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DOE OSTI2021

A combined experimental and computational analysis of failure mechanisms in open-hole cross-ply laminates under flexural loading

In this work, integrated experimental tests and computational modeling are proposed to investigate the failure mechanisms of open-hole cross-ply carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) laminated composites. In particular, we propose two effective methods, which include width-tapered double cantilever beam (WTDCB) and fixed-ratio mixed-mode end load split (FRMMELS) tests, to obtain the experimental data more reliably. We then calibrate the traction-separation laws of cohesive zone model (CZM) used among laminas of the composites by leveraging these two methods. The experimental results of fracture energy, i.e. G Ic and G Tc , obtained from WTDCB and FRMMELS tests are generally insensitive to the crack length thus requiring no effort to accurately measure the crack tip. Moreover, FRMMELS sample contains a fixed mixed-mode ratio of G IIc /G Tc depending on the width taper ratio. Examining comparisons between experimental results of FRMMELS tests and failure surface of B–K failure criterion predicted from a curve fitting, good agreement between the predictions and experimental data has been found, indicating that FRMMELS tests are an effective method to determine mixed-mode fracture criterion. In addition, a coupled experimental-computational modeling of WTDCB, edge notched flexure, and FRMMELS tests are adopted to calibrate and validate the interfacial strengths. Finally, failure mechanisms of open-hole cross-ply CFRP laminates under flexural loading have been studied systematically using experimental and multi-scale computational analyses based on the developed CZM model. The initiation and propagation of delamination, the failure of laminated layers as well as load-displacement curves predicted from computational analyses are in good agreement with what we have observed experimentally.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Manufacturing and characterization of continuous fiber-reinforced thermoplastic tape overmolded long fiber thermoplastic

Light-weight construction, design freedom, integration of functions, and compelling cost element are desired by Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and their suppliers. The emergence of overmolding of continuous-discontinuous reinforcement enables design freedom and ability to tailor stiffness, strength, and damage tolerance for structural applications. In this work, long fiber thermoplastics (LFT) are overmolded with continuous fiber-reinforced thermoplastic (CFRTP) tape are combined using extrusion compression molding process to evaluate the structural performance. The CFRTP tape overmolded LFT samples were characterized using nondestructive and destructive techniques to track fiber alignment, fiber distribution, manufacturing defects, interfacial bonding of the tape – LFT and effect of CFRTP tape on LFT. Mode 1 fracture toughness, G 1c for tape overmolded LFT was higher by 25–30% compared to literature reported G 1c . This response was attributed to excellent fiber distribution, good fiber wetting, and absence of voids at the interface. Three-point bend test indicated that CFRTP tape overmolded LFT composites were better able to resist damage under the bending load compared to constituent LFT composite. Flexural strength of the overmolded composite was higher by 119–142%, and modulus higher by 77–65% compared to constituent LFT composite. Simulated flexural results accurately represents the mechanical behavior of composites. Here, the penetration energy of tape overmolded LFT composites determined by LVI test was in the range of 27.66–30.15 J, which is significantly higher than constituent LFT composite, 7.76 J. CFRTP tape overmolded LFT composite exhibits progressive fiber fracture, matrix cracking, and interfacial debonding failure, whereas, constituent LFT composite showed catastrophic fiber fracture.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-Based Recovery Action Analysis Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

A recovery action is defined as the action that prevents deviant conditions from producing unwanted effects. It generally indicates a kind of countermeasure performed in response to a failure of human action. The recovery actions especially play an important role in complex systems like nuclear power plants (NPPs), which consist of highly sophisticated controllers to ensure that desired performance and safety must be achieved and maintained. This is because a combination of human error and its recovery failure may be able to cause a catastrophic effect on a system. Analyzing recovery actions has been a critical part of HRA, which is a technique to evaluate human errors and provide human error probabilities (HEPs) for application in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). If recovery actions are not adequately analyzed and applied to PSA models, the PSA results may be under-estimated or be not able to reasonably account for the failure of human actions in the context of PSA. For this reason, some regulatory documents such as ASME/ANS RA-Sb-2013 by the American Society for Mechanical Engineers and the American Nuclear Society and NUREG-1792 by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission have emphasized the importance of recovery analysis within the HRA. A couple of existing HRA methods, such as the Technique for Human Error-Rate Prediction (THERP), the Cause-Based Decision Tree (CBDT), and the Korean Standard HRA (K-HRA), have respectively suggested their own approaches to the HRA recovery analysis. However, there are a couple of limitations to treating recovery actions using only the current HRA methods available. The biggest limitation is that the existing recovery analysis does not explicitly consider a variety of recovery action types and recovery sequences as they occur in actual NPPs. To handle the limitations of existing recovery analysis, this study proposes a simulation-based recovery analysis method using the Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) software. The EMRALD software is a dynamic simulation tool for PSA. It supports realistic and dynamic modeling of human actions as they would be performed at NPPs. It is also favorable to simultaneously model the specific moment at which an action is performed, the time it takes to perform the action, and the failure probability of that action. In this paper, a detailed methodology for modeling recovery actions in the simulation platform is proposed with a couple of examples. Then, outputs from the simulation are discussed as reviewing if this novel approach can complement the challenges of existing recovery analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of chemo-mechanical impacts of CO 2 sequestration on the caprock formation in Farnsworth oil field, Texas

This study evaluates the chemo-mechanical influence of injected CO 2 on the Morrow B sandstone reservoir and the upper Morrow shale caprock utilizing data from the inverted 5-spot pattern centered on Well 13-10A within the Farnsworth unit (FWU). This study also seeks to evaluate the integrity of the caprock and the long-term CO 2 storage capability of the FWU. The inverted 5-spot pattern was extracted from the field-scale model and tuned with the available field observed data before the modeling work. Two coupled numerical simulation models were utilized to continue the study. First, a coupled hydro-geochemical model was constructed to simulate the dissolution and precipitation of formation minerals by modeling three intra-aqueous and six mineral reactions. In addition, a coupled hydro-geomechanical model was constructed and employed to study the effects of stress changes on the caprock’s porosity, permeability, and ground displacement. The Mohr–Coulomb circle and failure envelope were used to determine caprock failure. In this work, the CO 2 -WAG injection is followed by the historical field-observed strategy. During the forecasting period, a Water Alternating Gas (WAG) injection ratio of 1:3 was utilized with a baseline bottom-hole pressure constraint of 5500 psi for 20 years. A post-injection period of 1000 years was simulated to monitor the CO 2 plume and its effects on the CO 2 storage reservoir and caprock integrity. The simulation results indicated that the impacts of the geochemical reactions on the porosity of the caprock were insignificant as it experienced a decrease of about 0.0003% at the end of the 1000-year post-injection monitoring. On the other hand, the maximum stress-induced porosity change was about a 1.4% increase, resulting in about 4% in permeability change. It was estimated that about 3.3% of the sequestered CO 2 in the formation interacted with the caprock. Despite these petrophysical property alterations and CO 2 interactions in the caprock, the caprock still maintained its elastic properties and was determined to be far from its failure.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Main Bearing Replacement and Damage - A Field Data Study on 15 Gigawatts of Wind Energy Capacity

This study seeks to establish a comprehensive baseline of knowledge for the replacement and damage of main bearings in wind turbines. The purpose of this report is to provide a high-level summary of the data set, methodology, and results of this work. Full technical details and an extended analysis will be made available in a future publication. We collected data on main bearing replacements and reported damage from industrial partners based in Europe and the United States. In total, we obtained data for 167 wind power plants, with a combined capacity of 15.3 gigawatts (GW). Most of the data set was comprised of land-based, three-point mount, spherical roller bearings. Within this data set were 689 instances of main bearing replacement. Analysis was undertaken in two parts: first, a statistical analysis of the main bearing time-to-replacement data using survival analysis techniques; second, quantitative and qualitative analyses of the obtained damage information. Our results showed that 10% of a fixed main bearing population would be expected to have been replaced by 10.5 years. This is close to half of the 20-year design value. Fitted parametric distributions then indicated that by year 20, between 22% and 25% of main bearings are expected to have been replaced. Analysis of the damage reports revealed spalling to be the main type of damage listed. The additional presence of surface damage in the collected data indicates that at least part of the spalling cases are likely due to surface-initiated rolling contact fatigue. At this stage is not clear what proportion of spalling cases result from "wear induced", surface-initiated and subsurface-initiated rolling contact fatigue. While this work provides important insights into the current state of main bearing replacements and damage, many questions remain. An ongoing and expanding data collection and analysis effort focused on wind turbine main bearings is therefore recommended.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The influence of preexisting host rock damage on fault network localization

The transition from stable to unstable fracture propagation occurs when fractures begin to interact and link. Thus, fracture network coalescence controls how rocks and engineered structures fail. Here, to constrain the factors that influence localization in shear zones under brittle conditions, we build discrete element method models with a rough fault embedded in a shear zone. We add varying numbers of diffuse, randomly-placed weaknesses to examine the influence of diffuse damage on fracture network localization. The number of weaknesses controls the localization behavior of the fault network and the final fault geometry. We quantify localization using the Gini coefficient of the fracture volume, which measures the nonuniformity in a population. Each model generally increases in localization toward failure. However, models with more diffuse damage experience delocalization phases that are superimposed on the overall trend of increasing localization. The observed link between delocalization and host rock damage may help explain the varying localization of low magnitude seismicity in southern California. Models with more diffuse damage produce more complex fault geometries comprised of several parallel strands of wing cracks. The propagation of these wing cracks reduces the shear stress acting on the model boundaries, indicating that this fracture development increases the mechanical efficiency of the system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Compound flood simulations indicate rising public exposure to sewage-contaminated waters in Waikīkī, Hawai‘i

Waikīkī, Hawai‘i serves as a valuable case study for flood vulnerability due to its low elevation, present-day exposure to multiple flood sources, and role as the state’s economic engine. This study applies the high-resolution, open-source WRF-Hydro-CUFA (Coastal Urban Flood Application) model to simulate compound flood interactions among pluvial, fluvial, coastal, storm drain-driven, and subsurface processes, and to evaluate how flood characteristics in Waikīkī evolve under projected sea-level rise (SLR). Simulated water levels in an estuarine drainage canal, serving as the primary outlet for gravity-flow drainage from Waikīkī, show strong agreement with observations (r ≥ 0.935, R 2 ≥ 0.874), accurately reproducing flooding observed during recent 5-year and 50-year storm events. Simulations incorporating SLR demonstrate a shift in dominant flood drivers as sea levels rise. In addition, results identify critical thresholds at which elevated estuarine tailwater conditions cause widespread drainage backflow, eventually occurring in the absence of rainfall. These findings suggest that tidally driven flooding will progressively dominate over rainfall-driven events, increasing public exposure to highly contaminated canal and groundwater sources. The results underscore the urgent need to integrate water quality issues and drainage failure into coastal flood management strategies for low-lying urban environments, particularly those reliant on polluted estuarine waterways for stormwater management.

Compound flooding↗

DOE OSTI2020

Geometric and Material Variability Influences Stress States Relevant to Coastal Permafrost Bluff Failure

Scientific knowledge and engineering tools for predicting coastal erosion are largely confined to temperate climate zones that are dominated by non-cohesive sediments. The pattern of erosion exhibited by the ice-bonded permafrost bluffs in Arctic Alaska, however, is not well-explained by these tools. Investigation of the oceanographic, thermal, and mechanical processes that are relevant to permafrost bluff failure along Arctic coastlines is needed. We conducted physics-based numerical simulations of mechanical response that focus on the impact of geometric and material variability on permafrost bluff stress states for a coastal setting in Arctic Alaska that is prone to toppling mode block failure. Our three-dimensional geomechanical boundary-value problems output static realizations of compressive and tensile stresses. We use these results to quantify variability in the loci of potential instability. We observe that niche dimension affects the location and magnitude of the simulated maximum tensile stress more strongly than the bluff height, ice wedge polygon size, ice wedge geometry, bulk density, Young's Modulus, and Poisson's Ratio. Our simulations indicate that variations in niche dimension can produce radically different potential failure areas and that even relatively shallow vertical cracks can concentrate displacement within ice-bonded permafrost bluffs. These findings suggest that stability assessment approaches, for which the geometry of the failure plane is delineated a priori, may not be ideal for coastlines similar to our study area and could hamper predictions of erosion rates and nearshore sediment/biogeochemical loading.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Continuous electrocoagulation-membrane distillation unit for treating hydraulic fracturing produced water

Hydraulic fracturing oil and gas produced water is frequently highly impaired. While it is often deep well injected, there is great interest in treating this water for beneficial uses. Given the complexity of these produced waters, multiple unit operations are necessary. Electrocoagulation has been considered as a promising pretreatment technology. Here electrocoagulation is considered as a pretreatment prior to membrane distillation. The focus of this work is on understanding the electrocoagulation process in order to design an integrated unit operation. Electrocoagulation is used to remove organic compounds that will foul the membrane leading to membrane failure during membrane distillation. Using aluminum or iron electrodes, half-cell reactions in the electrocoagulation cell and electrode potentials have been calculated. Electrocoagulation was conducted using a continuous electrocoagulation reactor with actual produced water using aluminum, iron or mixed aluminum and iron electrodes. Here, the results obtained here indicate that electrocoagulation can obtain good removal efficiency of total organic carbon (TOC) by using different reaction conditions. Removal of organic compounds is essential to minimize fouling during membrane distillation. Further the performance of the electrocoagulation process depends strongly on the quality of the feed water. Insoluble species were more effectively coagulated than dissolved organic species. Continuous electrocoagulation shows great potential as a scalable unit operation for pretreating hydraulic fracturing produced water.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Unveiling the origins of work-hardening enhancement and mechanical instability in laser shock peened titanium

Laser shock-peening (LSP) produces complex gradients in microstructures and residual stresses, which enables fabrication of metallic engineering components with superior mechanical properties. In this work, we use non-destructive and spatially resolved high-energy X-ray diffraction (HE-XRD) to investigate the influences of LSP on microstructure, surface topography, and residual stress for high purity titanium plates. LSP is found to produce large compressive in-plane residual stresses near the peened surface which monotonically decay to zero about 2.5 mm below the surface. These properties were also tracked during in-situ tensile loading, allowing stress partitioning and work-hardening rates to be measured as a function of depth. The surface region is found to have the highest work-hardening rate and remain mechanically stable up to sample failure. In addition, a crystal rigid rotation along a transversal axis of about 27 & nbsp; was observed at large applied strain near the surface region, which is attributed to the formation of denser dispersed shear bands. Furthermore, a sudden drop in tensile stress was observed at a depth of similar to 160 mu m from the LSP surface, indicating the formation of a localized mechanical instability zone (LMIZ). The origin of this LMIZ could be attributed to the increase in shear stress induced by a load transfer from LSP surface due to the formation of denser dispersed shear bands. These observations indicate a localized transition in deformation behavior has occurred from dispersed shear banding to LMIZ and homogeneous deformation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

HEPA Filter Age Evaluation Report

In 2020, PNNL completed a literature search for high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter age information. HEPA filters are used in many operations to remove particulate matter from effluent exhaust streams. They are thought to degrade over time both during proper storage and during normal operational service; however, the rate at which the filters degrade remains unknown. This brings into question if age is an adequate indicator of HEPA filter performance. Data from six previous reports were obtained from the literature search and combined to create a data set of 1600 operating filters. Filter usage was identified from multiple facilities. The various types of filters (e.g., axial flow, self-contained, and standard 24 x 24 x 11.5 inches; and both separator and separatorless) reported were constructed to the requirements Section FC (HEPA Filters) or Section FK (Special HEPA Filters) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers AG-1 code. Filters were presumed to have continuously met the operational criteria and in particular passed both annual efficiency tests and annual DP measurements. The environmental conditions within the exhaust system were also assumed adequate for long-term filter operation. The data, by the nature of the reports, excludes rejected filters from quality assurance evaluations, intake, or installation testing. The collective data set shows over half of were operating past the current 10-year Department of Energy (DOE) limit. Data was evaluated for age lifetime using a linear trendline, survival function, probability functions, and failure rate; financial impacts were also addressed. This report supports the notion that HEPA filters can operate safely and efficiently under proper maintenance well past the 10-year lifetime established by DOE. Using the results of the four age evaluation approaches, they collectively point to the reasonableness of an operating HEPA filter lifetime of 20 years. The results are not necessarily definitive, but nevertheless, they are promising. The analysis provides reasonable assurance that when implemented using a graded approach with well-defined performance and operational requirements, extending the service life for HEPA filters beyond 10 years is low risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thermally Grown Oxide Stress in PS-PVD and EB-PVD Thermal Barrier Coatings Observed at Various Lifetimes Via Synchrotron X-ray Diffraction

The current standard application method for thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) on turbine blades for jet engines is electron-beam physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) due to its high strain tolerance and low thermal conductivity. An emerging deposition method, plasma-spray physical vapor deposition (PS-PVD), presents an opportunity for a tailorable microstructure, and non-line-of-sight deposition that is faster and less expensive. To compare the lifetime behavior of both PS-PVD and EB-PVD coatings, samples subjected to 300 and 600 thermal cycles were measured during a 1 h thermal cycle to determine the strains, which were converted to stress, in the thermally grown oxide (TGO) layer of the TBCs using synchrotron X-ray diffraction (XRD). Room temperature XRD measurements indicated among samples that PS-PVD coatings experienced greater variation in in-plane room temperature strain in the TGO after cycling than the EB-PVD coatings. In-situ XRD measurements indicated similar high-temperature strain and no spallation after 600 thermal cycles for both coatings. Further, microscopy imaging after cycling showed greater rumpling in PS-PVD coatings that led to different failure modes between the two coatings’ TGO layers. The tailorability of PS-PVD coatings allows for adjustments in the processing parameters to improve their overall performance after aging and bridge the differences between the two deposition methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Guidelines for predicting stress in cemented doublets undergoing temperature change

This work explores quick predictive methods for calculating potentially risky stresses and deflections in cemented doublets experiencing temperature change that agree well with finite element analysis. There are three failure modes of interest: cohesive failure of the adhesive, delamination (surface bond failure or debonding), and glass fracture. Adhesive theory, confirmed by finite element analysis, predicts stress singularities that complicate interpretation of the stress calculations. The presence of a stress singularity indicates the breakdown of linear elastic assumptions, but damage initiation and stress singularities are related. The authors find that geometry details near a bond edge can exacerbate or minimize damage initiation and stress concentrations. Because the interpretation of the stress results is complicated, the authors investigated predicted stresses in doublets that have been successfully tested between -40 and 85 °C. This study found that the product (∆T ∙ ∆α) should be less than 189 ppm, where ∆T is the temperature excursion and ∆α is the difference in glass coefficient of thermal expansion. If the product (∆T ∙ ∆α) is equal to or greater than 189 ppm, further analysis and testing is warranted. But the authors also show that the fabrication process can significantly influence stress failure, particularly with large diameter doublets

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of irradiation embrittlement effect on fatigue life of a pressurized-water reactor pressure vessel using the fracture toughness master curve approach

The reactor pressure vessel (RPV) is a critical structural component in pressurized-water reactors, and it is designed to withstand extreme conditions, such as high pressures, elevated temperatures, and prolonged radiation exposure. Ensuring RPV integrity is essential for the safe and reliable long-term operation of nuclear power plants, especially as aging mechanisms such as fatigue and irradiation embrittlement pose increased risks. Fatigue, caused by cyclic thermal and mechanical loading, can lead to crack initiation in localized high-stress regions. Simultaneously, neutron irradiation, particularly in the beltline region, progressively reduces fracture toughness, increasing susceptibility to brittle fracture. These combined effects of fatigue and irradiation embrittlement potentially impact the RPV structural integrity, necessitating fitness-for-service assessments. This study applies the fracture toughness master curve approach to evaluate the impact of irradiation embrittlement on RPV fatigue life. A coupled thermo-mechanical stress analysis identifies critical stress locations under normal service transients, pinpointing regions most vulnerable to fatigue crack initiation and growth. Stress intensity factors for postulated flaws at these locations are calculated, enabling an assessment of fatigue life under irradiated and unirradiated conditions. The results indicate that neutron irradiation embrittlement accelerates the conditions in which a critical crack can form and lead to failure, particularly at lower temperatures. The failure occurs where reduced fracture toughness limits the material’s resistance to crack growth. Axial cracks at nozzle corners are the most life limiting without irradiation, while circumferential cracks demonstrate longer fatigue lives. The findings highlight the importance of incorporating irradiation effects into fatigue life predictions to ensure the long-term structural integrity of RPVs.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Methods for Analysis and Quantification of Power System Resilience

This paper summarizes the report prepared by an IEEE PES Task Force. Resilience is a fairly new technical concept for power systems, and it is important to precisely delineate this concept for actual applications. As a critical infrastructure, power systems have to be prepared to survive rare but extreme incidents (natural catastrophes, extreme weather events, physical/cyber-attacks, equipment failure cascades, etc.) to guarantee power supply to the electricity-dependent economy and society. Thus, resilience needs to be integrated into planning and operational assessment to design and operate adequately resilient power systems. Quantification of resilience as a key performance indicator is important, together with costs and reliability. Quantification can analyze existing power systems and identify resilience improvements in future power systems. Given that a 100% resilient system is not economic (or even technically achievable), the degree of resilience should be transparent and comprehensible. Several gaps are identified to indicate further needs for research and development.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Report on partially complete post-irradiation-examination of the INL samples

Ferritic-martensitic steels (NF616 and T91), and austenitic stainless steel 800H and its Grain Boundary Engineering (GBE)-treated version 800H-TMP (ThermoMechanical Processing) were irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and their microstructures and mechanical properties were characterized. Ferritic-martensitic steels were irradiated up to 8.16 dpa in the irradiation temperatures ranging from 241 °C to 447.5 °C. Selected 800H and 800H-TMP samples were also irradiated up to 9.12 dpa at 359°C to 431°C. Vickers hardness measurement, fractography, and microstructural characterization were performed on the selected samples in the LAMDA lab. Radiation-induced hardening of NF616 and T91 was observed in the hardness measurements which show ~37% to ~65% increases, depending on irradiation dose and irradiation temperature. Within the irradiation conditions studied in this work, samples with a higher dose had a higher hardness. All the tested alloy 800H and 800H-TMP in this work showed irradiation-hardening by ~96±7% to ~152±10%. Alloy 800HTMP tended to have slightly smaller irradiation-hardening than alloy 800H. The fractography of NF616 samples D2 (2.96 dpa at 291.5°C), D4 (5.91 dpa at 359°C), and D6 (8.16 dpa at 431°C) indicated loss of ductility with negligible necking for the sample D2, yet obvious ductile failure for samples D4 and D6. Fractography of alloy 800H samples N4 (7.27 dpa at 359°C), N5 (3.9 dpa at 451.5°C), and N6 (9.01 dpa at 431°C), and alloy 800H-TMP samples P4 (7.36 dpa at 359°C), P5 (3.95 dpa at 451.5°C), and P6 (9.12 dpa at 431°C) indicated that all samples failed in a ductile mode, with obvious necking. Dimples were observed where large Ti-containing particles were observed for the samples. TEM characterization was performed on alloy 800H (N4, N5, N6) and 800H-TMP (P4, P5 and P6). Accumulation of M23C6 precipitates at grain boundaries was observed in all samples, and the presence of Ti(C,N) precipitates at grain boundaries and in the matrix was observed in alloy 800H-TMP. M23C6 precipitates were found to have the cube-on-cube orientation relationship with the matrix. In addition, nanoscale Si-rich clusters were observed in the matrix of all samples. Atom probe tomography was conducted on the same samples, and their results are being analyzed to be integrated with the TEM results for a confident description of the clustering behavior. Due to the low irradiation temperature (up to 451.5°C), dislocation loops formed in all samples, with the density and the average size of dislocation loops in the order of 1022 – 1023 m-3 and 11.7 – 15.9 nm, respectively. The loop densities in alloy 800H were higher than that in alloy 800H-TMP under the same irradiation conditions. Further systematic data analyses, together with some complementary experiments, will be pursued for these samples to foster peer-reviewed journal article publications.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Holistic Measurement Driven Resilience: Combining Operational Fault and Failure Measurements and Fault Injection for Quantifying Fault Detection, Propagation and Impact. Final report

For HPC systems to date, application resilience to faults and failures has been accomplished by the brute- force method of checkpoint/restart, which allows an application to make forward progress in the face of system and application faults, errors, and failures independent of root cause or end result. It has remained the primary resilience mechanism because we lack a way to identify faults and anticipate consequences early enough to take meaningful mitigating action. However, checkpoint/restart implementations put a tremendous burden on system resources and on the applications themselves and is becoming less feasible at scale. Because we have not yet operated at scales at which checkpoint/restart fails to provide forward progress, despite increasing costs, vendors have had little motivation to provide the instrumentation necessary for early identification of faults and failures. However, as we move from petascale to exascale, component mean time to failure (MTTF) will render the existing techniques ineffectual and/or too expensive. Furthermore, fault recovery mechanisms such as failover and/or error correction introduce performance inconsistency. Instrumentation allowing early indication of problems and tools to enable use of such information by systems, operating systems, and applications offer an alternative, more scalable and less costly solution. In the HMDR project, we built on our experience and expertise developed and accumulated over years of research on design, monitoring, measurement, and assessment of resilient computing systems. Analysis of field data on the current and past generations of extreme-scale systems revealed several challenges that, if not addressed in increasingly larger and more complex systems, may hinder the effectiveness of future exascale computing systems. Specifically, i) file systems and interconnects in current-generation large-scale systems already operate at the margins of resiliency, including consistent performance, and may not scale to larger deployments; ii) automated, software-based failover mechanisms are frequently inadequate and can introduce wider failures, such that failures during recovery may lead to system/application failures, including system-wide outages; and iii) silent data corruption represents a critical fault mode and will require efficient detection mechanisms if next-generation applications are to take full advantage of exascale hardware. To address the above challenges, we assembled a team of world-renowned experts in resilient extreme- scale computing from the University of Illinois (Electrical and Computer Engineering, Computer Science, and NCSA), SNL, LANL, NERSC, and Cray. Our team includes representatives from centers that house many of the largest HPC resources in the world, both today and over the coming years. The team has a unique track record of research in i) system and application failure characterization based on the analysis of field data, ii) data-driven design of fault/error detection mechanisms, and iii) experimental characterization of system/application resiliency. The team includes system owners/operators who provide continuous data collection and access and ensure installation of appropriate analysis tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Energy Transition: Advanced Nuclear Needed but Address Climate Vulnerabilities Now

The term “Energy Transition” is an attempt to capture an elaborate set of activities related to the modernization and decarbonization of energy grids. Performed concurrently and often in an ad hoc manner across local, state, regional and national boundaries, it is bringing chaos to what should arguably be one of the most conservatively managed of all critical infrastructure sectors. What’s more, with climate change producing an increasing tempo of extreme events, confidence in the intended resilient and redundant structure of the electric grids is likely to ebb. Even without these climate induced stressors, the nation’s electric grid was built for an earlier century. In addition to a drive towards greater efficiency via digitization and a continuing price decline in distributed energy resources (DERs), one could argue that climate change concerns are the primary driver of the energy transition. Non-CO2 emitting generation sources like wind and solar have become an important part of the overall generation fleet, albeit ones that cannot be counted upon to provide dispatchable power. Current projections indicate deployment of even larger percentages of DERs in coming years. Until far better storage capabilities arrive, the variability of wind and solar, inconsistent performance of traditional thermal generation plants, and energy delivery failures associated with natural gas pipelines will reinforce mounting reliability concerns. This pertains to both electric transmission and distribution. The recent shuttering of nuclear power plants in Germany, Japan, the US and elsewhere are also putting more downward pressure on dispatchable generation. Russia’s attack on Ukraine has roiled energy markets worldwide and forced some countries to return to coal as a primary fuel. In view circumstances such as these, it is essential that significant changes be made to policies and planning criteria, and to the standards and code on which they are based. Given the accelerating pace of extreme weather events, this needs to occur as soon as possible.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗