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Imaging the Complex Geometry of a Magma Reservoir Using Fem-Based Linear Inverse Modeling of InSAR Data: Application to Rabaul Caldera, Papua New Guinea

We test an innovative inversion scheme using Green’s functions from an array of pressure sources embedded in finite-element method (FEM) models to image, without assuming an a-priori geometry, the composite and complex shape of a volcano deformation source. We invert interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data to estimate the pressurization and shape of the magma reservoir of Rabaul caldera, Papua New Guinea. The results image the extended shallow magmatic system responsible for a broad and long-term subsidence of the caldera between 2007 February and 2010 December. Elastic FEM solutions are integrated into the regularized linear inversion of InSAR data of volcano surface displacements in order to obtain a 3-D image of the source of deformation. The Green’s function matrix is constructed from a library of forward line-of-sight displacement solutions for a grid of cubic elementary deformation sources. Each source is sequentially generated by removing the corresponding cubic elements from a common meshed domain and simulating the injection of a fluid mass flux into the cavity, which results in a pressurization and volumetric change of the fluid-filled cavity. The use of a single mesh for the generation of all FEM models avoids the computationally expensive process of non-linear inversion and remeshing a variable geometry domain. Without assuming an a-priori source geometry other than the configuration of the 3-D grid that generates the library of Green’s functions, the geodetic data dictate the geometry of the magma reservoir as a 3-D distribution of pressure (or flux of magma) within the source array. The inversion of InSAR data of Rabaul caldera shows a distribution of interconnected sources forming an amorphous, shallow magmatic system elongated under two opposite sides of the caldera. The marginal areas at the sides of the imaged magmatic system are the possible feeding reservoirs of the ongoing Tavurvur volcano eruption of andesitic products on the east side and of the past Vulcan volcano eruptions of more evolved materials on the west side. The interconnection and spatial distributions of sources correspond to the petrography of the volcanic products described in the literature and to the dynamics of the single and twin eruptions that characterize the caldera. The ability to image the complex geometry of deformation sources in both space and time can improve our ability to monitor active volcanoes, widen our understanding of the dynamics of active volcanic systems and improve the predictions of eruptions.

Inverse theory

The Plant Water Management Experiments: Soil

A simple means of watering plants in the low-g environment aboard orbiting spacecraft is not obvious. Since the beginning of spaceflight, numerous approaches have been pursued to water plants that seek to maximize plant viability and system reliability, while minimizing crew time and system complexity. We are not there yet. The Plant Water Management (PWM) Soil experiments seek to apply recent advances in low-g capillary fluidics phenomena to the challenges faced by plant growth operations aboard spacecraft. The primary challenge is to establish earth-like flows minimizing low-g specific adaptations required of the plants. This is difficult due to the ever-present fluid physics challenges of poorly-wetting multiphase inertial-visco-capillary flows in geometrically complex conduits and containers. In this paper, we present recent flight results for the PWM Soil experiments where arcillite ‘soil reservoirs’ are arranged in a non-wetting host soil that serves as an O2-breathing wetting barrier. In this way, a largely terrestrial water-soil environment is mimicked where, as liquid is evapo-transpired through the growing plant foliage, the effective water table passively ‘falls’ reducing viscous lengths and increasing water uptake for the plant. We present data from 6 days of 24-7 experiments on the ISS testing 3 different plant root models. We also present and correlate a capillary flow model which captures the primary features of the flow. Our summary is valued for the assessment of current and future low-g plant watering systems employing soil media.

microgravity

Intelligent Planning and Scheduling for Controlled Life Support Systems

Planning in Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) requires special look ahead capabilities due to the complex and long-term dynamic behavior of biological systems. This project characterizes the behavior of CELSS, identifies the requirements of intelligent planning systems for CELSS, proposes the decomposition of the planning task into short-term and long-term planning, and studies the crop scheduling problem as an initial approach to long-term planning. CELSS is studied in the realm of Chaos. The amount of biomass in the system is modeled using a bounded quadratic iterator. The results suggests that closed ecological systems can exhibit periodic behavior when imposed external or artificial control. The main characteristics of CELSS from the planning and scheduling perspective are discussed and requirements for planning systems are given. Crop scheduling problem is identified as an important component of the required long-term lookahead capabilities of a CELSS planner. The main characteristics of crop scheduling are described and a model is proposed to represent the problem. A surrogate measure of the probability of survival is developed. The measure reflects the absolute deviation of the vital reservoir levels from their nominal values. The solution space is generated using a probability distribution which captures both knowledge about the system and the current state of affairs at each decision epoch. This probability distribution is used in the context of an evolution paradigm. The concepts developed serve as the basis for the development of a simple crop scheduling tool which is used to demonstrate its usefulness in the design and operation of CELSS.

Leon, V. Jorge

Three-Gorge Reservoir: A 'Controlled Experiment' for Calibration/Validation of Time-Variable Gravity Signals Detected from Space

With the advances of measurements, modern space geodesy has become a new type of remote sensing for the Earth dynamics, especially for mass transports in the geophysical fluids on large spatial scales. A case in point is the space gravity mission GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) which has been in orbit collecting gravity data since early 2002. The data promise to be able to detect changes of water mass equivalent to sub-cm thickness on spatial scale of several hundred km every month or so. China s Three-Gorge Reservoir has already started the process of water impoundment in phases. By 2009,40 km3 of water will be stored behind one of the world s highest dams and spanning a section of middle Yangtze River about 600 km in length. For the GRACE observations, the Three-Gorge Reservoir would represent a geophysical controlled experiment , one that offers a unique opportunity to do detailed geophysical studies. -- Assuming a complete documentation of the water level and history of the water impoundment process and aided with a continual monitoring of the lithospheric loading response (such as in area gravity and deformation), one has at hand basically a classical forwardinverse modeling problem of surface loading, where the input and certain output are known. The invisible portion of the impounded water, i.e. underground storage, poses either added values as an observable or a complication as an unknown to be modeled. Wang (2000) has studied the possible loading effects on a local scale; we here aim for larger spatial scales upwards from several hundred km, with emphasis on the time-variable gravity signals that can be detected by GRACE and follow-on missions. Results using the Green s function approach on the PREM elastic Earth model indicate the geoid height variations reaching several millimeters on wavelengths of about a thousand kilometers. The corresponding vertical deformations have amplitude of a few centimeters. In terms of long-wavelength spherical harmonics, the induced geoid height variations are very close to the accuracy of GRACE- recoverable gravity field, while the low-degree (2 to 5) harmonics should be detectable. With a large regional time-variable gravity signal, the Three-Gorge experiment can serve as a useful calibration/verification for GRACE (including the elastic loading effects), and future gravity missions (especially for visco-elastic yielding as well as underground water variations).

Chao, Benjamin F.

Future of the North American Carbon Cycle: Chapter - 19

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, primarily due to fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, are expected to continue to drive changes in both climate and the terrestrial and ocean carbon cycles. Over the past two-to-three decades, there has been considerable effort to understand how terrestrial and oceanic systems behave (in response to rising atmospheric CO2 and changing climate conditions), quantify the dynamics of system responses to environmental change, and project how the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycle will interact with, and influence, future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate. In this presentation, we will summarize key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and drivers and associated consequences of these changes, as reported in Chapter 19 of the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). The findings not only capture projections of emissions from fossil fuel and changes in land cover and land use, but also highlight the decline in future carbon uptake capacity of North American carbon reservoirs and soil carbon losses from the Northern high-latitudes. Such a discussion of future carbon cycle changes is new in SOCCR-2, yet timely. It underlines the progress made since the release of the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-1) in 2007 in identifying the vulnerability of key carbon pools and their co-evolution with changing climatic conditions. We will also discuss key knowledge gaps and outline a set of future research priorities, including both monitoring and modeling activities, that are necessary to improve projections of future changes to the North American carbon cycle and associated adaptation and resource-management decisions.

North America

Observations of stratospheric hydrogen fluoride by halogen occultation experiment (HALOE)

The Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) Hydrogen Fluoride (HF) channel on the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) is providing the first global measurements of stratospheric HF, the dominant flourine reservoir in the atmosphere. This paper describes the latitudinal and seasonal variations of HALOE-observed HF in terms of vertical profiles, altitude/latitude cross sections, and column abundances. The HF global distribution shows a 'tracerlike' structure and its column amount increases with latitude, in agreement with previous aircraft measurements of the HF column amount. A comparison between the HALOE HF column above 20 km and the ATMOS 1985 measurements is used to estimate the annual rate of increase of stratospheric HF. Exponential rates of 4.9-6.6%/yr and linear growth rates of 6-8.6%/yr in 1985 and 4.3-5.5%/yr in 1992-1993 are found. HALOE HF measurements during the 1993 Antarctic spring are briefly described. This species behaves like a conserved tracer and its distribution shows an area of enhanced mixing ratios correlated with the polar vortex that has a clear latitude boundary. Finally, simulated HF distributions by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) two-dimensional model are used to compare with HALOE observations of HF. Reasonable agreements in the global structure and the absolute amount of HF are found. The differences between the model and the observed results indicate the need for improving treatment of atmospheric dynamics and fluorine-related chemical parameters in the model simulations.

Luo, M.

Identification and Control of Aircrafts using Multiple Models and Adaptive Critics

We compared two possible implementations of local linear models for control: one approach is based on a self-organizing map (SOM) to cluster the dynamics followed by a set of linear models operating at each cluster. Therefore the gating function is hard (a single local model will represent the regional dynamics). This simplifies the controller design since there is a one to one mapping between controllers and local models. The second approach uses a soft gate using a probabilistic framework based on a Gaussian Mixture Model (also called a dynamic mixture of experts). In this approach several models may be active at a given time, we can expect a smaller number of models, but the controller design is more involved, with potentially better noise rejection characteristics. Our experiments showed that the SOM provides overall best performance in high SNRs, but the performance degrades faster than with the GMM for the same noise conditions. The SOM approach required about an order of magnitude more models than the GMM, so in terms of implementation cost, the GMM is preferable. The design of the SOM is straight forward, while the design of the GMM controllers, although still reasonable, is more involved and needs more care in the selection of the parameters. Either one of these locally linear approaches outperform global nonlinear controllers based on neural networks, such as the time delay neural network (TDNN). Therefore, in essence the local model approach warrants practical implementations. In order to call the attention of the control community for this design methodology we extended successfully the multiple model approach to PID controllers (still today the most widely used control scheme in the industry), and wrote a paper on this subject. The echo state network (ESN) is a recurrent neural network with the special characteristics that only the output parameters are trained. The recurrent connections are preset according to the problem domain and are fixed. In a nutshell, the states of the reservoir of recurrent processing elements implement a projection space, where the desired response is optimally projected. This architecture trades training efficiency by a large increase in the dimension of the recurrent layer. However, the power of the recurrent neural networks can be brought to bear on practical difficult problems. Our goal was to implement an adaptive critic architecture implementing Bellman s approach to optimal control. However, we could only characterize the ESN performance as a critic in value function evaluation, which is just one of the pieces of the overall adaptive critic controller. The results were very convincing, and the simplicity of the implementation was unparalleled.

Principe, Jose C.

Water Storage Trends in High Mountain Asia

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) in High Mountain Asia (HMA) could have major societal impacts, as the region’s large reservoirs of glaciers, snow, and groundwater provide a freshwater source to more than one billion people. We seek to quantify and close the budget of secular changes in TWS over the span of the GRACE satellite mission (2003–2016). To assess the TWS trend budget we consider a new high-resolution mass trend product determined directly from GRACE L1B data, glacier mass balance derived from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), groundwater variability determined from confined and unconfined well observations, and terrestrial water budget estimates from a suite of land surface model simulations with the NASA Land Information System (LIS). This effort is successful at closing the aggregated TWS trend budget over the entire HMA region, the glaciated portion of HMA, and the Indus and Ganges basins, where the full-region trends are primarily due to the glacier mass balance and groundwater signals. Additionally, we investigate the closure of TWS trends at individual 1-arc-degree mascons (area ≈12,000 km2); a significant improvement in spatial resolution over previous analyses of GRACE-derived trends. This mascon-level analysis reveals locations where the TWS trends are well-explained by the independent datasets, as well as regions where they are not; identifying specific geographic areas where additional data and model improvements are needed. The accurate characterization of total TWS trends and its components presented here is critical to understanding the complex dynamics of the region, and is a necessary step toward projecting future water mass changes in HMA.

Bryant D Loomis

A climatology of stratospheric aerosol

A global climatology of stratospheric aerosol is created by combining nearly a decade (1979-1981 and 1984-1990) of contemporaneous observations from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE I and II) and Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM II) instruments. One goal of this work is to provide a representative distribution of the aerosol layer for use in radiative and chemical modeling. A table of decadal average 1 micron extinction values is included, extending from the tropopause to 35 km and 80 deg S to 85 deg N, which allows estimation of surface area density. We find that the aerosol layer is distinctly volcanic in nature and suggest that the decadal average is a more useful estimate of future aerosol loading than a 'background' loading, which is never clearly achieved during the data record. This climatology lends insight into the general circulation of the stratosphere. Latitude - altitude sections of extinction radio at 1 micron are shown, average by decade, season, and phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). A tropical reservoir region is diagnosed, with an 'upper' and a 'lower' transport regime. In the tropics above 22 km (upper regime), enhanced lofting occurs in the summer, with suppressed lofting or eddy dilution in the winter. In the extratropics within two scale heights of the tropopause (lower regime), poleward and downward transport is most robust during winter, especially in the northern hemisphere. The transport patterns persist into the subsequent equinoctial season. Ascent associated with QBO easterly shear favors detrainment in the upper regime, while relative descent and poleward spreading during QBO westerly shear favors detrainment in the lower regime. Extinction radio differences between the winter-spring and summer-fall hemispheres, and differences between the two phases of the QBO, are typically 20-50%. Dynamical implications of the aerosol distributions are explored, with focus on interhemispheric differences, strong subtropical gradients, and the pronounced annual cycle.

Hitchman, Matthew H.

Depth and Distribution of CO2 Snow on Mars

The dynamic role of volatiles on the surface of Mars has been a subject of longstanding interest. In the pre-Viking era, much of the debate was necessarily addressed by theoretical considerations. A particularly influential treatment by Leighton and Murray put forth a simple model relying on solar energy balance, and led to the conclusion that the most prominent volatile exchanging with the atmosphere over seasonal cycles is carbon dioxide. Their model suggested that due to this exchange, atmospheric CO2 partial pressure is regulated by polar ice. While current thinking attributes a larger role to H2O ice than did the occasional thin polar coating this model predicted, the CO2 cycle appears to be essentially correct. There are a number of observational constraints on the seasonal exchange of surface volatiles with the atmosphere. The growth and retreat of polar CO2 frost is visible from Earth-based telescopes and from spacecraft in Mars orbit, both at visible wavelengths and in thermal IR properties of the surface. Recently, variations in Gamma ray and neutron fluxes have also been used to infer integrated changes in CO2 mass on the surface. Measurements made by Viking's Mars Atmospheric Water Detector experiment were sensitive to atmospheric H2O vapor abundance. Surface condensates and their transient nature were detected by the Viking landers. The study here is motivated by recent data collected by the Mars Global Surveyor, affording the opportunity to not only detect the lateral distribution of volatiles, but also to constrain the variable volumes of the reservoirs. We elaborate on a technique first employed by Smith et al. By examining averages of a large number of topographic measurements collected by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA), that study showed that the zonal pattern of deposition and sublimation of CO2 can be determined. In their first approach, reference surfaces were fit to all measurements in narrow latitude annuli, and the time dependent variations about those mean surfaces were examined. In their second approach, height measurements from pairs of tracks that cross on the surface were interpolated and differenced, forming a set of crossover residuals. These residuals were then examined as a function of time and latitude. The initial studies averaged over longitude to maximize signal and minimize noise in order to isolate the expected small signal. In this follow-up study we now attempt to extract the elevation change pattern also as a function of longitude, and we focus on the crossover approach.

Aharonson, Oded

Design of a variable area diffuser for a 15-inch Mach 6 open-jet tunnel

The Langley 15-inch Mach 6 High Temperature Tunnel was recently converted from a Mach 10 Hypersonic Flow Apparatus. This conversion was effected to improve the capability of testing in Mach 6 air at relatively high reservoir temperatures not previously possible at Langley. Elevated temperatures allow the matching of the Mach numbers, Reynolds numbers, and ratio of wall-to-adiabatic-wall temperatures (TW/Taw) between this and the Langley 20-inch Mach 6 CF4 Tunnel. This ratio is also matched for Langley's 31-inch Mach 10 Tunnel and is an important parameter useful in the simulation of slender bodies such as National Aerospace Plane (NASP) configurations currently being studied. Having established the nozzle's operating characteristics, the decision was made to install another test section to provide model injection capability. This test section is an open-jet type, with an injection system capable of injecting a model from retracted position to nozzle centerline between 0.5 and 2 seconds. Preliminary calibrations with the new test section resulted in Tunnel blockage. This blockage phenomenon was eliminated when the conical center body in the diffuser was replaced. The issue then, is to provide a new and more efficient variable area diffuser configuration with the capability to withstand testing of larger models without sending the Tunnel into an unstart condition. Use of the 1-dimensional steady flow equation with due regard to friction and heat transfer was employed to estimate the required area ratios (exit area / throat area) in a variable area diffuser. Correlations between diffuser exit Mach number and area ratios, relative to the stagnation pressure ratios and diffuser inlet Mach number were derived. From these correlations, one can set upper and lower operating pressures and temperatures for a given diffuser throat area. In addition, they will provide appropriate input conditions for the full 3-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code for further simulation studies.

Loney, Norman W.

Experimental Demonstration and System Analysis for Plasmonic Force Propulsion

This project developed a higher-fidelity model of a recently envisioned small spacecraft propulsion system for precision pointing and proximity control. Plasmonic force propulsion harnesses solar light focused onto plasmon reactive subwavelength nanostructures to accelerate and expel nanoparticle propellant via strong optical forces. The goal of the project was to show that plasmonic space propulsion can provide the level of proximity and attitude control envisioned for future NASA nano/picosatellite missions, a level that is better than state-of-the-art approaches. We achieved this goal by showing that plasmonic force thrusters are feasible for a range of advanced mission concepts requiring swarm formations in a deep space environment. We performed three case studies that evaluated the performance of the plasmonic force propulsion thruster in a deep space, microsatellite swarm formation. These case studies assumed the propulsion system could generate thrust at the level predicted from our Phase 1 study (1.6 μN). Through these cases we were able to analyze the concept within a mission specific context through detailed orbital dynamics calculations. Results indicate that, with the Phase 1 estimated thrust level, the approach is promising for providing attitude control to swarm formation spacecraft. Further, we achieved goals related to technology development. Specifically, we experimentally demonstrated nanoparticle acceleration due to plasmonic forces with asymmetric nanostructures excited by focused laser light. Additionally, we investigated the thrust sensitivity and nanoparticle propellant injection dependencies upon thermal effects. As a result of our study, plasmonic force propulsion is at an early TRL 3. Active research and design has been conducted analytically and in the laboratory. Furthermore, practical applications such as the three case studies have been identified for the scientific basic principles that were observed. Future efforts related to fundamental understanding of these techniques should focus on 1) developing a standalone array of asymmetric nanostructures that can effectively interact with a stream or reservoir of particles or 2) experimentally evaluate a dielectrophoretic injector for nanoparticle propellant. The main limitation discovered about plasmonic propulsion regards performance estimates significantly below the Phase 1 estimations. Specifically, original assumptions in the Phase 1 project (notably, a linear array of asymmetric nanostructures) is not a viable approach to achieving significant acceleration, high exhaust velocity, of nanoparticles. More specifically, we assumed in Phase 1 that nanoparticles would be accelerated in series by a long linear array of asymmetric nanostructures. That is, the acceleration of the nanoparticle would build and increase with the kick received by each subsequent nanostructure. This is fundamentally flawed. The potential profile of a single nanostructure is such that it prohibits this phenomenon. The potential energy associated with the plasmon-generated dielectrophoretic force is a potential well, which is good for trapping nanoparticles, but cannot provide significant acceleration of particles to expel them out and away from the nanostructure. Further, a nanoparticle expelled from the first nanostructure would need to overcome the potential barrier for entry into the next nanostructure accelerating stage. Fundamentally, this effect means that a linear array of nanostructures is not a viable accelerating structure. Correspondingly then, acceleration can, or should, only be provided by one nanostructure, and the net acceleration and thrust force of a single nanostructure is small (~cm/s exhaust velocities, sub-nN level thrust vs. the 100’s m/s, μN originally envisioned). While our experiments demonstrated acceleration and manipulation of a nanoparticle using laser light in aqueous environment, the achievable energy and momentum addition to the nanoparticle from a single nanostructure stage is too low for useful propulsion. In terms of thrust prediction, the estimated thrust of 1.6 μN in Phase 1 is reduced to a few nN of thrust with this new insight and understanding of the concept. This thrust level is too small to achieve attitude control of swarms as originally envisioned.

Plasmonic Force

The Martian Dust Cycle: Observations and Modeling

The dust cycle is critically important for Mars' current climate system. Suspended atmospheric dust affects the radiative balance of the atmosphere, and thus greatly influences the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere. Evidence for the presence of dust in the Martian atmosphere can be traced back to yellow clouds telescopically observed as early as the early 19th century. The Mariner 9 orbiter arrived at Mars in November of 1971 to find a planet completely enshrouded in airborne dust. Since that time, the exchange of dust between the planet's surface and atmosphere and the role of airborne dust on Mars' weather and climate has been studied using observations and numerical models. The goal of this talk is to give an overview of the observations and to discuss the successes and challenges associated with modeling the dust cycle. Dust raising events on Mars range in size from meters to hundreds of kilometers. During some years, regional storms merge to produce hemispheric or planet encircling dust clouds that obscure the surface and raise atmospheric temperatures by tens of kelvin. The interannual variability of planet encircling dust storms is poorly understood. Although the occurrence and season of large regional and global dust storms are highly variable from one year to the next, there are many features of the dust cycle that occur year after year. A low-level dust haze is maintained during northern spring and summer, while elevated levels of atmospheric dust occur during northern autumn and winter. During years without global-scale dust storms, two peaks in total dust loading are generally observed: one peak occurs before northern winter solstice and one peak occurs after northern winter solstice. Numerical modeling studies attempting to interactively simulate the Martian dust cycle with general circulation models (GCMs) include the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Two dust lifting processes are commonly represented in these models: wind-stress lifting (i.e., saltation) and dust devil lifting. Although the predicted patterns of dust lifting and atmospheric dust loading from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are many notable differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles. For example, it is common for models to predict one peak in global dust loading near northern winter solstice due to excessive dust lifting in the Hellas basin at this season. Additionally, it is difficult for models to realistically capture the observed interannual variability in global dust storms. New avenues of dust cycle modeling research include exploring the effects of finite surface dust reservoirs and the effects of coupling the dust and water cycles on the predicted dust cycle.

Kahre, Melinda A.