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Application of Objectives-Driven Assurance Cases to System Development in an Evolving Acquisition Model

System properties such as “safety” and “dependability” cannot, in practice, be proven, and must be argued in an “assurance case” aimed at supporting risk-acceptance decisions that have to be made by system acquirers and/or regulatory authorities. The paper is concerned with applications of the “assurance case” idea early in design and development of new systems, when (apart from dedicated testing) the only available operating experience information derives from previous (non-identical) systems. Much of the discussion is based on an evolving acquisition model at the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration; previously, most major systems were developed in-house, but some major systems will now be developed by and acquired from commercial providers. Key points discussed include the following. (1) By promoting a particular kind of focused discussion between acquirers and providers, the use of assurance cases should be particularly valuable under the new acquisition model. (2) In principle, objectives-driven (sometimes called “performance-based”) approaches to assurance of performance have significant advantages in cases where they are applicable. (3) For truly novel systems, completeness of the safety analysis is a significant issue; it is important for the assurance case to include a commitment by the provider (or applicant) to seriously pursue analysis of operating experience, so that previously unrecognized hazards can be identified and addressed. (4) Inquiries into major accidents often point to deficiencies in management oversight in all parts of the life cycle; management processes need to be addressed in the formulation and the implementation of an assurance case. Under the new acquisition model, these considerations imply a serious reconsideration of the way in which the development process is managed by both providers and acquirers.

Objectives-driven↗

NASA NTRS1991

Controlled evolution of an RNA enzyme

It is generally thought that prior to the origin of protein synthesis, life on earth was based on self-replicating RNA molecules. This idea has become especially popular recently due to the discovery of catalytic RNA (ribozymes). RNA has both genotypic and phenotypic properties, suggesting that it is capable of undergoing Darwinian evolution. RNA evolution is likely to have played a critical role in the early history of life on earth, and thus is important in considering the possibility of life elsewhere in the solar system. We have constructed an RNA-based evolving system in the laboratory, combining amplification and mutation of an RNA genotype with selection of a corresponding RNA phenotype. This system serves as a functional model of a primitive organism. It can also be used as a tool to explore the catalytic potential of RNA. By altering the selection constraints, we are attempting to modify the substrate specificity of an existing ribozyme in order to develop ribozymes with novel catalytic function. In this way, we hope to gain a better understanding of RNA's catalytic versatility and to assess its suitability for the role of primordial catalyst. All of the RNA enzymes that are known to exist in contemporary biology carry out cleavage/ligation reactions involving RNA substrates. The Tetrahymena ribozyme, for example, catalyzes phosphoester transfer between a guanosine containing and an oligopyrimidine containing substrate. We tested the ability of mutant forms of the Tetrahymena ribozyme to carry out a comparable reaction using DNA, rather than RNA substrate. An ensemble of structural variants of the ribozyme was prepared and tested for their ability to specifically cleave d(GGCCCTCT-A3TA3TA) at the phosphodiester bond following the sequence CCCTCT. We recovered a mutant form of the enzyme that cleaves DNA more efficiently than does the wild-type. Beginning with this selected mutant we have now scattered random mutations throughout the ribozyme and have begun an evolutionary search to further expand the catalytic repertoire of RNA.

Joyce, G. F.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Luminosity segregation in galaxy clusters as an indication of dynamical evolution

Theoretical models describing the dynamical evolution of self-gravitating systems predict a spatial mass segregation for more evolved systems, with the more massive objects concentrated toward the center of the configuration. From the observational point of view, however, the existence of mass segregation in galaxy clusters seems to be a matter of controversy. A special problem in this connection is the formation of cD galaxies in the centers of galaxy clusters. The most promising scenarios of their formation are galaxy cannibalism (merger scenario) and growing by cooling flows. It seems to be plausible to consider the swallowing of smaller systems by a dominant galaxy as an important process in the evolution of a cD galaxy. The stage of the evolution of the dominant galaxy should be reflected by the surrounding galaxy population, especially by possible mass segregation effects. Assuming that mass segregation is tantamount to luminosity segregation we analyzed luminosity segregation in roughly 40 cD galaxy clusters. Obviously there are three different groups of clusters: (1) clusters with luminosity segregation, (2) clusters without luminosity segregation, and (3) such objects exhibiting a phenomenon which we call antisegregation in luminosity, i.e. a deficiency of bright galaxies in the central regions of clusters. This result is interpreted in the sense of different degrees of mass segregation and as an indication for different evolution stages of these clusters. The clusters are arranged in the three segregation classes 2, 1, and 0 (S2 = strong mass segregation, S1 = moderate mass segregation, S0 = weak or absent mass segregation). We assume that a galaxy cluster starts its dynamical evolution after virialization without any radial mass segregation. Energy exchange during encounters of cluster members as well as merger processes between cluster galaxies lead to an increasing radial mass segregation in the cluster (S1). If a certain degree of segregation (S2) has been established, an essential number of slow-moving and relative massive cluster members in the center will be cannibalized by the initial brightest cluster galaxy. This process should lead to the growing of the predominate galaxy, which is accompanied by a diminution of the mass segregation (transition to S1 and S0, respectively) in the neighborhood of the central very massive galaxy. An increase of the areal density of brighter galaxies towards the outer cluster regions (antisegregation of luminosity), i.e. an extreme low degree of mass segregation was estimated for a substantial percentage of cD clusters. This result favors the cannibalism scenario for the formation of cD galaxies.

Baier, F. W.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Applications of SLR

Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) has a rich history of development which began in the 1960s with 10 meter-level first generation systems. These systems evolved with order of magnitude improvements to the systems that now produce several millimeter single shot range precisions. What began, in part, as an interesting application of the new laser technology has become an essential component of modern, precision space geodesy, which in turn enables contributions to a variety of science areas. Modern space geodesy is the beneficiary of technological developments which have enabled precision geodetic measurements. Aside from SLR and its closely related technique, Lunar Laser Ranging (LLR), Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) has made prominent science contributions also. In recent years, the Global Positioning System (GPS) has demonstrated a rapidly growing popularity as the result of demonstrated low cost with high precision instrumentation. Other modern techniques such as DORIS have demonstrated the ability to make significant science contributions; furthermore, PRARE can be expected to contribute in its own right. An appropriate question is 'why should several techniques be financially supported'? While there are several answers, I offer the opinion that, in consideration of the broad science areas that are the benefactors of space geodesy, no single technique can meet all the requirements and/or expectations of the science areas in which space geodesy contributes or has the potential for contributing. The more well-known science areas include plate tectonics, earthquake processes, Earth rotation/orientation, gravity (static and temporal), ocean circulation, land, and ice topography, to name a few applications. It is unfortunate that the modern space geodesy techniques are often viewed as competitive, but this view is usually encouraged by funding competition, especially in an era of growing needs but diminishing budgets. The techniques are, for the most part, complementary and the ability to reduce the data to geodetic parameters from several techniques promotes confidence in the geophysical interpretations. In the following sections, the current SLR applications are reviewed in the context of the other techniques. The strengths and limitations of SLR are reviewed and speculation about the future prospects are offered.

Schutz, Bob E.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Evolution of the INMARSAT aeronautical system: Service, system, and business considerations

A market-driven approach was adopted to develop enhancements to the Inmarsat-Aeronautical system, to address the requirements of potential new market segments. An evolutionary approach and well differentiated product/service portfolio was required, to minimize system upgrade costs and market penetration, respectively. The evolved system definition serves to minimize equipment cost/size/mass for short/medium range aircraft, by reducing the antenna gain requirement and relaxing the performance requirements for non safety-related communications. A validation program involving simulation, laboratory tests, over-satellite tests and flight trials is being conducted to confirm the system definition. Extensive market research has been conducted to determine user requirements and to quantify market demand for future Inmarsat Aero-1 AES, using sophisticated computer assisted survey techniques.

Sengupta, Jay R.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Estimation and Analysis of Nonlinear Stochastic Systems

The algebraic and geometric structures of certain classes of nonlinear stochastic systems were exploited in order to obtain useful stability and estimation results. The class of bilinear stochastic systems (or linear systems with multiplicative noise) was discussed. The stochastic stability of bilinear systems driven by colored noise was considered. Approximate methods for obtaining sufficient conditions for the stochastic stability of bilinear systems evolving on general Lie groups were discussed. Two classes of estimation problems involving bilinear systems were considered. It was proved that, for systems described by certain types of Volterra series expansions or by certain bilinear equations evolving on nilpotent or solvable Lie groups, the optimal conditional mean estimator consists of a finite dimensional nonlinear set of equations. The theory of harmonic analysis was used to derive suboptimal estimators for bilinear systems driven by white noise which evolve on compact Lie groups or homogeneous spaces.

Marcus, S. I.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Quantitative simulation of extraterrestrial engineering devices

This is a multicomponent, multidisciplinary project whose overall objective is to build an integrated database, simulation, visualization, and optimization system for the proposed oxygen manufacturing plant on Mars. Specifically, the system allows users to enter physical description, engineering, and connectivity data through a uniform, user-friendly interface and stores the data in formats compatible with other software also developed as part of this project. These latter components include: (1) programs to simulate the behavior of various parts of the plant in Martian conditions; (2) an animation program which, in different modes, provides visual feedback to designers and researchers about the location of and temperature distribution among components as well as heat, mass, and data flow through the plant as it operates in different scenarios; (3) a control program to investigate the stability and response of the system under different disturbance conditions; and (4) an optimization program to maximize or minimize various criteria as the system evolves into its final design. All components of the system are interconnected so that changes entered through one component are reflected in the others.

Arabyan, A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The MSFC Collaborative Engineering Process for Preliminary Design and Concept Definition Studies

This paper describes a collaborative engineering process developed by the Marshall Space Flight Center's Advanced Concepts Office for performing rapid preliminary design and mission concept definition studies for potential future NASA missions. The process has been developed and demonstrated for a broad range of mission studies including human space exploration missions, space transportation system studies and in-space science missions. The paper will describe the design team structure and specialized analytical tools that have been developed to enable a unique rapid design process. The collaborative engineering process consists of integrated analysis approach for mission definition, vehicle definition and system engineering. The relevance of the collaborative process elements to the standard NASA NPR 7120.1 system engineering process will be demonstrated. The study definition process flow for each study discipline will be will be outlined beginning with the study planning process, followed by definition of ground rules and assumptions, definition of study trades, mission analysis and subsystem analyses leading to a standardized set of mission concept study products. The flexibility of the collaborative engineering design process to accommodate a wide range of study objectives from technology definition and requirements definition to preliminary design studies will be addressed. The paper will also describe the applicability of the collaborative engineering process to include an integrated systems analysis approach for evaluating the functional requirements of evolving system technologies and capabilities needed to meet the needs of future NASA programs.

Mulqueen, Jack↗

NASA NTRS2016

Towards a Methodology and Tooling for Model-Based Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) aims to identify and assess potential risks to system technical performance requirements for the purpose of furnishing risk insights into project decisions. PRAs have traditionally been conducted manually using software with an isolated data model. As system complexity rises it becomes difficult to ensure consistency between a PRA, the evolving system design, and other engineering analyses; the techniques for conducting PRAs must evolve to meet this challenge. This work presents progress towards a methodology and tooling for conducting a PRA by leveraging data in the system model, embedded for other purposes and analyses, to conduct a PRA. An approach for identifying the appropriate probabilistic equation for each risk scenario from a standard library is presented, which is a significant step towards the quantification of the likelihood of a risk scenario occurrence. The final calculation of the likelihood of occurrence is left as an item of future work. We also present the development of preliminary tooling to carry out the methodology on a well-formed system model. The information needed to conduct the PRA is embedded in a consistent manner in a system model, so the model-based PRA can be regularly executed as the system model changes. The ability to modify the PRA in concert with lifecycle evolution affords a project the opportunity to track the extent to which system modification impacts compliance with requirements. These aspects of this model-based PRA methodology make it capable of managing risk in increasingly complex technical systems.

Schreiner, Samuel S.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Hot melt adhesive pad surface attachment assembly concept for on-orbit operations

The use of a hot melt adhesive concept to develop a Surface Attachment Assembly (SAA) for on-orbit attachment and detachment operations for the Manned Maneuvering Unit (MMU) was investigated. The concept involved impregnation of the hot melt adhesive into a fiberglass covered pad which contained electrical heating and thermoelectric cooling devices. The polyamide hot melt adhesive selected can be repeatedly heated to its melting point in a vacuum and provide good adhesion to various surfaces, i.e., reusable surface insulation tiles, metals, and composites, when cooled. After a series of adhesive screening tests, Jet-Melt 3746 was selected from a group of commercially available thermoplastic adhesive candidates which met or exceeded many of the criteria established for the SAA system. The SAA system was designed and fabricted with the goal of proving the concept with a working model rather than attempting to optimize all facets of the system. This system evolved by investigating alternate attachment concepts, designing and fabricating electronic systems to heat and cool the adhesive, and then fabricating electronic systems to heat and cool the adhesive, and then fabricating and testing two prototype full-size units.

Progar, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS2006

State Analysis Database Tool

The State Analysis Database Tool software establishes a productive environment for collaboration among software and system engineers engaged in the development of complex interacting systems. The tool embodies State Analysis, a model-based system engineering methodology founded on a state-based control architecture (see figure). A state represents a momentary condition of an evolving system, and a model may describe how a state evolves and is affected by other states. The State Analysis methodology is a process for capturing system and software requirements in the form of explicit models and states, and defining goal-based operational plans consistent with the models. Requirements, models, and operational concerns have traditionally been documented in a variety of system engineering artifacts that address different aspects of a mission s lifecycle. In State Analysis, requirements, models, and operations information are State Analysis artifacts that are consistent and stored in a State Analysis Database. The tool includes a back-end database, a multi-platform front-end client, and Web-based administrative functions. The tool is structured to prompt an engineer to follow the State Analysis methodology, to encourage state discovery and model description, and to make software requirements and operations plans consistent with model descriptions.

Rasmussen, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2004

Distributed Control by Lagrangian Steepest Descent

Often adaptive, distributed control can be viewed as an iterated game between independent players. The coupling between the players mixed strategies, arising as the system evolves from one instant to the next, is determined by the system designer. Information theory tells us that the most likely joint strategy of the players, given a value of the expectation of the overall control objective function, is the minimizer of a function o the joint strategy. So the goal of the system designer is to speed evolution of the joint strategy to that Lagrangian mhimbhgpoint,lowerthe expectated value of the control objective function, and repeat Here we elaborate the theory of algorithms that do this using local descent procedures, and that thereby achieve efficient, adaptive, distributed control.

Wolpert, David H.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Infinite possibilities: Computational structures technology

Computational Fluid Dynamics (or CFD) methods are very familiar to the research community. Even the general public has had some exposure to CFD images, primarily through the news media. However, very little attention has been paid to CST--Computational Structures Technology. Yet, no important design can be completed without it. During the first half of this century, researchers only dreamed of designing and building structures on a computer. Today their dreams have become practical realities as computational methods are used in all phases of design, fabrication and testing of engineering systems. Increasingly complex structures can now be built in even shorter periods of time. Over the past four decades, computer technology has been developing, and early finite element methods have grown from small in-house programs to numerous commercial software programs. When coupled with advanced computing systems, they help engineers make dramatic leaps in designing and testing concepts. The goals of CST include: predicting how a structure will behave under actual operating conditions; designing and complementing other experiments conducted on a structure; investigating microstructural damage or chaotic, unpredictable behavior; helping material developers in improving material systems; and being a useful tool in design systems optimization and sensitivity techniques. Applying CST to a structure problem requires five steps: (1) observe the specific problem; (2) develop a computational model for numerical simulation; (3) develop and assemble software and hardware for running the codes; (4) post-process and interpret the results; and (5) use the model to analyze and design the actual structure. Researchers in both industry and academia continue to make significant contributions to advance this technology with improvements in software, collaborative computing environments and supercomputing systems. As these environments and systems evolve, computational structures technology will evolve. By using CST in the design and operation of future structures systems, engineers will have a better understanding of how a system responds and lasts, more cost-effective methods of designing and testing models, and improved productivity. For informational and educational purposes, a videotape is being produced using both static and dynamic images from research institutions, software and hardware companies, private individuals, and historical photographs and drawings. The extensive number of CST resources indicates its widespread use. Applications run the gamut from simpler university-simulated problems to those requiring solutions on supercomputers. In some cases, an image or an animation will be mapped onto the actual structure to show the relevance of the computer model to the structure. Transferring the digital files to videotape presents a number of problems related to maintaining the quality of the original image, while still producing a broadcast quality videotape. Since researchers normally do not create a computer image using traditional composition theories or video production requirements, often the image loses some of its original digital quality and impact when transferred to videotape. Although many CST images are currently available, those that are edited into the final project must meet two important criteria: they must complement the narration, and they must be broadcast quality when recorded on videotape.

Beam, Sherilee F.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Design and Development of a Methane Cryogenic Propulsion Stage for Human Mars Exploration

NASA is currently working on the Evolvabe Mars Campaign (EMC) study to outline transportation and mission options for human exploration of Mars. One of the key aspects of the EMC is leveraging current and planned near-term technology investments to build an affordable and evolvable approach to Mars exploration. This leveraging of investments includes the use of high-power Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) systems evolved from those currently under development in support of the Asteroid Redirect Mission to deliver payloads to Mars. The EMC is considering several transportation options that combine solar electric and chemical propulsion technologies to deliver crew and cargo to Mars. In one primary architecture option, the SEP propulsion system is used to pre-deploy mission elements to Mars while a high-thrust chemical propulsion system is used to send crew on faster ballistic transfers between Earth and Mars. This high-thrust chemical system uses liquid oxygen - liquid methane main propulsion and reaction control systems integrated into the Methane Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (MCPS). Over the past year, there have been several studies completed to provide critical design and development information related to the MCPS. This paper is intended to provide a summary of these efforts. A summary of the current point of departure design for the MCPS is provided as well as an overview of the mission architecture and concept of operations that the MCPS is intended to support. To leverage the capabilities of solar electric propulsion to the greatest extent possible, the EMC architecture pre-deploys the required stages for returning crew from Mars. While this changes the risk posture of the architecture, it provides mass savings by using higher-efficiency systems for interplanetary transfer. However, this does introduce significantly longer flight times to Mars which, in turn, increases the overall lifetime of the stages to as long as 3000 days. This unique aspect to the concept of operations introduces several challenges, specifically related to propellant storage and engine reliability. These challenges and some potential solutions are discussed. Specific focus is provided on two key technology areas; propulsion and cryogenic fluid management. In the area of propulsion development, the development of an integrated methane propulsion system that combines both main propulsion and reaction control is discussed. This includes an overview of potential development paths, areas where development for Mars applications are complementary to development efforts underway in other parts of the aerospace industry, and commonality between the MCPS methane propulsion applications and other Mars elements, including the Mars lander systems. This commonality is a key affordability aspect of the Evolvable Mars Campaign. A similar discussion is provided for cryogenic fluid management technologies including a discussion of how using cryo-propulsion in the Mars transportation application not only provides performance benefits but also leverages decades of technology development investments made by NASA and its aerospace contractor community.

Percy, Thomas K.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Design and Development of a Methane Cryogenic Propulsion Stage for Human Mars Exploration

NASA is currently working on the Evolvabe Mars Campaign (EMC) study to outline transportation and mission options for human exploration of Mars. One of the key aspects of the EMC is leveraging current and planned near-term technology investments to build an affordable and evolvable approach to Mars exploration. This leveraging of investments includes the use of high-power Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) systems, evolved from those currently under development in support of the Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM), to deliver payloads to Mars. The EMC is considering several transportation options that combine solar electric and chemical propulsion technologies to deliver crew and cargo to Mars. In one primary architecture option, the SEP propulsion system is used to pre-deploy mission elements to Mars while a high-thrust chemical propulsion system is used to send crew on faster ballistic transfers between Earth and Mars. This high-thrust chemical system uses liquid oxygen - liquid methane main propulsion and reaction control systems integrated into the Methane Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (MCPS). Over the past year, there have been several studies completed to provide critical design and development information related to the MCPS. This paper is intended to provide a summary of these efforts. A summary of the current point of departure design for the MCPS is provided as well as an overview of the mission architecture and concept of operations that the MCPS is intended to support. To leverage the capabilities of solar electric propulsion to the greatest extent possible, the EMC architecture pre-deploys to Mars orbit the stages required for returning crew from Mars. While this changes the risk posture of the architecture, it can provide some mass savings by using higher-efficiency systems for interplanetary transfer. However, this does introduce significantly longer flight times to Mars which, in turn, increases the overall lifetime of the stages to as long as 2500 days. This unique aspect to the concept of operations introduces several challenges, specifically related to propellant storage and engine reliability. These challenges and some potential solutions are discussed. Specific focus is provided on two key technology areas; propulsion and cryogenic fluid management. In the area of propulsion development, the development of an integrated methane propulsion system that combines both main propulsion and reaction control is discussed. This includes an overview of potential development paths, areas where development for Mars applications are complementary to development efforts underway in other parts of the aerospace industry, and commonality between the MCPS methane propulsion applications and other Mars elements, including the Mars lander systems. This commonality is a key affordability aspect of the Evolvable Mars Campaign. A similar discussion is provided for cryogenic fluid management technologies including a discussion of how using cryo propulsion in the Mars transportation application not only provides performance benefits but also leverages decades of technology development investments made by NASA and its aerospace contractor community.

Percy, Thomas K.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The kinematics of dense clusters of galaxies. I - The data

We have measured redshifts in the fields of the 31 R greater than 1 Abell clusters with z of 0.02-0.05 and absolute b exp II above 30 deg. At least ten of the fields are severely contaminated by superimposed velocity peaks. We derive the mean velocities and velocity dispersions of the 25 dense peaks in the sample. The abundance of peaks, 6.6 x 10 exp -6 h-cubed Mpc exp -3, is consistent with the mean number density of R above 1 Abell clusters. The range of velocity dispersions is 304-1346 km/s. The median dispersion is 718 km/s. The subset of eight systems with cD galaxies has a median velocity dispersion of 792 km/s, close to that of non-cD systems (626 km/s). When these data are combined with 16 cD cluster velocity dispersions from our previous study (Zabludoff et al., 1990, or ZHG) and Dunn (1991), eight of 25 cD galaxies have peculiar motions larger than half the cluster velocity dispersions. These findings further support the conclusions of Beers and Geller (1983), ZHG, and Dunn (1991), who argue that cD galaxies do not lie in the global kinematic center, but in local potential minima. If so, systems with speeding cD's are probably a guide to substructure in dynamically evolving systems.

Zabludoff, Ann I.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Satellites for distress alerting and locating: Report by Interagency Committee for Search and Rescue Ad Hoc Working Group

The background behind the congressional legislation that led to the requirement for the Emergency Locator Transmitter (ELT) and the Emergency Position-Indicating Radio Beacon (EPIRB) to be installed on certain types of aircraft and inspected marine vessels respectively is discussed. The DAL problem is discussed for existing ELT and EPIRB equipped aircraft and ships. It is recognized that the DAL requirement for CONUS and Alaska and the maritime regions are not identical. In order to address the serious DAL problem which currently exists in CONUS and Alaska, a low orbiting satellite system evolves as the most viable and cost effective alternative that satisfies the overall SAR system design requirements. A satellite system designed to meet the needs of the maritime regions could be either low orbiting or geostationary. The conclusions drawn from this report support the recommendation to proceed with the implementation of a SAR orbiting satellite system.

Ehrlich, E.↗

NASA NTRS1974

A class of finite dimensional optimal nonlinear estimators

Finite dimensional optimal nonlinear state estimators are derived for bilinear systems evolving on nilpotent and solvable Lie groups. These results are extended to other classes of systems involving polynomial nonlinearities. The concepts of exact differentials and path-independent integrals are used to derive optimal finite dimensional estimators for a further class of nonlinear systems.

Marcus, S. I.↗