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Grand Canyon Ecological Forecasting: Using NASA Earth Observations to Monitor and Model Juniper Woodland Mortality in Grand Canyon National Park

Significant die-offs of the drought tolerant species Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma) and one-seeded juniper (Juniperus monosperma) have been observed throughout central and northern Arizona, including Grand Canyon National Park (GCNP). As climate models project rising temperatures and continuous drought, land managers are concerned for the future of juniper in and around GCNP. This project incorporated data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and ocular samples of the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) in a random forest model to identify patterns between characteristics of the landscape and locations of juniper woodland mortality and to model areas subject to vulnerability. This study found no significant correlation between ocularly sampled juniper tree mortality and remotely sensed environmental variables used thus, accurately modeling mortality vulnerability in the future was not feasible. The ocular sampling, however, allows the partners at the GCNP’s Science & Resource Management Division to better understand areas of juniper tree woodland mortality and the relative amount of mortality in the park. Additionally, the areas of juniper tree mortality found in this project provide the partners with guidance for future field sampling.

Scarlet Jackson↗

A Regional L-band High Biomass Estimation Framework Leveraging Spaceborne Lidar and Interferometric Data to Overcome Backscatter Saturation

We propose a framework to estimate high above ground biomass (AGB) from L-band SAR imagery leveraging spaceborne lidars such as GEDI or ICESat-2 and repeat-pass coherence. Our results indicate we are able to overcome model saturation typically associated with purely backscatter methodologies. We validate our approach using lidar-derived AGB maps from the AfriSAR datasets at Mondah, Ogooue, and Lope. We apply our framework to UAVSAR and ALOS- 2 imagery to obtain 50 meter resolution biomass maps. We obtain < 60% nRMSE (in some cases much better) with negligible relative bias using a multiscale random forest model. We illustrate that the inclusion of coherence can significantly improve high AGB estimation particularly at the coastal site Mondah.

Liao, Tien-hao↗

Comparative Model Evaluation Studies of Biogenic Trace Gas Fluxes in Tropical Forests

Simulation modeling can play a number of important roles in large-scale ecosystem studies, including synthesis of patterns and changes in carbon and nutrient cycling dynamics, scaling up to regional estimates, and formulation of testable hypotheses for process studies. Recent comparative studies have shown that ecosystem models of soil trace gas exchange with the atmosphere are evolving into several distinct simulation approaches. Different levels of detail exist among process models in the treatment of physical controls on ecosystem nutrient fluxes and organic substrate transformations leading to gas emissions. These differences are is in part from distinct objectives of scaling and extrapolation. Parameter requirements for initialization scalings, boundary conditions, and time-series driven therefore vary among ecosystem simulation models, such that the design of field experiments for integration with modeling should consider a consolidated series of measurements that will satisfy most of the various model requirements. For example, variables that provide information on soil moisture holding capacity, moisture retention characteristics, potential evapotranspiration and drainage rates, and rooting depth appear to be of the first order in model evaluation trials for tropical moist forest ecosystems. The amount and nutrient content of labile organic matter in the soil, based on accurate plant production estimates, are also key parameters that determine emission model response. Based on comparative model results, it is possible to construct a preliminary evaluation matrix along categories of key diagnostic parameters and temporal domains. Nevertheless, as large-scale studied are planned, it is notable that few existing models age designed to simulate transient states of ecosystem change, a feature which will be essential for assessment of anthropogenic disturbance on regional gas budgets, and effects of long-term climate variability on biosphere-atmosphere exchange.

Potter, C. S.↗

Water Across Synthetic Aperture Radar Data (WASARD): SAR Water Body Classification for the Open Data Cube

The detection of inland water bodies from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data provides a great advantage over water detection with optical data, since SAR imaging is not impeded by cloud cover. Traditional methods of detecting water from SAR data involves using thresholding methods that can be labor intensive and imprecise. This paper describes Water Across Synthetic Aperture Radar Data (WASARD): a method of water detection from SAR data which automates and simplifies the thresholding process using machine learning on training data created from Geoscience Australia’s WOFS algorithm. Of the machine learning models tested, the Linear Support Vector Machine was determined to be optimal, with the option of training using solely the VH polarization or a combination of the VH and VV polarizations. WASARD was able to identify water in the target area with a correlation of 97% with WOFS. Sentinel-1, Open Data Cube, Earth Observations, Machine Learning, Water Detection 1. INTRODUCTION Water classification is an important function of Earth imaging satellites, as accurate remote classification of land and water can assist in land use analysis, flood prediction, climate change research, as well as a variety of agricultural applications [2]. The ability to identify bodies of water remotely via satellite is immensely cheaper than contracting surveys of the areas in question, meaning that an application that can accurately use satellite data towards this function can make valuable information available to nations which would not be able to afford it otherwise. Highly reliable applications for the remote detection of water currently exist for use with optical satellite data such as that provided by LANDSAT. One such application, Geoscience Australia’s Water Observations from Space (WOFS) has already been ported for use with the Open Data Cube [6]. However, water detection using optical data from Landsat is constrained by its relatively long revisit cycle of 16 days [5], and water detection using any optical data is constrained in that it lacks the ability to make accurate classifications through cloud cover [2]. The alternative solution which solves these problems is water detection using SAR data, which images the Earth using cloud-penetrating microwaves. Because of its advantages over optical data, much research has been done into water detection using SAR data. Traditionally, this has been done using the thresholding method, which involves picking a polarization band and labeling all pixels for which this band’s value is below a certain threshold as containing water. The thresholding method works since water tends to return a much lower backscatter value to the satellite than land [1]. However, this method can be flawed since estimating the proper threshold is often imprecise, complicated, and labor intensive for the end user. Thresholding also tends to use data from only one SAR polarization, when a combination of polarizations can provide insight into whether water is present. [2] In order to alleviate these problems, this paper presents an application for the Open Data Cube to detect water from SAR data using support vector machine (SVM) classification. 2. PLATFORM WASARD is an application for the Open Data Cube, a mechanism which provides a simple yet efficient means of ingesting, storing, and retrieving remote sensing data. Data can be ingested and made analysis ready according to whatever specifications the researcher chooses, and easily resampled to artificially alter a scene’s resolution. Currently WASARD supports water detection on scenes from ESA’s Sentinel-1 and JAXA’s ALOS. When testing WASARD, Sentinel-1 was most commonly used due to its relatively high spatial resolution and its rapid 6 day revisit cycle [5]. With minor alterations to the application's code, however, it could support data from other satellites. 3. METHODOLOGY Using supervised classification, WASARD compares SAR data to a dataset pre-classified by WOFS in order to train an SVM classifier. This classifier is then used to detect water in other SAR scenes outside the training set. Accuracy was measured according to the following metrics:  Precision: a measure of what percentage of the points WASARD labels as water are truly water  Recall: a measure of what percentage of the total water cover WASARD was able to identify.  F1 Score: a harmonic average of the precision and recall scores Both precision and recall are calculated at the end of the training phase, when the trained classifier is compared to a testing dataset. Because the WOFS algorithm’s classifications are used as the truth values when training a WASARD classifier, when precision and recall are mentioned in this paper, they are always with respect to the values produced by WOFS on a similar scene of Landsat data, which themselves have a classification accuracy of 97% [6]. Visual representations of water identified by WASARD in this paper were produced using the function wasard_plot(), which is included in WASARD. 3.1 Algorithm Selection The machine learning model used by WASARD is the Linear Support Vector Machine (SVM). This model uses a supervised learning algorithm to develop a classifier, meaning it creates a vector which can be multiplied by the vector formed by the relevant data bands to determine whether a pixel in a SAR scene contains water. This classifier is trained by comparing data points from selected bands in a SAR scene to their respective labels, which in this case are “water” or “not water” as given by the WOFS algorithm. The SVM was selected over the Random Forest model, which outperformed the SVM in training speed, but had a greater classification time and lower accuracy, and the Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network, which had a slightly higher average accuracy than the SVM, but much greater training and classification times. Figure 1: Visual representation of the SVM Classifier. Each white point represents a pixel in a SAR scene. In Figure 1, the diagonal line separating pixels determined to be water from those determined not to be water represents the actual classification vector produced by the SVM. It is worth noting that once the model has been trained, classification of pixels is done in a similar manner as in the thresholding method. This is especially true if only one band was used to train the model. 3.1 Feature Selection Sentinel-1 collects data from two bands: the Vertical/Vertical polarization (VV) and the Vertical/Horizontal polarization (VH). When 100 SVM classifiers were created for each polarization individually, and for the combination of the two, the following results were achieved: Figure 2: Accuracy of classifiers trained using different polarization bands. Precision and Recall were measured with respect to the values produced by WOFS. Figure 2 demonstrates that using both the VV and VH bands trades slightly lower recall for significantly greater precision when compared with the VH band alone, and that using the VV band alone is inferior in both metrics. WASARD therefore defaults to using both the VV and VH bands, and includes the option to use solely the VH band. The VV polarization’s lower precision compared to the VH polarization is in contrast to results from previous research and may merit further analysis [4]. 3.2 Training a Classifier The steps in training a classifier with WASARD are 1. Selecting two scenes (one SAR, one optical) with the same spatial extents, and acquired close to each other in time, with a preference that the scenes are taken on the same day. 2. Using the WOFS algorithm to produce an array of the detected water in the scene of optical data, to be used as the labels during supervised learning 3. Data points from the selected bands from the SAR acquisition are bundled together into an array with the corresponding labels gathered from WOFS. A random sample with an equal number of points labeled “Water” and “Not Water” is selected to be partitioned into a training and a testing dataset 4. Using Scikit-Learn’s LinearSVC object, the training dataset is used to produce a classifier, which is then tested against the testing dataset to determine its precision and recall The result is a wasard_classifier object, which has the following attributes: 1. f1, recall, and precision: 3 metrics used to determine the classifier’s accuracy 2. Coefficient: Vector which the SVM uses to make its predictions. The classifier detects water when the dot product of the coefficient and the vector formed by the SAR bands is positive 3. Save(): allows a user to save a classifier to the disk in order to use it without retraining 4. wasard_classify(): Classifies an entire xarray of SAR data using the SVM classifier All of the above steps are performed automatically when the user creates a wasard_classifier object. 3.3 Classifying a Dataset Once the classifier has been created, it can be used to detect water in an xarray of SAR data using wasard_classify(). By taking the dot product of the classifier’s coefficients and the vector formed by the selected bands of SAR data, an array of predictions is constructed. A classifier can effectively be used on the same spatial extents as the ones where it was trained, or on any area with a similar landscape. While

Kreiser, Zachary↗

Geometric-optical modeling of a conifer forest canopy

A geometric-optical model of a conifer forest canopy was constructed to describe the variance of a remotely-sensed image of a forest stand. The model is driven by interpixel variance generated from three sources: (1) the number of crowns in the pixel; (2) the size of the individual crowns; and (3) the overlapping of crowns and shadows. The illumination of a tree and its shadow is described as a cone using parallel-ray geometry. The model can also be inverted to provide estimates of the size, shape and spacing of the trees using remotely-sensed imagery and a minimum of ground measurements. The results of field tests using 10-meter and 80-meter multispectral imagery of two test conifer stands in northeastern California are presented. It is shown that the model produces reasonable estimates for the geometric parameters of the stand and appears to be sufficiently robust for application to other geometric shapes corresponding to different types of vegetation.

Li, X.↗

Estimation of regional surface resistance to evapotranspiration from NDVI and thermal-IR AVHRR data

Infrared surface temperatures from satellite sensors have been used to infer evaporation and soil moisture distribution over large areas. However, surface energy partitioning to latent versus sensible heat changes with surface vegetation cover and water availability. The hypothesis that the relationship between surface temperature and canopy density is sensitivite to seasonal changes in canopy resistance of conifer forests is presently tested. Surface temperature and canopy density were computed for a 20 x 25 km forested region in Montana, from the NOAA/AVHRR for 8 days during the summer of 1985. A forest ecosystem model, FOREST-BGC, simulated canopy resistance for the same period. For all eight days, surface temperatures had high association with canopy density, measured as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, implying that latent heat exchange is the major cause of spatial variations in surface radiant tmeperatures.

Nemani, Ramakrishna R.↗

Southern Colorado Disasters: Using NASA Observations to Map Aspen Extent and Recovery Due to Wildfire

Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) is an important species for wildlife, watershed health, and ecosystem resilience across its range. Heavy ungulate browsing and factors influenced by a changing climate including seasonal temperature changes and moisture deficit have led to reduced post-fire aspen regeneration rates in southern Colorado. This project partnered with Trinchera Ranch and the Colorado State Forest Service to estimate aspen recovery after the Spring Creek Fire, which ignited in June of 2018. The Southern Colorado Disasters team utilized field measurements and satellite imagery from Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to train and run several random forest models that detect pre- and post-fire aspen extent. Ocular sampling of over 500 points on high-resolution pre-fire and post-fire images identified percentage aspen cover in 30 x 30-meter grid cells. This process provided training data for regression models, which were able to detect aspen across the landscape for both time periods using multiple remote sensing vegetation health indices. In addition, landscape suitability for aspen regeneration was modeled to provide a guide for managers on where to monitor for aspen regeneration post-fire.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

Southern Colorado Disasters: Using NASA Earth Observations to Map Aspen Extent and Recovery Due to Wildfire

Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) is an important species for wildlife, watershed health, and ecosystem resilience across its range. Heavy ungulate browsing and factors influenced by a changing climate including seasonal temperature changes and moisture deficit have led to reduced post-fire aspen regeneration rates in southern Colorado. This project partnered with Trinchera Ranch and the Colorado State Forest Service to estimate aspen recovery after the Spring Creek Fire, which ignited in June of 2018. The Southern Colorado Disasters team utilized field measurements and satellite imagery from Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to train and run several random forest models that detect pre- and post-fire aspen extent. Ocular sampling of over 500 points on high-resolution pre-fire and post-fire images identified percentage aspen cover in 30 x 30-meter grid cells. This process provided training data for regression models, which were able to detect aspen across the landscape for both time periods using multiple remote sensing vegetation health indices. In addition, landscape suitability for aspen regeneration was modeled to provide a guide for managers on where to monitor for aspen regeneration post-fire.

DEVELOP Technical Paper↗

Spatial Variation of Fine Particulate Matter Levels in Nairobi Before and During the COVID-19 Curfew: Implications for Environmental Justice

The temporary decrease of fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) concentrations in many parts of the world due to the COVID-19 lockdown spurred discussions on urban air pollution and health. However there has been little focus on sub-Saharan Africa, as few African cities have air quality monitors and if they do, these data are often not publicly available. Spatial differentials of changes in PM(sub 2.5) concentrations as a result of COVID also remain largely unstudied. To address this gap, we use a serendipitous mobile air quality monitoring deployment of eight Sensirion SPS 30 sensors on motorbikes in the city of Nairobi starting on 16 March 2020, before a COVID-19 curfew was imposed on 25 March and continuing until 5 May 2020. We developed a random-forest model to estimate PM(sub 2.5) surfaces for the entire city of Nairobi before and during the COVID-19 curfew. The highest PM(sub 2.5) concentrations during both periods were observed in the poor neighborhoods of Kariobangi, Mathare, Umoja, and Dandora, located to the east of the city center. Changes in PM(sub 2.5) were heterogeneous over space. PM(sub 2.5) concentrations increased during the curfew in rapidly urbanizing, the lower-middle-class neighborhoods of Kahawa, Kasarani, and Ruaraka, likely because residents switched from LPG to biomass fuels due to loss of income. Our results indicate that COVID-19 and policies to address it may have exacerbated existing air pollution inequalities in the city of Nairobi. The quantitative results are preliminary, due to sampling limitations and measurement uncertainties, as the available data came exclusively from low-cost sensors. This research serves to highlight that spatial data that is essential for understanding structural inequalities reflected in uneven air pollution burdens and differential impacts of events like the COVID pandemic. With the help of carefully deployed low cost sensors with improved spatial sampling and at least one reference-quality monitor for calibration, we can collect data that is critical for developing targeted interventions that address environmental injustice in the African context.

Environmental justice↗

Colorado Ecological Forecasting: Monitoring Post-fire Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) Distribution to Inform Management Planning

Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is a species of concern across the western United States as it has the potential to outcompete native plant species, reduce biodiversity, and diminish nutrient availability for ungulates. Furthermore, because cheatgrass can quickly dominate disturbed landscapes it has the potential to exacerbate wildfire risk by increasing fuel loads. In 2020, the Cameron Peak fire burned more than 200,000 acres on the Arapaho and Roosevelt National Forests in Colorado. These issues are of imminent concern for our partners at the Forest Service (USFS), as they are tasked with wildfire risk and invasive species mitigation. Disturbances such as wildfires can substantially increase the rate and extent of cheatgrass spread. Current cheatgrass mitigation methods rely on field crews to physically locate cheatgrass on the landscape, which takes time, money, and extensive manpower. Here, we developed two Random Forest models within the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) using remote sensing predictors derived from Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The first model identified suitable cheatgrass habitat while the other detected cheatgrass presence during the 2021 growing season. Topographic variables were found to be the most important in driving the habitat suitability model. Cheatgrass detection was also found to be possible within a short timespan with limited imagery surrounding a phenological shift of the plant. Maps produced from these models provide natural resource managers the ability to implement early detection and rapid response to prevent the spread of cheatgrass to new locations.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗

Southern Wyoming Ecological Forecasting: Monitoring Cheatgrass in Southern Wyoming and Northern Colorado to Inform Management Efforts Post-Mullen Fire

Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is a prominent invasive species in the Intermountain West that has the potential to out-compete native plant species, reduce biodiversity, and reduce the quality of habitat for ungulates. Furthermore, because cheatgrass readily establishes in disturbed landscapes, it can potentially increase fuel loads and exacerbate wildfire risk. In 2020, the Mullen Fire burned 176,878 acres in Carbon and Albany Counties, Wyoming and Jackson County, Colorado. Large fires such as this one raise concern for partners at the United States Forest Service and the United States Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center, who are tasked with rapidly detecting and controlling invasive species in the post-fire environment. We developed a Random Forest model trained by in-situ field data and spectral indices such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index, and Enhanced Vegetation Index derived from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument, and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission to detect and map cheatgrass presence during the 2021 growing season. The team successfully created a spectral cheatgrass detection map in the study area (RMSE = 13.71, R2 = 0.34). We also produced a NDVI time-series derived from Sentinel-2 MSI to analyze vegetation recovery patterns.

Dahlia Shahin↗

Yellowstone Ecological Forecasting: Assessing Change in Aspen Extent in Northern Yellowstone National Park

The removal and reintroduction of the gray wolf (Canis lupus) in Yellowstone National Park have played an important role in shaping the ecological composition of this distinct landscape, and it is a textbook example of multi-trophic dynamics. With particular importance to conservation science, the inter-trophic cascades between wolves and species such as the elk (Cervus canadensis) and the quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) have been extensively studied. In conjunction with the National Park Service, Yellowstone National Park, Utah State University, and the University of Wisconsin–Stevens Point, this project utilized satellite remote sensing to investigate the long-term trends in aspen extent. Through random forest modeling and phenological approaches, Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI; years 2017–2019) and Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM; years 1987–2011) datasets were used to derive an Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Tasseled Cap Indices (Brightness, Greenness, Wetness), and RGB true color composites. The International Space System Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (ISS GEDI) was used to analyze canopy height. Results were consolidated into maps and time-series that provide an in-depth and intricate depiction of aspen stand extent. The end products will assist the National Park Service in its management practices and inform wildlife restoration and rewilding decisions within and beyond the contexts of Yellowstone National Park.

Kyle Steen↗

Yellowstone Ecological Forecasting: Assessing Change in Aspen Extent in Northern Yellowstone National Park

The removal and reintroduction of the gray wolf (Canis lupus) in Yellowstone National Park have shaped the ecological composition of this distinct landscape, representing a textbook example of trophic dynamics. With particular importance to conservation science, researchers have studied the trophic cascades between wolves and species such as elk (Cervus canadensis) and quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides). In conjunction with the National Park Service, Yellowstone National Park, Utah State University, and the University of Wisconsin–Stevens Point, this project utilized satellite remote sensing to investigate the long-term trends in aspen extent. Through random forest modeling and phenological approaches, Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM; years 1986–2011) and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI; years 2017–2019) datasets were used to derive color composites, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and Tasseled Cap Indices (Brightness, Greenness, Wetness). The International Space System (ISS) Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) provided canopy height data. The team consolidated results into maps and time-series which provide an in-depth depiction of aspen stand extent. The National Park Service will use these end products to assist in its management practices and inform wildlife restoration decisions within and beyond Yellowstone National Park.

Kyle Steen↗

What’s That Supposed to Mean? Capturing Micro-Behaviors in Teams

Future long-duration space exploration (LDSE) crews will require extensive coordination, cooperation, and team functioning as they face a myriad of challenges rooted in both taskwork and teamwork (Bell et al., 2015; Landon et al., 2018). While exposed to extreme conditions, crew members must navigate living and working together in prolonged confinement. Moreover, astronaut teams are becoming increasingly diverse, introducing significant variability in team composition. This increasing diversity, alongside traditional constraints of LDSE, introduces additional challenges into effective team functioning. To date, most methods for capturing team functioning rely on self-report measures. Such measures are prone to several limitations, including but not limited to social desirability bias, halo effect, and leniency effects (Trull & Ebner-Priemer, 2013), which skew data and limit nuanced understandings of phenomena at play. Self-report measures broadly capture team functioning, lending the nature of such methods to identifying underlying “macro”-behaviors (i.e., behaviors that are long-standing and last over time). However, team functioning is far more complex than a series of macro-behaviors, rendering reliance on self-report data deficient for accurate measurement. Recent research demonstrates the potential of alternative methods for capturing team functioning, such as speech and physiological data (Chaffin et al., 2017; Murray & Oertel, 2018). Consequently, these methods are more suitable for capturing micro-behaviors: brief, often unconscious expressions that affect the extent to which an individual feels included by others around them (Paletz et al., 2013). Micro-behaviors can be further classified into microaggressions (i.e., subtle, negative exchanges; Keller & Galgay, 2010) or micro-affirmations (i.e., subtle, positive exchanges; Kyte et al. 2020), both of which influence team functioning. Due to the subtle nature of micro-behaviors, contextual factors have a significant impact when determining if it is aggressive or affirmative. Additionally, several iterations of microbehaviors can have lingering effects on team interactions. For example, the use of “mm-hmm” by a crew member can function as both a micro-affirmation and micro-aggression. Specifically, it can be indication of active listening (i.e., micro-affirmation) or as an expression of annoyance (i.e., aggression) depending on the context in which it occurs. Auditory features (e.g., tone, frequency) can help delineate between the two forms; however, the contextual factors (e.g., previous interactions between team members, crew demographics) add a layer of complexity that render auditory features alone as insufficient to capture micro-behaviors. Consequently, this paper seeks to provide a novel approach in which multi-modal data (i.e., auditory features and contextual features) are used in a random-forest model to better identify distinguishing characteristics between micro-affirmations and micro-aggressions. In turn, detected micro-behaviors are used to predict team performance, thereby demonstrating the value of capturing micro-behaviors as supplemental data to macro-behaviors.

Sydney R. Begerowski↗

Assessing Change in Aspen Extent in Northern Yellowstone National Park

The trophic cascade among wolves, elk, and aspen has influenced the landscape of Yellowstone National Park. Aspen promote greater biodiversity and have been indirectly affected by the 1926 removal and 1995 reintroduction of wolves in the park. Partnered with Yellowstone National Park, Utah State University, and the University of Wisconsin–Stevens Point, NASA DEVELOP analyzed the change in aspen stand extent from 1954 to 2021 over the elk wintering range that occurs in the northern part of Yellowstone and southern Montana. Focusing on 113 stands corresponding with belt transects monitored annually since 1999, the team georeferenced and digitized 1954 historical aerial imagery to determine aspen stand extent. From 1986 to 2019, the team processed Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) imagery for the entire elk wintering range using a random forest model to classify landcover types. Outputs were refined using a phenological approach that distinguishes between deciduous and evergreen landcover by differencing summer and fall vegetation indices. Finally, the team conducted a similar analysis for 2021, utilizing both Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Sentinel-2 MSI imagery. The team again focused on the stands associated with belt transects for this analysis to compare the beginning and end of the study period. Preliminary results indicate a slight decline over time. These results expand the understanding of the role of wolves on aspen in the Yellowstone ecosystem and inform future rewilding decisions within the park and beyond.

Vanessa Bailey↗

What’s That Supposed to Mean? Capturing Micro-Behaviors in Teams

Future long-duration space exploration (LDSE) crews will require extensive coordination, cooperation, and team functioning as they face a myriad of challenges rooted in both taskwork and teamwork (Bell et al., 2015; Landon et al., 2018). While exposed to extreme conditions, crew members must navigate living and working together in prolonged confinement. Moreover, astronaut teams are becoming increasingly diverse, introducing significant variability in team composition. This increasing diversity, alongside traditional constraints of LDSE, introduces additional challenges into effective team functioning. To date, most methods for capturing team functioning rely on self-report measures. Such measures are prone to several limitations, including but not limited to social desirability bias, halo effect, and leniency effects (Trull & Ebner-Priemer, 2013), which skew data and limit nuanced understandings of phenomena at play. Self-report measures broadly capture team functioning, lending the nature of such methods to identifying underlying “macro”-behaviors (i.e., behaviors that are long-standing and last over time). However, team functioning is far more complex than a series of macro-behaviors, rendering reliance on self-report data deficient for accurate measurement. Recent research demonstrates the potential of alternative methods for capturing team functioning, such as speech and physiological data (Chaffin et al., 2017; Murray & Oertel, 2018). Consequently, these methods are more suitable for capturing micro-behaviors: brief, often unconscious expressions that affect the extent to which an individual feels included by others around them (Paletz et al., 2013). Micro-behaviors can be further classified into micro-aggressions (i.e., subtle, negative exchanges; Keller & Galgay, 2010) or micro-affirmations (i.e., subtle, positive exchanges; Kyte et al. 2020), both of which influence team functioning. Due to the subtle nature of micro-behaviors, contextual factors have a significant impact when determining if it is aggressive or affirmative. Additionally, several iterations of micro-behaviors can have lingering effects on team interactions. For example, the use of “mm-hmm” by a crew member can function as both a micro-affirmation and micro-aggression. Specifically, it can be indication of active listening (i.e., micro-affirmation) or as an expression of annoyance (i.e., aggression) depending on the context in which it occurs. Auditory features (e.g., tone, frequency) can help delineate between the two forms; however, the contextual factors (e.g., previous interactions between team members, crew demographics) add a layer of complexity that render auditory features alone as insufficient to capture micro-behaviors. Consequently, this paper seeks to provide a novel approach in which multi-modal data (i.e., auditory features and contextual features) are used in a random-forest model to better identify distinguishing characteristics between micro-affirmations and micro-aggressions. In turn, detected micro-behaviors are used to predict team performance, thereby demonstrating the value of capturing micro-behaviors as supplemental data to macro-behaviors.

Sydney Begerowski↗

Modeling surface temperature distributions in forest landscapes

A model of the frequency distributions of the spatial variability in surface temperature is presented. Surface temperature data are obtained from two daytime and two nighttime flights of the Thermal IR Multispectral Scanner (TIMS) over forest land in western Oregon in August, 1985. The temperature values are corrected for atmospheric attenuation and thermal radiation emission with the LOWTRAN-6 algorithm. The temperature distributions were modeled with a two-parameter beta probability density distribution and the fit of the model was evaluated by comparison with the TIMS data set. Use of the model's parameters to identify and classify surface types shows good discrimination among various surfaces for the daytime images, with less distinct discrimination for the nighttime images.

Holbo, H. R.↗

Modelling Temporal Variability in the Carbon Balance of a Spruce/Moss Boreal Forest

A model of the daily carbon balance of a black spruce/feathermoss boreal forest ecosystem was developed and results compared to preliminary data from the 1994 BOREAS field campaign in northern Manitoba, Canada. The model, driven by daily weather conditions, simulated daily soil climate status (temperature and moisture profiles), spruce photosynthesis and respiration, moss photosynthesis and respiration, and litter decomposition. Model agreement with preliminary field data was good for net ecosystem exchange (NEE), capturing both the asymmetrical seasonality and short-term variability. During the growing season simulated daily NEE ranged from -4 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1) (carbon uptake by ecosystem) to + 2 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1) (carbon flux to atmosphere), with fluctuations from day to day. In the early winter simulated NEE values were + 0.5 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1), dropping to + 0.2 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1) in mid-winter. Simulated soil respiration during the growing season (+ 1 to + 5 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1)) was dominated by metabolic respiration of the live moss, with litter decomposition usually contributing less than 30% and live spruce root respiration less than 10% of the total. Both spruce and moss net primary productivity (NPP) rates were higher in early summer than late summer. Simulated annual NEE for 1994 was -51 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1), with 83% going into tree growth and 17% into the soil carbon accumulation. Moss NPP (58 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1)) was considered to be litter (i.e. soil carbon input; no net increase in live moss biomass). Ecosystem respiration during the snow-covered season (84 g Cm(exp -2)) was 58% of the growing season net carbon uptake. A simulation of the same site for 1968-1989 showed about 10-20% year-to-year variability in heterotrophic respiration (mean of + 113 g C m-2 y@1). Moss NPP ranged from 19 to 114 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1); spruce NPP from 81 to 150 g C nt-2 y,@l; spruce growth (NPP minus litterfall) from 34 to 103 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1); NEE ranged from +37 to -142 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1). Values for these carbon balance terms in 1994 were slightly smaller than the 1969 - 89 means. Higher ecosystem productivity years (more negative NEE) generally had early springs and relatively wet summers; lower productivity years had late springs and relatively dry summers.

Frolking, S.↗