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NASA NTRS1990

Size, duration, and rate of growth of nocturnal lightning events appearing on space shuttle video tapes

An analysis of video tapes of nocturnal lightning events, taken aboard space shuttle flights STS-8, STS-9, STS-41D, and STS-51J, shows flashes with dimensions ranging from approximately 1 km by 1 km to 440 km by 110 km. Of particular interest are the flashes whose dimensions exceeded 100 km, as flashes of this size are seldom reported. In general, larger flashes were found to have longer durations, take longer to reach their maximum extent, and reach their maximum extent at a smaller percent of their total duration than smaller flashes. Sixty four percent of the flashes occurred with one to five other events appearing in the same video frame. These simultaneous events were an average of 60 km apart from each other. If a breakdown process is propagating between the simultaneous flashes, it would be travelling at a rate of 10(exp 5)m/sec. Plots of the area of an event over its duration show peaks in the area curve which may be indicative if lightning strokes. There was an average of 3.6 peaks per flash. In general, the longer the flash duration, the more peaks there were in the area curve. The area curves of the lightning events fall into one of five shape categories. It is suggested that the shape of the area curve may indicate whether an event is an intracloud or cloud to ground lightning flash. Some of the lightning events had a persistent bright spot. These events had an average duration which was greater than that of events without the bright spot. On average, the bright spot events had a maximum area which was larger than that of the flashes without the bright spot.

Breslawski, Christine↗
NASA NTRS1990

Energetic particle abundances in solar electron events

The results of a comprehensive search of the ISEE 3 energetic particle data for solar electron events with associated increases in elements with atomic number Z = 6 or greater are reported. A sample of 90 such events was obtained. The events support earlier evidence of a bimodal distribution in Fe/O or, more clearly, in Fe/C. Most of the electron events belong to the group that is Fe-rich in comparison with the coronal abundance. The Fe-rich events are frequently also He-3-rich and are associated with type III and type V radio bursts and impulsive solar flares. Fe-poor events are associated with type IV bursts and with interplanetary shocks. With some exceptions, event-to-event enhancements in the heavier elements vary smoothly with Z and with Fe/C. In fact, these variations extend across the full range of events despite inferred differences in acceleration mechanism. The origin of source material in all events appears to be coronal and not photospheric.

Reames, D. V.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Solar Type II Radio Bursts and IP Type II Events

We have examined radio data from the WAVES experiment on the Wind spacecraft in conjunction with ground-based data in order to investigate the relationship between the shocks responsible for metric type II radio bursts and the shocks in front of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The bow shocks of fast, large CMEs are strong interplanetary (IP) shocks, and the associated radio emissions often consist of single broad bands starting below approx. 4 MHz; such emissions were previously called IP type II events. In contrast, metric type II bursts are usually narrowbanded and display two harmonically related bands. In addition to displaying complete dynamic spectra for a number of events, we also analyze the 135 WAVES 1 - 14 MHz slow-drift time periods in 2001-2003. We find that most of the periods contain multiple phenomena, which we divide into three groups: metric type II extensions, IP type II events, and blobs and bands. About half of the WAVES listings include probable extensions of metric type II radio bursts, but in more than half of these events, there were also other slow-drift features. In the 3 yr study period, there were 31 IP type II events; these were associated with the very fastest CMEs. The most common form of activity in the WAVES events, blobs and bands in the frequency range between 1 and 8 MHz, fall below an envelope consistent with the early signatures of an IP type II event. However, most of this activity lasts only a few tens of minutes, whereas IP type II events last for many hours. In this study we find many examples in the radio data of two shock-like phenomena with different characteristics that occur simultaneously in the metric and decametric/hectometric bands, and no clear example of a metric type II burst that extends continuously down in frequency to become an IP type II event. The simplest interpretation is that metric type II bursts, unlike IP type II events, are not caused by shocks driven in front of CMEs.

Cane, H. V.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Summary of the Flux-Rope CDAW events

In this paper, I summarize some of the results obtained during previous CDAW on the events selected for analysis. The events were selected based on the following criteria: 1. The events must be well observed in the interplanetary medium as shock-driving interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), 2. The ICMEs should have corresponding CMEs near the Sun, observed in white-light coronal images, and 3. The heliographic coordinates of the solar sources must be within 15 degrees from the Sun Center. In all, 24 magnetic cloud (MC) events and 35 non-MC evens were analyzed. Of the 35 non-MC events selected for analysis, it was possible to fit flux ropes to 31/35 events if different boundaries and multiple flux ropes are used. The four events without flux rope structure seem to be poor events (short duration, poor magnetic and plasma signatures). Coronal flux rope fitting suggests (at least for a subset) that non-MC events become non-central during propagation. It was also found that MCs have high charge states; half of the non-MC events also have high charge states. The direction parameter of CMEs seems to be high for MCs. All these results are consistent with the idea that alll CMEs may be flux ropes.

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk↗
NASA NTRS2012

On the Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Space Weather Events

By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and greater than 30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst less than - 850 nT) occurring within the next decade is approximately 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

Riley, Pete↗
NASA NTRS2015

NASA Space Science Day Events-Engaging Students in Science

The NASA Space Science Day Event follows the same format of planning and execution at all host universities and colleges. These institutions realized the importance of such an event and sought funding to continue hosting NSSD events. In 2014, NASA Johnson Space Center ARES team has supported the following universities and colleges that have hosted a NSSD event; the University of Texas at Brownsville, San Jacinto College, Georgia Tech University and Huston-Tillotson University. Other universities and colleges are continuing to conduct their own NSSD events. NASA Space Science Day Events are supported through continued funding through NASA Discovery Program. Community Night begins with a NASA speaker and Astromaterials display. The entire community surrounding the host university or college is invited to the Community Night. This year at the Huston-Tillotson (HTU) NSSD, we had Dr. Laurie Carrillo, a NASA Engineer, speak to the public and students. She answered questions, shared her experiences and career path. The speaker sets a tone of adventure and discovery for the NSSD event. After the speaker, the public is able to view Lunar and Meteorite samples and ask questions from the ARES team. The students and teachers from nearby schools attended the NSSD Event the following day. Students are able to see the university or college campus and the university or college mentors are available for questions. Students rotate through hour long Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) sessions and a display area. These activities are from the Discovery Program activities that tie in directly with k- 12 instruction. The sessions highlight the STEM in exploration and discovery. The Lunar and Meteorite display is again available for students to view and ask questions. In the display area, there are also other interactive displays. Angela Green, from San Jacinto College, brought the Starlab for students to watch a planetarium exhibit for the NSSD at Huston-Tillotson University. Many HTU mentors were leading activities in the display room such as build a comet, volcano layering and robotics manipulation. Students were exposed to a variety STEM career possibilities and information. The students could relate the displays and sessions to what they were learning in school. The HTU mentors made the connection clear for the students. The students ended the event with a mission design presentation. They were able to take what they had learned during the day and were able to create a mission. Students presented their Mission Design and gained confidence in STEM. Conclusion: NASA Space Science Day Events provides an out of school experiential learning environment for students to enhance their STEM curriculum and let students see a college campus. The experiences students gain from attending NSSD gives them the confidence to see themselves on a college campus, possibly majoring in a STEM degree, and understand the importance of completing school.

Foxworth, S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Comparison of Stratospheric Smoke Events Seen by SAGE II (1984-2005) and SAGE III (2017-2021)

The ongoing Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment aboard the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) has mostly occurred during a period of relatively low aerosol loading. At the same time, it has almost observed a number of small to moderate injections of volcanic material in the stratosphere from the Aoba/Ambae eruption of 2018 to that of Karymsky in 2022. In addition, two of the largest known smoke intrusions into the stratosphere have occurred during the SAGE III/ISS mission (the British Columbia fire of August 2017 and the Australian Wildfire Event of 2019/2020). At least two other much smaller smoke events have also been observed in the SAGE III data (California Creek in September 2020 and McKay Creek in June 2021). Particularly with the two large events, it is tempting to speculate that these events are increasing in intensity and frequency possibly due to ongoing climate change. Realistically, change is difficult to assess since instrument data sets that can be used for quantifying historical events can be quite different in what and where they provide measurements. This complicates comparing one event to another potentially separated by many years. An exception to this issues are the measurements by SAGE III/ISS and those of its predecessor SAGE II (1984-2005). Both use the same measurement strategy, measure aerosol extinction coefficient at 1020 nm, and have similar spatial/temporal coverage. Both instruments are known to observe smoke events in the stratosphere. However, both have the same low observation density characteristic of solar occultation such that near-global coverage takes almost a month and characterizing effectively instant events like smoke and volcanic events take a matter of weeks depending on the vagaries of where the observations are being made at a critical juncture unlike instruments with high temporal/spatial resolution like limb-scatter instruments such as OMPS and OSIRIS. The goal of this work will be to use the same analysis approach to both the SAGE II and SAGE III data and compare both the frequency and intensity of smoke events observed by these instruments. While we do not expect to be able to make conclusions about change between the periods, the analysis is a first step in interpreting changes in the contribution of smoke to the stratospheric aerosol budget between the time frames encompassed by these instruments.

L. W. Thomason↗
NASA NTRS1995

The He-3/He-4 ratios for solar energetic particle events during the Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite Mission

Helium data measured by the University of Chicago instrument, ONR-604, are employed to determine the ratio of He-3 to He-4 for solar energetic particle (SEP) events over an energy range 50-110 MeV/nucleon during the 1990/1991 Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite mission. The Sun in this period is extremely active. A total of 29 separate SEP events have been identified; among them 16 major events have been analyzed to obtain He-3/He-4 ratios, with a mass resolution of 0.10 amu. Thirteen events have a He-3/He-4 ratio larger than 0.005, one order of magnitude greater than the solar coronal value. The He-3/He-4 ratio at energies of 50-110 MeV/nucleon is independent of the size of the SEP event, for the moderately large flares analyzed here. The helium energy spectra are represented by power laws. During the 1991 June flare period, different large-particle injections associated with different solar flares, but occurring from the same active region, have a similar average spectral index and a similar He-3/He-4 ratio. The spectral index of He-4 varies from event to event, i.e., from as small as 1.5 to as large as 7.5. A correlation is found between the inferred spectral index from gamma-ray measurements and our measured spectral indices for the 1991 June 11 and June 15 events, suggesting that the high-energy SEPs may come from the same acceleration event as the particles that interact at the Sun and produce the gamma rays. The implications of these results for particle acceleration and propagation at the flare site and in the solar corona are discussed.

Chen, Jiasheng↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Flight/Ground/Test Event Logging Facility

The onboard control software for spacecraft such as Mars Pathfinder and Cassini is composed of many subsystems including executive control, navigation, attitude control, imaging, data management, and telecommunications. The software in all of these subsystems needs to be instrumented for several purposes: to report required telemetry data, to report warning and error events, to verify internal behavior during system testing, and to provide ground operators with detailed data when investigating in-flight anomalies. Events can range in importance from purely informational events to major errors. It is desirable to provide a uniform mechanism for reporting such events and controlling their subsequent processing. Since radiation-hardened flight processors are several years behind the speed and memory of their commercial cousins, and since most subsystems require real-time control, and since downlink rates to earth can be very low from deep space, there are limits to how much of the data can be saved and transmitted. Some kinds of events are more important than others and should therefore be preferentially retained when memory is low. Some faults can cause an event to recur at a high rate, but this must not be allowed to consume the memory pool. Some event occurrences may be of low importance when reported but suddenly become more important when a subsequent error event gets reported. Some events may be so low-level that they need not be saved and reported unless specifically requested by ground operators.

Dvorak, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS2007

Short- and Medium-term Atmospheric Effects of Very Large Solar Proton Events

Long-term variations in ozone have been caused by both natural and humankind related processes. In particular, the humankind or anthropogenic influence on ozone from chlorofluorocarbons and halons (chlorine and bromine) has led to international regulations greatly limiting the release of these substances. These anthropogenic effects on ozone are most important in polar regions and have been significant since the 1970s. Certain natural ozone influences are also important in polar regions and are caused by the impact of solar charged particles on the atmosphere. Such natural variations have been studied in order to better quantify the human influence on polar ozone. Large-scale explosions on the Sun near solar maximum lead to emissions of charged particles (mainly protons and electrons), some of which enter the Earth's magnetosphere and rain down on the polar regions. "Solar proton events" have been used to describe these phenomena since the protons associated with these solar events sometimes create a significant atmospheric disturbance. We have used the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to study the short- and medium-term (days to a few months) influences of solar proton events between 1963 and 2005 on stratospheric ozone. The four largest events in the past 45 years (August 1972; October 1989; July 2000; and October-November 2003) caused very distinctive polar changes in layers of the Earth's atmosphere known as the stratosphere (12-50 km; -7-30 miles) and mesosphere (50-90 km; 30-55 miles). The solar protons connected with these events created hydrogen- and nitrogen- containing compounds, which led to the polar ozone destruction. The hydrogen-containing compounds have very short lifetimes and lasted for only a few days (typically the duration of the solar proton event). On the other hand, the nitrogen-containing compounds lasted much longer, especially in the Winter. The nitrogen oxides were predicted to increase substantially due to these solar events and led to mid- to upper polar stratospheric ozone decreases of over 20%. These WACCM results generally agreed with satellite measurements. Both WACCM and measurements showed enhancements of nitric acid, dinitrogen pentoxide, and chlorine nitrate, which were indirectly caused by these solar events. Solar proton events were shown to cause a significant change in the polar stratosphere and need to be considered in understanding variations during years of strong solar activity.

Jackman, Charles H.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Why Are Most Ground Level Events Associated with High Fe/O Ratios?

In a seminal paper about Ground Level Events (GLEs), Dietrich and Lopate (1999) reported on 24 GLEs from April, 1973 to May, 1998. They noted that alt but one of these GLEs, June 15, 1991, were associated with a Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event with an enhanced Fe/O ratio. The Fe/O ratio observed for the June 15, 1991 event was only 0.03, well below the nominal coronal abundance of Fe/O = 0.134. For the remaining events, Fe/O ranged from 0.27 to over 3, welt over the nominal coronal value. During Solar Cycle 23, 14 more GLEs were observed, only one of which had very low Fe/O. This was the event of January 20, 2005, the largest ground-level neutron monitor event in 49 years. We will report on our efforts to find out whether the events of June 15, 1991 and January 20, 2005 have features in common, besides high Fe/O, that distinguish them from all other GLE events and may help determine the cause of elevated Fe/O in almost all GLE events. We will use energetic particle, magnetic field, and solar wind plasma data from NASA's IMP-8 Wind, and ACE spacecraft.

von Rosenvinge, Tycho T.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Warm Pool EI Nino Events in the GEOS CCM

A new type of EI Nino event has been identified in the last decade. During "warm pool" EI Nino (WPEN) events, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific are warmer than average. The EI Nino signal propagates poleward and upward as large-scale atmospheric waves, causing unusual weather patterns and warming the polar stratosphere. In austral summer, observations show that the Antarctic lower stratosphere is several degrees (K) warmer during WPEN events than during the neutral phase of EI Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Furthermore, the stratospheric response to WPEN events depends of the direction of tropical stratospheric winds: the Antarctic warming is largest when WPEN events are coincident with westward winds in the tropical lower and middle stratosphere i.e., the westward phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Westward winds are associated with enhanced convection in the subtropics, and with increased poleward wave activity. In this paper, a new formulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model, Version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) is used to substantiate the observed stratospheric response to WPEN events. One simulation is driven by SSTs typical of a WPEN event, while another simulation is driven by ENSO neutral SSTs; both represent a present-day climate. Differences between the two simulations can be directly attributed to the anomalous WPEN SSTs. During WPEN events, relative to ENSO neutral, the model simulates the observed increase in poleward planetary wave activity in the South Pacific during austral spring, as well as the relative warming of the Antarctic lower stratosphere in austral summer. However, the modeled response to WPEN does not depend on the phase of the QBO. The modeled tropical wind oscillation does not extend far enough into the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, likely explaining the model's insensitivity to the phase of the QBO during WPEN events.

Hurwitz, Margaret M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Tool for Automated Retrieval of Generic Event Tracks (TARGET)

Methods have been developed to identify and track tornado-producing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) automatically over the continental United States, in order to facilitate systematic studies of these powerful and often destructive events. Several data sources were combined to ensure event identification accuracy. Records of watches and warnings issued by National Weather Service (NWS), and tornado locations and tracks from the Tornado History Project (THP) were used to locate MCSs in high-resolution precipitation observations and GOES infrared (11-micron) Rapid Scan Operation (RSO) imagery. Thresholds are then applied to the latter two data sets to define MCS events and track their developments. MCSs produce a broad range of severe convective weather events that are significantly affecting the living conditions of the populations exposed to them. Understanding how MCSs grow and develop could help scientists improve their weather prediction models, and also provide tools to decision-makers whose goals are to protect populations and their property. Associating storm cells across frames of remotely sensed images poses a difficult problem because storms evolve, split, and merge. Any storm-tracking method should include the following processes: storm identification, storm tracking, and quantification of storm intensity and activity. The spatiotemporal coordinates of the tracks will enable researchers to obtain other coincident observations to conduct more thorough studies of these events. In addition to their tracked locations, their areal extents, precipitation intensities, and accumulations all as functions of their evolutions in time were also obtained and recorded for these events. All parameters so derived can be catalogued into a moving object database (MODB) for custom queries. The purpose of this software is to provide a generalized, cross-platform, pluggable tool for identifying events within a set of scientific data based upon specified criteria with the possibility of storing identified events into a searchable database. The core of the application uses an implementation of the connected component labeling (CCL) algorithm to identify areas of interest, then uses a set of criteria to establish spatial and temporal relationships between identified components. The CCL algorithm is used for identifying objects within images for computer vision. This application applies it to scientific data sets using arbitrary criteria. The most novel concept was applying a generalized CCL implementation to scientific data sets for establishing events both spatially and temporally. The combination of several existing concepts (pluggable components, generalized CCL algorithm, etc.) into one application is also novel. In addition, how the system is designed, i.e., its extensibility with pluggable components, and its configurability with a simple configuration file, is innovative. This allows the system to be applied to new scenarios with ease.

Clune, Thomas↗
NASA NTRS2012

Properties of Ground Level Enhancement Events and the Associated Solar Eruptions During Solar Cycle 23

Solar cycle 23 witnessed the most complete set of observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with the Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events. We present an overview of the observed properties of the GLEs and those of the two associated phenomena, viz., flares and CMEs, both being potential sources of particle acceleration. Although we do not find a striking correlation between the GLE intensity and the parameters of flares and CMEs, the solar eruptions are very intense involving X-class flares and extreme CME speeds (average approx. 2000 km/s). An M7.1 flare and a 1200 km/s CME are the weakest events in the list of 16 GLE events. Most (80 %) of the CMEs are full halos with the three non-halos having widths in the range 167 to 212 degrees. The active regions in which the GLE events originate are generally large: 1290 msh (median 1010 msh) compared to 934 msh (median: 790 msh) for SEP-producing active regions. For accurate estimation of the CME height at the time of metric type II onset and GLE particle release, we estimated the initial acceleration of the CMEs using flare and CME observations. The initial acceleration of GLE-associated CMEs is much larger (by a factor of 2) than that of ordinary CMEs (2.3 km/sq s vs. 1 km/sq s). We confirmed the initial acceleration for two events for which CME measurements are available in the inner corona. The GLE particle release is delayed with respect to the onset of all electromagnetic signatures of the eruptions: type II bursts, low frequency type III bursts, soft X-ray flares and CMEs. The presence of metric type II radio bursts some 17 min (median: 16 min; range: 3 to 48 min) before the GLE onset indicates shock formation well before the particle release. The release of GLE particles occurs when the CMEs reach an average height of approx 3.09 R(sub s) (median: 3.18 R (sub s) ; range: 1.71 to 4.01 R (sub s) ) for well-connected events (source longitude in the range W20–W90). For poorly connected events, the average CME height at GLE particle release is ∼66 % larger (mean: 5.18 R (sub s) ; median: 4.61 R (sub s) ; range: 2.75–8.49 R (sub s) ). The longitudinal dependence is consistent with shock accelerations because the shocks from poorly connected events need to expand more to cross the field lines connecting to an Earth observer. On the other hand, the CME height at metric type II burst onset has no longitudinal dependence because electromagnetic signals do not require magnetic connectivity to the observer. For several events, the GLE particle release is very close to the time of first appearance of the CME in the coronagraphic field of view, so we independently confirmed the CME height at particle release. The CME height at metric type II burst onset is in the narrow range 1.29 to 1.8 R(sub s), with mean and median values of 1.53 and 1.47 R(sub s). The CME heights at metric type II burst onset and GLE particle release correspond to the minimum and maximum in the Alfven speed profile. The increase in CME speed between these two heights suggests an increase in Alfvenic Mach number from 2 to 3. The CME heights at GLE particle release are in good agreement with those obtained from the velocity dispersion analysis, including the source longitude dependence. We also discuss the implications of the delay of GLE particle release with respect to complex type III bursts by approx 18 min (median: 16 in; range: 2 to 44 min) for the flare acceleration mechanism. A similar analysis is also performed on the delay of particle release relative to the hard X-ray emission.

Geomagnetic Storms↗
NASA NTRS2015

Large Solar Energetic Particle Events Associated With Filament Eruptions Outside Active Regions

We report on four large filament eruptions (FEs) from solar cycles 23 and 24 that were associated with large solar energetic particle (SEP) events and interplanetary type II radio bursts. The post-eruption arcades corresponded mostly to C-class soft X-ray enhancements, but an M1.0 flare was associated with one event. However, the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were fast (speeds approx. 1000 km/s) and appeared as halo CMEs in the coronagraph field of view. The interplanetary type II radio bursts occurred over a wide wavelength range, indicating the existence of strong shocks throughout the inner heliosphere. No metric type II bursts were present in three events, indicating that the shocks formed beyond 2-3 Rs. In one case, there was a metric type II burst with low starting frequency, indicating a shock formation height of approx.2 Rs. The FE-associated SEP events did have softer spectra (spectral index >4) in the 10-100 MeV range, but there were other low-intensity SEP events with spectral indices ⩾4. Some of these events are likely FE-SEP events, but were not classified as such in the literature because they occurred close to active regions. Some were definitely associated with large active region flares, but the shock formation height was large. We definitely find a diminished role for flares and complex type III burst durations in these large SEP events. Fast CMEs and shock formation at larger distances from the Sun seem to be the primary characteristics of the FE-associated SEP events.

filaments↗
NASA NTRS2017

Classification of Meteorological Influences Surrounding Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States using the MERRA-2 Reanalysis

Extreme precipitation events can have a large impact on society through flooding that can result in property destruction, crop losses, economic losses, the spread of water-borne diseases, and fatalities. Observations indicate there has been a statistically significant increase in extreme precipitation events over the past 15 years in the Northeastern United States and other localized regions of the country have become crippled with record flooding events, for example, the flooding that occurred in the Southeast United States associated with Hurricane Matthew in October 2016. Extreme precipitation events in the United States can be caused by various meteorological influences such as extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective complexes, general air mass thunderstorms, upslope flow, fronts, and the North American Monsoon. Reanalyses, such as the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), have become a pivotal tool to study the meteorology surrounding extreme precipitation events. Using days classified as an extreme precipitation events based on a combination of observational gauge and radar data, two techniques for the classification of these events are used to gather additional information that can be used to determine how events have changed over time using atmospheric data from MERRA-2. The first is self organizing maps, which is an artificial neural network that uses unsupervised learning to cluster like patterns and the second is an automated detection technique that searches for characteristics in the atmosphere that define a meteorological phenomena. For example, the automated detection for tropical cycles searches for a defined area of suppressed sea level pressure, alongside thickness anomalies aloft, indicating the presence of a warm core. These techniques are employed for extreme precipitation events in preselected regions that were chosen based an analysis of the climatology of precipitation.

Monsoon↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Statistical Study of Solar Particle Events in Flux and Dose

The high-energy protons from solar energetic particle (SEP) events present a hazard to space systems: damage to science instruments/electronics/materials or to astronauts. A reliable estimate of the high-energy proton environment is critical to assure mission success. Important characteristics of an SEP event are fluence, peak flux, energy spectrum, time to reach the peak flux, time to reach peak dose, and properties of the cumulative dose profile after an event starts. All of these characteristics are important to understand in order to design space missions properly for both robotic and human missions. Because of the unpredictable and sporadic nature of SEP events, statistical models are often used to represent the SEP parameters described above. In a study by Jun et al. (2007), the statistics of event fluences, durations, and time intervals between events were investigated using the then available historical SEP dataset obtained from the instruments onboard the IMP-8 spacecraft. Since then, a more comprehensive SEP dataset based off of IMP-8 and GOES called Reference Data Set Version 2.0 (RDSv2.0) has become available covering the SEP events up to Year 2015 under a framework of the European Space Agency's (ESA's) Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling (SEPEM) project (Jiggens et al., 2018). The main objectives of this statistical study of SEP events are two-fold: First, the statistics of peak fluxes, event fluences, durations, and time intervals will be re-visited by using RDSv2.0; Second, the statistical analyses of flux and dose timing will be performed using the same dataset RDSv2.0. The results of this study will address the statistical properties of all key parameters for designing a spacecraft or a human mission where the SEP environment is an important consideration.

Whitman, K.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Effect of volcanic emissions on clouds during the 2008 and 2018 Kilauea degassing events

Volcanic eruptions in otherwise clean environments are “natural experiments” wherein the effects of aerosol emissions on clouds and climate can be partitioned from meteorological variability and anthropogenic activities. In this work, we combined satellite retrievals, reanalysis products, and atmospheric modeling to analyze the mechanisms of aerosol–cloud interactions during two degassing events at the Kilauea volcano in 2008 and 2018. The eruptive nature of the 2008 and 2018 degassing events was distinct from long-term volcanic activity for Kilauea. Although previous studies assessed the modulation of cloud properties from the 2008 event, this is the first time such an analysis has been reported for the 2018 event and that multiple degassing events have been analyzed and compared at this location. Both events resulted in significant changes in cloud effective radius and cloud droplet number concentration that were decoupled from local meteorology and in line with an enhanced cloud albedo. However, it is likely that the effects of volcanic emissions on liquid water path and cloud fraction were largely offset by meteorological variability. Comparison of cloud anomalies between the two events suggested a threshold response of aerosol–cloud interactions to overcome meteorological effects, largely controlled by aerosol loading. In both events, the ingestion of aerosols within convective parcels enhanced the detrainment of condensate in the upper troposphere, resulting in deeper clouds than observed under pristine conditions. Accounting for ice nucleation on ash particles led to enhanced ice crystal concentrations at cirrus levels and a slight decrease in ice water content, improving the correlation of the model results with the satellite retrievals. Overall, aerosol loading, plume characteristics, and meteorology contributed to changes in cloud properties during the Kilauea degassing events.

Katherine H. Breen↗