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At least 73 records · Page 4

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelized probabilistic machine learning and uncertainty quantification for computational energy applications

Here, this paper presents the development and demonstration of massively parallel probabilistic machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), an open-source computational platform for parallel finite element and finite volume analyses. In addressing the computational expense and uncertainties inherent in complex multiphysics simulations, this paper integrates Gaussian process (GP) variants, active learning, Bayesian inverse UQ, adaptive forward UQ, Bayesian optimization, evolutionary optimization, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) within MOOSE. It also elaborates on the interaction among key MOOSE systems — Sampler, MultiApp, Reporter, and Surrogate — in enabling these capabilities. The modularity offered by these systems enables development of a multitude of probabilistic ML and UQ algorithms in MOOSE. Example code demonstrations include parallel active learning and parallel Bayesian inference via active learning. The impact of these developments is illustrated through five applications relevant to computational energy applications: UQ of nuclear fuel fission product release, using parallel active learning Bayesian inference; very rare events analysis in nuclear microreactors using active learning; advanced manufacturing process modeling using multi-output GPs (MOGPs) and dimensionality reduction; fluid flow using deep GPs (DGPs); and tritium transport model parameter optimization for fusion energy, using batch Bayesian optimization. These capabilities are part of the MOOSE framework.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Time-series forecasting using manifold learning, radial basis function interpolation, and geometric harmonics

We address a three-tier numerical framework based on nonlinear manifold learning for the forecasting of high-dimensional time series, relaxing the “curse of dimensionality” related to the training phase of surrogate/machine learning models. At the first step, we embed the high-dimensional time series into a reduced low-dimensional space using nonlinear manifold learning (local linear embedding and parsimonious diffusion maps). Then, we construct reduced-order surrogate models on the manifold (here, for our illustrations, we used multivariate autoregressive and Gaussian process regression models) to forecast the embedded dynamics. Finally, we solve the pre-image problem, thus lifting the embedded time series back to the original high-dimensional space using radial basis function interpolation and geometric harmonics. The proposed numerical data-driven scheme can also be applied as a reduced-order model procedure for the numerical solution/propagation of the (transient) dynamics of partial differential equations (PDEs). In conclusion, we assess the performance of the proposed scheme via three different families of problems: (a) the forecasting of synthetic time series generated by three simplistic linear and weakly nonlinear stochastic models resembling electroencephalography signals, (b) the prediction/propagation of the solution profiles of a linear parabolic PDE and the Brusselator model (a set of two nonlinear parabolic PDEs), and (c) the forecasting of a real-world data set containing daily time series of ten key foreign exchange rates spanning the time period 3 September 2001–29 October 2020.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Combining High-Throughput Experiments and Active Learning to Characterize Deep Eutectic Solvents

The high tunability of deep eutectic solvents (DESs) stems from the ease of changing their precursors and relative compositions. However, measuring the physicochemical properties across large composition and temperature ranges, necessary to properly design target-specific DESs, is tedious and error-prone and represents a bottleneck in the advancement and scalability of DES-based applications. As such, active learning (AL) methodologies based on Gaussian processes (GPs) were developed in this work to minimize the experimental effort necessary to characterize DESs. Owing to its importance for large-scale applications, the reduction of DES viscosity through the addition of a low-molecular-weight solvent was explored as a case study. A high-throughput experimental screening was initially performed on nine different ternary DESs. Then, GPs were successfully trained to predict DES viscosity from its composition and temperature, showcasing the ability of these stochastic, nonparametric models to accurately describe the physicochemical properties of complex mixtures. Finally, the ability of GPs to provide estimates of their own uncertainty was leveraged through an AL framework to minimize the number of data points necessary to obtain accurate viscosity modes. This led to a significant reduction in data requirements, with many systems requiring only five independent viscosity data points to be properly described.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Adaptive Discovery and Mixed-Variable Optimization of Next Generation Synthesizable Microelectronic Materials

Design of new microelectronic materials is characterized by several challenges such as high-dimensionality of the atomic structure-composition variable space, formidable cost of directly using high-fidelity simulations for design optimization, dispersity in literature-reported similar materials and synthesis methods, complex physical mechanisms, and mixed qualitative and quantitative design variables that lead to a disjointed design space. Even though machine learning (ML) techniques have been employed to expedite materials innovation, existing methods treat ML and design optimization as two separate processes, failing to resolve the fundamental challenges associated with high dimensionality and mixed-variable complexity. We have developed a ML enhanced mixed-variable material design optimization framework to efficiently extract useful information from existing data in literature and physics-based simulations to guide the autonomous search for optimal materials. Our proposed framework is composed of four computational modules: (1) a natural language processing (NLP) based virtual screening module, (2) classification based concept exploration module, (3) a density functional theory (DFT)-based high-fidelity evaluation model, and (4) a novel latent-variable Gaussian process (LVGP) ML model for mixed-variable problems with uncertainty quantification, which seamlessly integrates with Bayesian Optimization (BO) and achieves superb efficiency through embedded physics-based dimension reduction. Our approach is demonstrated and validated using the testbed of functional materials exhibiting metal-insulation transitions (MITs), with the targeted reversible resistivity changes (∼10^5) near room temperature. At the end of the 30-month project, we have developed a series of new ML techniques using NLP, conditional variational autoencoders, active learning, latent-variable Gaussian processes, integrated with Bayesian optimization. Our project has resulted in new predicted MITs compounds and improved understanding of MITs microscopic mechanisms, which in turn will revolutionize microelectronics science to provide energy-saving solutions. Our research has improved both creativity and efficiency in transforming rare-event discoveries of new functional materials to persistent innovations. In addition to open-sourcing the online MIT database and the classification model, the LVGP open source code has been downloaded more than 15,000 times within two years. More than 40 MIT compounds have been identified and many have been pursued experimentally via collaborators. The research results are published in close to 20 collaborative papers in high-impact journals, such as Chem. Mater., Appl. Phys. Rev., Sci. Rep., among others of design space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

All-purpose, all-sky photometric redshifts for the Legacy Imaging Surveys Data Release 8

ABSTRACT In this paper, we present photometric redshift (photo-z) estimates for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Imaging Surveys, currently the most sensitive optical survey covering the majority of the extragalactic sky. Our photo-z methodology is based on a machine-learning approach, using sparse Gaussian processes augmented with Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) that allow regions of parameter space to be identified and trained separately in a purely data-driven way. The same GMMs are also used to calculate cost-sensitive learning weights that mitigate biases in the spectroscopic training sample. By design, this approach aims to produce reliable and unbiased predictions for all parts of the parameter space present in wide area surveys. Compared to previous literature estimates using the same underlying photometry, our photo-zs are significantly less biased and more accurate at z > 1, with negligible loss in precision or reliability for resolved galaxies at z < 1. Our photo-z estimates offer accurate predictions for rare high-value populations within the parent sample, including optically selected quasars at the highest redshifts (z > 6), as well as X-ray or radio continuum selected populations across a broad range of flux (densities) and redshift. Deriving photo-z estimates for the full Legacy Imaging Surveys Data Release 8, the catalogues provided in this work offer photo-z estimates predicted to be of high quality for ≳9 × 108 galaxies over ${\sim}19\, 400\, \text{deg}^{2}$ and spanning 0 < z ≲ 7, offering one of the most extensive samples of redshift estimates ever produced.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Gaussian Process Enhancement to Linear Parameter Varying Models

Simulation and analysis for modern engineering systems now routinely requires the merging of multiple disciplines, physical-domains, time-scales, and data sets — all at ever increasing levels. These capabilities are especially needed in the domain of Advanced Air Mobility, where rapidly emerging vehicle designs are significantly more complex, while having to be both cost-effective and safe. To meet these engineering challenges, machine learning methods are an attractive option for merging models and data across multiple areas while providing uncertainty quantification and maintaining computational efficiency. This paper examines the use of Gaussian process machine learning to generalize and enhance the commonly used class of quasi-Linear Parameter Varying models for fast full-envelope simulation while also supporting control system design and analysis with model uncertainty. Gaussian process machine learning is selected because it: can fuse multiple data sets, enables an easy trade-off between data fitting and smoothing, provides model uncertainty quantification, scales well with increasing complexity, and does not generally require starting from a large training data set. To demonstrate the benefits of the approach, a robust stability analysis with Gaussian process uncertainty is shown for a NASA reference design of an electric quad-rotor air-taxi concept vehicle with motor parameter uncertainty.

Gaussian Process↗

Sparse Cholesky factorization for solving nonlinear PDEs via Gaussian processes

In recent years, there has been widespread adoption of machine learning-based approaches to automate the solving of partial differential equations (PDEs). Among these approaches, Gaussian processes (GPs) and kernel methods have garnered considerable interest due to their flexibility, robust theoretical guarantees, and close ties to traditional methods. They can transform the solving of general nonlinear PDEs into solving quadratic optimization problems with nonlinear, PDE-induced constraints. However, the complexity bottleneck lies in computing with dense kernel matrices obtained from pointwise evaluations of the covariance kernel, and its partial derivatives, a result of the PDE constraint and for which fast algorithms are scarce. The primary goal of this paper is to provide a near-linear complexity algorithm for working with such kernel matrices. We present a sparse Cholesky factorization algorithm for these matrices based on the near-sparsity of the Cholesky factor under a novel ordering of pointwise and derivative measurements. The near-sparsity is rigorously justified by directly connecting the factor to GP regression and exponential decay of basis functions in numerical homogenization. We then employ the Vecchia approximation of GPs, which is optimal in the Kullback-Leibler divergence, to compute the approximate factor. This enables us to compute ϵ-approximate inverse Cholesky factors of the kernel matrices with complexity O(N log d (N/ϵ)) in space and O(N log 2d (N/ϵ)) in time. We integrate sparse Cholesky factorizations into optimization algorithms to obtain fast solvers of the nonlinear PDE. We numerically illustrate our algorithm’s near-linear space/time complexity for a broad class of nonlinear PDEs such as the nonlinear elliptic, Burgers, and Monge-Ampère equations. In summary, we provide a fast, scalable, and accurate method for solving general PDEs with GPs and kernel methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Unraveling the impact of initial choices and in-loop interventions on learning dynamics in autonomous scanning probe microscopy

The current focus in Autonomous Experimentation (AE) is on developing robust workflows to conduct the AE effectively. This entails the need for well-defined approaches to guide the AE process, including strategies for hyperparameter tuning and high-level human interventions within the workflow loop. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the influence of initial experimental conditions and in-loop interventions on the learning dynamics of Deep Kernel Learning (DKL) within the realm of AE in scanning probe microscopy. We explore the concept of the “seed effect,” where the initial experiment setup has a substantial impact on the subsequent learning trajectory. Additionally, we introduce an approach of the seed point interventions in AE allowing the operator to influence the exploration process. Using a dataset from Piezoresponse Force Microscopy on PbTiO 3 thin films, we illustrate the impact of the “seed effect” and in-loop seed interventions on the effectiveness of DKL in predicting material properties. The study highlights the importance of initial choices and adaptive interventions in optimizing learning rates and enhancing the efficiency of automated material characterization. This work offers valuable insights into designing more robust and effective AE workflows in microscopy with potential applications across various characterization techniques.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Uncertainty based Online Ensemble on Non-Stationary Data for Fusion Science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior due to drifts in the data. The drifts can arise from both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with non-stationary data streams.Online learning can be used to continuously adapt the models with new data as it is acquired. However, traditional online learning can suffer from short-term performance degradation, as ground truth are not available before making the prediction. To address this challenge, we propose uncertainty aware ensemble approach for online learning. We use Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) technique for calibrated uncertainty estimation and use the uncertainty values to guide a meta-algorithm that produces predictions based on ensemble of learners. Moreover, DGPA also provides uncertainty estimation along with the predictions for decision makers. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms traditional online learning approach, and a naive ensemble without uncertainty guidance by about 7% and 6%, respectively, on B-coil deflection prediction at DIII-D Fusion Facility.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗

Uncertainty based Online Ensemble on Non-Stationary Data for Fusion Science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior due to drifts in the data. The drifts can arise from both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with non-stationary data streams.Online learning can be used to continuously adapt the models with new data as it is acquired. However, traditional online learning can suffer from short-term performance degradation, as ground truth are not available before making the prediction. To address this challenge, we propose uncertainty aware ensemble approach for online learning. We use Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) technique for calibrated uncertainty estimation and use the uncertainty values to guide a meta-algorithm that produces predictions based on ensemble of learners. Moreover, DGPA also provides uncertainty estimation along with the predictions for decision makers. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms traditional online learning approach, and a naive ensemble without uncertainty guidance by about 7% and 6%, respectively, on B-coil deflection prediction at DIII-D Fusion Facility.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗

Online Learning of Effective Turbine Wind Speed in Wind Farms

To develop better wind farm controllers that can meet more complex objectives, methods of modeling the wind turbine wakes at low computational expense are needed. Gaussian process (GP) regression offers a computationally inexpensive framework for learning complex functions from noisy measurements with very few datapoints. In this work, an online learning approach is presented to learn the rotor-averaged wind velocity at downstream wind turbines with GPs, using the available datastream of wind field measurements and wind turbine control set-points. This framework can readily be integrated into model-based controls methods because the model a) is updated online at low computational expense, b) assumes a mathematically favorable Gaussian form, and c) explicitly quantifies the stochastic nature of the wake field so that the trade-off between exploration and exploitation, and the uncertainty in the prediction, can be utilized. We show that a GP-learned model can match true values with errors within 0.5% on average, with as few as 5 training data points.

Gaussian process↗

Adaptive Sampling of Time Series During Remote Exploration

This work deals with the challenge of online adaptive data collection in a time series. A remote sensor or explorer agent adapts its rate of data collection in order to track anomalous events while obeying constraints on time and power. This problem is challenging because the agent has limited visibility (all its datapoints lie in the past) and limited control (it can only decide when to collect its next datapoint). This problem is treated from an information-theoretic perspective, fitting a probabilistic model to collected data and optimizing the future sampling strategy to maximize information gain. The performance characteristics of stationary and nonstationary Gaussian process models are compared. Self-throttling sensors could benefit environmental sensor networks and monitoring as well as robotic exploration. Explorer agents can improve performance by adjusting their data collection rate, preserving scarce power or bandwidth resources during uninteresting times while fully covering anomalous events of interest. For example, a remote earthquake sensor could conserve power by limiting its measurements during normal conditions and increasing its cadence during rare earthquake events. A similar capability could improve sensor platforms traversing a fixed trajectory, such as an exploration rover transect or a deep space flyby. These agents can adapt observation times to improve sample coverage during moments of rapid change. An adaptive sampling approach couples sensor autonomy, instrument interpretation, and sampling. The challenge is addressed as an active learning problem, which already has extensive theoretical treatment in the statistics and machine learning literature. A statistical Gaussian process (GP) model is employed to guide sample decisions that maximize information gain. Nonsta tion - ary (e.g., time-varying) covariance relationships permit the system to represent and track local anomalies, in contrast with current GP approaches. Most common GP models are stationary, e.g., the covariance relationships are time-invariant. In such cases, information gain is independent of previously collected data, and the optimal solution can always be computed in advance. Information-optimal sampling of a stationary GP time series thus reduces to even spacing, and such models are not appropriate for tracking localized anomalies. Additionally, GP model inference can be computationally expensive.

Thompson, David R.↗

Machine learning-assisted ultrafast flash sintering of high-performance and flexible silver–selenide thermoelectric devices

Flexible thermoelectric generators (TEGs) have shown immense potential for serving as a power source for wearable electronics and the Internet of Things. A key challenge preventing large-scale application of TEGs lies in the lack of a high-throughput processing method, which can sinter thermoelectric (TE) materials rapidly while maintaining their high thermoelectric properties. Herein, we integrate high-throughput experimentation and Bayesian optimization (BO) to accelerate the discovery of the optimum sintering conditions of silver–selenide TE films using an ultrafast intense pulsed light (flash) sintering technique. Due to the nature of the high-dimensional optimization problem of flash sintering processes, a Gaussian process regression (GPR) machine learning model is established to rapidly recommend the optimum flash sintering variables based on Bayesian expected improvement. For the first time, an ultrahigh-power factor flexible TE film (a power factor of 2205 μW m -1 K -2 with a zT of 1.1 at 300 K) is demonstrated with a sintering time less than 1.0 second, which is several orders of magnitude shorter than that of conventional thermal sintering techniques. Further, the films also show excellent flexibility with 92% retention of the power factor (PF) after 10 3 bending cycles with a 5 mm bending radius. In addition, a wearable thermoelectric generator based on the flash-sintered films generates a very competitive power density of 0.5 mW cm -2 at a temperature difference of 10 K. This work not only shows the tremendous potential of high-performance and flexible silver–selenide TEGs but also demonstrates a machine learning-assisted flash sintering strategy that could be used for ultrafast, high-throughput and scalable processing of functional materials for a broad range of energy and electronic applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Active learning of constitutive relation from mesoscopic dynamics for macroscopic modeling of non-Newtonian flows

We simulate complex fluids by means of an on-the-fly coupling of the bulk rheology to the underlying microstructure dynamics. In particular, a continuum model of polymeric fluids is constructed without a pre-specified constitutive relation, but instead it is actively learned from mesoscopic simulations where the dynamics of polymer chains is explicitly computed. To couple the bulk rheology of polymeric fluids and the microscale dynamics of polymer chains, the continuum approach (based on the finite volume method) provides the transient flow field as inputs for the (mesoscopic) dissipative particle dynamics (DPD), and in turn DPD returns an effective constitutive relation to close the continuum equations. In this multiscale modeling procedure, we employ an active learning strategy based on Gaussian process regression (GPR) to minimize the number of expensive DPD simulations, where adaptively selected DPD simulations are performed only as necessary. Numerical experiments are carried out for flow past a circular cylinder of a non-Newtonian fluid, modeled at the mesoscopic level by bead-spring chains. The results show that only five DPD simulations are required to achieve an effective closure of the continuum equations at Reynolds number RE = 10. Furthermore, when Re is increased to 100, only one additional DPD simulation is required for constructing an extended GPR-informed model closure. Compared to traditional message-passing multiscale approaches, applying an active learning scheme to multiscale modeling of non-Newtonian fluids can significantly increase the computational efficiency. Although the method demonstrated here obtains only a local viscosity from the polymer dynamics, it can be extended to other multiscale models of complex fluids whose macro-rheology is unknown.

Computer Science↗

Sequential Bayesian Experimental Design for Calibration of Expensive Simulation Models

Simulation models of critical systems often have parameters that need to be calibrated using observed data. For expensive simulation models, calibration is done using an emulator of the simulation model built on simulation output at different parameter settings. Using intelligent and adaptive selection of parameters to build the emulator can drastically improve the efficiency of the calibration process. The article proposes a sequential framework with a novel criterion for parameter selection that targets learning the posterior density of the parameters. The emergent behavior from this criterion is that exploration happens by selecting parameters in uncertain posterior regions while simultaneously exploitation happens by selecting parameters in regions of high posterior density. Furthermore, the advantages of the proposed method are illustrated using several simulation experiments and a nuclear physics reaction model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine learning enhanced predictions of ICRF heating: Overcoming numerical limitations via data curation

In this work, we present the development of robust surrogate models for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) and High-Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating predictions in fusion plasmas. Building upon our previous efforts to achieve real-time capable models, we identify the cause of the outliers found using TORIC in certain HHFW heating scenarios. The outliers are observed to be spurious ion Bernstein wave (IBW)-like modes caused by a wavelength control algorithm designed to address challenging scenarios with high perpendicular wavenumbers. The effect arises from the modulation in the perpendicular susceptibility, which can induce sign reversal and IBW-like propagation for scenarios featuring normalized ion Larmor radius λ i ≫ 1. We use TORIC with this algorithm disabled to generate a novel HHFW-NSTX database that is free of outliers. Surrogate models trained on this database, including Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Multi-Layer Perceptrons, and Gaussian Process Regressors (GPR), demonstrate the ability to accurately predict HHFW heating profiles, with regression scores of R 2 ∈[0.93−0.99]. Additionally we demonstrate that it is possible to generalize predictions beyond training data by the use of both RFR and GPR models, enabling the prediction of scenarios previously limited to the original model. GPR models also provide uncertainty quantification, offering insights into model confidence. This work introduces a comprehensive Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification methodology for surrogate modeling, applicable not only to ICRF heating but also to other RF heating challenges and fusion physics problems. Beyond accelerated inference, these models show effective extrapolation capabilities, providing an alternative for addressing numerical challenges.

Artificial neural networks↗

Multifidelity Information Fusion with Machine Learning: A Case Study of Dopant Formation Energies in Hafnia

Cost versus accuracy trade-offs are frequently encountered in materials science and engineering, where a particular property of interest can be measured/computed at different levels of accuracy or fidelity. Naturally, the most accurate measurement is also the most resource and time intensive, while the inexpensive quicker alternatives tend to be noisy. In such situations, a number of machine learning (ML) based multifidelity information fusion (MFIF) strategies can be employed to fuse information accessible from varying sources of fidelity and make predictions at the highest level of accuracy. In this work, we perform a comparative study on traditionally employed single-fidelity and three MFIF strategies, namely, (1) Δ-learning, (2) low-fidelity as a feature, and (3) multifidelity cokriging (CK) to compare their relative prediction accuracies and efficiencies for accelerated property predictions and high throughput chemical space explorations. We perform our analysis using a dopant formation energy data set for hafnia, which is a well-known high- k material and is being extensively studied for its promising ferroelectric, piezoelectric, and pyroelectric properties. We use a dopant formation energy data set of 42 dopants in hafnia—each studied in six different hafnia phases—computed at two levels of fidelities to find merits and limitations of these ML strategies. The findings of this work indicate that the MFIF based learning schemes outperform the traditional SF machine learning methods, such as Gaussian process regression and CK provides an accurate, inexpensive and flexible alternative to other MFIF strategies. While the results presented here are for the case study of hafnia, they are expected to be general. Furthermore, materials discovery problems that involve huge chemical space explorations can be studied efficiently (or even made feasible in some situations) through a combination of a large number of low-fidelity and a few high-fidelity measurements/computations, in conjunction with the CK approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Active deep kernel learning of molecular properties from structural embeddings

As vast databases of chemical identities become increasingly available, the challenge shifts to how we effectively explore and leverage these resources to study molecular properties. This paper presents an active learning approach for molecular discovery using deep kernel learning (DKL), demonstrated on the QM9 dataset. DKL links structural embeddings directly to properties, creating organized latent spaces that prioritize relevant property information. By iteratively recalculating embedding vectors in alignment with target properties, DKL uncovers concentrated maxima representing key molecular properties and reveals unexplored regions with potential for innovation. This approach underscores DKL’s potential in advancing molecular research and discovery.

Artificial neural networks↗