Evaluating and Improving Scale-Awareness of a Convective Parameterization Closure Using Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations of Convection
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This presentation details mission-driven data science initiatives at Jefferson Lab and the Joint Institute for Advanced Computing on Environmental Studies (ACES). JLab, a U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science national laboratory, operates the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF), and is the lead institute for the new High Performance Data Facility (HPDF) Hub. The Joint Institute for ACES brings together interdisciplinary teams in health informatics, climate modeling, computer science, and physics to address environmental challenges, including flood modeling. The Hampton Roads region, particularly Norfolk and Virginia Beach, faces increasing flood risks, motivating the need for rapid, reliable, and risk-aware decision support. ACES’s flooding work has a focus on uncertainty quantification (UQ) and machine learning (ML) for coastal flood management. The work is motivated by the increasing vulnerability of communities such as Norfolk and Virginia Beach, Virginia, to frequent coastal flooding events, and the need for rapid, reliable decision support. The research develops computationally efficient ML surrogate models to forecast water levels and flooding risk. A central theme is the quantification and calibration of predictive uncertainty, especially for out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, using techniques such as Monte Carlo Dropout, Deep Ensembles, Gaussian Processes, and Deep Quantile Regression (DQR). The study demonstrates that distance-aware UQ is critical for reliable scientific AI, particularly in high-dimensional, safety-critical, and real-time applications.
Coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever) has been a known health threat in the United States (US) since the 1930s, though not all states are currently required to report disease cases. Texas, one of the non-reporting states, is an example of where both historical and contemporary scientific evidence define the region as endemic, but we don’t know disease incidence in the state. Mandating coccidioidomycosis as a reportable disease across more US states would increase disease awareness, improve clinical outcomes, and help antifungal drug and vaccine development. It would also increase our understanding of where the disease is endemic and the relationships between environmental conditions and disease cases. This is true for other nations in North and South America that are also likely endemic for coccidioidomycosis, especially Mexico. This commentary advocates for US state and territory epidemiologists to define coccidioidomycosis as a reportable disease and encourages disease surveillance in other endemic regions across North and South America in order to protect human health and reduce disease burden.
Climate change amplifies many threats to human health. Despite advances in understanding climate change dynamics and impacts, there remains a critical gap in translating scientific knowledge into equitable, and community-driven health interventions. The inaugural One Earth, One Health workshop sought to explore this gap through human-centered design exercises involving interdisciplinary researchers from climate and Earth sciences, engineering, epidemiology, microbiology, and environmental health. Although participants did not co-develop solutions with affected communities, they used stakeholder role-playing to guide ideation and lay groundwork for actionable plans. Through these methods, participants identified community needs and proposed prototype solutions to alleviate health threats exacerbated by global environmental change. Prototypes were organized around infectious diseases, extreme weather, and air quality, as illustrative themes rather than an exhaustive set of risks. Key solutions included strategies for anticipatory systems and early warning (e.g., integrating environmental signals with health data), inclusive communication and infrastructure needs for responding to extreme weather events, and integrated platforms visualizing air quality trends to support tailored, context-aware guidance beyond one-size-fits-all alerts. The workshop highlighted opportunities such as leveraging machine learning, Earth observation, and real-time surveillance to protect communities, but also noted barriers including data quality, technological redundancy, privacy, and governance challenges. Additionally, participants emphasized the need for interdisciplinary teams capable of collaborating across sectors, breaking down silos and addressing gaps in training and education. Overall, the workshop illustrates how process-driven, human-centered approaches can help surface user needs and generate testable prototype concepts, while underscoring the importance of direct community partnership for implementation.
Consumer demand for sustainably produced agricultural products is increasing. One approach that can be used to evaluate and compare product sustainability is to conduct a life cycle analysis (LCA). The term LCA is broadly used to describe a suite of analytical resources and standardized methods. Life cycle analyses are a transdisciplinary tool which can and are used by all professions but work best when conducted by teams with diverse skills and backgrounds. The objective of this paper is to provide a primer on LCAs for the agricultural community and for LCA practitioners unfamiliar with agronomy. Agricultural LCAs can differ greatly because agricultural products have multiple end uses, complex socio-economic and environmental trade-offs, and can be generated using a variety of different practices, resources, and production systems. Through worldwide agricultural marketing, intricate agronomic supply chains and support systems have been developed to produce, store, and distribute agricultural products. In many situations, the production practices are not linked to the products consumers purchase. This limitation can be partially overcome by conducting an LCA, which is a systematic summation of the multiple environmental impacts associated with the production, use, and disposal of a product. However, the large number and types of analyses can make it difficult for non-practitioners and decision-makers to use and interpret LCA results. Finally, it is important for members of the agricultural community to be aware of these analyses and how they can be used and how they affect product markets.
As large-format battery energy storage (BES) capacity increases in the United States, so will the volume of spent lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) (Bade 2019). Estimates based on a 10-year lifetime assumption found that the volume of LiBs that have reached the end of their utility for electric vehicle (EV) applications could total two million units (four million metric tons) annually by 2040 in the United States (Richa et al. 2014; Ai and Borucki 2018). Although there is currently no publicly available decommissioning or end-of-life (EoL) projection for stationary BES systems, the U.S. energy storage market is expected to grow from an annual deployment of 523 megawatts in 2013 to 7.3 gigawatts in 2025 (Wood MacKenzie and ESA 2020; Wesoff 2020). Despite potential secondary market opportunities and the potential benefits associated with the reuse/recovery of LiB material, anecdotal evidence suggests that in the United States most decommissioned LiBs from EVs are landfilled or otherwise disposed of (Steward et al. 2019; Salim et al. 2019; CPUC 2019; DTSC 2019d; NREL 2019b; Jacoby 2019; DOE 2019). The reuse of large-format LiBs is not at commercial scale and to date consists of only a handful of U.S.-led pilot projects. Similarly, less than 5% of LiBs from EVs are sent to recycling facilities in the United States (Steward et al. 2019; Jacoby 2019; America Made 2019; Patel 2017). As awareness of current practices grows, and the demand for critical LiB materials increases, U.S. industry stakeholders, regulators, and policymakers are starting to (1) consider solutions to drive and enable environmentally sustainable materials management decisions and behaviors and (2) identify barriers to a circular economy for LiBs (Figure 1). Circular economy principles (Figure 1) attempt to transition from a “take-make-consume-dispose” linear economic system to a circular system that allows for the long life, high performance, and the reuse/recovery of products and materials (Ellen MacArthur Foundation 2016). We begin this report by summarizing drivers, barriers, and enablers to a circular economy for LiBs used in mobile and stationary BES systems in the United States. We then report on our analysis of federal and state regulatory considerations that may impact the reuse/recovery and disposal of LiBs, and potential civil and criminal liabilities associated with noncompliance. We conclude by highlighting state policies and initiatives in the United States that expressly address reuse/recovery and disposal of large-format LiBs. Our results are based on legal and literature-based research and interviews with mobile and stationary BES industry stakeholders, regulators, and policymakers. While this report addresses stationary BES, as well as mobile BES, much of the information and experience with LiB decommissioning and EoL material management is derived from the increasing management of spent EV LiBs in the United States.
As PV capacity increases, owners are also decommissioning older system assets. Estimates based on a 30-year lifetime assumption found that cumulative U.S. end-of-life (EoL) PV modules could total one million metric tons (Mt) by 2030 and up to 10 million Mt by 2050 (Weckend, Wade, and Heath 2016). Beyond maintenance replacements, early retirements that are due to efficiency upgrades and extreme weather, as well as PV deployment beyond earlier expectations, would increase these projections. PV system owners must evaluate equipment management options for used modules and system components retired during maintenance activities, refurbishment, repowering and system decommissioning. PV manufacturers must also evaluate material management options from customer returns, defects, and scrap. Management options for early retired and EoL PV system material include reuse, repair for reuse, recycling-based resource recovery, storage, and disposal. Disposal of PV system material increases the burden on landfill capacity, while reuse, repair for reuse, and recycling-based resource recovery (reuse/repair/recovery) options salvage valuable materials and provide secondary market opportunities and ancillary benefits (Weckend, Wade, and Heath 2016; EPA 2019c; SWEEP 2019). PV system owners may also decide store used modules and components as spares, or in the interim before a reuse or EoL management decision is made. Despite potential secondary market opportunities and the potential benefits associated with the repair/reuse/recovery of PV system material, anecdotal evidence suggests that in the United States decommissioned PV modules are stored, landfilled or otherwise disposed of (Salim et al. 2019; CPUC 2019b; DTSC 2019b; NREL 2019a). Some modules are being disposed of in municipal nonhazardous landfills and federally regulated hazardous treatment, storage, and disposal facilities, and others are being stored in warehouses until economically viable repair/reuse/recycling becomes available (CPUC 2019b; DTSC 2019b; NREL 2019a; Libby and Shaw 2018). As awareness of current practices grows, and the demand for critical PV module material increases, U.S. industry stakeholders, regulators, and policymakers are starting to (1) consider solutions to drive and enable environmentally sustainable materials management decisions and behaviors and (2) identify barriers to a circular economy for PV system materials. Circular economy principles attempt to transition from a "take-make-consume-dispose" linear economic system to a circular system that allows for the long life, and the reuse/repair/recovery of products and materials (Ellen MacArthur Foundation 2020). We begin this report by summarizing the drivers, barriers, and enablers to a circular economy for PV system materials in the United States. We then report on our analysis of federal and state regulatory considerations that may impact the repair/reuse/recovery of PV materials, and potential civil and criminal liabilities associated with noncompliance. We then discuss state policies and initiatives in the United States that expressly address PV system decommissioning and repair/reuse/recovery of PV materials. We conclude by providing case studies of U.S. business models for the repair/reuse/recovery of PV system materials. Our results are based on legal and literature-based research and interviews with solar industry stakeholders, regulators, and policymakers.
Abstract not provided.
The apparent turbulent entrainment-mixing mechanism between clouds and surrounding air is scale-dependent; however, such scale dependence has been rarely studied, hindering development of scale-aware entrainment-mixing parameterizations. Here we extend our previous study on cumulus clouds to investigate scale dependence of entrainment-mixing processes in stratocumulus clouds during ACE-ENA and RACORO. In contrast to previous studies, two opposite scale dependencies are found: entrainment-mixing can become more homogeneous or more inhomogeneous with increasing averaging scales, which is quantified by the difference between homogeneous mixing degree at the 100 m and 10 m resolutions. A new heuristic model and two new quantities are introduced. The observations and model show that microphysical properties near and far away from droplet-free air and relative humidity of entrained air determine both the sign and strength of scale dependence, while droplet-free air fraction only affects the strength. The results shed new light on developing scale-aware parameterizations of entrainment-mixing mechanisms.
The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated how a novel, elusive, and diffuse biological threat can engender uncertainty and misinformation, and it underscored the need for flexible analytical modalities agnostic to the identity of biological material. Yet even before the pandemic, recognition of the limitations of the current, list-based approach, which focuses on known pathogens and biotoxins, and of the importance of agent-agnostic biodetection was growing within the biosecurity community. In a 2018 report on “Biodefense in the Age of Synthetic Biology,” for example, the National Academy of Sciences stated that “an overreliance on the Select Agent List is a systematic weakness affecting many aspects of the United States’ current biodefense mitigation capability”. More recently, a group of biodefense researchers proposed the identification and adoption of “bioagent-agnostic signatures (BASs)” as a way of detecting and characterizing not only existing agents but also novel ones, an approach they believe will “enable a more flexible and resilient biodefense posture”. Indeed, the future of biodetection requires us to begin developing novel analytics that can identify anomalies and/or characteristics that indicate a potential threat, whether known or unknown, without looking for a specific signature that has been identified previously. To assess potential threats more rapidly, it is critical to develop agnostic artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) systems that can be employed for real-time assessment of the nature and source of a perturbation. Such systems should be multi scale and multi-dimensional, integrating sensor data from a range of biological, chemical, and physical application spaces. Emerging deep learning (DL) models demonstrate exceptional promise for identification of discriminatory features within multi-dimensional datasets. DL models have the capacity to recognize and encode highly complex patterns in a wide range of input data modalities, including images, text, and biological/chemical/physical spectra. As such, they can execute a wide range of assessments and determinations that have traditionally required a human operator. The promise of advances in DL is apparent in the realm of human health and medicine. DL models have been validated for evaluating a variety of clinical threats to human health in a range of contexts, including infection and cancer, and they demonstrated improved performance in predicting stroke relative to human neurologists in some categories of data. Continuously evolving advances in AI/ML are expected to support more efficient evaluation of raw sequence, spectroscopy, and spectrometry data. For instance, recent advances and deployment of large language models (LLM) such as Generative Pre training Transformer (GPT) and Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) have already motivated application of these models for biological function prediction. As frameworks such as LLMs become larger and more complex in their representations, their capacity to serve as pre-trained models that can be fine-tuned for biological/biodetection purposes will similarly be amplified. While existing and emerging AI/ML have found broad applicability and use cases in the clinical sciences, development for environmental evaluation and biodetection has been limited. Functionalizing such capabilities for this purpose requires an understanding of the existing technical landscape and how the respective tools and algorithms are currently being employed. This landscape awareness then allows an assessment of the current practical capabilities of existing models and the anticipated requirements and development efforts that will be needed to adapt available algorithms for biodetection applications relevant to DHS. Leveraging expertise in biodetection, ML, and operational biodetection, the effort described in this report is comprised of a systematic landscape assessment (Subtask 2.1), comparative evaluation (Subtask 2.2), and formulation of a value proposition (Subtask 2.3) for the prospect of ML-enabled, agnostic biodetection from raw, or minimally-processed, datasets.
Wildfires are increasingly interacting with electric power systems through a two-way hazard chain: fires damage grid assets and trigger cascading outages, while grid faults can ignite new fires under hot, dry, and windy conditions. This review synthesizes the state of knowledge across five domains: (i) physical impacts of flames, heat, and smoke on lines, towers, insulators, and substations; (ii) power-infrastructure-initiated ignitions via conductor clash, high-impedance faults, and corona discharge; (iii) widespread blackouts and disproportionate societal impacts; (iv) multi-scale monitoring spanning laboratory tests, in-situ and grid-integrated sensors, and Earth observation; (v) coupled modeling that links fire behavior with grid operations; and (vi) technological and strategic mitigation pathways spanning prevention, response, and recovery. We integrate these domains into a novel 'feedback-aware' socio-technical framework. Through a longitudinal analysis (2005-2025) of global incidents, we identify that while vegetation contact remains the most frequent ignition source, aging infrastructure failure has emerged as a critical driver of catastrophic 'mega-fires'. We further identify persistent gaps, including limited interoperability of high-frequency grid and environmental data, scarce real-time data assimilation, and under-developed equity metrics for outage management. We conclude by outlining a research agenda to (1) deploy interoperable sensing architectures, (2) advance feedback-coupled fire-grid simulations, and (3) evaluate mitigation portfolios through techno-economic and fairness lenses. Recognizing wildfire-grid interactions as coupled socio-technical systems is essential for protecting infrastructure and communities and for ensuring reliable, sustainable electricity in a changing world.
Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite systems have become a crucial enabler of broadband access for maritime industries, where traditional networks are unavailable. However, the high mobility of LEO constellations and constantly changing weather conditions result in unpredictable link fluctuations, limiting the ability of maritime platforms to plan bandwidth usage proactively. To the best of our knowledge, no prior work has developed a short-term predictive model for maritime LEO connectivity using real experimental field measurements. This paper proposes a data-driven forecasting model that predicts future downlink throughput using multi-horizon RandomForest regression. The model is trained using real experimental coastal measurement data incorporating recent throughput history, network-layer indicators, and environmental variables. The proposed approach reduces mean absolute error by approximately 31% compared to a persistence baseline for 15-minute horizons. It maintains a measurable improvement at 30 minutes, despite increased stochasticity. These findings confirm that proactive bandwidth awareness is feasible on maritime platforms and can effectively support operational decisions such as adaptive streaming, routing, and resource scheduling. The performance gap between forecasting horizons also highlights the need for expanded offshore datasets to improve prediction robustness under harsher maritime environments.
Motivation: Predicting microbial gene fitness across environmental conditions remains a central challenge for predictive phenomics and autonomous experimentation. Fitness assays generate large volumes of genotype–phenotype measurements difficult to integrate with experimental metadata and biological function in a form that supports mechanistic reasoning. Knowledge graphs offer a semantic framework for unifying modalities and enabling context-aware inference. Results: We build GIMME (Graph Inference for Microbial Metabolism Exploration), a semantically grounded knowledge graph that unifies gene fitness measurements spanning 10 Pseudomonas species with experimental metadata and biological context. Media are decomposed into chemical components and experiments carry structured links to natural-language descriptions. The resulting graph supports two inference modes: (1) symbolic graph traversal to surface candidate gene–environment and gene–chemical associations, and (2) learned inference using heterogeneous graph neural networks that propagate information across neighborhoods. We formulate link regression over (gene, media, experiment) triplets, combining learned gene embeddings with pretrained LLM sourced text embeddings of node descriptions to predict gene fitness. We then augment a baseline MLP with an auxiliary message-passing encoder (GraphSAGE/GAT) that propagates information over gene–protein–function and media–chemical subgraphs, and fuse the two pathways with a gated residual connection. This approach produces strong agreement with held-out fitness measurements (GraphSAGE Pearson r 0.74) while also highlighting inference challenges in extreme-fitness regimes. We aggregate GAT edge-attention weights by relation type and layer to estimate which biological and environmental relations most influence fitness predictions. Conclusion: This work explores using knowledge graphs as “context graphs” for microbial phenotype prediction. They provide a rich substrate which enables explainable retrieval of supporting evidence, and provides a natural bridge to autonomous workflows that prioritize the next experiment.
To accomplish net-zero carbon in the built environment by 2050, we must equitably decarbonize commercial buildings, which includes reducing plug and process loads (PPLs). PPLs are plug-in or hardwired electric and gas loads that are not directly associated with major building end uses like lighting and heating, ventilating, and air conditioning. PPLs account for a growing portion of U.S. commercial building energy consumption. Although commercial building PPL strategies and technologies are available today, they have not been adopted at a level sufficient to achieve significant savings and load flexibility across the building stock. In our "Pathways to Plug and Process Load Efficiency and Control" study, we investigated why these technologies and strategies have not seen widespread adoption and identified five behavior and technology pathways to increase PPL reduction in commercial buildings. In this paper, we expand beyond identifying the pathways and discuss approaches for achieving them. We discuss the importance of collecting and sharing data and case studies on PPL energy consumption and savings from control technology implementation, including code-required measures, for increasing adoption. Centralizing case studies and data, engaging industry organizations, and promoting awareness of PPL efficiency benefits to relevant groups are also key approaches. Additionally, funding, incentives, and rebate programs play important roles in driving PPL efficiency and control adoption. Finally, we discuss integrating PPL efficiency into broader company goals, such as environmental, social and governance (ESG) strategies and green building certifications, to further drive adoption.
Structured RNA lies at the heart of many central biological processes, from gene expression to catalysis. RNA structure prediction is not yet possible due to a lack of high-quality reference data associated with organismal phenotypes that could inform RNA function. We present GARNET (Gtdb Acquired RNa with Environmental Temperatures), a new database for RNA structural and functional analysis anchored to the Genome Taxonomy Database (GTDB). GARNET links RNA sequences to experimental and predicted optimal growth temperatures of GTDB reference organisms. Using GARNET, we develop sequence- and structure-aware RNA generative models, with overlapping triplet tokenization providing optimal encoding for a GPT-like model. Leveraging hyperthermophilic RNAs in GARNET and these RNA generative models, we identify mutations in ribosomal RNA that confer increased thermostability to the Escherichia coli ribosome. The GTDB-derived data and deep learning models presented here provide a foundation for understanding the connections between RNA sequence, structure, and function.
One critical step on the path from data taking to physics analysis is calibration. For many experiments this step is both time consuming and computationally expensive. The AI Experimental Calibration and Control project seeks to address these issues, starting first with the GlueX Central Drift Chamber (CDC). We demonstrate the ability of a Gaussian Process to estimate the gain correction factor (GCF) of the GlueX CDC accurately, and also the uncertainty of this estimate. Using the estimated GCF, the developed system infers a new high voltage (HV) setting that stabilizes the GCF in the face of changing environmental conditions. This happens in near real time during data taking and produces data which are already approximately gain-calibrated, eliminating the cost of performing those calibrations which vary ±15% with fixed HV. We also demonstrate an implementation of an uncertainty aware system which exploits a key feature of a Gaussian process.
Management of the nation’s power grid over the coming decades will need to factor multiple climate-driven threats to the power system that can be stressful or even detrimental to its operations. During disasters, grid operators suffer from cognitive overload where the electric grid is severely impacted by the weather, yet grid operators have limited awareness of these factors. Meanwhile, the electric grid is facing an explosion of data coming from a variety of sources which can enable the operator to evaluate the risks and develop mitigation strategies against hazardous events. In this work, we processed heterogeneous environmental and power grid data to learn and model grid behavior caused by extreme weather events. In this study, we focused on two weather-driven hazards, hurricanes and wildfires, which were analysed for the electric grid of Texas. We the used this data to train a Reinforcement Learning (RL) agent by analysing and predicting future behaviour of the grid during those hazard events. All these parts are incorporated in one framework to have a geophysically informed power simulators that can be used to train RL agents.
Prediction and observation of water cycles at various scales involve not only patterns isolated in space and time, but also modeling of complex spatio-temporal relationships across multiple domains. For instance, evapotranspiration (ET) and leaf area indexes (LAI) are two parameters that are needed to accurately model and understand land-atmosphere processes. Accurate assessments of ET and LAI are critical for understanding hydrological processes, deforestation, crop yield, and irrigation impacts. However, ET estimates for global simulations are available at very coarse spatial resolution. They are usually derived from satellite data based on broad plant functional types (PFTs), which fail to capture fine-scale variations because of changes in vegetation type across the globe. Similarly LAI estimates have typically been derived from vegetation indices at global scales or estimated locally using physical models, both of which suffer from a range of uncertainties that impact model sensitivity. The new era of AI model development for Earth systems (ES) calls for data-driven methods that provide domain scientists with uncertainty-aware estimations of biophysical parameters such as ET and LAI in a generalizable, interpretable, and discoverable manner.