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NASA NTRS2018

Fe(3): An Evaluation Tool for Low-Altitude Air Traffic Operations

The concepts of unmanned aircraft system traffic management (UTM) and urban air mobility (UAM) are introducing high-density operations in low altitude airspace in closer proximity to populated areas than conventional high-altitude air traffic. The Flexible engine for Fast-time Evaluation of Flight Environments (Fe (sup 3)) provides the capability of statistically analyzing the high-density, high-fidelity, and low-altitude traffic system under numerous scenarios, such that stake holders can study impacts of factors in the low-altitude high-density traffic system and define requirements, policies, and protocols needed to support a safe yet efficient traffic system, and even assess operational risks and optimize flight schedules without conducting infeasible and cost-prohibitive flight tests that involve a large volume of aerial vehicles. This work provides an introduction to this simulation tool including its architecture and various models involved. Its performance and sample application in UAM and UTM are also presented.

Collision Avoidance↗

NASA NTRS2018

Fe3: An Evaluation Tool for Low-Altitude Air Traffic Operations

Trajectory Modeling↗

NASA NTRS1977

Annual report to the NASA Administrator by the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel on the space shuttle program. Part 1: Observations and conclusions

The panel reviewed the following areas of major significance for the Approach and Landing Test program: mission planning and crew training, flight-readiness of the Carrier Aircraft and the Orbiter, including its flight control and avionics system, facilities, and communications and ground support equipment. The management system for risk assessment was investigated. The Orbital Flight Test Program was also reviewed. Observations and recommendations are presented.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2016

Acute Effects of Simulated Space Radiation and Micro-Gravity on Cancellous Bone Loss in Mice Tibiae

Space radiation and micro-gravity are the two major obstacles impeding human exploration of Mars and beyond. Long-duration space flights expose astronauts to high doses of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation as well as prolonged periods of skeletal disuse due to weightlessness. One important consequence of both radiation exposure and micro-gravity is acute bone loss. However, biological responses to different radiation types and combined radiation and micro-gravity environments remain unknown. Thus, the purpose of this study is to compare the acute effects of different radiation species and simulated weightlessness on bone degeneration for the purpose of developing accurate risk assessments of prolonged space flight. Mouse models were used to simulate space flight-relevant doses of different radiation types as well as weightlessness via hind-limb unloading. Three groups of mice (n 9) were irradiated with 1 Gy (Gray) H+, 1 Gy 56Fe, and 1 Gy combined H+ and 56Fe (dual ion) respectively and compared to sham irradiated (n 9) and 2 Gy 56Fe irradiated positive controls (n 6). Two groups of mice (n 9) were hind-limb unloaded for three days and then either sham irradiated or dual ion irradiated respectively, followed by subsequent hind-limb unloading for 11 days. Cancellous tissue from tibiae metaphyses were harvested 11 days post-irradiation for ex vivo micro-computed tomography analysis. Microarchitecture parameters including bone volume to total volume ratio (BVTV), trabecular thickness (Tb.Th), trabecular number (Tb.N), trabecular spacing (Tb.S), and connectivity density (Conn.D) will be quantified using a novel automated segmentation procedure developed in our lab. The anticipated results will be instrumental in developing counter-measures against micro-gravity and radiation-induced bone loss. Moreover, possible synergistic effects may provide insight into underlying mechanisms mediating biological response.

Micro-Gravity↗

NASA NTRS2007

Validation of Procedures for Monitoring Crewmember Immune Function SDBI-1900, SMO-015 - Integrated Immune

There is ample evidence to suggest that space flight leads to immune system dysregulation. This may be a result of microgravity, confinement, physiological stress, radiation, environment or other mission-associated factors. The clinical risk from prolonged immune dysregulation during space flight are not yet determined, but may include increased incidence of infection, allergy, hypersensitivity, hematological malignancy or altered wound healing. Each of the clinical events resulting from immune dysfunction has the potential to impact mission critical objectives during exploration-class missions. To date, precious little in-flight immune data has been generated to assess this phenomenon. The majority of recent flight immune studies have been post-flight assessments, which may not accurately reflect the in-flight condition. There are no procedures currently in place to monitor immune function or its effect on crew health. The objective of this Supplemental Medical Objective (SMO) is to develop and validate an immune monitoring strategy consistent with operational flight requirements and constraints. This SMO will assess the clinical risks resulting from the adverse effects of space flight on the human immune system and will validate a flight-compatible immune monitoring strategy. Characterization of the clinical risk and the development of a monitoring strategy are necessary prerequisite activities prior to validating countermeasures. This study will determine, to the best level allowed by current technology, the in-flight status of crewmembers immune system. Pre-flight, in-flight and post-flight assessments of immune status, immune function, viral reactivation and physiological stress will be performed. The in-flight samples will allow a distinction between legitimate in-flight alterations and the physiological stresses of landing and readaptation which are believed to alter landing day assessments. The overall status of the immune system during flight (activation, deficiency, dysregulation) and the response of the immune system to specific latent virus reactivation (known to occur during space flight) will be thoroughly assessed. Following completion of the SMO the data will be evaluated to determine the optimal set of assays for routine monitoring of crewmember immune system function, should the clinical risk warrant such monitoring.

Crucian, Brian↗

NASA NTRS2009

Microbial Risk Assessment

Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose-response characteristics may be affected by a potentially dysfunctional crew immune system during a mission. In addition, microbial virulence has been shown to change under certain conditions during spaceflight, further complicating dose-response characterization. An initial study of the applicability of microbial risk assessment techniques was performed using Crew Health Care System (CHeCS) operational data from the International Space Station potable water systems. The risk of infection from potable water was selected as the flight systems and microbial ecology are well defined. This initial study confirmed the feasibility of using microbial risk assessment modeling for spaceflight systems. While no immediate threat was detected, the study identified several medically significant microorganisms that could pose a health risk if uncontrolled. The study also identified several specific knowledge gaps in making a risk assessment and noted that filling these knowledge gaps is essential as the risk estimates may change by orders of magnitude depending on the answers. The current phase of the microbial risk assessment studies focuses on the dose-response relationship of specific infectious agents, focusing on Salmonella enterica Typhimurium, Pseudomonas spp., and Escherichia coli, as their evaluation will provide a better baseline for determining the overall hazard characterization. The organisms were chosen as they either have been isolated on spacecraft or have an identified route of infection during a mission. The characterization will utilize dose-response models selected either from the peer-reviewed literature and/or by using statistical approaches. Development of these modeling and risk assessment techniques will help to optimize flight requirements and to protect the safety, health, and performance of the crew.

Ott, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions

Projecting cancer risks from exposure to space radiation is highly uncertain because of the absence of data for humans and because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating late effects from the high-energy and charge (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Cancer risk projections involve many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to the lack of data and knowledge. We discuss an uncertainty assessment within the linear-additivity model using the approach of Monte Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. Calculations are performed using the space radiation environment and transport codes for several Mars mission scenarios. This approach leads to estimates of the uncertainties in cancer risk projections of 400-600% for a Mars mission. The uncertainties in the quality factors are dominant. Using safety standards developed for low-Earth orbit, long-term space missions (>90 days) outside the Earth's magnetic field are currently unacceptable if the confidence levels in risk projections are considered. Because GCR exposures involve multiple particle or delta-ray tracks per cellular array, our results suggest that the shape of the dose response at low dose rates may be an additional uncertainty for estimating space radiation risks.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS2011

Ares I-X Separation and Reentry Trajectory Analyses

The Ares I-X Flight Test Vehicle was launched on October 28, 2009 and was the first and only test flight of NASA s two-stage Ares I launch vehicle design. The launch was successful and the flight test met all of its primary and secondary objectives. This paper discusses the stage separation and reentry trajectory analysis that was performed in support of the Ares I-X test flight. Pre-flight analyses were conducted to assess the risk of stage recontact during separation, to evaluate the first stage flight dynamics during reentry, and to define the range safety impact ellipses of both stages. The results of these pre-flight analyses were compared with available flight data. On-board video taken during flight showed that the flight test vehicle successfully separated without any recontact. Reconstructed trajectory data also showed that first stage flight dynamics were well characterized by pre-flight Monte Carlo results. In addition, comparisons with flight data indicated that the complex interference aerodynamic models employed in the reentry simulation were effective in capturing the flight dynamics during separation. Finally, the splash-down locations of both stages were well within predicted impact ellipses.

Tartabini, Paul V.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Decision Support Systems for Launch and Range Operations Using Jess

The virtual test bed for launch and range operations developed at NASA Ames Research Center consists of various independent expert systems advising on weather effects, toxic gas dispersions and human health risk assessment during space-flight operations. An individual dedicated server supports each expert system and the master system gather information from the dedicated servers to support the launch decision-making process. Since the test bed is based on the web system, reducing network traffic and optimizing the knowledge base is critical to its success of real-time or near real-time operations. Jess, a fast rule engine and powerful scripting environment developed at Sandia National Laboratory has been adopted to build the expert systems providing robustness and scalability. Jess also supports XML representation of knowledge base with forward and backward chaining inference mechanism. Facts added - to working memory during run-time operations facilitates analyses of multiple scenarios. Knowledge base can be distributed with one inference engine performing the inference process. This paper discusses details of the knowledge base and inference engine using Jess for a launch and range virtual test bed.

Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar↗

NASA NTRS2011

Shuttle Risk Progression by Flight

Understanding the early mission risk and progression of risk as a vehicle gains insights through flight is important: . a) To the Shuttle Program to understand the impact of re-designs and operational changes on risk. . b) To new programs to understand reliability growth and first flight risk. . Estimation of Shuttle Risk Progression by flight: . a) Uses Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) and current knowledge to calculate early vehicle risk. . b) Shows impact of major Shuttle upgrades. . c) Can be used to understand first flight risk for new programs.

Hamlin, Teri↗

NASA NTRS2011

Assessing the Likelihood of Rare Medical Events in Astronauts

Despite over half a century of manned space flight, the space flight community is only now coming to fully assess the short and long term medical dangers of exposure to reduced gravity environments. Further, as new manned spacecraft are designed and with the advent of commercial flight capabilities to the general public, a full understanding of medical risk becomes even more critical for maintaining and understanding mission safety and crew health. To address these critical issues, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Human Research Program (HRP) has begun to address the medical hazards with a formalized risk management approach by effectively identifying and attempting to mitigate acute and chronic medical risks to manned space flight. This paper describes NASA Glenn Research Center?s (GRC) efforts to develop a systematic methodology to assess the likelihood of in-flight medical conditions. Using a probabilistic approach, medical risks are assessed using well established and accepted biomedical and human performance models in combination with fundamentally observed data that defines the astronauts? physical conditions, environment and activity levels. Two different examples of space flight risk are used to show the versatility of our approach and how it successfully integrates disparate information to provide HRP decision makers with a valuable source of information which is otherwise lacking.

Myers, Jerry G., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation, volume 1

This document is the Executive Summary of a technical report on a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the Space Shuttle vehicle performed under the sponsorship of the Office of Space Flight of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration. It briefly summarizes the methodology and results of the Shuttle PRA. The primary objective of this project was to support management and engineering decision-making with respect to the Shuttle program by producing (1) a quantitative probabilistic risk model of the Space Shuttle during flight, (2) a quantitative assessment of in-flight safety risk, (3) an identification and prioritization of the design and operations that principally contribute to in-flight safety risk, and (4) a mechanism for risk-based evaluation proposed modifications to the Shuttle System. Secondary objectives were to provide a vehicle for introducing and transferring PRA technology to the NASA community, and to demonstrate the value of PRA by applying it beneficially to a real program of great international importance.

Fragola, Joseph R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The NASA JSC Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) Office

The Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) office at the National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC) is dedicated to support NASA flight programs in meeting their meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) protection requirements both efficiently and effectively, with a minimum of shielding mass, volume, and cost. This paper provides an overview of HVIT capabilities in providing hypervelocity tests, analyses, MMOD risk assessments and shielding expertise. HVIT personnel work closely with NASA program and safety/mission assurance personnel to develop program-specific MMOD protection requirements which are both achievable based on initial risk assessments and will meet overall safety and mission success requirements. HVIT then proceeds with hypervelocity impact testing and hydrocode assessments to update and verify ballistic limit equations used in the MMOD risk assessment. Hypervelocity impact tests are primarily performed at the NASA WSTF Remote Hypervelocity Test Laboratory (RHTL). Other hypervelocity facilities that provide complementary test capabilities are called on when necessary to fill data gaps. The goal of the final pre-flight MMOD risk assessment is to show compliance with MMOD requirements prior to flight. This final assessment will also incorporate changes in the MMOD environment from meteoroid showers and orbital debris breakups. After the mission is flown, post-flight inspections are performed by HVIT to document and trend MMOD damage to returned spacecraft surfaces and hardware. HVIT accomplishments in NASA mission support are described. In addition, current HVIT activities to aid on-going NASA crewed missions and science missions are presented.

Meteoroid↗

NASA NTRS2011

Shuttle Propulsion System Major Events and the Final 22 Flights

Numerous lessons have been documented from the Space Shuttle Propulsion elements. Major events include loss of the Solid Rocket Boosters (SRB's) on STS-4 and shutdown of a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) during ascent on STS-51F. On STS-112 only half the pyrotechnics fired during release of the vehicle from the launch pad, a testament for redundancy. STS-91 exhibited freezing of a main combustion chamber pressure measurement and on STS-93 nozzle tube ruptures necessitated a low liquid level oxygen cut off of the main engines. A number of on pad aborts were experienced during the early program resulting in delays. And the two accidents, STS-51L and STS-107, had unique heritage in history from early program decisions and vehicle configuration. Following STS-51L significant resources were invested in developing fundamental physical understanding of solid rocket motor environments and material system behavior. And following STS-107, the risk of ascent debris was better characterized and controlled. Situational awareness during all mission phases improved, and the management team instituted effective risk assessment practices. The last 22 flights of the Space Shuttle, following the Columbia accident, were characterized by remarkable improvement in safety and reliability. Numerous problems were solved in addition to reduction of the ascent debris hazard. The Shuttle system, though not as operable as envisioned in the 1970's, successfully assembled the International Space Station (ISS). By the end of the program, the remarkable Space Shuttle Propulsion system achieved very high performance, was largely reusable, exhibited high reliability, and was a heavy lift earth to orbit propulsion system. During the program a number of project management and engineering processes were implemented and improved. Technical performance, schedule accountability, cost control, and risk management were effectively managed and implemented. Award fee contracting was implemented to provide performance incentives. The Certification of Flight Readiness and Mission Management processes became very effective. A key to the success of the propulsion element projects was related to relationships between the MSFC project office and support organizations with their counterpart contractor organizations. The teams worked diligently to understand and satisfy requirements and achieve mission success.

Owen, James W.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Assurance of Fault Management: Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness

Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of criticality within flight software, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance for NASA projects, especially as spaceflight systems continue to increase in complexity. Insight into specific characteristics of FM architectures seen embedded within safety- and mission-critical software systems analyzed by the NASA Independent Verification Validation (IVV) Program has been enhanced with an FM Technical Reference (TR) suite. Benefits are aimed beyond the IVV community to those that seek ways to efficiently and effectively provide software assurance to reduce the FM risk posture of NASA and other space missions. The identification of particular FM architectures, visibility, and associated IVV techniques provides a TR suite that enables greater assurance that critical software systems will adequately protect against faults and respond to adverse conditions. The role FM has with regard to overall asset protection of flight software systems is being addressed with the development of an adverse condition (AC) database encompassing flight software vulnerabilities.Identification of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine how a system responds to these conditions are important aspects of hazard analysis and fault management. Understanding what ACs the mission may face, and ensuring they are prevented or addressed is the responsibility of the assurance team, which necessarily should have insight into ACs beyond those defined by the project itself. Research efforts sponsored by NASAs Office of Safety and Mission Assurance defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs, and allowing queries based on project, mission type, domain component, causal fault, and other key characteristics. The repository has a firm structure, initial collection of data, and an interface established for informational queries, with plans for integration within the Enterprise Architecture at NASA IVV, enabling support and accessibility across the Agency. The development of an improved workflow process for adaptive, risk-informed FM assurance is currently underway.

Software Verification & Validation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Web-Based Negotiation Tool for Conflict Resolution in Upper Class E Traffic Management

In Upper Class E airspace 60,000 feet (or Flight level / FL600), vehicles such as High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) balloons and slow fixed-wing gliders have diverse vehicle characteristics and limited maneuverability. Due to these unique characteristics of high-altitude operations, a new type of strategic negotiation-based conflict resolution method has been proposed to avoid potential conflict between vehicles in Upper Class E airspace, well in advance of the conflict point and with ample time for bilateral negotiation. This paper introduces the first real-time web-based negotiation tool for high-altitude operations. To facilitate negotiation, this tool incorporates a bilateral negotiation model with an algorithm to assess conflict risks and generate new flight trajectories with a given flight path deviation. This tool allows users to make decisions during negotiation manually and automatically while enforcing the needed constraints for negotiation to be successful. Operators can make decisions at every step while they interact with each other on separate devices. To conduct sensitivity analysis, a mechanism that automates human inputs to the user interface is also developed for this web-based negotiation tool, such that fast-time simulations can be constructed and used to explore various scenarios to gain insights into this web-based negotiation model. Using this tool, a study was conducted to evaluate the impact of different negotiation strategies, vehicle types, vehicle crossing angles, and operator response times during the negotiations on metrics such as total negotiation completion time, number of negotiation rounds, and extra flight distance to avoid the conflict due to negotiation, compared to ones without negotiation. The results suggest that operators benefit from using negotiated flight paths with quick response times, across various crossing angles and vehicle types. Various Negotiation Strategies are investigated to simulate the behaviors associated with different types of negotiations. The findings demonstrate that, in comparison to the conventional method where a single operator assumes full responsibility, negotiation-based strategic deconfliction reduces the total extra flight distance by an average of 24% - 27%. On an individual basis, each operator may be able to save an average of 65% of their extra flight distance.

Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM)↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Discussion of the Failure of a Quad Diode Module and Efforts to Assure the Flight Spares

In 2019 the International Space Station (ISS) experienced an on on-orbit failure that affected 1 of 28 Battery Charge Discharge Units (BCDUs). Telemetry pointed to a short circuit failure of a Power Rectifier Quad Diode Module. Astronauts removed the failed unit from service which was then returned to Earth for failure analysis. The failure analysis confirmed that the quad diode module had failed short circuit. The investigation identified silver dendrites had grown on the insulated, sloped edge of the mesa semiconductor die of the failed diode and also a 2nd diode in the same quad diode module. Voids between the diode’s protective encapsulating ring and the die provided space within which dendrites were able to form and cause catastrophic failure. The NASA Engineering & Safety Center (NESC) convened a EEE Parts Sub-Team to investigate root cause and to assist with risk assessment for all of the flight diode modules (4 distinct production lots) and the flight spares (from a 5th lot). Analysis of the original diode manufacturer’s read and record screening test data identified some lots which contained diodes with parametric instabilities that could signal conditions suited for silver dendrite formation. Computed Tomography (CT) X-ray screening inspection was performed on flight spare modules to identify diodes that do not exhibit voids between the edge of die and encapsulating ring as a mitigation against dendrite formation.

Jay Brusse↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Government Personnel Participation in Suborbital Space Flight

In 2020, NASA issued a Request for Information (RFI) from potential sources for Suborbital Crew (SubC) space transportation services. NASA recognizes the advancement of the commercial suborbital space flight industry and is currently working to develop suborbital transportation for Government personnel that could fly on commercially available suborbital vehicles and determine a systems qualification approach for flight risk acceptance. Prior examples of risk assessment such as the purchase of Soyuz missions serve as a foundation for how the US Government’s best technical experts can partner with a successfully flying industry provider to understand risks. More recently, NASA, the FAA, and industry have successfully demonstrated that a company-owned operation with government oversight can successfully launch Government Astronauts safely. This paper explores the challenges and opportunities presented with the use of suborbital vehicles by Government personnel and how industry might leverage the Government’s efforts to maximize the success of the suborbital space industry.

Risk Management↗