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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

Teleoperator comfort and psychometric stability: Criteria for limiting master-controller forces of operation and feedback during telemanipulation

The following question is addressed: How much force should operators exert, or experience, when operating a telemanipulator master-controller for sustained periods without encountering significant fatigue and discomfort, and without loss of stability in psychometric perception of force. The need to minimize exertion demands to avoid fatigue is diametrically opposed by the need to present a wide range of force stimuli to enhance perception of applied or reflected forces. For 104 minutes subjects repetitiously performed a series of 15 s isometric pinch grasps; controlled at 5, 15, and 25 percent of their maximum voluntary strength. Cyclic pinch grasps were separated by rest intervals of 7.5 and 15 s. Upon completion of every 10 minute period, subjects interrupted grasping activities to gage the intensity of fatigue and discomfort in the hand and forearm using a cross-modal matching technique. A series of psychometric tests were then conducted to determine accuracy and stability in the subject's perception of force experienced. Results showed that onset of sensations of discomfort and fatigue were dependent upon the magnitude of grasp force, work/rest ratio, and progression of task. Declines in force magnitude estimation slopes, indicating a reduction in force perception sensitivity, occurred with increased grasp force when work/rest ratios were greater than 1.0. Specific recommendations for avoiding discomfort and shifts in force perception, by limiting pinch grasp force required for master-controller operation and range of force reflection or work/rest ratios, are provided.

Wiker, Steven F.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Tactility as a function of grasp force: Effects of glove, orientation, pressure, load, and handle

One of the reasons for reduction in performance when gloves are donned is the lack of tactile sensitivity. It was argued that grasping force for a weight to be grasped will be a function of the weight to be lifted and the hand conditions. It was further reasoned that the differences in grasping force for various hand conditions will be a correlate of the tactile sensitivity of the corresponding hand conditions. The objective of this experiment, therefore, was to determine the effects of glove type, pressure, and weight of load on the initial grasping force and stable grasping force. It was hypothesized that when a person grasps an object, he/she grasps very firmly initially and then releases the grasp slightly after realizing what force is needed to maintain a steady grasp. This would seem to be particularly true when a person is wearing a glove and has lost some tactile sensitivity and force feedback during the grasp. Therefore, the ratio of initial force and stable force and the stable force itself would represent the amount of tactile adjustment that is made when picking up an object, and this adjustment should vary with the use of gloves. A dynamometer was fabricated to measure the grasping force; the tests were performed inside a glove box. Four female and four male subjects participated in the study, which measured the effects of four variables: load effect, gender effect, glove type, and pressure variance. The only significant effects on the peak and stable force were caused by gender and the weight of the load lifted. Neither gloves nor pressure altered these forces when compared to a bare-handed condition, as was suspected before the test. It is possible that gloves facilitate in holding due to coefficient of friction while they deter in peak grasp strength.

Bishu, Ram R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Experimental investigation of turbine blade-tip excitation forces

Results of a program to investigate the magnitude and parametric variations of rotordynamic forces which arise in high power turbines due to blade-tip leakage effects are presented. Five different unshrouded turbine configurations and one configuration shrouded with a labyrinth seal were tested with static offsets of the turbine shaft. The forces along and perpendicular to the offset were measured directly with a rotating dynometer. Exploration of casing pressure and flow velocity distributions was used to investigate the force-generating mechanisms. For unshrouded turbines, the cross-forces originate mainly from the classical Alford mechanisms while the direct forces arise mainly from a slightly skewed pressure pattern. The Alford coefficient for cross-force was found to vary between 2.4 and 4.0, while the similar direct force coefficient varied from 1.5 to 3.5. The cross-forces are found to increase substantially when the gap is reduced from 3.0 to 1.9% of blade height, probably due to viscous blade-tip effects. The forces also increase when the hub gap between stator and rotor decreases. The force coefficient decreased with operating flow coefficient. In the case of the shrouded turbine, most of the forces arise from nonuniform seal pressures. This includes about 80% for the transverse forces. The rest appears to come from uneven work extraction. Their level is about 50% higher in the shrouded case.

Martinez-Sanchez, Manuel↗
NASA NTRS1997

Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing: Calculations and Measurements from the Tropospheric

Radiative forcing is defined as the change in the net (downwelling minus upwelling) radiative flux at a given level in the atmosphere. This net flux is the radiative power density available to drive climatic processes in the earth-atmosphere system below that level. Recent research shows that radiative forcing by aerosol particles is a major source of uncertainty in climate predictions. To reduce those uncertainties, TARFOX was designed to determine direct (cloud-free) radiative forcing by the aerosols in one of the world's major industrial pollution plumes--that flowing from the east coast of the US over the Atlantic Ocean. TARFOX measured a variety of aerosol radiative effects (including direct forcing) while simultaneously measuring the chemical, physical, and optical properties of the aerosol particles causing those effects. The resulting data sets permit a wide variety of tests of the consistency, or closure, among the measurements and the models that link them. Because climate predictions use the same or similar model components, closure tests help to assess and reduce prediction uncertainties. In this work we use the TARFOX-determined aerosol, gas, and surface properties to compute radiative forcing for a variety of aerosol episodes, with inadvisable optical depths ranging from 0.07 to 0.6. We calculate forcing by several techniques with varying degrees of sophistication, in part to test the range of applicability of simplified techniques--which are often the only ones feasible in climate predictions by general circulation models (GCMs). We then compare computed forcing to that determined from: (1) Upwelling and downwelling fluxes (0.3-0.7 mm and 0.7-3.0 mm) measured by radiometers on the UK MRF C-130. and (2) Daily average cloud-free absorbed solar and emitted thermal radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere derived from the AVHRR radiometer on the NOAA- 14 satellite. The calculations and measurements all yield aerosol direct radiative forcing in the range -50 to -190 W sq m per unit inadvisable optical depth. The magnitudes are about 15 to 100 times larger than the global-average direct forcing expected for the global-average sulfate aerosol optical depth of 0.04. The reasons for the larger forcing in TARFOX include the relatively large optical depths and the focus on cloud-free, daytime conditions over the dark ocean surface. These are the conditions that produce the actual major radiative forcing events that contribute to any global-average climate effect. Detailed comparisons of calculated and measured forcings for specific events are used for more refined tests of closure.

Russell, P. B.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Vacuum-Assisted, Constant-Force Exercise Device

The vacuum-assisted, constant-force exercise device (VAC-FED) has been proposed to fill a need for a safe, reliable exercise machine that would provide constant loads that could range from 20 to 250 lb (0.09 to 1.12 kN) with strokes that could range from 6 to 36 in. (0.15 to 0.91 m). The VAC-FED was originally intended to enable astronauts in microgravity to simulate the lifting of free weights, but it could just as well be used on Earth for simulated weight lifting and other constant-force exercises. Because the VAC-FED would utilize atmospheric/vacuum differential pressure instead of weights to generate force, it could weigh considerably less than either a set of free weights or a typical conventional exercise machine based on weights. Also, the use of atmospheric/ vacuum differential pressure to generate force would render the VAC-FED inherently safer, relative to free weights and to conventional exercise machines that utilize springs to generate forces. The overall function of the VAC-FED would be to generate a constant tensile force in an output cable, which would be attached to a bar, handle, or other exercise interface. The primary force generator in the VAC-FED would be a piston in a cylinder. The piston would separate a volume vented to atmosphere at one end of the cylinder from an evacuated volume at the other end of the cylinder (see figure). Hence, neglecting friction at the piston seals, the force generated would be nearly constant equal to the area of the piston multiplied by the atmospheric/vacuum differential pressure. In the vented volume in the cylinder, a direct-force cable would be looped around a pulley on the piston, doubling the stroke and halving the tension. One end of the direct-force cable would be anchored to a cylinder cap; the other end of the direct-force cable would be wrapped around a variable-ratio pulley that would couple tension to the output cable. As its name suggests, the variable-ratio pulley would contain a mechanism that could be used to vary the ratio between the tension in the direct-force cable and the tension in the output cable. This mechanism could contain gears, pulleys, and/or levers, for example.

Hansen, Christopher P.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Precipitation Response to Regional Radiative Forcing

Precipitation shifts can have large impacts on human society and ecosystems. Many aspects of how inhomogeneous radiative forcings influence precipitation remain unclear, however. Here we investigate regional precipitation responses to various forcings imposed in different latitude bands in a climate model. We find that several regions show strong, significant responses to most forcings, but that the magnitude and even the sign depends upon the forcing location and type. Aerosol and ozone forcings typically induce larger responses than equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing, and the influence of remote forcings often outweighs that of local forcings. Consistent with this, ozone and especially aerosols contribute greatly to precipitation changes over the Sahel and South and East Asia in historical simulations, and inclusion of aerosols greatly increases the agreement with observed trends in these areas, which cannot be attributed to either greenhouse gases or natural forcings. Estimates of precipitation responses derived from multiplying our Regional Precipitation Potentials (RPP; the response per unit forcing relationships) by historical forcings typically capture the actual response in full transient climate simulations fairly well, suggesting that these relationships may provide useful metrics. The strong sensitivity to aerosol and ozone forcing suggests that although some air quality improvements may unmask greenhouse gas-induced warming, they have large benefits for reducing regional disruption of the hydrologic cycle.

Shindell, D. T.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Three degree-of-freedom force feedback control for robotic mating of umbilical lines

The use of robotic manipulators for the mating and demating of umbilical fuel lines to the Space Shuttle Vehicle prior to launch is investigated. Force feedback control is necessary to minimize the contact forces which develop during mating. The objective is to develop and demonstrate a working robotic force control system. Initial experimental force control tests with an ASEA IRB-90 industrial robot using the system's Adaptive Control capabilities indicated that control stability would by a primary problem. An investigation of the ASEA system showed a 0.280 second software delay between force input commands and the output of command voltages to the servo system. This computational delay was identified as the primary cause of the instability. Tests on a second path into the ASEA's control computer using the MicroVax II supervisory computer show that time delay would be comparable, offering no stability improvement. An alternative approach was developed where the digital control system of the robot was disconnected and an analog electronic force controller was used to control the robot's servosystem directly, allowing the robot to use force feedback control while in rigid contact with a moving three-degree-of-freedom target. An alternative approach was developed where the digital control system of the robot was disconnected and an analog electronic force controller was used to control the robot's servo system directly. This method allowed the robot to use force feedback control while in rigid contact with moving three degree-of-freedom target. Tests on this approach indicated adequate force feedback control even under worst case conditions. A strategy to digitally-controlled vision system was developed. This requires switching between the digital controller when using vision control and the analog controller when using force control, depending on whether or not the mating plates are in contact.

Fullmer, R. Rees↗
NASA NTRS1993

Climate forcings and feedbacks

Global temperature has increased significantly during the past century. Understanding the causes of observed global temperature change is impossible in the absence of adequate monitoring of changes in global climate forcings and radiative feedbacks. Climate forcings are changes imposed on the planet's energy balance, such as change of incoming sunlight or a human-induced change of surface properties due to deforestation. Radiative feedbacks are radiative changes induced by climate change, such as alteration of cloud properties or the extent of sea ice. Monitoring of global climate forcings and feedbacks, if sufficiently precise and long-term, can provide a very strong constraint on interpretation of observed temperature change. Such monitoring is essential to eliminate uncertainties about the relative importance of various climate change mechanisms including tropospheric sulfate aerosols from burning of coal and oil smoke from slash and burn agriculture, changes of solar irradiance changes of several greenhouse gases, and many other mechanisms. The considerable variability of observed temperature, together with evidence that a substantial portion of this variability is unforced indicates that observations of climate forcings and feedbacks must be continued for decades. Since the climate system responds to the time integral of the forcing, a further requirement is that the observations be carried out continuously. However, precise observations of forcings and feedbacks will also be able to provide valuable conclusions on shorter time scales. For example, knowledge of the climate forcing by increasing CFC's relative to the forcing by changing ozone is important to policymakers, as is information on the forcing by CO2 relative to the forcing by sulfate aerosols. It will also be possible to obtain valuable tests of climate models on short time scales, if there is precise monitoring of all forcings and feedbacks during and after events such as a large volcanic eruption or an El Nino.

Hansen, James↗
NASA NTRS1995

Effect of Hindlimb Unloading on Rat Soleus Fiber Force, Stiffness, and Calcium Sensitivity

The purpose of this study was to examine the time course of change in soleus muscle fiber peak force (N), tension (P(sub 0), kN/sq m), elastic modulus (E(sub 0)), and force-pCa and stiffness - pCa relationships. After 1, 2, or 3 wk of Hindlimb Unloading (HU), single fibers were isolated and placed between a motor arm and a transducer, and fiber diameter, peak absolute force, P(sub 0), E(sub 0), and force-pCa and stiffness-pca relationships were characterized. One week of HU resulted in a significant reduction in fiber diameter (68 +/- 2 vs. 57 +/- 1 micrometer), force (3.59 +/- 0.15 vs. 2.19 +/- 0.12 x 10(exp -4) N), P(sub 0) (102 +/- 4 vs. 85 +/- 2 kN/sq m), and E(sub 0) (1.96 +/- 0.12 vs. 1.37 +/- 0.13 X 10(exp 7) N/sq m) and 2 wk of HU caused a further decline in fiber diameter (45 +/- 1 micrometer), force (1.31 +/- 0.06 x 10(exp -4) N), and E(sub 0)(0.96 +/- 0.09 x 10(exp 7) N/sq m). Although the mean fiber diameter and absolute force continued to decline through 3 wk of HU, P(sub 0) recovered to values not significantly different from control. The P(sub 0)/E(sub 0) ratio was significantly increased after 1 (5.5 +/- 0.3 to 7.1 +/- 0.6), 2, and 3 wk of HU, and the 2-wk (9.5 +/- 0.4) and 3-wk (9.4 +/- 0.8) values were significantly greater than the 1-wk values. The force-pCa and stiffness-pCa curves were shifted right- ward after 1, 2, and 3 wk of HU. At 1 wk of HU, the Ca(2+) sensitivity of isometric force, assessed by Ca(2+) concentration required for half-maximal force, was increased from the control value of 1.83 +/- 0.12 to 2.30 +/- 0.10 micrometers. In conclusion, after HU, the decrease in soleus fiber P(sub 0) can be explained by a reduction in the number of myofibrillar cross bridges per cross-sectional area. Our working hypothesis is that the loss of contractile protein reduces the number of cross bridges per cross-sectional area and increases the filament lattice spacing. The increased spacing reduces cross-bridge force and stiffness, but P(sub 0)/E(sub 0) increases because of a quantitatively greater effect on stiffness.

McDonald Kerry S.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Numerical Calculation of the Drag Force Acting on a Solid Particle Pushed by a Solid/Liquid Interface

The distribution of insoluble particles in a metal casting depends primarily on the interaction of the particles with the solid/liquid interface (SLI) during the solidification process. The balance of the forces acting on the particle essentially determines whether a particle will be engulfed or pushed by the SLI. An important component of this force balance is the drag force generated by the particle motion in front of the SLI. Previously developed mathematical models for particle/SLI interaction made use of steady-state solutions of this force provided by the lubrication theory. However, our numerical model based on the SLI tracking approach shows that the steady-state approach is inappropriate to model the interaction process and that at steady-state the theoretical solution underestimates the drag force. It was found that regression analysis of steady-state numerical solutions for cylindrical particles moving normal to a flat SLI gives a relationship of the form: Abstract The distribution of insoluble particles in a metal casting depends primarily on the interaction of the particles with the solid/liquid interface (SLI) during the solidification process. The balance of the forces acting on the particle essentially determines whether a particle will be engulfed or pushed by the SLI. An important component of this force balance is the drag force generated by the particle motion in front of the SLI. Previously developed mathematical models for particle/SLI interaction made use of steady-state solutions of this force provided by the lubrication theory. However, our numerical model based on the SLI tracking approach shows that the steady-state approach is inappropriate to model the interaction process and that at steady-state the theoretical solution underestimates the drag force. It was found that regression analysis of steady-state numerical solutions for cylindrical particles moving normal to a flat SLI gives a relationship of the form: F(sub D, sup num) =sqoare root of 3(pi)(eta)V(sub p)(R(sub p)/d)(sup 10(gamma)/3). This is to compared to the solution provided by the lubrication theory: F(sub D), sup theor) = 3 square root of 2(pi)(eta)V(sub p)(R(sub p)/d)(sub 3/2), where F(sub D) is the drag force, eta is the dynamic viscosity of the fluid, V(sub p) is the particle velocity, R(sub p) is the particle radius, gamma is Euler's constant (gamma approx. = 0.577), and d is the width of the gap between the particle and the SLI. The domain on which the equations proposed by the lubrication theory are relevant is clearly identified in the paper. The numerical model was then validated against the classical lubrication theory within the domain of its validity.

Catalina, Adrian V.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2010

Forced and Unforced Variability of Twentieth Century North American Droughts and Pluvials

Research on the forcing of drought and pluvial events over North America is dominated by general circulation model experiments that often have operational limitations (e.g., computational expense, ability to simulate relevant processes, etc). We use a statistically based modeling approach to investigate sea surface temperature (SST) forcing of the twentieth century pluvial (1905-1917) and drought (1932-1939, 1948-1957, 1998-2002) events. A principal component (PC) analysis of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the North American Drought Atlas separates the drought variability into five leading modes accounting for 62% of the underlying variance. Over the full period spanning these events (1900-2005), the first three PCs significantly correlate with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific (PC 1), North Pacific (PC 2), and North Atlantic (PC 3), with spatial patterns (as defined by the empirical orthogonal functions) consistent with our understanding of North American drought responses to SST forcing. We use a large ensemble statistical modeling approach to determine how successfully we can reproduce these drought/pluvial events using these three modes of variability. Using Pacific forcing only (PCs 1-2), we are able to reproduce the 1948-1957 drought and 1905-1917 pluvial above a 95% random noise threshold in over 90% of the ensemble members; the addition of Atlantic forcing (PCs 1-2-3) provides only marginal improvement. For the 1998-2002 drought, Pacific forcing reproduces the drought above noise in over 65% of the ensemble members, with the addition of Atlantic forcing increasing the number passing to over 80%. The severity of the drought, however, is underestimated in the ensemble median, suggesting this drought intensity can only be achieved through internal variability or other processes. Pacific only forcing does a poor job of reproducing the 1932-1939 drought pattern in the ensemble median, and less than one third of ensemble members exceed the noise threshold (28%). Inclusion of Atlantic forcing improves the ensemble median drought pattern and nearly doubles the number of ensemble members passing the noise threshold (52%). Even with the inclusion of Atlantic forcing, the intensity of the simulated 1932-1939 drought is muted, and the drought itself extends too far into the southwest and southern Great Plains. To an even greater extent than the 1998-2002 drought, these results suggest much of the variance in the 1932-1939 drought is dependent on processes other than SST forcing. This study highlights the importance of internal noise and non SST processes for hydroclimatic variability over North America, complementing existing research using general circulation models.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Role of Forcing Uncertainty and Background Model Error Characterization in Snow Data Assimilation

Accurate specification of the model error covariances in data assimilation systems is a challenging issue. Ensemble land data assimilation methods rely on stochastic perturbations of input forcing and model prognostic fields for developing representations of input model error covariances. This article examines the limitations of using a single forcing dataset for specifying forcing uncertainty inputs for assimilating snow depth retrievals. Using an idealized data assimilation experiment, the article demonstrates that the use of hybrid forcing input strategies (either through the use of an ensemble of forcing products or through the added use of the forcing climatology) provide a better characterization of the background model error, which leads to improved data assimilation results, especially during the snow accumulation and melt-time periods. The use of hybrid forcing ensembles is then employed for assimilating snow depth retrievals from the AMSR2 (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2) instrument over two domains in the continental USA with different snow evolution characteristics. Over a region near the Great Lakes, where the snow evolution tends to be ephemeral, the use of hybrid forcing ensembles provides significant improvements relative to the use of a single forcing dataset. Over the Colorado headwaters characterized by large snow accumulation, the impact of using the forcing ensemble is less prominent and is largely limited to the snow transition time periods. The results of the article demonstrate that improving the background model error through the use of a forcing ensemble enables the assimilation system to better incorporate the observational information.

assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electromagnetic coil optimization for reduced Lorentz forces

Abstract The reduction of magnetic forces on electromagnetic coils is an important consideration in the design of high-field devices such as the stellarator or tokamak. Unfortunately, these forces may be too time-consuming to evaluate by conventional finite element modeling within an optimization loop. Although mutual forces can be computed rapidly by approximating large-bore coils as infinitely thin, this approximation does not hold for self-forces as it leads to an unphysical divergence. Recently, a novel reduced model for the self-field, self-force, and self-inductance of electromagnetic coils based on filamentary models was rigorously derived and demonstrated to be highly accurate and numerically efficient to evaluate (Hurwitz et al 2024 IEEE Trans. Magn. 60 7001614). In this paper, we present an implementation of the reduced self-force model employing automatic differentiation within the simsopt stellarator design software and use it in derivative-based coil optimization for a quasi-axisymmetric stellarator. We show that it is possible to significantly reduce point-wise forces throughout the coils, though this comes with trade-offs to fast particle losses and the minimum distance between coils and the plasma surface. The trade-off between magnetic forces and coil-surface distance is mediated by the minimum coil–coil distance for coils near the inboard side of the ‘bean’ cross-section of the plasma. The relationship between forces and fast particle losses is mediated by the normal field error. Coil forces can be lowered to a threshold with minimal deterioration to losses. Importantly, the magnet optimization approach here can be used also for tokamaks, other fusion concepts, and applications outside of fusion.

Hurwitz, Siena (ORCID:0000000166599659)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Future projections of storm surge in Hurricane Katrina and sensitivity to meteorological forcing resolution

In this study, we investigated whether and how the storm surge induced by Hurricane Katrina could change if it occurs in a future warmer climate, and the sensitivity of the changes to atmospheric forcing resolution. Climate model simulations of Hurricane Katrina at 27 km, 4.5 km, and 3 km resolutions were used to drive storm surge simulations in historical and future climates using the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. We found that peak surge height increased significantly in the future with all forcing resolutions. However, the future projection is 22% greater in the 3 km forcing, typical of regional climate models, compared to the 27 km forcing, typical of state-of-the-art global climate models. Additionally, the spatial extent of the future change is highly sensitive to forcing resolution, extending most broadly under the 27 km forcing. Furthermore, we found that storm surge duration decreases in the future with all forcing resolutions due to increasing TC translation speed and decreasing ocean lifetime. However, the future change in the surge duration is sensitive to the forcing resolution, decreasing by 31% in the 27 km forcing and 6% in the 3 km forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP)

Anthropogenic climate change is unfolding rapidly, yet its regional manifestation can be obscured by internal variability. A primary goal of climate science is to identify the externally forced climate response from among the noise of internal variability. Separating the forced response from internal variability can be addressed in climate models by using a large ensemble to average over different possible realizations of internal variability. However, with only one realization of the real world, it is a major challenge to isolate the forced response directly in observations. In the Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP), contributors used existing and newly developed statistical and machine learning methods to estimate the forced response over 1950–2022 within individual realizations of the climate system. Participants used neural networks, linear inverse models, fingerprinting methods, and low-frequency component analysis, among other approaches. These methods were trained using large ensembles from multiple climate models and then applied to observations. Here, we evaluate method performance within large ensembles and investigate the estimates of the forced response in observations. Our results show that many different types of methods are skillful for estimating the forced response in climate models, though the relative skill of individual methods varies depending on the variable and evaluation metric. Methods with comparable skill in models can give a wide range of estimates of the forced response pattern in observations, illustrating the epistemic uncertainty in forced response estimates. ForceSMIP gives new insights into the forced response in observations, its uncertainty, and methods for its estimation.

Climate attribution↗
NASA NTRS1989

Connection forces in deformable multibody dynamics

In the dynamic formulation of holonomic and nonholonomic systems based on D'Alembert-Lagrange equation, the forces of constraints are maintained in the dynamic equations by introducing auxiliary variables, called Lagrange multipliers. This approach introduces a set of generalized reaction forces associated with the system generalized coordinates. Different sets of variables can be used as generalized coordinates and accordingly, the generalized reactions associated with these generalized coordinates may not be the actual reaction forces at the joints. In rigid body dynamics, the generalized reaction forces and the actual reaction forces at the joints represent equipollent systems of forces since they produce the same total forces and moments at and about any point on the rigid body. This is not, however, the case in deformable body analyses wherein the generalized reaction forces depend on the system generalized reference and elastic coordinates. In this paper, a method for determining the actual reaction forces at the joints from the generalized reaction forces in deformable multibody systems is presented.

Shabana, A. A.↗