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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Data Science Model for Detecting Intelligent Malware

This study focused on developing a robust artificial intelligence (AI) model capable of detecting and characterizing advanced malware in Internet of Things (IoT) devices using network data. By analyzing network traffic with various machine learning (ML) models, our AI model can identify and characterize malicious activities to significantly improve malware detection accuracy and reliability as compared to traditional methods. The developed AI/ML model was trained using network data from IoT devices, leveraging classifiers such as Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, AdaBoost, and others to optimize detection performance. This project demonstrates a scalable framework for real-time malware detection and characterization in IoT networks, capable of identifying infected devices and facilitating the necessary steps to remove or isolate them, thereby preventing further infections. Although digital twin (DT) integration is not yet implemented in the current model, it represents a promising future enhancement. By creating a virtual replica of physical IoT devices, DT technology would allow for real-time monitoring and analysis without directly accessing operational technology, thus reducing the risk of compromising or reducing the performance of actual devices. This integration would further enhance the security of IoT ecosystems, combining AI technology to better flag and detect indications of malware-infected devices within a nuclear system environment.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

An ML-based terrestrial data fusion and augmentation framework to enable advanced understanding of the terrestrial carbon and water interactions

Soil moisture is essential to the terrestrial carbon and water cycles and land–atmosphere interactions. There are various types of soil moisture data, and each type has the distinct spatiotemporal strengths and limitations, depending on the diverse applications and retrieval methodologies of different data types (Li et al., in review; The PNNL-82151 FY23 Report). However, the limitations of different soil moisture data in terms of accuracy and spatiotemporal coverage hinder our ability to further understand the soil moisture dynamics across scales. To have a gap free soil moisture data product with a fine spatiotemporal coverage and vertical profiles, we train extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models by using (1) in-situ soil moisture measurements from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN), (2) soil moisture from the ECMWF reanalysis (ERA) at the 9 km and sub-daily spatiotemporal resolution, (3) the Daymet meteorological fields, and (4) data products that characterize surface conditions, including soil texture, organic content, topography, vegetation type, and rooting depth. We use the trained XGBoost models that have consistent performance across seven soil layers, i.e., 0–5 cm, 5–10 cm, 10–20 cm, 20–40 cm, 40–60 cm, 60–100 cm, and 100–200 cm, and the gridded model predictors to generate a soil moisture data at the 1 km and daily spatiotemporal resolution for the Continental United States (CONUS) from 2001–2020. This dataset can be broadly used for Earth system model benchmark, monitoring extreme weathers, making informed decisions regarding agriculture, water resource management, climate change mitigation, and ecosystem preservation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving North American Wildfire Prediction by Integrating a Machine-Learning Fire Model in a Land Surface Model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integration of LIBS with Machine Learning for Real-Time Monitoring of Feedstock in H 2 Gasification Applications

This project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) – Office of Fossil Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032177, aimed to assess the feasibility of an integrated Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) system with advanced machine learning (ML) models for real-time characterization and potential control of hydrogen gasifiers running on waste materials as feedstocks. This was a multidisciplinary effort that encompassed the acquisition and standardized analysis of individual and blended feedstocks—comprising biomass, coal waste, and plastic waste, followed by the development of a dynamic LIBS bench system for material sample analysis and development of predictive ML models. Comprehensive laboratory testing enabled the creation of a robust elemental dataset that served as the foundation for ML model training. Techniques such as Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Regression, and Neural Networks were employed to predict key feedstock properties, including higher heating value (HHV), moisture content, thermal conductivity, and ash composition with high accuracy. The results were validated against experimental data and demonstrated strong potential for real-time application in gasifier control systems. The project concluded with a study on the integration of the LIBS+ML approach for gasifier control and a techno-economic analysis of the implementation of the approach into hydrogen (H 2 ) gasification systems. Dissemination of results was carried out at a DOE meeting. This work establishes a scalable framework for automated, in-line feedstock quality assessment, offering significant implications for process optimization and emissions reduction in hydrogen production.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulated wildfire burned area over the CONUS during 2001-2020

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

Liu, Ye↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine-learning based approach to examine ecological processes influencing the diversity of riverine dissolved organic matter composition

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) assemblages in freshwater rivers are formed from mixtures of simple to complex compounds that are highly variable across time and space. These mixtures largely form due to the environmental heterogeneity of river networks and the contribution of diverse allochthonous and autochthonous DOM sources. Most studies are, however, confined to local and regional scales, which precludes an understanding of how these mixtures arise at large, e.g., continental, spatial scales. The processes contributing to these mixtures are also difficult to study because of the complex interactions between various environmental factors and DOM. Here we propose the use of machine learning (ML) approaches to identify ecological processes contributing toward mixtures of DOM at a continental-scale. We related a dataset that characterized the molecular composition of DOM from river water and sediment with Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry to explanatory physicochemical variables such as nutrient concentrations and stable water isotopes ( 2 H and 18 O). Using unsupervised ML, distinctive clusters for sediment and water samples were identified, with unique molecular compositions influenced by environmental factors like terrestrial input and microbial activity. Sediment clusters showed a higher proportion of protein-like and unclassified compounds than water clusters, while water clusters exhibited a more diversified chemical composition. We then applied a supervised ML approach, involving a two-stage use of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. In the first stage, SHAP values were obtained and used to identify key physicochemical variables. These parameters were employed to train models using both the default and subsequently tuned hyperparameters of the Histogram-based Gradient Boosting (HGB) algorithm. The supervised ML approach, using HGB and SHAP values, highlighted complex relationships between environmental factors and DOM diversity, in particular the existence of dams upstream, precipitation events, and other watershed characteristics were important in predicting higher chemical diversity in DOM. Our data-driven approach can now be used more generally to reveal the interplay between physical, chemical, and biological factors in determining the diversity of DOM in other ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Evaluation of Machine Learning Techniques for Isotope Identification Contextualized by Training and Testing Spectral Similarity

Precise gamma-ray spectral analysis is crucial in high-stakes applications, such as nuclear security. Research efforts toward implementing machine learning (ML) approaches for accurate analysis are limited by the resemblance of the training data to the testing scenarios. The underlying spectral shape of synthetic data may not perfectly reflect measured configurations, and measurement campaigns may be limited by resource constraints. Consequently, ML algorithms for isotope identification must maintain accurate classification performance under domain shifts between the training and testing data. To this end, four different classifiers (Ridge, Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, and Multilayer Perceptron) were trained on the same dataset and evaluated on twelve other datasets with varying standoff distances, shielding, and background configurations. A tailored statistical approach was introduced to quantify the similarity between the training and testing configurations, which was then related to the predictive performance. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests revealed that the OVR-wrapped XGB significantly outperformed the other algorithms, with confidence levels of 99.0% or above for the 133Ba, 60Co, 137Cs, and 152Eu sources. The findings from this work are significant as they outline techniques to promote the development of robust ML-based approaches for isotope identification.

domain adaptation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Application of Machine Learning and Data Augmentation Algorithms in the Discovery of Metal Hydrides for Hydrogen Storage

The development of efficient and sustainable hydrogen storage materials is a key challenge for realizing hydrogen as a clean and flexible energy carrier. Among various options, metal hydrides offer high volumetric storage density and operational safety, yet their application is limited by thermodynamic, kinetic, and compositional constraints. In this work, we investigate the potential of machine learning (ML) to predict key thermodynamic properties—equilibrium plateau pressure, enthalpy, and entropy of hydride formation—based solely on alloy composition using Magpie-generated descriptors. We significantly expand an existing experimental dataset from ~400 to 806 entries and assess the impact of dataset size and data augmentation, using the PADRE algorithm, on model performance. Models including Support Vector Machines and Gradient Boosted Random Forests were trained and optimized via grid search and cross-validation. Results show a marked improvement in predictive accuracy with increased dataset size, while data augmentation benefits are limited to smaller datasets and do not improve accuracy in underrepresented pressure regimes. Furthermore, clustering and cross-validation analyses highlight the limited generalizability of models across different material classes, though high accuracy is achieved when training and testing within a single hydride family (e.g., AB2). The study demonstrates the viability and limitations of ML for accelerating hydride discovery, emphasizing the importance of dataset diversity and representation for robust property prediction.

augmentation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Best estimate of the planetary boundary layer height from multiple remote sensing measurements

Remote sensing measurements have been widely used to estimate the planetary boundary layer height (PBLHT). Each remote sensing approach offers unique strengths and faces different limitations. In this study, we use machine learning (ML) methods to produce a best-estimate PBLHT (PBLHT-BE-ML) by integrating four PBLHT estimates derived from remote sensing measurements at the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory. Three ML models – random forest (RF) classifier, RF regressor, and light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM) – were trained on a dataset from 2017 to 2023 that included radiosonde, various remote sensing PBLHT estimates, and atmospheric meteorological conditions. Evaluations indicated that PBLHT-BE-ML from all three models improved alignment with the PBLHT derived from radiosonde data (PBLHT-SONDE), with LightGBM demonstrating the highest accuracy under both stable and unstable boundary layer conditions. Feature analysis revealed that the most influential input features at the SGP site were the PBLHT estimates derived from (a) potential temperature profiles retrieved using Raman lidar (RL) and atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) measurements (PBLHT-THERMO), (b) vertical velocity variance profiles from Doppler lidar (PBLHT-DL), and (c) aerosol backscatter profiles from micropulse lidar (PBLHT-MPL). The trained models were then used to predict PBLHT-BE-ML at a temporal resolution of 10 min, effectively capturing the diurnal evolution of PBLHT and its significant seasonal variations, with the largest diurnal variation observed over summer at the SGP site. We applied these trained models to data from the ARM Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) field campaign (EPC), where the PBLHT-BE-ML, particularly with the LightGBM model, demonstrated improved accuracy against PBLHT-SONDE. Analyses of model performance at both the SGP and EPC sites suggest that expanding the training dataset to include various surface types, such as ocean and ice-covered areas, could further enhance ML model performance for PBLHT estimation across varied geographic regions.

Zhang, Damao [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2025

ELM2.1-XGBfire1.0: improving wildfire prediction by integrating a machine learning fire model in a land surface model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth system models (ESMs). Alternatively, fire models based on machine learning (ML), which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0) that integrates an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran–C–Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001–2019, the ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0 outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. The ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0 has proven to be a new tool for studying vegetation–fire interactions and, more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate–fire feedback, working as an active component of E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling Fire Severity in Black Spruce Stands in the Alaskan Boreal Forest Using Spectral and Non-Spectral Geospatial Data

Biomass burning in the Alaskan interior is already a major disturbance and source of carbon emissions, and is likely to increase in response to the warming and drying predicted for the future climate. In addition to quantifying changes to the spatial and temporal patterns of burned areas, observing variations in severity is the key to studying the impact of changes to the fire regime on carbon cycling, energy budgets, and post-fire succession. Remote sensing indices of fire severity have not consistently been well-correlated with in situ observations of important severity characteristics in Alaskan black spruce stands, including depth of burning of the surface organic layer. The incorporation of ancillary data such as in situ observations and GIS layers with spectral data from Landsat TM/ETM+ greatly improved efforts to map the reduction of the organic layer in burned black spruce stands. Using a regression tree approach, the R2 of the organic layer depth reduction models was 0.60 and 0.55 (pb0.01) for relative and absolute depth reduction, respectively. All of the independent variables used by the regression tree to estimate burn depth can be obtained independently of field observations. Implementation of a gradient boosting algorithm improved the R2 to 0.80 and 0.79 (pb0.01) for absolute and relative organic layer depth reduction, respectively. Independent variables used in the regression tree model of burn depth included topographic position, remote sensing indices related to soil and vegetation characteristics, timing of the fire event, and meteorological data. Post-fire organic layer depth characteristics are determined for a large (N200,000 ha) fire to identify areas that are potentially vulnerable to a shift in post-fire succession. This application showed that 12% of this fire event experienced fire severe enough to support a change in post-fire succession. We conclude that non-parametric models and ancillary data are useful in the modeling of the surface organic layer fire depth. Because quantitative differences in post-fire surface characteristics do not directly influence spectral properties, these modeling techniques provide better information than the use of remote sensing data alone.

Barrett, K.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Psychophysiological Sensing and State Classification for Attention Management in Commercial Aviation

Attention-related human performance limiting states (AHPLS) can cause pilots to lose airplane state awareness (ASA), and their detection is important to improving commercial aviation safety. The Commercial Aviation Safety Team found that the majority of recent international commercial aviation accidents attributable to loss of control inflight involved flight crew loss of airplane state awareness, and that distraction of various forms was involved in all of them. Research on AHPLS, including channelized attention, diverted attention, startle / surprise, and confirmation bias, has been recommended in a Safety Enhancement (SE) entitled "Training for Attention Management." To accomplish the detection of such cognitive and psychophysiological states, a broad suite of sensors has been implemented to simultaneously measure their physiological markers during high fidelity flight simulation human subject studies. Pilot participants were asked to perform benchmark tasks and experimental flight scenarios designed to induce AHPLS. Pattern classification was employed to distinguish the AHPLS induced by the benchmark tasks. Unimodal classification using pre-processed electroencephalography (EEG) signals as input features to extreme gradient boosting, random forest and deep neural network multiclass classifiers was implemented. Multi-modal classification using galvanic skin response (GSR) in addition to the same EEG signals and using the same types of classifiers produced increased accuracy with respect to the unimodal case (90 percent vs. 86 percent), although only via the deep neural network classifier. These initial results are a first step toward the goal of demonstrating simultaneous real time classification of multiple states using multiple sensing modalities in high-fidelity flight simulators. This detection is intended to support and inform training methods under development to mitigate the loss of ASA and thus reduce accidents and incidents.

Harrivel, Angela R.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Prediction of Cognitive States During Flight Simulation Using Multimodal Psychophysiological Sensing

The Commercial Aviation Safety Team found the majority of recent international commercial aviation accidents attributable to loss of control inflight involved flight crew loss of airplane state awareness (ASA), and distraction was involved in all of them. Research on attention-related human performance limiting states (AHPLS) such as channelized attention, diverted attention, startle/surprise, and confirmation bias, has been recommended in a Safety Enhancement (SE) entitled "Training for Attention Management." To accomplish the detection of such cognitive and psychophysiological states, a broad suite of sensors was implemented to simultaneously measure their physiological markers during a high fidelity flight simulation human subject study. Twenty-four pilot participants were asked to wear the sensors while they performed benchmark tasks and motion-based flight scenarios designed to induce AHPLS. Pattern classification was employed to predict the occurrence of AHPLS during flight simulation also designed to induce those states. Classifier training data were collected during performance of the benchmark tasks. Multimodal classification was performed, using pre-processed electroencephalography, galvanic skin response, electrocardiogram, and respiration signals as input features. A combination of one, some or all modalities were used. Extreme gradient boosting, random forest and two support vector machine classifiers were implemented. The best accuracy for each modality-classifier combination is reported. Results using a select set of features and using the full set of available features are presented. Further, results are presented for training one classifier with the combined features and for training multiple classifiers with features from each modality separately. Using the select set of features and combined training, multistate prediction accuracy averaged 0.64 +/- 0.14 across thirteen participants and was significantly higher than that for the separate training case. These results support the goal of demonstrating simultaneous real-time classification of multiple states using multiple sensing modalities in high fidelity flight simulators. This detection is intended to support and inform training methods under development to mitigate the loss of ASA and thus reduce accidents and incidents.

Harrivel, Angela R.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Accelerated Simulation of Air Pollution Using NVIDIA RAPIDS

Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool to study and forecast the impact of air pollution on the environment, vegetation, and human health. However, the numerical simulation of chemical kinetics is computationally expensive due to the stiffness of the system of ordinary differential equations that describes atmospheric chemistry. Here we present an alternative approach to the computation of atmospheric chemistry based on machine learning. Our training data set is produced using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model with GEOS-Chem chemistry, run on the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) Discover supercomputing cluster on 384 Intel Xeon Haswell cores. This model spends more than 50% of total run time on solving atmospheric chemistry. The data set contains as input features the air pollution concentrations before solving the differential equations, together with some key physical parameters such as temperature and sun intensity. As target variables we define the air pollution concentrations after solving the differential equations. Using Dask-cuDF and Dask-XGBoost on the NVIDIA RAPIDS platform on 8 Tesla V100 GPUs, we generate from this training set gradient boosted decision tree models that can reproduce the simulation of chemical kinetics. We do this on the NCCS Advanced Data Analytics Platform (ADAPT) science cloud environment. Our application takes full advantage of recent advances in Dask-XGBoost, such as multi-node and multi-GPU scaling for distributed training with large data sets. The increase in training data size enabled by this is critical to capture the full range of chemical environments encountered across the globe and all annual seasons.The boosted tree models offer good predictability and show many of the features of the full chemistry reference simulation. Further improvements can be achieved through mass balance considerations and by accounting for error correlations. We incorporate the boosted tree models into the GEOS reference model using XGBoost's C API. This enables a seamless integration of the GPU trained models into GEOS-Chem, which is written in Fortran and optimized for use in a massively parallel CPU environment. We show the benefits of this approach and discuss the potential speedup of this machine learning accelerated atmospheric chemistry model.

Keller, Christoph A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Machine Learning to Predict Joint Performance in Epoxy Composites Based on Process Parameters

Polymer matrix composites are gaining popularity in the aerospace industry due to their high specific strength, fatigue properties, and processability. However, based on current FAA certification guidelines, manufacturers utilizing current state-of-the-art composites made with adhesive bonds commonly install redundant fasteners to guarantee the strength of these adhesively bonded composite parts. The number of fasteners in a single-aisle commercial transport aircraft is typically on the order of 105, which reduces manufacturing rate, increases cost tremendously, and reduces the advantage of the specific strength composites provide. Due to this, the Adhesive Free Bonding of Composites (AERoBOND) project at NASA Langley Research Center has developed a novel assembly process to manufacture complex composite parts without the use of adhesives and fasteners. However, optimization of the process is currently challenging due to the complex and interdependent process parameters. To assist with the optimization, four machine learning algorithms utilizing gradient boosting decision trees were created to provide predictions for the mechanical and characterization properties of the composite parts. Approximately 200 random states from each algorithm were tested, and the models from each state were isolated and analyzed based on their accuracy, a validation process, and their feature importance. This analysis concluded that the models created from the machine learning algorithms could accelerate a parametric study for the AERoBOND process by rapidly optimizing process parameters to achieve desired performance characteristics.

Brennen Michael Middleton↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning to Predict Joint Performance in Epoxy Composites Based on Process Parameters

Polymer matrix composites are gaining popularity in the aerospace industry due to their high specific strength, fatigue properties, and processability. However, based on current FAA certification guidelines, manufacturers utilizing current state-of-the art composites made with adhesive bonds commonly install redundant fasteners to guarantee the strength of these adhesively bonded composite parts.1,2 The number of fasteners in a single-aisle commercial transport aircraft is typically on the order of 105, which reduces manufacturing rate, increases cost tremendously, and reduces the advantage of the specific strength composites provide. Due to this, the Adhesive Free Bonding of Composites (AERoBOND) project at NASA Langley Research Center has developed a novel assembly process to manufacture complex composite parts without the use of adhesives and fasteners.1 However, optimization of the process is currently challenging due to the complex and interdependent process parameters. To assist with the optimization, four machine learning algorithms utilizing gradient boosting decision trees were created to provide predictions for the mechanical and characterization properties of the composite parts. Approximately 200 random states from each algorithm were tested, and the models from each state were isolated and analyzed based on their accuracy, a validation process, and their feature importance. This analysis concluded that the models created from the machine learning algorithms could accelerate a parametric study for the AERoBOND process by rapidly optimizing process parameters to achieve desired performance characteristics.

Brennen M Middleton↗
NASA NTRS2020

Advancing Methodologies for Applying Machine Learning and Evaluating Spatiotemporal Models of Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 ) Using Satellite Data Over Large Regions

Reconstructing the distribution of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in space and time, even far from ground monitoring sites, is an important exposure science contribution to epidemiologic analyses of PM 2.5 health impacts. Flexible statistical methods for prediction have demonstrated the integration of satellite observations with other predictors, yet these algorithms are susceptible to overfitting the spatiotemporal structure of the training datasets. We present a new approach for predicting PM 2.5 using machine-learning methods and evaluating prediction models for the goal of making predictions where they were not previously available. We apply extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) modeling to predict daily PM 2.5 on a 1 x 1 km 2 resolution for a 13 state region in the Northeastern USA for the years 2000–2015 using satellite-derived aerosol optical depth and implement a recursive feature selection to develop a parsimonious model. We demonstrate excellent predictions of withheld observations but also contrast an RMSE of 3.11 μg/m 3 in our spatial cross-validation withholding nearby sites versus an overfit RMSE of 2.10 μg/m 3 using a more conventional random ten-fold splitting of the dataset. As the field of exposure science moves forward with the use of advanced machine-learning approaches for spatiotemporal modeling of air pollutants, our results show the importance of addressing data leakage in training, overfitting to spatiotemporal structure, and the impact of the predominance of ground monitoring sites in dense urban sub-networks on model evaluation. The strengths of our resultant modeling approach for exposure in epidemiologic studies of PM 2.5 include improved efficiency, parsimony, and interpretability with robust validation while still accommodating complex spatiotemporal relationships.

air pollution↗