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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

SWAT model application for evaluating agricultural conservation practice effectiveness in reducing phosphorous loss from the Western Lake Erie Basin

Lake Erie is threatened by eutrophication and harmful algal blooms due to excess nutrient loading from agricultural sources. Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs) have been developed and implemented to reduce nutrient losses but estimating ACP effectiveness is challenging. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used to investigate ACP effectiveness for water quality improvement. Many SWAT applications have been developed by different investigators to evaluate ACP effectiveness for reducing nutrient, particularly phosphorus (P), loading in the agriculturally-dominated Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB). Our objective is to establish what has been achieved by past modeling research and make suggestions for future applications and improvements. We synthesized the findings of 28 SWAT modeling studies within the WLEB. Models generally performed satisfactorily against accepted criteria for streamflow and sediment, but performance for P loads, like soluble reactive P, was mostly “unsatisfactory”. The “unsatisfactory” performance maybe due to imperfections and idealizations in model formulations and/or parameterization. Thus, simulations of P transport and transformation processes need improvement. In addition, model parameter selection is the key part of model set-up. Most SWAT modeling studies used default values during initial set-up, then performed calibration and validation. It was found that the calibrated P related parameter values varied widely across different studies, even within the same watershed with some values unrealistic for the study areas. The phenomena of different combinations of model parameters producing similar outputs indicates equifinality. Equifinality in the baseline model may impact results when ACPs are incorporated. Furthermore, the unrealistic values used in ACP assessment undermine the credibility of ACP effectiveness. Future model applications should try to re-examine the calibrated P parameters and make sure they are realistic for the study area as well as reduce equifinality by constraining the model with characterization of watershed conditions, better understanding of hydrologic processes, and parameter values based on real-world observations. As a result, future model applications should focus on improving P transport and transformation processes, using measured watershed characteristics for parameterization, and improving reflections of climate change, which could result in more accurate assessments of ACP effectiveness to meet targeted goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment of advanced composite panels incorporating CO 2 -derived multi-walled carbon nanotubes and hemp fiber for sustainable building applications

Advanced composite panels represent a promising pathway to reducing carbon emissions in the construction industry, yet comprehensive environmental impact assessments remain limited. Here, in this study, we conduct a life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate the environmental impacts of innovative composite panels produced from multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs), hemp fiber (HF), recycled carbon fiber (rCF), and recycled polypropylene (PP), exploring their potential as baseline structural equivalents to conventional gypsum board. MWCNTs and HF play a critical role in sequestering carbon during raw material production, while the recycling processes for CF and PP generally require less energy compared to virgin material production. The LCA evaluates environmental performance using the TRACI 2.1 method, covering global warming potential (GWP), ozone depletion, smog formation, acidification, eutrophication, carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects, respiratory impacts, ecotoxicity, and fossil fuel depletion. Compositional variations—resin type (virgin vs. recycled), rCF content (9–29 wt%), and HF content (10–30 wt%)—are introduced for sensitivity and hotspot analyses. Results demonstrate that, when compared on the basis of preliminary structural equivalence, increasing recycled PP, rCF, and HF content can significantly reduce global warming potential compared to gypsum board. Beyond carbon reduction, the composite panels show trade-offs across other environmental categories. With the growing demand for composite materials in interior panels, ceiling systems, and exterior claddings, these findings highlight the environmental benefits and potential trade-offs of the proposed composites, establishing a foundational framework to support their continued development toward full building-system integration.

Advanced composite manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2022

Plankton energy flows using a global size-structured and trait-based model

Plankton community models are critical tools for understanding the processes that shape marine plankton communities, how plankton communities impact biogeochemical cycles, and the feedbacks between community structure and function. Here, using the flexible Marine Biogeochemistry Library (MARBL), we present the Size-based Plankton ECological TRAits (MARBL-SPECTRA) model, which is designed to represent a diverse plankton community while remaining computationally tractable. MARBL-SPECTRA is composed of nine phytoplankton and six zooplankton size classes represented using allometric scaling relationships for physiological traits and interactions within multiple functional types. MARBL-SPECTRA is embedded within the global ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and simulates large-scale, emergent patterns in phytoplankton growth limitation, plankton phenology, plankton generation time, and trophic transfer efficiency. The model qualitatively reproduces observed global patterns of surface nutrients, chlorophyll biomass, net primary production, and the biogeographies of a range of plankton size classes. In addition, the model simulates how predator:prey dynamics and trophic efficiency vary across gradients in total ecosystem productivity. Shorter food chains that export proportionally more carbon from the surface to the ocean interior occur in productive, eutrophic regions, whereas in oligotrophic regions, the food chains are relatively long and export less organic matter from the surface. The union of functional type modeling with size-resolved, trait-based modeling approaches allows MARBL-SPECTRA to capture both large-scale elemental cycles and the structure of planktonic food webs affecting trophic transfer efficiency.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A geospatial environmental and techno-economic framework for sustainable phosphorus management at livestock facilities

Nutrient pollution of waterbodies is a major worldwide water quality problem. Excessive use and discharge of nutrients can lead to eutrophication and algal blooms in fresh and marine waters, resulting in environmental problems associated with hypoxia, public health issues related to the release of toxins and freshwater scarcity. A promising option to address this problem is the recovery of nutrient releases prior to being discharged into the environment. Driven by the sustainable materials management concept, the COW2NUTRIENT (Cattle Organic Waste to NUTRIent and ENergy Technologies) framework is developed for the techno-economic evaluation and selection of nutrient recovery systems at livestock facilities. Furthermore, environmental vulnerability to nutrient pollution determined through a geographic information system (GIS)-based model and techno-economic information of different state-of-the-art nutrient management technologies are combined in a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) model, resulting in the selection and economic analysis of the most suitable process for each studied livestock facility. This framework has been employed for studying the implementation of sustainable phosphorus management systems at 2,217 livestock facilities in the Great Lakes area, resulting in capital expenses of 2.5 billion USD if only phosphorus recovery technologies are installed, and up to 5.2 billion USD if nutrient management is combined with biogas and power production. However, considering potential economic incentives for the recovery of phosphorus, net revenues up to 230 million USD per year can be achieved. Therefore, the framework presented reveals the potential of implementing nutrient management systems at regional scale for the abatement of phosphorus releases from livestock facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projecting Life-Cycle Environmental Impacts of Corn Production in the U.S. Midwest under Future Climate Scenarios using machine learning approach

Emission factors and process-based mechanism models are popular approaches used to estimate life-cycle environmental impacts. However, emission factors are often incapable of describing spatial and temporal heterogeneity of agricultural emissions, whereas process-based mechanism models, capable of capturing the heterogeneity, tend to be very complicated, and time-consuming. Efficient predictions of life-cycle environmental impacts from agricultural production are lacking. This study develops a rapid predictive model to quantify life-cycle global warming (GW), eutrophication (EU) and acidification (AD) impacts of corn production using a novel machine learning approach. We used the boosted regression tree (BRT) model to estimate current and future life-cycle environmental impacts of corn production in 12 U.S. Midwest at county scale under four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s climate scenarios (RCP2.6. 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for years 2009-2100. Results show that future life-cycle GW, EU and AD impacts of corn production will increase under all four scenarios, with the worst environmental impacts shown under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Significant spatial variation were estimated to be 3.6, 29.9 and 1.8-folds under the RCP4.5 scenario, and 6.6, 152.9 and 1.6-folds under the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. Findings from this study demonstrate the importance of considering county-level life-cycle environmental impacts and the influences of climate change in future years to aid in developing potential adaptation and mitigation programs and policies.

Machine learning, climate change, projections, env↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mineral-hydrogel composites for mitigating harmful algal bloom and supplying phosphorous for photo-biorefineries

Harmful algal blooms (HAB) are a major environmental concern in eutrophic aquatic systems. To mitigate HABs and recover the phosphorus that drives algal growth, this study developed hydrogel composites seeded with calcium phosphate and wollastonite particles, which first adsorb phosphate (P) and then precipitate it as calcium phosphate. Using a fast-growing cyanobacterium, Synechococcus elongatus 2973, as a model microalga, we found that the mineral-hydrogel composites reduced dissolved P in BG11 media from 5.1 mg/L to 0.31 mg/L, initially reducing the biomass growth rate by up to 73 % and ultimately reducing the total biomass concentration by 75 %. When applied to municipal wastewater and agricultural run-off, the composites removed 96 % and 91 % of the dissolved P, respectively. Moreover, when the recovered P-enriched composites were reused as a slow-release bio-compatible fertilizer in a photobioreactor, they effectively supported algal growth without blocking light and interfering with photosynthesis. The P-enriched composites could tune the P concentration in the culture medium and significantly promote algal lipid accumulation. Finally, this study demonstrates the mineral-hydrogel composites' potential to treat point sources of P pollution and subsequently facilitate photoautotrophic biofuel production as a nutrient, effectively recycling the captured P.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of restored mussel reefs on denitrification in marine sediments

Globally we have lost the majority of shellfish reefs, with the concomitant loss of ecosystem services. Restoration provides opportunities to regain lost services and engage society in the wider ecosystem benefits of restoration. Previous research has demonstrated that the functional role of shellfish can be context dependent, and we therefore measured fluxes of nutrients and dissolved gases from four restored mussel reefs along a grain size gradient in New Zealand as a metric of success in ecosystem function. This globally novel research found that restored mussel reefs were successful in enhancing denitrification. Mussel reefs can therefore be important in reducing the risk of future eutrophication, but the importance of nutrient remineralisation varies in response to site conditions. These data show that mussel reef creation can quickly restore ecosystem function, but site selection to enhance specific services is important. Furthermore, this study provides evidence of a poorly realised ecosystem service provided by restored mussel beds that allows future restoration efforts to better target areas in order to have the largest impact on the removal of anthropogenic nitrogen.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward a sustainable circular economy of multilayer plastic films: Life cycle and techno-economic assessment with a focus on end-of-life treatment and multiple recovery cycles

This study presents a life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) of end-of-life technologies for treating polyethylene–polyamide barrier film waste, focusing on quality degradation across recovery cycles. Novel treatment methods are experimentally validated, while others are drawn from literature and industry consultations. A displacement approach, assuming no quality loss, is first applied. Results show that solvent-based recycling via the solvent-targeted recovery and precipitation (STRAP) process outperforms alternatives across environmental indicators, reducing global warming potential (GWP) by 40% compared to landfilling. Incineration performs worst in most categories, particularly eutrophication (80% higher than landfilling), due to nitrogen emissions. Experimentally validated downcycling (pelletizing) proves more economically viable. The assumption of infinite recoverability is overly optimistic. To address this, we propose a mathematical framework accounting for a finite number of recovery cycles. This refined model shows reduced GWP and cost savings for solvent recovery, making its benefits less pronounced than initially estimated. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses reveal strong dependence on recovered material quality and solvent recovery efficiency, underscoring the need for optimized process design. Finally, hotspot analysis identifies greenhouse gas emissions from the polyamide supply chain as the dominant GWP contributor. In conclusion, the results underscore potential trade-offs across pathways and show that solvent-based recovery’s sustainability depends heavily on process conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic and life cycle assessment of standalone Single-Stream material recovery facilities in the United states

Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) are crucial players in achieving a circular economy. MRFs receive complex waste streams and separate valuable recyclables from these mixtures. This study conducts techno-economic analysis (TEA) to estimate the net present value (NPV) and life cycle assessment (LCA) to estimate different environmental impacts of a commercial scale standalone, single-stream MRF to assess the economic feasibility and environmental impacts of recovering valuable recyclables from an MRF processing 120,000 tonnes per year (t/y). The TEA employs a discounted cash flow rate of return (DCFROR) analysis over a 20-year facility lifetime, along with a sensitivity analysis on the impact of different operating and economic parameters. Results show that the total fixed cost of building the MRF facility is $\$ $23 MM, and the operating cost is $\$ $45.48/tonne. Further the NPV of the MRF can vary from $\$ $3.57 MM to $\$ $60 MM, while 100-year global warming potential can range from 5.98 to 8.53 kg carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq) per tonne of MSW. We have also found that MSW composition (arising from regional effects) significantly impacts costs, 100-year global warming potential, and other impact categories such as acidification potential, eutrophication potential, ecotoxicity, ozone depletion, photochemical oxidation, carcinogenic effects, and non-carcinogenic effects. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicate that waste composition and market prices significantly impact the profitability of the MRF, and the waste composition mostly impacts global warming potential. Our analysis also indicates that facility capacity, fixed capital cost, and waste tipping fees are vital parameters that affect the economic viability of MRF operations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nitrate loading projection is sensitive to freeze-thaw cycle representation

Climate change can have substantial impacts on nitrogen runoff, which is a major cause of eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and hypoxia in freshwaters and coastal regions. We examined responses of nitrate loading to climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) with an enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool with physically based Freeze-Thaw cycle representation (SWAT-FT), as compared with the original SWAT model that employs an empirical equation. Driven by future climate projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from 1960 to 2099 under the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario, we analyzed changes in riverine nitrate loadings, as well as terrestrial surface and subsurface contributions of the UMRB in the 21st century relative to the baseline period of 1960–1999. By the end of the 21st century, the original SWAT model predicted about a 50% increase in riverine nitrate loadings which is nearly twice as much as that estimated by SWAT-FT (ca. 25%). Such a large difference in projected nitrate changes can potentially mislead mitigation strategies that aim to reduce nitrogen runoff from the UMRB. Further analysis shows that the difference between the original SWAT model and SWAT-FT led to substantial discrepancies in the spatial distribution of surface and subsurface nitrate loadings in the UMRB. In general, SWAT-FT predicted more nitrate leaching for northwestern parts of the UMRB which are more sensitive to freeze-thaw cycle, mainly because SWAT-FT simulated less frequent frozen soils. This study highlights the importance of using physically based freeze-thaw cycle representation in water quality modeling. Design of future nitrogen runoff reduction strategies should include careful assessment of effects that land management has on the freeze-thaw cycles to provide reliable projection of water quality under climate change.

Wang, Qianfeng↗
DOE OSTI2023

Environmental life cycle assessment of treatment and management strategies for food waste and sewage sludge

A consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) was utilized to compare the environmental impacts of food waste and sewage sludge management strategies. The strategies included a novel two-phase anaerobic digestion (AD) system and alternatives including landfill, waste-to-energy, composting, anaerobic membrane bioreactor, and conventional AD (wet continuous stirred-tank reactor [CSTR]). The co-management of food waste with sewage sludge was also considered for the two-phase AD system and for a conventional AD reactor. Further, a multidimensional LCA approach was taken, considering the five-midpoint impact categories of global warming, smog, human health particulate, acidification, and eutrophication estimated using the U.S. EPA Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and Other Environmental Impacts. Co-management of food waste and sewage sludge using the novel two-phase AD system was shown to maximize energy recovery and had a net global warming benefit while reducing other environmental impacts compared with the alternative management strategies. It had similar relative environmental advantages across all categories as conventional AD, with the advantage of a smaller physical footprint. However, both approaches featured net environmental burdens when the background electric grid intensity fell below 0.25 kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 , as could be expected in a decarbonized electric future. Upgrading the biogas produced from AD to renewable natural gas can displace the use of fossil natural gas for other non-electricity energy requirements that are difficult to decarbonize and may extend the time period of significant environmental benefits of utilizing AD for organic waste management. Treatment of the nutrient-rich supernatant generated by the novel two-phase AD system could be an obstacle for utilities with stringent nutrient discharge limits. Future research and full-scale implementation are needed to demonstrate the benefits of the two-phase AD system predicted through this analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Molecular Characterization of Organophosphorus Compounds in Wildfire Smoke Using 21-T Fourier Transform-Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry

Here, we present a detailed molecular characterization of organophosphorus compounds in ambient organic aerosol influenced by wildfire smoke. Biomass burning organic aerosol (BBOA) is an important source of phosphorus (P) to surface waters, where even a small imbalance in the P flux can lead to substantial effects on water quality, such as eutrophication, algal blooms, and oxygen depletion. We aimed to exploit the ultrahigh resolving power, mass accuracy, and sensitivity of Fourier transform-ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) to explore the molecular composition of an ambient BBOA sample collected downwind of Pacific Northwest wildfires. The 21-T FT-ICR MS yielded 10533 distinct formulae, which included molecular species comprising C, H, O, and P with or without N, i.e., organophosphorus compounds that have long been quantified in wildfire smoke but have not yet been characterized at the molecular level. The lack of detailed molecular characterization of organophosphorus compounds in BBOA is primarily due to their inherently low concentrations in aerosols and poor ionization efficiency in complex mixtures. We demonstrate that the exceptional sensitivity of the 21-T FT-ICR MS allows qualitative analysis of a previously uncharacterized fraction of BBOA without its selective concentration from the organic matrix, exemplifying the need for ultrahigh-resolution tools for a more detailed and accurate molecular depiction of such complex mixtures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global Life Cycle and Techno-Economic Assessment of Algal-Based Biofuels

Techno-economic analyses (TEAs) and life cycle assessments (LCAs) of algal biofuels often focus on locations in suboptimal latitudes for algal cultivation, which can under-represent the sustainability potential of the technology. This study identifies the optimal global productivity potential, environmental impacts, and economic viability of algal biofuels by using validated biophysical and sustainability modeling. The biophysical model simulates growth rates of Scenedesmus obliquusbased on temperature, photoinhibition, and respiration effects at 6685 global locations. Region-specific labor costs, construction factors, and tax rates allow for spatially resolved TEA, while the LCA includes regional impacts of electricity, hydrogen, and nutrient markets across ten environmental categories. The analysis identifies optimal locations for algal biofuel production in terms of environmental impacts and economic viability which are shown to follow biomass yields. Modeling results highlight the global variability of productivity with maximum yields ranging between 24.8 and 27.5 g m -2 d -1 in equatorial regions. Environmental impact results show favorable locations tracked with low-carbon electricity grids, with the well-to-wheels global warming potential (GWP) ranging from 31 to 45 g CO 2eq MJ -1 in South America and Central Africa. When including direct land use change impacts, the GWP ranged between 44 and 55 g CO 2eq MJ -1 in these high-productivity regions. Low-carbon electricity also favors air quality and eutrophication impacts. The TEA shows that minimum algal fuel prices of $\$1.89$-$\$2.15$ per liter of gasoline-equivalent are possible in southeast Asia and Venezuela. Furthermore, this discussion focuses on the challenges and opportunities to reduce fuel prices and the environmental impacts of algal biofuels in various global regions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

How do Hydrological Variability and Human Activities Control the Spatiotemporal Changes of Riverine Nitrogen Export in the Upper Mississippi River Basin?

Excessive nitrogen export from agricultural watersheds remains a critical water quality challenge, with the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) significantly contributing to downstream eutrophication and hypoxia in the Gulf. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of riverine nitrate plus nitrite (NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N) export across the UMRB at high spatial resolution (12-digit Hydrologic Unit Codes or HUC12 subwatershed scale) during 2001−2020 and quantifies the effects of anthropogenic activities and hydrological variability on riverine NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N export changes in the region between 2001−2005 and 2016−2020. Our results revealed hotspots of substantial increases in NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N yields across the UMRB, with distinct regional patterns in driving factors. Over the entire UMRB, NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N yields increased by 9.7 kg/ha/yr on average from 2001−2005 to 2016−2020, with anthropogenic activities contributing 4.8 kg/ha/yr and hydrological variability contributing 4.9 kg/ha/yr. The northern and western UMRB had combined influences from both anthropogenic activities and hydrological variability, while the east-central regions had predominantly hydrologically driven changes. Agricultural sources, including fertilizer, manure, and biological nitrogen fixation, collectively contributed over 80% of NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N loading throughout the basin. Furthermore, this framework for disentangling human and hydrological impacts provides critical insights for developing effective and targeted watershed management strategies to reduce nutrient losses and improve water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatially and Temporally Explicit Life Cycle Environmental Impacts of Soybean Production in the U.S. Midwest

Quantifying the spatially and temporally explicit life cycle environmental impacts of crop production is critical for designing sustainable supply chains for biofuel and animal sectors. This study assessed life cycle environmental impacts of soybean production in around 1000 Midwest counties over 9 years. A combination of Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model and process-based life cycle assessment model was used to estimate the spatially and temporally explicit life cycle global warming (GW), eutrophication (EU) and acidification (AD) impacts. Sequentially, a machine learning approach was applied to identify the top influential factors among soil, climate and farming practices for spatially and temporally explicit life cycle environmental impacts. The results indicated that significant variations existed in life cycle environmental impacts among counties and across years. Life cycle GW impacts ranged from -11.4 to 22.0 kg CO2-eq. kg soybean-1, whereas life cycle EU and AD impacts varied by a factor of 302 and 44, respectively. Nitrogen application rates, temperature in March and soil texture were the top influencing factors for the spatial-temporal variations in life cycle GW impacts. In contrast, soil organic content and nitrogen application rate were the top influencing factors for the spatial-temporal variations in life cycle EU and AD impacts.

Soybean, life cycle analysis, sustainability, spat↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photoelectrochemical Nitrate and Nitrite Reduction Using Cu 2 O Photocathodes

Nitrate in wastewater streams causes eutrophication, and nitrate removal is of great importance for environmental protection. Electrochemical nitrate reduction has the advantage of directly converting nitrate to benign or useful chemicals, but it typically requires a considerable overpotential. Here, in this study, photoelectrochemical nitrate reduction is investigated using a Cu 2 O photocathode, where photoexcited electrons in the conduction band inherently have an overpotential of >1.6 V for nitrate reduction. The Cu 2 O photocathode is found to reduce nitrate to nitrite selectively with a high Faradaic efficiency (>85%). More importantly, as the surface of Cu 2 O is particularly catalytic for nitrate reduction, nitrate reduction on Cu 2 O kinetically suppresses photocorrosion of Cu 2 O without the need for additional catalyst or protection layers. In addition to nitrate reduction, nitrite reduction on Cu 2 O is examined to compare the effects of nitrate and nitrite reduction kinetics on the photocurrent generation and photocorrosion of Cu 2 O photocathodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Pathway Analysis Framework for Evaluating the Economic and Environmental Viability of Biomass-Based Plastic Production

Plastic production from fossil feedstocks (e.g., naphtha, coal, and natural gas) is not sustainable and causes known environmental impacts such as global warming. A possible solution is to shift production pathways to use biomass, which is a sustainable feedstock that can sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide. This study presents an optimization-based pathway analysis framework for evaluating the carbon footprints of the production of mainstream plastics from biomass and fossil feedstocks. We use the modeling framework to quickly navigate complex interdependencies that exist between the production pathways of different plastics and to determine pathways of minimum production cost under a range of carbon pricing scenarios. The framework interprets carbon prices as an exogenous taxation scheme or an endogenous negative value perceived by producers. The proposed approach reveals the biomass feedstock quantities needed to displace fossil counterparts and the plastics and technologies that should be prioritized. The framework can also be used for evaluating system-wide trade-offs between production costs and carbon footprints that arise from pathway interdependencies. We also evaluate hidden environmental impacts associated with the large-scale use of biomass as a feedstock, such as land use and water eutrophication that results from a significant increase in fertilizer use. Therefore, it is important to highlight that there are trade-offs between decarbonization and other environmental issues. Here, the proposed framework provides an integrative platform for basic techno-economic and life-cycle data that can be used for analyzing diverse scenarios and determining necessary technology targets (e.g., yields, footprints, and costs) to achieve required levels of decarbonization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Test of Functional Balance Theory for Wetland Biomass Allocation in a Global Change Experiment

Abstract Forecasts of root growth and carbon sequestration under global change are compromised by uncertainty in how plants will allocate biomass between above and belowground pools. Here, we develop a simple model to assess whether functional balance theory can explain a complex biomass allocation response observed in a brackish marsh under experimental warming and elevated CO 2 . Our model shows how treatment‐driven changes in nitrogen supply and demand can explain divergent observations of root growth (i.e., maximum responses under intermediate warming and elevated CO 2 ). The model also reveals a surprising interaction between warming and eutrophication, where enhanced N loading to coastal marshes may reduce adverse impacts of warming on root growth. Our findings provide a mechanistic basis for incorporating biomass allocation into forecast models of marsh evolution. They also provide a general example of using ecological theory to decompose complex net responses observed in multi‐factor global change experiments into constituent processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗