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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective

Abstract Future climate simulations feature pronounced spatial shifts in the structure of tropical rainfall. We apply a novel atmospheric energy flux analysis to diagnose late 21st century tropical rainfall shifts in a large ensemble of simulations of 21st century climate. The method reconstructs 2D spatial changes in rainfall based on horizontal shifts in the lines of zero meridional and zonal divergent energy flux, called the energy flux equator (EFE) and energy flux prime meridian (EFPM), respectively. Two main sources of future atmospheric energy flux changes, and hence rainfall shifts, are identified by the analysis: the high-latitude North Atlantic due to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that shifts tropical rainfall southwards over the greater Tropical Atlantic sector and eastern Pacific; and the eastern tropical Pacific due to a permanent El-Niño-like response that produces zonal shifts over the Maritime Continent and South America. To first order, the shifts in the EFE and EFPM mirror gross distributional changes in tropical precipitation, with a southward shift in rainfall over the tropical Atlantic, West Africa, and eastern tropical Pacific and an eastward shift over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific. When used to reconstruct future rainfall shifts in the tropical Atlantic and Sahel, the method reasonably represents the simulated meridional structure of rainfall shifts but does not do so for the zonal structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1980

Nitrous oxide measurements in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

The paper considers nitrous oxide measurements in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The concentration of N2O in the marine air showed a direct relationship to the N2O in the surface sea water, with the highest N2O mixing ratios over highly supersaturated regions; water samples were also collected down to depths of 300 m at seven hydrocast stations. The stations showed two distribution patterns for N2O concentration vs depth for the region between the surface and 300 m; two stations in the oxygen deficient region off the coast of Peru showed considerable N2O super-saturation at all depths, and results indicate that the role of N2O in the nitrogen cycle of the ocean may be more complex than previously suggested.

Pierotti, D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations

The characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over five TC basins lying within four Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains are examined for present and future climate conditions using a new ensemble of simulations completed as part of the CORDEX-CORE initiative with the regional climate model RegCM4. The simulations are conducted at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing and are driven by three CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The RegCM4 captures most features of the observed TC climatology, except for the TC intensity, which is thus statistically adjusted using a bias correction procedure to account for the effect of the coarse model resolution. The RegCM4 exhibits an improved simulation of several TC statistics compared to the driving GCMs, over most basins analyzed. In future climate conditions we find significant increases in TC frequency over the North Indian Ocean, the Northwest Pacific and Eastern Pacific regions, which are consistent with an increase in mid-tropospheric relative humidity. The North Atlantic and Australasia regions show a decrease in TC frequency, mostly associated with an increase in wind shear. We also find a consistent increase in future storm rainfall rates associated with TCs and in the frequency of the most intense TCs over most domains. Finally, our study shows robust responses often, but not always, in line with previous studies, still implying the presence of significant uncertainties in the projection of TC characteristics, which need to be addressed using large ensembles of simulations with high-resolution models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Regionality of Moist Kelvin Waves and the MJO: The Critical Role of the Background Zonal Flow

Abstract A global model with superparameterized physics is used to shed light on the observed regionality of convectively coupled Kelvin waves and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO). A series of aquaplanet simulations over zonally uniform sea‐surface temperatures is performed, in which the axisymmetric structure of the background zonal flow is altered through nudging, while maintaining a quasi‐fixed rainfall climatology. Results show that nudging at the equator to match profiles typical of the Indo‐Pacific or eastern Pacific sectors yields eastward‐moving tropical rain spectra typical of those sectors. Two different mechanistic pathways are identified as being responsible for this mean‐flow dependence, in addition to Doppler shifting effects. The first is through shifts of the Rossby wave critical line in the subtropical upper troposphere that affect the lateral forcing of Kelvin‐mode circulations at the equator by eastward and equatorward‐propagating eddies impinging on the tropics from higher latitudes. The second is through changes in the strength of the mean cyclonic shear in the lower tropical troposphere that affect the degree to which intraseasonal fluctuations in Kelvin‐mode zonal winds modulate the activity of higher‐frequency equatorial Rossby‐type eddies. In cases where the mean low‐level cyclonic shear is enhanced, the strength of this modulation, referred to as “shear‐induced eddy modulation” or SIEM, is also seen to be enhanced, such that MJO‐like modes of variability are rendered either unstable or near neutral, depending on the strength of the shear.

Tulich, S. N.↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Shortwave Cloud-SST Feedback Amplifies Multi-Decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends: Implications for Observed Cooling

Climate models struggle to produce sea surface temperature (SST) gradient trends in the tropical Pacific comparable to those seen recently in nature. Here, we find that the magnitude of the cloud-SST feedback in the subtropical Southeast Pacific is correlated across models with the magnitude of Eastern Pacific multi-decadal SST variability. A heat-budget analysis reveals coupling between cloud-radiative effects, circulation, and SST gradients in driving multi-decadal variability in the Eastern Pacific. Using this relationship and observed feedback estimates, we find that internal Eastern Pacific SST variability is underestimated in most models. Adjusting for model bias increases the likelihood of generating a cooling trend at least as large as observations in preindustrial control simulations by ~56% on average. If models underestimate climate “noise,” as our results suggest, this bias should be accounted for when attributing the relative importance of forced versus unforced changes in the climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Tropical Rainfall Distributions Determined Using TRMM Combined with other Satellite and Raingauge Information

Abstract A technique is described to use Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) combined radar/radiometer information to adjust geosynchronous infrared satellite data (the TRMM Adjusted GOES Precipitation Index, or TRMM AGPI). The AGPI is then merged with rain gauge information (mostly over land; the TRMM merged product) to provide fine- scale (1 deg latitude/longitude) pentad and monthly analyses, respectively. The TRMM merged estimates are 10% higher than those from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) when integrated over the tropical oceans (37 deg N-S) for 1998, with 20% differences noted in the most heavily raining areas. In the dry subtropics the TRMM values are smaller than the GPCP estimates. The TRMM merged-product tropical-mean estimates for 1998 are 3.3 mm/ day over ocean and 3.1 mm/ day over land and ocean combined. Regional differences are noted between the western and eastern Pacific Ocean maxima when TRMM and GPCP are compared. In the eastern Pacific rain maximum the TRMM and GPCP mean values are nearly equal, very different from the other tropical rainy areas where TRMM merged-product estimates are higher. This regional difference may indicate that TRMM is better at taking in to account the vertical structure of the rain systems and the difference in structure between the western and eastern (shallower) Pacific convection. Comparisons of these TRMM merged analysis estimates with surface data sets shows varied results; the bias is near zero when compared to western Pacific Ocean atoll raingauge data, but significantly positive compared to Kwajalein radar estimates (adjusted by rain gauges). Over land the TRMM estimates also show a significant positive bias. The inclusion of gauge information in the final merged product significantly reduces the bias over land, as expected. The monthly precipitation patterns produced by the TRMM merged data process clearly show the evolution of the ENSO tropical precipitation pattern from early 1998 (El Nino) through early 1999 (La Nina) and beyond. The El Nino minus La Nina difference map shows the eastern Pacific maximum, the maritime continent minima and other tropical and mid-latitude features. The differences in the Pacific are very similar to those detected by the GPCP analyses. However, summing the El Nino minus La Nina differences over the global tropical oceans yields divergent answers from TRMM, GPCP and other estimates. This emphasizes the need for additional validation and analysis before it is feasible to understand the relations between global precipitation anomalies and Pacific Ocean ENSO temperature changes.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Ozone precursors and ozone photochemistry over eastern North Pacific during the spring of 1984 based on the NASA GTE/CITE 1 airborne observations

Simultaneous high-resolution measurements of O3, NO, CO, dew point temperature, and UV flux obtained during the NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment Chemical Instrumentation Test and Evaluation (GTE/CITE 1) spring 1984 airborne field exercise over the eastern North Pacific Ocean are analyzed. Mid-tropospheric CO, O3, and NO mixing ratios averaged about 120 parts per billion by volume (ppbv), 50 ppbv, and 10 parts per trillion by volume (pptv), respectively. Statistical analysis of the high-resolution data indicates the existence of two ozone sources, one related to the downward transport of ozone-rich air from the upper troposphere and stratosphere, and the other to the transport of ozone-rich air from the continents. Modeling calculations based on these average levels imply that, from the surface to about 8 km, photochemical reactions probably supplied a net sink of ozone to the region overlying the eastern North Pacific Ocean during the sampling period. However, because the NO levels measured during the flights were frequently at or near the detection limit of the instruments and because the results are very sensitive to the absolute NO levels and their temporal variability, the conclusion must be considered provisional.

Chameides, W. L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Role of Seasonality and the ENSO Mode in Central and East Pacific ENSO Growth and Evolution

Abstract A cyclostationary linear inverse model (CSLIM) is used to investigate the seasonal growth of tropical Pacific Ocean El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with canonical, central Pacific (CP), or eastern Pacific (EP) sea surface temperature (SST) characteristics. Analysis shows that all types of ENSO events experience maximum growth toward final states occurring in November and December. ENSO events with EP characteristics also experience growth into May and June, but CP events do not. A single dominant “ENSO mode,” growing from an equatorial heat content anomaly into a characteristic ENSO-type SST pattern in about 9 months (consistent with the delayed/recharge oscillator model of ENSO), is essential for the predictable development of all ENSO events. Notably, its seasonality is responsible for the late-calendar-year maximum in ENSO amplification. However, this ENSO mode alone does not capture the observed growth and evolution of diverse ENSO events, which additionally involve the seasonal evolution of other nonorthogonal Floquet modes. EP event growth occurs when the ENSO mode is initially “covered up” in combination with other Floquet modes. The ENSO mode’s slow seasonal evolution allows it to emerge while the other modes rapidly evolve and/or decay, leading to strongly amplifying and more predictable EP events. CP events develop when the initial state has a substantial contribution from Floquet modes with meridional mode–like SST structures. Thus, while nearly all ENSO events involve the seasonally varying ENSO-mode dynamics, the diversity and predictability of ENSO events cannot be understood without identifying contributions from the remaining Floquet modes. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to identify structures that lead to seasonal growth of diverse types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. An important contribution from this study is that it uses an observationally constrained, empirically derived seasonal model. We find that processes affecting the evolution of diverse ENSO events are strongly seasonally dependent. ENSO events with eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) characteristics are closely related to a single “ENSO mode” that resembles theoretical models of ENSO variability. ENSO events that have central equatorial Pacific SST characteristics include contributions from additional “meridional mode” structures that evolve via different physical processes. These findings are an important step in evaluating the seasonal predictability of ENSO diversity.

Vimont, Daniel J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean T-S variations with El Nino

Temperature-Salinity (T-S) relationship variability in the pycnocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (NINO3 region, 5 degrees S ??degrees N, 150 degrees W ?? degrees W) over the last two decades is investigated using observational data and model simulation.

El Nino hydrography climate interannual variabilit↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Influence of ENSO Diversity on Future Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity by impacting environmental conditions important for TC genesis. However, the influence of future climate change on the teleconnection between ENSO and Atlantic TCs is uncertain, as climate change is expected to impact both ENSO and the mean climate state. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on a tropical channel domain to simulate 5-member ensembles of Atlantic TC seasons in historical and future climates under different ENSO conditions. Experiments were forced with idealized sea surface temperature configurations based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble representing: a monthly varying climatology, eastern Pacific El Niño, central Pacific El Niño, and La Niña. The historical simulations produced fewer Atlantic TCs during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño, consistent with observations and other modeling studies. For each ENSO state, the future simulations produced a similar teleconnection with Atlantic TCs as in the historical simulations. Specifically, La Niña continues to enhance Atlantic TC activity, and El Niño continues to suppress Atlantic TCs, with greater suppression during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño. In addition, we found a decrease in the Atlantic TC frequency in the future relative to historical regardless of ENSO state, which was associated with a future increase in northern tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear and a future decrease in the zonal tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, corresponding to a more El Niño–like mean climate state. Our results indicate that ENSO will remain useful for seasonal Atlantic TC prediction in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

Sources of variability in satellite-derived estimates of phytoplankton production in the eastern tropical Pacific

As a proxy for satellite CZCS observations and concurrent measurements of primary production rates, data from 138 stations occupied seasonally during 1967-1968 in the offshore eastern tropical Pacific were analyzed in terms of six temporal groups and our current regimes. Multiple linear regressions on column production Pt show that simulated satellite pigment is generally weakly correlated, but sometimes not correlated with Pt, and that incident irradiance, sea surface temperature, nitrate, transparency, and depths of mixed layer or nitracline assume little or no importance. After a proxy for the light-saturated chlorophyll-specific photosynthetic rate P(max) is added, the coefficient of determination ranges from 0.55 to 0.91 (median of 0.85) for the 10 cases. In stepwise multiple linear regressions the P(max) proxy is the best predictor for Pt.

Banse, Karl↗
NASA NTRS1986

Variability of the productive habitat in the eastern equatorial Pacific

It is shown that satellite ocean color data can be used to define the spatial extent of the region of enhanced biological production (the productive habitat) in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The degree of interannual variability in the areal extent of the productive habitat and in the estimated primary production of the region is determined. Frequency distributions of satellite-derived pigment concentrations are used to determine whether major changes in phytoplankton biomass have taken place from one period to the next.

Feldman, Gene Carl↗
NASA NTRS2004

On the Cause of Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean T-S Variations Associated with El Nino

The nature of observed variations in temperature-salinity (T-S) relationship between El Nino and non-El Nino years in the pycnocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (NINO3 region, 5(deg)S-5(deg)N, 150(deg)W-90(deg)W) is investigated using an ocean general circulation model. The origin of the subject water mass is identified using the adjoint of a simulated passive tracer. The higher salinity during El Nino is attributed to larger convergence of saltier water from the Southern Hemisphere and smaller convergence of fresher water from the Northern Hemisphere.

interannual variability↗
DOE OSTI2022

Maritime Aerosol and CCN Profiles Derived From Ship₋Based Measurements Over Eastern North Pacific During MAGIC

Atmospheric aerosols are widely recognized to give rise to a substantial radiative forcing to the climate by scattering and absorbing radiation and by modifying the microphysical, lifetime, and radiative properties of clouds. During the Marine ARM GPCI Investigation of Clouds (MAGIC) over the Eastern North Pacific (ENP), the ship-based measured cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration at 0.2% supersaturation (N CCN,0.2 ) and condensation nuclei concentration (N CN ) had mean values of 116.7 and 219.4 cm ⁻3 , with the highest concentrations found closest to LA due to an increase in aerosol sources. Moving westward, both N CCN,0.2 and N CN gradually decreased until stabilizing near 100 cm ⁻3 and 200 cm ⁻3 , respectively. Using the methods proposed by Ghan and Collins (2004), https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2004)021<0387:uoisdt>2.0.co;2 and Ghan et al. (2006), https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jd005752, N CCN,0.2 profiles are retrieved using the surface measured N CCN,0.2 as a constraint. For coupled conditions, correlations between the retrieved N CCN,0.2 profiles and cloud-droplet number concentration (N C ) increase from 0.26 at the surface to 0.38 near cloud base, particularly true for non-drizzling clouds. Although the correlations are lower than expected, the percentage increase (46.2%) is encouraging. Finally, the relationships between cloud breakup (CB) and the stratocumulus to cumulus transition (SCT) with environmental conditions and associated aerosols are also studied. The decreased N CN trend east of CB is mainly caused by precipitation scavenging, while the increased N CN trend west of CB is strongly associated with the increased surface wind speed and fewer drizzle events. A further study is needed using high-resolution models to simulate these events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1996

Response of Tropical Clouds to the Interannual Variation of Sea Surface Temperature

Connections between the large-scale interannual variations of clouds, deep convection, atmospheric winds. vertical thermodynamic structure, and SSTs over global tropical oceans are examined over the period July 1983 - December 1990. The SST warming associated with El Nino had a significant impact on the global tropical cloud field, although the warming itself was confined to the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. Extensive variations of the total cloud field occurred in the northeastern Indian, western and central Pacific, and western Atlantic Oceans. The changes of high and middle clouds dominated the total cloud variation in these regions. Total cloud variation was relatively weak in the eastern Pacific and the Atlantic because of the cancellation between the changes of high and low clouds. The variation of low clouds dominated the total cloud change in those areas. The destabilization of the lapse rate between 900 and 750 mb was more important for enhancing convective instability than was the change of local SSTs in the equatorial central Pacific during the 1997 El Nino. This destabilization is associated with anomalous rising motion in that region. As a result. convection and high and middle clouds increased in the equatorial central Pacific, In the subtropical Pacific, both the change of lapse rate between 900 and 750 mb associated A,ith anomalous subsidence and the decrease of boundary-layer buoyancy due to a decrease of temperature and moisture played an important role in enhancing convective stability. Consequently, convection, as well its high and middle clouds, decreased in these areas. The change ot'low clouds in the equatorial and southeastern Atlantic was correlated to both local SSTs and the SST changes in the equatorial eastern Pacific. In this area. the increase of low clouds was consistent with the sharper inversion during the 1987 El Nino, The strengthening of the inversion was not caused by a local SST change. although the local SST change appeared to he correlated to the change of low clouds. The coherence between clouds and SST tendency shows that SST tendency leads cloud variation in the equatorial Pacific. Thus, the change of clouds does not dominate the sign of SST tendency even though the cloud change was maximum during the 1987 El Nino. In some ideas of the Indian, subtropical Pacific, and North Atlantic Oceans, cloud change leads SST tendency. Cloud change might affect SST tendency in these regions.

Fu, Rong↗
NASA NTRS2021

Eastern Equatorial Pacific Warming Delayed By Aerosols and Thermostat Response to Co2 Increase

Understanding the tropical Pacific response to global warming remains challenging. Here, we use a range of CMIP6 greenhouse warming experiments to assess the recent and future evolution of the equatorial Pacific east-west temperature gradient and corresponding Walker circulation. In abrupt CO2-increase scenarios many models generate an initial strengthening of this gradient resembling an ocean thermostat (OT), followed by a small weakening; other models generate an immediate weakening that becomes progressively stronger establishing a pronounced eastern equatorial Pacific (EP) warming pattern. The initial response in these experiments is a strong predictor for the future EP pattern simulated in both abrupt and realistic warming scenarios, but not in historical simulations showing no multi-model trend. The likely explanation is that the recent CO2-driven changes in the tropical Pacific are masked by aerosol effects and a potential OT-related delay, while the EP warming pattern will emerge as greenhouse gases overcome aerosol forcing.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗
NASA NTRS1999

Sensitivity of the Tropical Pacific Ocean to Precipitation Induced Freshwater Flux

We have performed a series of experiments using an ocean model to study the sensitivity of tropical Pacific Ocean to variations in precipitation induced freshwater fluxes. Variations in these fluxes arise from natural causes on all time scales. In addition, estimates of these fluxes are uncertain because of differences among measurement techniques. The model used is a quasi-isopycnal model, covering the Pacific from 40 S to 40 N. The surface forcing is constructed from observed wind stress, evaporation, precipitation, and surface temperature (SST) fields. The heat flux is produced with an iterative technique so as to maintain the model close to the observed climatology, but with only a weak damping to that climatology. Climatological estimates of evaporation are combined with various estimates of precipitation to determine the net surface freshwater flux. Results indicate that increased freshwater input decreases salinity as expected, but increases temperatures in the upper ocean. Using the freshwater flux estimated from the Microwave Sounding Unit leads to a warming of up to 0.6 C in the western Pacific over a case with zero net freshwater flux. SST is sensitive to the discrepancies among different precipitation observations, with root-mean-square differences in SST on the order of 0.2-0.3 C. The change in SST is more pronounced in the eastern Pacific, with differences of over 1 C found among the various precipitation products. Interannual variation in precipitation during El Nino events leads to increased warming. During the winter of 1982-83, freshwater flux accounts for about 0.4 C (approximately 10-15% of the maximum warming) of the surface warming in the central-eastern Pacific. Thus, the error of SST caused by the discrepancies in precipitation products is more than half of the SST anomaly produced by the interannual variability of observed precipitation. Further experiments, in which freshwater flux anomalies are imposed in the western, central, and eastern Pacific, show that the influence of net freshwater flux is also spatially dependent. The imposition of freshwater flux in the far western Pacific leads to a trapping of salinity anomaly to the surface layers near the equator. An identical flux imposed in the central Pacific produces deeper and off-equatorial salinity anomalies. The contrast between these two simulations is consistent with other simulations of the western Pacific barrier layer information.

Yang, Song↗