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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A Systematic Approach to Developing Sustainable Post-Disaster Shelters in the Southern Region of the United States

This study aims to propose a sustainable shelter design involving energy savings, less environmental impact, and rapid construction. The structural design of the shelter is based on 3D-printing technology. Sustainability assessments, including life cycle analysis (LCA), life cycle energy assessment (LCEA), and energy justice of the designed shelter, were conducted to prove the sustainable shelter design. The outcomes of this study for several scenarios will not only allow decision-makers to design permanent shelters with maximized utilization of limited resources but also help local communities strengthen their ability to recover with minimal outside assistance post-disaster. Furthermore, residents can utilize the sustainable shelter to maintain critical functions, including business continuity and local business in emergencies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

First-of-a-Kind Risk-Informed Digital Twin for Operational Decision Making

A digital twin (DT) is a digital model or a collection of models of a physical entity. DTs in the nuclear arena can be used from plant design through decommissioning. Decisions are typically a priori or made offline. Risk-informed decision making is identifying what can go wrong, its frequency, and the consequences of its failure. Ideally risk-informed decision making reflects the current state of the plant and provides a decision in real time. Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) evaluate the failures of safety systems, the risk of core damage, and the offsite dose as the consequence. However, this DT evaluates the decisions on the control side rather than the protection side. It uses the same risk methods to probabilistically inform the decision-making process but in a different way. Rather than evaluating the risk of core damage, this DT evaluates the likelihood of avoiding a trip set point while maintaining plant safety. Performance-based assessments are identified via its probabilistic evaluation of operational alternatives based on system status. Because the purpose of the control system is to maintain system variables within prescribed operating ranges, upsets or challenges that can exceed a trip set point resulting in a plant transient and a challenge to plant mitigating systems based on actual plant conditions, are evaluated to safely maintain the plant within the operating ranges. The probabilistic portion of the model is autonomously and automatically adjusted, and the metric of interest (i.e. likelihood of avoiding a trip set point) is recalculated. The digital representation of the physical system (i.e. the DT) performs a deterministic performance–based assessment of the probabilistically identified alternatives identified to validate the probabilistic assessment. A decision-making algorithm selects the appropriate option based on the probabilistic and deterministic assessments and transmits a control signal to a component(s) to initiate a corrective action or informs an operator of its decision.

digital twin↗
DOE OSTI2025

A matheuristic for design and dispatch of a utility-connected distributed energy system

Modeling distributed power generation systems often requires complicated mathematical expressions that present challenges for commercial optimization solvers. Here, this paper presents a matheuristic to solve a mixed-integer optimization model that informs decisions regarding the design and dispatch of a utility-connected microgrid. We deploy a genetic algorithm to search the system design space and a linear program to solve the economic dispatch problem. The model is a component of a web tool that requires solutions within a few minutes. Our method yields objective function values within 5% of an exogenously produced optimal in fewer than 30 seconds for 90% of our test cases compared to only 10% of our test cases by a traditional optimization solver in the same amount of time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Microgrids are an increasingly popular solution to provide energy resilience in response to increasing grid dependency and the growing impacts of climate change on grid operations. However, existing microgrid models do not currently consider the uncertain and long-term impacts of climate change when determining a set of design and operational decisions to minimize long-term costs or meet a resilience threshold. In this paper, we develop a novel scenario generation method that accounts for the uncertain effects of (i) climate change on variable renewable energy availability, (ii) extreme heat events on site load, and (iii) population and electrification trends on load growth. Additionally, we develop a two-stage stochastic programming extension of an existing microgrid design and dispatch optimization model to obtain uncertainty-informed and climate-resilient energy system decisions that minimizes long-term costs. Use of sample average approximation to validate our two case studies illustrates that the proposed methodology produces high-quality solutions that add resilience to systems with existing backup generation while reducing expected long-term costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scenario Generation for Built Environment Decision Support under Uncertainty: Case Studies of Airflow Modeling and Climate-Resilient Infrastructure System Design

When confronted with unforeseen challenges, practicing informed decision making is crucial for enhancing resilience in the built environment. While scan-to-building information modeling (BIM) is a well-established approach for creating detailed digital representations of physical assets, its application in assessing and improving infrastructure resilience remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by proposing a novel application of scan-to-BIM, namely, scan-to-BIM-to-digital twin (S-BIM-DT) workflow. By integrating reality capture and digital twin technologies, this workflow creates continuously updated and accurate digital representations of physical assets, enabling the generation of various scenarios. Unlike traditional methods, the S BIM-DT workflow facilitates continuous model refinement, supporting informed resilience strategies. By combining these technologies into a cohesive process, the workflow facilitates decision making under uncertainty, enabling stakeholders to evaluate and respond to various scenarios effectively. We demonstrate the implementation of the S-BIM-DT workflow through two use cases that highlight its capability to enhance resilience at different scales. The first use case involves the Combined Transportation, Emergency, and Communications Center (CTECC) in Austin, Texas. BIM-enriched computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling simulates airflow and develops alternative scenarios for optimizing the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. This approach enhances resilience against airborne health threats in a postCOVID context. The second use case focuses on designated areas within Beaumont, Texas, as part of the Southeast Texas Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (SETx-UIFL) research. By developing inundation maps to assess extreme weather events, this modeling aids in preparedness efforts and informs the development of climate-resilient infrastructure in vulnerable neighborhoods. Results indicate that the S-BIM-DT workflow effectively generates scenarios that enhance resilience in the built environment by facilitating informed decision making. Furthermore, this study serves as a bridge between advanced scan-to-BIM methodologies and the practical strategies needed to improve built infrastructure resilience.

Built environment↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic machine learning for battery health diagnostics and prognostics—review and perspectives

Abstract Diagnosing lithium-ion battery health and predicting future degradation is essential for driving design improvements in the laboratory and ensuring safe and reliable operation over a product’s expected lifetime. However, accurate battery health diagnostics and prognostics is challenging due to the unavoidable influence of cell-to-cell manufacturing variability and time-varying operating circumstances experienced in the field. Machine learning approaches informed by simulation, experiment, and field data show enormous promise to predict the evolution of battery health with use; however, until recently, the research community has focused on deterministic modeling methods, largely ignoring the cell-to-cell performance and aging variability inherent to all batteries. To truly make informed decisions regarding battery design in the lab or control strategies for the field, it is critical to characterize the uncertainty in a model’s predictions. After providing an overview of lithium-ion battery degradation, this paper reviews the current state-of-the-art probabilistic machine learning models for health diagnostics and prognostics. Details of the various methods, their advantages, and limitations are discussed in detail with a primary focus on probabilistic machine learning and uncertainty quantification. Last, future trends and opportunities for research and development are discussed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

FuSED – Users Manual – (V.5.26)

The Fusion of Simulation, Experiment, and Data (FuSED) team provides a set of tools for solving inverse problems in structural dynamics (InverseSD) and thermal physics (InverseAria), a sensor placement optimization tool via Optimal Experimental Design (OED), and a decision boundary tool using SVMs (TRACE). These methods are used for designing experiments, model calibration, and verification/validation analysis of systems. This document provides a user’s guide.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the hygrothermal performance of bio-based materials in building wall systems

Building envelope systems are crucial in regulating thermal and moisture exchange between interior and exterior environments, accounting for approximately 28 % of building energy consumption in the United States with walls being the primary contributors. Improper selection of building envelope materials can lead to moisture-related issues, reduced resilience, and compromised durability. Hygrothermal performance assessment is a key factor in efficient building design. As such, improving the energy and hygrothermal performance of opaque wall materials, through careful assessment of material choices, is essential to enhancing building resilience, lowering energy costs, and improving occupant comfort. As the building industry seeks new strategies to reduce material energy intensity, bio-based materials emerge as a promising solution. However, their long-term hygrothermal performance in building envelope systems remains underexplored. To fill this gap, this study evaluates the hygrothermal behavior of 13 bio-based materials in residential wall systems across three U.S. climate zones. Laboratory experiments were performed to measure material properties such as density, thermal conductivity, moisture transmission, and sorption isotherms. These data were integrated into the WUFI® simulation tool to assess wall hygrothermal performance in Houston, Baltimore, and Chicago. A three-phase modeling approach was used: (1) baseline residential walls with oriented strand board (OSB) and gypsum board; (2) replacing OSB with bio-based materials; and (3) replacing drywall with bio-based materials. Results showed that the evaluated bio-based materials maintained acceptable moisture thresholds of ≤ 16 % across all climates, confirming their viability as an alternative for current sheathing materials. Furthermore, this study provides a foundation for future research and innovation in material science on the use of certain bio-based materials in high-performance, low energy use residential construction. Ultimately, providing critical data, offering a database of bio-based material properties, and supplying a simulation-based approach will help designers make informed decisions for future efficient building practices.

Bio-based materials↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of High-Reactivity Advanced Test Reactor Experiments on Photon Heating in Nearby Experiment Locations

The Advanced Test Reactor’s (ATR’s) distinctive ability to provide a wide range of irradiation conditions is attractive for programs pursuing fuel qualification experiments. These potentially high-fuel-load experiments are a relatively new development and produce unexplored effects on nearby experiments. Here, this paper explores how photon heating of such an experiment may affect other nearby experiment programs, ultimately serving to better inform decisions regarding experiment design and risks to programmatic goals. The MC21 (Monte Carlo for the 21st Century) code is used to model and study how gamma heat generation rates and axial effects impact different ATR positions. The results reveal that the proximity of a given experiment’s position to the high-fuel-load one can significantly alter that experiment’s expected axial profile.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Controlled Environment Agriculture SiteScout (CEA SiteScout) v1.0

This is a geospatial online decision support tool designed to help identify locations where controlled environment agriculture (CEA) can be cited to take advantage of energy and water resources. It also quantifies the benefits of selected energy and water efficiency measures.

Stokes-Draut, Jennifer [Lawrence Berkeley National↗
DOE OSTI2024

Beyond Price-Taker: Multiscale Optimization of a Wind-Battery Integrated Energy System within the Wholesale Electricity Market

This work presents the optimization of a wind-battery IES using the multiscale optimization framework proposed in our previous work to quantify errors from the price-taker assumption. The framework, built over Prescient (an open-source package for solving production cost models), is applied to the RTS-GMLC dataset, an open-source dataset that is representative of the southwest U.S. wholesale electricity market. The framework provides detailed bidding, market clearing, and control processes of an IES, and it can quantify how the IES interacts with the market. In this work, we use the retrofit of a wind farm with a battery storage system as an example to show the difference in the market outcomes and revenues obtained from both price-taker and multiscale optimization approaches. Our work goes beyond price-taker and deep dives into quantifying IES-market interaction in optimizing IES. This framework enables users to explore how different design and operation decisions of energy systems interact with the market and provides a more accurate evaluation than the price-taker assumption.

Chen, Xinhe↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Fluid Flow Pressure and Saturation Prediction Accuracy and Reducing Uncertainty with Committee Machine – Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) as a Case Study

Presentation at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24, 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a way to play a critical role in the global transition to a low-emission economy. Current progress is hampered by a number of factors, among which the lack of risk-informed design tools and decision support frameworks is seen as a major roadblock. Significant interest exists in using artificial intelligence to accelerate CCS site feasibility studies, as well as to facilitate the permit application process. Existing works commonly train a single deep learning model. This work investigates the feasibility of using a conventional ensemble learning (committee machine) technique to further improve prediction accuracy. Ensemble-based algorithms generally improve over individual base learners in terms of robustness and accuracy. Deep ensembles, however, are time-consuming to create and train. A pragmatic question is whether small-sized ensembles may lead to prediction improvement. Here we evaluated the efficacy of an ensemble learning technique using the latent spectral model (LSM), an efficient deep neural operator algorithm, as base learners. Preliminary results, obtained using the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) carbon sequestration data/model, show that small-sized ensembles can improve prediction over the base learners, achieving prediction accuracy of ~1.6 psi root mean square error (RMSE) on pressure (relative the average reservoir pressure of 3150 psi), and less than 1.3% for saturation.

Sun, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing computational times for simulations when using PBPK model template and stand-alone implementations of PBPK models

Introduction We previously developed a PBPK model template that consists of a single model “superstructure” with equations and logic found in many physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. Using the template, one can implement PBPK models with different combinations of structures and features. Methods To identify factors that influence computational time required for PBPK model simulations, we conducted timing experiments using various implementations of PBPK models for dichloromethane and chloroform, including template and stand-alone implementations, and simulating four different exposure scenarios. For each experiment, we measured the required computational time and evaluated the impacts of including various model features (e.g., number of output variables calculated) and incorporating various design choices (e.g., different methods for estimating blood concentrations). Results We observed that model implementations that treat body weight and dependent quantities as constant (fixed) parameters can result in a 30% time savings compared with options that treat body weight and dependent quantities as time-varying. We also observed that decreasing the number of state variables by 36% in our PBPK model template led to a decrease of 20–35% in computational time. Other factors, such as the number of output variables, the method for implementing conditional statements, and the method for estimating blood concentrations, did not have large impacts on simulation time. In general, simulations with PBPK model template implementations of models required more time than simulations with stand-alone implementations, but the flexibility and (human) time savings in preparing and reviewing a model implemented using the PBPK model template may justify the increases in computational time requirements. Conclusion Our findings concerning how PBPK model design and implementation decisions impact computational speed can benefit anyone seeking to develop, improve, or apply a PBPK model, with or without the PBPK model template.

Bernstein, Amanda S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of carbon capture at cellulosic biorefineries

The large-scale production of cellulosic biofuels would involve spatially distributed systems including biomass fields, logistics networks and biorefineries. Better understanding of the interactions between landscape-related decisions and the design of biorefineries with carbon capture and storage (CCS) in a supply chain context is needed to enable efficient systems. Here we analyse the cost and greenhouse gas mitigation potential for cellulosic biofuel supply chains in the US Midwest using realistic spatially explicit land availability and crop productivity data and consider fuel conversion technologies with detailed CCS design for their associated CO2 streams.

carbon capture and storage (CCS)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Fluid Flow Pressure and Saturation Prediction Accuracy and Reducing Uncertainty with Committee Machine – Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) as a Case Study

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24, 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a way to play a critical role in the global transition to a low-emission economy. Current progress is hampered by a number of factors, among which the lack of risk-informed design tools and decision support frameworks is seen as a major roadblock. Significant interest exists in using artificial intelligence to accelerate CCS site feasibility studies, as well as to facilitate the permit application process. Existing works commonly train a single deep learning model. This work investigates the feasibility of using a conventional ensemble learning (committee machine) technique to further improve prediction accuracy. Ensemble-based algorithms generally improve over individual base learners in terms of robustness and accuracy. Deep ensembles, however, are time-consuming to create and train. A pragmatic question is whether small-sized ensembles may lead to prediction improvement. Here we evaluated the efficacy of an ensemble learning technique using the latent spectral model (LSM), an efficient deep neural operator algorithm, as base learners. Preliminary results, obtained using the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) carbon sequestration data/model, show that small-sized ensembles can improve prediction over the base learners, achieving prediction accuracy of ~1.6 psi root mean square error (RMSE) on pressure (relative the average reservoir pressure of 3150 psi), and less than 1.3% for saturation.

Sun, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2025

Designing robust energy policy packages under deep uncertainty: A multi-metric decision support framework

The complexity of transitioning to sustainable energy systems requires policy frameworks capable of balancing multiple objectives while addressing deep uncertainty. However, existing approaches often lack systematic methods to identify combinations of policy levers that remain effective across a wide range of uncertain futures. This paper presents a novel decision support framework that guides the selection of robust policy packages based on their performance across multiple objectives under uncertainty. Our method leverages a large ensemble of scenarios and applies scenario discovery techniques to identify influential policy levers. Here, we introduce new indicators to assess the robustness of policies by evaluating their ability to mitigate adverse outcomes across metrics. These indicators support an iterative process to build a robust policy package. Finally, we map the technological and energy pathways associated with the robust policy package by leveraging an energy system optimization model. We illustrate the application of this framework to the Spanish energy system, providing insights into how specific combinations of policy levers shape decarbonization pathways under uncertainty.

Decision-support method↗
DOE OSTI2025

ARCADE Analysis Methods & Validation Pathway

The Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment (ARCADE) provides an automated analysis system which supports risk-informed performance based (RIPB) evaluations of nuclear control systems. Every possible cyber threat which could lead to consequence is identified by simulating the unsafe control action sequences which transform digital harm into physical harm. Eliminating the simulation of complex digital cyber attack chains cuts out unnecessary computational overhead and focuses directly on the physics of cyber-physical attacks. This focus enables designers to make informed decisions which can entirely eliminate categories of cyber threats against advanced reactors through the physical nature of the plant design. This narrowing of cyber threat against nuclear power plants through the physics of the system is intended to make any remaining threat management and cost efficient. This is the goal of the Tiered Cyber Analysis (TCA) outlined in NRC Draft Regulation Guide (RG) 5.96, which provides a RIPB cybersecurity approach for new reactors. ARCADE has been custom developed to meet the demands of the rigorous analysis required in Tier 1 of the TCA, which forms the foundation of the TCA process. Currently, ARCADE is still under development, but has made significant leaps in capability. A pilot analysis on the opensource Asherah simulator was performed which demonstrated key functionality goals. The next stage of ARCADE development involves improvements to the applications which support the analysis system, and enabling the analysis system to utilize the full suite of unsafe control action simulations. Since the analysis method’s core functions are complete, validation of the analysis method will be started concurrent to the next development stages. The automated analysis ARCADE will provide can radically change the cybersecurity design process for advanced reactors, reducing the cost of security implementation while enhancing cyber resilience. The pathway for ARCADE’s development to this goal has become much clearer. The majority of technical hurdles have been cleared, and the remaining development needs have been solidified. ARCADE is now capable of assisting the advanced reactor design process and directly support advanced reactor industry RIPB practices.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Technoeconomic Studies for the Rorex Creek Pumped Storage Hydro Project: An Evaluation of New Pumped Storage Hydro in the Tennessee Valley Authority System

This report evaluates the economic viability of the proposed 1,200 MW, 23,365 MWh Rorex Creek Pumped Storage Hydro (PSH) plant that would be located near Pisgah, Alabama. In addressing this question, this study has developed processes, models and data that better value PSH from a utility perspective, more specifically a vertically integrated utility, enabling optimal PSH design and deployment. This study is designed to enhance TVA’s toolset in making PSH investment decisions and contribute to the design of a more cost-effective, stable future grid. These techniques can then be applied to a broader range of assets and utilities.

Cohen, Stuart↗