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At least 73 records · Page 4

Vegetation Warming Experiment: 15N Uptake Experiment Arctagrostis latifolia 15N Uptake, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2018

This dataset consists of atom percentage of 15N in excess of natural abundance after injection and incubation, uptake rate of 15N during incubation period and percent recovery of 15N labeled ammonia in A. latifolia tissues in vegetation warming experiment enclosures and paired control plots located on the BEO, Utqiagvik, Alaska. Vegetation warming chambers (Zero Power) were deployed on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. These chambers (Figure 1) consistently elevated air temperatures by approximately 4°C using a self-venting system described by Lewin et al (2017). Five chambers were deployed from June 17, 2018 to September 24, 2018 on the BEO within a 1 km2 area centered on 71.275N, -156.641W. Each chamber was co-located with an ambient plot where temperatures were not manipulated on patches of tundra containing the target species Arctagrostis latifolia. An intensive field campaign in late July investigated the impact of warming had on A. latifolia biomass, chemistry, and uptake of 15N labeled ammonia that was injected into the surface soils for one week. Initial measurements were taken on July 21, 2018. Harvest occurred on July 27, 2018. Water-extractable nutrients in soils were measured in July following harvests of A. latifolia plants and underlying soils. Availability of ammonia, nitrate, and phosphate throughout the growing season was measured by extracting nutrients bound to anion and cation binding resins deployed from July through September. Environmental variables (thaw depth, surface soil temperatures, surface soil moisture) were measured. Leaf traits and root traits of A. latifolia were also measured. Files include one *.csv data file and one *.pdf user guide. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: 15N Uptake Experiment Inorganic Nitrogen and Phosphorus on Resins, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2018

This dataset consists of inorganic ammonia, nitrate, and phosphate bound to anion and cation binding resins deployed from July through September 2018 in the surface soils of vegetation warming experiment enclosures and paired control plots. Vegetation warming chambers (Zero Power) were deployed on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. These chambers (Figure 1) consistently elevated air temperatures by approximately 4°C using a self-venting system described by Lewin et al (2017). Five chambers were deployed from June 17, 2018 to September 24, 2018 on the BEO within a 1 km2 area centered on 71.275N, -156.641W. Each chamber was co-located with an ambient plot where temperatures were not manipulated on patches of tundra containing the target species Arctagrostis latifolia. An intensive field campaign in late July investigated the impact of warming had on A. latifolia biomass, chemistry, and uptake of 15N labeled ammonia that was injected into the surface soils for one week. Initial measurements were taken on July 21, 2018. Harvest occurred on July 27, 2018. Water-extractable nutrients in soils were measured in July following harvests of A. latifolia plants and underlying soils. Availability of ammonia, nitrate, and phosphate throughout the growing season was measured by extracting nutrients bound to anion and cation binding resins deployed from July through September. Environmental variables (thaw depth, surface soil temperatures, surface soil moisture) were measured. Leaf traits and root traits of A. latifolia were also measured. Included is one *.csv data file and one *.pdf user guide. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: 15N Uptake Experiment Environmental Observations and Thaw Depth, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2018

This dataset consists of measured soil thaw depth, soil temperature, soil moisture, and Arctagrostis latifolia height in vegetation warming experiment enclosures and paired control plots. Vegetation warming chambers (Zero Power) were deployed on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. These chambers (Figure 1) consistently elevated air temperatures by approximately 4°C using a self-venting system described by Lewin et al (2017). Five chambers were deployed from June 17, 2018 to September 24, 2018 on the BEO within a 1 km2 area centered on 71.275N, -156.641W. Each chamber was co-located with an ambient plot where temperatures were not manipulated on patches of tundra containing the target species Arctagrostis latifolia. An intensive field campaign in late July investigated the impact of warming had on A. latifolia biomass, chemistry, and uptake of 15N labeled ammonia that was injected into the surface soils for one week. Initial measurements were taken on July 21, 2018. Harvest occurred on July 27, 2018. Water-extractable nutrients in soils were measured in July following harvests of A. latifolia plants and underlying soils. Availability of ammonia, nitrate, and phosphate throughout the growing season was measured by extracting nutrients bound to anion and cation binding resins deployed from July through September. Environmental variables (thaw depth, surface soil temperatures, surface soil moisture) were measured. Leaf traits and root traits of A. latifolia were also measured. Included are two *.csv data files and one *.pdf user guide. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiscale Wildfire Simulation Framework and Remote Sensing

Wildfire as one type of climate extreme events causes huge socioeconomic losses and damages. Large wildfires (i.e., generated pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb)) can inject tremendous amounts of smoke into the stratosphere, where black carbon and organic carbon aerosols can persist months to years and influence climate by imposing a significant reduction in the radiative forcing like that associated with large volcanic eruptions or proposed via climate interventions such as geoengineering. Both observations and numerical modeling results clearly indicate an increasing trend in wildfire frequency and intensity in many regions during the recent decades with climate change. However, current understanding of wildfire remains largely uncertain owing to limitations of modeling capabilities in representing the multiscale wildfire physics and dynamics and a scarcity of observations constraining important wildfire and environmental variables. This study primarily aims to improve the wildfire simulation capabilities in the state-of-the-art climate model by filling in two major gaps: (1) model resolution is typically too coarse to resolve fine scale processes associated with fires, and (2) chemistry and aerosol processes in fire smoke are poorly represented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation Warming Experiment: 15N Uptake Experiment Water-Extractable Soil Nutrients, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2018

This dataset consists of measured water-extractable carbon and nutrients measured on soils collected from warming experiment enclosures and paired control plots. Harvest types include both natural abundance and enriched soils. Vegetation warming chambers (Zero Power) were deployed on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. These chambers (Figure 1) consistently elevated air temperatures by approximately 4°C using a self-venting system described by Lewin et al (2017). Five chambers were deployed from June 17, 2018 to September 24, 2018 on the BEO within a 1 km2 area centered on 71.275N, -156.641W. Each chamber was co-located with an ambient plot where temperatures were not manipulated on patches of tundra containing the target species Arctagrostis latifolia. An intensive field campaign in late July investigated the impact of warming had on A. latifolia biomass, chemistry, and uptake of 15N labeled ammonia that was injected into the surface soils for one week. Initial measurements were taken on July 21, 2018. Harvest occurred on July 27, 2018. Water-extractable nutrients in soils were measured in July following harvests of A. latifolia plants and underlying soils. Availability of ammonia, nitrate, and phosphate throughout the growing season was measured by extracting nutrients bound to anion and cation binding resins deployed from July through September. Environmental variables (thaw depth, surface soil temperatures, surface soil moisture) were measured. Leaf traits and root traits of A. latifolia were also measured. The data package includes one *.csv data file and one *.pdf user guide. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Root exudation links root traits to soil functioning in agroecosystems

Root exudation is a key process for plant nutrient acquisition, but the controls on root exudation and its relationship to soil C and N processes in agroecosystems are unclear. We hypothesized that root exudation rates would be related to root morphological traits, N fertilization, and soil moisture. We also anticipated that root exudation would be correlated with bulk soil enzyme activity. Root exudation, root traits, and bulk soil extracellular enzyme activity were assessed in maize (Zea mays L.), soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.), biomass sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench), giant miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus), and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.). Measurements were taken in situ during two growing seasons with contrasting precipitation regimes, and N fertilization rate was varied in sorghum during one year. Specific root exudation (per unit root surface area) was negatively related to root diameter and was generally higher in annuals than perennials. Sorghum N fertilization did not affect root exudation rates, and soil moisture regime had no effect on annual root exudation rates within maize, sorghum, and miscanthus. Specific root exudation was negatively related to bulk soil C- and N-degrading soil enzyme activities. Intrinsic plant characteristics appeared more important than environmental variables in controlling in situ root exudation rates. The relationships between root diameter, root exudation, and soil C and N processes link root morphological traits to soil functions and demonstrate the potential tradeoffs among plant nutrient acquisition strategies in agroecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data from: Understanding the biogeochemical and spatial drivers of methane and carbon dioxide fluxes in a large temperate reservoir

This dataset contains spatially resolved measurements of CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes and associated environmental variables collected across 200 sites in Douglas Reservoir (Tennessee, USA) between July 29-August 2, 2024. Measurements include diffusive fluxes of CO₂ and CH₄, CH₄ ebullition, and biogeochemical and spatial variables such as dissolved oxygen, temperature, conductivity, chlorophyll-a, pH, water depth, and distance from the dam. Sampling was conducted using a spatially balanced design to capture longitudinal and depth-related gradients throughout the reservoir. The dataset is structured to support analyses of spatial variability, flux pathway comparisons, and modeling approaches (e.g., spatial statistics and machine learning) aimed at understanding controls on reservoir CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes and improving upscaling to whole-reservoir and regional estimates.

Neeper, Jamie [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000842342101)↗

Development of a multi-layer canopy model for E3SM Land Model with support for heterogeneous computing

The vertical structure of vegetation canopies creates micro-climates. However, the land components of most Earth System Models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), typically neglect vertical canopy structure by using a single layer big-leaf representation to simulate water, CO 2 , and energy exchanges between the land and the atmosphere. In this study, we developed a Multi-Layer Canopy Model for the E3SM Land Model to resolve the micro-climate created by vegetation canopies. The model developed in this study re-implements the CLM-ml_v1 to support heterogeneous computing architectures consisting of CPUs and GPUs and includes three additional optimization-based stomatal conductance models. The use of Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation provides a speedup of 25–50 times on a GPU relative to a CPU. The numerical implementation of the model was verified against CLM-ml_v1 for a month-long simulation using data from the Ameriflux US-University of Michigan Biological Station site. Model structural uncertainty was explored by performing control simulations for five stomatal conductance models that exclude and include the control of plant hydrodynamics (PHD) on photosynthesis. The bias in simulated sensible and latent heat fluxes was lower when PHD was accounted for in the model. Additionally, six idealized simulations were performed to study the impact of three environmental variables (i.e. air temperature, atmospheric CO 2 , and soil moisture) on canopy processes (i.e. net CO 2 assimilation, leaf temperature, and leaf water potential). Increasing air temperature reduced net CO 2 assimilation and increased air temperature. Net CO 2 assimilation increased at higher atmospheric CO 2 , while decreasing soil moisture resulted in lower leaf water potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The effects of mixed-species root zones on the resistance of soil bacteria and fungi to long-term experimental and natural reductions in soil moisture

Mixed forest stands tend to be more resistant to drought than species-specific stands partially due to complementarity in root ecology and physiology. For this work, we asked whether complementary differences in the drought resistance of soil microbiomes might contribute to this phenomenon. We experimented on the effects of reduced soil moisture on bacterial and fungal community composition in species-specific (single species) and mixed-species root zones of Norway spruce and European beech forests in a 5-year-old throughfall-exclusion experiment and across seasonal (spring-summer-fall) and latitudinal moisture gradients. Bacteria were most responsive to changes in soil moisture, especially members of Rhizobiales, while fungi were largely unaffected, including ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF). Community resistance was higher in spruce relative to beech root zones, corresponding with the proportions of drought-favored (more in spruce) and drought-sensitive bacterial taxa (more in beech). The spruce soil microbiome also exhibited greater resistance to seasonal changes between spring (wettest) and fall (driest). Mixed-species root zones contained a hybrid of beech- and spruce-associated microbiomes. Several bacterial populations exhibited either enhanced resistance or greater susceptibility to drought in mixed root zones. Overall, patterns in the relative abundances of soil bacteria closely tracked moisture in seasonal and latitudinal precipitation gradients and were more predictive of soil water content than other environmental variables. We conclude that complementary differences in the drought resistance of soil microbiomes can occur and the likeliest form of complementarity in mixed-root zones coincides with the enrichment of drought-tolerant bacteria associated with spruce and the sustenance of EMF by beech.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fabricated ecosystem workshop: bridging laboratory to field science. Workshop report.

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) scientists held a workshop at the DOE BER Genomic Sciences PI meeting on the use of Fabricated Ecosystems in Washington D.C. on February 25th, 2020. Ecosystem fabrication is an approach to creating controlled microbial, soil and plant ecologies within a laboratory setting that enable discovery and dissection of environmental variables, activities, and interactions. At Berkeley Lab, we are developing two systems which span spatial and temporal scales — the EcoFAB and the EcoPOD. The participants of the workshop discussed the potential applications and challenges of using fabricated ecosystems as tools to tackle BER-relevant scientific questions. Specifically, they identified (1) research challenges that would benefit from ready access to this infrastructure (2) identified and prioritized technical challenges that currently limit these systems and (3) discussed how to use them to bridge the gap between lab and field research. To ensure that the fabricated ecosystems , in particular the larger-scale EcoPODs, are of use to as much of the BER community as possible, the workshop participants made the following recommendations: 1. Produce publicly available datasets for a set of control variables. Use for benchmarking, and assessing reproducibility between systems. 2. Implement data standards. 3. Develop/leverage nano/micro sensors and in situ root imaging. 4. Encourage the development of interdisciplinary teams to develop EcoPOD experiments. 5. Develop fabricated ecosystems with size and complexity that sits between the EcoFAB and EcoPOD to accelerate use and access.

42 ENGINEERING↗

New calculations for photosynthesis measurement systems: what’s the impact for physiologists and modelers?

Measurement of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and water vapor (H 2 O) exchanged by leaves has been tremendously important for advancing understanding of plant physiology. Typically, photosynthesis measurement systems estimate the concentration of CO 2 and H 2 O in air that has passed over a leaf inside a leaf chamber. Together with additional information such as flow rate, leaf area, and measurement of environmental variables, the calculations of von Caemmerer & Farquhar (1981), hereafter vCF1981, are used to estimate CO 2 and H 2 O fluxes between the leaf and atmosphere. Furthermore, the combination of the vCF1981 calculations and photosynthesis measurement systems has enabled significant advances in the understanding and model representation of leaf-level photosynthesis and respiration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

eDNAjoint: An R package for interpreting paired or semi‐paired environmental DNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework

Abstract Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is increasingly used in surveys of species distribution as a potentially sensitive and efficient monitoring method. Yet access to modelling tools designed specifically for interpreting this new data type lags behind its ubiquity. While occupancy modelling software has dominated the analytical landscape for eDNA data analysis of single species, this type of model may not always be the most appropriate. The rate of eDNA detection often corresponds to species density, rather than just occupancy, and researchers often have access to observations from non‐genetic sampling methods at the same sites. To provide users access to a modelling framework designed to maximize the use of all available data, we developed an R package, eDNAjoint . The package provides an easy‐to‐use interface for fitting a ‘joint’ model that integrates data from paired or semi‐paired eDNA and traditional surveys in a Bayesian framework. The model can be used to estimate parameters like the probability of a false positive eDNA detection and mean catch rate at a site, and the package allows access to multiple model variations and Bayesian prior customization. Additional functionality can be used for model selection, summarising posteriors and comparing the relative sensitivities of the two survey methods. We demonstrate the use of eDNAjoint by fitting a variation of the model with site‐level covariates that scale the sensitivity of eDNA sampling relative to traditional sampling. The example workflow uses binary eDNA and seine count data for the endangered tidewater goby ( Eucyclogobius newberryi ) from a study by Schmelzle and Kinziger (2016). This use case includes a prior sensitivity analysis and an evaluation of the relationship between detection rates and environmental variables. eDNAjoint has the potential to greatly increase the range of users who will be able to rigorously analyse eDNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework, understand if and how eDNA can improve monitoring practices, and gain confidence in the interpretability of eDNA data.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗

Ecosystem Water‐Saving Timescale Varies Spatially With Typical Drydown Length

Abstract Stomatal optimization theory is a commonly used framework for modeling how plants regulate transpiration in response to the environment. Most stomatal optimization models assume that plants instantaneously optimize a reward function such as carbon gain. However, plants are expected to optimize over longer timescales given the rapid environmental variability they encounter. There are currently no observational constraints on these timescales. Here, a new stomatal model is developed and is used to analyze the timescales over which stomatal closure is optimized. The proposed model assumes plants maximize carbon gain subject to the constraint that they cannot draw down soil moisture below a critical value. The reward is integrated over time, after being weighted by a discount factor that represents the timescale ( τ ) that a plant considers when optimizing stomatal conductance to save water. The model is simple enough to be analytically solvable, which allows the value of τ to be inferred from observations of stomatal behavior under known environmental conditions. The model is fitted to eddy covariance data in a range of ecosystems, finding the value of τ that best predicts the dynamics of evapotranspiration at each site. Across 82 sites, the climate metrics with the strongest correlation to τ are measures of the average number of dry days between rainfall events. Values of τ are similar in magnitude to the longest such dry period encountered in an average year. The results here shed light on which climate characteristics shape spatial variations in ecosystem‐level water use strategy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SPRUCE High-Resolution Minirhizotrons in an Experimentally-Warmed Peatland Provide an Unprecedented Glimpse at Fine Roots and their Fungal Partners: Supporting Data

Images were collected using first of their kind, non-destructive, high-resolution automated minirhizotrons (RhizoSystems, LLC) to assess the response of plant fine-root and fungal mycelium dynamics to elevated temperatures after 4-6 years of whole-ecosystem warming and exposure to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations (e[CO2]) in a peat bog where the SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments) experiment is located. We focused on two SPRUCE experimental plots: Plot 10 has elevated temperature (+9°C) and plot 19 is a control (+0°C). Both have elevated carbon dioxide (e[CO2]). Changes in root and fungal abundance with warming were estimated from a timeseries of landscape-level mosaiced images for each plot by measuring the proportional abundance of five belowground classes: fine roots of vascular plants, ectomycorrhizas, fungal hyphae, fungal rhizomorphs, and fungal sporocarps. To examine root and fungal phenology responses to warming, the length per individual root or fungal structure (except fungal hyphae that did not grow linearly but rather increased in areal coverage) were measured per image area of a set of timeseries patch-level mosaiced images for each plot. The experimental work was conducted in a Picea mariana [black spruce] – Sphagnum spp. bog forest in northern Minnesota, 40 km north of Grand Rapids, in the USDA Forest Service Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF). This ecosystem, which is located at the southern margin of the boreal forest, is considered especially vulnerable to climate change and anticipated to be near its tipping point. These data were used in analyses published in Defrenne et al (2021). This dataset contains 5 data files in comma-separate values (*.csv) format and a compressed folder (*.zip) containing 383 JPEG (*.jpg) images. Data files contain landscape-level assessment of belowground class abundance, patch-level growth phenology, and environmental variables (originally published in Hanson et al., 2016 and Hanson et al 2020). Images were collected with automated minirhizotrons and analyzed for phenology. Additional metadata are provided: 5 data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma-separate values (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The three major axes of terrestrial ecosystem function

The leaf economics spectrum and the global spectrum of plant forms and functions revealed fundamental axes of variation in plant traits, which represent different ecological strategies that are shaped by the evolutionary development of plant species. Ecosystem functions depend on environmental conditions and the traits of species that comprise the ecological communities. However, the axes of variation of ecosystem functions are largely unknown, which limits our understanding of how ecosystems respond as a whole to anthropogenic drivers, climate and environmental variability. Here we derive a set of ecosystem functions from a dataset of surface gas exchange measurements across major terrestrial biomes. We find that most of the variability within ecosystem functions (71.8%) is captured by three key axes. The first axis reflects maximum ecosystem productivity and is mostly explained by vegetation structure. The second axis reflects ecosystem water-use strategies and is jointly explained by variation in vegetation height and climate. The third axis, which represents ecosystem carbon-use efficiency, features a gradient related to aridity, and is explained primarily by variation in vegetation structure. We show that two state-of-the-art land surface models reproduce the first and most important axis of ecosystem functions. However, the models tend to simulate more strongly correlated functions than those observed, which limits their ability to accurately predict the full range of responses to environmental changes in carbon, water and energy cycling in terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ecosystem and soil respiration radiocarbon detects old carbon release as a fingerprint of warming and permafrost destabilization with climate change

The permafrost region has accumulated organic carbon in cold and waterlogged soils over thousands of years and now contains three times as much carbon as the atmosphere. Global warming is degrading permafrost with the potential to accelerate climate change as increased microbial decomposition releases soil carbon as greenhouse gases. A 19-year time series of soil and ecosystem respiration radiocarbon from Alaska provides long-term insight into changing permafrost soil carbon dynamics in a warmer world. Nine per cent of ecosystem respiration and 23% of soil respiration observations had radiocarbon values more than 50‰ lower than the atmospheric value. Furthermore, the overall trend of ecosystem and soil respiration radiocarbon values through time decreased more than atmospheric radiocarbon values did, indicating that old carbon degradation was enhanced. Boosted regression tree analyses showed that temperature and moisture environmental variables had the largest relative influence on lower radiocarbon values. This suggested that old carbon degradation was controlled by warming/permafrost thaw and soil drying together, as waterlogged soil conditions could protect soil carbon from microbial decomposition even when thawed. Overall, changing conditions increasingly favoured the release of old carbon, which is a definitive fingerprint of an accelerating feedback to climate change as a consequence of warming and permafrost destabilization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mitochondrial Genomes of the United States Distribution of Gray Fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) Reveal a Major Phylogeographic Break at the Great Plains Suture Zone

We examined phylogeographic structure in gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) across the United States to identify the location of secondary contact zone(s) between eastern and western lineages and investigate the possibility of additional cryptic intraspecific divergences. We generated and analyzed complete mitochondrial genome sequence data from 75 samples and partial control region mitochondrial DNA sequences from 378 samples to investigate levels of genetic diversity and structure through population- and individual-based analyses including estimates of divergence (FST and SAMOVA), median joining networks, and phylogenies. We used complete mitochondrial genomes to infer phylogenetic relationships and date divergence times of major lineages of Urocyon in the United States. Despite broad-scale sampling, we did not recover additional major lineages of Urocyon within the United States, but identified a deep east-west split (~0.8 million years) with secondary contact at the Great Plains Suture Zone and confirmed the Channel Island fox (Urocyon littoralis) is nested within U. cinereoargenteus. Genetic diversity declined at northern latitudes in the eastern United States, a pattern concordant with post-glacial recolonization and range expansion. Beyond the east-west divergence, morphologically-based subspecies did not form monophyletic groups, though unique haplotypes were often geographically limited. Gray foxes in the United States displayed a deep, cryptic divergence suggesting taxonomic revision is needed. Secondary contact at a common phylogeographic break, the Great Plains Suture Zone, where environmental variables show a sharp cline, suggests ongoing evolutionary processes may reinforce this divergence. Follow-up study with nuclear markers should investigate whether hybridization is occurring along the suture zone and characterize contemporary population structure to help identify conservation units. Comparative work on other wide-ranging carnivores in the region should test whether similar evolutionary patterns and processes are occurring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning to predict biomass sorghum yields under future climate scenarios

Crop yield modeling is critical in the design of national strategies for agricultural production, particularly in the context of a changing climate. Forecasting yields of bioenergy crops at fine spatial resolutions can help to evaluate near-term and long-term pathways for scaling up bio-based fuel and chemical production, and for understanding the impacts of abiotic stressors such as severe droughts and temperature extremes on potential biomass supply. In this work we used a large dataset of 28,364 Sorghum bicolor yield samples (uniquely identified by county and year of observation), environmental variables, and multiple approaches to analyze historical trends in sorghum productivity across the USA. We selected the most accurate machine learning approach (a variation of the random forest approach) to predict future trends in sorghum yields under four greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios and two irrigation regimes. We identified irrigation practices, vapor pressure deficit, and time (a proxy for technological improvement) as the most important predictors of sorghum productivity. Our results showed a decreasing trend of sorghum yields over future years (on average 2.7% from 2018 to 2099), with greater decline under a high GHG emissions scenario (3.8%) and in the absence of irrigation (4.6%). Geographically, we observed the steepest predicted declines in the Great Lakes (8.2%), Upper Midwest (7.5%), and Heartland (6.7%) regions. Our study demonstrates the use of machine learning to identify environmental controllers of sorghum biomass yield and predict yields with reasonable accuracy. These results can inform the development of more realistic biomass supply projections for bioenergy if sorghum production is scaled up. (c) 2020 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗