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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Neural Posterior Estimation for Cataloging Astronomical Images with Spatially Varying Backgrounds and Point Spread Functions

Neural posterior estimation (NPE), a type of amortized variational inference, is a computationally efficient means of constructing probabilistic catalogs of light sources from astronomical images. To date, NPE has not been used to perform inference in models with spatially varying covariates. However, ground-based astronomical images exhibit spatially varying sky backgrounds and point spread functions (PSFs), and accounting for this variation is essential for constructing accurate catalogs of imaged light sources. In this work, we introduce a novel NPE-based cataloging method that trains an inference network with semisynthetic astronomical images generated using PSFs and backgrounds sampled from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. In experiments with semisynthetic images, we evaluate the method on key cataloging tasks: light source detection, star/galaxy separation, and flux measurement. A “generalist” inference network—trained with diverse PSFs and backgrounds—performs as well as a “specialist” network even when both are evaluated on the specialist’s particular PSF/background combination. This result suggests that a single NPE network can generalize across spatial variations, eliminating the need for retraining on each observational condition.

astronomy image processing↗
DOE OSTI2021

A probability density function model describing height estimation uncertainty due to image pixel intensity noise in digital fringe projection measurements

Digital fringe projection is a surface-profiling technique used for highly accurate non-contact measurements. As with any measurement technique, a variety of sources degrade to the measurement accuracy of the method. Here, this paper presents an analytically-derived probability density function that explicitly models the surface height measurement error due to inevitable phase measurement error, and it includes the specific case of pixel noise inducing the phase measurement error that ultimately leads to the height estimation error. The accuracy of the model was validated through Monte-Carlo simulations of resultant height distributions subject to arbitrarily correlated pixel intensity noise and experimental digital fringe projection measurements where the pixel-by-pixel height uncertainty estimations were compared to the predictions of the derived model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Series of semi-Markov processes to model infrastructure resilience under multihazards

Civil infrastructure systems are subjected to multiple hazards, including natural and anthropogenic, that disrupt their function or the level of service offered. Estimating the function recovery of these systems (or how soon normalcy of operations will be restored) when subjected to repeated hazard events by considering the inter-event dependencies is an important problem in multihazard infrastructure resilience. However, this problem has been less addressed in the field. This paper proposes a series of semi-Markov processes model to capture the inter-event dependencies in infrastructure recovery when subjected to successive hazard events. Recovery after each new hazard event is represented by a unique semi-Markov process that models the reduced recovery rates and the increased recovery times caused by the system’s incomplete recovery from the preceding event. Two novel formulations of the inter-event dependency modeling, namely Maximal Effects Dependency (considers the worst impact of two successive hazard events) and Cumulative Effects Dependency (considers the aggregated impacts of two successive hazard events), are proposed and discussed. The model is demonstrated by considering the following applications: Three-state system subjected to deterministic and random occurrences of identical hazard events; and Multihazard resilience of a building in Charleston, SC, considering earthquake and hurricane hazards. Results indicate that considering inter-event dependencies in recovery modeling can lead to lesser-predicted resilience, thereby affecting resilience-based decision-making.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Data-Driven Framework for Residential Electric Vehicle Charging Load Profile Generation

Residential electric vehicle charging load profile is indispensable to achieve reliable control strategies for mitigating negative effects on power distribution system due to emerging electrified transportation. This paper introduces a data-driven framework of charging load profile generation for residential plug-in electric vehicles. Real world historical residential charging behavior data is utilized to construct empirical charging decision making model by using machine learning algorithm. A multiple channels method with kernel density estimation is proposed to construct probability density functions for estimating charging duration based on parking duration. A generation algorithm considering parking time and travel demand dependency is introduced to generate residential charging behaviors. This framework is extensible to generate various charging load profiles and simulate varied residential charging scenarios under different number of households and charging rates. This will be crucial for designing and validating residential charging control strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian estimations of orientation distribution functions from small-angle scattering enable direct prediction of mechanical stress in anisotropic materials

Properties of soft materials are influenced by their anisotropic structuring under nonequilibrium fields. Although anisotropic structure-property relationships have been extensively explored theoretically, comparison to experiments requires determination of the microstructural orientation probability distribution function (OPDF) of microstructural elements. Small angle scattering (SAS) measurements encode information about the OPDF, but tools to navigate this connection are incomplete. Here, we develop and validate an explicit framework to link arbitrary OPDFs to SAS measurements. Specifically, we propose, validate, and apply a method, maximum a posteriori scattering inference (MAPSI), whereby the OPDF may be obtained from SAS measurements using a Bayesian estimation method. Using this method, we obtain estimates of the full 3D OPDF for two model semidilute fd-virus (rodlike) dispersions at concentrations that are approximately equal to and twice the overlap concentration. From the OPDF, we calculate its second and fourth moments and compare these to predictions for a dilute suspension of rigid rods and to a recent theory for semidilute suspensions. Finally, we use both the theoretical and measured moments to calculate the stress, both for dilute and semidilute suspensions. These predictions are not only compared to each other, but also to measured values of the shear stress, and point to new insights into the behavior of suspensions of highly elongated particles in the transition between dilute and semidilute behavior. We also use this new framework to provide perspective on the connection between scalar parameterizations of scattering and the OPDF that have frequently been used in the past. Here, the new tools developed in this work provide an unprecedented path toward experimental validation of dynamical theories of rodlike colloids and polymers, and for measurement of nonequilibrium structures and stresses of other complex fluids and soft materials with SAS.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Small-𝑥 Factorization in the Target Fragmentation Region

We consider the differential cross-section for single-inclusive jet production with transverse momentum 𝑃 ⊥ in deep inelastic scattering at small Bjorken 𝑥 Bj , mediated by a virtual photon with virtuality 𝑄 2 . Unlike most studies at small 𝑥, which focus on particle production in the current fragmentation region, we investigate the kinematic regime where the jet is produced in the target fragmentation hemisphere of the Breit frame, and with 𝑃 ⊥ ≪ 𝑄. For a longitudinally polarized photon, we demonstrate that this cross section is not power suppressed in 𝑃 ⊥ /𝑄 and we derive a factorized expression in terms of extended quark and gluon jet fracture functions. Our formula, valid at next-to-leading order in 𝛼 𝑠 at small 𝑥, is akin to the Altarelli-Martinelli identity for the longitudinal DIS structure function. Numerical estimates show that the extended quark jet fracture function is the most sensitive to saturation effects in large nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Crystal Diffraction Prediction and Partiality estimation using Gaussian basis functions

A small dataset with good data quality, useful as a benchmark. There exists a two-fold indexing ambiguity, so when processing with CrystFEL you will need to do: ambigator -o disambiguated.stream -y m-3 -w m-3m -j 72 ambiguous.stream Please check the README file for more information about the dataset. ----- Begin unit cell ----- CrystFEL unit cell file version 1.0 lattice_type = cubic centering = I a = 103.40 A b = 103.40 A c = 103.40 A al = 90.00 deg be = 90.00 deg ga = 90.00 deg ; Please note: this is the target unit cell. ; The actual unit cells produced by indexing depend on many other factors. ----- End unit cell -----

Cydia pomonella granulovirus hull protein↗
DOE OSTI2020

The effects of earth model uncertainty on the inversion of seismic data for seismic source functions

SUMMARY We use Monte Carlo simulations to explore the effects of earth model uncertainty on the estimation of the seismic source time functions that correspond to the six independent components of the point source seismic moment tensor. Specifically, we invert synthetic data using Green’s functions estimated from a suite of earth models that contain stochastic density and seismic wave-speed heterogeneities. We find that the primary effect of earth model uncertainty on the data is that the amplitude of the first-arriving seismic energy is reduced, and that this amplitude reduction is proportional to the magnitude of the stochastic heterogeneities. Also, we find that the amplitude of the estimated seismic source functions can be under- or overestimated, depending on the stochastic earth model used to create the data. This effect is totally unpredictable, meaning that uncertainty in the earth model can lead to unpredictable biases in the amplitude of the estimated seismic source functions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Quantifying Model Form Uncertainty of Epidemic Forecasting Models from Incidence Data

Objective We present a mathematical framework for non-parametric estimation of the force of infection, together with statistical upper and lower confidence bands. The resulting estimates allow to assess how well simpler models, such as SEIR, fit the observed time series of incidence data.IntroductionUncertainty Quantification (UQ), the ability to quantify the impact of sample-to-sample variations and model misspecification on predictions and forecasts, is a critical aspect of disease surveillance. While quantifying the impact of stochastic uncertainty in the data is well understood, quantifying the impact of model misspecification is significantly harder. For the latter, one needs a "universal model" to which more restrictive parametric models are compared too.MethodsThis talk presents a useful modeling framework for time series of incidence data from contagious diseases that enables one to identify and quantify the impact of model form uncertainty. Specifically, we propose to focus on estimating the timedependent force of infection. The latter is a universal parameters for all contagious disease model. Using a machine learning technique for estimating monotone functions, i.e., isotonic regression and its variants, one can estimate the force ofinfection without addtional assumptions. We note that most contagious disease model do satisfy this monotonicity assumption, due to a combination of factors: depletion of susceptibles, implementation of mitigation strategies, behavior change, etc. Comparing the resulting "non-parametric" estimate with parametric estimates, obtained by fitting an SEIR for example, can reveal model deficiencies and help quantify model form uncertainties.Finally, we discuss how ideas from "strict bound theory" can be used to develop upper and lower uncertainty bands for force of infection that acknowledge the intrinsic stochasticity in the data.ResultsWe demonstrate the application of the methodology to weekly Influenza Like Illness (ILI) incidence data from France andcompare the results to fitted SIR and SEIR models. This comparison can be seen as a nonparametric goodness of fit test, providing one with tools to do simple model selection.ConclusionsWe present a novel and flexible model to statistically describe the force of infection as a function of time. Comparing the fit to incidence data of that model with the fit of simpler parametric models enables the quantification of model form uncertainty and associated model selection.

Hengartner, Nicholas↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Multi-Analysis Approach for Estimating Regional Health Impacts from the 2017 Northern California Wildfires

In the evening of October 8 and early hours of October 9, 2017, high winds in Northern California downed trees and power lines, igniting some of the most devastating wildfires the state had seen, and within hours unhealthy air quality impacted millions of people. We simulated these air quality conditions using fire detection information from the MODIS, VIIRS, and GOES-16 ABI satellite instruments, and applying a set of three WRF–CMAQ simulations, one data fusion, and three machine learning methods. We investigated using the 5-min available GOES-16 fire detection data to simulate timing of fire activity to allocate emissions hourly for the WRF-CMAQ air quality modeling system. Interestingly, this approach did not necessarily improve results compared to the baseline case, which used a default time profile. However, this approach was key to simulating the initial 12-hr explosive fire activity and smoke impacts. The WRF-CMAQ simulations compared well with observational data for the October 8-15 time period and tended to overestimate concentrations October 16-20. To improve these results, we applied three machine learning algorithms. We also had a unique opportunity to evaluate results with temporary monitors deployed specifically for wildfires, and performance was markedly different. For example, at the permanent monitoring locations, the WRF-CMAQ simulations had a Pearson correlation of 0.65, and the data fusion approach improved this (Pearson correlation = 0.95), while at the temporary monitor locations across the WRF-CMAQ, data fusion, and machine learning datasets, the best Pearson correlation was 0.5. The data fusion and machine learning results were biased low and WRF-CMAQ results were biased high. Finally, we applied the optimized PM2.5 exposure estimate in a short-term exposure-response function. Total estimated mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure during the smoke episode was 83 (95% confidence interval: 0, 196) with 47% of these deaths attributable to wildland fire smoke.

O'Neill, Susan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shape restricted additive hazards models: Monotone, unimodal, and U‐shape hazard functions

We consider estimation of the semiparametric additive hazards model with an unspecified baseline hazard function where the effect of a continuous covariate has a specific shape but otherwise unspecified. Such estimation is particularly useful for a unimodal hazard function, where the hazard is monotone increasing and monotone decreasing with an unknown mode. A popular approach of the proportional hazards model is limited in such setting due to the complicated structure of the partial likelihood. Our model defines a quadratic loss function, and its simple structure allows a global Hessian matrix that does not involve parameters. Thus, once the global Hessian matrix is computed, a standard quadratic programming method can be applicable by profiling all possible locations of the mode. However, the quadratic programming method may be inefficient to handle a large global Hessian matrix in the profiling algorithm due to a large dimensionality, where the dimension of the global Hessian matrix and number of hypothetical modes are the same order as the sample size. We propose the quadratic pool adjacent violators algorithm to reduce computational costs. The proposed algorithm is extended to the model with a time‐dependent covariate with monotone or U‐shape hazard function. In simulation studies, our proposed method improves computational speed compared to the quadratic programming method, with bias and mean square error reductions. We analyze data from a recent cardiovascular study.

Mathematical & Computational Biology↗
DOE OSTI2023

The influence of physical and algorithmic factors on simulated far-field waveforms and source–time functions of underground explosions using unsupervised machine learning

SUMMARY Characterizing explosion sources and differentiating between earthquake and underground explosions using distributed seismic networks becomes non-trivial when explosions are detonated in cavities or heterogeneous ground material. Moreover, there is little understanding of how changes in subsurface physical properties affect the far-field waveforms we record and use to infer information about the source. Simulations of underground explosions and the resultant ground motions can be a powerful tool to systematically explore how different subsurface properties affect far-field waveform features, but there are added variables that arise from how we choose to model the explosions that can confound interpretation. To assess how both subsurface properties and algorithmic choices affect the seismic wavefield and the estimated source functions, we ran a series of 2-D axisymmetric non-linear numerical explosion experiments and wave propagation simulations that explore a wide array of parameters. We then inverted the synthetic far-field waveform data using a linear inversion scheme to estimate source–time functions (STFs) for each simulation case. We applied principal component analysis (PCA), an unsupervised machine learning method, to both the far-field waveforms and STFs to identify the most important factors that control variance in the waveform data and differences between cases. For the far-field waveforms, the largest variance occurs in the shallower radial receiver channels in the 0–50 Hz frequency band. For the STFs, both peak amplitude and rise times across different frequencies contribute to the variance. We find that the ground equation of state (i.e. lithology and rheology) and the explosion emplacement conditions (i.e. tamped versus cavity) have the greatest effect on the variance of the far-field waveforms and STFs, with the ground yield strength and fracture pressure being secondary factors. Differences in the PCA results between the far-field waveforms and STFs could possibly be due to near-field non-linearities of the source that are not accounted for in the estimation of STFs and could be associated with yield strength, fracture pressure, cavity radius and cavity shape parameters. Other algorithmic parameters are found to be less important and cause less variance in both the far-field waveforms and STFs, meaning algorithmic choices in how we model explosions are less important, which is encouraging for the further use of explosion simulations to study how physical Earth properties affect seismic waveform features and estimated STFs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

FunDiff: diffusion models over function spaces for physics-informed generative modeling

Recent advances in generative modeling-particularly diffusion models and flow matching-have been widely used for synthesizing discrete data such as images and videos. However, adapting these models to physical applications remains challenging, as the quantities of interest are continuous functions governed by complex physical laws. To address this, we introduce FunDiff, an efficient and robust framework for generative modeling in function spaces. FunDiff combines a latent diffusion process with a function autoencoder architecture to handle input functions with varying discretizations, generates continuous functions that can be evaluated at arbitrary locations, and seamlessly incorporate physical priors. These priors are enforced through architectural constraints or physics-informed loss functions, ensuring that generated samples satisfy fundamental physical laws. We theoretically establish minimax optimality guarantees for density estimation in function spaces, demonstrating that diffusion-based estimators achieve optimal convergence rates under suitable regularity conditions. We further demonstrate the practical effectiveness of FunDiff across diverse applications in fluid dynamics and solid mechanics. Empirical results indicate that our method can generate physically consistent samples with high fidelity to the target distribution, and exhibit robustness to noisy and low-resolution data.

Wang, Sifan [Yale University, New Haven, CT (Unite↗
DOE OSTI2018

nbodykit: An Open-source, Massively Parallel Toolkit for Large-scale Structure

We present nbodykit, an open-source, massively parallel Python toolkit for analyzing large-scale structure (LSS) data. Using Python bindings of the Message Passing Interface, we provide parallel implementations of many commonly used algorithms in LSS. nbodykit is both an interactive and scalable piece of scientific software, performing well in a supercomputing environment while still taking advantage of the interactive tools provided by the Python ecosystem. Existing functionality includes estimators of the power spectrum, two- and three-point correlation functions, a friends-of-friends grouping algorithm, mock catalog creation via the halo occupation distribution technique, and approximate N-body simulations via the FastPM scheme. The package also provides a set of distributed data containers, insulated from the algorithms themselves, that enables nbodykit to provide a unified treatment of both simulation and observational data sets. nbodykit can be easily deployed in a high-performance computing environment, overcoming some of the traditional difficulties of using Python on supercomputers. We provide performance benchmarks illustrating the scalability of the software. The modular, component-based approach of nbodykit allows researchers to easily build complex applications using its tools. The package is extensively documented at http://nbodykit.readthedocs.io, which also includes an interactive set of example recipes for new users to explore. As open-source software, we hope nbodykit provides a common framework for the community to use and develop in confronting the analysis challenges of future LSS surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗