity. The dynamical downscaling of reanalysis allows comparison of RASM results with observations in place and time to: (i) advance system level understanding of physical processes and coupling involved in an event, (ii) optimize model parameter space, (iii) diagnose and reduce model biases and (iv) produce realistic and consistent across all the components initial conditions for predictions and predictability studies, which are all unique capabilities not available in global Earth System Models (ESMs). An evaluation of RASM 1.0 (Cassano et al. 2017) revealed that it had a cold bias over the oceans and a warm bias over land areas due largely to cloud and radiation biases in the model, with too little cloud cover simulated over land and too much cloud cover simulated over sub-polar oceans. This study has motivated an upgrade to WRF version 3.7.1 in RASM and allowed for the inclusion of the radiative impact of convective clouds. A variety of atmospheric physics parameterizations were evaluated against observations (e.g. data from the Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment (ACSE); Sedlar et al. 2020) to identify an optimal suite of WRF physics options in RASM. The RASM with the optimized WRF physics were used to study the impact of strong mesoscale winds over the ocean around the southern tip of Greenland (DuVivier and Cassano 2016) and their impact on oceanic convection (DuVivier et al. 2017a). Data from the PolarWinds field campaign were used to evaluate WRF boundary layer physics and resolution impacts on the simulation of a Greenland barrier wind event (DuVivier et al. 2017b). The RVIC streamflow routing model has been implemented in RASM to realistically represent high-resolution streamflow processes (Hamman et al. 2017) and to couple the land buoyancy fluxes to the ocean. The RASM-RVIC high-resolution data set of all coastal freshwater fluxes for the Arctic drainage basin and surrounding areas for 1979-2014 was published as a separate product (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.293037). The fidelity of atmospheric momentum transfer to and the response of polar marine Ekman layer in RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) was investigated by Roberts et al. (2015). The increased frequency of oceanic flux exchange in CESM, following the RASM guidance, caused a considerable increase in the median inertial ice speed across the Southern Ocean and parts of the Arctic. A comprehensive evaluation of the RASM1.0 atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land interface was completed by Brunke et al. (2018). RASM was also demonstrated for its capability to simulate extreme events in agreement with observations in space and time (Lee et al. submitted). In particular, the development of three open water events, known as polynyas, have been simulated north of Greenland in February of 2011, 2017 and 2018, in agreement with satellite observations for the past four decades. The optimized RASM sea ice results have been favorably evaluated against satellite observations and a subset of eleven CMIP6 models (Watts et al. submitted). In a complementary project, Jin et al. (2018) have shown that RASM with higher-resolution and new sea-ice processes contributed to lower model errors in sea-ice conditions, concentrations of nutrients and ice algae, in comparison to results from the coarse-resolution (1°) CESM. In two other complementary studies, RASM results were used (i) to explain areas of concentrated use by bowhead whales, the seasonal progression in the use, and the physical environment within those areas (Citta et al. 2015) and (ii) for a synthesis of fall bowhead whales distribution and migration in the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort (BCB) Sea to investigate whale movements and feeding to the local ocean hydrography and currents (Citta et al. 2018). However, the multi-decadal output from the CESM Large Ensemble yielded unrealistic forcing. Instead, the shorter NCEP CFSv2 9-month forecasts were successfully tested and afforded an increased ensemble size (~30) to demonstrate gains of dynamical downscaling at sub-seasonal to intra-annual time scales. The improved model physics and coupling among RASM model components have yielded more realistic representation of the sea ice cover and consistent across all model components initial conditions. Consequently, RASM demonstrates significant gains compared to simulation of sea ice in the NCEP reanalysis. In addition, RASM 6-month ensemble forecasts yield very realistic sea ice distribution, which demonstrates both significant gains of dynamical downscaling and the continued impact of the initial conditions on forecasts out to 6 months (https://nps.edu/web/rasm/predictions). A follow up study using RASM for dynamical downscaling of the more realistic CESM initialized Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble output is currently ongoing as part of the DOE RGMA HiLAT-RASM project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Axion Mass Prediction from Adaptive Mesh Refinement Cosmological Lattice Simulations

The quantum chromodynamics (QCD) axion arises as the pseudo-Goldstone mode of a spontaneously broken Abelian Peccei-Quinn (PQ) symmetry. If the scale of PQ symmetry breaking occurs below the inflationary reheat temperature and the domain wall number is unity, then there is a unique axion mass that gives the observed dark matter (DM) abundance. Computing this mass has been the subject of intensive numerical simulations for decades since the mass prediction informs laboratory experiments. Axion strings develop below the PQ symmetry-breaking temperature, and as the string network evolves, it emits axions that go on to become the DM. A key ingredient in the axion mass prediction is the spectral index of axion radiation emitted by the axion strings. We compute this index in this Letter using the most precise and accurate large-scale simulations to date of the axion-string network leveraging adaptive mesh refinement to achieve the precision that would, otherwise, require a static lattice with 262,144 3 lattice sites. We find a scale-invariant axion radiation spectrum to within 1% precision and find no evidence that the spectral index of radiation evolves with time. Accounting for axion production from strings prior to the QCD phase transition leads us to predict that the axion mass should be approximately 𝑚 𝑎 ∈ (45, 65) μ ⁢eV. However, we provide preliminary evidence that axions are produced in greater quantities from the string-domain-wall network collapse during the QCD phase transition, potentially increasing the mass prediction to as much as 300 μ ⁢eV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Infalling ultra-faint dwarfs as emissaries of the Axiverse

Recent discoveries of ultra-faint dwarf galaxies (UFDs) infalling onto the Milky Way, namely Leo K & M at r ≃ 450 kpc, considerably strengthens the case that UFDs constitute a distinct galaxy class that is inherently smaller and fainter, and metal-poorer than the classical dwarf spheroidals (dSph). This distinction is at odds with the inherent continuity of galaxy halo masses formed under scale-free gravity for any standard dark-matter (DM) model. Here, we show that distinct galaxy classes do evolve in cosmological simulations of multiple light bosons representing the “Axiverse” proposal of string theory, where a discrete mass spectrum of axions is generically predicted to span many decades in mass. In this context, the observed UFD class we show corresponds to a relatively heavy boson of 3 × 10 −21 eV, including Leo K & M, whereas a lighter axion of 10 −22 eV comprises the bulk of DM in all larger galaxies including the dSphs. Although Leo M is larger in size than Leo K, we predict its velocity dispersion to be smaller ( ≃ 1.7 km/s) than that of Leo K ( ≃ 4.5 km/s) because of the inverse de Broglie scale dependence on momentum. This scenario can be definitively tested using millisecond pulsars close to the Galactic center, where the Compton frequencies of the heavy and light bosons imprint monotone timing residuals that may be detected by the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) on timescales of approximately one week and four months, respectively.

dark matter↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the earth SysTem (CATALYST)

CATALYST proposes to perform foundational coordinated research in a team-oriented collaborative effort aimed at advancing a robust understanding of modes of Earth system variability and change using models, observations and process studies. The proposed research will address the DOE/BER mission by exploring the limits to predictability, identifying fundamental underlying mechanisms, quantifying interactions among modes of variability, and discovering tipping points in the Earth system to understand the current and future impacts of these phenomena on regional and global climate. Four fundamental gaps are identified in our knowledge of the Earth system: 1) What are the limits to predictability on various timescales? 2) What are the interactions among modes of Earth system variability? 3) How may modes of Earth system variability change in response to changes in external forcing, and what are the tipping points involved with those changes? 4) How are high impact events connected to modes of Earth system variability and how may they change in the future? Related to those gaps in our knowledge, we formulate four research objectives to address those gaps using a combination of Earth system models (ESMs) and machine learning (ML) methods. Research Objective 1 (RO1) addresses the first gap above and proposes to understand modes of variability and their limits of predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales using ESMs and ML. Research Objective 2 (RO2) addresses the second gap and proposes to use a hierarchy of models to understand relevant processes and feedbacks related to how modes of variability interact with each other. Research Objective 3 (RO3) is designed to study the third gap and proposes to examine the role of external forcings in changes of modes of Earth system variability and their interactions, and the likelihood and predictability of tipping points and irreversible changes. Research Objective 4 (RO4) will address the fourth gap and proposes to use high resolution ESMs, regionally refined models (RRMs), and ML methods to investigate the relationships between high impact events (e.g. flash droughts and precipitation extremes, atmospheric rivers (ARs), tropical cyclones (TCs), storm surge/sea level rise), the synoptic systems that produce them, and their changes related to modes of Earth system variability. The research will involve the use of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), CMIP multi-model data sets, a hierarchy of simpler models, and numerous observational data sets. In the course of the proposed research, CATALYST will contribute to metrics and diagnostics that will be integrated in Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC), particularly with regards to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and its interactions with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), high atmospheric pressure blocking, and new precipitation metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved Simulations of Atmospheric River Climatology and Variability in High-Resolution CESM

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can trigger extreme rainfall and snowfall events, causing high risk of flooding. Meanwhile, they are sometimes responsible for the occurrence and break of drought events. So, it is of great importance for weather and climate forecast models to accurately represent ARs. Studies have shown that AR variability is linked to various climate modes, such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Pacific-North America pattern, providing the potential for predicting ARs at subseasonal-to-decadal timescales. In this study, we examine the impact of climate model resolution on AR simulations and their relationship with major climate modes by comparing a pair of high-resolution and a low-resolution (LR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations against the observations. The results reveal major deficiencies in LR that include underestimated climatological AR strength and associated precipitation, and inaccurate representations of ARs relationships with climate modes. Significant improvements are observed by increasing CESM horizontal resolution, suggesting a path for more accurate prediction of ARs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying sensitivity in numerical weather prediction-modeled offshore wind speeds through an ensemble modeling approach

A decade of research has shown that numerical weather prediction (NWP)-modeled wind speeds can be highly sensitive to the inputs and setups within the NWP model. For wind resource characterization applications, this sensitivity is often addressed by constructing a range of setups and selecting the one that best validates against observations. However, this approach is not possible in areas that lack high-quality hub height observations, especially offshore wind areas. In such cases, techniques to quantify and disseminate confidence in NWP-modeled wind speeds in the absence of observations are needed. We address this need in the present study and propose best practices for quantifying the spread in NWP-modeled wind speeds. We implement an ensemble approach in which we consider 24 different setups to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We construct the ensemble by considering variations in WRF version, WRF namelist, atmospheric forcing, and sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. Our analysis finds that the standard deviation produces more consistent estimates compared to the interquartile range and tends to be the more conservative estimator for ensemble variability. We further find that model spread increases closer to the surface and on shorter time scales. In conclusion, we explore methods to attribute total ensemble variability to the different ensemble components (e.g., atmospheric forcing and SST product) and find that contributions by components also vary depending on time scale. We anticipate that the methods and results presented in this paper will provide a reasonable foundation for further research into ensemble-based wind resource data sets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗