Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Forecast Models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of the Fitch Wind-Farm Wake Parameterization with Large-Eddy Simulations of Wakes Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Abstract Wind-farm parameterizations in weather models can be used to predict both the power output and farm effects on the flow; however, their correctness has not been thoroughly assessed. We evaluate the wind-farm parameterization of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with large-eddy simulations (LES) of the wake performed with the same model. We study the impact on the velocity and turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) of inflow velocity, roughness, resolution, number of turbines (one or two), and inversion height and strength. We compare the mesoscale with the LES by spatially averaging the LES within areas correspondent to the mesoscale horizontal spacing: one covering the turbine area and two downwind. We find an excellent agreement of the velocity within the turbine area between the two types of simulations. However, within the same area, we find the largest TKE discrepancies because in mesoscale simulations, the turbine-added TKE has to be highest at the turbine position to be advected downwind. Within the downwind areas, differences between velocities increase as the wake recovers faster in the LES, whereas for the TKE both types of simulations show similar levels. From the various configurations, the impact of inversion height and strength is small for these heights and inversion levels. The highest impact for the one-turbine simulations appears under the low-speed case due to the higher thrust, whereas the impact of resolution is low for the large-eddy simulations but high for the mesoscale simulations. Our findings demonstrate that higher-fidelity simulations are needed to validate wind-farm parameterizations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Even a good influenza forecasting model can benefit from internet-based nowcasts, but those benefits are limited

The ability to produce timely and accurate flu forecasts in the United States can significantly impact public health. Augmenting forecasts with internet data has shown promise for improving forecast accuracy and timeliness in controlled settings, but results in practice are less convincing, as models augmented with internet data have not consistently outperformed models without internet data. In this paper, we perform a controlled experiment, taking into account data backfill, to improve clarity on the benefits and limitations of augmenting an already good flu forecasting model with internet-based nowcasts. Here, our results show that a good flu forecasting model can benefit from the augmentation of internet-based nowcasts in practice for all considered public health-relevant forecasting targets. The degree of forecast improvement due to nowcasting, however, is uneven across forecasting targets, with short-term forecasting targets seeing the largest improvements and seasonal targets such as the peak timing and intensity seeing relatively marginal improvements. The uneven forecasting improvements across targets hold even when “perfect” nowcasts are used. These findings suggest that further improvements to flu forecasting, particularly seasonal targets, will need to derive from other, non-nowcasting approaches.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microphysical Piggybacking in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Abstract This paper presents incorporation of the microphysical piggybacking into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Microphysical piggybacking is to run a single simulation applying two microphysical schemes, the first scheme driving the simulation and the second piggybacking this simulated flow. “Driving the simulation” means that the simulated microphysical processes, affect the cloud buoyancy and thus force the simulated flow. In contrast, the piggybacking variables are advected by the simulated flow and undergo microphysical transformation, but they do not affect the simulated flow (like in prescribed flow—kinematic—simulations). The two sets of variables (driver and piggybacker) include temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and all microphysical variables. We provide details of implementing piggybacking into the WRF model, illustrate its applications, and demonstrate the benefits of this methodology in two idealized three‐dimensional cases: (a) a squall line case applying two microphysics schemes, the Thompson bulk microphysics scheme and the University of Pécs/NCAR bin (UPNB) scheme. The piggybacking simulations revealed that the microphysics‐dynamics interaction plays a more important role than the pure microphysical size sorting effect in the transition zone formation. (b) A case of daytime shallow‐to‐deep convective development over land. This case uses the UPNB scheme and contrasts convection developing in environments with either pristine or polluted cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The piggybacking results indicated that the increase of cloud cover and decrease of supersaturation are mainly associated with the microphysical effect of increasing CCN while the change of precipitation on the ground is also influenced by microphysics‐dynamics interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1997

Interannual Fluctuations in Atmospheric Angular Momentum Simulated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Medium Range Forecast Model

An earlier study established the existence of globally coherent interannual fluctuations in atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In this paper, we pursue the origin and the structure of these fluctuations using an ensemble of experiments generated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, medium range forecast model version 9. In the control experiments, where the observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were used as the lower boundary conditions, the model captures the characteristic V-like structure in time-latitude plots of zonally averaged AAM, while experiments with climatological SSTs and those with either perpetual warm or cold ENSO conditions superimposed on the climatological SSTs failed to reproduce this structure. The numerical results indicate that these AAM structures are related to SST variations associated with transitions between different phases of the ENSO cycle and have both propagating and standing components. The largest zonal wind contribution from the levels studied (850, 500, and 200 hPa) is at 200 hPa, where the tropical convective outflow is the strongest. Composites of zonal wind and geopotential height show a clear relationship between the stages of the global AAM oscillation and the ENSO cycle. The strong similarity between the simulated and observed AAM series attests to the model's ability to realistically simulate the interannual response of the atmosphere to ENSO SST anomalies.

Mo, Kingtse C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The effect of horizontal resolution on systematic errors of the GLA forecast model

Systematic prediction errors of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) forecast system are reduced when the higher-resolution (2 x 2.5 deg) model version is used. Based on a budget analysis of the 200-mb eddy streamfunction, the improvement of stationary eddy forecasting is seen to be caused by the following mechanism: by increasing the horizontal spatial resolution of the forecast model, atmospheric diabatic heating over the three tropical continents is changed in a way that intensifies the planetary-scale divergent circulations associated with the three pairs of divergent-convergent centers over these continents. The intensified divergent circulation results in an enhancement of vorticity sources in the Northern Hemisphere. The additional vorticity is advected eastward by a stationary wave train along 30 deg N, thereby reducing systematic errors in the lower-resolution (4 x 5 deg) GLA model.

Chen, Tsing-Chang↗
DOE OSTI2019

Microphysics of summer clouds in central West Antarctica simulated by the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)

Abstract. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) provided a highly detailed set of remote-sensing and surface observations to study Antarctic clouds and surface energy balance, which have received much less attention than for the Arctic due to greater logistical challenges. Limited prior Antarctic cloud observations have slowed the progress of numerical weather prediction in this region. The AWARE observations from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide during December 2015 and January 2016 are used to evaluate the operational forecasts of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) and new simulations with the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) 3.9.1. The Polar WRF 3.9.1 simulations are conducted with the WRF single-moment 5-class microphysics (WSM5C) used by the AMPS and with newer generation microphysics schemes. The AMPS simulates few liquid clouds during summer at the WAIS Divide, which is inconsistent with observations of frequent low-level liquid clouds. Polar WRF 3.9.1 simulations show that this result is a consequence of WSM5C. More advanced microphysics schemes simulate more cloud liquid water and produce stronger cloud radiative forcing, resulting in downward longwave and shortwave radiation at the surface more in agreement with observations. Similarly, increased cloud fraction is simulated with the more advanced microphysics schemes. All of the simulations, however, produce smaller net cloud fractions than observed. Ice water paths vary less between the simulations than liquid water paths. The colder and drier atmosphere driven by the Global Forecast System (GFS) initial and boundary conditions for AMPS forecasts produces lesser cloud amounts than the Polar WRF 3.9.1 simulations driven by ERA-Interim.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Fast domain-aware neural network emulation of a planetary boundary layer parameterization in a numerical weather forecast model

Abstract. Parameterizations for physical processes in weather and climate models are computationally expensive. We use model output from the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) climate model to train deep neural networks (DNNs) and evaluate whether trained DNNs can provide an accurate alternative to the physics-based parameterizations. Specifically, we develop an emulator using DNNs for a planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization in the WRF model. PBL parameterizations are used in atmospheric models to represent the diurnal variation in the formation and collapse of the atmospheric boundary layer – the lowest part of the atmosphere. The dynamics and turbulence, as well as velocity, temperature, and humidity profiles within the boundary layer are all critical for determining many of the physical processes in the atmosphere. PBL parameterizations are used to represent these processes that are usually unresolved in a typical climate model that operates at horizontal spatial scales in the tens of kilometers. We demonstrate that a domain-aware DNN, which takes account of underlying domain structure (e.g., nonlocal mixing), can successfully simulate the vertical profiles within the boundary layer of velocities, temperature, and water vapor over the entire diurnal cycle. Results also show that a single trained DNN from one location can produce predictions of wind speed, temperature, and water vapor profiles over nearby locations with similar terrain conditions with correlations higher than 0.9 when compared with the WRF simulations used as the training dataset.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

GOOML Big Kahuna Forecast Modeling and Genetic Optimization Files

This submission includes example files associated with the Geothermal Operational Optimization using Machine Learning (GOOML) Big Kahuna fictional power plant, which uses synthetic data to model a fictional power plant. A forecast was produced using the GOOML data model framework and fictional input data, and a genetic optimization is included which determines optimal flash plant parameters. The inputs and outputs associated with the forecast and genetic optimization are included. The input and output files consist of data, configuration files, and plots. A link to the Physics-Guided Neural Networks (phygnn) GitHub repository is also included, which augments a traditional neural network loss function with a generic loss term that can be used to guide the neural network to learn physical or theoretical constraints. phygnn is used by the GOOML framework to help integrate its machine learning models into the relevant physics and engineering applications. Note that the data included in this submission are intended to provide a demonstration of GOOML's capabilities. Additional files that have not been released to the public are needed for users to run these models and reproduce these results. Units can be found in the readme data resource.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Verification and validation of developed short-term forecasting models

Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies provide an opportunity for leveraging data-driven algorithms to predict future nuclear power plant (NPP) operating conditions by using recorded plant process data. Successfully implementing these models can lead to cost-reducing, conditioned-based predictive maintenance through optimized maintenance schedules and a reduction of unnecessary maintenance activities. This report discusses the verification and validation of short-term forecasting processes (i.e., data cleaning, feature selection, model optimization, and forecasting) developed in previous reports. The verification and validation (V&V) process demonstrates the expected precision and accuracy when the ML model encounters new datasets from different systems. Shapley additive explanations were used as the primary means of feature selection across these different data set. Individual models were trained for each data set, then validated through a cross-validation procedure. In this report, two different ML models were tasked to predict variables from three different plant process data sets with varying prediction horizons. The results indicate that support vector regression (SVR) outperformed long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks in regard to each data set and each prediction horizon in this study, but further tuning and optimization could improve long short-term memory results. However, each forecasting model showed reduced performance as the prediction horizon was extended from 1 hour to 1 day ahead. Research is ongoing to evaluate the optimal input variable space, which is based on a given set of process parameters, to further improve forecasting accuracy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1988

A study for systematic errors of the GLA forecast model in tropical regions

From the sensitivity studies performed with the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) analysis/forecast system, it was revealed that the forecast errors in the tropics affect the ability to forecast midlatitude weather in some cases. Apparently, the forecast errors occurring in the tropics can propagate to midlatitudes. Therefore, the systematic error analysis of the GLA forecast system becomes a necessary step in improving the model's forecast performance. The major effort of this study is to examine the possible impact of the hydrological-cycle forecast error on dynamical fields in the GLA forecast system.

Chen, Tsing-Chang↗
NASA NTRS2007

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting warm season convection over East-Central Florida. The Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Besides model core and initialization options, the WRF model can be run with one- or two-way nesting. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. This project assessed three different model intializations available to determine which configuration best predicts warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. The project also examined the use of one- and two-way nesting in predicting warm season convection.

Watson, Leela R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Simulation studies of the application of SEASAT data in weather and state of sea forecasting models

The design and analysis of SEASAT simulation studies in which the error structure of conventional analyses and forecasts is modeled realistically are presented. The development and computer implementation of a global spectral ocean wave model is described. The design of algorithms for the assimilation of theoretical wind data into computers and for the utilization of real wind data and wave height data in a coupled computer system are presented.

Cardone, V. J.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Sensitivity of Turbine-Height Wind Speeds to Parameters in the Planetary Boundary-Layer Parametrization Used in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Extension to Wintertime Conditions

This work extends the model sensitivity analysis of Yang et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 2017, Vol. 162, 117-142) to include results for February 2011, in addition to May of the same year. We investigated the sensitivity of simulated hub-height wind speeds to the selection of 26 parameters applied in the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) planetary boundary-layer parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, including parameters used to represent the dissipation of turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), Prandtl number (Pr), and turbulence length scales. Differences in the sensitivity of the ensemble of simulated wind speed to the various parameters can largely be explained by changes in the static stability. The largest monthly differences were found during the day, while the sensitivity to many of the parameters during the night were similar regardless of the month. This finding is consistent with an increased frequency of day-time stable conditions in February compared to May. The spatial variability of the sensitivity to TKE dissipation, Pr, and k can also be attributed to variability in the static stability across the domain at any point in time.

parametrization schemes, Parametric sensitivity, P↗
NASA NTRS2012

Evaluating the Contribution of NASA Remotely-Sensed Data Sets on a Convection-Allowing Forecast Model

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service forecast offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to help its partners address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is using guidance from local and regional deterministic numerical models configured at convection-allowing resolution to help assess a variety of mesoscale/convective-scale phenomena such as sea-breezes, local wind circulations, and mesoscale convective weather potential on a given day. While guidance from convection-allowing models has proven valuable in many circumstances, the potential exists for model improvements by incorporating more representative land-water surface datasets, and by assimilating retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from hyper-spectral sounders. In order to help increase the accuracy of deterministic convection-allowing models, SPoRT produces real-time, 4-km CONUS forecasts using a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (hereafter SPoRT-WRF) that includes unique NASA products and capabilities including 4-km resolution soil initialization data from the Land Information System (LIS), 2-km resolution SPoRT SST composites over oceans and large water bodies, high-resolution real-time Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composites derived from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, and retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). NCAR's Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package is used to generate statistics of model performance compared to in situ observations and rainfall analyses for three months during the summer of 2012 (June-August). Detailed analyses of specific severe weather outbreaks during the summer will be presented to assess the potential added-value of the SPoRT datasets and data assimilation methodology compared to a WRF configuration without the unique datasets and data assimilation.

Zavodsky, Bradley T.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part III: Boundary-Layer Parametrizations

Numerical weather prediction is often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model 4.0 was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City. We compare three different simulations in their ability to reproduce the observations, each using a different boundary-layer parametrization. Specifically, we examine the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ), Yonsei University (YSU), and Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) boundary-layer parametrizations. All three predict the wind speed well during the day but overpredict it at night. The MYNN parametrization is better than MYJ at predicting the daytime turbulence in the surface layer, but both underpredict the nocturnal turbulence. Additionally, the MYJ parametrization is best at predicting the reciprocal Obukhov length, while MYNN and YSU both significantly overpredict thermal stability. Reconstructing the reciprocal Obukhov length from other simulated parameters produces more accurate values for both parametrizations. All three models overpredict the boundary-layer height, particularly under convective conditions. The MYJ parametrization overestimates boundary-layer height the most, while YSU and MYNN have comparable performance with MYNN having an advantage in predicting the stable boundary-layer height. Several days were found where the WRF simulations predict significant deviations from the prevailing diurnal pattern in wind direction, which are not found in the observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗