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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Market Feedback Framework for Improved Estimates of the Arbitrage Value of Energy Storage Using Price-Taker Models

Price-taker (PT) models are often used to assess the potential value or revenue of energy arbitrage opportunities for energy storage in wholesale markets. But as greater amounts of energy storage are deployed on the grid, current PT models fail to predict the effects that energy storage itself can have on market prices. This can lead to an overestimation of the economic value of storage and an inability to capture price suppression. In this paper, we propose the use of a modified PT model to simulate the impact of increased storage deployment on energy prices and the resulting impact on revenue. Our method uses a gradient-boosting regressor to estimate the impact on prices, and we apply our method on historical price data from the PJM and California Independent System Operator wholesale markets. We use this approach to explore possible causes of electricity price suppression that occur from storage capacity additions, which is generally not possible with PT models.

arbitrage↗
DOE OSTI2023

The winter central Arctic surface energy budget: A model evaluation using observations from the MOSAiC campaign

This study evaluates the simulation of wintertime (15 October, 2019, to 15 March, 2020) statistics of the central Arctic near-surface atmosphere and surface energy budget observed during the MOSAiC campaign with short-term forecasts from 7 state-of-the-art operational and experimental forecast systems. Five of these systems are fully coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere models. Forecast systems need to simultaneously simulate the impact of radiative effects, turbulence, and precipitation processes on the surface energy budget and near-surface atmospheric conditions in order to produce useful forecasts of the Arctic system. This study focuses on processes unique to the Arctic, such as, the representation of liquid-bearing clouds at cold temperatures and the representation of a persistent stable boundary layer. It is found that contemporary models still struggle to maintain liquid water in clouds at cold temperatures. Given the simple balance between net longwave radiation, sensible heat flux, and conductive ground flux in the wintertime Arctic surface energy balance, a bias in one of these components manifests as a compensating bias in other terms. This study highlights the different manifestations of model bias and the potential implications on other terms. Three general types of challenges are found within the models evaluated: representing the radiative impact of clouds, representing the interaction of atmospheric heat fluxes with sub-surface fluxes (i.e., snow and ice properties), and representing the relationship between stability and turbulent heat fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-Fidelity Heavy-Duty Vehicle Modeling Using Sparse Telematics Data

Heavy-duty commercial vehicles consume a significant amount of energy due to their large size and mass, directly leading to vehicle operators prioritizing energy efficiency to reduce operational costs and comply with environmental regulations. One tool that can be used for the evaluation of energy efficiency in heavy-duty vehicles is the evaluation of energy efficiency using vehicle modeling and simulation. Simulation provides a path for energy efficiency improvement by allowing rapid experimentation of different vehicle characteristics on fuel consumption without the need for costly physical prototyping. The research presented in this paper focuses on using real-world, sparsely sampled telematics data from a large fleet of heavy-duty vehicles to create high-fidelity models for simulation. Samples in the telematics dataset are collected sporadically, resulting in sparse data with an infrequent and irregular sampling rate. Captured in the dataset was geospatial information, time series measurements, and vehicle-specific metadata from a subset of 96 vehicles from varied geographic regions across North America. A series of custom algorithms was developed to process vehicle data and derive both vehicle model input parameters and representative drive cycles. Derived models provide a basis on which to simulate real-world vehicles and iterate on vehicle aerodynamics, auxiliary power loads, transmission shift schedules, and other parameters to achieve reduced fuel consumption and increase energy efficiency. Notably, these models were developed without the use of expensive field data collection, using only data collected through fleet telematics. Processed representative drive cycles are used to validate the fuel economy of derived models. The models developed through this research allow for more representative vehicle simulations with increased flexibility regarding vehicle-to-vehicle variations.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Flexible Reinforcement Learning Framework for Building Control using EnergyPlus-Modelica Energy Models

In recent years, reinforcement learning (RL) methods have been greatly enhanced by leveraging deep learning approaches. RL methods applied to building control have shown potential in many applications due to their ability to complement or replace conventional methods such as model-based or rule-based controls. However, RL-based building control software is likely tailored either to one target building system or to a specific RL method so that significant additional effort would be required to customize the RL-based controller for use in other building systems or with other RL approaches. Also, RL-based building controls usually depend on building energy simulations to train controllers, so emulating building dynamics (i.e., thermal dynamics and control dynamics) and capturing sub-hourly dynamic profiles are crucial to further the development of effective RL-based building control methods. To address these challenges, we present an open source RL-based control software employing a high-fidelity hybrid EnergyPlus-Modelica building energy model which emulates building dynamics at 1-minute resolution. This software consists of decoupled components (environment, building emulator, control agent, and RL algorithm), which allows for quick prototyping and benchmarking of standard RL algorithms in different systems; for example, a single component can be replaced without revising all of the software. To demonstrate this software framework, we conducted a benchmark study using an EnergyPlus-Modelica building energy model for a Chicago office building with an RL-based controller to dynamically control the chilled water temperature setpoint and the air handling unit supply air temperature setpoint on selected floors.

Lee, Joon-Yong↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Surrogate model evaluation and building energy benchmarking for commercial buildings

Building energy consumption benchmarking involves challenges associated with various energy patterns for different building types; heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system types; and climates. Given significant variation in energy use patterns, accurate prediction of long-term energy use using surrogate models remains challenging. Multiple linear regression (MLR) is commonly used for building energy benchmarking because of its simple structure; however, it lacks accuracy compared to other black-box models. Although many studies have compared surrogate models and offer guidance on model selection based on metrics, they do not provide detailed analysis on improving the surrogate model accuracy. In this paper, we implement a surrogate model using polynomial ridge regression (i.e., MLR with interaction terms combined with ridge regularization) for small office and retail strip mall buildings across six HVAC system types and all climate zones, for electricity and natural gas in baseline and proposed scenarios. A simulation workflow is developed using OpenStudio TM /EnergyPlus TM to generate simulation data using measures over a wide range of efficiency inputs. Enhancements based on statistical insights are used for improving the model accuracy using filters, input transformations, and change points. Surrogate models achieved average coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CVRMSE) values of 2.17, 1.06, 2.05, and 3.26 for proposed electricity, proposed natural gas, baseline electricity, and baseline natural gas, respectively, with enhancements reducing CVRMSE by an average of 14.9% across all combinations. We provide model interpretation via Shapley additive explanations to determine which input variables most influence energy consumption and provide supportive arguments for enhancements.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Limits on the Range and Rate of Change in Power Take-Off Load in Ocean Wave Energy Conversion: A Study Using Model Predictive Control

Previous work comparing power take-off (PTO) architectures for ocean wave-powered reverse osmosis suggests that variable displacement in the wave energy converter (WEC)-driven pump does not offer a significant performance advantage. A limitation of that study is that the WEC was subject to a constant load within a given sea state (“Coulomb damping”) and did not account for controlled, moment-to-moment variation of the PTO load enabled by a variable displacement pump. This study explores the potential performance advantage of a variable PTO load over Coulomb damping. Model predictive control is used to provide optimal load control with constraints on the PTO load. The constraints include minimum and maximum loads and a limit on the rate of load adjustment. Parameter studies on these constraints enable conclusions about PTO design requirements in addition to providing an estimated performance advantage over Coulomb damping. Numerical simulation of the Oyster 1 WEC is carried out with performance weighted by historical sea state data from Humboldt Bay, CA. The results show a performance advantage of up to 20% higher yearly-average power absorption over Coulomb damping. Additionally, the parameter studies suggest that the PTO load should be adjustable down to at least 25% of the maximum load and should be adjustable between the minimum and maximum loads within a few seconds.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

A coupled ground heat flux–surface energy balance model of evaporation using thermal remote sensing observations

Abstract. One of the major undetermined problems in evaporation (ET) retrieval using thermal infrared remote sensing is the lack of a physically based ground heat flux (G) model and its integration within the surface energy balance (SEB) equation. Here, we present a novel approach based on coupling a thermal inertia (TI)-based mechanistic G model with an analytical surface energy balance model, Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC, version STIC1.2). The coupled model is named STIC-TI. The model is driven by noon–night (13:30 and 01:30 local time) land surface temperature, surface albedo, and a vegetation index from MODIS Aqua in conjunction with a clear-sky net radiation sub-model and ancillary meteorological information. SEB flux estimates from STIC-TI were evaluated with respect to the in situ fluxes from eddy covariance measurements in diverse ecosystems of contrasting aridity in both the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Sensitivity analysis revealed substantial sensitivity of STIC-TI-derived fluxes due to the land surface temperature uncertainty. An evaluation of noontime G (Gi) estimates showed 12 %–21 % error across six flux tower sites, and a comparison between STIC-TI versus empirical G models also revealed the substantially better performance of the former. While the instantaneous noontime net radiation (RNi) and latent heat flux (LEi) were overestimated (15 % and 25 %), sensible heat flux (Hi) was underestimated (22 %). Overestimation (underestimation) of LEi (Hi) was associated with the overestimation of net available energy (RNi−Gi) and use of unclosed surface energy balance flux measurements in LEi (Hi) validation. The mean percent deviations in Gi and Hi estimates were found to be strongly correlated with satellite day–night view angle difference in parabolic and linear pattern, and a relatively weak correlation was found between day–night view angle difference versus LEi deviation. Findings from this parameter-sparse coupled G–ET model can make a valuable contribution to mapping and monitoring the spatiotemporal variability of ecosystem water stress and evaporation using noon–night thermal infrared observations from future Earth observation satellite missions such as TRISHNA, LSTM, and SBG.

Bhattacharya, Bimal K.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of low-exergy heating and cooling systems and topology optimization for deep energy savings at the urban district level

District energy systems have the potential to achieve deep energy savings by leveraging the density and diversity of loads in urban districts. However, planning and adoption of district thermal energy systems is hindered by the analytical burden and high infrastructure costs. It is hypothesized that network topology optimization would enable wider adoption of advanced (ambient temperature) district thermal energy systems, resulting in energy savings. In this study, energy modeling is used to compare the energy performance of “conventional” and “advanced” district thermal energy systems at the urban district level, and a partial exhaustive search is used to evaluate a heuristic for the topology optimization problem. For the prototypical district considered, advanced district thermal energy systems mated with low-exergy building heating and cooling systems achieved a source energy use intensity that was 49% lower than that of conventional systems. The minimal spanning tree heuristic was demonstrated to be effective for the network topology optimization problem in the context of a prototypical district, and contributes to mitigating the problem’s computational complexity. The work presented in this paper demonstrates the potential of advanced district thermal energy systems to achieve deep energy savings, and advances to addressing barriers to their adoption through topology optimization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

District-Scale Analysis of Electricity Load and Strategies to Improve Energy Reliability Using Prototype District Models

Projected increases in electricity demand in the U.S. highlight the urgent need for effective load management to ensure grid reliability. As the building sector accounts for approximately 75% of electricity usage, enhancing energy efficiency and flexibility in this sector is crucial. Adopting district-level approaches offers significant advantages over traditional individual building analyses by enabling shared infrastructure and economies of scale. To navigate the data and computational challenges associated with modeling energy at the district level, prototype district models have been proposed as holistic, system-level solutions that capture complex interactions within typical configurations. This study presents these models as a reference tool for analyzing district-scale energy systems across various climate zones in the U.S. Developed with input from stakeholders, these models integrate varied building characteristics, inter-building connections, and energy system interactions. A case study utilizing the Urban Edge prototype district model, implemented on the URBANopt™ platform, evaluates multiple demand scenarios and the impact of distributed energy resources such as fuel-fired backup generators, photovoltaic systems, and batteries. Findings suggest that while new electric systems can significantly reduce annual energy use, they may also elevate peak electricity loads, with a notable 43% increase in heating-dominant climate zone 5B. The optimal backup power solutions vary based on location, influenced by factors such as utility rates and incentives. For example, PV and batteries perform well in high-cost regions like New York City, while diesel backup generators are more suitable for backup needs in climate zone 3A, such as Atlanta. Thus, this research highlights the importance of prototype district models for future district-scale energy planning.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Metadata Schemas and Ontologies for Building Energy Applications: A Critical Review and Use Case Analysis

With the increasing digitalization of processes throughout the lifecycle of buildings, data exchanged between stakeholders and between building systems has grown significantly. However, a lack of semantic interoperability between data in different systems is still prevalent, hindering the development of applications that can be reused across buildings and limiting the scalability of innovative solutions. Semantics refers to the description of the meaning of the data in a way that can be consistently understood by applications. Recently, several competing initiatives have been developing metadata schemas and ontologies to express this semantic information for different applications in the building domain. This paper systematically reviews these schemas and conducts an analysis of five of them to evaluate their applicability to three high-value use cases for building operations: energy audits, automated fault detection and diagnostics and optimal control. The survey finds 40 schemas published in the last 10 years but but their actual use in industry is difficult to estimate. Among the five selected ontologies, several gaps are highlighted in relation to the three use cases. Recommendations for the future include better harmonization of these initiatives, more centralized repositories and search engines for these schemas as well as better industry engagement to facilitate their adoption.

Smart Building, Sematic, Metadata, Ontology, Data ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Pyrocumulonimbus Clouds Using a Multiscale Wildfire Simulation Framework

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds, driven by extreme fires under favorable meteorological conditions, can inject smoke into the stratosphere at magnitudes comparable to those of moderate volcanic eruptions, potentially altering the global radiative balance and atmospheric composition. However, simulating pyroCb is particularly challenging in Earth system models. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we developed a novel global multiscale framework to model pyroCb events in California, which includes a high‐resolution fire radiative power time series, a one‐dimensional plume‐rise parameterization, a fire‐induced vertical water vapor transport scheme, and a surface wildfire sensible heat flux representation. Our simulation successfully reproduces many pyroCb features, including cloud height, spatiotemporal evolution, and convective intensity in comparison with satellite and ground‐based observations. Sensitivity experiments show that realistic pyroCb simulation depends on vertical water vapor transport. These advances provide a basis for future exploration of pyroCb impacts at regional and global scales within climate models.

E3SM↗
DOE OSTI2020

Raising the Bar in High Performance Laboratory Design

Laboratory facilities are expensive to build and operate, they consume energy at high rates compared to other types of buildings, and modifications are frequently required to accommodate ever-changing research activities. PNNL sought ways to address these issues in the design and construction of a 14,700 sq. ft. new laboratory building. To improve adaptability to change a high roof structure was used that allows raising the ceiling when needed with minimal disruption to installed HVAC and electrical utilities. Also, HVAC equipment was located on a mezzanine above the central corridor rather than above ceilings. This eliminates the need for maintenance personnel to routinely access lab spaces, reducing disruption to research staff and improving maintenance access. To improve the reliability of operations while reducing energy consumption, heat pipe heat recovery with evaporative cooling, zoned heating/cooling coils, high-efficiency condensing boilers, district cooling, VAV fume hoods, DDC controls, energy use monitoring, and implementation of the US Department of Energy’s Guiding Principles for Federal Leadership in Sustainable Buildings were all used. The energy model developed during design projected energy use at 2,840 MBtu/yr, a 13.5% savings over ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2010. The first full year of operation resulted in actual energy use of 2,661 MBtu, a savings of 19% over Standard 90.1. As a result of the project design’s demonstrated success, these strategies will be incorporated into a significantly larger (125,000 sq ft), $65 million lab facility to be constructed on the PNNL campus in 2020.

Scott, Jeffery M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Informing electrification strategies of residential neighborhoods with urban building energy modeling

Electrifying end uses is a key strategy to reducing GHG emissions in buildings. However, it may increase peak electricity demand that triggers the need to upgrade the existing power distribution system, leading to delays in electrification and needs of significant investment. There is also concern that building electrification may cause an increase of energy costs, leading to further energy burden for low-income communities. This study uses the urban scale building modeling tool CityBES to assess the electrification impacts of more than 43,000 residential buildings in a neighborhood of Portland, Oregon, USA. Energy efficiency upgrades were investigated on their potential to mitigate the increase of peak electricity demand and energy burden. Simulation results from the calibrated EnergyPlus models show that electrification with heat pumps for space heating and cooling as well as for domestic water heating can reduce CO2e emissions by 38%, but increase peak electricity demand by about 9% from the baseline building stock. Combining electrification measures and energy efficiency upgrades can reduce CO2e emissions by 48% while reducing peak electricity demand by 6% and saving the median household energy costs by 28%. City and utility decision makers should consider integrating energy efficiency upgrades with electrification measures as an effective residential building electrification strategy, which significantly reduces carbon emissions, caps or even decreases peak demand while reducing energy burden of residents.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Important powertrain dynamics for developing models for control of connected and automated electrified vehicles

Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAV) technology presents significant opportunities for energy saving in the transportation sector. CAV technology forecasts vehicle and powertrain power needs under various terrain, ambient, and traffic conditions. Integration of the CAV technology in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) provides the opportunity for optimal vehicle operation. Indeed, Hybrid Electric Vehicle powertrains present high degrees of flexibility and possibility for choosing optimum powertrain modes based on the predicted traction power needs. In modeling complex CAV powertrain dynamics, the modeler needs to consider short-time scale powertrain dynamics, such as engine transients, and hysteresis of mode-switching for a multi-mode HEV. Therefore, the powertrain dynamics essential for developing powertrain controllers for a class of connected HEVs is presented. To this end, control-oriented powertrain dynamic models for a test vehicle consisting of full electric, hybrid, and conventional engine operating modes are developed. The resulting powertrain model can forecast vehicle traction torque and energy consumption for the specified prediction horizon of the test vehicle. The model considers different operating modes and associated energy penalty terms for mode switching. Thus, the vehicle controller can determine the optimum powertrain mode, torque, and speed for forecasted vehicle operation via utilizing connectivity data. The powertrain model is validated against the experimental data and shows prediction error of less than 5% for predicting vehicle energy consumption. The model is used to create energy penalty maps that can be used for CAV control, for example fuel penalty map for engine torque changes (10–40 Nm) at each engine speed. The results of model-based optimization show optimum switching delays ranging from 0.4 to 1.4 s to avoid hysteresis in mode switching.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stability of Cu(In x Ga 1− x )Se 2 Solar Cells Utilizing RbF Postdeposition Treatment under a Sulfur Atmosphere

Alkali halide postdeposition treatments (PDTs) have become a key tool to maximize efficiency in Cu(In x Ga 1− x )Se 2 (CIGS) photovoltaics. RbF PDTs have emerged as an alternative to the more common Na‐ and K‐based techniques. This study utilizes temperature‐dependent current–voltage ( JVT ) measurements to study a unique RbF PDT performed in a S atmosphere. The samples are measured before and after 6 months in a desiccator to study device stability. Both samples contain Na and K which diffuse from the soda–lime glass substrate. A reference sample and a RbF + S PDT sample both show the development of a rear contact barrier after aging. The contact barrier is higher for the RbF + S PDT sample, leading to decreased current in forward bias. Series resistance is also higher in the RbF + S PDT device which leads to lower fill factor. However, after aging the reference sample has a larger decrease in open‐circuit voltage ( V OC ). Ideality factor measurements suggest Shockley–Read–Hall recombination dominates both samples. V OC versus temperature and a temperature‐dependent activation energy model are used to calculate diode activation energies for each sample condition. Both techniques produce similar values that indicate recombination primarily occurs within the bulk absorber.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Conservation of Dry Air, Water, and Energy in CAM and Its Potential Impact on Tropical Rainfall

Abstract For the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), an adjustment is needed to conserve dry air mass. This adjustment exposes an inconsistency in how CAM6’s energy budget incorporates water—in CAM6 water in the vapor phase has energy, but condensed phases of water do not. When water vapor condenses, only its latent energy is retained in the model, while its remaining internal, potential, and kinetic energy are lost. A global fixer is used in the default CAM6 model to maintain global energy conservation, but locally the energy tendency associated with water changing phase violates the divergence theorem. This error in energy tendency is intrinsically tied to the water vapor tendency, and reaches its highest values in regions of heavy rainfall, where the error can be as high as 40 W m −2 annually averaged. Several possible changes are outlined within this manuscript that would allow CAM6 to satisfy the divergence theorem locally. These fall into one of two categories: 1) modifying the surface flux to balance the local atmospheric energy tendency and 2) modifying the local atmospheric tendency to balance the surface plus top-of-atmosphere energy fluxes. To gauge which aspects of the simulated climate are most sensitive to this error, the simplest possible change—where condensed water still does not carry energy and a local energy fixer is used in place of the global one—is implemented within CAM6. Comparing this experiment with the default configuration of CAM6 reveals precipitation, particularly its variability, to be highly sensitive to the energy budget formulation. Significance Statement This study examines and explains spurious regional sources and sinks of energy in a widely used climate model. These energy errors result from not tracking energy associated with water after it transitions from the vapor phase to either liquid or ice. Instead, the model used a global fixer to offset the energy tendency related to the energy sources and sinks associated with condensed water species. We replace this global fixer with a local one to examine the model sensitivity to the regional energy error and find a large sensitivity in the simulated hydrologic cycle. This work suggests that the underlying thermodynamic assumptions in the model should be revisited to build confidence in the model-simulated regional-scale water and energy cycles.

Harrop, Bryce E.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vulnerability and resilience of urban energy ecosystems to extreme climate events: A systematic review and perspectives

We reviewed the present studies on the vulnerability and resilience of the energy ecosystem (most parts of the energy ecosystem), considering extreme climate events. This study revealed that the increased interactions formed during the transformation of the energy landscape into an ecosystem could notably increase the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure. Such complex ecosystem cannot be assessed using the present state of the art models used by the energy system modelers. Therefore, this study introduces a novel analogy known as the COVID analogy to understand the propagation of disruption within and beyond the energy ecosystem and organized the present state of the art based on the COVID analogy. The analogy helps to categorize the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure into three stages. The study revealed that although there are many publications covering the vulnerability and resilience of the energy infrastructure, considering extreme climate events, the majority are focused on the direct impact of extreme climate on the energy ecosystem. In addition, most of the studies do not consider the impact of future climate variations during this assessment. The propagation of disruptions was assessed mainly for wildfires and hurricanes. Further, there is a clear research gap in considering vulnerability assessment for interconnected energy infrastructure. Here, the transformation of energy systems into a complex ecosystem notably increases the complexity, making it difficult to assess vulnerability and resilience. A shift from a centralized to decentralized modeling architecture could be beneficial when considering the complexities brought by that transformation. Hybrid models consisting of both physical and data-driven machine learning techniques could also be beneficial in this context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗