A multivariate space-time dynamic model for characterizing pathways following the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption
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Garrett, Robert Charles↗
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The Chemical and Dynamical Responses of Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide to the Eruption of Mt. Pinatubo
Observations have shown that the concentration of nitrogen dioxide decreased in both hemispheres in the years following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. In contrast, the observed ozone response was largely asymmetrical with respect to the equator, with a decrease in the northern hemisphere and little or no change in the southern hemisphere. Simulations including enhanced heterogeneous chemistry due to the presence of the volcanic aerosol reproduce a decrease of ozone in the northern hemisphere, but also produce a comparable ozone decrease in the southern hemisphere contrary to observations. Our simulations show that the heating due to the volcanic aerosol enhanced both the tropical upwelling and the extratropical downwelling. The enhanced extratropical downwelling, combined with the time of the eruption relative to the seasonal phase of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, increased the ozone in the southern hemisphere and counteracted the ozone depletion due to heterogeneous chemistry on volcanic aerosol.
Aquila, V.↗
Volcanic forcing degrades multiyear-to-decadal prediction skill in the tropical Pacific
Volcanic aerosol forcing can affect global climate, but its role in climate prediction remains poorly understood. We isolate the impact of volcanic eruptions on multiyear-to-decadal climate prediction skill by comparing two suites of initialized decadal hindcasts conducted with and without historical volcanic forcing. Unexpectedly, the inclusion of volcanic forcing in the prediction system significantly degrades the forecast skill of detrended multiyear-to-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the central-eastern tropical Pacific. The ensemble mean hindcasts produce multiyear-to-decadal tropical Pacific SST cooling in response to large tropical volcanic eruptions through thermodynamic and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–like dynamic processes. However, in observations, these eruptions coincided with tropical Pacific warming, which is well predicted by the no-volcano hindcasts and, hence, is likely related to internal climate variability. Improved model representation of volcanic response and its interaction with internal climate variability is required to advance prediction of tropical Pacific decadal variability and associated global impacts.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Mesospheric temperature and circulation response to the Hunga Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai volcanic eruption
The Hunga Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption on 15 January 2022 injected water vapor and SO 2 into the stratosphere. Several months after the eruption, significantly stronger westerlies, and a weaker Brewer-Dobson circulation developed in the stratosphere of the Southern Hemisphere and were accompanied by unprecedented temperature anomalies in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In August 2022, the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite instrument observed record-breaking temperature anomalies in the stratosphere and mesosphere that alternate signs with altitude. Ensemble simulations carried out with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) indicate that the strengthening of the stratospheric westerlies explains the mesospheric temperature changes. The stronger westerlies cause stronger westward gravity wave drag in the mesosphere. Although the enhanced gravity wave drag is partly balanced by a weakening of planetary wave forcing, the net result is an acceleration of the mesospheric mean meridional circulation. The stronger mesospheric circulation, in turn, plays a dominant role in driving the changes in mesospheric temperatures. This study highlights the impact of large volcanic eruptions on middle atmospheric dynamics and provides insight into their long-term effects in the mesosphere. On the other hand, we could not discern a clear mechanism for the observed changes in stratospheric circulation. In fact, an examination of the WACCM ensemble reveals that not every member reproduces the large changes observed by SABER. We conclude that there is a stochastic component to the stratospheric response to the HTHH eruption.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Modeling a Coronal Mass Ejection from an Extended Filament Channel. I. Eruption and Early Evolution
We present observations and modeling of the magnetic field configuration, morphology, and dynamics of a large-scale, high-latitude filament eruption observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We analyze the 2015 July 9–10 filament eruption and the evolution of the resulting coronal mass ejection (CME) through the solar corona. The slow streamer-blowout CME leaves behind an elongated post-eruption arcade above the extended polarity inversion line that is only poorly visible in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) disk observations and does not resemble a typical bright flare-loop system. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation results from our data-inspired modeling of this eruption compare favorably with the EUV and white-light coronagraph observations. We estimate the reconnection flux from the simulation’s flare-arcade growth and examine the magnetic-field orientation and evolution of the erupting prominence, highlighting the transition from an erupting sheared-arcade filament channel into a streamer-blowout flux-rope CME. Our results represent the first numerical modeling of a global-scale filament eruption where multiple ambiguous and complex observational signatures in EUV and white light can be fully understood and explained with the MHD simulation. In this context, our findings also suggest that the so-called “stealth CME” classification, as a driver of unexpected or “problem” geomagnetic storms, belongs more to a continuum of observable/non-observable signatures than to separate or distinct eruption processes.
Benjamin J Lynch↗
Investigation of forced unsteady separated flows using velocity-vorticity form of Navier-Stokes equations
The phenomenon of forced unsteady separation and eruption of boundary-layer vorticity is a highly-complex, high-Reynolds number flow phenomenon, which abruptly leads to the formation of a dynamic stall vortex as demonstrated earlier by the authors for a NACA 0015 airfoil undergoing constant rate pitch-up motion. This, as well as the results of other researchers, have convincingly demonstrated a complex vortical structure within the state of unsteady separation prior to the evolution of dynamic stall. This phenomenon of vortex eruption, although observed in studying dynamic stall phenomena, is also associated with transition from laminar to turbulence flow and its generic nature has been stressed by many researchers including the present investigators. An unsteady Navier-Stokes (NS) analysis is developed for arbitrarily maneuvering bodies using velocity-vorticity variables; this formulation is nearly form-invariant under a generalized non-inertial coordinate transformation. A fully-implicit uniformly second-order accurate method is used, with the nonlinear convective terms approximated using a biased third-order upwind differencing scheme to be able to simulate higher-Re flows. No explicit artificial dissipation is added. The numerical method is fully vectorized and currently achieves a computational index of 7 micro-seconds per time step per mesh point, using a single processor on a CRAY Y-MP. The simulation results show that the energetic free shear from the leading edge is responsible for the wall viscous layer to abruptly erupt near the center of the counterclockwise rotating eddy in the unsteady boundary layer. Primary, secondary, tertiary and quaternary vortices have been observed before the dynamic stall vortex evolves and gathers its maximum strength. This study will discuss the simulation results of Reynolds number up to Re = 45,000 and will also discuss the efforts of initial acceleration in a specific maneuver, on the evolution of the stall vortex.
Ghia, K. N.↗
Simulating the Volcanic Sulfate Aerosols From the 1991 Eruption of Cerro Hudson and Their Impact on the 1991 Ozone Hole
The Chilean volcano Cerro Hudson erupted between August 8th and 15th, 1991, injecting between 1.7 and 2.9 Tg of SO2 into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. We simulate this injection using the GEOS Earth system model with detailed sulfur chemistry and sectional aerosol microphysics, focusing on the resulting aerosols and their contribution to the 1991 Antarctic Austral Springtime ozone hole. The simulations show a column ozone deficit (12 DU) in the Southern Hemisphere vortex collar region. The majority of this effect is between 10 and 20 km and due to heterogeneous chemistry. The model shows a 26% decrease in ozone from background levels at these altitudes, compared with in-situ observations of a 50% decrease. Above 20 km, the dynamical response to the eruption also causes lower ozone values, a novel modeling result. This experiment highlights potential interactions between proposed solar radiation management geoengineering aerosols and volcanic eruptions.
aerosols↗
Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions
The imminent launch of Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) will carry the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with I" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of ~1.5 Terabytes per day from SDO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." This talk will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO /HMI.
Schuck, Peter W.↗
On the Lack of Stratospheric Dynamical Variability in Low-top Versions of the CMIP5 Models
We describe the main differences in simulations of stratospheric climate and variability by models within the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that have a model top above the stratopause and relatively fine stratospheric vertical resolution (high-top), and those that have a model top below the stratopause (low-top). Although the simulation of mean stratospheric climate by the two model ensembles is similar, the low-top model ensemble has very weak stratospheric variability on daily and interannual time scales. The frequency of major sudden stratospheric warming events is strongly underestimated by the low-top models with less than half the frequency of events observed in the reanalysis data and high-top models. The lack of stratospheric variability in the low-top models affects their stratosphere-troposphere coupling, resulting in short-lived anomalies in the Northern Annular Mode, which do not produce long-lasting tropospheric impacts, as seen in observations. The lack of stratospheric variability, however, does not appear to have any impact on the ability of the low-top models to reproduce past stratospheric temperature trends. We find little improvement in the simulation of decadal variability for the high-top models compared to the low-top, which is likely related to the fact that neither ensemble produces a realistic dynamical response to volcanic eruptions.
troposphere↗
Editorial: Flux Rope Interaction With the Ambient Corona: From Jets to CMEs
Eruptive events within the Sun’s corona occur across a broad range of scales, from abundant small-scale jets to highly energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (e.g., Webb and Howard, 2012; Raouafi et al., 2016; Kumar et al., 2021). Flux ropes have been understood to be a fundamental constituent of CMEs for many years, but it has only been more recently that their role in smaller eruptive events has become more appreciated (e.g., Sterling et al., 2015; Wyper et al., 2017). The key to understanding the differing morphology and nature of eruptions on these vastly differing scales is to understand the nature of the interaction between the flux ropes involved and the magnetic field of the surrounding corona. This Research Topic invited perspectives on (and examples of) flux rope eruptions across this broad range of scales, from formation to ejection, with the aim of highlighting commonalities and differences to aid in ultimately building a common framework for their understanding. Starting at the smallest scales, Schmieder presented a historically ordered review of jets and surges. The parallel improvements in instrumentation, physical insight and numerical simulations over time were highlighted along with the ways in which improvements in one area led to developments in another. Overall, jets of all forms are presented as the result of magnetic reconnection between two magnetic domains, with the reconnection involving a null point, bald patch separatrix or quasi-separatrix layer. In particular, jets with observed rotational motions often involve the transfer of twist from a small-scale filament or flux rope by reconnection across the separatrix.
solar corona and wind↗
Editorial: Flux Rope Interaction With the Ambient Corona: From Jets to CMEs
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solar corona and wind↗
Modeling the dynamics of dense pyroclastic flows on Venus: insights into pyroclastic eruptions
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Indujaa Ganesh↗
Characterizing Volcanic Eruptions on Venus: Some Realistic (?) Scenarios
When Pioneer Venus arrived at Venus in 1978, it detected anomalously high concentrations of SO2 at the top of the troposphere, which subsequently declined over the next five years. This decline in SO2 was linked to some sort of dynamic process, possibly a volcanic eruption. Observations of SO2 variability have persisted since Pioneer Venus. More recently, scientists from the Venus Express mission announced that the SPICAV (Spectroscopy for Investigation of Characteristics of the Atmosphere of Venus) instrument had measured varying amounts of SO2 in the upper atmosphere; VIRTIS (Visible and Infrared Thermal Imaging Spectrometer) measured no similar variations in the lower atmosphere (ESA, 4 April, 2008). In addition, Fegley and Prinn stated that venusian volcanoes must replenish SO2 to the atmosphere, or it would react with calcite and disappear within 1.9 my. Fegley and Tremain suggested an eruption rate on the order of approx 1 cubic km/year to maintain atmospheric SO2; Bullock and Grinspoon posit that volcanism must have occurred within the last 20-50 my to maintain the sulfuric acid/water clouds on Venus. The abundance of volcanic deposits on Venus and the likely thermal history of the planet suggest that it is still geologically active, although at rates lower than Earth. Current estimates of resurfacing rates range from approx 0.01 cubic km/yr to approx 2 cubic km/yr. Demonstrating definitively that Venus is still volcanically active, and at what rate, would help to constrain models of evolution of the surface and interior, and help to focus future exploration of Venus.
Stofan, E. R.↗
Imaging a Free-Geometry Magma Reservoir Using FEM-Based Linear Inverse Modeling of InSAR Data: Application to Rabaul Caldera, Papua New Guinea
We test an innovative inversion scheme using Green’s functions from an array of pressure sources embedded in finite-element method (FEM) models to image, without assuming an a-priori geometry, the composite and complex shape of a volcano deformation source. We invert interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data to estimate the pressurization and shape of the magma reservoir of Rabaul caldera, Papua New Guinea. The results image the extended shallow magmatic system responsible for a broad and long-term subsidence of the caldera between 2007 February and 2010 December. Elastic FEM solutions are integrated into the regularized linear inversion of InSAR data of volcano surface displacements in order to obtain a 3-D image of the source of deformation. The Green’s function matrix is constructed from a library of forward line-of-sight displacement solutions for a grid of cubic elementary deformation sources. Each source is sequentially generated by removing the corresponding cubic elements from a common meshed domain and simulating the injection of a fluid mass flux into the cavity, which results in a pressurization and volumetric change of the fluidfilled cavity. The use of a single mesh for the generation of all FEM models avoids the computationally expensive process of non-linear inversion and remeshing a variable geometry domain. Without assuming an a-priori source geometry other than the configuration of the 3-D grid that generates the library of Green’s functions, the geodetic data dictate the geometry of the magma reservoir as a 3-D distribution of pressure (or flux of magma) within the source array. The inversion of InSAR data of Rabaul caldera shows a distribution of interconnected sources forming an amorphous, shallow magmatic system elongated under two opposite sides of the caldera. The marginal areas at the sides of the imaged magmatic system are the possible feeding reservoirs of the ongoing Tavurvur volcano eruption of andesitic products on the east side and of the past Vulcan volcano eruptions of more evolved materials on the west side. The interconnection and spatial distributions of sources correspond to the petrography of the volcanic products described in the literature and to the dynamics of the single and twin eruptions that characterize the caldera. The ability to image the complex geometry of deformation sources in both space and time can improve our ability to monitor active volcanoes, widen our understanding of the dynamics of active volcanic systems and improve the predictions of eruptions.
Inverse theory↗
Imaging the Complex Geometry of a Magma Reservoir Using Fem-Based Linear Inverse Modeling of InSAR Data: Application to Rabaul Caldera, Papua New Guinea
We test an innovative inversion scheme using Green’s functions from an array of pressure sources embedded in finite-element method (FEM) models to image, without assuming an a-priori geometry, the composite and complex shape of a volcano deformation source. We invert interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data to estimate the pressurization and shape of the magma reservoir of Rabaul caldera, Papua New Guinea. The results image the extended shallow magmatic system responsible for a broad and long-term subsidence of the caldera between 2007 February and 2010 December. Elastic FEM solutions are integrated into the regularized linear inversion of InSAR data of volcano surface displacements in order to obtain a 3-D image of the source of deformation. The Green’s function matrix is constructed from a library of forward line-of-sight displacement solutions for a grid of cubic elementary deformation sources. Each source is sequentially generated by removing the corresponding cubic elements from a common meshed domain and simulating the injection of a fluid mass flux into the cavity, which results in a pressurization and volumetric change of the fluid-filled cavity. The use of a single mesh for the generation of all FEM models avoids the computationally expensive process of non-linear inversion and remeshing a variable geometry domain. Without assuming an a-priori source geometry other than the configuration of the 3-D grid that generates the library of Green’s functions, the geodetic data dictate the geometry of the magma reservoir as a 3-D distribution of pressure (or flux of magma) within the source array. The inversion of InSAR data of Rabaul caldera shows a distribution of interconnected sources forming an amorphous, shallow magmatic system elongated under two opposite sides of the caldera. The marginal areas at the sides of the imaged magmatic system are the possible feeding reservoirs of the ongoing Tavurvur volcano eruption of andesitic products on the east side and of the past Vulcan volcano eruptions of more evolved materials on the west side. The interconnection and spatial distributions of sources correspond to the petrography of the volcanic products described in the literature and to the dynamics of the single and twin eruptions that characterize the caldera. The ability to image the complex geometry of deformation sources in both space and time can improve our ability to monitor active volcanoes, widen our understanding of the dynamics of active volcanic systems and improve the predictions of eruptions.
Inverse theory↗
A Multivariate Space-Time Dynamic Model for characterizing pathways following the 1991 Mt Pinatubo volcanic eruption
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Garrett, Robert Charles↗
A Multivariate Space-Time Dynamic Modelfor characterizing downstream impacts of the 1991 Mt Pinatubo volcanic eruption
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Shand, Lyndsay↗
CME-Producing Precursors to the 2006 December 13 X-Flare
We revisit one of the largest explosions observed during the Hinode era, the X4.3 class event of 2006 Dec 13. We gain insight into the main eruption through study of two sub-C-class precursor eruptions, occurring within 12 hours of and originating from the same (or nearby) neutral line as the X-flare. The precursors share some features in common with the main eruption, and their lower energy and consequent slower development renders interpretation of these features easier to decipher than in the rapidly explosive main eruption. In addition, because the weak precursors occurred in a magnetically strong region, magnetic connections indicated by soft X-ray loops are readily visible in these cases, while such connections can be much less apparent in weaker-region eruptions. Hinode/SOT magnetograms indicate that photospheric magnetic dynamic activity in the "magnetic core" is the likely ultimate source of the eruptions. All the eruptions, however, produce Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) that have wider spatial extent than the localized source region; this is a long-observed but puzzling phenomena, which can address directly here using the high-quality Hinode data. For the precursor eruptions, Hinode/XRT images show that the initial eruptions occur inside larger-scale magnetic structures that encompass the core. The exploding core field blows out this larger-scale structure, resulting in the CME having angular extent far exceeding that of the source-region core alone; this is the arch-arch-blowout scenario for CMEs of Moore & Sterling (2007). Similar processes occur in the main eruption, except that the much larger energy release in that eruption compared to the precursors results in much faster and larger-scale phenomena.
Sterling, Alphonse C.↗