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At least 73 records · Page 4

A Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

A multi-scale modeling system with unified physics has been developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The system consists of an MMF, the coupled NASA Goddard finite-volume GCM (fvGCM) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE, a CRM); the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the stand alone GCE. These models can share the same microphysical schemes, radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and surface models that have been developed, improved and tested for different environments. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on the impact of the aerosol on deep precipitation processes, (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications). We are also performing the inline tracer calculation to comprehend the ph ysical processes (i.e., boundary layer and each quadrant in the boundary layer) related to the development and structure of hurricanes and mesoscale convective systems.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Inter-annual variation of tropical cyclones simulated by GEOS-5 AGCM with modified convection scheme

The Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) global climate model with a 50-km horizontal resolution is forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) to examine the fidelity of the seasonal-mean and inter-annual variation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and the North Atlantic (NATL). The standard Relaxed Arakawa Schubert (RAS) deep convection scheme is modified to improve the representation of TCs, where the scheme implements a stochastic limit of the cumulus entrainment rate. The modification drives mid- and upper-tropospheric cooling and low- to mid-tropospheric drying in the background state, which tends to increase atmospheric instability. This enables the model to increase convective variability on an intra-seasonal timescale and improve the simulation of intense storms. Five-member ensemble runs with the modified RAS scheme for 12 years (1998–2009) exhibit realistic spatial distributions in the climatological-mean TC development area and their pathways over WNP and NATL. The GCM is able to reproduce the inter-annual variation of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) by prescribing yearly varying observed SST even though the individual TC intensity is still underpredicted. A sensitivity of TC activity to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase is also reproduced realistically over WNP in terms of the spatial pattern changes in the main development region and TC pathways. However, the model exhibits a notable deficiency in NATL in reproducing the observed inter-annual variation of TC activity and the sensitivity to the ENSO.

accumulated cyclone energy↗

A Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

A multi-scale modeling system with unified physics has been developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The system consists of an MMF, the coupled NASA Goddard finite-volume GCM (fvGCM) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE, a CRM); the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the stand alone GCE. These models can share the same microphysical schemes, radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and surface models that have been developed, improved and tested for different environments. The following is presented in this report: (1) a brief review of the GCE model and its applications on the impact of aerosols on deep precipitation processes, (2) the Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) a discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge and support human space missions. Through artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in space biosciences and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth-independence and mission operations autonomy. We describe current AI/ML methods to support 1) fundamental biology, 2) in situ analytics, 3) high performance computing, 4) automated science, 5) self-driving labs, 6) remote data management, 7) integrated mission biomonitoring, and 8) a Precision Space Health system. AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support these domains include active learning, explainable AI, adaptive learning, causal inference, knowledge graphs, federated learning, transfer learning, and large language models. Finally, we present results from several current ML projects that are underway in the space biology field to address key challenges of small sample n, high feature count, heterogeneity, and sparse data. These include 1) connecting omics to phenotypic data using an ensemble model to infer causality of rodent liver health disruption, 2) usage of explainable ML to interrogate muscular underpinnings of muscle atrophy, 3) ML models analyzing and determining directed acyclic graphs of human health risk leveraging rodent bone datasets, 4) usage of large pre-trained models connecting biomedical knowledgebases with small spaceflight datasets to understand gene-to-gene interactions, and 5) a suite of benchmarked open science datasets enabling programmers to identify best algorithms to answer space biology questions.

space biology↗

Hierarchical Statistical 3D ' Atomistic' Simulation of Decanano MOSFETs: Drift-Diffusion, Hydrodynamic and Quantum Mechanical Approaches

When MOSFETs are scaled to deep submicron dimensions the discreteness and randomness of the dopant charges in the channel region introduces significant fluctuations in the device characteristics. This effect, predicted 20 year ago, has been confirmed experimentally and in simulation studies. The impact of the fluctuations on the functionality, yield, and reliability of the corresponding systems shifts the paradigm of the numerical device simulation. It becomes insufficient to simulate only one device representing one macroscopical design in a continuous charge approximation. An ensemble of macroscopically identical but microscopically different devices has to be characterized by simulation of statistically significant samples. The aims of the numerical simulations shift from predicting the characteristics of a single device with continuous doping towards estimating the mean values and the standard deviations of basic design parameters such as threshold voltage, subthreshold slope, transconductance, drive current, etc. for the whole ensemble of 'atomistically' different devices in the system. It has to be pointed out that even the mean values obtained from 'atomistic' simulations are not identical to the values obtained from continuous doping simulations. In this paper we present a hierarchical approach to the 'atomistic' simulation of aggressively scaled decanano MOSFETs. A full scale 3D drift-diffusion'atomostic' simulation approach is first described and used for verification of the more economical, but also more restricted, options. To reduce the processor time and memory requirements at high drain voltage we have developed a self-consistent option based on a thin slab solution of the current continuity equation only in the channel region. This is coupled to the Poisson's equation solution in the whole simulation domain in the Gummel iteration cycles. The accuracy of this approach is investigated in comparison with the full self-consistent solution. At low drain voltage only single solution of the nonlinear Poisson equation is sufficient to extract the current with satisfactory accuracy. A pilot version of a hydrodynamic 'atomistic' simulator has been developed in order to study the effect of the nonequilibrium, non local transport in decanano MOSFETs on the random dopant induced current fluctuations. For the first time we have also applied the density gradient approach in 3D to investigate the effect of the quantum confinement on the threshold voltage fluctuations. The developed 'atomistic' simulation techniques have been applied to study various fluctuation resistant MOSFET architectures including epitaxial and delta doped devices.

Asenov, Asen↗

Moist convection and the vertical structure and water abundance of Jupiter's atmosphere

The cumulative effects of an ensemble of moist convective plumes on a conditionally unstable atmosphere are predicted by a model of moist convection on Jupiter in which the heating/cooling and drying/moistening of the environment occur through (1) compensating subsidence, (2) detrainment of updraft air at cloud tops, and (3) the evaporation and melting of falling condensate. Parahydrogen is transported as a passive tracer. Pure moist convective, mixed moist-dry convective, and primarily dry convective regimes are possible, depending on the assumed deep-water abundance, efficiency of condensate evaporation, and initial temperature profile.

Del Genio, Anthony D.↗

The Impact of Pixel Size on the Characterization of Deep Convective Clouds for Calibration

The NASA CERES project provides the scientific community the observed TOA SW and LW fluxes for climate monitoring and climate model validation. CERES utilizes hourly geostationary imager derived broadband fluxes, which rely on the channel radiances and associated cloud retrievals, are used to estimate the broadband fluxes between CERES observations. This requires stable and consistent cross-platform imager visible channel calibration. The CERES project utilizes deep convective clouds (DCC) as an invariant Earth target to both monitor the stability of sensors and for radiometric scaling. GSICS, an international collaboration, is also evaluating and implementing the DCC invariant target calibration methodology to provide consistent calibration coefficients across geostationary imagers anchored to the AquaMODIS or the NOAA-20 VIIRS calibration reference. Tropical DCC are the brightest, coldest, most Lambertian, top of the atmosphere Earth targets. The DCC invariant target calibration methodology relies on a large ensemble of tropical D CC-identified pixel-level reflectances, which are aggregated as probability density functions (PDF). By assuming the monthly PDF shape is otherwise consistent in time excepting shifts in reflectance caused by changes in the sensor calibration, the imager stability is monitored. Radiometric scaling is accomplished by ratioing the sensor pair DCC PDF reflectance values. The success of the DCC methodology relies on consistent PDF distributions. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of pixel resolution on the DCC reflectance distribution. Single SNPP-VIIRS 750-m and Landsat 8 OLI 30-m granules are aggregated to degrade the pixel resolution from the native level. The DCC pixels are identified using a BT threshold. Most of the brightest DCC pixels are also the coldest, although there are exceptions. It was found that increasing the BT threshold exponentially increased the number of darker pixels. The pixel resolution did not seem to impact the DCC reflectance PDF distribution for pixel resolutions less than 3 km, which suggests that imagers of varying pixel resolutions may be radiometrically scaled to each other using DCC targets.

DCC↗

Spectral Retrieval of Latent Heating Profiles from TRMM PR Data: Comparison of Look-Up Tables

The primary goal of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is to use the information about distributions of precipitation to determine the four dimensional (i.e., temporal and spatial) patterns of latent heating over the whole tropical region. The Spectral Latent Heating (SLH) algorithm has been developed to estimate latent heating profiles for the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) with a cloud- resolving model (CRM). The method uses CRM- generated heating profile look-up tables for the three rain types; convective, shallow stratiform, and anvil rain (deep stratiform with a melting level). For convective and shallow stratiform regions, the look-up table refers to the precipitation top height (PTH). For anvil region, on the other hand, the look- up table refers to the precipitation rate at the melting level instead of PTH. For global applications, it is necessary to examine the universality of the look-up table. In this paper, we compare the look-up tables produced from the numerical simulations of cloud ensembles forced with the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Response Experiment (COARE) data and the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) data. There are some notable differences between the TOGA-COARE table and the GATE table, especially for the convective heating. First, there is larger number of deepest convective profiles in the TOGA-COARE table than in the GATE table, mainly due to the differences in SST. Second, shallow convective heating is stronger in the TOGA COARE table than in the GATE table. This might be attributable to the difference in the strength of the low-level inversions. Third, altitudes of convective heating maxima are larger in the TOGA COARE table than in the GATE table. Levels of convective heating maxima are located just below the melting level, because warm-rain processes are prevalent in tropical oceanic convective systems. Differences in levels of convective heating maxima probably reflect differences in melting layer heights. We are now extending our study to simulations of other field experiments (e.g. SCSMEX and ARM) in order to examine the universality of the look-up table. The impact of look-up tables on the retrieved latent heating profiles will also be assessed.

Shige, Shoichi↗

NASA Tech Briefs, October 2008

Topics covered include: Control Architecture for Robotic Agent Command and Sensing; Algorithm for Wavefront Sensing Using an Extended Scene; CO2 Sensors Based on Nanocrystalline SnO2 Doped with CuO; Improved Airborne System for Sensing Wildfires; VHF Wide-Band, Dual-Polarization Microstrip-Patch Antenna; Onboard Data Processor for Change-Detection Radar Imaging; Using LDPC Code Constraints to Aid Recovery of Symbol Timing; System for Measuring Flexing of a Large Spaceborne Structure; Integrated Formation Optical Communication and Estimation System; Making Superconducting Welds between Superconducting Wires; Method for Thermal Spraying of Coatings Using Resonant-Pulsed Combustion; Coating Reduces Ice Adhesion; Hybrid Multifoil Aerogel Thermal Insulation; SHINE Virtual Machine Model for In-flight Updates of Critical Mission Software; Mars Image Collection Mosaic Builder; Providing Internet Access to High-Resolution Mars Images; Providing Internet Access to High-Resolution Lunar Images; Expressions Module for the Satellite Orbit Analysis Program Virtual Satellite; Small-Body Extensions for the Satellite Orbit Analysis Program (SOAP); Scripting Module for the Satellite Orbit Analysis Program (SOAP); XML-Based SHINE Knowledge Base Interchange Language; Core Technical Capability Laboratory Management System; MRO SOW Daily Script; Tool for Inspecting Alignment of Twinaxial Connectors; An ATP System for Deep-Space Optical Communication; Polar Traverse Rover Instrument; Expert System Control of Plant Growth in an Enclosed Space; Detecting Phycocyanin-Pigmented Microbes in Reflected Light; DMAC and NMP as Electrolyte Additives for Li-Ion Cells; Mass Spectrometer Containing Multiple Fixed Collectors; Waveguide Harmonic Generator for the SIM; Whispering Gallery Mode Resonator with Orthogonally Reconfigurable Filter Function; Stable Calibration of Raman Lidar Water-Vapor Measurements; Bimaterial Thermal Compensators for WGM Resonators; Root Source Analysis/ValuStream[Trade Mark] - A Methodology for Identifying and Managing Risks; Ensemble: an Architecture for Mission-Operations Software; Object Recognition Using Feature-and Color-Based Methods; On-Orbit Multi-Field Wavefront Control with a Kalman Filter; and The Interplanetary Overlay Networking Protocol Accelerator.

Source record↗

Reactive Sequencing for Autonomous Navigation Evolving from Phoenix Entry, Descent, and Landing

Virtual Machine Language (VML) is an award-winning advanced procedural sequencing language in use on NASA deep-space missions since 1997, and was used for the successful entry, descent, and landing (EDL) of the Phoenix spacecraft onto the surface of Mars. Phoenix EDL utilized a state-oriented operations architecture which executed within the constraints of the existing VML 2.0 flight capability, compatible with the linear "land or die" nature of the mission. The intricacies of Phoenix EDL included the planned discarding of portions of the vehicle, the complex communications management for relay through on-orbit assets, the presence of temporally indeterminate physical events, and the need to rapidly catch up four days of sequencing should a reboot of the spacecraft flight computer occur shortly before atmospheric entry. These formidable operational challenges led to new techniques for packaging and coordinating reusable sequences called blocks using one-way synchronization via VML sequencing global variable events. The coordinated blocks acted as an ensemble to land the spacecraft, while individually managing various elements in as simple a fashion as possible. This paper outlines prototype VML 2.1 flight capabilities that have evolved from the one-way synchronization techniques in order to implement even more ambitious autonomous mission capabilities. Target missions for these new capabilities include autonomous touch-and-go sampling of cometary and asteroidal bodies, lunar landing of robotic missions, and ultimately landing of crewed lunar vehicles. Close proximity guidance, navigation, and control operations, on-orbit rendezvous, and descent and landing events featured in these missions require elaborate abort capability, manifesting highly non-linear scenarios that are so complex as to overtax traditional sequencing, or even the sort of one-way coordinated sequencing used during EDL. Foreseeing advanced command and control needs for small body and lunar landing guidance, navigation and control scenarios, work began three years ago on substantial upgrades to VML that are now being exercised in scenarios for lunar landing and comet/asteroid rendezvous. The advanced state-based approach includes coordinated state transition machines with distributed decision-making logic. These state machines are not merely sequences - they are reactive logic constructs capable of autonomous decision making within a well-defined domain. Combined with the JPL's AutoNav software used on Deep Space 1 and Deep Impact, the system allows spacecraft to autonomously navigate to an unmapped surface, soft-contact, and either land or ascend. The state machine architecture enabled by VML 2.1 has successfully performed sampling missions and lunar descent missions in a simulated environment, and is progressing toward flight capability. The authors are also investigating using the VML 2.1 flight director architecture to perform autonomous activities like rendezvous with a passive hypothetical Mars sample return capsule. The approach being pursued is similar to the touch-and-go sampling state machines, with the added complications associated with the search for, physical capture of, and securing of a separate spacecraft. Complications include optically finding and tracking the Orbiting Sample Capsule (OSC), keeping the OSC illuminated, making orbital adjustments, and physically capturing the OSC. Other applications could include autonomous science collection and fault compensation.

asteroid↗

The Role of Aerosols on Precipitation Processes: Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

Cloud microphysics is inevitably affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds. Therefore, size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effects of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, rainfall production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral bin microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles [i.e. pristine ice crystals (columnar and plate-like), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail]. Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e., 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep cloud systems in the west Pacific warm pool region, the sub-tropics (Florida) and midlatitudes using identical thermodynamic conditions but with different concentrations of CCN: a low "clean" concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. Results indicate that the low CCN concentration case produces rainfall at the surface sooner than the high CeN case but has less cloud water mass aloft. Because the spectral-bin model explicitly calculates and allows for the examination of both the mass and number concentration of species in each size category, a detailed analysis of the instantaneous size spectrum can be obtained for these cases. It is shown that since the low (CN case produces fewer droplets, larger sizes develop due to greater condensational and collection growth, leading to a broader size spectrum in comparison to the high CCN case. Sensitivity tests were performed to identify the impact of ice processes, radiation and large-scale influence on cloud-aerosol interactive processes, especially regarding surface rainfall amounts and characteristics (i.e., heavy or convective versus light or stratiform types). In addition, an inert tracer was included to follow the vertical redistribution of aerosols by cloud processes. We will also give a brief review from observational evidence on the role of aerosol on precipitation processes.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Multiclass Flight Anomaly Detection Using Sensor Fusion Based on Dempster-Shafer Theory

As aviation systems in commercial operations continue to grow in complexity, the anomalies exhibited by these systems become more elaborate and difficult to detect. To address the challenge of detecting these complex anomalies, deep learning models have been used extensively in aviation anomaly detection studies, at the expense of end-user interpretability. Aiming to maintain the same level of interpretability as traditional threshold-exceedance methods, we continue our development of prediction models using ordinal patterns and their distributions throughout the flight. Specifically, this study extends our work into multiclass anomaly detection using sensor fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory (DST), a second-order probability theory used to combine information from different sources of evidence. Our approach uses DST toreduce the uncertainty in the class predictions of an ensemble of classifiers. These classifiers rely on the similarity between flight data and class templates to make a prediction of the state of the aircraft. Our approach aims to take advantage of simple models trained on interpretable features (ordinal patterns) to correctly predict an anomaly and identify the flight dynamics linked to the anomaly. Our results show an improvement when using DST-based sensor fusion over simple majority voting. Additionally, our results provide insight into aircraft states linked to rare high-risk anomalies.

Risk detection↗

Multiclass Flight Anomaly Detection Using Sensor Fusion Based on Dempster-Shafer Theory

As aviation systems in commercial operations continue to grow in complexity, the anomalies exhibited by these systems become more elaborate and difficult to detect. To address the challenge of detecting these complex anomalies, deep learning models have been used extensively in aviation anomaly detection studies, at the expense of end-user interpretability. Aiming to maintain the same level of interpretability as traditional threshold-exceedance methods, we continue our development of prediction models using ordinal patterns and their distributions throughout the flight. Specifically, this study extends our work into multiclass anomaly detection using sensor fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory (DST), a second-order probability theory used to combine information from different sources of evidence. Our approach uses DST to reduce the uncertainty in the class predictions of an ensemble of classifiers. These classifiers rely on the similarity between flight data and class templates to make a prediction of the state of the aircraft. Our approach aims to take advantage of simple models trained on interpretable features (ordinal patterns) to correctly predict an anomaly and identify the flight dynamics linked to the anomaly. Our results show an improvement when using DST-based sensor fusion over simple majority voting. Additionally, our results provide insight into aircraft states linked to rare high-risk anomalies.

Risk detection↗

Structure and Variability of Water Vapor in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

Upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH) has been synoptically mapped via an algorithm that rejects small-scale undersampled variance, which is intrinsic to asymptotic measurements of water vapor, cloud, and other convective properties. Mapped distributions of UTH have been used, jointly with high-resolution Global Cloud Imagery (GCI), to study how the upper troposphere is humidified. The time-mean distribution of UTH is spatially correlated to the time-mean distribution of cold cloud fraction (eta)(sub c) (T < than 230 K). Regions of large UTH coincide with regions of large eta(sub c), which mark deep convection. They also coincide with regions of reduced vertical stability, in which the vertical gradient of theta is weakened by convective mixing. Coldest cloud cover is attended convective overshoots above the local tropopause, which is simultaneously coldest and highest. Together, these features reflect the upper-troposphere being ventilated by convection, which mixes in moist air from lower levels. Histograms of UTH and eta(sub c) have been applied to construct the joint probability density function, which quantifies the relationship between these properties. The expected value of UTH in convective regions is strongly correlated to the expected value of eta(sub c). In ensembles of asymptotic samples, the correlation between epsilon[UTH] and epsilon[eta(sub c)] exceeds 0.80. As these expectations reflect the most likely values, the strong correlation between epsilon[UTH] and epsilon[eta(sub c)] indicates that the large-scale organization of UTH is strongly shaped by convective pumping of moisture from lower levels. The same relationship holds for unsteady fields - even though, instantaneously, those fields are comprised almost entirely of small-scale convective structure. The spatial autocorrelation of UTH, constructed at high resolution from overpass data along ascending and descending tracks of the orbit, is limited to only a couple of degrees in the horizontal. This mirrors the spatial autocorrelation of eta(sub c), which likewise operates coherently on short scales. The short correlation scale of UTH, which reflects the scale of individual convective systems, is comparable to the spacing of retrievals from MLS. These scales are undersampled in the asynoptic measurements. Despite their prevalence, the mapping algorithm described above successfully recovers synoptic behavior operating coherently on large scales. It reveals eastward migration of anomalous UTH from the Indian ocean to the central Pacific, in association with the modulation of convection by the Madden-Julian oscillation. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Salby, Murry L.↗

Laser transit anemometer measurements on a slender cone in the Langley unitary plan wind tunnel

A laser transit anemometer (LTA) system was used to probe the boundary layer on a slender (5 degree half angle) cone model in the Langley unitary plan wind tunnel. The anemometer system utilized a pair of laser beams with a diameter of 40 micrometers spaced 1230 micrometers apart to measure the transit times of ensembles of seeding particles using a cross-correlation technique. From these measurements, boundary layer profiles around the model were constructed and compared with CFD calculations. The measured boundary layer profiles representing the boundary layer velocity normalized to the edge velocity as a function of height above the model surface were collected with the model at zero angle of attack for four different flow conditions, and were collected in a vertical plane that bisected the model's longitudinal center line at a location 635 mm from the tip of the forebody cone. The results indicate an excellent ability of the LTA system to make velocity measurements deep into the boundary layer. However, because of disturbances in the flow field caused by onboard seeding, premature transition occurred implying that upstream seeding is mandatory if model flow field integrity is to be maintained. A description and results of the flow field surveys are presented.

Humphreys, William M., Jr.↗

A four-lidar view of Cirrus from the FIRE IFO: 27-28 October 1986

The four ground-based lidar systems that participated in the 1986 FIRE IFO were configured in a diamond-shaped array across central and southern Wisconsin. Data were generally collected in the zenith pointing mode, except for the Doppler lidar, which regularly operated in a scanning mode with intermittent zenith observations. As a component of the cirrus case study of 27 and 28 October 1986 selected for initial analysis, data collected by the remote sensor ensemble from 1600 (on the 27th) to 2400 UTC (on the 28th) is described and compared. In general, the cirrus studied on the 27th consisted of intermittent layers of thin and subvisual cirrus clouds. Particularly at Wausau, subvisual cirrus was detected from 11.0 to 11.5 km MSL, just below the tropopause. At lower levels, occasional cirrus clouds between approx. 8.0 to 9.5 km were detected from all ground sites. Preliminary analysis of the four-lidar dataset reveals the passage of surprisingly consistent cloud features across the experiment area. A variety of types and amounts of middle and high level clouds occurred, ranging from subvisual cirrus to deep cloud bands. It is expected that the ground-based lidar measurements from this case study, as well as the airborne observations, will provide an excellent data base for comparison to satellite observations.

Sassen, Kenneth↗

CMIP6 Historical Simulations (1850‐2014) with GISS‐E2.1

Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period 1850‐‐2014, characterized by the emergence of anthropogenic climate drivers like greenhouse gases, are presented for different configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth System ModelE2.1. The GISS‐E2.1 ensembles are more sensitive to forcing than their CMIP5 predecessors (GISS‐E2), but warm less during recent decades due to reduced total forcing. This forcing reduction is attributed to an increase in longwave opacity in pre‐industrial simulations, resulting in an atmosphere less sensitive to further increases in opacity that result from rising greenhouse gas concentrations. This demonstrates the importance of the base climatology to forcing and forced climate trends. Most model versions match observed temperature trends since 1979 from the ocean to the stratosphere. The choice of ocean model is important to the transient climate response, as found in CMIP5 GISS‐E2: the model that more efficiently exports heat to the deep ocean shows a smaller rise in tropospheric temperature. Model sea level rise over the historical period is traced to excessive drawdown of aquifers to meet irrigation demand with a smaller contribution from thermal expansion. This shows how fully coupled models can provide indirect observational constraints upon forcing, in this case, constraining irrigation rates with observed sea level changes. The overall agreement of GISS‐E2.1 with observed trends is familiar from evaluation of its predecessors, as is the conclusion that these trends are almost entirely anthropogenic in origin.

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Ea↗

Evaluation of global terrestrial evapotranspiration using state-of-the-art approaches in remote sensing, machine learning and land surface modeling

Evapotranspiration (ET) is critical in linking global water, carbon and energy cycles. However, direct measurement of global terrestrial ET is not feasible. Here, we first reviewed the basic theory and state-of-the-art approaches for estimating global terrestrial ET, including remote-sensing-based physical models, machine-learning algorithms and land surface models (LSMs). We then utilized 4 remote-sensing-based physical models, 2 machine-learning algorithms and 14 LSMs to analyze the spatial and temporal variations in global terrestrial ET. The results showed that the ensemble means of annual global terrestrial ET estimated by these three categories of approaches agreed well, with values ranging from 589.6 mm/yr (6.56×10^4 cu.km/yr) to 617.1 mm/yr (6.87×10^4 cu.km/yr). For the period from 1982 to 2011, both the ensembles of remote-sensing-based physical models and machine-learning algorithms suggested increasing trends in global terrestrial ET (0.62 mm/sq.yr with a significance level of p<0.05 and 0.38 mm yr−2 with a significance level of p<0.05, respectively). In contrast, the ensemble mean of the LSMs showed no statistically significant change (0.23 mm/sq.yr, p>0.05), although many of the individual LSMs reproduced an increasing trend. Nevertheless, all 20 models used in this study showed that anthropogenic Earth greening had a positive role in increasing terrestrial ET. The concurrent small interannual variability, i.e., relative stability, found in all estimates of global terrestrial ET, suggests that a potential planetary boundary exists in regulating global terrestrial ET, with the value of this boundary being around 600 mm/yr. Uncertainties among approaches were identified in specific regions, particularly in the Amazon Basin and arid/semiarid regions. Improvements in parameterizing water stress and canopy dynamics, the utilization of new available satellite retrievals and deep-learning methods, and model–data fusion will advance our predictive understanding of global terrestrial ET.

surface modeling↗