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An investigation of the relationship between sub-Saharan rainfall and global sea surface temperatures

The relationship between SST and rainfall index anomalies over sub-Saharan Africa for the 1970-1984 period is investigated. Results of an empirical orthogonal function analysis indicate that the most dominant eigenmode, EOF1, is characterized by warming over the central eastern Pacific, cooling over the eastern midlatitude Pacific, and warming over the entire Atlantic and Indian ocean basins. EOF1 is found to have statistically signifiant monthly correlations for the Sahel and Soudan regions, with the warm El Nino-like phases of SST EOF1 corresponding to drought conditions. These results suggest that the large-scale SST anomalies may be responsible for a large component of the observed vacillation of sub-Saharan rainfall.

Semazzi, F. H. M.↗

Long-Term Changes/Trends in Surface Temperature and Precipitation During the Satellite Era (1979-2012)

During the post-1979 period in which the satellite-based precipitation measurements with global coverage are available, global mean surface temperature rapidly increased up to late 1990s, followed by a period of temperature hiatus after about 19981999. Comparing observed surface temperature trends against the simulated ones by the CMIP5 historical experiments especially in the zonal mean context suggests that although the anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) forcing has played a major role, in addition to the anthropogenic aerosols and various natural forcings, the effects from decadal-to-interdecadal scale internal modes specifically the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) are also very strong. Evident temperature changes associated with the PDOs phase shift are seen in the Pacific basin, with decadal-scale cooling in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and most of the east basin and concurrent warming in the subtropics of both hemispheres,even though the PDOs net effect on global mean temperature is relatively weak. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) also changed its phase in the mid-1990s, and hence its possible impact is estimated and assessed as well.However, comparisons with CMIP5 simulations suggest that the AMO may have not contributed as significantly as the PDO in terms of the changes trends in global surface temperature, even though the data analysis technique used here suggests otherwise. Long-term precipitation changes or trends during the post-1979 period are further shown to have been modulated by the two major factors:anthropogenic GHG and PDO, in addition to the relatively weak effects from aerosols and natural forcings. The spatial patterns of observed precipitation trends in the Pacific,including reductions in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and increases in the tropical western Pacific and along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, manifest the PDOs contributions.Removing the PDO effect from the total precipitation trends makes the spatial structures of precipitation trends more similar to those simulated by CMIP5 historical full forcing experiments particularly in the context of zonal-mean results. This also confirms that in spite of the PDO effect specifically on regional scales, the anthropogenic GHG signals are still discernible in observed precipitation during the time period. Following the increase of GHG, precipitation tends to increase roughly along the climatological ITCZ and decrease south of the equator and in the subtropics of both hemispheres.

GPCP↗

Global barotropic response to a tropical forcing

Zonally varying flow has been used to initialize numerical models and has been shown to play an important role in strong localized responses both in extratropics and the tropics. In this study, a climatological 200 mb January mean is used as a steady basic state of a barotropical model which consists of shallow water equations and a mass source centered at 4 deg S/120 deg E to simulate convective heating over Indonesia region. In the experiment, tropical responses appear not only over the western Pacific, where the forcing is located, but also over the eastern Pacific where the response is related to the zonally varying basic state. The westward propagating equatorial Rossby waves excited by the forcing interact with waves out of and into the tropics and the positive and negative phase of the Rossby waves result in blocking circulation over North America and tropical plumes over equatorial eastern Pacific, respectively.

Zhang, Yuxia↗

Free tropospheric and boundary layer measurements of NO over the central and eastern North Pacific Ocean

Reported in this paper are the Georgia Institute of Technology NO results from the fall 1983 NASA GTE/CITE 1 Airborne Field Sampling Program. These data were predominantly collected over a geographical area defined by the eastern and central North Pacific Ocean, spanning the latitude range of 15-42 deg N. These NO measurements were taken using the two-photon laser-induced fluorescence technique. The data show a general trend of increasing levels of NO from the boundary layer up to altitudes of nearly 10 km. The average midday value of NO at altitudes of less than or equal to 1.8 km was 4 parts per trillion by volume (pptv), and at about 6 km, 20 pptv, whereas that at about 9 km was 25-35 pptv, the higher value reflecting the inclusion of NO data collected from the outflow region of two electrically active cumulonimbus clouds. The high-altitude NO data strongly suggest that at least during the time of the GTE flight operation, the major sources of NO for remote regions of the Pacific Ocean were those resulting from lightning and the downward transport of stratospheric air.

Davis, D. D.↗

Seasonal and Interannual Variabilities in Tropical Tropospheric Ozone

This paper presents a detailed characterization of seasonal and interannual variability in tropical tropospheric column ozone (TCO). TCO time series are derived from 20 years (1979-1998) of total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) data using the convective cloud differential (CCD) method. Our study identifies three regions in the tropics with distinctly different zonal characteristics related to seasonal and interannual variability. These three regions are the eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and western Pacific. Results show that in both the eastern and western Pacific seasonal-cycle variability of northern hemisphere (NH) TCO exhibits maximum amount during NH spring whereas largest amount in southern hemisphere (SH) TCO occurs during SH spring. In the Atlantic, maximum TCO in both hemispheres occurs in SH spring. These seasonal cycles are shown to be comparable to seasonal cycles present in ground-based ozonesonde measurements. Interannual variability in the Atlantic region indicates a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal that is out of phase with the QBO present in stratospheric column ozone (SCO). This is consistent with high pollution and high concentrations of mid-to-upper tropospheric O3-producing precursors in this region. The out of phase relation suggests a UV modulation of tropospheric photochemistry caused by the QBO in stratospheric O3. During El Nino events there is anomalously low TCO in the eastern Pacific and high values in the western Pacific, indicating the effects of convectively-driven transport of low-value boundary layer O3 (reducing TCO) and O3 precursors including H2O and OH. A simplified technique is proposed to derive high-resolution maps of TCO in the tropics even in the absence of tropopause-level clouds. This promising approach requires only total ozone gridded measurements and utilizes the small variability observed in TCO near the dateline. This technique has an advantage compared to the CCD method because the latter requires high-resolution footprint measurements of both reflectivity and total ozone in the presence of tropopause-level cloud tops.

Ziemke, J. R.↗

A preliminary theory of the origin of the 40-50 day oscillation

A theory of the 40 to 50 day oscillation in the tropical atmosphere which encompasses predominantly eastward propagation along the equator, spatial scales of wavenumber 1 and 2, slow time scales (20 to 70 days), and strong amplitude modulation in associated large-scale convective activity as a function of geographical location, i.e., pronounced convection is confined to the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, is presented. An initial disturbance generated near the equator disperses away from the source region, eastward by Kelvin waves and westward by Rossby waves. When the eastward disturbance passes over warm water it is expected to amplify by CISK due to enhanced supply of moisture from the ocean surface. Over cold water, its amplitude is expected to reduce due to decreased moisture supply. The climatological sea surface temperature contrast between the Indian Ocean/western Pacific and the eastern Pacific sets the spatial scale of the wave and its modulation to low wavenumbers and confines pronounced convection to the warm sector. If the eastward propagating wave can maintain itself over dissipation one circuit around the globe, it has a good chance to continue the process indefinitely, provided it is rejunvenated over the warm water with enough energy to go around for the next cycle.

Lau, K. M.↗

Highlights from the 11-Year Record of Tropospheric Ozone from OMI/MLS and Continuation of that Long Record Using OMPS Measurements

Since October 2004 the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) onboard the Aura satellite have provided over 11 years of continuous tropospheric ozone measurements. These OMI/MLS measurements have been used in many studies to evaluate dynamical and photochemical effects caused by ENSO, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and shorter timescales, as well as long-term trends and the effects of deep convection on tropospheric ozone. Given that the OMI and MLS instruments have now extended well beyond their expected lifetimes, our goal is to continue their long record of tropospheric ozone using recent Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS) measurements. The OMPS onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership NPP satellite was launched on October 28, 2011 and is comprised of three instruments: the nadir mapper, the nadir profiler, and the limb profiler. Our study combines total column ozone from the OMPS nadir mapper with stratospheric column ozone from the OMPS limb profiler to measure tropospheric ozone residual. The time period for the OMPS measurements is March 2012 present. For the OMPS limb profiler retrievals, the OMPS v2 algorithm from Goddard is tested against the University of Saskatchewan (USask) Algorithm. The retrieved ozone profiles from each of these algorithms are evaluated with ozone profiles from both ozonesondes and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Effects on derived OMPS tropospheric ozone caused by the 2015-2016 El Nino event are highlighted. This recent El Nino produced anomalies in tropospheric ozone throughout the tropical Pacific involving increases of approximately 10 DU over Indonesia and decreases approximately 5-10 DU in the eastern Pacific. These changes in ozone due to El Nino were predominantly dynamically-induced, caused by the eastward shift in sea-surface temperature and convection from the western to the eastern Pacific.

MJO↗

On the interannual variation of the earth radiation balance

The interannual variability of the top of the atmosphere net radiation budget as measured from the Nimbus-7 earth radiation budget instruments was calculated for an eight-year period 1979-1986. The largest fluctuations are shown to occur in three tropical areas: the Atlantic off the west coast of Africa, the eastern Pacific near South America, and the western Pacific northeast of Indonesia. The variability in the Atlantic was 20 percent greater than in the eastern Pacific and 35 percent greater than in the Indonesian area. The maximum anomalies in these two Pacific regions occurred during the El Nino year 1982-1983, while the maximum Atlantic anomalies, south of the Gulf of Guinea, were during 1984. An independent data set of derived cloud type and amount from the Temperature Humidity Infrared Radiometer and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer instruments shows interannual changes in multilevel convective cloud systems have a minimal effect of the net balance. However, changes in middle and low clouds drastically affect the balance, and are the most likely cause of the maximum radiation balance variability in the Gulf of Guinea region. This observed interannual variation of the top of the atmosphere net balance denotes the most variable 'cloud radiative forcing' situation observed to date.

Randel, David L.↗

Biennial oscillation associated with the East Asian summer monsoon and tropical sea surface temperatures

In this paper, the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall and the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) have been studied. It is found that the EASM rainfall prossesses a strong biennial signal, which is particularly pronounced over the southeast China. For the SST, the biennial oscillation is the second most significant quasi-periodic signal over the entire tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. Results indicate that the biennial variations in the SST and EASM rainfall are closely linked. The SST pattern which is best correlated with EASM rainfall appears in the form of a double see-saw with quasi-stationary centers of action over the Indian Ocean, the Asian monsoon region and the eastern Pacific. The most pronounced SST signals are found in the equatorial eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean about two seasons preceding and following the EASM rainfall. Evidence is presented suggesting that the biennial variability of the EASM rainfall is phase-locked to a global scale biennial oscillation involving the interplay of the Asian monsoon, the Hadley and Walker circulations, and basin wide fluctuations in SST. In particular, the eastward propagation of zonal wind anomalies from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific, which regulates the moisture fluxes from the western Pacific to the East Asian region, appears to be a key component of the biennial fluctuation associated with EASM rainfall. Results suggest that the relationship between the Asian monsoon and tropical SST is more robust in the biennial that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time scale, hence raising the possibility that the biennial oscillation may be more fundamentally related to monsoon-ocean-atmosphere interaction than ENSO itself.

Shen, Suhung↗

Systematic Differences between Satellite-Based Presipitation Climatologies over the Tropical Oceans

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. It is clear however that there still remain significant uncertainties with satellite precipitation retrievals which limit their usefulness for many purposes. Systematic differences i'A tropical precipitation estimates have been brought to light in comparison activities such as the GPCP Algorithm Intercomparison Project and more recent Wetnet Precipitation Intercomparison Project 3. These uncertainties are assuming more importance because of the demands for validation associated with global climate modeling and data assimilation methodologies. The objective of the present study is to determine the physical basis for systematic differences in spatial structure of tropical precipitation as portrayed by several different satellite-based data sets. The study is limited to oceanic regions only and deals primarily with aspects of spatial variability. We are specifically interested in why MSU channel 1 and GPI precipitation differences are so striking over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ and why they both differ from other microwave emission-based precipitation estimates from SSM/I and a scattering-based deep convective ice index from MSU channel 2. Our results to date have shown that MSU channel I precipitation estimates are biased high over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ because of two factors: (1) the hypersensitivity of this frequency to cloud water in contrast to falling rain drops, and (2) unaccounted for scattering effects by precipitation-size ice which depresses the signal of the liquid water emission. Likewise, cold cloud top climatologies such as the GPI show an excess (a deficit) in estimated rainfall over the E. Pacific ITCZ (Warm Pool region). We show that these algorithms need to account for regionally varying heights (or temperatures) at which tropical convection detrains to form cirrus shields. A second objective we pursue is to identify variations in the macroscale cloud physical and thermodynamic properties of precipitation regimes" and relate these differences to tropical dynamical mechanisms of tropical heat and moisture balance. Finally, we interpret the algorithm differences and their associations with tropical dynamics in terms of WCRP GPCP goals for constructing precipitation climatologies.

Robertson, Frankin R.↗

Variability in equatorial Pacific sea surface topography during the verification phase of the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission

As part of the verification phase of the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission, 10-day gridded fields of altimeter data derived from TOPEX geophysical data records are compared with 10-day gridded fields of dynamic height derived from more than 60 moorings of the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere-Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TOGA-TAO) array in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Access to TAO data in real time permits the first 500 days of the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission to be placed in the context of complementary, in-situ measurements of surface winds, sea surface temperatures, and upper ocean thermal structure, as well as the time history of these variables prior to launch. Analysis of the space-time structure in the TOPEX and TAO surface topography data increases sea level variability primarily due to equatorial Kelvin wave activity generated by intense wind bursts west of the date line in association with the 1991-1993 El Nino. Cross correlations between the two data sets are generally greater than 0.7, with root mean square (RMS) differences less than 4 cm. However, for reasons not fully understood, correlations drop to less than 0.5 in certain regions off the equator in the eastern Pacific and RMS differences can be greater than 5 cm north of the equator in the central and eastern Pacific.

Busalacchi, Antonio J.↗

Internal Dynamics and Boundary Forcing Characteristics Associated with Interannual Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon

In this paper, we present a description of the internal dynamics and boundary forcing characteristics of two major components of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), i.e., the South Asian (SAM) and the Southeast-East Asian monsoon (SEAM). The description is based on a new monsoon-climate paradigm in which the variability of ASM is considered as the outcome of the interplay of a "fast" and an "intermediate" monsoon subsystem, under the influenced of the "slow" varying external forcings. Two sets of regional monsoon indices derived from dynamically consistent rainfall and wind data are used in this study. For SAM, the internal dynamics is represented by that of a "classical" monsoon system where the anomalous circulation is governed by Rossby-wave dynamics, i.e., generation of anomalous vorticity induced by an off-equatorial heat source is balanced by planetary vorticity advection. On the other hand, the internal dynamics of SEAM is characterized by a "hybrid" monsoon system featuring multi-cellular meridional circulation over the East Asian section, extending from the deep tropics to midlatitudes. These meridional-cells link tropical heating to extratropical circulation system via the East Asian jetstream, and are responsible for the characteristic occurrences of zonally oriented anomalous rainfall patterns over East Asian and the subtropical western Pacific. In the extratropical regions, the major upper level vorticity balance is by anomalous vorticity advection and generation by the anomalous divergent circulation. A consequence of this is that compared to SAM, the SEAM is associated with stronger teleconnection patterns to regions outside the ASM. A strong SAM is linked to basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuation with significant signal in the equatorial eastern Pacific. During the boreal spring SST warming in the Arabian Sea and the subtropical western Pacific may lead to a strong SAM. For SEAM, interannual variability is tied to SSTA over the Sea of Japan and the South China Sea regions, while the linkage to equatorial basin-scale SSTA is weak at best. A large scale SSTA dipole with warming (cooling) in the subtropical central (eastern) Pacific foreshadows a strong SEAM.

Lau, K.- M.↗

The ocean response to operational westerly wind bursts during the 1991 - 1992 El Nino

Numerical simulations of the remotely forced ocean response to westerly wind bursts prior to and during the 1991 - 1992 El Nino are examined; the models are forced by wind stress from the U.S. Navy's atmospheric global operational analysis/forecast system. The study focuses on (1) the relative response of the first and second internal modes to a single episode of westerly bursts; (2) the role of westerly bursts in producing the eastern Pacific sea level variations from October 1990 to February 1992; and (3) the relative importance of the remotely forced sea level responses generated by central and western Pacific wind anomalies. The simulation use the Naval Research Laboratory global multilayer formulation; the suite of experiments includes hydrodynamic simulations that use both one- and three- active-layer reduced gravity models as well as an experiment that also includes thermodynamic effects. The models are executed from January 1, 1990, to March 1, 1992, a period that includes 10 significant westerly wind bursts or burst clusters and the 1991 - 1992 El Nino event. The numerical experiments reveal an ability to accurately simulate the eastern Pacific sea level variations during this period. In response to a single burst, the three-layer hydrodynamic simulation reveals that the second internal mode Kelvin wave yields a sea level change at the eastern boundary that is approximately one third that of the first mode and a surface velocity signature that is equivalent to the first mode. During the onset of the El Nino event the inclusion of higher modes also produces a more realistic representation of the observed eastern boundary sea level signal. Furthermore, by comparing the model response to particular wind bursts with the observed sea level at Baltra, Galapagos, a value of 2.5 - 2.6 m/s is suggested as the most appropriate mean speed for the first internal mode Kelvin wave during the onset phase. A scenario for the onset of the 1991 - 1992 El Nino is given.

Kindle, John C.↗

New Insights on Hydro-Climate Feedback Processes over the Tropical Ocean from TRMM

In this paper, we study hydro-climate feedback processes over the tropical oceans, by examining the relationships among large scale circulation and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager-Sea Surface Temperature (TMI-SST), and a range of TRMM rain products including rain rate, cloud liquid water, precipitable water, cloud types and areal coverage, and precipitation efficiency. Results show that for a warm event (1998), the 28C threshold of convective precipitation is quite well defined over the tropical oceans. However, for a cold event (1999), the SST threshold is less well defined, especially over the central and eastern Pacific cold tongue, where stratiform rain occurs at much lower than 28 C. Precipitation rates and cloud liquid water are found to be more closely related to the large scale vertical motion than to the underlying SST. While total columnar water vapor is more strongly dependent on SST. For a large domain, over the eastern Pacific, we find that the areal extent of the cloudy region tends to shrink as the SST increases. Examination of the relationship between cloud liquid water and rain rate suggests that the residence time of cloud liquid water tends to be shorter, associated with higher precipitation efficiency in a warmer climate. It is hypothesized that the reduction in cloudy area may be influenced both by the shift in large scale cloud patterns in response to changes in large scale forcings, and possible increase in the cloud liquid water conversion to rain water in a warmer environment. Results of numerical experiments with the Goddard cloud resolving model to test the hypothesis will be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗

A Satellite-Derived Upper-Tropospheric Water Vapor Transport Index for Climate Studies

A new approach is presented to quantify upper-level moisture transport from geostationary satellite data. Daily time sequences of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite GOES-7 water vapor imagery were used to produce estimates of winds and water vapor mixing ratio in the cloud-free region of the upper troposphere sensed by the 6.7- microns water vapor channel. The winds and mixing ratio values were gridded and then combined to produce a parameter called the water vapor transport index (WVTI), which represents the magnitude of the two-dimensional transport of water vapor in the upper troposphere. Daily grids of WVTI, meridional moisture transport, mixing ratio, pressure, and other associated parameters were averaged to produce monthly fields for June, July, and August (JJA) of 1987 and 1988 over the Americas and surrounding oceanic regions, The WVTI was used to compare upper-tropospheric moisture transport between the summers of 1987 and 1988, contrasting the latter part of the 1986/87 El Nino event and the La Nina period of 1988. A similar product derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) 40-Year Reanalysis Project was used to help to validate the index. Although the goal of this research was to describe the formulation and utility of the WVTI, considerable insight was obtained into the interannual variability of upper-level water vapor transport. Both datasets showed large upper-level water vapor transport associated with synoptic features over the Americas and with outflow from tropical convective systems. Minimal transport occurred over tropical and subtropical high pressure regions where winds were light. Index values from NCEP-NCAR were 2-3 times larger than that determined from GOES. This difference resulted from large zonal wind differences and an apparent overestimate of upper-tropospheric moisture in the reanalysis model. A comparison of the satellite-derived monthly values between the summers of 1987 and 1988 provided some insight into the impact of the ENSO event on upper-level moisture and its transport during the period. During July 1987, a large portion of the Tropics in the eastern Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea was dominated by strong vapor transport in excess of 4.0 g/kg m/s, with relatively small amounts in the other months. JJA 1988 transport values reached similar magnitude and showed similar patterns for all three months. The meridional transport of upper-level water vapor indicated large poleward transport from the Tropics to the higher latitudes. This transport favored the Southern Hemisphere, with large transport occurring south of the ITCZ, which extended across the eastern Pacific and northern South America. Zonally averaged monthly transport values were shown to provide a simple way to quantify the monthly and interannual changes in water vapor transport. Zonally averaged WVTI values peaked in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics during both austral winters. In the Tropics, a single, more- pronounced peak located over the equator and south latitudes occurred in 1988 as opposed to a dual peak in 1987. The second peak around 20'N latitude is consistent with findings of others in which upper-tropospheric winds were noted to be stronger in this region during warm ENSO events. Zonally averaged meridional transport was southward for all summer months and was stronger in 1988. The asymmetric nature of the zonally averaged meridional transport (more southerly water vapor transport) was enhanced during JJA 1988, thus indicating a stronger upper- level branch of the Hadley circulation during this notably strong La Nina period.

Jedlovec, Gray J.↗

Overview of the Field Phase of the NASA Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP)Experiment

The Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes experiment is sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to investigate characteristics of tropical cyclone genesis, rapid intensification and rainfall using a three-pronged approach that emphasizes satellite information, suborbital observations and numerical model simulations. Research goals include demonstration and assessment of new technology, improvements to numerical model parameterizations, and advancements in data assimilation techniques. The field phase of the experiment was based in Costa Rica during July 2005. A fully instrumented NASA ER-2 high altitude airplane was deployed with Doppler radar, passive microwave instrumentation, lightning and electric field sensors and an airborne simulator of visible and infrared satellite sensors. Other assets brought to TCSP were a low flying uninhabited aerial vehicle, and a surface-based radiosonde network. In partnership with the Intensity Forecasting Experiment of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Research Division, two NOAA P-3 aircraft instrumented with radar, passive microwave, microphysical, and dropsonde instrumentation were also deployed to Costa Rica. The field phase of TCSP was conducted in Costa Rica to take advantage of the geographically compact tropical cyclone genesis region of the Eastern Pacific Ocean near Central America. However, the unusual 2005 hurricane season provided numerous opportunities to sample tropical cyclone development and intensification in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico as well. Development of Hurricane Dennis and Tropical Storm Gert were each investigated over several days in addition to Hurricane Emily as it was close to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 intensity. An overview of the characteristics of these storms along with the pregenesis environment of Tropical Storm Eugene in the Eastern Pacific will be presented.

Hood, Robbie E.↗

A Satellite-Derived Upper-Tropospheric Water Vapor Transport Index for Climate Studies

A new approach is presented to quantify upper-level moisture transport from geostationary satellite data. Daily time sequences of GOES-7 water vapor imagery were used to produce estimates of winds and water vapor mixing ratio in the upper-troposphere sensed by the 6.7-microns water vapor channel. The winds and mixing ratio values were gridded and then combined to produce a parameter called the Water Vapor Transport Index (WVTI) which represents the magnitude of the two dimensional transport of water vapor in the upper troposphere. Daily grids of WVTI, meridional moisture transport, mixing ratio, pressure and other associated parameters were averaged to produce monthly fields for June, July and August of 1987 and 1988 over the Americas and surrounding oceanic regions. The WVTI was used to compare upper-tropospheric moisture transport between the summers of 1987 and 1988, contrasting the latter part of the 1986/87 El Nino event and the La Nina period of 1988. A similar product derived from the NCEP reanalysis was used to help validate the index and understand interannual variability of moisture transport from the modeling perspective. Both datasets showed large upper-level water vapor transport associated with synoptic features over the Americas and with outflow from tropical convective systems. Minimal transport occurred over tropical and subtropical high pressure regions where winds were light. Index values from NCEP were 2-3 times larger than that determined from the GOES satellite This difference resulted from an over estimate of the zonal winds and upper-tropospheric moisture in the reanalysis model. A comparison of the satellite-derived monthly values between the summers of 1987 and 1988 provided some insight into the impact of the ENSO event on upper-level moisture and its transport during the period. During July 1987, a large portion of the tropics in the eastern Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea was dominated by strong vapor transport in excess of 5 g/kg/ms with relatively small amounts in the other months. In contrast, JJA 1988 showed an opposite trend with July 1988 being less dominated by tropical water vapor transport. The meridional transport of upper-level water vapor indicated significant poleward transport from the tropics to the higher latitudes. This transport favored the Southern Hemisphere with large transport occurring south of the ITCZ which extended across the eastern Pacific and northern South America. Zonally-averaged monthly transport values were shown to provide a simple way to quantify the monthly and interannual changes in water vapor transport. Zonally-averaged WVTI values peaked in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics during both Austral winters. In the tropics a single more pronounced peak located over the equator and south latitudes occurred in 1988 as opposed to a dual peak in 1987. The second peak around 20 deg.N latitude is consistent with findings of others where upper-tropospheric winds were noted to be stronger in this region during warm ENSO events. Zonally-averaged meridional transport was southward for all summer months and stronger in 1988. The asymmetric nature of the zonally-averaged meridional transport (more southerly water vapor transport) was enhanced during JJA 1998 thus indicating a stronger upper-level branch of the Hadley circulation during this notable strong La Nina period.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

Intercomparisons of Total Precipitable Water from Satellite and Other Long Term Data Sets

Global water vapor data sets from satellite (NVAP) and reanalysis (NCEP and DAO) are intercompared for a 5 year period (1988-1992). Global average indicates that the NCEP and DAO reanalyses are dryer than NVAP over much of the period. Spatial patterns of the NCEP/NVAP and DAO/NVAP differences show regional variations in the 60 month climatogical fields. For example, in the Eastern Pacific just south of the equator NVAP is much dryer than the NCEP and more moist than DAO. Rather large discrepancies exist in other regions as well. North Africa, Saudi Arabia, India, and Australia show that NVAP TPW values are more moist than the NCEP and DAO model analyses by 4-8 mm. In general, the NCEP and DAO exhibits a tendency to be dryer than NVAP over the tropical ocean region. Over the Americas little differences exist except over the west coast. The shapes of the differences fields over the Eastern Pacific region are significantly different between NCEP/NVAP and DAO/NVAP differences. Over South America and Central Africa, DAO TPW values are significantly higher than those of NVAP. These difference fields show monthly and seasonal variability as well. These results will be highlighted in the paper and on the poster.

Chang, Fong-Chiau↗