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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Using Flory–Huggins-informed human-in-the-loop Bayesian optimization to map the phase diagram of polymer blends

Mapping the phase diagram of polymer blends is an essential step in controlling the structure–property relationship of polymer-based materials. However, traditional grid-based approaches are inefficient and rely on subjective judgements for terminating the experimental campaign. Artificial intelligence-guided experimentation offers a compelling alternative, especially when data-driven decision-making is interfaced with established polymer thermodynamics to improve efficiency and interpretability. Here, we introduce a physics-informed Bayesian optimization approach to guide the mapping of the phase diagram of a model blend containing poly(methyl methacrylate) and poly(styrene-ran-acrylonitrile). Physical information is derived from a Flory–Huggins representation of the spinodal curve, which is integrated into the Bayesian optimization process as a structured prior mean that acts as a soft constraint. Implemented as a human-in-the-loop workflow, the approach leverages optical imaging of film cloudiness with iterative Gaussian process surrogate modeling and a parameter selection decision policy to identify the composition-temperature conditions for sequential iterations. Convergence of kernel and Flory–Huggins-based hyperparameters provided a stopping criterion, ensuring an objective and interpretable termination of the experimental campaign. The framework recovered the known lower critical solution temperature (∼160 °C), while increasing material efficiency through targeted sampling. This work establishes a proof-of-concept for the application of Bayesian optimization workflows to study polymer blend miscibility.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unpacking model inadequacy: The quantification of silver release from TRISO fuel by considering empirical and mechanistic approaches

Increasing adoption of the proposed tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel for both advanced and existing reactors makes it critical to assess and address any uncertainties and inadequacies of TRISO fission product release models. Model inadequacy stems from simplifications made to the computational model when compared to the experiments. The modeling and simulation efforts conducted using the BISON fuel performance code, along with the experimental campaigns carried out under the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program, afford a unique opportunity to conduct a rigorous modeling inadequacy assessment within the Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. Here, this study compares the standard Bayesian framework against the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly represents modeling inadequacy, in regard to UQ for TRISO silver release models. For this purpose, both the traditional Arrhenius equation fitted to experimental data and the more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model, which considers microstructure information, are independently considered. Applying the inverse UQ process on the AGR-2 and -3/4 datasets revealed modeling inadequacy to be the most dominant source of uncertainty. Experimental noise uncertainty is also significant; however, model parameter uncertainty can be considered negligible. Interestingly, both the Arrhenius equation and the LLS-informed model demonstrated similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For the forward predictive UQ, the KOH framework improved both the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties in comparison to the standard Bayesian framework. This is true for both the Arrhenius equation and the LLS-informed model. In comparing these modeling approaches, both demonstrated similar performance at the engineering scale, while the LLS-informed model expectedly outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These conclusions highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for modeling inadequacy in the UQ process, and reinforce the need for continuous refinement of physics-based models in order to address the modeling inadequacy.

Advanced reactors↗
DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelized probabilistic machine learning and uncertainty quantification for computational energy applications

Here, this paper presents the development and demonstration of massively parallel probabilistic machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), an open-source computational platform for parallel finite element and finite volume analyses. In addressing the computational expense and uncertainties inherent in complex multiphysics simulations, this paper integrates Gaussian process (GP) variants, active learning, Bayesian inverse UQ, adaptive forward UQ, Bayesian optimization, evolutionary optimization, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) within MOOSE. It also elaborates on the interaction among key MOOSE systems — Sampler, MultiApp, Reporter, and Surrogate — in enabling these capabilities. The modularity offered by these systems enables development of a multitude of probabilistic ML and UQ algorithms in MOOSE. Example code demonstrations include parallel active learning and parallel Bayesian inference via active learning. The impact of these developments is illustrated through five applications relevant to computational energy applications: UQ of nuclear fuel fission product release, using parallel active learning Bayesian inference; very rare events analysis in nuclear microreactors using active learning; advanced manufacturing process modeling using multi-output GPs (MOGPs) and dimensionality reduction; fluid flow using deep GPs (DGPs); and tritium transport model parameter optimization for fusion energy, using batch Bayesian optimization. These capabilities are part of the MOOSE framework.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Targeted Adaptive Design

Modern advanced manufacturing and advanced materials design often require searches of relatively high-dimensional process control parameter spaces for settings that result in optimal structure, property, and performance parameters. The mapping from the former to the latter must be determined from noisy experiments or from expensive simulations. Here, we abstract this problem to a mathematical framework in which an unknown function from a control space to a design space must be ascertained by means of expensive noisy measurements, which locate control settings generating desired design features within specified tolerances, with quantified uncertainty. We describe targeted adaptive design (TAD), a new algorithm that performs this sampling task efficiently. TAD creates a Gaussian process surrogate model of the unknown mapping at each iterative stage, proposing a new batch of control settings to sample experimentally and optimizing the updated expected log-predictive probability density of the target design. TAD either stops upon locating a solution with uncertainties that fit inside the tolerance box or uses a measure of expected future information to determine that the search space has been exhausted with no solution. TAD thus embodies the exploration-exploitation tension in a manner that recalls, but is essentially different from, Bayesian optimization and optimal experimental design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Surrogate Modeling with Microstructure-Sensitivity of Viscoplastic Creep in Grade 91 Steel

Abstract To support the development of advanced steel alloys tailored to withstand extreme conditions, it is imperative to account for the mechanical performance of components, while considering the influence of local microstructure on the macroscopic response. To this end, this study focuses on the development of microstructure-sensitive constitutive models for the mechanical response of Grade 91 steel exposed to extreme thermo-mechanical environments. Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogates are used to emulate high-fidelity polycrystal simulations of the viscoplastic response of Grade 91 steel as a function of the microstructure fingerprint (e.g., dislocations and precipitates). To cover a wide temperature–stress domain, two separate PCE surrogates—one that captures softening and the other that captures hardening behavior—are combined using another (sparse) Gaussian process regression model. The resulting constitutive creep surrogate model is integrated within the MOOSE finite element framework to simulate the intricate effects of microstructure, in particular MX-phase precipitates, on a component with a graded microstructure. Surrogate sensitivity analysis is applied to quantify the relevant impact of spatially varying microstructure on the creep response in a test-case involving a Grade 91 alloy with a prototypical weld.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Non -degenerate marginal-likelihood calibration with application to quantum characterization

Here, we propose a marginal likelihood strategy within the Kennedy-O’Hagan (KOH) Bayesian framework, where a Gaussian process (GP) models the discrepancy between a physical system and its simulator. Our approach introduces a novel marginalized likelihood by integrating out the degenerate eigenspace of the covariance matrix, rather than approximating the original likelihood. Unlike approximation methods that compromise accuracy for computational efficiency, our method defines an exact likelihood—distinct from the original but preserving all relevant information. This formulation achieves computational efficiency and stability, even for large datasets where the covariance matrix nears degeneracy. Applied to the characterization of a superconducting quantum device at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the approach enhances the predictive accuracy of the Lindblad master equations for modeling Ramsey measurement data by effectively quantifying uncertainties consistent with the quantum data.

general physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temperature and Composition Dependence Modeling of Viscosity and Electrical Conductivity of Low-Activity Waste Glass Melts

The development of models that accurately relate the properties of a glass melt to its temperature and composition is important for glass formulation, melter control, and modeling the melt flow, refractory corrosion, and production rate. Using a database consisting of more than 4,000 data points measured between 900 °C and 1250 °C for over 600 unique low-activity waste glass compositions, we developed models for the melt viscosity and electrical conductivity. Models based on the Gaussian process regression approach outperformed models based on the Vogel–Fulcher–Tammann equation according to four standard metrics and yielded reliable prediction intervals. The models found primarily linear effects between properties and individual components, except for the effect of the Na 2 O mass fraction on the electrical conductivity. The effects were found to be consistent with current theories on physical processes involved with those properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding Process–Structure Relationships during Lamination of Halide Perovskite Interfaces

Fabrication of halide perovskite (HP) solar cells typically involves the sequential deposition of multiple layers to create a device stack, which is limited by the thermal and chemical incompatibility of top contact layers with the underlying HP semiconductor. One emerging strategy to overcome these restrictions on material selection and processing conditions is lamination, where two half-stacks are independently processed and then diffusion bonded to complete the device. Lamination reduces the processing constraints on the top side of the solar cell to allow new device designs, expanded use of deposition methods, and self-encapsulation of devices. While laminated perovskite solar cells with high efficiencies and novel interlayer combinations have been demonstrated, there is a limited understanding of how the lamination process parameters affect the diffusion-bond quality and material properties of the resulting HP layer. In this study, we systematically vary temperature, pressure, and time during lamination and quantify the resulting impacts on bonded area, grain domain size, and photoluminescence. A design of experiments is performed, and statistical analysis of the experimental results is used to quantitatively evaluate the resulting process–structure–property relationships. The lamination temperature is found to be the key parameter controlling these properties. Furthermore, a temperature of 150 °C enables successful bonding over 95% of the substrate area and also results in increases in apparent grain domain size and photoluminescence intensity. Based on these insights, the lamination temperature of functional perovskite solar cell devices is varied, demonstrating the importance of the resulting bond quality on device performance metrics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hierarchical Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization for materials discovery in high entropy alloy spaces

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful and data-efficient method for iterative materials discovery and design, particularly valuable when prior knowledge is limited, underlying functional relationships are complex or unknown, and the cost of querying the materials space is significant. Traditional BO methodologies typically utilize conventional Gaussian Processes (cGPs) to model the relationships between material inputs and properties, as well as correlations within the input space. However, cGP-BO approaches often fall short in multi-objective optimization scenarios, where they are unable to fully exploit correlations between distinct material properties. Leveraging these correlations can significantly enhance the discovery process, as information about one property can inform and improve predictions about others. Here, this study addresses this limitation by employing advanced kernel structures to capture and model multi-dimensional property correlations through multi-task (MTGPs) or deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs), thus accelerating the discovery process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of MTGP-BO and DGP-BO in rapidly and robustly solving complex materials design challenges that occur within the context of complex multi-objective optimization over FCC FeCrNiCoCu high entropy alloy (HEA) spaces, where traditional cGP-BO approaches fail. Furthermore, we highlight how the differential costs associated with querying various material properties can be strategically leveraged to make the materials discovery process more cost-efficient.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards a Robust Adaptive Digital Twin for Fusion Applications

The development of a digital twin system for fusion applications is essential for enhancing the prediction, analysis, and optimization of complex plasma processes. Machine learning (ML), particularly deep learning has demonstrated strong capabilities in modeling such highly nonlinear and intricate systems. However, two critical challenges limit the deployment of deep learning-based digital twins: Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and data drift. UQ is vital for ensuring trustworthy predictions, especially in decision-support scenarios. Additionally, data-driven models are often sensitive to changes in the underlying data distribution, such as shot-to-shot variations in fusion experiments, which can lead to performance degradation over time. To address these challenges, we are developing an uncertainty-aware, adaptive digital twin framework. Our approach incorporates deep learning models enhanced with Gaussian Process approximations for predictive uncertainty estimation, coupled with an online learning mechanism that enables continuous model adaptation to new experimental data. This adaptive capability allows the data driven models to respond effectively to evolving plasma behaviors and equipment conditions. Specifically, to mitigate the effects of shot-to-shot drift, our system updates itself incrementally as new data becomes available, improving both robustness and fidelity. Our vision is to evolve this data driven model into a self-sustaining digital twin system that leverages UQ based feedback to continuously refine itself and potentially support real-time decision making. This presentation will cover a brief background on uncertainty quantification for ML, our ongoing effort on development of UQ capabilities for ML, our data science pipeline from data collection to model development and analysis and online learning framework for modeling coil deflection at DIII-D. I will also briefly touch upon opportunities and challenges in development of digital twin framework.

Sammuli, Brian [General Atomics]↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Structured Covariance Gaussian Networks for Orion Crew Module Aerodynamic Uncertainty Quantification

In this paper we propose a new approach for nonlinear regression and uncertainty quantification. The method is based on a pair of neural networks which parameterize mean and dense covariance functions of a multivariate Gaussian process, trained together to maximize the log-likelihood of observing the given data. The covariance matrix is made positive definite at every input by construction. We also propose a sampling approach that produces viable surrogate function realizations from the Gaussian process. We call the proposed model a Structured Covariance Gaussian Network (SCGN). We illustrate the use of SCGNs for learning an aerodynamic response surface with built-in uncertainty for the Orion crew module. We find that SCGN provides an efficient and systematic way to learn nonlinear functional relationships and dense covariances. We compare results to a baseline Gaussian process regressor and observe that the SCGN provides comparable uncertainty descriptions with improved scalability to dataset size. The sample functions generated by SCGN are fast to evaluate online and are therefore convenient for use in trajectory simulations. These results suggest that SCGN may be a viable computational method for aerodynamic uncertainty quantification.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Structured Covariance Gaussian Networks for Orion Crew Module Aerodynamic Uncertainty Quantification

In this paper we propose a new approach for nonlinear regression and uncertainty quantification. The method is based on a pair of neural networks which parameterize mean and dense covariance functions of a multivariate Gaussian process, trained together to maximize the log-likelihood of observing the given data. The covariance matrix is made positive definite at every input by construction. We also propose a sampling approach that produces viable surrogate function realizations from the Gaussian process. We call the proposed model a Structured Covariance Gaussian Network (SCGN). We illustrate the use of SCGNs for learning an aerodynamic response surface with built-in uncertainty for the Orion crew module. We find that SCGN provides an efficient and systematic way to learn nonlinear functional relationships and dense covariances. We compare results to a baseline Gaussian process regressor and observe that the SCGN provides comparable uncertainty descriptions with improved scalability to dataset size. The sample functions generated by SCGN are fast to evaluate online and are therefore convenient for use in trajectory simulations. These results suggest that SCGN may be a viable computational method for aerodynamic uncertainty quantification.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning for the redox potential prediction of molecules in organic redox flow battery

Here, organic redox flow batteries (ORFB) are recognized as an innovative technology for the large-scale storage of renewable energy. The redox potential of organic redox-active molecules plays a vital role in their performance. Advanced screening techniques like high-throughput experiment and machine learning (ML) have significantly enhanced organic material performance and transformed the field of ORFB. However, the scarcity of experimental data poses a considerable challenge for ML model development in this domain. In our study, we developed lightweight graph-based Gaussian process regression (GPR) models with GPU-accelerated marginalized graph kernel and hybrid kernel to predict the redox potentials of organic redox-active molecules for ORFBs, specifically focusing on small datasets. To evaluate model accuracy, we created a new experimental database of organic redox-active molecules by the data from hundreds of published papers and assembled previous computational datasets. We also considered some key parameters, such as pH conditions and solvent type, to assess their impact on redox potential prediction. Our GPR model predicted redox potentials with high accuracy across all datasets using minimal training data. The study provides powerful tools for molecule screening and design and delivers valuable guidance on designing training datasets for costly experiments.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

An efficient hybrid downscaling framework to estimate high-resolution river hydrodynamics

Flow depth and velocity are the most important hydrodynamic variables that govern various river functions, including water resources, navigation, sediment transport, and biogeochemical cycling. Existing high-resolution flow depth simulations rely on either computationally expensive river hydrodynamic models (RHMs) or data-driven models with formidable training costs, whereas data-driven modeling of flow velocity has rarely been explored. Here, using the hybrid Low-fidelity, Spatial analysis, and Gaussian process learning (LSG) model, we developed a downscaling approach to construct high-resolution flow depth and velocity from a two-dimensional (2-D) RHM simulation at coarse resolution. The LSG models were trained and tested in an urban watershed in Houston using two different hurricane-driven flood events. The high-resolution (as fine as 30 m resolution) and low-resolution (mostly 1000 m resolution) meshes include 664 724 and 14 536 grid cells, respectively. The results showed that through downscaling, the simulation errors were reduced to less than one-fourth and one-third of the errors of the low-resolution 2-D RHM for flow depth and velocity, respectively. Our analysis further revealed that the dominant uncertainty sources of the downscaled hydrodynamics are different, with flow velocity dominated by the dimensionality reduction error, which we reduced by using a regionalized training procedure. The downscaling approach achieves an 84-fold acceleration in computational time compared to the high-resolution 2-D RHM, making high-fidelity ensemble flood modeling feasible. More importantly, the developed method provides an opportunity to couple large-scale hydrodynamical processes with local physical, chemical, and biological processes in river models.

Tan, Zeli [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2025

Joint Modeling of Quasar Variability and Accretion Disk Reprocessing Using Latent Stochastic Differential Equations

Quasars are bright active galactic nuclei powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the center of galaxies. Their stochastic brightness variability depends on the physical properties of the accretion disk and black hole. The upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is expected to observe tens of millions of quasars, so there is a need for efficient techniques like machine learning that can handle the large volume of data. Quasar variability is believed to be driven by an X-ray corona, which is reprocessed by the accretion disk and emitted as UV/optical variability. We are the first to introduce an auto-differentiable simulation of the accretion disk and reprocessing. We use the simulation as a direct component of our neural network to jointly model the driving variability and reprocessing, trained with supervised learning on simulated LSST-like 10 yr quasar light curves. We encode the light curves using a transformer encoder, and the driving variability is reconstructed using latent stochastic differential equations, a physically motivated generative deep learning method that can model continuous-time stochastic dynamics. By embedding the physical processes of the driving signal and reprocessing into our network, we achieve a model that is more robust and interpretable. We demonstrate that our model outperforms a Gaussian process regression baseline and can infer accretion disk parameters and time delays between wave bands, even for out-of-distribution driving signals. Our approach provides a powerful framework that can be adapted to solve other inverse problems in multivariate time series.

Fagin, Joshua [City Univ. of New York (CUNY), NY (↗
NASA NTRS1991

Simulator evaluation of system identification with on-line control law update for the controls and astrophysics experiment in space

A procedure for optimizing the performance of large flexible spacecraft that require active vibration suppression to achieve required performance is presented. The procedure is to conduct on-orbit testing and system identification followed by a control system design. It is applied via simulation to a spacecraft configuration currently being considered for flight test by NASA - the Controls, Astrophysics, and Structures Experiment in Space (CASES). The system simulator is based on a NASTRAN finite element structural model. A finite number of modes is used to represent the structural dynamics. The system simulator also includes models of the electronics, actuators, sensors, the digital controller, and the internal and external disturbances. Nonlinearities caused by quantization are included in the study to examine tolerance of the procedure to modelling errors. Disturbance and sensor noise is modelled as a Gaussian process. For system identification, the system is excited using sinusoidal inputs at the resonant frequencies of the structure using each actuator. Mode shapes, frequencies, and damping ratios are identified from the unforced response sensor data after each excitation. Then, the excitation data is used to identify the actuator influence coefficients. The results of the individual parameter identification analyses are assembled into an aggregate system model. The control design is accomplished based only on the identified model using multi-input/output linear quadratic Gaussian theory. Its performance is evaluated based on time-to-damp as compared with the uncontrolled structure.

Montgomery, Raymond C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deconvoluting thermomechanical effects in X-ray diffraction data using machine learning

X-ray diffraction is ideal for probing the sub-surface state during complex or rapid thermomechanical loading of crystalline materials. However, challenges arise as the size of diffraction volumes increases due to spatial broadening and because of the inability to deconvolute the effects of different lattice deformation mechanisms. Here, we present a novel approach that uses combinations of physics-based modeling and machine learning to deconvolve thermal and mechanical elastic strains for diffraction data analysis. The method builds on a previous effort to extract thermal strain distribution information from diffraction data. The new approach is applied to extract the evolution of the thermomechanical state during laser melting of an Inconel 625 wall specimen which produces significant residual stress upon cooling. A combination of heat transfer and fluid flow, elasto-plasticity and X-ray diffraction simulations is used to generate training data for machine-learning (Gaussian process regression, GPR) models that map diffracted intensity distributions to underlying thermomechanical strain fields. First-principles density functional theory is used to determine accurate temperature-dependent thermal expansion and elastic stiffness used for elasto-plasticity modeling. The trained GPR models are found to be capable of deconvoluting the effects of thermal and mechanical strains, in addition to providing information about underlying strain distributions, even from complex diffraction patterns with irregularly shaped peaks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗