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DOE OSTI2020

Network-Scale Ubiquitous Volume Estimation Using Tree-Based Ensemble Learning Methods

Currently ubiquitous volume data for roadway networks remains the key missing dimension in traffic operations. Most volume data are average annual daily traffic (AADT) measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). Although methods to factor the AADT to hourly averages for typical day of week exist, actual volume data is limited to a sparse collection of locations in which volumes are continuously recorded. This paper/poster explores the use of state-of-art machine learning techniques to estimate accurate volume measures that span the highway network providing ubiquitous coverage in space, and point-in-time measures for a specific date and time. Three tree-based ensemble learning models, random forest (RF), gradient boost machine (GBM), and extreme gradient boost (XGBoost), were tested for volume estimation by learning from combined dataset of commercial probe data provided by TomTom, the FHWA's Travel Monitoring Analysis System (TMAS) data, and other infrastructure attributes such as number of lanes, speed limit, and weather. The methods were tested on major corridors and freeways in the metropolitan area of Denver. All three machine learning methods were able to provide hourly volume estimates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year with around 18% mean absolute error to true volume and about 5% of error with respect to roadway capacity. The low error measures allow the potential application by transportation agencies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

An ecologically-constrained deep learning model for tropical leaf phenology monitoring using PlanetScope satellites

In tropical forests, leaf phenology signals leaf-on/off status and exhibits considerable variability across scales from a single tree-crown to the entire forest ecosystem. Such phenology signals importantly regulate large-scale biogeochemical cycles and regional climate. PlanetScope CubeSats data with a 3-m resolution and near-daily global coverage provide an unprecedented opportunity to monitor both fine- and ecosystem-scale phenology variability along large environmental gradients. However, a scalable method that accurately characterizes leaf phenology from PlanetScope with biophysically meaningful metrics remains lacking. Here we developed an index-guided, ecologically constrained autoencoder (IG-ECAE) method to automatically derive a deciduousness metric (i.e. percentage of tree canopies with leaf-off status within an image pixel) from PlanetScope. The IG-ECAE first estimated the reflectance spectra of leafy/leafless canopies based on their spectral indices characteristics, then used the derived reflectance spectra to guide an autoencoder deep learning method with additional ecological constraints to refine the reflectance spectra, and finally used linear spectral unmixing to estimate the relative abundance of leafless canopies (or deciduousness) per PlanetScope image pixel. We tested the IG-ECAE method at 16 tropical forest sites spanning multiple continents and a large precipitation gradient (1470-2819 mm year -1 ). Among these sites, we evaluated the PlanetScope-derived deciduousness with corresponding measures derived from WorldView-2 (n=9 sites) and local phenocams (n=9 sites). Our results show that PlanetScope-derived deciduousness agrees: 1) with that derived from WorldView-2 at the patch level (90m×90m) with r 2 =0.89 across all sites; and 2) with that derived from phenocams to quantify ecosystem-scale seasonality with r 2 ranging from 0.62-0.96. These results demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of IG-ECAE in characterizing the wide variability in deciduousness across scales from pixels to forest ecosystems, and from a single date to the full annual cycle, indicating the potential for using high-resolution satellites to track the large-scale phenological patterns and response of tropical forests to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decayheatml

This code is designed to predict and analyze the decay heat generated in molten salt reactors (MSRs) using a hybrid approach that combines machine learning and segmented polynomial fitting. The accurate prediction of decay heat is essential for reactor safety and the optimization of spent fuel storage. The code operates through several key components: 1) Data Architecture: It incorporates a modular data architecture that handles various MSR-specific operational parameters such as power density, humidity content, and air ingress. These parameters are sampled using Sobol sequences to ensure comprehensive coverage of operational uncertainties. 2) Machine Learning Framework: The code employs a diverse set of machine learning models, including polynomial regression, decision trees, random forests, gradient boosting, support vector regression, k-nearest neighbors, multi-layer perceptrons, and symbolic regression. These models are trained to predict decay heat over a wide temporal range, from immediate shutdown up to 10,000 years. 3) Region-Optimized Training: The temporal domain is divided into multiple regions, each modeled separately to capture distinct decay heat characteristics across different time scales. This approach significantly improves the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. 4) Segmented Polynomial Interpretation (SPI): The SPI method translates machine learning predictions into piecewise polynomial equations. These equations are physically interpretable and can be directly integrated into existing engineering workflows and safety analyses. 5) Front-End Interfaces: The code includes both a Jupyter notebook interface for research development and a Streamlit web application for operational deployment. These interfaces allow users to interactively explore decay heat predictions, adjust operational parameters, and visualize results in real-time. 6) Applications: The framework supports various applications, including safety system validation and spent fuel container optimization. It enables real-time evaluation of worst-case decay heat scenarios, informing the design of passive safety systems and optimizing container designs for long-term storage. Overall, this code provides a robust, accurate, and user-friendly tool for predicting decay heat in MSRs, enhancing reactor safety, and optimizing spent fuel management.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗

NASA NTRS1973

Satellite geological and geophysical remote sensing of Iceland

The author has identified the following significant results. Under a binational, multidisciplinary experiment ERTS-1 imagery is being used to measure and map dynamic natural phenomena in Iceland. A few of the initial results from the project are: (1) a large variety of geological and volcanic features can be studied, particularly on imagery acquired at low sun angle ( 10 deg), which have not been previously recognized; (2) under optimum snow cover conditions, geothermal areas can be discerned by their snowmelt pattern or by warm spring discharge into frozen lakes; (3) a variety of map types at scale of 1:1,000,000 and 1:500,000, can be compiled, made more accurate, or updated (changes in coastline, glaciers, lakes, etc.); (4) the persistence of snow in the highland areas, during the summer months, has important ramifications to rangeland management; (5) false color composites (MSS) permitted the mapping of four types of vegetation; forested, reclaimed, cultivated areas and grasslands, and the mapping of the seasonal change of the vegetation, all of high value to rangeland management when complete, repetitive coverage of Iceland becomes a reality with an operational satellite; and (6) the volcanic eruption on Heimaey was recorded.

Williams, R. S., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Temporal Variation of Aerosol Properties at a Rural Continental Site and Study of Aerosol Evolution through Growth Law Analysis

Aerosol size distributions were measured by a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) onboard the CIRPAS Twin Otter aircraft during 16 flights at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in northern central Oklahoma as part of the Aerosol Intensive Operation period in May, 2003. During the same period a second SMPS was deployed at a surface station and provided continuous measurements. Combined with trace gas measurements at the SGP site and back-trajectory analysis, the aerosol size distributions provided insights into the sources of aerosols observed at the SGP site. High particle concentrations, observed mostly during daytime, were well correlated with the sulfur dioxide (SO2) mixing ratios, suggesting nucleation involving sulfuric acid is likely the main source of newly formed particles at the SGP. Aerosols within plumes originating from wildfires in Central America were measured at the surface site. Vertically compact aerosol layers, which can be traced back to forest fires in East Asia, were intercepted at altitudes over 3000 meters. Analyses of size dependent particle growth rates for four periods during which high cloud coverage was observed indicate growth dominated by volume controlled reactions. Sulfate accounts for 50% to 72% of the increase in aerosol volume concentration; the rest of the volume concentration increase was likely due to secondary organic species. The growth law analyses and meteorological conditions indicate that the sulfate was produced mainly through aqueous oxidation of SO2 in clouds droplets and hydrated aerosol particles.

Wang, Jian↗

NASA NTRS1972

Remote sensing applications to forest vegetation classification and conifer vigor loss due to dwarf mistletoe

Criteria was established for practical remote sensing of vegetation stress and mortality caused by dwarf mistletoe infections in black spruce subboreal forest stands. The project was accomplished in two stages: (1) A fixed tower-tramway site in an infected black spruce stand was used for periodic multispectral photo coverage to establish basic film/filter/scale/season/weather parameters; (2) The photographic combinations suggested by the tower-tramway tests were used in low, medium, and high altitude aerial photography.

Douglass, R. W.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Highly Efficient Selection of High-redshift Emission-line Galaxies for Future DESI-like Surveys with Deep Multiband Imaging

Emission-line galaxies (ELGs) are an important tracer of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs) and large-scale structure at z > 1. In this work, we investigate the feasibility of using deep wide-area multiband imaging (e.g., from the Rubin Observatory) to efficiently select high-redshift ELGs. Using Hyper Suprime-Cam grizy photometry and COSMOS2020 many-band photometric redshifts, we design simple color cuts guided by a probabilistic random forest classifier to select galaxies at z = 1.1–1.6. We then empirically test and refine these color cuts using two samples of galaxies with deep spectroscopy and broad color coverage obtained with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Compared to DESI ELGs at z = 1.1–1.6, we achieve a higher redshift-measurement success rate (89% versus 69%), a much higher correct redshift-range success rate (84% versus 34%), and a far higher net surface density yield (1372 deg −2 versus 660 deg −2 ). Combining our sample with current DESI ELGs would increase the net ELG number density by a factor of ∼2.5, moving it out of the shot-noise limited regime and reducing the uncertainties on the BAO scale parameter at z = 1.1–1.6 by a factor of ∼2 at the highest redshifts. We also test selections using shallower photometry and obtain qualitatively similar results.

Salcedo Hernandez, Yoquelbin [University of Pittsb↗

NASA NTRS2020

Mark Twain National Forest Ecological Forecasting - Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Classify Ground Cover Types in the Mark Twain National Forest

The Mark Twain National Forest (MTNF) encompasses 1.5 million acres of public land in the Ozarks region of southeastern Missouri. The industrial boom between the 1880s and 1920s had devastating effects on the shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata),Missouri’s only native pine species. The combination of fire suppression on this fire-dependent species and timber harvest of mature pine stands inhibited the development of pine seedlings and promoted the establishment of hardwood stands. Partners at the US Forest Service’s MTNF are currently involved in restoration efforts in two ranger districts, which includes removing invasive eastern red cedar (Juniperus virginiana) and prescribed burning. To expand spatial coverage for the MTNF beyond in situ observation sites, the NASA DEVELOP team analyzed land cover change from 1986 through 2019 and forecasted changes based on a ‘business-as-usual' scenario out to 2040. The team incorporated remotely sensed data from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) into the random trees supervised classification tool in ArcGIS Pro. This tool spectrally separated pixels into five distinct land cover classes and produced classifications for 1986 and 2019, with kappa statistics of 0.87 and 0.81, respectively. Overall, there was a net decrease in conifer and meadow land cover between 1986 and 2019 along with a net increase in water, developed, and deciduous land cover. The team used TerrSet’s Land Change Modeler to forecast land cover through 2040. Results showed an increase in coniferous land cover and a decrease in deciduous cover, indicating a high probability that current restoration efforts will produce the intended effect.

Kaitlyn Bretz↗

NASA NTRS2020

Mark Twain National Forest Ecological Forecasting: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Classify Ground Cover Types in the Mark Twain National Forest

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗

DOE OSTI2023

Intensity of sample processing methods impacts wastewater SARS-CoV-2 whole genome amplicon sequencing outcomes

Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 surveillance has been deployed since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic to monitor the dynamics in virus burden in local communities. Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater, particularly efforts aimed at whole genome sequencing for variant tracking and identification, are still challenging due to low target concentration, complex microbial and chemical background, and lack of robust nucleic acid recovery experimental procedures. The intrinsic sample limitations are inherent to wastewater and are thus unavoidable. Here, we use a statistical approach that couples correlation analyses to a random forest-based machine learning algorithm to evaluate potentially important factors associated with wastewater SARS-CoV-2 whole genome amplicon sequencing outcomes, with a specific focus on the breadth of genome coverage. We collected 182 composite and grab wastewater samples from the Chicago area between November 2020 to October 2021. Samples were processed using a mixture of processing methods reflecting different homogenization intensities (HA + Zymo beads, HA + glass beads, and Nanotrap), and were sequenced using one of the two library preparation kits (the Illumina COVIDseq kit and the QIAseq DIRECT kit). Technical factors evaluated using statistical and machine learning approaches include sample types, certain sample intrinsic features, and processing and sequencing methods. The results suggested that sample processing methods could be a predominant factor affecting sequencing outcomes, and library preparation kits was considered a minor factor. Finally, a synthetic SARS-CoV-2 RNA spike-in experiment was performed to validate the impact from processing methods and suggested that the intensity of the processing methods could lead to different RNA fragmentation

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

SPRUCE High-Resolution Minirhizotrons in an Experimentally-Warmed Peatland Provide an Unprecedented Glimpse at Fine Roots and their Fungal Partners: Supporting Data

Images were collected using first of their kind, non-destructive, high-resolution automated minirhizotrons (RhizoSystems, LLC) to assess the response of plant fine-root and fungal mycelium dynamics to elevated temperatures after 4-6 years of whole-ecosystem warming and exposure to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations (e[CO2]) in a peat bog where the SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments) experiment is located. We focused on two SPRUCE experimental plots: Plot 10 has elevated temperature (+9°C) and plot 19 is a control (+0°C). Both have elevated carbon dioxide (e[CO2]). Changes in root and fungal abundance with warming were estimated from a timeseries of landscape-level mosaiced images for each plot by measuring the proportional abundance of five belowground classes: fine roots of vascular plants, ectomycorrhizas, fungal hyphae, fungal rhizomorphs, and fungal sporocarps. To examine root and fungal phenology responses to warming, the length per individual root or fungal structure (except fungal hyphae that did not grow linearly but rather increased in areal coverage) were measured per image area of a set of timeseries patch-level mosaiced images for each plot. The experimental work was conducted in a Picea mariana [black spruce] – Sphagnum spp. bog forest in northern Minnesota, 40 km north of Grand Rapids, in the USDA Forest Service Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF). This ecosystem, which is located at the southern margin of the boreal forest, is considered especially vulnerable to climate change and anticipated to be near its tipping point. These data were used in analyses published in Defrenne et al (2021). This dataset contains 5 data files in comma-separate values (*.csv) format and a compressed folder (*.zip) containing 383 JPEG (*.jpg) images. Data files contain landscape-level assessment of belowground class abundance, patch-level growth phenology, and environmental variables (originally published in Hanson et al., 2016 and Hanson et al 2020). Images were collected with automated minirhizotrons and analyzed for phenology. Additional metadata are provided: 5 data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma-separate values (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1975

Exploration for fossil and nuclear fuels from orbital altitudes

A review of satellite-based photographic (optical and infrared) and microwave exploration and large-area mapping of the earth's surface in the ERTS program. Synoptic cloud-free coverage of large areas has been achieved with planimetric vertical views of the earth's surface useful in compiling close-to-orthographic mosaics. Radar penetration of cloud cover and infrared penetration of forest cover have been successful to some extent. Geological applications include map editing (with corrections in scale and computer processing of images), landforms analysis, structural geology studies, lithological identification, and exploration for minerals and fuels. Limitations of the method are noted.

Short, N. M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

SPRUCE Wood Anatomy of Picea mariana and Larix laricina in SPRUCE Experimental Plots, Marcell Experimental Forest, Minnesota, July 2023

Branch samples were collected in July 2023 to measure wood anatomical traits on two dominant conifer species, Picea mariana and Larix laricina, in a bog forest at the SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments) experiment in northern Minnesota. Anatomical measurements were made on the annual rings of those branches with dates ranging from 2011-2023. Wood anatomical measurements include annual tracheid diameter, tracheid density, cell wall thickness, thickness-to-span-ratio, and conduit lumen fraction in both earlywood and latewood. Wood anatomical samples were prepared using a portable sliding microtome (G.S.L.-1 lightweight microtome, WSL) and a light microscope (Leica DM2500). This dataset spans 2011–2023, with full branch-level coverage for 2020–2023, whereas some thinner branches formed only in recent years and therefore do not contain rings from earlier years. By providing annual, treatment-specific anatomical measurements, this dataset can help quantify structural acclimation to global change, clarify links among phenology, wood formation, and hydraulic traits, and improve predictions of forest growth response under future climates. This dataset contains one data file in comma separate (.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: one data dictionary and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

annual tracheid diameter↗

DOE OSTI2020

Whole genome resequencing reveals genomic regions associated with thermal adaptation in redband trout

Abstract Adaptation to local environments involves evolution of ecologically important traits and underlying physiological processes. Here, we used low coverage whole‐genome resequencing (lcWGR) on individuals to identify genome regions involved in thermal adaptation in wild redband trout Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri , a subspecies of rainbow trout that inhabits ecosystems ranging from cold montane forests to high elevation deserts. This study includes allele frequency‐based analyses for selective sweeps among populations, followed by multiple association tests for specific sets of phenotypes measured under thermal stress (acute and chronic survival/mortality; high or low cardiac performance groups). Depending on the groups in each set of analyses, sequencing reads covered 43%–75% of the genome at ≥15× and each analysis included millions of SNPs across the genome. In tests for selective sweeps among populations, a total of six chromosomal regions were significant. The further association tests for specific phenotypes revealed that the region on chromosome 4 was consistently the most significant and contains the cerk gene (ceramide kinase). This study provides insight into a potential genetic mechanism of local thermal adaptation and suggests c erk may be an important candidate gene. However, further validation of this cerk gene is necessary to determine if the association with cardiac performance results in a functional role to influence thermal performance when exposed to high water temperatures and hypoxic conditions.

Chen, Zhongqi↗

NASA NTRS1973

The applicability of ERTS-1 data covering the major landforms of Kenya

The author has identified the following significant results. Five investigators report on the applicability of ERTS-1 data covering the major landforms of Kenya. Deficiencies due to lack of equipment, repetitive coverage and interpretation know-how are also reported on. Revision of lake shorelines is an immediate benefit. Basement system metasediments are rapidly differentiated, but dune areas are not readily distinguishable from sandy soils. Forest, moorland, high altitude grass, tea, and conifer plantations are readily distinguished, with podocarpus forest especially distinguishable from podocarpus/juniperus forest. In the arid areas physiographic features, indicating the major soil types, are readily identified and mapped. Preliminary vegetation type analysis in the Mara Game Reserve indicates that in a typical savannah area about 36% of the vegetation types are distinguishable at a scale of 1:1 million as well as drainage patterns and terrain features.

Omino, J. H. O.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Riverine organic matter functional diversity increases with catchment size

A large amount of dissolved organic matter (DOM) is transported to the ocean from terrestrial inputs each year (~0.95 Pg C per year) and undergoes a series of abiotic and biotic reactions, causing a significant release of CO 2 . Combined, these reactions result in variable DOM characteristics (e.g., nominal oxidation state of carbon, double-bond equivalents, chemodiversity) which have demonstrated impacts on biogeochemistry and ecosystem function. Despite this importance, however, comparatively few studies focus on the drivers for DOM chemodiversity along a riverine continuum. Here, we characterized DOM within samples collected from a stream network in the Yakima River Basin using ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry (i.e., FTICR-MS). To link DOM chemistry to potential function, we identified putative biochemical transformations within each sample. We also used various molecular characteristics (e.g., thermodynamic favorability, degradability) to calculate a series of functional diversity metrics. We observed that the diversity of biochemical transformations increased with increasing upstream catchment area and landcover. This increase was also connected to expanding functional diversity of the molecular formula. This pattern suggests that as molecular formulas become more diverse in thermodynamics or degradability, there is increased opportunity for biochemical transformations, potentially creating a self-reinforcing cycle where transformations in turn increase diversity and diversity increase transformations. We also observed that these patterns are, in part, connected to landcover whereby the occurrence of many landcover types (e.g., agriculture, urban, forest, shrub) could expand DOM functional diversity. For example, we observed that a novel functional diversity metric measuring similarity to common freshwater molecular formulas (i.e., carboxyl-rich alicyclic molecules) was significantly related to urban coverage. These results show that DOM diversity does not decrease along stream networks, as predicted by a common conceptual model known as the River Continuum Concept, but rather are influenced by the thermodynamic and degradation potential of molecular formula within the DOM, as well as landcover patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-scale integration of satellite remote sensing improves characterization of dry-season green-up in an Amazon tropical evergreen forest

In tropical forests, leaf phenology-particularly the pronounced dry-season green-up-strongly regulates biogeochemical cycles of carbon and water fluxes. However, uncertainties remain in the understanding of tropical forest leaf phenology at different spatial scales. Phenocams accurately characterize leaf phenology at the crown and ecosystem scales but are limited to a few sites and time spans of a few years. Time-series satellite observations might fill this gap, but the commonly used satellites (e.g. MODIS, Landsat and Sentinel-2) have resolutions too coarse to characterize single crowns. To resolve this observational challenge, we used the PlanetScope constellation with a 3m resolution and near daily nadir-view coverage. We first developed a rigorous method to cross-calibrate PlanetScope surface reflectance using daily BRDF-adjusted MODIS as the reference. We then used linear spectral unmixing of calibrated PlanetScope to obtain dry-season change in the fractional cover of green vegetation (GV) and non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) at the PlanetScope pixel level. We used the Central Amazon Tapajos National Forest k67 site, as all necessary data (from field to phenocam and satellite observations) was available. For this proof of concept, we chose a set of 22 dates of PlanetScope measurements in 2018 and 16 in 2019, all from the six drier months of the year to provide the highest possible cloud-free temporal resolution. Our results show that MODIS-calibrated dry-season PlanetScope data (1) accurately assessed seasonal changes in ecosystem-scale and crown-scale spectral reflectance; (2) detected an increase in ecosystem-scale GV fraction (and a decrease in NPV fraction) from June to November of both years, consistent with local phenocam observations with R 2 around 0.8; and (3) monitored large seasonal trend variability in crown-scale NPV fraction. Finally, our results highlight the potential of integrating multi-scale satellite observations to extend fine-scale leaf phenology monitoring beyond the spatial limits of phenocams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1973

Dynamics of distribution and density of phreatophytes and other arid-land plant communities

The author has identified the following significant results. Six ERTS-1 images of the Tucson area, Arizona were analyzed to detect seasonal flushes of plant growth. Paired MSS-6 and MSS-5 bulk images were analyzed, using a ratioing technique, on the Electronic Satellite Image Analysis Console at Stanford Research Institute. Because of unique phenology, desert areas, covered only briefly by dense growths of ephemeral plants, are readily discerned. Grassland, evergreen forest, and riparian communities are also uniquely defined by their phenologies. Relatively sterile areas with little or no plant growth are easily discerned as are areas with varying degrees of plant productivity. The ratioing procedure detects plant coverage in excess of a threshold lying between 25% and 50%. The method is flexible and other coverage thresholds can be used.

Turner, R. M.↗