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DOE OSTI2026

Neural Posterior Estimation for Scalable and Accurate Inverse Parameter Inference in Li-Ion Batteries

Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter estimation via Bayesian calibration, diagnostics can account for the uncertainty due to model fitness, data noise, and the observability of any given parameter. However, Bayesian calibration in Li-ion batteries using electrochemical data is computationally intensive even when using a fast surrogate in place of physics-based models, requiring many thousands of model evaluations. A fully amortized alternative is neural posterior estimation (NPE). NPE shifts the computational burden from the parameter estimation step to data generation and model training, reducing the parameter estimation time from minutes to milliseconds, enabling real-time applications. The present work shows that NPE can infer parameters equally or more accurately than Bayesian calibration, even if it leads to higher voltage reconstruction errors. We also demonstrate that the higher computational costs for data generation are tractable even in high-dimensional cases (ranging from 6 to 27 estimated parameters). The NPE method also offers several interpretability advantages over Bayesian calibration, such as local parameter sensitivity to specific regions of the voltage curve. The NPE method is demonstrated using an experimental fast charge dataset, with parameter estimates validated against measurements of loss of lithium inventory and loss of active material. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NatLabRockies/BatFIT).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends

Anthropogenically forced changes in ocean biogeochemistry are underway and critical for the ocean carbon sink and marine habitat. Detecting such changes in ocean biogeochemistry will require quantification of the magnitude of the change (anthropogenic signal) and the natural variability inherent to the climate system (noise). Here we use Large Ensemble (LE) experiments from four Earth system models (ESMs) with multiple emissions scenarios to estimate Time of Emergence (ToE) and partition projection uncertainty for anthropogenic signals in five biogeochemically important upper-ocean variables. We find ToEs are robust across ESMs for sea surface temperature and the invasion of anthropogenic carbon; emergence time scales are 20–30 yr. For the biological carbon pump, and sea surface chlorophyll and salinity, emergence time scales are longer (50+ yr), less robust across the ESMs, and more sensitive to the forcing scenario considered. We find internal variability uncertainty, and model differences in the internal variability uncertainty, can be consequential sources of uncertainty for projecting regional changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the coming decades. In combining structural, scenario, and internal variability uncertainty, this study represents the most comprehensive characterization of biogeochemical emergence time scales and uncertainty to date. Our findings delineate critical spatial and duration requirements for marine observing systems to robustly detect anthropogenic change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

RePOWERD: Restoration of Power Outage from Wide-area Severe Weather Disruptions

The purpose of the RePOWERD project is to develop a probabilistic and a simulation based power restoration forecasting model for tropical storms based on geographic utility service areas, impacts to energy infrastructures and transportation networks, time-varying customer outage number, crew information (i.e., crew size, crew staging requirements), and utility restoration plans. Energy infrastructure is a critical lifeline essential for the United States’ national and economic security. Like other critical infrastructures, this infrastructure is aging and is at a high risk of damages from extreme weather events. Based on the number of reported outages in EAGLE-I during 2020 and 2021, it is evident that the current energy infrastructure is not equipped to handle extreme event impacts and will contribute to significant outages. From a resilience perspective, it is essential to forecast restoration time in the event of a severe weather induced power outage to assist the US Department of Energy, emergency managers, and first responders with resource planning. This project contributes to this crucial need. This report details the models, that were developed in this pilot study, to determine the rate of restoration and estimated time of restoration (ETR) during tropical storm events within counties and utility service areas based on damage to energy infrastructures and total number of customers experiencing outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis

Abstract. In recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales that could have been potentially predicted with accurate and timely estimates of the associated stratospheric aerosol loads. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project component C (DCPP-C) includes a protocol to investigate the impact of volcanic aerosols on the climate experienced during the years that followed those eruptions through the use of decadal predictions. The interest of conducting this exercise with climate predictions is that, thanks to the initialisation, they start from the observed climate conditions at the time of the eruptions, which helps to disentangle the climatic changes due to the initial conditions and internal variability from the volcanic forcing. The protocol consists of repeating the retrospective predictions that are initialised just before the last three major volcanic eruptions but without the inclusion of their volcanic forcing, which are then compared with the baseline predictions to disentangle the simulated volcanic effects upon climate. We present the results from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) decadal prediction systems. These systems show strong agreement in predicting the well-known post-volcanic radiative effects following the three eruptions, which induce a long-lasting cooling in the ocean. Furthermore, the multi-model multi-eruption composite is consistent with previous work reporting an acceleration of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex and the development of El Niño conditions the first year after the eruption, followed by a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation the subsequent years. Our analysis reveals that all these dynamical responses are both model- and eruption-dependent. A novel aspect of this study is that we also assess whether the volcanic forcing improves the realism of the predictions. Comparing the predicted surface temperature anomalies in the two sets of hindcasts (with and without volcanic forcing) with observations we show that, overall, including the volcanic forcing results in better predictions. The volcanic forcing is found to be particularly relevant for reproducing the observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic Ocean following the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo.

Bilbao, Roberto (ORCID:0000000307294980)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Phylogenomics and diversification of Sordariomycetes

The Sordariomycetes is a specious, morphologically diverse, and widely distributed class of the phylum Ascomycota that forms a well-supported clade diverged from Leotiomycetes. Aside from their ecological significance as plant and human pathogens, saprobes, endophytes, and fungicolous taxa, species of Sordariomycetes produces a wide range of chemically novel and diverse metabolites used in important fields. Recent phylogenetic analyses derived from a small number of genes have considerably increased our understanding of the family, order, and subclass relationships within Sordariomycetes, but several important groups have not been resolved well. In addition, there are various paraphyletic or polyphyletic groups. Moreover, the criteria used to establish higher ranks remain highly variable across different studies. Therefore, the taxonomy of Sordariomycetes is in constant flux, remains poorly understood, and is subject to much controversy. Here, for the first time, we have assembled a phylogenetic dataset containing 638 genomes representing the 156 genera, 50 families, and 17 orders and 5 subclasses of Sordariomycetes. This data set is based on 1124 genes and results in a well-resolved phylogenomic tree. We further constructed an evolutionary timeline of Sordariomycetes diversification based on the genomic data sets. Our divergence time estimate results are inconsistent with previous studies, suggesting estimates of node ages are less precise and varied. Based on these results, we discuss the higher ranks of Sordariomycetes and empirically propose an unprecedented taxonomic framework for the class.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

An encoder–decoder LSTM-based EMPC framework applied to a building HVAC system

Numerous studies have demonstrated the benefit of economic model predictive control (EMPC) applied to building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. However, the construction and training of predictive models for building HVAC systems are widely recognized as a key technological barrier preventing large-scale adoption of EMPC for buildings. In this work, an encoder–decoder long short-term memory-based EMPC framework is developed. The key advantage of the approach is that a model may be automatically generated from a list of inputs and outputs. From the definition of inputs and outputs, the constructed model may be trained and automatically embedded into the EMPC framework for real-time estimation and control. The overall end-to-end EMPC framework from model training to on-line estimation and control are described. To this end, the encoder–decoder model provides a natural framework for state estimation (encoder), which is required to provide an initial condition for the predictive model of EMPC (decoder). Closed-loop simulations using EnergyPlus are performed to demonstrate the approach. The simulated closed-loop system consists of a building zone from a multi-zone building, which is served by an air handling unit-variable air volume HVAC system. For the HVAC example considered, the trained encoder–decoder model can predict the indoor air temperature and HVAC sensible cooling rate of a building zone over a two-day horizon with high accuracy. Overall, we find that considering a time-of-use electric rate structure, the EMPC, which manipulates the zone temperature setpoint, can reduce the HVAC power consumption cost relative to keeping the zone temperature setpoint at its maximum value (i.e., minimum energy approach).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

C-AAC Occupancy and Transition Out of CMR [Slides]

This in-depth evaluation was performed in order to gather information for a plan and time estimate of C-AAC space cleanout and handover to the CMR facility once programmatic operations are relocated to other facilities. C-AAC space ownership in CMR wings 1, 5, 7, and 9 have been identified down to the Team level (see subsequent slides and other supporting documentation). This plan assumes that C-AAC activities that support Pu sustainment efforts (Wings 1, 5, and 7) are relocated to PF-4 and RLUOB in mid/end FY24 and current projects in Wing 9 are completed by the end of FY24/mid FY25 (cessation of C-AAC programmatic operations in CMR). This plan assumes that no other programmatic activities are initiated in CMR (e.g. MOX fuel rods). Timing and order of cleanout of programmatic laboratory and office spaces in wings 1, 5, and 7 is dependent upon analytical chemistry operations being established and relocated to RLUOB and PF-4. Timing and order of cleanout of programmatic laboratory and office spaces in wing 9 is dependent upon completion of current projects (MR&R, Thermo Fisher drum, etc.). As C-AAC Teams move out of the CMR building and into other facilities, the spaces occupied by those teams are planned to be targeted for in depth cleanout in the order that teams and capabilities are relocated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterization and controllability of radiated power via extrinsic impurity seeding in strongly negative triangularity plasmas in DIII-D

Experiments with extrinsic impurity seeding in strongly negative triangularity shapes in DIII-D achieved radiated power fractions (relative to input power) of up to ≈85% total radiation and ≈55% core radiation in steady-operating conditions. The relationship between core and total radiation was sensitive to impurity species and input power. Attempts to reach higher radiation levels via higher impurity flows resulted in radiative collapse disruptions. Nitrogen, neon, argon, and krypton were tested. Injection was by gas puffing, usually controlled by feeding back real-time estimates for core or total radiating fractions ($P_\textrm{rad} / P_\textrm{input}$). Argon and krypton were controlled by feeding back total radiating fraction, whereas neon was controlled by feeding back the core radiating fraction, due to the lower efficiency of neon as a divertor radiator. Nitrogen flows were pre-programmed. Reasonable total $P_\textrm{rad}$ control target following was achieved with argon or krypton. Control was more challenging with the neon/core radiation configuration, which was more prone to slow response and overshooting of the control target. Poor particle removal contributed to the control challenge: neon particle inventory within the last closed flux surface was roughly constant for up to 1 s (the longest duration tested) after neon injection was halted. However, separate experiments with laser-blow off of non-recycling impurities measured a short impurity confinement time, on the scale of the energy confinement time of ∼100 ms. Modeling with the Aurora impurity transport simulation matched experimental neon density profiles with full recycling (R = 1.0) and weak pumping but predicted rapid decreases in neon inventory if pumping were increased or recycling decreased. This indicates that changes outside the confined plasma (adding a well-placed pump) would improve controllability for all highly recycling species.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate Model (PDIR) for High-Resolution, Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimation

Precipitation measurements with high spatiotemporal resolution are a vital input for hydrometeorological and water resources studies; decision-making in disaster management; and weather, climate, and hydrological forecasting. Moreover, real-time precipitation estimation with high precision is pivotal for the monitoring and managing of catastrophic hydroclimate disasters such as flash floods, which frequently transpire after extreme rainfall. While algorithms that exclusively use satellite infrared data as input are attractive owing to their rich spatiotemporal resolution and near-instantaneous availability, their sole reliance on cloud-top brightness temperature (T b ) readings causes underestimates in wet regions and overestimates in dry regions—this is especially evident over the western contiguous United States (CONUS). We introduce an algorithm, the Precipitation Estimations from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) Dynamic Infrared–Rain rate model (PDIR), which utilizes climatological data to construct a dynamic (i.e., laterally shifting) T b –rain rate relationship that has several notable advantages over other quantitative precipitation-estimation algorithms and noteworthy skill over the western CONUS. Validation of PDIR over the western CONUS shows a promising degree of skill, notably at the annual scale, where it performs well in comparison to other satellite-based products. Analysis of two extreme landfalling atmospheric rivers show that solely IR-based PDIR performs reasonably well compared to other IR- and PMW-based satellite rainfall products, marking its potential to be effective in real-time monitoring of extreme storms. This research suggests that IR-based algorithms that contain the spatiotemporal richness and near-instantaneous availability needed for rapid natural hazards response may soon contain the skill needed for hydrologic and water resource applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Sea State Estimation for Wave Energy Converter Control via Machine Learning

Wave energy converters (WECs) harness the untapped power of ocean waves to generate renewable energy, offering a promising solution to sustainable energy. An optimal WEC control strategy is essential to maximize power capture that dynamically adjusts system parameters in response to rapidly changing sea states. This study presents a novel control approach that leverages neural networks to estimate sea states from onboard WEC measurements such as position, velocity, and force. Using a point absorber WEC device as a test platform, our proposed approach estimates sea states in real-time and subsequently adjusts PID controller gains to maximize energy extraction. Simulation results across diverse sea conditions demonstrate that our strategy eliminates the need for external wave monitoring equipment while maintaining power capture efficiency. The results show that our neural network-based control technique can improve power capture by 25.6% while significantly reducing system complexity. This approach offers a practical alternative for WEC deployments where direct wave measurements are either infeasible or cost prohibitive.

PIDcontrol↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nonunitary Variational Quantum Eigensolver with the Localized Active Space Method and Cost Mitigation

Accurately describing strongly correlated systems with affordable quantum resources remains a central challenge for quantum chemistry applications on near and intermediate term quantum computers. The localized active space self-consistent field (LASSCF) approximates the complete active space self-consistent field (CASSCF) by generating active space-based wave functions within specific fragments while treating interfragment correlation with mean-field approach, hence is computationally less expensive. Hardware-efficient ansatzes (HEA) offer affordable and shallower circuits, yet they often fail to capture the necessary correlation. Previously, Jastrow-factor-inspired nonunitary qubit operators were proposed to use with HEA for variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) calculations (so-called nuVQE), as they do not increase circuit depths and recover correlation beyond the mean-field level for Hartree–Fock initial states. Here, in this study, we explore running nuVQE with LASSCF as the initial state. The method, named LAS-nuVQE, is shown to recover interfragment correlations, reach chemical accuracy with a small number of gates (<70) in both H 4 and square cyclobutadiene (C 4 H 4 ), and produces more accurate energetics than its HEA counterparts at all circuit depths. To further address the inherent symmetry-breaking in HEA, we implemented spin-constrained LAS-nuVQE to extend the capabilities of HEA further and show spin-pure results for square cyclobutadiene. We also mitigate the increased measurement overhead of nuVQE via Pauli grouping and shot-frugal sampling, reducing measurement costs by up to 2 orders of magnitude compared to ungrouped operator, and show that one can achieve better accuracy with a small number of shots (10 3–4 ) per one expectation value calculation compared to noiseless simulations with one or two orders of magnitude more shots. Finally, wall clock time estimates show that, with our measurement mitigation protocols, nuVQE becomes a cheaper and more accurate alternative than vanilla VQE with HEA. Taken together, these developments illustrate a practical pathway toward performing multireference chemical simulations with accuracy and affordable resources on today’s quantum hardware, achieving both accuracy and affordability in challenging correlated systems.

Wang, Qiaohong [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United State↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the Unusual Reactivity of the Hydrated Electron with CO 2

Many questions remain about the reactions of the hydrated electron despite decades of study. Of particular note is the fact that they do not appear to follow the Marcus theory of electron transfer reactions, a feature that has yet to be explained. To investigate these issues, we use ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations to investigate a one of the better studied reactions, the hydrated electron reduction of CO 2 . The rate constant for the hydrated electron-CO 2 reaction complex to react to form CO 2 - is, for the first time, estimated from AIMD simulations. Results at 298 and 373 K show the rate constant is insensitive to temperature, consistent with the low measured activation energy for the reaction, and the implications of this behavior are examined. The sampling provided by the simulations yields insight into the reaction mechanism. The reaction is found to involve both solvent reorganization and changes in the carbon dioxide structure. The latter lead to significant vibrational excitation of the bending and symmetric stretch vibrations in the CO 2 - product, indicating the reaction is vibrationally nonadiabatic. The former is estimated from calculation of an approximate collective solvent coordinate and the free energy in this coordinate is determined. Furthermore, these results indicate that AIMD simulations can reasonably estimate hydrated electron reaction activation energies and provide new insight into the mechanism that can help illuminate the features of this unusual chemistry.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Current and Future PM2.5 Air Quality in China Under CMIP6 and DPEC Emission Scenarios

The latest scenarios for the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) provide opportunities to explore future climate and air pollution mitigation pathways with socioeconomic features. However, to what extent inadequate consideration of region-specific policies in the CMIP6 scenarios would affect regional air quality projections is still not clear. Here, we simulated China’s future PM2.5 concentrations and compositions with local policy-based scenarios and the original CMIP6 datasets, for the first time estimating future air quality differences induced by the lack of local pollution control policies in the CMIP6 scenarios. We found that the CMIP6-driven projections overestimate major chemical aerosols by 10% – 70% in 2015 and fail to capture the rapid PM2.5 concentration decline during 2015–2019. Near-term differences further lead to 43% – 49% (5 – 9 µg/m3) PM2.5 overpredictions in 2050 in CMIP6 scenarios compared with policy-based mitigation scenarios. Our study demonstrates the indispensable influences of local policies on regional analyses and suggests that the research community should incorporate more region-specific information in future scenario designs.

Cheng, Jing↗

DOE OSTI2026

Citywide indoor air sampling mirrors wastewater and clinical for environmental surveillance of respiratory viruses

Wastewater surveillance of respiratory pathogens can provide timely estimates of viral activity and disease trends in a population. Indoor air surveillance could be used similarly with some advantages but remains largely unvalidated at the community -scale. Here, an indoor air surveillance program was employed as part of public health environmental surveillance in Chicago, Illinois, USA. Ten air samplers were placed in healthcare and congregate living settings across the city. Weekly air samples were evaluated for influenza A, influenza B, respiratory syncytial virus, and SARS -CoV-2 over two respiratory virus seasons (2023 -2025). Citywide, aggregated air sample positivity and viral load were closely correlated with local clinical case and wastewater surveillance data across all respiratory viruses. Virus trends in air data often preceded clinical and wastewater, although this varied across pathogens and respiratory virus seasons. Further, whole -genome sequencing of SARS -CoV-2 showed close correlation of variant proportions across all datasets. At the building -scale, air samples obtained from a single sampling device provided efficient respiratory virus surveillance, with respiratory pathogen levels mirroring citywide clinical surveillance data. These data demonstrate that air surveillance can provide respiratory virus case and variant trend data at a building or community -scale, serving as an alternative or complementary tool for public health environmental surveillance.

Wilton, Rosemarie↗

DOE OSTI2025

Candidate strongly lensed type Ia supernovae in the Zwicky Transient Facility archive

Gravitationally lensed type Ia supernovae (glSNe Ia) are unique astronomical tools that can be used to study cosmological parameters, distributions of dark matter, the astrophysics of the supernovae, and the intervening lensing galaxies themselves. A small number of highly magnified glSNe Ia have been discovered by ground-based telescopes such as the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), but simulations predict that a fainter, undetected population may also exist. We present a systematic search for glSNe Ia in the ZTF archive of alerts distributed from June 1 2019 to September 1 2022. Using the AMPEL platform, we developed a pipeline that distinguishes candidate glSNe Ia from other variable sources. Initial cuts were applied to the ZTF alert photometry (with constraints on the peak absolute magnitude and the distance to a catalogue-matched galaxy, as examples) before forced photometry was obtained for the remaining candidates. Additional cuts were applied to refine the candidates based on their light curve colours, lens galaxy colours, and the resulting parameters from fits to the SALT2 SN Ia template. The candidates were also cross-matched with the DESI spectroscopic catalogue. Seven transients were identified that passed all the cuts and had an associated galaxy DESI redshift, which we present as glSN Ia candidates. Although superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) cannot be fully rejected as contaminants, two events, ZTF19abpjicm and ZTF22aahmovu, are significantly different from typical SLSNe and their light curves can be modelled as two-image glSN Ia systems. From this two-image modelling, we estimate time delays of 22 ± 3 and 34 ± 1 days for the two events, respectively, which suggests that we have uncovered a population of glSNe Ia with longer time delays. The pipeline is efficient and sensitive enough to parse full alert streams. It is currently being applied to the live ZTF alert stream to identify and follow-up future candidates while active. This pipeline could be the foundation for glSNe Ia searches in future surveys, such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A TOPAS model for lens-based proton radiography

Abstract Objective. Proton Radiography can be used in conjunction with proton therapy for patient positioning, real-time estimates of stopping power, and adaptive therapy in regions with motion. The modeling capability shown here can be used to evaluate lens-based radiography as an instantaneous proton-based radiographic technique. The utilization of user-friendly Monte Carlo program TOPAS enables collaborators and other users to easily conduct medical- and therapy- based simulations of the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE). The resulting transport model is an open-source Monte Carlo package for simulations of proton and heavy ion therapy treatments and concurrent particle imaging. Approach. The four-quadrupole, magnetic lens system of the 800-MeV proton beamline at LANSCE is modeled in TOPAS. Several imaging and contrast objects were modelled to assess transmission at energies from 230–930 MeV and different levels of particle collimation. At different proton energies, the strength of the magnetic field was scaled according to βγ, the inverse product of particle relativistic velocity and particle momentum. Main results. Materials with high atomic number, Z, (gold, gallium, bone-equivalent) generated more contrast than materials with low-Z (water, lung-equivalent, adipose-equivalent). A 5-mrad collimator was beneficial for tissue-to-contrast agent contrast, while a 10-mrad collimator was best to distinguish between different high-Z materials. Assessment with a step-wedge phantom showed water-equivalent path length did not scale directly according to predicted values but could be mapped more accurately with calibration. Poor image quality was observed at low energies (230 MeV), but improved as proton energy increased, with sub-mm resolution at 630 MeV. Significance. Proton radiography becomes viable for shallow bone structures at 330 MeV, and for deeper structures at 630 MeV. Visibility improves with use of high-Z contrast agents. This modality may be particularly viable at carbon therapy centers with accelerators capable of delivering high energy protons and could be performed with carbon therapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tracing back the birth environments of Type Ia supernova progenitor stars: a pilot study based on 44 early-type host galaxies

The environmental dependence of Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) luminosities is well established, and efforts are being made to find its origin. Previous studies typically use the currently observed status of the host galaxy. However, given the delay time between the birth of the progenitor star and the SN Ia explosion, the currently observed status may differ from the birth environment of the SN Ia progenitor star. In this paper, employing the chemical evolution and accurately determined stellar population properties of 44 early-type host galaxies, we, for the first time, estimate the SN Ia progenitor star birth environment, specifically [Fe/H] Birth and [α/Fe] Birth . We show that [α/Fe] Birth has a $30.4^{\text{+10.6}}_{-10.1}{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ wider range than the currently observed [α/Fe] Current , while the range of [Fe/H] Birth is not statistically different ($17.9^{\text{+26.0}}_{-27.1}{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$) to that of [Fe/H] Current . The birth and current environments of [Fe/H] and [α/Fe] are sampled from different populations (p-values of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test <0.01). We find that light-curve fit parameters are insensitive to [Fe/H] Birth (<0.9σ for the non-zero slope), while a linear trend is observed with Hubble residuals (HRs) at the 2.4σ significance level. With [α/Fe] Birth , no linear trends (<1.1σ) are observed. Interestingly, we find that [α/Fe] Birth clearly splits the SN Ia sample into two groups: SN Ia exploded in [α/Fe] Birth -rich or [α/Fe ]Birth -poor environments. SNe Ia exploded in different [α/Fe] Birth groups have different weighted-means of light-curve shape parameters: 0.81 ± 0.33 (2.5σ). They are thought to be drawn from different populations (p-value = 0.01). Regarding SN Ia colour and HRs, there is no difference (<1.0σ) in the weighted-means and distribution (p-value > 0.27) of each [α/Fe] Birth group.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Benefits and Limits of Phasing Alleles for Network Inference of Allopolyploid Complexes

Abstract Accurately reconstructing the reticulate histories of polyploids remains a central challenge for understanding plant evolution. Although phylogenetic networks can provide insights into relationships among polyploid lineages, inferring networks may be hindered by the complexities of homology determination in polyploid taxa. We use simulations to show that phasing alleles from allopolyploid individuals can improve phylogenetic network inference under the multispecies coalescent by obtaining the true network with fewer loci compared with haplotype consensus sequences or sequences with heterozygous bases represented as ambiguity codes. Phased allelic data can also improve divergence time estimates for networks, which is helpful for evaluating allopolyploid speciation hypotheses and proposing mechanisms of speciation. To achieve these outcomes in empirical data, we present a novel pipeline that leverages a recently developed phasing algorithm to reliably phase alleles from polyploids. This pipeline is especially appropriate for target enrichment data, where the depth of coverage is typically high enough to phase entire loci. We provide an empirical example in the North American Dryopteris fern complex that demonstrates insights from phased data as well as the challenges of network inference. We establish that our pipeline (PATÉ: Phased Alleles from Target Enrichment data) is capable of recovering a high proportion of phased loci from both diploids and polyploids. These data may improve network estimates compared with using haplotype consensus assemblies by accurately inferring the direction of gene flow, but statistical nonidentifiability of phylogenetic networks poses a barrier to inferring the evolutionary history of reticulate complexes.

Evolutionary Biology↗