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Further Investigation of Receding Horizion-Based Controllers and Neural Network-Based Systems

This report provides a comprehensive summary of the research work performed over the entire duration of the co-operative research agreement between NASA Langley Research Center and Kansas State University. This summary briefly lists the findings and also suggests possible future directions for the continuation of the subject research in the area of Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) and Network Based Generalized Predictive Control (NGPC).

Kelkar, Atul G.↗

Exploratory Studies in Generalized Predictive Control for Active Aeroelastic Control of Tiltrotor Aircraft

The Aeroelasticity Branch at NASA Langley Research Center has a long and substantive history of tiltrotor aeroelastic research. That research has included a broad range of experimental investigations in the Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) using a variety of scale models and the development of essential analyses. Since 1994, the tiltrotor research program has been using a 1/5-scale, semispan aeroelastic model of the V-22 designed and built by Bell Helicopter Textron Inc. (BHTI) in 1981. That model has been refurbished to form a tiltrotor research testbed called the Wing and Rotor Aeroelastic Test System (WRATS) for use in the TDT. In collaboration with BHTI, studies under the current tiltrotor research program are focused on aeroelastic technology areas having the potential for enhancing the commercial and military viability of tiltrotor aircraft. Among the areas being addressed, considerable emphasis is being directed to the evaluation of modern adaptive multi-input multi- output (MIMO) control techniques for active stability augmentation and vibration control of tiltrotor aircraft. As part of this investigation, a predictive control technique known as Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) is being studied to assess its potential for actively controlling the swashplate of tiltrotor aircraft to enhance aeroelastic stability in both helicopter and airplane modes of flight. This paper summarizes the exploratory numerical and experimental studies that were conducted as part of that investigation.

Kvaternik, Raymond G.↗

Predictive and Neural Predictive Control of Uncertain Systems

Accomplishments and future work are:(1) Stability analysis: the work completed includes characterization of stability of receding horizon-based MPC in the setting of LQ paradigm. The current work-in-progress includes analyzing local as well as global stability of the closed-loop system under various nonlinearities; for example, actuator nonlinearities; sensor nonlinearities, and other plant nonlinearities. Actuator nonlinearities include three major types of nonlineaxities: saturation, dead-zone, and (0, 00) sector. (2) Robustness analysis: It is shown that receding horizon parameters such as input and output horizon lengths have direct effect on the robustness of the system. (3) Code development: A matlab code has been developed which can simulate various MPC formulations. The current effort is to generalize the code to include ability to handle all plant types and all MPC types. (4) Improved predictor: It is shown that MPC design using better predictors that can minimize prediction errors. It is shown analytically and numerically that Smith predictor can provide closed-loop stability under GPC operation for plants with dead times where standard optimal predictor fails. (5) Neural network predictors: When neural network is used as predictor it can be shown that neural network predicts the plant output within some finite error bound under certain conditions. Our preliminary study shows that with proper choice of update laws and network architectures such bound can be obtained. However, much work needs to be done to obtain a similar result in general case.

Kelkar, Atul G.↗

A Long-Term Space Astrophysics Research Program: The Evolution of the Quasar Continuum

Four papers have been written. One reports on the major study funded by this grant: a pan-chromatic study of the quasar continuum at redshift 3. Two others make use of the quasar continuum shapes to find the minimum total accretion luminosity of the Universe, and hence the efficiency and spin of supermassive black holes; the second shows that the reemission of absorbed quasar radiation alleviates a major problem with galaxy formation and the FIR background. The last paper recognizes the role quasars may play in the initial formation of dust in the early Universe. The major study of a sample of z=3 and its comparison with a sample of z=0.l quasars across the whole X-ray to radio spectrum was completed and accepted for publication in ApJ Supplements. This study comprises the thesis work of Olga Kuhn. The two samples are matched in evolved luminosity, and so should be sampling the same black hole population at different z, and in different accretion states. Despite this no strong differences were found between the samples, except in the 'small bump' region of the optical/UV. This region is dominated by FeII emission, and may indicate abundance evolution in quasars. The lack of overall spectral changes argues strongly against a single population of quasars fading over cosmic time, and for a multiple generation, or multiple outburst model for quasars. A study of the total luminosity absorbed from quasars and re-emitted in the infrared produced two results (reported in two papers): The minimum intrinsic luminosity/Gpc(3) from AGN compared with the measured mass density in supermassive black holes [Gpc(-3)] requires a conversion efficiency of accreted mass into luminosity of greater than 15%. Non-rotating black holes cannot exceed 5% efficiency, while rapidly rotating black holes can reach 47%. Hence our result requires that most supermassive black holes must be rapidly rotating. The second result comes from considering the contribution that the re-radiated quasar radiation makes to the far infrared background (FIRB). The effective temperature of the re radiation is tightly constrained, but the detailed shape (e.g. line emission, range of temperature) is only of second order importance. At least 15perhaps 20-25% of the FIR background must come from AGN. This contribution significantly relieves problems in galaxy evolution that come from trying to use only starlight to make the FIRB. The third paper addresses the origin of the dust obscuration that is so widespread in AGN. The standard assumption is that the dust comes from the normal star-formation processes in galaxies and is drawn close to the nucleus along with the gas that powers the accretion. In complete contrast, using a wind outflow model for the broad emission line (BEL) region (Elvis 2000) as a basis, we show that BEL clouds will expand, cool and form dust as they flow outward, in strict analogy to the stellar winds of red supergiants.

Elvis, M.↗

Exploratory Studies in Generalized Predictive Control for Active Gust Load Alleviation

The results of numerical simulations aimed at assessing the efficacy of Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) for active gust load alleviation using trailing- and leading-edge control surfaces are presented. The equations underlying the method are presented and discussed, including system identification, calculation of control law matrices, and calculation of commands applied to the control effectors. Both embedded and explicit feedforward paths for inclusion of disturbance effects are addressed. Results from two types of simulations are shown. The first used a 3-DOF math model of a mass-spring-dashpot system subject to user-defined external disturbances. The second used open-loop data from a wind-tunnel test in which a wing model was excited by sinusoidal vertical gusts; closed-loop behavior was simulated in post-test calculations. Results obtained from these simulations have been decidedly positive. In particular, results of closed-loop simulations for the wing model showed reductions in root moments by factors as high as 1000, depending on whether the excitation is from a constant- or variable-frequency gust and on the direction of the response.

Kvaternik, Raymond G.↗

Real-Time Feedback Control of Flow-Induced Cavity Tones: Fixed-Gain Control - Part 1

A generalized predictive control (GPC) algorithm was formulated and applied to the cavity flow-tone problem. The control algorithm demonstrated multiple Rossiter-mode suppression at fixed Mach numbers ranging from 0.275 to 0.38. Controller performance was evaluated with a measure of output disturbance rejection and an input sensitivity transfer function. The results suggest that disturbances entering the cavity flow are collocated with the control input at the cavity leading edge. In that case, only tonal components of the cavity wall-pressure fluctuations can be suppressed and arbitrary broadband pressure reduction is not possible with the present sensor/actuator arrangement. In the control-algorithm development, the cavity dynamics were treated as linear and time invariant (LTI) for a fixed Mach number. The experimental results lend support to that treatment.

Kegerise, M. A.↗

An Unusual Stellar Death on Christmas Day

Long Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs) are the most dramatic examples of massive stellar deaths, usually associated with supernovae. They release ultra-relativistic jets producing non-thermal emission through synchrotron radiation as they interact with the surrounding medium. Here we report observations of the peculiar GRB 101225A (the "Christmas burst"). Its gamma-ray emission was exceptionally long and followed by a bright X-ray transient with a hot thermal component and an unusual optical couuterpart. During the first 10 days, the optical emission evolved as an expanding, cooling blackbody after which an additional component, consistent with a faint supernova, emerged. We determine its distance to 1.6 Gpc by fitting the spectral-energy distribution and light curve of the optical emission with a GRB-supernova template. Deep optical observations may have revealed a faint, unresolved host galaxy. Our proposed progenitor is a helium star-neutron star merger that underwent a common envelope phase expelling its hydrogen envelope. The resulting explosion created a GRB-like jet which gets thermalized by interacting with the dense, previously ejected material and thus creating the observed black-body, until finally the emission from the supernova dominated. An alternative explanation is a minor body falling onto a neutron star io the Galaxy

Thone, C. C.↗

Modeling the Swift BAT Trigger Algorithm with Machine Learning

To draw inferences about gamma-ray burst (GRB) source populations based on Swift observations, it is essential to understand the detection efficiency of the Swift burst alert telescope (BAT). This study considers the problem of modeling the Swift BAT triggering algorithm for long GRBs, a computationally expensive procedure, and models it using machine learning algorithms. A large sample of simulated GRBs from Lien et al. (2014) is used to train various models: random forests, boosted decision trees (with AdaBoost), support vector machines, and artificial neural networks. The best models have accuracies of approximately greater than 97% (approximately less than 3% error), which is a significant improvement on a cut in GRB flux which has an accuracy of 89:6% (10:4% error). These models are then used to measure the detection efficiency of Swift as a function of redshift z, which is used to perform Bayesian parameter estimation on the GRB rate distribution. We find a local GRB rate density of eta(sub 0) approximately 0.48(+0.41/-0.23) Gpc(exp -3) yr(exp -1) with power-law indices of eta(sub 1) approximately 1.7(+0.6/-0.5) and eta(sub 2) approximately -5.9(+5.7/-0.1) for GRBs above and below a break point of z(sub 1) approximately 6.8(+2.8/-3.2). This methodology is able to improve upon earlier studies by more accurately modeling Swift detection and using this for fully Bayesian model fitting. The code used in this is analysis is publicly available online.

gamma rays: general↗

Fracture Toughness, Mechanical Property, And Chemical Characterization Of A Critical Modification To The NASA SLS Solid Booster Internal Material System

A modified propellant-liner-insulation (PLI) bondline in the Space Launch System (SLS) solid rocket booster required characterization for flight certification. The chemical changes to the PLI bondline and the required additional processing have been correlated to mechanical responses of the materials across the bondline. Mechanical properties testing and analyses included fracture toughness, tensile, and shear tests. Chemical properties testing and analyses included Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, cross-link density, high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), gas chromatography (GC), gel permeation chromatography (GPC), and wave dispersion X-ray fluorescence (WDXRF). The testing identified the presence of the expected new materials and found the functional bondline performance of the new PLI system was not significantly changed from the old system.

Pancoast, Justin↗

Binary Black Hole Mergers in the First Advanced LIGO Observing Run

The first observational run of the Advanced LIGO detectors, from September 12, 2015 to January 19, 2016, saw the first detections of gravitational waves from binary black hole mergers. In this paper we present full results from a search for binary black hole merger signals with total masses up to 100M solar mass and detailed implications from our observations of these systems. Our search, based on general-relativistic models of gravitational wave signals from binary black hole systems, unambiguously identified two signals, GW150914 and GW151226, with a significance of greater than 5 alpha over the observing period. It also identified a third possible signal, LVT151012, with substantially lower significance, which has a 87 probability of being of astrophysical origin. We provide detailed estimates of the parameters of the observed systems. Both GW150914 and GW151226 provide an unprecedented opportunity to study the two-body motion of a compact-object binary in the large velocity, highly nonlinear regime. We do not observe any deviations from general relativity, and place improved empirical bounds on several high-order post-Newtonian coefficients. From our observations we infer stellar-mass binary black hole merger rates lying in the range 9-240 Gpc-3 yr-1. These observations are beginning to inform astrophysical predictions of binary black hole formation rates, and indicate that future observing runs of the Advanced detector network will yield many more gravitational wave detections.

Abbott, B. P.↗

Supplement: The Rate of Binary Black Hole Mergers Inferred from Advanced LIGO Observations Surrounding GW150914

This article provides supplemental information for a Letter reporting the rate of (BBH) coalescences inferred from 16 days of coincident Advanced LIGO observations surrounding the transient (GW) signal GW150914. In that work wereported various rate estimates whose 90% confidence intervals fell in the range 2600 Gpc(exp -3) yr(exp -1). Here we givedetails on our method and computations, including information about our search pipelines, a derivation of ourlikelihood function for the analysis, a description of the astrophysical search trigger distribution expected frommerging BBHs, details on our computational methods, a description of the effects and our model for calibrationuncertainty, and an analytic method for estimating our detector sensitivity, which is calibrated to our measurements.

gravitational waves – stars: black holes↗

The NANOGrav 11 Yr Data Set: Limits on Gravitational Waves from Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Observations indicate that nearly all galaxies contain supermassive black holes at their centers. When galaxies merge, their component black holes form SMBH binaries (SMBHBs), which emit low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) that can be detected by pulsar timing arrays. We have searched the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves 11 yr data set for GWs from individual SMBHBs in circular orbits. As we did not find strong evidence for GWs in our data, we placed 95% upper limits on the strength of GWs from such sources. At f(gw) = 8 nHz, we placed a sky-averaged upper limit of h(0) < 7.3(3) × 10(exp −15). We also developed a technique to determine the significance of a particular signal in each pulsar using "dropout" parameters as a way of identifying spurious signals. From these upper limits, we ruled out SMBHBs emitting GWs f(gw) = 8 nHz within 120 Mpc for M = 10(exp 9) Solar Mass, and within 5.5 Gpc for M= 10(exp 10) Solar Mass at our most sensitive sky location. We also determined that there are no SMBHBs with M > 1.6 x 10(exp 9) Solar Mass emitting GWs with f(gw) = 2.8–317.8 nHz in the Virgo Cluster. Finally, we compared our strain upper limits to simulated populations of SMBHBs, based on galaxies in the Two Micron All-Sky Survey and merger rates from the Illustris cosmological simulation project, and found that only 34 out of 75,000 realizations of the local universe contained a detectable source.

Aggarwal, K.↗

The NANOGrav 11 yr data set: Limits on Gravitational Wave Memory

The mergers of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) promise to be incredible sources of gravitational waves (GWs).While the oscillatory part of the merger gravitational waveform will be outside the frequency sensitivity range of pulsar timing arrays, the nonoscillatory GW memory effect is detectable. Further, any burst of GWs will produce GW memory, making memory a useful probe of unmodeled exotic sources and new physics. We searched the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) 11 yr data set for GW memory. This data set is sensitive to very low-frequency GWs of ∼3 to 400 nHz (periods of ∼11 yr–1 month). Finding no evidence for GWs, we placed limits on the strain amplitude of GW memory events during the observation period. We then used the strain upper limits to place limits on the rate of GW memory causing events. At a strain of 2.5 × 10−14, corresponding to the median upper limit as a function of source sky position, we set a limit on the rate of GW memory events at <0.4 yr−1. That strain corresponds to an SMBHB merger with reduced mass of ηM ~2 × 1010Mmoonand inclination of ι = π/3 at a distance of 1 Gpc. As a test of our analysis, we analyzed the NANOGrav 9 yr data set as well. This analysis found an anomolous signal, which does not appear in the 11 yr data set. This signal is not a GW, and its origin remains unknown.

K Aggarwal↗

Caltech–NRAO Stripe 82 Survey (CNSS). III. The First Radio-discovered Tidal Disruption Event, CNSS J0019+00

We present the discovery of a nuclear transient with the Caltech–NRAO Stripe 82 Survey (CNSS), a dedicated radio transient survey carried out with the Karl G.Jansky Very Large Array (VLA). This transient, CNSS J001947.3+003527, exhibited a turn-on over a timescale of <~1 yr, increasing in flux density at 3 GHz from <0.14 mJy in 2014 February to 4.4 ± 0.1 mJy in 2015 March, reaching a peak luminosity of 5 x 10^28 erg s-1 Hz-1 around 2015 October. The association of CNSS J0019+00 with the nucleus (Gaia and our very-long baseline interferometry positions are consistent to within 1 pc) of a nearby S0 Seyfert galaxy at 77 Mpc, together with the radio spectral evolution, implies that this transient is most likely a tidal disruption event (TDE). Our equipartition analysis indicates the presence of a ∼15,000 km s−1 outflow, having energy ∼1049 erg. We derive the radial density profile for the circumnuclear material in the host galaxy to be proportional to R−2.5. All of these properties suggest resemblance with radio-detected thermal TDEs like ASASSN-14li and XMMSL1 J0740-85. No significant X-ray or optical emission is detected from CNSS J0019+00, although this may simply be due to the thermal emission being weak during our late-time follow-up observations. From the CNSS survey we have obtained the first unbiased measurement of the rate of radio TDEs, R(>500μJy) of about 2 × 10−3 deg−2, or equivalently a volumetric rate of about 10 Gpc−3 yr−1. This rate implies that all-sky radio surveys such as the VLA Sky Survey and those planned with ASKAP, will find many tens of radio TDEs over the next few years.

M M Anderson↗

Search for Intermediate Mass Black Hole Binaries in the First and Second Observing Runs of the Advanced LIGO and VIRGO Network

Gravitational-wave astronomy has been firmly established with the detection of gravitational waves from the merger of ten stellar-mass binary black holes and a neutron star binary. This paper reports on the all-sky search for gravitational waves from intermediate mass black hole binaries in the first and second observing runs of the Advanced LIGO and Virgo network. The search uses three independent algorithms: two based on matched filtering of the data with waveform templates of gravitational-wave signals from compact binaries, and a third, model-independent algorithm that employs no signal model for the incoming signal. No intermediate mass black hole binary event is detected in this search. Consequently, we place upper limits on the merger rate density for a family of intermediate mass black hole binaries. In particular, we choose sources with total masses 𝑀=𝑚1+𝑚2∈[120,800] 𝑀⊙ and mass ratios 𝑞=𝑚2/𝑚1∈[0.1,1.0]. For the first time, this calculation is done using numerical relativity waveforms (which include higher modes) as models of the real emitted signal. We place a most stringent upper limit of 0.20 Gpc−3 yr−1 (in comoving units at the 90% confidence level) for equal-mass binaries with individual masses 𝑚1,2=100 𝑀⊙ and dimensionless spins 𝜒1,2=0.8 aligned with the orbital angular momentum of the binary. This improves by a factor of ∼5 that reported after Advanced LIGO’s first observing run.

B. P. Abbott↗

Search for Eccentric Binary Black Hole Mergers with Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo during Their First and Second Observing Runs

When formed through dynamical interactions, stellar-mass binary black holes (BBHs) may retain eccentric orbits (e > 0.1 at 10 Hz) detectable by ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. Eccentricity can therefore be used to differentiate dynamically formed binaries from isolated BBH mergers. Current template-based gravitational-wave searches do not use waveform models associated with eccentric orbits, rendering the search less efficient for eccentric binary systems. Here we present the results of a search for BBH mergers that inspiral in eccentric orbits using data from the first and second observing runs (O1 and O2) of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. We carried out the search with the coherent WaveBurst algorithm, which uses minimal assumptions on the signal morphology and does not rely on binary waveform templates. We show that it is sensitive to binary mergers with a detection range that is weakly dependent on eccentricity for all bound systems. Our search did not identify any new binary merger candidates. We interpret these results in light of eccentric binary formation models. We rule out formation channels with rates ≳100 Gpc−3 yr−1 for e > 0.1, assuming a black hole mass spectrum with a power-law index ≲2.

B. P. Abbott↗

GW190814: Gravitational Waves from the Coalescence of a 23 Solar Mass Black Hole with a 2.6 Solar Mass Compact Object

We report the observation of a compact binary coalescence involving a 22.2–24.3 Me black hole and a compact object with a mass of 2.50–2.67Me (all measurements quoted at the 90% credible level). The gravitational-wavesignal, GW190814, was observed during LIGO’s and Virgo’s third observing run on 2019 August 14 at 21:10:39 UTC and has a signal-to-noise ratio of 25 in the three-detector network. The source was localized to18.5 deg2 at a distance of-+2414541Mpc; no electromagnetic counterpart has been confirmed to date. The source has the most unequal mass ratio yet measured with gravitational waves,-+0.1120.0090.008, and its secondary component is either the lightest black hole or the heaviest neutron star ever discovered in a double compact-object system. The dimensionless spin of the primary black hole is tightly constrained to 0.07. Tests of general relativity reveal no measurable deviations from the theory, and its prediction of higher-multipole emission is confirmed at high confidence. We estimate a merger rate density of 1–23 Gpc−3yr−1 for the new class of binary coalescence sources that GW190814 represents. Astrophysical models predict that binaries with mass ratios similar to this event can form through several channels, but are unlikely to have formed in globular clusters. However, the combination of mass ratio, component masses, and the inferred merger rate for this event challenges all current models of the formation and mass distribution of compact-object binaries.

Gravitational wave astronomy↗

Identification of a Local Sample of Gamma-Ray Bursts Consistent with a Magnetar Giant Flare Origin

Cosmological gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are known to arise from distinct progenitor channels: short GRBs mostly from neutron star mergers and long GRBs from a rare type of core-collapse supernova (CCSN) called collapsars. Highly magnetized neutron stars called magnetars also generate energetic, short-duration gamma-ray transients called magnetar giant flares (MGFs). Three have been observed from the Milky Way and its satellite galaxies, and they have long been suspected to constitute a third class of extragalactic GRBs. We report the unambiguous identification of a distinct population of four local (<5 Mpc) short GRBs, adding GRB 070222 to previously discussed events. While identified solely based on alignment with nearby star-forming galaxies, their rise time and isotropic energy release are independently inconsistent with the larger short GRB population at >99.9% confidence. These properties, the host galaxies, and non-detection in gravitational waves all point to an extragalactic MGF origin. Despite the small sample, the inferred volumetric rates for events above 4 × 10(exp 44) erg of R(sub MGF) =3.8(sup +4.0)(sub -3.1) ×10(exp 5) Gpc(exp -3) yr(exp -1) make MGFs the dominant gamma-ray transient detected from extragalactic sources. As previously suggested, these rates imply that some magnetars produce multiple MGFs, providing a source of repeating GRBs. The rates and host galaxies favor common CCSN as key progenitors of magnetars.

Gamma-ray bursts↗