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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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71 records · Page 4
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DOE OSTI2025

The influence of wind veer and drivetrain flexibility on fatigue loading for large floating wind turbines

To reduce costs, offshore wind turbines are expected to be designed with significantly increased rotor diameters. Larger turbines become more flexible and span a larger portion of the atmospheric boundary layer. With these changes, the validity of traditional modeling assumptions should be investigated. This work challenges two common assumptions: (1) that the drivetrain can be considered rigid (except in torsion) and does not couple with the rotor and tower and 2) that wind directional change with height (veer) does not greatly influence the fatigue damage in the tower, blades and drivetrain. Two large semi-submersible floating wind turbines are considered: a 15 and a 22 MW reference turbine. Both use direct-drive generators. Aero-hydro-servo-elastic simulations are performed using OpenFAST, with drivetrain bending flexibility and main bearing response implemented in the coupled analysis. The turbines are subjected to a set of load cases at below-, near- and above-rated mean wind speeds, assembled based on the 3 km Norwegian reanalysis (NORA3) hourly wind and wave hindcast data for Utsira Nord, off the coast of Norway. In each load case, conditions with and without veer are simulated to evaluate the influence of veer on damage equivalent loads (DELs) of the turbine tower, blades and main bearings. Further, these load cases are applied to evaluate the influence of drivetrain flexibility on aero-elastic turbine response. The results indicate that, depending on the veer gradient, mean wind speed, operating regime and turbine size, veer can be very important for tower-top DELs and the fluctuations of main bearing radial loads, while main bearing and blade-root flapwise DELs are less affected. Considering these specific load cases and turbine models, drivetrain flexibility is found to significantly influence tower-top DELs of the largest turbine: the tower-top fore-aft and torsional damage equivalent moments of the 22 MW turbine are reduced by more than 20 % at near-rated wind speeds when the drivetrain is modeled as flexible.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low-Flow Marine Hydrokinetic Turbine for Small Autonomous Unmanned Mobile Recharge Stations

A prototype low-flow marine current turbine for deployment from a small unmanned mobile floating platform has been developed for autonomously seeking and harnessing tidal/coastal currents. The support platform is an unmanned surface vehicle (USV), in the form of a catamaran with two electric outboard motors and with capabilities for autonomous navigation. The USV utilized is a WAM-V 16 vehicle that has been developed separately with support from the Office of Naval Research (ONR) [1]. The marine current turbine is based on a freestream waterwheel (FSWW), also known as an undershot waterwheel (FSWW), mounted on the stern of the USV. The concept of operation involves the USV autonomously navigating to a designated marine current resource. Upon arrival, the USV anchors itself, aligns with the current, and deploys the FSWW turbine using a custom cable-lift mechanism. The turbine harnesses the local current, and an onboard power-take-off (PTO) device converts the mechanical energy into electricity, which is stored in an onboard battery bank. When energy harvesting is completed, the turbine and the anchor are retrieved and the USV navigates to a selected location. These unmanned at-sea platforms can provide power to other unmanned maritime systems. Specifically, in this project, the power generated onboard can be used to charge aerial drones via a custom flight deck that has been developed for the USV. The recharging capabilities offered by a fleet of such strategically placed recharging stations can significantly benefit aerial drones operating in the maritime domain by eliminating the need to travel back and forth to land or ship based charging stations. The project has resulted in the development of subcomponents, including the FSWW turbine, a novel PTO, an automated anchoring system for the USV, an automated turbine deployment system, and a flight deck with capabilities onboard the USV for landing, direct-contact charging and takeoff of aerial drones. The design and development of these subsystems have culminated in the overall prototype marine hydrokinetic platform (MHK Platform, Fig. 1). Comprehensive lab and field testing have been conducted to validate the functionality and performance of the platform and its components. The project demonstrates the potential for autonomous, unmanned systems to harness renewable energy from marine currents, and provide sustainable power solutions for maritime applications such as coastal surveillance and environmental monitoring; shoreline mapping; search and rescue; oceanographic research; inspection and maintenance of offshore energy installations like wind turbines and oil rigs; oil spill response; maritime disaster response; and aerial surveys, as well as facilitation of data transfer drones and shore stations.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Flexible Quasi-Static Mooring Design Optimization Method for Floating Structures

This paper presents a flexible and efficient design method for optimizing the mooring systems of floating structures. Mooring system optimization is challenging because of the strong nonlinearity of mooring system behavior and the many technical constraints that must be satisfied. Furthermore, different mooring configurations can have very different design spaces. While some successful examples of mooring design optimization exist in the literature, developing an optimization approach that can work across various mooring design problems is a larger challenge. We present such a method based on a flexible parameterization that allows a wide variety of mooring designs to be described by a list of variables, a quasi-static mooring model that provides efficient evaluation of a mooring design without directly considering mooring system dynamics, and an optimization framework that generates, evaluates, and adjusts the mooring design while considering user-specified constraints such as offset limits, strength safety factors, and seabed contact limits. We demonstrate the design optimization framework on four mooring design problems, each for a different type of mooring system. We compare the use of different design modes to simplify the optimization problem, showing that they can reduce the computation time by up to 75%. We also compare different optimization algorithms and find that the resulting computational speed can vary by up to 51 times. We perform a sensitivity study on one design and find that the local sensitivity of anchoring radius to water depth has a positive correlation of 0.29, but the global sensitivity shows large nonlinearities. Lastly, we perform a coupled dynamic analysis on one of the optimized designs and find that the predicted mean platform motions and mooring line tensions are within 1% of dynamic results and the extreme motions and tensions are within 14%. Lastly, we show that a DEA-Chain-Polyester mooring configuration is cost-optimal for the given design problem of the demonstrations, which aligns with general industry practice.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis and characterization of the novel breathing pyrochlore compound Ba 3 ⁢Tm 2⁢ Zn 5⁢ O 11

In this study, a novel material from the rare-earth based breathing pyrochlore family, Ba 3 ⁢Tm 2 ⁢Zn 5 ⁢O 11 , was successfully synthesized. Powder x-ray diffraction and high-resolution powder neutron diffraction confirmed phase purity and the $F\bar4$3⁢𝑚 breathing pyrochlore crystal structure, while thermogravimetric analysis revealed incongruent melting behavior compared to its counterpart, Ba 3 ⁢Yb 2⁢ Zn 5⁢ O 11 . High-quality single crystals of Ba 3 ⁢Tm 2 ⁢Zn 5 ⁢O 11 were grown using the traveling solvent floating zone technique and assessed using Laue x-ray diffraction and single crystal x-ray diffraction. Further, thermodynamic characterization indicated paramagnetic behavior down to 0.05 K, and inelastic neutron scattering measurements identified distinct dispersionless crystal electric field energy bands, with the fitted crystal electric field model predicting a single-ion singlet ground state and an energy gap of ∼9 meV separating it from the first excited (singlet) state. Additional low-energy excitation studies on single crystals revealed dispersionless bands at 0.8 and 1 meV. Computed phonon dispersions from first-principles calculations ruled out phonons as the origin of these modes, further illustrating the puzzling and unique properties of Ba 3 ⁢Tm⁢ 2 Zn 5 ⁢O 11 .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Floating Photovoltaics in Hydropower Reservoirs in the United States

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of the feasibility of floating photovoltaics (FPV) in federally regulated reservoirs within the continental United States (CONUS) and to present a methodology for capturing the true costs of deployment, potential environmental impacts, and regulatory pathways for open-loop hydropower reservoirs. It is intended for stakeholders who may not be solar industry experts but who are interested in exploring the potential for FPV in their reservoirs. While there are promising opportunities, particularly in enhancing dissolved oxygen (DO) levels and potentially improving compliance with existing hydropower licenses, the current capital costs of FPV are not yet competitive with traditional land-based solar installations at the utility-scale when comparing the LCOE results. A competitive financial outlook is achievable when applying a 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and considering a 5% reduction from the baseline capital expenditures (CapEx) at the Tuckertown Reservoir in North Carolina case study. The study is structured around three key pillars of research: technical potential, environmental impacts and regulatory considerations, and technoeconomic analysis. This report provides a nationwide assessment of the opportunities for FPV in terms of capacity, measured in direct current megawatts (MWDC), in reservoirs managed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Additionally, the report introduces a heuristic model for estimating the CapEx of utility-scale FPV projects (1–100 MW), offering a baseline cost estimate for stakeholders. Finally, the report applies these models to a case study of a hydropower reservoir in North Carolina to present site-specific results.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the Effect of Sample Geometry on Temperature Distribution during Optical Floating Zone Crystal Growth in Vacuum Environment through Heat Transfer Modeling

Optical floating zone furnaces (OFZ) have had a transformative impact on fundamental science due to their ability to rapidly produce large single crystals of a wide variety of complex materials. However, a quantitative understanding of the OFZ growth environment is generally lacking due to the difficulty of measuring the local sample temperatures during OFZ growth, as well as to the general lack of information about the temperature-dependent physical parameters needed to model heat transfer. To overcome these challenges, we apply a physics-based heat transfer model, parametrized by measurements from synchrotron experiments and a machine-learning (ML) algorithm, to simulate the temperature distributions of samples heated in an OFZ furnace in a vacuum environment. This model is used to quantitatively understand how the sample maximum temperature and temperature gradient (key parameters that influence the success of crystal growth) are affected by the rod size, rod shape, and heat-zone position on the rod. The results of this study can be applied to make informed decisions on how crystal growth parameters can be tuned to modify temperature profiles and to optimize crystal growth outcomes even when data on internal sample temperature profiles (e.g., those obtained through in situ synchrotron experiments) are not accessible.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of floating-point non-associativity on reproducibility for HPC and deep learning applications

Run to run variability in parallel programs caused by floating-point non-associativity has been known to significantly affect reproducibility in iterative algorithms, due to accumulating errors. Non-reproducibility can critically affect the efficiency and effectiveness of correctness testing for stochastic programs. Recently, the sensitivity of deep learning training and inference pipelines to floating-point non-associativity has been found to sometimes be extreme. It can prevent certification for commercial applications, accurate assessment of robustness and sensitivity, and bug detection. New approaches in scientific computing applications have coupled deep learning models with high-performance computing, leading to an aggravation of debugging and testing challenges. Here we perform an investigation of the statistical properties of floating-point non-associativity within modern parallel programming models, and analyze performance and productivity impacts of replacing atomic operations with deterministic alternatives on GPUs. We examine the recently-added deterministic options in PyTorch within the context of GPU deployment for deep learning, uncovering and quantifying the impacts of input parameters triggering run to run variability and reporting on the reliability and completeness of the documentation. Finally, we evaluate the strategy of exploiting automatic determinism that could be provided by deterministic hardware, using the Groq LPUTM accelerator for inference portions of the deep learning pipeline. We demonstrate the benefits that a hardware-based strategy can provide within reproducibility and correctness efforts.

Shanmugavelu, Sanjif↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Laboratory and Field Arrays (ALFA)/Lab Collaboration Project (LCP) for Marine Energy (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The objective of the Advanced Laboratory and Field Arrays (ALFA) project was to reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of Marine and Hydrokinetic (MHK) energy by leveraging research, development, and testing capabilities at Oregon State University, University of Washington, and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. ALFA is a project within the Pacific Marine Energy Center (PMEC; formerly NNMREC), a multi-institution entity with a diverse funding base that focuses on research and development for marine renewables. The ALFA project aimed to accelerate the development of next-generation arrays of wave energy conversion (WEC) and tidal energy conversion (TEC) devices through a suite of field-focused R&D activities spanning a broad range of strategic opportunity areas identified in the Funding Opportunity Announcement: • Device and/or array operation and maintenance (O&M) logistics development; • High-fidelity resource characterization and/or modeling technique development and validation; • Array-specific component technology development (e.g. moorings and foundations, transmission, and other offshore grid components); • Array performance testing and evaluation; and • Novel cost-effective environmental monitoring techniques and instrumentation testing and evaluation. The objective of the Lab Collaboration Project (LCP) was to accelerate the development of next-generation marine energy conversion systems. The LCP aimed to achieve these project objectives in collaboration with the national laboratories by: • Developing concept generation and assessment tools; • Improving access to existing testing resources; • Validating collision risk models between fish and turbines; and • Advancing analysis and simulation capabilities for wave-WEC interactions and PTO analysis in nonlinear ocean waves. The ALFA portion of the project was comprised of six overarching technical tasks: • Task 1: Debris Modeling, Detection and Mitigation; • Task 2: Autonomous Monitoring & Intervention; • Task 3: Resource Characterization for Extreme Conditions; • Task 4: Robust Models for Design of Offshore Anchoring and Mooring Systems; • Task 5: Performance Enhancement for Marine Energy Converter (MEC) Arrays; and • Task 6: Evaluating Sampling Techniques for MHK Biological Monitoring. The LCP was divided into four overarching technical tasks: • Task 7: Project Management and Reporting • Task 8: Novel Design and Assessment Methodologies for Wave Energy Converter Design (Wave- SPARC) • Task 9: Testing Access for Commercial Marine Renewable Energy Technology Developers • Task 10: Quantifying Collision Risk for Fish and Turbines • Task 11: Nonlinear Ocean Waves and PTO Control Strategy Each ALFA/LCP task listed above functioned as a separate and discreet project. A final Technical Report was written for each individual task and these reports were uploaded to OSTI, after receiving DOE approval. The following document is a compilation of each of these final, approved reports arranged as individual chapters.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implementation of McMurchie–Davidson Algorithm for Gaussian AO Integrals Suited for SIMD Processors

We report an implementation of the McMurchie− Davidson evaluation scheme for 1- and 2-particle Gaussian AO integrals designed for processors with Single Instruction Multiple Data (SIMD) instruction sets. Like in our recent MD implementation for graphical processing units (GPUs) [Asadchev, A.; Valeev, E. F.. J. Chem. Phys. 2024, 160, 244109.], variable-sized batches of shellsets of integrals are evaluated at a time. By optimizing for the floating point instruction throughput rather than minimizing the number of operations, this approach achieves up to 50% of the theoretical hardware peak FP64 performance for many common SIMD-equipped platforms (AVX2, AVX512, NEON), which translates to speedups of up to 30 over the state-of-the-art one-shellset-at-a-time implementation of Obara−Saika-type schemes in Libint for a variety of primitive and contracted integrals. As with our previous work, we rely on the standard C++ programming language such as the std::simd standard library feature to be included in the 2026 ISO C++ standard without any explicit code generation to keep the code base small and portable. The implementation is part of the open source LibintX library freely available at https://github.com/ValeevGroup/libintx.

Basis sets↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Imprint of Southern Ocean Storms on Modeled Surface Chlorophyll, Their Drivers and Satellite Biases

Southern Ocean (SO) phytoplankton chlorophyll is highly variable on sub-seasonal time scales. Although the SO is the windiest ocean basin globally, it is not conclusively understood how storms impact SO phytoplankton dynamics. Much of our existing knowledge stems from satellites, but biases due to data gaps from cloud cover and low solar angles remain unquantified. Here, we use ocean–sea-ice simulations with the Community Earth System Model to quantify the climatological 1997–2018 imprint of storms on chlorophyll and phytoplankton dynamics in the ice-free SO. Additionally, by comparing the full-field model output to synthetic satellite observations, we quantify sampling biases in satellite-derived estimates. We find that both the sign and the magnitude of the average surface chlorophyll imprint vary substantially across storms but last for at least 4 days after the storm passing. Based on our analysis, more than one third of the storms explain the majority of local non-seasonal chlorophyll variability, but satellite-derived storm imprints are often too large in magnitude. On the day of the storm passing, changes in vertical mixing predominantly cause surface chlorophyll anomalies, and reduced light availability due to enhanced cloud cover outweighs the enhanced nutrient availability due to entrainment. Interestingly, storms imprint differently on total net primary production than on surface chlorophyll, demonstrating the difficulty to derive carbon-cycle impacts from a surface-chlorophyll assessment. With SO future storm activity projected to increase, complementing satellite observations with other observing technologies, for example, profiling floats, is necessary to better constrain how storms impact biological carbon cycling in the SO.

Nissen, Cara [University of Colorado, Boulder, CO ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of an Optimal Variable-Pitch Controller for Floating Axial-Flow Marine Hydrokinetic Turbines

This article discusses the development of an optimal variable-pitch controller for floating, axial-flow marine turbines. Recently, OpenFAST, an open-source wind turbine modeling tool, has been extended to model marine turbines. A controller is necessary to simulate marine turbines for different load cases using OpenFAST, which greatly impacts the performance of the energy system. Previous studies have designed controllers using a linearized model of the marine turbine, which can be time-consuming and require the expertise of a control engineer. In this study, we use an automated approach that uses generic models of the marine turbine to identify the controller gains, which can expedite the process of designing a controller. Using an optimizer to identify the control system parameters can additionally improve the controller's performance. The optimal controller tuned using such an approach results in a 20% reduction in the tower-base damage equivalent loading and better tracking of the rated generator speed and power.

axial flow↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of Scalable Coastal and Offshore Macroalgal Farming

The US DOE/ARPA-E MARINER program funded a four-year project to determine an optimal way to grow kelps in large, nearshore and offshore arrays for the eventual purpose of biofuel production with the goal of keeping the cost below $\$$80 USD per dry metric ton of kelp. This project specifically looked at how Saccharina latissima can be grown in the Gulf of Alaska to reach that goal. There were three major aspects of the research: 1) optimizing nursery production and seeding lines for outplanting, 2) designing an economical, modular outplanting structure and 3) developing methods to efficiently harvest the product. Farm designs were based on catenary structures and the use of spreader bars with variable spacing of grow lines and line types. The spacing of the grow lines makes a difference in the yield. Grow line spacing of ≥1.5m showed about a 50% increase in kg/m. There was no statistical difference in the growth of Saccharina latissima whether in the middle or the outside of the array, but the line type and perhaps line thickness can make a difference in yield. Sagging caused by the weight of the mature fronds resulted in lower growth at depth. Various harvesting approaches for mature kelps were tested by collaborating farmers. One promising innovation is the use of large bags for holding the freshly harvested fronds. Although the weight of the fronds on the growlines causes the lines to sink, the bags packed with the harvested fronds float, allowing for easy loading to the transfer vessel. Another advance in harvesting is a specially built harvest vessel, the Harvest Buddy, allowing a more mechanized and faster way to harvest. A significant aspect of this project was the TTO/T2M. Several different outreach activities were performed by the Alaska Fisheries Development Foundation and GreenWave. A techno-economic assessment (TEA) using our data has pointed to solutions to reach the $\$$80 goal. A second phase of this project involved the co-culture of two different species of kelps. Interest in farming kelps has grown beyond using kelp for food, feed or biofuels. There is considerable interest in generating biomass from seaweed for use in bioplastics and other products that would substitute for petroleum-derived products. For these uses to be viable, large amounts of biomass are needed. Very large kelp farms can be expensive to build and maintain, leading to the need to optimize the biomass per unit area. Although close spacing of growlines can lead to poor growth, a viable approach may be to grow two species of kelps together: one that hangs down and one that is buoyant, growing up. This system would increase the spacing in three dimensions. In Alaska, Saccharina latissima is commonly grown hanging down from longlines. One of the buoyant Alaskan kelps is Nereocystis luetkeana. Because there are commercial uses for wild-harvested Nereocystis in Alaska, we undertook a preliminary trial in Kodiak, Alaska that grew both Saccharina and Nereocystis in the same longline array. Closely spaced lines were seeded the first week of February 2023 and set at 3m below the surface. The arrays were harvested in late June 2023. Despite having 45% fewer grow-lines, the total yield of the Nereocystis on the combined arrays was statistically similar to the Nereocystis only arrays. Total yields were greatest on the combined arrays, followed by the Nereocystis only and Saccharina only arrays. These results may have significance for large scale macroalgal production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Marine Hydrogen Demonstration

This report summarizes Phase 1 of a project involving the design of a Floating Hydrogen Production and Dispensing Barge destined for the Port of San Francisco (SF). The H 2 Barge is designed to produce renewable H 2 at the rate of ~ 530 kg/day, storing 512 kg of hydrogen at 517-bar, allowing fast refueling of hydrogen fuel cell vessels and land-side hydrogen delivery trailers for distribution into the nascent SF hydrogen ecosystem. The broader considerations that impacted the H2 Barge design are also described. An account is given of a new review process formulated by the United States Coast Guard (USCG) to review this first-of-its-kind maritime implementation of hydrogen technology. The immediate goals of the H 2 Barge Project are to 1) demonstrate the feasibility, viability and methods of hydrogen production, storage and fueling in a maritime context, 2) help shape (where needed) and navigate the required local, state and federal regulatory gauntlet and 3) catalyze a “green hydrogen ecosystem” (both marine and landside) with locally produced renewable hydrogen at the San Francisco waterfront. A summary is also given of the modeling and experimental activity of Phase 1 directed to the development of science-based refueling protocols for large marine Type IV 250-bar hydrogen tanks. Combined modeling and experimental studies are reported of the filling of large (28 kg) 250-bar Type IV hydrogen tanks of the type being deployed on early hydrogen ferries, such as the MV Sea Change. The primary question was to determine how such tanks can be successfully filled (state of charge greater than 97%) within 45 minutes without exceeding the 82 °C temperature limit historically set for such tanks. The studies show that a gas injector is needed avoid thermal stratification during filling which can result in potential hot spots. Pre-cooling of the hydrogen was found to be essential in most cases, as ambient conditions greatly affect the need for a pre-cooling to achieve the 45-minute fill time. Pre-cooling cannot be supplied by nearby water, such as that found in nature (bays, lakes, rivers, etc.) because pre-cooling cooling below 0 °C was found to be necessary to avoid excessive compression heating. The experimental results afforded a calibration of the engineering model (SOFIL) for these large 250-bar tanks, which now enables using SOFIL to predict volume-averaged hydrogen filling temperatures to an accuracy of +/- 2.7°C for these tanks. The model can therefore be used to evaluate potential scenarios for development of a standardized fueling methodology for ferries utilizing large Type-IV tanks of the type examined here.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gulf of Mexico Offshore Wind Transmission - Literature Review and Gaps Analysis: Environmental Considerations, Community Readiness, and Infrastructure

The ability to effectively and efficiently connect offshore wind energy resources to end users in the Gulf of Mexico, requires coordinated transmission planning to ensure that electric transmission facilities can adequately support future offshore development. The Gulf of Mexico has substantial wind resources in both shallow shelf waters and deeper waters off the shelf where fixed bottom and floating wind technologies would be most appropriate. Most interest in offshore wind development to date has been in the central and western portions of the Gulf of Mexico (Louisiana and Texas) in federal and state waters. As a companion study to other federal activities in the offshore wind transmission space, including the Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Literature Review and Gaps Analysis, the Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study, the West Coast Offshore Wind Transmission Literature Review and Gaps Analysis, the West Coast Offshore Wind Transmission Study, and the Advancing Offshore Wind Energy in the United States: U. S. Department of Energy Strategic Contributions Toward 30 Gigawatts and Beyond Report, this literature review and gaps analysis for offshore wind transmission in the Gulf of Mexico builds off previous literature reviews and supports the role of federal leadership to facilitate offshore wind energy. The overarching goal of this document is to identify gaps and lay the groundwork to inform coordinated transmission planning, ocean co-use, existing energy infrastructure, and siting associated with offshore wind energy development in the Gulf of Mexico. There are unique regional considerations for offshore wind transmission, which are summarized herein based on a review and assessment of publicly available information.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting the Galactic population of free-floating planets from realistic initial conditions

ABSTRACT We present the first prediction for the mass distribution function of Galactic free-floating planets (FFPs) that aims to accurately include the relative contributions of multiple formation pathways and stellar populations. We derive our predicted distribution from dedicated simulations of planet birth, growth, migration, and ejection around circumbinary systems and extend these results to also include the contributions from single and wide binary systems. Our resulting FFP mass distribution shows several distinct features, including a strong peak at ${\sim} 8\, {\rm M}_{\oplus }$ arising from the transition between pebble and gas accretion regimes and a trough at ${\sim} 1\, {\rm M}_{\oplus }$ due to the shift in the dominant ejection process from planet–planet scattering to ejection through interactions with stars in circumbinary systems. We find that interactions with the central binary in close circumbinary systems are likely the dominant progenitor for FFPs more massive than Earth, leading to a steep power-law dependence in mass that agrees well with existing observations. In contrast, we find planet–planet scattering events in single and wide binary systems likely produce the majority of planets at Mars mass and below, resulting in a shallower power-law dependence. Our results suggest that existing extrapolations into the sub-terrestrial mass range may significantly overestimate the true FFP abundance. The features we predict in the mass distribution of FFPs will be detectable by upcoming space-based microlensing surveys and, if observed, will provide key insight into the origins of FFPs and the environments in which they form.

Coleman, Gavin A. L. (ORCID:0000000151118963)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydraulic Conductivity Measurements, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2014

Six individual ice cores were collected from the Barrow Environmental Observatory in Barrow, Alaska, in May of 2013 as part of the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment (NGEE). Each core was drilled at a different location to varying depths. After drilling, the cores were stored in coolers packed with dry ice and flown to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) in Berkeley, CA. 3-dimensional images of the cores were constructed using medical X-ray computed tomography (CT) scanner at 120kV. Hydraulic conductivity samples were extracted from these cores at LBNL Richmond Field Station in Richmond, CA, in February 2014 by cutting 5 to 8 inch segments using a chop saw. Samples were packed individually and stored at -20C freezing temperatures to minimize any changes in structure or loss of ice content prior to analysis. Hydraulic conductivity was determined through falling head tests using a permeameter [ELE International, Model #: K-770B] (Appendix A). Samples were placed in a latex membrane via a membrane stretcher while frozen. Use of a membrane stretcher made the membranes easier to secure and minimized contact with the sample. A clear polycarbonate sleeve, fabricated with a stainless steel ring at the bottom to keep the sleeve from floating, was placed around the sample inside the permeameter to minimize deformation during analysis. The permeameter was filled with water and 1.0 PSI of air was applied for confining pressure during sample defrost. Outflow valves were left open to allow for incremental thawing and samples were left to thaw for approximately 12 hours. After approximately 12 hours of thaw, initial falling head tests were performed. When the flow was significantly too fast or too slow, the analysis was stopped and the burette size was adjusted accordingly (i.e. a larger diameter burette was used for flows that were faster than desired or a smaller diameter burette was used for flows that were slower than desired). Two to four measurements were collected on each sample and collection stopped when the applied head load exceeded 25% change from the original load. Analyses were performed between 2 to 3 times for each sample. The final hydraulic conductivity calculations were computed using methodology of Das et al., 1985.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty-Guided Prediction Horizon of Phase-Resolved Ocean Wave Forecasting Under Data Sparsity: Experimental and Numerical Evaluation

Accurate short-term wave forecasting is critical for the safe and efficient operation of marine structures that rely on real-time, phase-resolved ocean wave information for control and monitoring purposes (e.g., digital twins). These systems often depend on environmental sensors (e.g., waverider buoys, wave-sensing LIDAR). Challenges arise when upstream sensor data are missing, sparse, or phase-shifted due to drift. This study investigates the performance of two machine learning models, time-series dense encoder (TiDE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), for forecasting phase-resolved ocean surface elevations under varying degrees of data degradation. We introduce the τ-trimming algorithm, which adapts the prediction horizon based on uncertainty thresholds derived from historical forecasts. Numerical wave tank (NWT) and wave basin experiments are used to benchmark model performance under short- and long-term data masking, spatially coarse sensor grids, and upstream phase shifts. Results show under a 50% probability of upstream data loss, the τ-trimmed TiDE model achieves a 46% reduction in error at the most upstream target, compared to 22% for LSTM. Furthermore, phase misalignment in upstream data introduces a near-linear increase in forecast error. Under moderate model settings, a ±3 s misalignment increases the mean absolute error by approximately 0.5 m, while the same error is accumulated at ±4 s using the more conservative approach. These findings inform the design of resilient, uncertainty-aware wave forecasting systems suited for realistic offshore sensing environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗