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At least 73 records · Page 4
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NASA NTRS2018

Impact of Aquarius and SMAP Sea Surface Salinity Observations on Seasonal Predictions of the 2015 El Nino

We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts for the big 2015 El Nino event. From March to June 2015, the availability of two overlapping satellite SSS instruments, Aquarius and SMAP, allows a unique opportunity to compare and contrast coupled forecasts generated with the benefit of these two satellite SSS observation types. Four distinct experiments are presented that include 1) freely evolving model SSS (i.e. no satellite SSS), relaxation to 2) climatological SSS (i.e. WOA13 (World Ocean Atlas 2013) SSS), 3) Aquarius and 4) SMAP initialization. Coupled hindcasts are generated from these initial conditions for March 2015. These forecasts are then validated against observations and evaluated with respect to the observed El Nino development.

Kovach, R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Impact of Aquarius and SMAP Sea Surface Salinity Observations on Seasonal Predictions of the 2015 El Nino

We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts for the big 2015 El Nino event. From March to June 2015, the availability of two overlapping satellite SSS instruments, Aquarius and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission), allows a unique opportunity to compare and contrast forecasts generated with the benefit of these two satellite SSS observation types. Four distinct experiments are presented that include 1) freely evolving model SSS (i.e. no satellite SSS), relaxation to 2) climatological SSS (i.e. WOA13 SSS), 3) Aquarius, and 4) SMAP initialization. Coupled hindcasts are then generated from these initial conditions for March 2015. These forecasts are then validated against observations and evaluated with respect to the observed El Nino development.

Hackert, E.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Cloud Structure Anomalies Over the Tropical Pacific During the 1997/98 El Nino

Satellite measurements of both cloud vertical structure and cloud-radiative forcing have been used to show that during the strong 1997/98 El Nino there was a substantial change in cloud vertical structure over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Relative to normal years, cloud altitudes were lower in the western portion of the Pacific and higher in the eastern portion. The reason for these redistributions was a collapse of the Walker circulation and enhanced large-scale upward motion over the eastern Pacific, both caused by the lack of a zonal sea surface temperature gradient during El Nino. It is proposed that these cloud structure changes, which significantly impact satellite measurements of the tropical Pacific's radiation budget, would serve as one useful means of testing cloud-climate interactions in climate models.

Cess, Robert D.↗
NASA NTRS1985

El Nino and atmospheric water vapor - Observations from Nimbus 7 SMMR

Atmospheric water vapor content over the global oceans is measured to study the air-sea interactions associated with El Nino/Southern Oscillation. A scanning multichannel microwave radiometer measured brightness temperatures of the earth-atmosphere system at 6.6, 10.7, 18, 21, and 37 GHz, and from these data water vapor content is derived. The seasonal mean distribution of water vapor for the regular season cycle from 1979-1981 are examined; the minima associated with the subtropical anticyclones in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean are analyzed. The positive and negative anomalies in water vapor during the 1982-1983 El Nino event, which correspond to convergence and enhanced convective activity, are investigated. It is concluded that during El Nino events a system of convection and subsidence exists; the subsidence slows the supply of water vapor and cloud growth in the convectively active center and the Walker circulation is reversed.

Prabhakara, C.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The El-Nino, the Southern Oscillation and the earth rotation

The relationship between length of day (LOD) variations and the Southern Oscillation (SO), and with the associated El Nino phenomenon, is studied. Interannual changes in the LOD are shown to be linearly related to a SO sea level pressure index. A possible physical mechanism for this relationship is the thermal winds caused by changes in the equator to pole heat transports associated with El Nino events and the SO.

Eubanks, T. M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Spaceborne Sensors Observe El Nino Teleconnection

The anomalous warming along the equator is part of the developing El Nino condition and is related to the westerly wind anomalies and the relaxation of the trade-winds over the equatorial Pacific.

El Nino Spaceborne sensors↗
NASA NTRS1987

Remote sensing of water vapor convergence, deep convection, and precipitation over the tropical Pacific Ocean during the 1982-1983 El Nino

Using data collected by SMMR on board the Nimbus 7 satellite, estimates of atmospheric water vapor were obtained over the tropical Pacific Ocean during the 1982-1983 El Nino. A parameterization that physically relates the synoptic and convective scales was employed, making it possible to explicitly resolve convective elements and rain cells for poorly resolvable measurements. The derived water vapor flux convergences were analyzed during the El Nino episode to map the inferred deep convection and estimated rainfall over regions impacted by the event, and the inferred monthly rainfall amounts were compared with observations for 14 island and coastal stations in the Pacific Ocean.

Ardanuy, Philip E.↗
NASA NTRS1996

The Onset of the 1997-1998 El Nino and its Impact on the Phytoplankton Community of the Central Equatorial Pacific

Using physical and bio-optical data from moorings in the central equatorial Pacific, the perturbations to phytoplankton biomass and productivity associated with the onset of the 1997-98 El Nino event were investigated. The data presented depict the physical progression of El Nino onset, from reversal of the trade winds in the western equatorial Pacific, through eastward propagation of equatorially trapped Kelvin waves and advection of waters from the nutrient-poor western equatorial warm pool. The physical perturbations led to fluctuations in phytoplankton biomass, quantum yield of fluorescence and a 50% reduction in primary productivity.

Chavez, F. P.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Kelvin-wave-induced anomalous advection and the onset of surface warming in El Nino events

A simple advective model for tropical ocean surface warming can produce anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) fields similar to those of the first several months of the 1982 El Nino. The physics invoked assumes that the existing SST field is advected by anomalous currents to produce the anomalous warming, and that the anomalous currents are those induced subsequent to the passage of downwelling Kelvin wave fronts. Numerical experiments with a fully nonlinear and thermally active ocean model support the physical relevance of the more idealized study. The anomalous horizontal advection model also accounts for the initial SST evolution during the more common type of El Nino event.

Harrison, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Toward Integrated Seasonal Predictions of Land and Ocean Carbon Flux: Lessons from the 2015-16 El Nino

Seasonal forecasts made by coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are increasingly able to provide skillful forecasts of climate anomalies. At some centers, the capabilities of these models are being expanded to represent carbon-climate feedbacks including ocean biogeochemistry (OB), terrestrial biosphere (TB) interactions, and fires. These advances raise the question of whether such models can support skillful forecasts of carbon fluxes.Here, we examine whether land and ocean carbon flux anomalies associated with the 2015-16 El Nino could have been predicted months in advance. This El Nino was noteworthy for the magnitude of the ocean temperature perturbation, the skill with which this perturbation was predicted, and the extensive satellite observations that can be used to track its impact. We explore this topic using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, which routinely produces an ensemble of seasonal climate forecasts, and a suite of offline dynamical and statistical models that estimate carbon flux processes. Using GEOS forecast fields from 2015-16 to force flux model hindcasts shows that these models are able to reproduce significant features observed by satellites. Specifically, OB hindcasts are able to predict anomalies in chlorophyll distributions with lead times of 3-4 months. The ability of TB hindcasts to reproduce NDVI anomalies is driven by the skill of the climate forecast, which is greatest at short lead times over tropical landmasses. Statistical fire forecasts driven by ocean climate indices are able to predict burned area in the tropics with lead times of 3-12 months. We also integrate the ocean and land hindcast fluxes into the GEOS GCM to examine the magnitude of the atmospheric carbon dioxide anomaly and compare with satellite and ground-based observations.While seasonal forecasting remains an active area of research, these results demonstrate that forecasts of carbon flux processes can support a variety of applications, potentially allowing scientists to understand carbon-climate feedbacks as they happen and to capitalize on more flexible satellite technologies that allow areas of interest to be targeted with lead times of weeks to months. We also provide a first glimpse at the spring 2019 carbon forecast using the GEOS-based forecasting system.

Ott, L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Geosat-derived sea level and surface current anomalies in the equatorial Pacific during the 1986-1989 El Nino and La Nina

Equatorial wave dynamics are essential in most oceanic models for reproducing aspects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Observational evidence of first baroclinic equatorial Kelvin and first symmetric meridional Rossby waves is found in Geosat-derived sea level anomalies (SLA) and surface zonal current anomalies (ZCA) in the equatorial Pacific ocean during the 1986-1987 El Nino and the ensuing 1988-1989 La Nina. This was made possible after extensive quality control and specific processing of the recently improved Geosat geophysical data records pertaining to the 17-day Exact Repeat Mission. In particular, the processing was made so that the Geosat-derived ZCA best fit near-surface zonal currents from three equatorial moorings at 165 deg E, 140 deg W, and 110 deg W. The Geosat-derived SLA and ZCA are decomposed into first baroclinic equatorial Kelvin and gravest Rossby modes. The emphasis is then put on the chronology of the ZCA at the equator where the currents are the most energetic and where Kelvin and first symmetric Rossby waves explain most of the variance in ZCA, in similar proportion. The 1986-1987 El Nino is mostly characterized by a strong downwelling Kelvin wave in December 1986, a series of downwelling Kelvin waves in March-October 1987, and a strong upwelling Rossby wave in March-September 1987. These waves are consistent with wind forcing, and all give rise to notable eastward ZCA for almost an entire year. During El Nino-La Nina transition period there is the occurrence of two downwelling Rossby waves originating from the eastern Pacific at times of favorable wind forcing. These Rossby waves switch the basin-wide ZCA from eastward to westward, terminating the warm event. Then, the 1988-1989 La Nina shows the generation of a series of upwelling Kelvin waves which are clearly identified in March/April and September/October 1988. These upwelling Kelvin waves are apparently related to the enhencement of the trade wind in the western half of the basin. These waves maintain the basin-wide westward ZCA for more than a year, although the ZCA is slightly reduced ba front of upwelling Rossby waves in phase with the normal seasonal cycle. The Kelvin wave forcing and sign of kelvin wave contribution versus Rossby wave contribution to ZCA in the western Pacific are discussed, and we conclude that neither pleads in favor of the delayed action oscillator mechanism.

Delcroix, Thierry↗
NASA NTRS1986

El Nino and outgoing longwave radiation: An atlas of Nimbus-7 Earth radiation budget observations

Five years of broadband Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) measurements taken by the Nimbus-7 ERB experiment have been archived. This five year period included the 1982 to 1983 El Nino/Southern Oscillation event, which reached its peak in January 1983 (near the beginning of the fifth data year). An outgoing longwave radiation subset of the data, for the period June 1980 to October 1983, was processed to enhance spatial resolution. This atlas contains the analyses of the resultant fields. In addition, a set of anomaly maps, based on a definition of pre-El Nino climatology, is included. Together, these two sets of maps provide the first broadband glimpse of the terrestrial outgoing longwave radiation response to the El Nino event.

Kyle, H. L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Influences of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the Timing of the North American Spring

Detrended, modelled first leaf dates for 856 sites across North America for the period 1900-2008 are used to examine how the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) separately and together might influence the timing of spring. Although spring (mean March through April) ENSO and PDO signals are apparent in first leaf dates, the signals are not statistically significant (at a 95% confidence level (p <0.05)) for most sites. The most significant ENSO/PDO signal in first leaf dates occurs for El Nino and positive PDO conditions. An analysis of the spatial distributions of first leaf dates for separate and combined ENSO/PDO conditions features a northwest-southeast dipole that is significantly (at p <0.05) different than the distributions for neutral conditions. The nature of the teleconnection between Pacific SST's and first leaf dates is evident in comparable composites for detrended sea level pressure (SLP) in the spring months. During positive ENSO/PDO, there is an anomalous flow of warm air from the southwestern US into the northwestern US and an anomalous northeasterly flow of cold air from polar regions into the eastern and southeastern US. These flow patterns are reversed during negative ENSO/PDO. Although the magnitudes of first leaf date departures are not necessarily significantly related to ENSO and PDO, the spatial patterns of departures are significantly related to ENSO and PDO. These significant relations and the long-lived persistence of SSTs provide a potential tool for forecasting the tendencies for first leaf dates to be early or late.

McCabe, Gregory J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Data Assimilation Into a Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model: Application to the 1997-1998 El Nino

As part of JPL's ocean data assimilation effort to study ocean circulation and seasonal-interannual climate variability, sea level anomaly observed by TOPEX altimeter, together with sea surface temperature and wind stress data, are assimilated into a simple coupled ocean atmosphere model of the tropical Pacific. Model-data consistency is examined. Impact of the assimilation (as initialization) on El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts is evaluated. The coupled model consists of a shallow water component with two baroclinic modes, an Ekman shear layer, a simplified mixed-layer temperature equation, and a statistical atmosphere based on dominant correlations between historical surface temperature and wind stress anomaly data. The adjoins method is used to fit the coupled model to the data over various six-month periods from late 1996 to early 1998 by optimally adjusting the initial state, model parameters, and basis functions of the statistical atmosphere. On average, the coupled model can be fitted to the data to approximately within the data and representation errors (5 cm, 0.5 C, and 10 sq m/sq m for sea level, surface temperature, and pseudo wind stress anomalies, respectively). The estimated fields resemble observed spatio-temporal structure reasonably well. Hindcasts/forecasts of the 1997/1998 El Nino initialized from forced estimated ocean states and parameters are much more realistic than those simply initialized from ocean states (see figure below). In particular, the ability of the model to produce significant warming beyond the initial state is dramatically improved. Parameter estimation, which compensates for some model errors, is found to be important to obtaining better fits of the model to data and to improving forecasts.

Lee, Tong↗
NASA NTRS2008

Effects of the 2006 El Nino on Tropospheric Ozone and Carbon Monoxide: Implications for Dynamics and Biomass Burning

We have studied the effects of the 2006 El Nino on tropospheric O3 and CO at tropical and sub-tropical latitudes measured from the OMI and MLS instruments on the Aura satellite. The 2006 El Nino-induced drought allowed forest fires set to clear land to burn out of control during October and November in the Indonesian region. The effects of these fires are clearly seen in the enhancement of GO concentration measured from the MLS instrument. We have used a global model of atmospheric chemistry and transport (GMI CTM) to quantify the relative irrrportance of biomass burning and large scale transport: in producing observed changes in tropospheric O3 and CO . The model results show that during October and November both biomass burning and meteorological changes contributed almost equally to the observed increase in tropospheric O3 in the Indonesian region. The biomass component was 4-6 DU but it was limited to the Indonesian region where the fires were most intense, The dynamical component was 4-8 DU but it covered a much larger area in the Indian Ocean extending from South East Asia in the north to western Australia in the south. By December 2006, the effect of biomass taming was reduced to zero and the obsemed changes in tropospheric O3 were mostly due to dynamical effects. The model results show an increase of 2-3% in the global burden of tropospheric ozone. In comparison, the global burdean of CO increased by 8-12%.

Chandra, S.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Rainfall over oceans inferred from Nimbus 7 SMMR - Application to 1982-83 El Nino

Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) measurements at five frequencies in the region 6.6 to 37 GHz, at a resolution of 155 km, are analyzed to infer precipitation over the global oceans. The microwave data show, on this spatial scale, that the combined liquid water in the clouds and rain increases the brightness temperature almost linearly with frequency in the 6.6-18-GHz region, while at 37 GHz such a simple relationship is not noticed. Further, as the atmospheric water-vapor absorption and the effects of scattering by precipitation particles are relatively weak at 6.6 and 10.7 GHz, a technique to remotely sense the liquid water content in the atmosphere is developed based on the brightness measurements at these two frequencies. Seasonal mean patterns of liquid water content in the atmosphere derived from SMMR over global oceans relate closely to climatological patterns of precipitation. Based on this, an empirical relationship is derived to estimate precipitation over the global oceans, with an accuracy of about + or - 30 percent, on a seasonal basis from satellite measurements made during the three years (1979-81) before the recent El Nino event. The deviations from these three-year means, in the precipitation, produced by the 1982-83 el Nino event are then deduced from the SMMR measurements. In the Pacific, the precipitation over the ITCZ in the north, the South Pacific Convergence Zone, and the oceans around Indonesia is drastically reduced. At the same time a substantial increase in precipitation is observed over the normally dry central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Prabhakara, C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Sensitivity of the Atmospheric Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events to Modeled SSTs and Future Climate Forcings

Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. Under present-day climate conditions, WPEN events generate poleward propagating wavetrains and enhance midlatitude planetary wave activity, weakening the stratospheric polar vortices. The late 21st century extratropical atmospheric response to WPEN events is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM), version 2. GEOSCCM simulations are forced by projected late 21st century concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and by SSTs and sea ice concentrations from an existing ocean-atmosphere simulation. Despite known ocean-atmosphere model biases, the prescribed SST fields represent a best estimate of the structure of late 21st century WPEN events. The future Arctic vortex response is qualitatively similar to that observed in recent decades but is weaker in late winter. This response reflects the weaker SST forcing in the Nino 3.4 region and subsequently weaker Northern Hemisphere tropospheric teleconnections. The Antarctic stratosphere does not respond to WPEN events in a future climate, reflecting a change in tropospheric teleconnections: The meridional wavetrain weakens while a more zonal wavetrain originates near Australia. Sensitivity simulations show that a strong poleward wavetrain response to WPEN requires a strengthening and southeastward extension of the South Pacific Convergence Zone; this feature is not captured by the late 21st century modeled SSTs. Expected future increases in GHGs and decreases in ODSs do not affect the polar stratospheric responses to WPEN.

stratosphere↗