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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Heavy Oil Polymer EOR in the Challenging Alaskan Arctic - It Works!

Under co-sponsorship of the US Department of Energy and Hilcorp Alaska LLC the first ever polymer field pilot commenced on 8/28/2018 in the Schrader Bluff heavy oil reservoir at the Milne Point Field on Alaska North Slope (ANS). The primary objective of the pilot is to prove the efficacy of polymer Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) to unlock the vast heavy oil resources on ANS. More than two and half years after startup, the polymer injection, supporting laboratory experiments and simulation studies steadily continue. The pilot started injecting hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (HPAM), at a concentration of 1,750 ppm to achieve a target viscosity of 45 cP, into the two horizontal injectors in the flood pattern. Production is monitored in the two horizontal producers. Based on laboratory measurements of polymer viscosity at reservoir conditions, the team decided to reduce polymer concentration to 1,200 ppm since July 2020 in an effort to control injection pressure and optimize polymer utilization. Quality control (QC) on the field ensures uniform polymer solution properties. Representative rock and fluid systems and test conditions are utilized in the corefloods on polymer retention, effect of injection water salinity, polymer loading, and their combinations on oil recovery. A history matched reservoir simulation model for forecasting oil recovery was developed on the basis of all the available field data. Field concerns related to the post-polymer breakthrough impact on flow assurance is addressed via specialized laboratory tests. Notwithstanding early operational disruptions and hydration issues, continuous polymer injection in both injectors has been achieved. To date, 950,000 lbs of polymer or 2 million barrels of polymer solution, equating to 13% of total pore volume (PV), has been placed in the flood pattern, serving as an effective indicator of adequate polymer injectivity. So far, the success of polymer EOR is evident from drastically reduced water cut in the producers, an estimated incremental 1,000 bopd over waterflood, and a favorable polymer utilization of 1.7 lbs/barrel of incremental oil. Polymer breakthrough was observed 26 months after the start of polymer injection. Main observations from corefloods are unusually high polymer retention values in some cases and a positive response to low salinity water. Although the heterogeneity in the flood pattern and exceptionally low water cut pose some challenges, persistent novel and justifiable simulation approaches have resulted in a robust history matched model. Experimental results on produced fluids treatment provide operational guidance for improved oil-water separation and mitigation of heater tube fouling. The ongoing success of the pilot is a key indicator of bringing the team ever closer to meeting the project’s primary objective. The encouraging results of the pilot is one of the drivers that has provided the impetus to apply polymer EOR throughout the Milne Point Field, which would increase oil recovery and extend the economic life of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System. The scientific knowledge, including the many lessons learned from this pilot also has referential value for other potential heavy oil EOR projects throughout the world. The collected data, operational lessons learned, and the overall success of the pilot are summarized in the paper.

None, None↗
DOE OSTI2024

How Rains and Floods Become Groundwater: Understanding Recharge Pathways With Stable and Cosmogenic Isotopes

Anthropogenic climate change leads to increased precipitation intensity and exacerbated droughts in California, challenging the reliability and drought resiliency of water supply. Storing floodwater underground via managed aquifer recharge can mitigate these effects through direct infiltration or streambed infiltration. Seasonally dry streams (arroyos) already play an important part in managing groundwater recharge to the Livermore basin (CA). Understanding how, when and where stormwater and arroyo water infiltrate is critical to effectively utilise this strategy. To track water from recent storms (water year 2022–2023, WY23) into the Livermore Valley Groundwater Basin, we analysed stable water isotopes (δ 18 O and δ 2 H) in combination with naturally occurring radioactive isotopic tracers, sulphur-35 ( 35 S, t ½ = 87 days) and tritium ( 3 H, t ½ = 12.3 years). By comparing measurements of δ 18 O, 35 S and 3 H in arroyos to precipitation and groundwater, we classified the relative age and identified source of recharge to 16 wells near two arroyos. Two wells contained water with recent recharge (from WY23) from local precipitation. One well had recent recharge from variable (precipitation and imported water) sources. One well contained imported water recharge. Three wells contained water from mixed recent and older (pre-WY23) waters, from local precipitation sources. Two wells contained recent recharge from local mine settling ponds. Seven wells had older recharge from local precipitation sources. This combination of isotopes allows us to delineate where local and imported water recharges in this highly managed basin and identify locations where managed aquifer recharge is contributing to rapid groundwater infiltration. Our combined interpretation of isotopic water ages and sources in the context of land use shows that local infiltration of precipitation in open spaces is an important recharge mechanism, in addition to the managed arroyo recharge. Finally, a broader familiarity with 35 S will enable more extensive research on the infiltration of urban floodwaters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate change challenges, plant science solutions

Abstract Climate change is a defining challenge of the 21st century, and this decade is a critical time for action to mitigate the worst effects on human populations and ecosystems. Plant science can play an important role in developing crops with enhanced resilience to harsh conditions (e.g. heat, drought, salt stress, flooding, disease outbreaks) and engineering efficient carbon-capturing and carbon-sequestering plants. Here, we present examples of research being conducted in these areas and discuss challenges and open questions as a call to action for the plant science community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gaps and ways forward in atmospheric blocking and extreme weather research

Atmospheric blocking often results in significant weather extremes, such as heatwaves, droughts, cold spells, and floods in mid-latitude regions. However, the physical processes behind blocking and its response to climate change are not well understood, which undermines predictions and decision-making for climate mitigation and adaptation. As a phenomenon with a timescale at the interface of weather and climate, blocking interacts with various elements of the climate system and connects short-term weather events to long-term climate extremes. Understanding atmospheric blocking is crucial, given that climate change may impact its frequency, duration, and geographic distribution. This perspective discusses new experimental approaches to improve our understanding of this important subject.

Wang, Lei [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Uses of High-Temperature Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage: Lessons Learned from Previous Projects

One of the critical challenges of the green energy transition is resolving the mismatch between energy generation provided by intermittent renewable energy sources such as solar and wind and the demand for energy. There is a need for large amounts of energy storage over a range of time scales (diurnal to seasonal) to better balance energy supply and demand. Subsurface geologic reservoirs provide the potential for storage of hot water that can be retrieved when needed and used for power generation or direct-use applications, such as district heating. It is important to identify potential issues associated with high-temperature reservoir thermal energy storage (HT-RTES) systems so that they can be mitigated, thus reducing the risks of these systems. This paper reviews past experiences from moderate and high-temperature reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES) projects, along with hot water and steam flood enhanced oil recovery (EOR) operations, to identify technical challenges encountered and evaluate possible ways to address them. Some of the identified technical problems that have impacted system performance include: 1) insufficient site characterization that failed to identify reservoir heterogeneity; 2) scaling resulting from precipitation of minerals having retrograde solubility that form with heating of formation brines; 3) corrosion from low pH or high salinity brines; 4) thermal breakthrough between hot and cold wells due to insufficient spacing. Proper design, characterization, construction, and operational practices can help reduce the risk of technical problems that could lead to reduced performance of these thermal energy storage systems.

energy storage↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Urbanization in China on the East Asian Summer Monsoon as Revealed by Two Global Climate Models

Abstract The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), vulnerable to anthropogenic activities, exerts profound impacts on precipitation in East Asia. In recent decades, China has been experiencing rapid urbanization. It has not yet reached a consensus on its influences on EASM. Here, we introduce satellite‐derived urban impervious areas of China during 1985–2017 into two global climate models with contrasting biases of climatological EASM simulation. Both models consistently show that urbanization weakens EASM by increasing surface friction drag. The increased surface roughness reduces climatological southerly winds in the concentrated urbanization area. As a result, moisture convergence occurs south of the concentrated urbanization area with ascending motion, while moisture divergence with descending motion appears to the north, resulting in the precipitation anomalies of “southern flood and northern drought.” The dominant role of urban dynamic forcing in regulating EASM is confirmed by reducing urban roughness to the level of croplands in sensitivity experiments. As urban dynamic forcing is largely mitigated, the urbanization impact mainly driven by urban thermal forcing conversely strengthens EASM due to enhanced land‐sea thermal contrast via urbanization‐induced warming. Spatial patterns and magnitudes of the urbanization‐induced EASM weakening vary between the two models due to disparities in their simulations of urban thermodynamic forcing and atmospheric adjustments. These results underscore the robust weakening effect of urbanization on EASM by urban friction drag and document uncertainties in the related spatial pattern and magnitude resulting from model discrepancies.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Shifting Trade-offs: Finding the Sustainable Nexus of Hydropower and Environmental Flows in the San Joaquin River Watershed, California

Environmental flow management in watersheds with multi-objective reservoirs is often presented as an additional constraint to an already strained and over-allocated stream system. Nevertheless, environmental flow legislation and regulatory policies are increasingly being developed and implemented globally. In California, USA, recent legislative and regulatory policies place environmental flows at the forefront of the state’s water management objectives; however, the increased reliance on hydropower to support climate change mitigation goals may complicate efforts on both issues. This study modelled alternative environmental flow strategies in the major tributaries to the San Joaquin River in California. Strategies included detailed water management rules for hydropower production, flood control, and water deliveries, and three methodological approaches to environmental flow releases: minimum instream flows (“baseline”) year-round, 40% of full natural flow (FNF) during the spring runoff season and minimum releases the remainder of the year, and functional flows year-round. Results show that environmental flow strategies affect downstream flow releases in each of the San Joaquin’s four sub-basins differently depending on infrastructure capacity, water management objectives, and hydrologic year types. While hydropower production was comparable or declined in the Stanislaus, Tuolumne, and Merced basins, functional flow and 40% FNF strategies increased hydropower production in the Upper San Joaquin basin by 11%. Uncontrolled spill of high flow events decreased when high flow releases were based on hydrologic cues rather than exclusively on flood storage capacity. Water deliveries were reduced in all years regardless of environmental flow strategy. The 40% FNF and functional flow strategies both increased water released to the river relative to baseline, but in different ways. The functional flow strategy allocated water in a holistic approach that enhanced ecological functions in all years, but particularly in moderate and wet years. In contrast, the 40% FNF strategy provided increased flows relative to baseline and some ecological benefit in dry years, but less ecological benefit in other years. This study shows that alternative environmental flow strategies will have different and important trade-offs for integrated water management, and may mutually benefit seemingly conflicting objectives.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Inventory and Probabilistic Function of Natural Hazards in the United States: July 19, 2018 - September 18, 2018

The U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a standardized risk assessment process that considers the location-specific vulnerabilities and threats (climate-related as well as human-caused) at a site to generate a ranked list of organizational risks and associated mitigation options for reducing those risks. To support this effort, the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP), a National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) team, was selected to provide climate science expertise to develop a comprehensive inventory and probabilistic function of natural hazards (e.g., hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, and sea level rise) for the entire United States by region. The inventory of climate-related hazards and the associated likelihood scores are incorporated into a companion risk assessment tool enabling standardized comparisons of risk at sites across the country.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Projected regional changes in mean and extreme precipitation over Africa in CMIP6 models

Precipitation plays a crucial role in Africa's agriculture, water resources, and economic stability, and assessing its potential changes under future warming is important. In this study, we demonstrate that the latest generation of coupled climate models (CMIP6) robustly project substantial wetting over western, central, and eastern Africa. In contrast, southern Africa and Madagascar tend toward future drying. Under shared socioeconomic pathways (defined by Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), our results suggest that most parts of Africa, except for southern Africa and Madagascar, will experience very wet years five times more often in 2050–2100, according to the multi-model median. Conversely, southern Africa and Madagascar will experience very dry years twice as often by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, we find that the increasing risk of extreme annual rainfall is accompanied by a shift toward days with heavier rainfall. Our findings provide important insights into inter-hemispheric changes in precipitation characteristics under future warming and underscore the need for serious mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Farmers’ Perception of Climate Change and Its Impacts on Agriculture

Climate change and climate variability drive rapid glacier melt and snowpack loss, extreme precipitation and temperature events, and alteration of water availability in the Himalayas. There is increasing observational evidence of climate change impacts on water resource availability and agricultural productivity in the central Himalayan region. Here, we assess the farmers’ perception of climate change and its impacts on agriculture in western Nepal. We interviewed 554 households and conducted eight focus group discussions to collect farmers’ perceptions of temperature and rainfall characteristics, water availability, onset and duration of different seasons, and the impacts of such changes on their lives and livelihoods. Our results indicate that the farmers’ perceptions of rising annual and summer temperatures are consistent with observations. Perception, however, contradicts observed trends in winter temperature, as well as annual, monsoon, and winter precipitation. In addition, farmers are increasingly facing incidences of extreme events, including rainfall, floods, landslides, and droughts. These hazards often impact agricultural production, reducing household income and exacerbating the economic impacts on subsistence farmers. Integrated assessment of farmers’ perceptions and hydrometeorological observations is crucial to improving climate change impact assessment and informing the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate

Abstract This research seeks to understand simulated supercell precipitation characteristics across the conterminous United States (CONUS) using high‐resolution, convection‐permitting, dynamically downscaled simulations for three 15‐year epochs. Epochs include a historical end‐of‐20th‐century period (1990–2005) and two end‐of‐21st‐century (2085–2100) scenarios for intermediate and pessimistic greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Simulated updraft helicity, which measures the corkscrew flow within a storm's updraft, is used as a proxy for supercells. An algorithm tracks and catalogues updraft helicity swaths that, when buffered, are used to acquire simulated precipitation from supercells. The historical epoch provides a baseline climatology of supercell precipitation for a contemporary climate, which is then compared against the two future epochs to assess how supercell precipitation may change during the 21st century. Despite their relatively small size, supercells provide critical precipitation to the Wheat and Corn Belts, large expanses of CONUS pasture and rangeland, regional aquifers and several large river basins. Many areas in the central CONUS receive upwards of 3%–6% of their annual and 5%–8% of their warm‐season precipitation from these storms. Results suggest that precipitation contribution from supercells will decrease in the future across most of the High Plains and Central and Northern Great Plains with robust increases likely across the south‐central and Southeast regions. Supercell precipitation rates are expected to increase for large portions of the CONUS by the end‐of‐the‐21st‐century, suggesting a growing threat for flash floods from these storms as they become more efficient precipitation producers. This research provides an initial perspective on the magnitude of supercell precipitation and potential changes to this important hydrologic input to assist water‐sensitive industries, private and public insurance markets, agriculture entities, as well as inform plans to mitigate and build resilience to rapid environmental and societal change.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Multi-Hazard Risk and Safety Considerations for Aging Nuclear Facilities

While probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear facilities is expected to include internal and external hazards for a risk-informed and performance-based design, the current state of practice treats each hazard independently. However, such an independent treatment of hazards may not account for the correlations between different hazards and their response of and damage to the structures, systems, and components (SSCs) in a plant resulting in underestimating the overall risk. This project proposes to advance the multi-hazard PRA of nuclear facilities to more adequately evaluate concurrent hazards and contribute to an increased safety of nuclear plants. A framework for multi-hazard PRA will be developed by identifying concurrent hazard events (both internal and external) and event sequences that include interdependencies through the response of SSCs. An example application of the multi-hazard PRA framework will be demonstrated by considering a generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) subjected to seismic and internal flooding hazards. Computational models for the response of components will be developed to generated multi-hazard fragility surfaces under seismic and flooding loads. A PRA model consisting of event and fault trees will also be developed to quantify the multi-hazard risk profile and compare it with the independent hazard risk profile. Overall, by advancing the multi-hazard PRA of nuclear facilities, this project enhances nuclear safety and reduces costs by mitigating unforeseen consequences caused by correlations between concurrent hazards.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Influence of the Instantaneous Collapse of Tailings Pond on Downstream Facilities

To evaluate the evolutionary processes guiding the formation of the tailings‐water mixtures produced by the instantaneous collapse of tailings ponds and the influence of these on downstream facilities, a 2D simulation model with reasonable boundary and working conditions derived from actual engineering practice was built in this study, and the relationship between dam‐break elevation and impact on downstream facilities was also analyzed to determine the relevant mechanism of influence. Computational results indicated that lowering the dam‐break elevation caused the maximum velocity and flooding depth, along with the flooded area at monitoring points, to gradually increase. The occurrence times of maximum velocity and flooding depth were also gradually moved forward as the breaking elevation was reduced; this effect is directly related to the increase in the total potential energy at the lower break elevations. Further simulations of sand‐prevent dams with different heights located downstream from a tailings pond were carried out to identify methods for mitigating the impact of dam failure. The results revealed that increasing the height of the sand‐prevent dam reduced the production of tailings mixtures. Based on the results, the construction of a sand‐prevent dam with a crest elevation equal to that of the starter dam was recommended.

Wang, Sha (ORCID:0000000324875445)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging ARM Data to Improve Models for Predictive Understanding of Energy and Security Challenges

Extreme weather and natural hazards can disrupt the energy sector, affecting demand, generation, transmission, distribution, consumption and operational planning at regional and national scales. These disruptions stem from a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, including winter storms, freezing rain, wet snow loading, severe convection, flooding and landslides, wildfires, prolonged heat, and drought. Many of these same phenomena can also affect national security through impacts to transportation and infrastructure. To support the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) focus on energy resilience and national security, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility is uniquely positioned to contribute measurement data, analyses, and modeling frameworks that can significantly improve predictive understanding of these hazards to mitigate their effects. To explore this opportunity, ARM convened a two-part virtual workshop in November 2025. The workshop engaged interdisciplinary experts in atmospheric science, energy systems, modeling, and operations. The goal of the meeting was to engage with these interdisciplinary experts to address three questions: • What are examples of atmospheric processes that represent significant risks to energy security or national security and where are those risks greatest? • What measurements or measurement strategies would improve ARM’s capacity to address these issues? • How can ARM and users of the ARM facility better work with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and multi-sector modeling communities to apply ARM data to improving E3SM simulations of these phenomena? Participants were asked to submit white papers ahead of the meeting to initiate thinking on these themes and to help organize discussions. Workshop sessions were then organized around themes identified in the white papers. First from the white papers and then through subsequent discussions, workshop participants identified many examples that address the three questions listed above. Participants called out energy system vulnerabilities to weather phenomena such as the impact of freezing rain, strong winds, and excessive heat on power grids. They also noted the effects that weather phenomena could have on energy demand or supply (e.g., through effects of extreme temperatures). They called out security vulnerabilities such as impacts to crops from aerosol-borne pathogens and risks to industry due to melting permafrost in the Arctic. In all, over a dozen meteorological phenomena were linked to energy or security vulnerabilities. For many of the identified phenomena, participants pointed out where ARM was well poised to address issues (e.g., through measurements of cloud microphysics to inform studies of freezing rain) but also noted needs for additional measurements or modified measurement strategies. For example, adaptive scanning of severe weather would be valuable for probing winter storms or severe convection. Participants pointed out the value in integrating external observations with ARM measurements and with applying artificial intelligence (AI) to ARM observation analysis and they advocated for using model simulations to help optimize measurement strategies through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). It was clear from the workshop that there are many ways that ARM observations can be used to mitigate energy and security concerns, but meeting participants were also asked to identify what they considered to be the greatest opportunities by ranking issues pertaining to the three workshop questions. This was accomplished through a survey administered to participants between the two virtual sessions. The highest-priority phenomena identified were winter storms, severe convection, and arctic processes. Discussion in the second session, therefore, focused primarily on these three areas, which were most fully developed in exploring ARM opportunities. Nevertheless, it was also clear that ARM has opportunities to contribute to all the identified topics. This report describes the workshop, including input from discussion and white papers (Sections 2 and 3) and a list of priority recommendations (section 4). Many other ideas for ARM contributions are discussed in individual white papers (Appendix D).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The detection and attribution of extreme reductions in vegetation growth across the global land surface

Abstract Negative extreme anomalies in vegetation growth (NEGs) usually indicate severely impaired ecosystem services. These NEGs can result from diverse natural and anthropogenic causes, especially climate extremes (CEs). However, the relationship between NEGs and many types of CEs remains largely unknown at regional and global scales. Here, with satellite‐derived vegetation index data and supporting tree‐ring chronologies, we identify periods of NEGs from 1981 to 2015 across the global land surface. We find 70% of these NEGs are attributable to five types of CEs and their combinations, with compound CEs generally more detrimental than individual ones. More importantly, we find that dominant CEs for NEGs vary by biome and region. Specifically, cold and/or wet extremes dominate NEGs in temperate mountains and high latitudes, whereas soil drought and related compound extremes are primarily responsible for NEGs in wet tropical, arid and semi‐arid regions. Key characteristics (e.g., the frequency, intensity and duration of CEs, and the vulnerability of vegetation) that determine the dominance of CEs are also region‐ and biome‐dependent. For example, in the wet tropics, dominant individual CEs have both higher intensity and longer duration than non‐dominant ones. However, in the dry tropics and some temperate regions, a longer CE duration is more important than higher intensity. Our work provides the first global accounting of the attribution of NEGs to diverse climatic extremes. Our analysis has important implications for developing climate‐specific disaster prevention and mitigation plans among different regions of the globe in a changing climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methane-cycling microbial communities from Amazon floodplains and upland forests respond differently to simulated climate change scenarios

Seasonal floodplains in the Amazon basin are important sources of methane (CH 4 ), while upland forests are known for their sink capacity. Climate change effects, including shifts in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures, may alter the functionality of soil microbial communities, leading to uncertain changes in CH 4 cycling dynamics. To investigate the microbial feedback under climate change scenarios, we performed a microcosm experiment using soils from two floodplains (i.e., Amazonas and Tapajós rivers) and one upland forest. We employed a two-factorial experimental design comprising flooding (with non-flooded control) and temperature (at 27 °C and 30 °C, representing a 3 °C increase) as variables. We assessed prokaryotic community dynamics over 30 days using 16S rRNA gene sequencing and qPCR. These data were integrated with chemical properties, CH 4 fluxes, and isotopic values and signatures. In the floodplains, temperature changes did not significantly affect the overall microbial composition and CH 4 fluxes. CH 4 emissions and uptake in response to flooding and non-flooding conditions, respectively, were observed in the floodplain soils. By contrast, in the upland forest, the higher temperature caused a sink-to-source shift under flooding conditions and reduced CH 4 sink capability under dry conditions. The upland soil microbial communities also changed in response to increased temperature, with a higher percentage of specialist microbes observed. Floodplains showed higher total and relative abundances of methanogenic and methanotrophic microbes compared to forest soils. Isotopic data from some flooded samples from the Amazonas river floodplain indicated CH 4 oxidation metabolism. This floodplain also showed a high relative abundance of aerobic and anaerobic CH 4 oxidizing Bacteria and Archaea. Taken together, our data indicate that CH 4 cycle dynamics and microbial communities in Amazonian floodplain and upland forest soils may respond differently to climate change effects. We also highlight the potential role of CH 4 oxidation pathways in mitigating CH 4 emissions in Amazonian floodplains.

16S rRNA sequencing↗
DOE OSTI2021

Which Combinations of Environmental Conditions and Microphysical Parameter Values Produce a Given Orographic Precipitation Distribution?

This study applies an idealized modeling framework, alongside a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, to explore which combinations of upstream environmental conditions and cloud microphysical parameter values can produce a particular precipitation distribution over an idealized two-dimensional, bell-shaped mountain. Simulations focus on orographic precipitation produced when an atmospheric river interacts with topography. MCMC-based analysis reveals that different combinations of parameter values produce a similar precipitation distribution, with the most influential parameters being relative humidity (RH), horizontal wind speed (U), surface potential temperature (θ sfc ), and the snow fall speed coefficient (A s ). RH, U, and A s exhibit interdependence: changes in one or more of these factors can be mitigated by compensating changes in the other(s) to produce similar orographic precipitation rates. The results also indicate that the parameter sensitivities and relationships can vary for spatial subregions and given different environmental conditions. In particular, high θ sfc values are more likely to produce the target precipitation rate and spatial distribution, and thus the ensemble of simulations shows a preference for liquid precipitation at the surface. The results presented here highlight the complexity of orographic precipitation controls, and have implications for flood and water management, observational efforts, and climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mississippi's Strategic Resilience: A multi-systems approach to secure, reliable, and adaptable electric grid infrastructure

Mississippi’s electric grid resilience challenges are linked to an intersection of complex socioeconomic, ecological, technological, historical, and political challenges, exacerbated by increasing severe weather like flooding and tornado events. The state’s legacy of underinvestment in critical energy infrastructure, particularly in rural areas and vulnerable floodplains, have stressed an aging grid, creating long-lasting disruptions in electric service during weather-related outages. Effective emergency management and preparedness is further hampered by a lack of coordination across local, county, and regional scales. Using the TASTI-GRID platform and partnership with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Mississippi is developing a comprehensive regional resilience strategy to overcome energy security and reliability challenges, mitigating the impacts of natural hazards, and positioning Mississippi as a resilient and premier destination for residents, businesses, and economic development.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗