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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Agricultural Burning and Air Quality over Northern India: A Synergistic Analysis Using NASA's A-Train Satellite Data and Ground Measurements

In the recent years, New Delhi, the capital city of India, has ranked among the most polluted cities in the world regarding its air quality related to the submicron Particulate Matter (PM(sub 2.5)). Using NASA's A-train satellite data (MODIS, OMI, and CALIOP), ground-level PM2.5 measured in New Delhi (2013-2016), and back-trajectory calculations, we show that the PM(sub 2.5). over New Delhi is strongly affected by the agricultural fires in the northwestern Indian states of Punjab and Haryana during the post-monsoon season (October and November). The mass concentration of PM2.5 escalates from ~50 μg m(exp -3) measured prior to the onset of residue burning in early October to as high as 300 μg m(exp -3) (24-hour averaged, 7- day running mean) during the peak burning period in early November. A linear regression analysis reveals that the variations in PM(sub 2.5) over New Delhi can be attributed to the concurrent changes in the satellite retrievals of fire counts and aerosols over the crop burning area. The back-trajectory analysis shows that most clusters (> 80%) of the northwesterly flow near the ground intercepted the crop burning region before arriving at the receptor location in New Delhi; this further corroborates the transport patterns inferred from the satellite data. A 15-year long satellite record (2002-2016) reveals an increasing trend in agricultural fires (~617 per year) and aerosol loading (0.031 and 0.04 per year in aerosol optical depth and UV aerosol index) in November. Increasing levels of crop residue burning and resulting particulate matter pollution at an alarming rate over northern India is a pressing concern demanding corrective measures to substantially reduce or completely diminish the crop burning through an effective residue management system.

Crop Residue Fires↗
NASA NTRS1997

Comparative Soot Diagnostics: Preliminary Results

The motivation for the Comparative Soot Diagnostics (CSD) experiment lies in the broad practical importance of understanding combustion generated particulate. Depending upon the circumstances, particulate matter can affect the durability and performance of combustion equipment, can be a pollutant, can be used to detect fires and, in the form of soot, can be the dominant source of radiant energy from flames. The nonbuoyant structure of most flames of practical interest makes understanding of soot processes in low gravity flames important to our ability to predict fire behavior on earth. These studies also have direct applications to fire safety in human-crew spacecraft, since smoke is the indicator used for automated detection in current spacecraft. In the earliest missions (Mercury, Gemini and Apollo), the crew quarters were so cramped that it was considered reasonable that the astronauts would rapidly detect any fire. The Skylab module, however, included approximately 20 UV-sensing fire detectors. The Space Shuttle has 9 particle-ionization smoke detectors in the mid-deck and flight deck and Spacelab has six additional particle-ionization smoke detectors. The designated detectors for the ISS are laser-diode, forward-scattering, smoke or particulate detectors. Current plans for the ISS call for two detectors in the open area of the module, and detectors in racks that have both cooling air flow and electrical power. Due to the complete absence of data concerning the nature of particulate and radiant emission from incipient and fully developed low-g fires, all three of these detector systems were designed based upon l-g test data and experience. As planned mission durations and complexity increase and the volume of spacecraft increases, the need for and importance of effective, crew-independent, fire detection grows significantly. To provide this level of protection, more knowledge is needed concerning low-gravity fire phenomena and, in particular, how they might be detected and suppressed. Prior to CSD, no combustion-generated particulate samples had been collected near the flame zone for well-developed microgravity flames. All of the extant data either came from drop tower tests and therefore only corresponded to the early stages of a fire or were collected far from the flame zone. The fuel sources in the drop tower tests were restricted to laminar gas-jet diffusion flames and very rapidly overheated wire insulation. The gas-jet tests indicated, through thermophoretic sampling, (2) that soot primaries and aggregates (groups of primary particles) in low-gravity may be significantly larger than those in normal gravity (1-g). This raises new scientific questions about soot processes as well as practical issues for particulate size sensitivity and detection alarm threshold levels used in on-orbit smoke detectors. Preliminary tests in the 2.2 second drop tower suggest that particulate generated by overheated wire insulation may be larger in low-g than in 1-g. Transmission Electron Microscope (TEM) grids downstream of the fire region in the Wire Insulation Flammability experiment as well as visual observation of long string-like aggregates, further confirm this suggestion. The combined impact of these limited results and theoretical predictions is that, as opposed to extrapolation from l-g data, direct knowledge of low-g combustion particulate is needed for more confident design of smoke detectors for spacecraft. This paper describes the operation and preliminary results of the CSD, a project conceived and developed at NASA Lewis Research Center. The CSD flight experiment was conducted in the Middeck Glovebox Facility (MGBX) on USMP-3. The project is support by NASA Headquarters Microgravity Science and Applications Division and Code Q. The results presented here are from the microgravity portion of the experiment, including the temporal response of the detectors and average sizes of the primary and aggregate particles captured on the thermophoretic probes.

Urban, David L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal Frequency-domain Analysis for Spacecraft Time Series: Introducing the Missing-data Multitaper Power Spectrum Estimator

While the Lomb–Scargle periodogram is foundational to astronomy, it has a significant shortcoming: the variance in the estimated power spectrum does not decrease as more data are acquired. Statisticians have a 60 yr history of developing variance-suppressing power spectrum estimators, but most are not used in astronomy because they are formulated for time series with uniform observing cadence and without seasonal or daily gaps. Here we demonstrate how to apply the missing-data multitaper power spectrum estimator to spacecraft data with uniform time intervals between observations but missing data during thruster fires or momentum dumps. The F-test for harmonic components may be applied to multitaper power spectrum estimates to identify statistically significant oscillations that would not rise above a white noise–based false alarm probability. Multitapering improves the dynamic range of the power spectrum estimate and suppresses spectral window artifacts. We show that the multitaper–F-test combination applied to Kepler observations of KIC 6102338 detects differential rotation without requiring iterative sinusoid fitting and subtraction. Significant signals reside at harmonics of both fundamental rotation frequencies and suggest an antisolar rotation profile. Next we use the missing-data multitaper power spectrum estimator to identify the oscillation modes responsible for the complex "scallop-shell" shape of the K2 light curve of EPIC 203354381. We argue that multitaper power spectrum estimators should be used for all time series with regular observing cadence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2013

Design and Development of Functionally Effective Human-Machine Interfaces for Firing Room Displays

This project involves creating software for support equipment used on the Space Launch System (SLS). The goal is to create applications and displays that will be used to remotely operate equipment from the firing room and will continue to support the SLS launch vehicle to the extent of its program. These displays include design practices that help to convey information effectively, such as minimizing distractions at normal operating state and displaying intentional distractions during a warning or alarm state. The general practice for creating an operator display is to reduce the detail of unimportant aspects of the display and promote focus on data and dynamic information. These practices include using minimalist design, using muted tones for background colors, using a standard font at a readable text size, displaying alarms visible for immediate attention, grouping data logically, and displaying data appropriately varying on the type of data. Users of these displays are more likely to stay focused on operating for longer periods by using design practices that reduce eye strain and fatigue. Effective operator displays will improve safety by reducing human errors during operation, which will help prevent catastrophic accidents. This report entails the details of my work on developing remote displays for the Hypergolic fuel servicing system. Before developing a prototype display, the design and requirements of the system are outlined and compiled into a document. Then each subsystem has schematic representations drawn that meet the specifications detailed in the document. The schematics are then used as the outline to create display representations of each subsystem. Each display is first tested individually. Then the displays are integrated with a prototype of the master system, and they are tested in a simulated environment then retested in the real environment. Extensive testing is important to ensure the displays function reliably as intended.

displays↗
NASA NTRS1990

Vibration analyzer

The invention relates to monitoring circuitry for the real time detection of vibrations of a predetermined frequency and which are greater than a predetermined magnitude. The circuitry produces an instability signal in response to such detection. The circuitry is particularly adapted for detecting instabilities in rocket thrusters, but may find application with other machines such as expensive rotating machinery, or turbines. The monitoring circuitry identifies when vibration signals are present having a predetermined frequency of a multi-frequency vibration signal which has an RMS energy level greater than a predetermined magnitude. It generates an instability signal only if such a vibration signal is identified. The circuitry includes a delay circuit which responds with an alarm signal only if the instability signal continues for a predetermined time period. When used with a rocket thruster, the alarm signal may be used to cut off the thruster if such thruster is being used in flight. If the circuitry is monitoring tests of the thruster, it generates signals to change the thruster operation, for example, from pulse mode to continuous firing to determine if the instability of the thruster is sustained once it is detected.

Bozeman, Richard J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Design and Development of Functionally Effective Human-Machine Interfaces for Firing Room Displays

This project involves creating software for support equipment used on the Space l aunch System (SLS). The goal is to create applications and displays that will be used to remotely operate equipment from the firing room and will continue to support the SLS launch vehicle to the extent of its program. These displays include design practices that help to convey information effectively, such as minimizing distractions at normal operating state and displaying intentional distractions during a warning or alarm state. The general practice for creating an operator display is to reduce the detail of unimportant aspects of the display and promote focus on data and dynamic information. These practices include using minimalist design, using muted tones for background colors, using a standard font at a readable text size, displaying alarms visible for Immediate attention, grouping data logically, and displaying data appropriately varying on the type of data. Users of these displays are more likely to stay focused on operating for longer periods by using design practices that reduce eye strain and fatigue. Effective operator displays will improve safety by reducing human errors during operation, which will help prevent catastrophic accidents. This report entails the details of my work on developing remote displays for the Hypergolics ground system. Before developing a prototype display, the design and requirements of the system are outlined and compiled into a document. Then each subsystem has schematic representations drawn tha.t meet the specifications detailed in the document. The schematics are then used as the outline to create display representations of each subsystem. Each display is first tested individually. Then the displays are integrated with a prototype of the master system, and they are tested in a simulated environment then retested in the real environment. Extensive testing is important to ensure the displays function reliably as intended.

Cho, Henry↗
NASA NTRS2019

Surface Emissivity Impacts on GOES-R Series Multi-Spectral Imagery Applications

Value-added imagery products from the GOES-R series Advanced Baseline Imager are used to identify features of interest for operational forecasters, including: blowing dust, smoke, volcanic ash, cloud cover, atmospheric moisture, biomass fires and snow cover. These features each have a specific spectral signal that algorithms are designed to detect, but those signals are not always unique to just a single feature. Sometimes, the surface can mimic the spectral signal associated with an atmospheric feature of interest, creating a false alarm in a value-added product which negatively impacts interpretation of that product. This case study focuses on one such situation where areas of desert in the southwestern United States mimic the positive value associated with low clouds in the Brightness Temperature Difference (BTD) between the 10.35 μm and 3.9 μm channels, producing a false alarm. In order to characterize these “false alarm” areas, this study uses the cloud-cleared background product from the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) to create a dataset of the cloud-free surface. Previous results have shown that cloud-cleared backgrounds of the 10.35 μm-3.9 μm BTD have successfully identified areas of positive BTDs in the cloud-free environment, proving that it is a property of the surface emissivity and a true “false alarm”. This study builds on that previous research to further characterize the seasonality of the “false-alarm” regions and to catalogue how they impact interpretation of multi-spectral imagery products from the GOES-R series ABI, especially the Nighttime Microphysics RGB created by NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center.

Burke, Angela↗
NASA NTRS1997

Dynamics Questions Associated with the AERCam Sprint Free-Flyer

The International Space Station will require the development of small robotic vehicles for such tasks as external inspection, monitoring of extravehicular activities (EVA's) and station build-up, and providing additional lighting at EVA worksites. The Autonomous EVA Robotic Camera (AERCam) family of free-flyers is currently being developed at NASA Johnson Space Center to perform these functions; the first member of the family is the AERCam Sprint vehicle. Many interesting dynamical questions are associated with the Sprint free-flyer. For instance, the reaction of a vehicle which is nearly spherically symmetric (such as Sprint) to a stuck-on thruster is significantly more complicated than that obtained for an idealized, perfectly spherical, spacecraft model. In particular, the real spacecraft will experience a form of forced nutation, with convergence towards either its major or minor principal axis, depending on both the applied torque and the mass properties of the vehicle. Furthermore, the body-fixed jet force vector may have a significant component along this principal axis, so giving rise to a considerable net linear acceleration of the spacecraft. The large velocity that can result is very important, as it may lead to collision with the nearby Orbiter, and is completely overlooked in the idealized analysis. This report will firstly briefly describe the stuck-on thruster dynamics of the real vehicle, and outline how the small products of inertia of the spacecraft determine the time constants of the motion. Secondly, the dynamical effects of a failed-off jet on the Sprint free-flyer will be described in more detail, and compared with the stuck-on thruster case. This will help to show whether the two malfunctions should be dealt with differently in flight. Finally, the stuck-on thruster detection software (known as the uncommanded motion algorithm) that is proposed to be flown on the Sprint vehicle will be analyzed, and all possible perturbation sources that may tend to give rise to false stuck-on thruster alarms quantified. It will be shown that false alarms can be triggered by discrete events such as a failed-off thruster, a glancing collision with Orbiter structure, or thruster saturation. They can also be triggered by a combination of errors introduced by constantly present sources such as thrust level errors, thruster misalignment, inertial cross-coupling, angular rate sensor noise, and structural vibrations induced by thruster firings. Based on this fact, the original plan to have the spacecraft enter safe mode whenever the uncommanded motion algorithm is triggered does not appear to be advisable. A better approach seems to be to provide the Sprint pilot with a warning whenever uncommanded motion is detected, and then allow the crew to determine whether safing the vehicle is appropriate.

Williams, Trevor↗
NASA NTRS2004

The GOES-R Lightning Mapper Sensor

The Lightning Mapper Sensor on GOES-R builds on previous measurements of lightning from low earth orbit by the OTD (Optical Transient Detector) and LIS (Lightning Imaging Sensor) sensors. Unlike observations from low earth orbit, the GOES-R platform will allow continuous monitoring of lightning activity over the Continental United States and southern Canada, Central and South America, and portions of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The LMS will detect total (cloud-to-ground and intracloud) lightning at storm scale resolution (approx. 8 km) using a highly sensitive Charge Coupled Device (CCD) detector array. Discrimination between lightning optical transients and a bright sunlit background scene is accomplished by employing spectral, spatial, and temporal filtering along with a background subtraction technique. The result is 24 hour detection capability of total lightning. These total lightning observations can be made available to users within about 20 seconds. Research indicates a number of ways that total lightning observations from LMS could benefit operational activities, including 1) potential increases in lead times and reduced false alarms for severe thunderstorm and tornado Warnings, 2) improved routing of &rail around thunderstorms, 3) support for spacecraft launches and landings, 4) improved ability to monitor tropical cyclone intensity, 5) ability to monitor thunderstorm intensification/weakening during radar outages or where radar coverage is poor, 6) better identification of deep convection for the initialization of numerical prediction models, 7) improved forest fire forecasts, 8) identification of convective initiation, 9) identification of heavy convective snowfall, and 10) enhanced temporal resolution of storm evolution (1 minute) than is available from radar observations. Total lightning data has been used in an operational environment since July 2003 at the Huntsville, Alabama National Weather Service office. Total lightning measurements are obtained by the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and have successfully been used in warning decisions. Every 2 minutes, total lightning counts in 2 km by 2 km horizontal, 1 km vertical grids are available to forecasters on an AWIPS (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System) workstation. Experience with the LMA total lightning data is used to illustrate the potential use of LMS data that would be available to forecasters across the US. This abstract is for submission as a presentation to the National Weather Association Annual Meeting to be held 16-21 October 2004 in Portland, OR. This abstract will be published in the conference proceedings.

Buechler, Dennis↗
NASA NTRS2007

ISS Destiny Laboratory Smoke Detection Model

Smoke transport and detection were modeled numerically in the ISS Destiny module using the NIST, Fire Dynamics Simulator code. The airflows in Destiny were modeled using the existing flow conditions and the module geometry included obstructions that simulate the currently installed hardware on orbit. The smoke source was modeled as a 0.152 by 0.152 m region that emitted smoke particulate ranging from 1.46 to 8.47 mg/s. In the module domain, the smoke source was placed in the center of each Destiny rack location and the model was run to determine the time required for the two smoke detectors to alarm. Overall the detection times were dominated by the circumferential flow, the axial flow from the intermodule ventilation and the smoke source strength.

Brooker, John E.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Recent Developments in Chemically Reactive Sensors for Propellants

Propellant system leaks can pose a significant hazard in aerospace operations. For example, a leak in the hydrazine supply system of the shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) has resulted in hydrazine ignition and fire in the aft compartment of the shuttle. Sensors indicating the location of a leak could provide valuable information required for operational decisions. WSTF has developed a small, single-use sensor for detection of propellant leaks. The sensor is composed of a thermistor bead coated with a substance which is chemically reactive with the propellant. The reactive thermistor is one of a pair of closely located thermistors, the other being a reference. On exposure to the propellant, the reactive coating responds exothermically to it and increases the temperature of the coated-thermistor by several degrees. The temperature rise is sensed by a resistive bridge circuit, and an alarm is registered by data acquisition software. The concept is general and has been applied to sensors for hydrazine, monomethylhydrazine, unsym-dimethylhydrazine, ammonia, hydrogen peroxide, ethanol, and dinitrogen tetroxide. Responses of these sensors to humidity, propellant concentration, distance from the liquid leak, and ambient pressure levels arc presented. A multi-use sensor has also been developed for hydrazine based on its catalytic reactivity with noble metals.

Davis, Dennis D.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Hydrazine Leak Sensor Based on Chemically Reactive Thermistors

Leaks in the hydrazine supply system of the Shuttle APU can result in hydrazine ignition and fire in the aft compartment of the Shuttle. Indication of the location of a leak could provide valuable information required for operational decisions. WSTF has developed a small, single use sensor for detection of hydrazine leaks. The sensor is composed of a thermistor bead coated with copper(II) oxide (CuO) dispersed in a clay or alumina binder. The CuO-coated thermistor is one of a pair of closely located thermistors, the other being a reference. On exposure to hydrazine the CuO reacts exothermically with the hydrazine and increases the temperature of the coated-thermistor by several degrees. The temperature rise is sensed by a resistive bridge circuit and an alarm registered by data acquisition software. Responses of this sensor to humidity changes, hydrazine concentration, binder characteristics, distance from a liquid leak, and ambient pressure levels as well as application of this sensor concept to other fluids are presented.

Davis, Dennis D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Leak detection in a subcritical boiler

Thermal power plants experience cycling duty leading to the fatigue of the boiler and heat exchanger tubes. As a result, tube failures occur frequently in coal fired fleets leading to forced outages. Furthermore, because the tube leaks have been the major source of unwanted shutdowns and the number of outages is increasing, present work focuses on the detection and isolation of the leak in a subcritical boiler based upon the process data from a commercial coalfired power plant. The mass balance equation around the steam drum was analyzed using timeseries data collected from a 300 MW power plant. The ratio of the feed water mass flow rate to the steam mass flow rate was defined as a key parameter for detecting leaks. The difference in slope between the feedwater and steam mass flow rate during the normal and faulty operations was established as the upper control limit for real time monitoring. To reduce false alarm rates that arise when raw signal is directly compared against the threshold due to common process fluctuations, an optimal filter was derived for smoothing. It was found that the optimal filter reacted much more quickly to process changes than an exponential moving average filter, around 8 h earlier on average. Occurrence of relatively high false alarm rates even in the filtered responses was related to the cycling of the boiler from the base load condition. Variable threshold was established to keep false alarm rates to the minimum while maintaining the leak detection rate. Finally, the leak was located at the economizer and this could readily be isolated by investigating the magnitude of the mass flow rates ratio and the temperature at the economizer outlet.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2004

Genesis failure investigation report : JPL Failure Review Board, Avionics Sub-Team

On January 7, 2001, the Genesis spacecraft lifted off from Cape Canaveral. Its mission was to collect solar wind samples and return those samples to Earth for detailed analysis by scientists. The mission proceeded successfully for three-and-a-half years. On September 8, 2004, the spacecraft approached Earth, pointed the Sample Return Capsule (SRC) at its entry target, and then fired pyros that jettisoned the SRC. The SRC carried the valuable samples collected over the prior 29 months. The SRC also contained the requisite hardware (mechanisms, parachutes, and electronics) to manage the process of entry, descent, and landing (EDL). After entering Earthas atmosphere, the SRC was expected to open a drogue parachute. This should have been followed by a pyro event to release the drogue chute, and then by a pyro event to deploy the main parachute at an approximate elevation of 6.7 kilometers. As the SRC descended to the Utah landing site, helicopters were in position to capture the SRC before the capsule touched down. On September 8, 2004, observers of the SRCas triumphant return became concerned as the NASA announcer fell silent, and then became even more alarmed as they watched the spacecraft tumble as it streaked across the sky. Long-distance cameras clearly showed that the drogue parachute had not deployed properly. On September 9, 2004, General Eugene Tattini, Deputy Director of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory formed a Failure Review Board (FRB). This board was charged with investigating the cause of the Genesis mishap in close concert with the NASA Mishap Investigation Board (MIB). The JPL-FRB was populated with experts from within and external to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The JPL-FRB participated with the NASA-MIB through all phases of the investigation, working jointly and concurrently as one team to discover the facts of the mishap.

solar wind↗
NASA NTRS2004

Genesis failure investigation report

On January 7, 2001, the Genesis spacecraft lifted off from Cape Canaveral. Its mission was to collect solar wind samples and return those samples to Earth for detailed analysis by scientists. The mission proceeded successfully for three-and-a-half years. On September 8, 2004, the spacecraft approached Earth, pointed the Sample Return Capsule (SRC) at its entry target, and then fired pyros that jettisoned the SRC. The SRC carried the valuable samples collected over the prior 29 months. The SRC also contained the requisite hardware (mechanisms, parachutes, and electronics) to manage the process of entry, descent, and landing (EDL). After entering Earth’s atmosphere, the SRC was expected to open a drogue parachute. This should have been followed by a pyro event to release the drogue chute, and then by a pyro event to deploy the main parachute at an approximate elevation of 6.7 kilometers. As the SRC descended to the Utah landing site, helicopters were in position to capture the SRC before the capsule touched down. On September 8, 2004, observers of the SRC’s triumphant return became concerned as the NASA announcer fell silent, and then became even more alarmed as they watched the spacecraft tumble as it streaked across the sky. Long-distance cameras clearly showed that the drogue parachute had not deployed properly.

UNKNOWN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scaling Up: Demonstrating Risk Reduction and Cost Compression for Commercial Heat Pump Water Heaters - CRADA 625 (Abstract)

Commercial heat pump water heater (CHPWH) systems significantly decarbonize the commercial and multifamily sectors by eliminating the reliance on gas-fired water heating. CHPWH systems are also well suited to include load shift controls that enable load-up and shed commands for supporting grid reliability and time-of-use pricing structure. However, they have not had wide adoption due to factors including price, complexity, and perceived risk. Although CHPWHs have been available in the US for decades, they have not made significant market gains in part because the systems have required significant and costly engineering design expertise and proved lackluster performance. Successful widespread market adoption requires a different approach; a shift from the current custom specialized expertise project design and installation to a repeatable approach that requires little specialized knowledge or expertise and can deliver persistent performance. Using this type of holistic systems approach requires effectively integrating four CHPWH system key components: primary air-to-water heat pumps; primary thermal storage tanks, a temperature maintenance system, and a control system which has capabilities to manage the primary heat pump cycles, any back-up, supplemental, or temperature maintenance heating, alarms, and grid connectivity allowing for demand response (DR), and/or load shifting. The project team has developed and will implement a suite of tools to support faster, less expensive, and more reliable field installations of CHPWH technology and with the resulting data used to further improve the tool set. These tools include: (1) A tool for optimizing system size and costs. (2) A tool that predicts annual energy use and overall system efficiency. (3) The Advanced Water Heater Specification (AWHS 8.0) defining the components of a full CHPWH system addressing performance requirements by climate zone. (4) The Qualified Products List: (QPL) of approved products that meet the specifications requirements. (5) Training materials including online on-demand modules, instructor-led training, and virtual interactive video tours of CHPWH installations in multifamily buildings. Demonstration site identification in low-income buildings in underserved communities is currently underway. Preliminarily, the team anticipates having three demonstrations in the Pacific Northwest and three in the Northeast for a total of six sites. After the demonstration sites are finalized, and M&V instrumentation installations are complete, the team will gather performance data and confirm whether the CHPWH systems perform as predicted and use the data to improve the existing tools.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2010

World, We Have Problems: Simulation for Large Complex, Risky Projects, and Events

Prior to a spacewalk during the NASA STS/129 mission in November 2009, Columbia Broadcasting System (CBS) correspondent William Harwood reported astronauts, "were awakened again", as they had been the day previously. Fearing something not properly connected was causing a leak, the crew, both on the ground and in space, stopped and checked everything. The alarm proved false. The crew did complete its work ahead of schedule, but the incident reminds us that correctly connecting hundreds and thousands of entities, subsystems and systems, finding leaks, loosening stuck valves, and adding replacements to very large complex systems over time does not occur magically. Everywhere major projects present similar pressures. Lives are at - risk. Responsibility is heavy. Large natural and human-created disasters introduce parallel difficulties as people work across boundaries their countries, disciplines, languages, and cultures with known immediate dangers as well as the unexpected. NASA has long accepted that when humans have to go where humans cannot go that simulation is the sole solution. The Agency uses simulation to achieve consensus, reduce ambiguity and uncertainty, understand problems, make decisions, support design, do planning and troubleshooting, as well as for operations, training, testing, and evaluation. Simulation is at the heart of all such complex systems, products, projects, programs, and events. Difficult, hazardous short and, especially, long-term activities have a persistent need for simulation from the first insight into a possibly workable idea or answer until the final report perhaps beyond our lifetime is put in the archive. With simulation we create a common mental model, try-out breakdowns of machinery or teamwork, and find opportunity for improvement. Lifecycle simulation proves to be increasingly important as risks and consequences intensify. Across the world, disasters are increasing. We anticipate more of them, as the results of global warming prove more and more ominous-glaciers melting in Bolivia, floods in Saudi Arabia, the Maldives sinking and salt rising along the Nile. Fear grows about potential asteroid crashes and nightly television images raise awareness of victims of floods, hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons, fire, tornado, tsunami, bombings, landslides, and cross-boundary criminality. The Red Cross says that disasters impact 250 million people each year. That means that 700,000 people are having a very bad day today. Modeling and simulation is and must be part of the solution.

Elfrey, Priscilla↗