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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Framework for Modeling High-Impact, Low-Frequency Power Grid Events to Support Risk-Informed Decisions

Natural and man-made hazardous events resulting in loss of grid infrastructure assets challenge the electric power grid’s security and resilience. However, the planning and allocation of appropriate contingency resources for such events requires an understanding of their likelihood and the extent of their potential impact. Where these events are of low likelihood, a risk-informed perspective on planning can be problematic as there exists an insufficient statistical basis to directly estimate the probabilities and consequences of their occurrence. Since risk-informed decisions rely on such knowledge, a basis for modeling the risk associated with high-impact low frequency events (HILFs) is essential. Insights from such a model can inform where resources are most rationally and effectively expended. The present effort is focused on development of a HILF risk assessment framework. Such a framework is intended to provide the conceptual and overarching technical basis for the development of HILF risk models that can inform decision makers across numerous stakeholder sectors. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) 2014 Standard TPL-001-4 considers severe events for transmission reliability planning, but does not address events of such severity that they have the potential to fail a substantial fraction of grid assets over a region, such as geomagnetic disturbances (GMD), extreme seismic events, and coordinated cyber-physical attacks. These are beyond current planning guidelines. As noted, the risks associated with such events cannot be statistically estimated based on historic experience; however, there does exist a stable of risk modeling techniques for rare events that have proven of value across a wide range of engineering application domains. There is an active and growing interest in evaluating the value of risk management techniques in the State transmission planning and emergency response communities, some of this interest in the context of grid modernization activities. The availability of a grid HILF risk model, integrated across multi-hazard domains which, when interrogated, can support transparent, defensible and effective decisions, is an attractive prospect among these communities. In this report, we document an integrated HILF risk framework intended to inform the development of risk models. These models would be based on the systematic and comprehensive (to within scope) characterization of hazards to the level of detail required for modeling risk, identification of the stressors associated with the hazards (i.e., the means of impacting grid and supporting infrastructure), characterization of the vulnerability of assets to these stressors and the probabilities of asset compromise, the grid’s dynamic response to the asset failures, and assessment of subsequent severities of consequence with respect to selected impact metrics, such as power outage duration and geographic reach. Specifically, the current framework is being developed to;1. Provide the conceptual and overarching technical paradigms for the development of risk models; 2. Identify the classes of models required to implement the framework - providing examples of existing models, and also identifying where modeling gaps exist; 3. Identify the types of data required, addressing circumstances under which data are sparse and the formal elicitation of informed judgment might be required; and 4. Identify means by which the resultant risk models might be interrogated to form the necessary basis for risk management.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

STRONG SOLAR WIND DYNAMIC PRESSURE PULSES: INTERPLANETARY SOURCES AND THEIR IMPACTS ON GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETIC FIELDS

In this investigation, we first present a statistical result of the interplanetary sources of very strong solar wind dynamic pressure pulses (DPPs) detected by WIND during solar cycle 23. It is found that the vast majority of strong DPPs reside within solar wind disturbances. Although the variabilities of geosynchronous magnetic fields (GMFs) due to the impact of positive DPPs have been well established, there appears to be no systematic investigations on the response of GMFs to negative DPPs. Here, we study both the decompression effects of very strong negative DPPs and the compression from strong positive DPPs on GMFs at different magnetic local time sectors. In response to the decompression of strong negative DPPs, GMFs on the dayside near dawn and near dusk on the nightside, are generally depressed. But near the midnight region, the responses of GMF are very diverse, being either positive or negative. For part of the events when GOES is located at the midnight sector, the GMF is found to abnormally increase as the result of magnetospheric decompression caused by negative DPPs. It is known that under certain conditions magnetic depression of nightside GMFs can be caused by the impact of positive DPPs. Here, we find that a stronger pressure enhancement may have a higher probability of producing the exceptional depression of GMF at the midnight region. Statistically, both the decompression effect of strong negative DPPs and the compression effect of strong positive DPPs depend on the magnetic local time, which are stronger at the noon sector.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Geomagnetic Induced Current Neutral Blocking Devices on Distance Relays in Sub-transmission Networks with IBR

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) can flow through transmission lines during geomagnetic disturbances, such as solar flares or coronal mass ejections. These currents can cause problems like transformer saturation and equipment damage. The most common method of mitigating GICs involves installing GIC neutral blocking devices (NBDs) in transformer neutrals. However, the wide application of capacitive GIC blocking devices may have unintended adverse effects on other devices, such as distance protection relays. As the number of inverter-based resources being connected to the transmission and sub-transmission systems increases, the likelihood of a sub-transmission line protected by a distance relay connected to a transformer with NBDs is increasing. Therefore, distance relays fed by IBRs and transmission lines with GIC-NBDs must be studied. This paper studies the effect of GIC-NBDs on a 69kV sub-transmission line of various lengths fed by a 25 MVA IBR and synchronous source. This work focused on the behavior of the GIC-NBDs using the measured apparent phase-to-ground and phase-to-phase impedance calculated by the relay and the source impedance ratio (SIR) during various electrical faults.

Patel, Trupal R [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL↗
DOE OSTI2017

Foreshock wave interaction with the magnetopause: Signatures of mode conversion

Our previous hybrid simulation under a radial interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and a supercritical solar wind Mach number has shown that foreshock compressional waves originated from the quasi–parallel (Q–∥) shock are mode converted to kinetic Alfvén waves (KAWs) at the Alfvén resonance surface of the subsolar magnetopause. In this paper, three–dimensional global dayside mode conversion is investigated for cases under various solar wind conditions using the global hybrid model. The global patterns and propagations of KAWs are distinguished and presented. Under a near–critical Mach number ( M A =3), KAW structures due to mode conversion exhibit a feature of broader excitation regions in the magnetopause boundary layer (MPBL) compared to supercritical Mach number ( M A =5) shocks. For cases with an oblique IMF with supercritical Mach numbers ( M A =5), the amplitude of magnetosheath compressional waves is larger at the quasi–parallel shock (Q–∥) than at the quasi–perpendicular (Q–⊥) shock. Downstream of the Q–∥ shock, there is a general trend that the perturbations of density ( N ) and magnetic field ( B ) change from predominantly in–phase in the magnetosheath to antiphase near the MPBL. While downstream of the Q–⊥ shock, an antiphase relation between N and B is dominant throughout the magnetosheath and magnetopause except near the shock transition. The compressional drivers are found to reach an extended region of the magnetopause due to the combined effects of wave propagation in the plasma frame and flow convection, leading to a broad region of mode conversion at the magnetopause. Subsequently, the resulting KAWs can be carried to the regions downstream of the Q–⊥ shock owing to the flow convection at the magnetopause. Furthermore the KAWs propagate poleward along the geomagnetic field lines and meanwhile are carried tailward by the ambient flows, and they are more intense in the downstream of Q–∥ shocks than downstream of Q–⊥ shocks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Prompt acceleration of magnetospheric electrons to ultrarelativistic energies by the 17 March 2015 interplanetary shock

Trapped electrons in Earth's outer Van Allen radiation belt are influenced profoundly by solar phenomena such as high-speed solar wind streams, coronal mass ejections (CME), and interplanetary (IP) shocks. In particular, strong IP shocks compress the magnetosphere suddenly and result in rapid energization of electrons within minutes. It is believed that the electric fields induced by the rapid change in the geomagnetic field are responsible for the energization. During the latter part of March 2015, a CME impact led to the most powerful geomagnetic storm (minimum Dst = -223 nT at 17 March, 23 UT) observed not only during the Van Allen Probe era but also the entire preceding decade. Magnetospheric response in the outer radiation belt eventually resulted in elevated levels of energized electrons. The CME itself was preceded by a strong IP shock whose immediate effects vis-a-vis electron energization were observed by sensors on board the Van Allen Probes. The comprehensive and high-quality data from the Van Allen Probes enable the determination of the location of the electron injection, timescales, and spectral aspects of the energized electrons. The observations clearly show that ultrarelativistic electrons with energies E > 6 MeV were injected deep into the magnetosphere at L ≈ 3 within about 2 min of the shock impact. However, electrons in the energy range of ≈250 keV to ≈900 keV showed no immediate response to the IP shock. Finally, electric and magnetic fields resulting from the shock-driven compression complete the comprehensive set of observations that provide a full description of the near-instantaneous electron energization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

HEMP Transformer Defense Through Power Electronics

High altitude electromagnetic pulses and geo-magnetic disturbances have the potential to severely impact the electric power grid by damaging large power transformers and causing severe power quality issues. This impact comes as a result of a quasi-static bias induced on transmission lines by geomagnetically induced currents which saturate magnetic components in the electric power system. This paper introduces the concept of utilizing a h-bridge inverter on the neutral of a LPT to inject a DC bias equivalent voltage onto the neutral side of the transformer windings. This biasing floats the transformer windings, eliminating the effect of the DC current and keeping the transformer from saturating. Schematic diagrams will be presented, along with simulation model data using Typhoon and PLECS, and finally test results from a benchtop hardware test.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Satellite Reentry Predictions During Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Prediction of uncontrolled satellite reentry time and trajectory are essential to avoid damages to human being and properties over land. Reentry time and trajectory are largely controlled by aerodynamic drag and mass neutral density below 200 km. In this paper, using a numerical model of the whole atmosphere, WACCM‐X, and a Precision Orbital Determination software, we demonstrate the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009, during the deep solar minimum of 2009, may cause 0.2–0.3 day of variation in reentry time. The SSW can alter the mass density and composition mixing ratio in the lower thermosphere below 200 km through changed wave forcing and general circulation in the lower thermosphere. This is comparable to the effect of a 2‐SFU (Solar Flux Unit) solar radiance variation on the neutral density. 0.1 day of reentry time uncertainty corresponds to a global shift in impact location, that is, thousands of kilometers distance. For comparison, a major SSW during solar maximum contributes little to reentry time variation, which is predominantly controlled by the solar and geomagnetic forcing. We suggest a few proxies such as O/N 2 in the lower thermosphere or mean meridional wind to account for the lower atmosphere impacts in an operational model. This needs to be investigated in rigorous future work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Characteristic energy range of electron scattering due to plasmaspheric hiss

In this paper, we investigate the characteristic energy range of electron flux decay due to the interaction with plasmaspheric hiss in the Earth's inner magnetosphere. The Van Allen Probes have measured the energetic electron flux decay profiles in the Earth's outer radiation belt during a quiet period following the geomagnetic storm that occurred on 7 November 2015. The observed energy of significant electron decay increases with decreasing L shell and is well correlated with the energy band corresponding to the first adiabatic invariant μ = 4–200 MeV/G. The electron diffusion coefficients due to hiss scattering are calculated at L = 2–6, and the modeled energy band of effective pitch angle scattering is also well correlated with the constant μ lines and is consistent with the observed energy range of electron decay. Using the previously developed statistical plasmaspheric hiss model during modestly disturbed periods, we perform a 2-D Fokker-Planck simulation of the electron phase space density evolution at L = 3.5 and demonstrate that plasmaspheric hiss causes the significant decay of 100 keV–1 MeV electrons with the largest decay rate occurring at around 340 keV, forming anisotropic pitch angle distributions at lower energies and more flattened distributions at higher energies. Finally, our study provides reasonable estimates of the electron populations that can be most significantly affected by plasmaspheric hiss and the consequent electron decay profiles.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Incorporation of drift loss cone effects on the trapping of an artificial radiation belt into LANL's modeling capability

Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed an end-to-end model that quantifies the total ionizing dose that a shielded component on a space asset will accrue due to interactions with trapped beta-decay electrons produced after a high-altitude nuclear explosion. The model consists of three major components: initial trapping, spatio-temporal evolution of the trapped population, and interaction of the evolving trapped population with a space asset to produce total ionizing dose. The initial trapping module calculates the fraction of betas produced by radioactive decay of nuclear fission products that will be trapped in the magnetic field surrounding Earth for at least one drift around Earth. Previously, the initial trapping calculation assumed a centered dipole magnetic field model whereas we know that Earth’s magnetic field is offset from its geographic center and has higher-order non-dipole terms. Both the offset and the higher-order terms are captured in the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) internal field model. In a centered dipole, the electrons that are trapped on a magnetic field line at one longitude will be trapped at all other longitudes as they drift around Earth due to azimuthal symmetry of the field, but the offset and higher-order terms of the IGRF field affects the drift of the trapped electrons and causes some that are trapped at one longitude to be lost at other longitudes. These electrons are called "quasi-trapped" and are said to be in the drift loss cone since they will be lost during their first drift around Earth. In this paper we report on the effect of incorporating the drift of electrons around Earth using the IGRF field on the trapping fraction as compared to using a centered dipole. Here, we find that the new, more accurate, methodology produces higher trapping fractions for bursts above the South Atlantic Anomaly, a region of low magnetic field strength, and lower trapping fractions for bursts in regions with higher magnetic field strength than expected from a centered dipole.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inner Belt Electron Decay Timescales: A Comparison of Van Allen Probes and DREAM3D Losses Following the June 2015 Storm

Abstract NASA's Van Allen Probes observed significant, long‐lived fluxes of inner belt electrons up to ∼1 MeV after geomagnetic storms in March and June 2015. Reanalysis of Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) data with improved background correction showed a clearer picture of the relativistic electron population that persisted through 2016 and into 2017 above the Fennell et al. (2015, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl062874 ) limit. The intensity and duration of these enhancements allow estimation of decay timescales for comparison with simulated decay rates and theoretical lifetimes. We compare decay timescales from these data and DREAM3D simulations based on them using geomagnetic activity‐dependent pitch angle diffusion coefficients derived from plasmapause‐indexed wave data (Malaspina et al., 2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl069982 , 2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl078564 ) and phase space densities derived from MagEIS observations. Simulated decay rates match observed decay rates more closely than the theoretical lifetime due to significantly nonequilibrium pitch angle distributions in simulation and data. We conclude that nonequilibrium effects, rather than a missing diffusion or loss process, account for observed short decay rates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

On the Magnetic Protection of the Atmosphere of Proxima Centauri b

The discovery of exoplanets orbiting red dwarfs, such as Proxima Centauri b, has led to questions of their habitability and capacity to retain liquid surface water. While Proxima b is in a “temperate orbit,” i.e., an Earth at that location would not freeze or boil its oceans, its proximity to a parent star with quite high magnetic activity is likely to influence its atmospheric evolution and habitability. Planetary magnetic fields can prevent direct stripping away of the planetary atmosphere by the stellar wind, but ion escape can still occur at the magnetic poles. This process, the polar wind, is well known to occur at Earth and may have contributed to the habitability of Earth’s early atmosphere. The polar wind is highly variable and sensitive to both ionizing radiation and geomagnetic activity. The higher ionizing radiation levels of M dwarfs at habitable zone distances are expected to increase the polar wind by orders of magnitude and, instead of helping create a habitable atmosphere, may strip away enough volatiles to render the planet inhospitable. Here, we compute the ionospheric outflow of an Earth-twin subject to the enhanced stellar EUV flux of Proxima b, and the effect on atmospheric escape timescales. We show that an Earth-like planet would not survive the escape of its atmosphere at that location, and therefore the pathway to habitability for Proxima b requires a very different atmospheric history than that of Earth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the Effect of the Heliospheric Magnetic Field on Cosmic Ray Muon Shadows

Shadows cast in the cosmic ray (CR) muon sky by the Sun were located using muon data from the MINOS far detector in Northern Minnesota. The shadows were observed independently across three time periods; near solar minimum, near solar maximum, and over the entire 13 year span of the data. A distribution of muon positions for each shadow was then sampled to simulate CR motions near the Sun using the Parker spiral model of the Heliospheric Magnetic Field (HMF) and a dipole model of the Geomagnetic Field (GMF). The resulting particle distributions were then compared to their position with respect to the Sun. Results show that the Parker spiral model is most consistent with the solar minimum shadow and least consistent with the solar maximum shadow, as expected. The simple Parker spiral is more consistent with the data for a harder CR spectrum than is actually present, indicating the need for a more detailed HMF model. Plausible modifications to the Parker spiral model which would affect the overall shift of the Sun's CR shadow are discussed.

Adamson, P. [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2018

Perturbed Input Ensemble Modeling With the Space Weather Modeling Framework

Abstract To assess the effect of uncertainties in solar wind driving on the predictions from the operational configuration of the Space Weather Modeling Framework, we have developed a nonparametric method for generating multiple possible realizations of the solar wind just upstream of the bow shock, based on observations near the first Lagrangian point. We have applied this method to the solar wind inputs at the upstream boundary of Space Weather Modeling Framework and have simulated the geomagnetic storm of 5 April 2010. We ran a 40‐member ensemble for this event and have used this ensemble to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted Sym‐H index and ground magnetic disturbances due to the uncertainty in the upstream boundary conditions. Both the ensemble mean and the unperturbed simulation tend to underpredict the magnitude of Sym‐H in the quiet interval before the storm and overpredict in the storm itself, consistent with previous work. The ensemble mean is a more accurate predictor of Sym‐H, improving the mean absolute error by nearly 2 nT for this interval and displaying a smaller bias. We also examine the uncertainty in predicted maxima in ground magnetic disturbances. The confidence intervals are typically narrow during periods where the predicted d B H /d t is low. The confidence intervals are often much wider where the median prediction is for enhanced d B H /d t . The ensemble also allows us to identify intervals of activity that cannot be explained by uncertainty in the solar wind driver, driving further model improvements. This work demonstrates the feasibility and importance of ensemble modeling for space weather applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting cutoff L-shells of solar protons using the GPPSn particle dataset

Solar energetic protons (SEPs) arriving at the Earth trigger severe radiation storms in the near-Earth space, directly impacting space missions operating at various altitudes. Therefore, monitoring SEP events and predicting the penetration depths of solar protons are critical for aerospace sectors. Building on previous efforts, here we demonstrate the feasibility of using proton measurements from the Global Prompt Proton Sensor network (GPPSn), enabled by Los Alamos National Laboratory developed combined X-ray dosimeters aboard GPS satellites, to characterize and predict the penetration of solar protons into the geomagnetic field. The inclined medium-Earth-orbits (MEOs) of the global GPS constellation offer a unique advantage of allowing simultaneous measurements of penetrating solar protons inside both open- and closed-field line regions. Therefore, the L-profiles of ∼10s–100 MeV solar protons and their associated cutoff L-shells can be determined from the GPPSn dataset, using predefined threshold proton flux values rather than traditional flux ratios. After examining a list of SEP event intervals across solar cycles 23, 24 and 25—including the 2024 Mother’s Day superstorm, we showcase how the latest GPPSn proton dataset (release v1.10), reprocessed and calibrated, can not only be used to monitor solar proton distributions inside the dynamic geomagnetic field for individual events, but also to derive a new empirical model linking cutoff L-shells with several key space weather parameters. This newly developed SEPCL-MEO model demonstrates high predictive performance; for example, predictions for > 30 MeV solar protons yield a correlation coefficient of 0.85 and performance efficiency of 0.67 when validated against GPPSn observations. Results from this pilot study underscores the scientific and operational value of the GPPSn dataset, and this dataset—when paired with machine-learning techniques—can play a critical role in observing and predicting the effects of future incoming SEP events, including extreme ones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Improved simulations of the inner magnetosphere during high geomagnetic activity with the RAM-SCB model

We report that simulating times of high geomagnetic activity are an important part of the continuing efforts to understand space weather and its impacts on humanity. Recent improvements to the Ring-current Atmosphere interactions Model with Self-Consistent magnetic field (RAM-SCB) have been undertaken, with the purpose of expanding the accuracy and robustness of the model during these highly active times. The improvements include a number of changes to the functionality of both the RAM model and the self-consistent magnetic field calculation. In addition, the models have been modernized and rewritten in an effort to make them more user friendly and understandable. The effect of these changes is shown by simulating the day of 17 March 2013, which saw Sym-H drop below -100 nT and included a magnetosphere push-in within geosynchronous orbit. The comparison between the previous model configuration and this new configuration is investigated by calculating a series of metrics for the relation between the observed and modeled Sym-H, as well as the >10-keV electron flux measured by the HOPE and MAGEIS instruments aboard RBSP-B and the simulated electron flux. Lastly, these metrics show that the improvements to the model have increased the accuracy of the model for the given simulation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE MAJOR GEOEFFECTIVE SOLAR ERUPTIONS OF 2012 MARCH 7: COMPREHENSIVE SUN-TO-EARTH ANALYSIS

During the interval 2012 March 7–11 the geospace experienced a barrage of intense space weather phenomena including the second largest geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 24 so far. Significant ultra-low-frequency wave enhancements and relativistic-electron dropouts in the radiation belts, as well as strong energetic-electron injection events in the magnetosphere were observed. These phenomena were ultimately associated with two ultra-fast (>2000 km s{sup −1}) coronal mass ejections (CMEs), linked to two X-class flares launched on early 2012 March 7. Given that both powerful events originated from solar active region NOAA 11429 and their onsets were separated by less than an hour, the analysis of the two events and the determination of solar causes and geospace effects are rather challenging. Using satellite data from a flotilla of solar, heliospheric and magnetospheric missions a synergistic Sun-to-Earth study of diverse observational solar, interplanetary and magnetospheric data sets was performed. It was found that only the second CME was Earth-directed. Using a novel method, we estimated its near-Sun magnetic field at 13 R{sub ⊙} to be in the range [0.01, 0.16] G. Steep radial fall-offs of the near-Sun CME magnetic field are required to match the magnetic fields of the corresponding interplanetary CME (ICME) at 1 AU. Perturbed upstream solar-wind conditions, as resulting from the shock associated with the Earth-directed CME, offer a decent description of its kinematics. The magnetospheric compression caused by the arrival at 1 AU of the shock associated with the ICME was a key factor for radiation-belt dynamics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

The Radical Pair Mechanism and the Avian Chemical Compass: Quantum Coherence and Entanglement

We review the spin radical pair mechanism which is a promising explanation of avian navigation. This mechanism is based on the dependence of product yields on 1) the hyperfine interaction involving electron spins and neighboring nuclear spins and 2) the intensity and orientation of the geomagnetic field. One surprising result is that even at ambient conditions quantum entanglement of electron spins can play an important role in avian magnetoreception. This review describes the general scheme of chemical reactions involving radical pairs generated from singlet and triplet precursors; the spin dynamics of the radical pairs; and the magnetic field dependence of product yields caused by the radical pair mechanism. The main part of the review includes a description of the chemical compass in birds. We review: the general properties of the avian compass; the basic scheme of the radical pair mechanism; the reaction kinetics in cryptochrome; quantum coherence and entanglement in the avian compass; and the effects of noise. We believe that the quantum avian compass can play an important role in avian navigation and can also provide the foundation for a new generation of sensitive and selective magnetic-sensing nano-devices.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Role of Off-Line-of-Sight Propagation in Geomagnetic EMP Formation

The author’s synchrotron radiation based 3D geomagnetic EMP code MACSYNC has been used to explore the impact on pulse rise time and air conductivity of EMP propagation paths to the observer that are located off the direct line-of-sight (LOS) between gamma source and observer. This geometry is always present because, for an isotropic source, most the gammas are emitted at an angle with respect to the LOS. Computations for a 1 kt near-surface burst observed from space yield two principal findings: 1. The rise time is generated by the combined actions of a) electron spreading along the LOS due to the Compton electron emission angular distribution folded with electron multiple scattering effects, and b) radiation arrival time spreading due to length differences for different off-LOS propagation paths. The pulse rise time does not depend on the rise time of the conductivity. The conductivity rise time determines the pulse amplitude. 2. One-dimensional legacy EMP codes are inherently incapable of producing the correct pulse shape because they cannot treat the dependence of the conductivity on two dimensions, i.e. the radius from the source and the angle of the propagation path with the LOS. This divergence from one-dimensionality begins at a small fraction of a nanosecond for a sea-level burst. This effect will also be present in high-altitude bursts, however, determination of its onset time and magnitude requires high-altitude computations which have not yet been done.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗