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At least 73 records · Page 4

Remote Sensing of Surficial Process Responses to Extreme Meteorological Events

Changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological events are associated with changing environmental means. Such events are important in human affairs, and can also be investigated by orbital remote sensing. During the course of this project, we applied ERS-1, ERS-2, Radarsat, and an airborne sensor (AIRSAR-TOPSAR) to measure flood extents, flood water surface profiles, and flood depths. We established a World Wide Web site (the Dartmouth Flood Observatory) for publishing remote sensing-based maps of contemporary floods worldwide; this is also an online "active archive" that presently constitutes the only global compilation of extreme flood events. We prepared an article for EOS concerning SAR imaging of the Mississippi Valley flood; an article for the International Journal of Remote Sensing on measurement of a river flood wave using ERS-2, began work on an article (since completed and published) on the Flood Observatory for a Geoscience Information Society Proceedings volume, and presented lectures at several Geol. Soc. of America Natl. Meetings, an Assoc. of Amer. Geographers Natl. Meeting, and a Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium (all on SAR remote sensing of the Mississippi Valley flood). We expanded in-house modeling capabilities by installing the latest version of the Army Corps of Engineers RMA two-dimensional hydraulics software and BYU Engineering Graphics Lab's Surface Water Modeling System (finite elements based pre- and post-processors for RMA work) and also added watershed modeling software. We are presently comparing the results of the 2-d flow models with SAR image data. The grant also supported several important upgrades of pc-based remote sensing infrastructure at Dartmouth. During work on this grant, we collaborated with several workers at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Remote Sensing/GIS laboratory (for flood inundation mapping and modeling; particularly of the Illinois River using the AIRSAR/TOPSAR/ERS-2 combined data), with Dr. Karen Prestegaard at the University of Maryland (geomorphological responses to the extreme 1993 flood along the Raccoon drainage in central Iowa), and with Mr Tim Scrom of the Albany National Weather Service River Forecast Center (initial planning for the use of Radarsat and ERS-2 for flood warning). The work thus initiated with this proposal is continuing.

Brakenridge, G. Robert↗

Ellicott City Disasters II: Enhancing a Statistical Flood Risk Model to Continue Improving Early Warning Systems and Public Safety in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flooding events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of technological advancements and applied science are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters II project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, the project improved the original statistical flood risk model, FLuME (Flood Learning Model Environment), programmed by the first DEVELOP term. The enhancements incorporated an additional six years of precipitation and soil moisture data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), modeled using Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager. These Earth observations were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the US Geological Survey. The resultant flood risk model FLASH (Flood Learning Environment and Severity Assessment Hub) was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The addition of an advanced deep learning framework known as long short-term memory improved the model’s ability to capture relationships between variables. To assess the effectiveness of the new model, FLASH produced a model efficiency metric of 0.99, a significant improvement over the 0.85 value produced by the previous model. The project assisted the OEM in pursuing the integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a threat matrix capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Disasters↗

Ellicott City Disasters II: Enhancing a Statistical Flood Risk Model to Continue Improving Early Warning Systems and Public Safety in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flooding events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of technological advancements and applied science are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters II project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, the project improved the original statistical flood risk model, FLuME (Flood Learning Model Environment), programmed by the first DEVELOP term The enhancements incorporated an additional six years of precipitation and soil moisture data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), modeled using Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission TRMM Microwave Imager. These Earth observations were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the US Geological Survey. The resultant flood risk model FLASH (Flood Learning Environment and Severity Assessment Hub) was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The addition of an advanced deep learning framework known as long short-term memory improved the model’s ability to capture relationships between variables. To assess the effectiveness of the new model, FLASH produced a model efficiency metric of 0.99, a significant improvement over the 0.85 value produced by the previous model. The project assisted the OEM in pursuing the integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a threat matrix capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Disasters↗

Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods

Flooding affects more people than any other environmental hazard and hinders sustainable development. Investing in flood adaptation strategies may reduce the loss of life and livelihood caused by floods. Where and how floods occur and who is exposed are changing as a result of rapid urbanization4, flood mitigation infrastructure and increasing settlements in floodplains6. Previous estimates of the global flood-exposed population have been limited by a lack of observational data, relying instead on models, which have high uncertainty. Here we use daily satellite imagery at 250-metre resolution to estimate flood extent and population exposure for 913 large flood events from 2000 to 2018. We determine a total inundation area of 2.23 million square kilometres, with 255–290 million people directly affected by floods. We estimate that the total population in locations with satellite-observed inundation grew by 58–86 million from 2000 to 2015. This represents an increase of 20 to 24 per cent in the proportion of the global population exposed to floods, ten times higher than previous estimates. Climate change projections for 2030 indicate that the proportion of the population exposed to floods will increase further. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the satellite observations will improve our understanding of where floods are changing and how best to adapt. The global flood database generated from these observations will help to improve vulnerability assessments, the accuracy of global and local flood models, the efficacy of adaptation interventions and our understanding of the interactions between landcover change, climate and floods.

B.Tellman↗

Channeling episodes of Kasei Valles, Mars, and the nature of ridged plains material

The geologic mapping compiled at 1:500,000 scale of the northern Kasei Valles area of Mars (MTMs 25062 and 25067) indicates (1) at least three periods of Kasei Valles channeling, (2) the development of Sacra Fossae (linear depressions on Tempe Terra and Lunae Planum) in relation to Kasei channeling episodes, and (3) the nature of ridged plains material dissected by Kasei Valles on northern Lunae Planum. (The three channeling periods consists of two flood events and a later, sapping related event). These findings suggest hydrologic conditions and processes that formed Kasei Valles and associated features and terrains. It is concluded that an early period of flooding, whose source is perhaps buried beneath lava flows of Tharsis Montes, may have eroded streamlined features in northern Lunae Planum. Also, later floods originating from Echus Chasma formed after the initial flooding and the mesas adjacent to the plateau. The Sacra Fossae formed after the initial flooding and during the second flooding by sapping, outbreak, scarp retreat, and collapse along joints and fractures in ridged plains materials.

Chapman, Mary G.↗

An Experimental System for a Global Flood Prediction: From Satellite Precipitation Data to a Flood Inundation Map

Floods impact more people globally than any other type of natural disaster. It has been established by experience that the most effective means to reduce the property damage and life loss caused by floods is the development of flood early warning systems. However, advances for such a system have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-. national-, continental-. or even global-scale areas) and time (hourly to daily). Particularly, insufficient in situ data, long delay in data transmission and absence of real-time data sharing agreements in many trans-boundary basins hamper the development of a real-time system at the regional to global scale. In many countries around the world, particularly in the tropics where rainfall and flooding co-exist in abundance, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data for those data scarce (ungauged) areas and trans-boundary basins. Satellite remote sensing data acquired and processed in real time can now provide the space-time information on rainfall fluxes needed to monitor severe flood events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models, which can be parameterized by a tailored geospatial database. An example that is a key to this progress is NASA's contribution to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), launched in November 1997. Hence, in an effort to evolve toward a more hydrologically-relevant flood alert system, this talk articulates a module-structured framework for quasi-global flood potential naming, that is 'up to date' with the state of the art on satellite rainfall estimation and the improved geospatial datasets. The system is modular in design with the flexibility that permits changes in the model structure and in the choice of components. Four major components included in the system are: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM, topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flood direction. flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) spatially distributed hydrological models to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay thc input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to the users and decision-makers. Early results appear reasonable in terms of location and frequency of events. Case studies of this experimental system are evaluated with surface runoff data and other river monitoring systems. such as Dartmouth Flood Observatory's "Surface Water Watch" array of river reaches that are measured daily via other satellite remote sensing data. A major outcome of this progress will be the availability of a global overview of flood alerts that should consequently improve the performance of Decision Support System. We expect these developments in utilization of satellite remote sensing technology to offer a practical solution to the challenge of building a cost-effective early warning system for data scarce and under-developed areas.

Adler, Robert↗

Vermont Wildland Fires: Investigating the Role of Antecedent Conditions and Recent Environmental Trends in Exacerbating Fire Risk and Potential in Vermont

Under a changing climate, increases in dry conditions and extreme heat events are projected to exacerbate wildfire risk in the northeastern U.S. In recent years, Vermont has observed higher annual temperatures, more frequent heatwaves, increased annual precipitation, extreme flood events, and decreased snowfall. The mechanisms through which environmental factors contribute to increased fire risk in humid environments, such as Vermont, are poorly understood. The team partnered with the National Weather Service, the Vermont Division of Forests, and the University of Vermont to investigate phenological trends and antecedent conditions influencing wildland fire risk. For the phenological analysis, from 2001 to 2023, vegetation data, phenological dates, and snow water equivalent (SWE) values were accessed from Landsat 5Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9OLI-2, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS), respectively. For the antecedent condition analysis, from 2008 to 2023, soil moisture, Environmental Stress Index, wind speed, minimum relative humidity, and daily precipitation data were obtained from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), SERVIR, gridMET Wind, gridMET Humidity, and NClimGrid, respectively. The study found that green-up dates over the study period remain relatively stable, while snowmelt dates appear increasingly variable. Minimum relative humidity was the most significant environmental variable correlated with wildfire risk in Vermont. Results from this study will inform the National Weather Service's preparation of fire forecasts before prescribed burns and support community outreach by the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources.

Wildland Fire↗

Quaternary geology of the Channeled Scabland and adjacent areas

The quaternary history of the channeled scabland is characterized by discrete episodes of catastrophic flooding and prolonged periods of loess accumulation and soil formation. The loess sequence was correlated with Richmond's Rocky Mountain glacial chronology. At least five major catastrophic flood events occurred in the general vicinity of the channeled scabland. The earliest episode occurred prior to the extensive deposition of the Palouse formation. The last major episode of flooding occurred between about 18,000 and 13,000 years ago. It probably consisted of two outbursts from glacial Lake Missoula.

Baker, V. R.↗

AgMIP Regional Activities in a Global Framework: The Brazil Experience

Climate variability and change are projected to increate the frequency of extreme high-temperature events, floods, and droughts, which can lead to subsequent changes in soil moister in many locations (Alexandrov and Hoogenboom, 2000). In Brazil, observations reveal a tendency for increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events particularly in south Brazil (Alexander et al., 2006; Carvalho et al., 2014; Groissman et al., 2005), as well as projections for increasing extremes in both maximum and minimum temperatures and high spatial variability for rainfall under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios (Marengo et al., 2009).

climate change↗

Soil Moisture and Mesoscale Convective Complex Development During the 1993 US Midwest Flood: Results from the MM5-PLACE Atmosphere/Land-Surface Model

The 1993 US Midwest Flood produced record levels of flooding, in the Mississippi River Basin. This flooding resulted from repeated frontal passages and mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) during the months of June and July. A better understanding of processes that influenced MCC development during the 1993 Flood may lead to improved forecasts of heavy precipitation and flooding. Here, we consider the impact of soil moisture on MCC development during a two-day period (June 23-24) of the 1993 US Midwest Flood. The purpose of this study is to assess the importance of soil moisture distribution on the timing, intensity, and location of heavy precipitation. In this study, the MM5-PLACE Atmosphere/Land-Surface Model is utilized. The atmospheric component consists of the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model, and the land-surface component consists of the Goddard Parameterization for Land Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE). Initial soil moisture is provided from two sources: 1) NCEP reanalysis, and 2) Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) using NOAA rain gauge measurements as a proxy for soil moisture. NCEP reanalysis provides coarse resolution initial soil moisture (2.5 degree), while API provides high resolution initial soil moisture (10-200 km depending on NOAA rain gauge spacing). Initial results indicate that the distribution of soil moisture has a significant impact on the timing and location of heavy precipitation during this two-day flood event. Precipitation in simulations with high resolution initial soil moisture agrees more closely with observed precipitation. These results suggest that high resolution soil moisture observations are necessary to accurately predict severe storm development, heavy precipitation, and subsequent flooding.

Baker, R. David↗

Perspectives on Forced Predictability

This talk addresses the relationships between weather and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and various other low frequency atmospheric variations such as the Pacific/North American pattern. We focus, in particular, on the predictability of extreme wintertime precipitation events over the continental United States. We first examine fifty years of daily precipitation observations and quantify the leading patterns of winter weather variability. These weather systems, familiar to operational weather forecasters, account for many of the major flooding events on the west coast as well as the major winter snowstorms along the east coast. We next examine the statistics of these storm systems with a particular focus on the occurrence of extreme events. The leading weather systems show varying degrees of linkages to low frequency atmospheric variability. We show, for example, that on seasonal time scales the probability of occurrence of certain types of west coast storms is strongly enhanced by El Nino, while it is reduced during winters with an anomalous trough to the west of the dateline. ENSO also has a strong impact on storms that develop over the Gulf of Mexico and affect much of the eastern United States, with enhanced storminess during El Nino, and reduced storminess during La Nina conditions. We conclude with an example of how well current climate models are able to reproduce the basic linkages between weather and low frequency variability.

Schubert, S.↗

Modeling the Hydrodynamics, Sediment Transport, and Valley Incision of Outlet-forming Floods from Martian Crater Lakes

Open-basin lakes that have outlets, formed where the stored water breached the basin-confining topography (e.g., crater rims), have been recognized on Mars for decades. However, the mechanics involved in formation of these outlets has not been studied in detail. Here, we study this outlet formation process through a series of numerical experiments accomplished by adding erosion and sediment transport routines to an existing hydrodynamic simulation, ANUGA. These experiments are consistent with outlets being carved in single flood events, at least if sediment was available throughout outlet formation as in a transport-limited regime. Peak discharges from these open-basin lakes, including from Jezero crater, were 10^4–10^6 m^3/s, and the outlet-forming floods lasted for days to weeks, depending on lake size. Moreover, we find that sediment transport by suspension was likely important during these floods – outlets could not have reached their observed sizes if flow was limited to bedload transport alone. This in turn may explain why small open-basin lakes are less commonly recognized on Mars, as small lakes had less inherent capacity to transport sediment in suspension and thus incise confining topography catastrophically. Geometry, topographic setting, and earlier fluvial valley development may have played a significant role in influencing the magnitude of outlet-forming floods and resulting outlet canyon incision.

Mars↗

Determining the Optimum Post Spacing of LIDAR-Derived Elevation Data in Varying Terrain for Flood Hazard Mapping Purposes in North Carolina and Texas

The major flood events in the United States in the past few years have made it apparent that many floodplain maps being used by State governments are outdated and inaccurate. In response, many Stated have begun to update their Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Digital Flood Insurance Rate Maps. Accurate topographic data is one of the most critical inputs for floodplain analysis and delineation. Light detection and ranging (LIDAR) altimetry is one of the primary remote sensing technologies that can be used to obtain high-resolution and high-accuracy digital elevation data suitable for hydrologic and hydraulic (H&H) modeling, in part because of its ability to "penetrate" various cover types and to record geospatial data from the Earth's surface. However, the posting density or spacing at which LIDAR collects the data will affect the resulting accuracies of the derived bare Earth surface, depending on terrain type and land cover type. For example, flat areas are thought to require higher or denser postings than hilly areas to capture subtle changes in the topography that could have a significant effect on flooding extent. Likewise, if an area has dense understory and overstory, it may be difficult to receive LIDAR returns from the Earth's surface, which would affect the accuracy of that bare Earth surface and thus would affect flood model results. For these reasons, NASA and FEMA have partnered with the State of North Carolina and with the U.S./Mexico Foundation in Texas to assess the effect of LIDAR point density on the characterization of topographic variation and on H&H modeling results for improved floodplain mapping. Research for this project is being conducted in two areas of North Carolina and in the City of Brownsville, Texas, each with a different type of terrain and varying land cover/land use. Because of various project constraints, LIDAR data were acquired once at a high posting density and then decimated to coarser postings or densities. Quality assurance/quality control analyses were performed on each dataset. Cross sections extracted form the high density and then the decimated datasets were individually input into an H&H model to determine the model's sensitivity to topographic variation and the effect of that variation on the resulting water profiles. Additional analysis was performed on the Brownsville, Texas, LIDAR data to determine the percentage of returns that "penetrated" various types of canopy or vegetative cover. It is hoped that the results of these studies will benefit state and local communities as they consider the post spacing at which to acquire LIDAR data (which affects cost) and will benefit FEMA as the Agency assesses the use of different technologies for updating National Flood Insurance Program and related products.

Berglund, Judith↗

Combining Space-Based and In-Situ Measurements to Track Flooding in Thailand

We describe efforts to integrate in-situ sensing, space-borne sensing, hydrological modeling, active control of sensing, and automatic data product generation to enhance monitoring and management of flooding. In our approach, broad coverage sensors and missions such as MODIS, TRMM, and weather satellite information and in-situ weather and river gauging information are all inputs to track flooding via river basin and sub-basin hydrological models. While these inputs can provide significant information as to the major flooding, targetable space measurements can provide better spatial resolution measurements of flooding extent. In order to leverage such assets we automatically task observations in response to automated analysis indications of major flooding. These new measurements are automatically processed and assimilated with the other flooding data. We describe our ongoing efforts to deploy this system to track major flooding events in Thailand.

Flooding↗

InVEST Urban Development: Incorporating Earth Observation Data into the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model Python API

Urban flooding poses as one of the biggest issues for cities today as its impacts are amplified by both climate change and urbanization. The Natural Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation (UFRM) model, which benefits from its simplicity and robustness, is commonly used in NASA DEVELOP projects for disaster mitigation, urban planning, and environmental justice issues. While the InVEST UFRM model was able to produce the surface water runoff and retention map sufficient for the scopes of past projects, the model’s accuracy and spatial variability need improvement. Since the current InVEST UFRM model employs constant rainfall depth for all pixels in the area of interest (AOI), the model suffers from inaccurately estimating rainfall depth, runoff volume, and flood depth. Therefore, we adapted the model so that satellite-based precipitation raster datasets (i.e., Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement [GPM IMERG]) can be used instead of a single constant value. We simulated the flood events on August 21st and August 22nd, 2017, in Wyandotte County, Kansas using both our modified and the original InVEST UFRM model and then compared the results after incorporating rainfall raster into the model. Areas with developed land on the land use map predicted moderate to high flood volume in the original volume regardless of the actual amount of precipitation. The modified model considered the rainfall depth’s spatial variation achieving less overestimation of flood runoff and volume at low-to-moderate rainfall area.

Urban flooding↗

InVEST Urban Development: Incorporating Earth Observation Data into the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model Python API

Urban flooding poses as one of the biggest issues for cities today, as its impacts are amplified by both climate change and urbanization. The Natural Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation (UFRM) model, which benefits from its simplicity and robustness, is commonly used in NASA DEVELOP projects for disaster mitigation, urban planning, and environmental justice issues. While InVEST UFRM model was able to produce the surface water runoff and retention map sufficient for the scopes of past projects, the model accuracy and spatial variability need improvement. Since the current InVEST UFRM model employs constant rainfall depth for all pixels in the area of interest (AOI), the model suffers from inaccurately estimating rainfall depth, runoff volume, and flood depth. Therefore, we adapted the model so that satellite-based precipitation raster datasets (i.e., Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement [GPM IMERG]) can be used instead of a single constant value. We simulated the flood events on August 21st and August 22nd, 2017 in Wyandotte County, Kansas using both our modified and the original InVEST UFRM model and then compared the results after incorporating the rainfall raster into the model. Areas with developed land on the land use map predicted moderate to high flood volume in the original volume regardless of the actual amount of precipitation. The modified model considered the rainfall depth’s spatial variation achieving less overestimation of flood runoff and volume at low-to-moderate rainfall area.

Son Do↗

Hawai‘i Island Disasters: Using NASA Earth Observations to Assess Coastal Flood Risk with Measures of Land Cover Change, Flood Extent, and Vulnerability for Adaptation and Mitigation Planning on Hawai‘i Island

As the County of Hawai‘i faces an increased risk of extreme flooding events, sea-level rise, and other hazards associated with climate change, the need for building geospatial capacity to make better-informed decisions is critical. The County of Hawai‘i and Arizona State University partnered with NASA DEVELOP to complete a macro-scale risk analysis for the island of Hawai‘i analyzing flooding, land cover, vulnerability, and exposure factors using Earth observations and socio-economic data. The team assessed the variation in urban coastal vulnerability around the entire island of Hawai‘i, using satellite imagery of coastal land cover typology from satellite products such as Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). The team made a sharable geodatabase containing datasets modeling vulnerability to coastal flooding as well as the Hawai‘i Flood Risk Toolbox (HiFloRT) which contains multiple tools for the County to map land cover, extreme rainfall and flood extent across the Island. The end products will allow the County of Hawai‘i to establish a protocol and standard framework for the utilization of Earth observations in future planning.

Garren Kalter↗

Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems

Floods are the costliest natural disaster (United Nations 2004), causing approximately6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone (Doocy et al. 2013).Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD(Munich Re 2013). Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries (Davies et al. 2014).Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change (IPCC 2007). Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assessflooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure.

flood↗