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At least 73 records · Page 4

Machine learning and shallow groundwater chemistry to identify geothermal prospects in the Great Basin, USA

This study discovers various geothermal prospects in the Great Basin, USA based on shallow groundwater chemical (geochemical) data. The geochemical data are expected to include hidden (latent) information that is a proxy for geothermal prospectivity. We processed the sparse geochemical data in the Great Basin at 14,341 locations including 18 attributes. Next, a non-negative matrix factorization with customized k-means clustering is applied to the geochemical data matrix that automatically finds three hidden geothermal signatures representing modestly, moderately, and highly confident geothermal prospects. The algorithm also evaluated the probability of occurrence of these types of resources through the studied region. There is a consistency between regional geothermal prospectivity as estimated by our ML methodology and the traditional play fairway analysis conducted over a portion of the study area. We also identify the dominant data attributes associated with each signature. Finally, our ML analyses allow us to reconstruct attributes from sparse into continuous over the study domain. The predicted continuous attributes can be used for future detailed geothermal explorations in the Great Basin.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Impacts of Lake Surface Temperature on the Summer Climate Over the Great Lakes Region

The surface of the Great Lakes interacts with the atmosphere, influencing the weather and climate over the Great Lakes Region (GLR). However, most climate models were not designed with sufficient emphasis on lake–atmosphere interactions, which could potentially cause model biases over the GLR. To understand how lake surface temperature (LST) affects the regional summer climate over the GLR, we conducted twin experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a spatial resolution of 4 km using two different LST data sets as the bottom boundary condition over the Great Lakes. In this work, our simulations include 10 ensemble members for the summer of 2018 and a single multiyear run for the summers of 2014–2020. Results show that variations in LST influence atmospheric temperature and moisture at a local scale—while affecting the convective environment and precipitation processes over a much larger spatial scale. In particular, an LST that is only 1°C–3°C warmer (depending on the lake) increases near-surface air temperature by 1.93°C and 0.97°C over Lake Superior and Lake Erie, respectively, and increases evaporation over the lakes by 0.23 and 1.1 mm day –1 . The warmer LST reduces mesoscale convective precipitation upstream of the GLR; however, it increases isolated deep convective precipitation and nonconvective precipitation downstream of GLR due to increased local instability and enhancement of moisture transport. Our analyses confirm the robustness of these impacts, which is at least 2 times larger than the model internal variability and is seen across all simulated summer seasons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observed and Projected Changes of Large‐Scale Environments Conducive to Spring MCS Initiation Over the US Great Plains

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are frequent over the US Great Plains during spring. The link between large‐scale environments and spring MCS initiation were well established. Here, historical and future changes of spring large‐scale environments favorable for MCS initiation are investigated using an MCS tracking data set, ERA5 reanalysis, and 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The frequency of Great Plains low‐level jet (GPLLJ)‐related MCS environments is found to have increased by ∼41% from 1979 to 2019, consistent with the enhanced GPLLJ and more frequent MCSs. Comparing CMIP6 AMIP and historical experiments, we find that the observed GPLLJ strengthening and more frequent MCS environments are mainly due to the decadal sea‐surface temperature variations rather than external forcings. Under a high emission scenario, the frequency of GPLLJ‐related environments favorable for MCS initiation will increase by ∼65% during 2015–2100, along with a stronger GPLLJ, suggesting more frequent MCSs over the US Great Plains in a warming world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How Might the May 2015 Flood in the U.S. Southern Great Plains Induced by Clustered MCSs Unfold in the Future?

Abstract The historic 22–26 May 2015 flood event in Texas and Oklahoma was caused by anomalous clustered mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that produced record‐breaking rainfall and $3 billion of damage in the region. A month‐long regional convection‐permitting simulation is conducted to reconstruct multiple clustered MCSs that lead to this flood event. We further use the pseudo global warming approach to examine how a similar event may unfold in a warmer climate and the driving physical factors for the changes. Tracking of MCSs in observations and simulations shows that the historical simulation reproduces the salient characteristics of the observed MCSs. In a warmer climate under a high‐emission (SSP5‐8.5) scenario, the Southern Great Plains is projected to experience a near surface warming of 4–6 K, accompanied by enhanced moisture transport by the strengthened Great Plains low‐level jet. A warmer and moister lower troposphere leads to 36%–59% larger convective available potential energy, supporting wider and more intense convective updrafts and rainfall production. Consistently, MCSs have wider convective areas and stronger rainfall intensities, producing 50% larger rain volumes during the mature stage. Extreme (99.5%) MCS rainfall frequency and amount will increase by threefold. However, MCS stratiform rain area decreases as a result of elevated stratiform cloud bases that lead to stronger sublimation and evaporation of precipitation in response to warming, resulting in reduced weak‐to‐moderate surface precipitation. Results suggest that global warming greatly increases precipitation intensity of clustered MCS events under strong synoptic influence, with much higher potential to produce serious floods without additional climate adaptation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How the Great Plains Dust Bowl drought spread heat extremes around the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract Extraordinary heat extremes occurred in the 1930s in areas of the Northern Hemisphere far from the record setting heat over the US associated with the Great Plains Dust Bowl drought. A climate model sensitivity experiment is used to identify a new mechanism involving a warm season circumglobal atmospheric teleconnection pattern that spread heat extremes over far-flung areas of the Northern Hemisphere arising from the intense heating over the desiccated Great Plains themselves. It has only been in the twenty-first century that human populations in these regions of the Northern Hemisphere have experienced heat extremes comparable to the 1930s. This demonstrates that humans influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature and heat extremes through disastrous and unprecedented regional land use practices over the Great Plains, and points to the possibility that future intense regional droughts could affect heat extremes on hemispheric scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characteristics of Ice Cloud–Precipitation of Warm Season Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Great Plains

Abstract In this study, the mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are tracked using high-resolution radar and satellite observations over the U.S. Great Plains during April–August from 2010 to 2012. The spatiotemporal variability of MCS precipitation is then characterized using the Stage IV product. We found that the spatial variability and nocturnal peaks of MCS precipitation are primarily driven by the MCS occurrence rather than the precipitation intensity. The tracked MCSs are further classified into convective core (CC), stratiform rain (SR), and anvil clouds regions. The spatial variability and diurnal cycle of precipitation in the SR regions of MCSs are not as significant as those of MCS precipitation. In the SR regions, the high-resolution, long-term ice cloud microphysical properties [ice water content (IWC) and ice water paths (IWPs)] are provided. The IWCs generally decrease with height. Spatially, the IWC, IWP, and precipitation are all higher over the southern Great Plains than over the northern Great Plains. Seasonally, those ice and precipitation properties are all higher in summer than in spring. Comparing the peak timings of MCS precipitation and IWPs from the diurnal cycles and their composite evolutions, it is found that when using the peak timing of IWPSR as a reference, the heaviest precipitation in the MCS convective core occurs earlier, while the strongest SR precipitation occurs later. The shift of peak timings could be explained by the stratiform precipitation formation process. The IWP and precipitation relationships are different at MCS genesis, mature, and decay stages. The relationships and the transition processes from ice particles to precipitation also depend on the low-level humidity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Empirical Estimation of Shortest Route Length along U.S. Interstate Highways Based on Great Circle Distance

In this study, 98 regression models were specified for easily estimating shortest distances based on great circle distances along the U.S. interstate highways nationwide and for each of the continental 48 states. This allows transportation professionals to quickly generate distance, or even distance matrix, without expending significant efforts on complicated shortest path calculations. For simple usage by all professionals, all models are present in the simple linear regression form. Only one explanatory variable, the great circle distance, is considered to calculate the route distance. For each geographic scope (i.e., the national or one of the states), two different models were considered, with and without the intercept. Based on the adjusted R-squared, it was observed that models without intercepts generally have better fitness. Additionally, all these models generally have good fitness with the linear regression relationship between the great circle distance and route distance. At the state level, significant variations in the slope coefficients between the state-level models were also observed. Furthermore, a preliminary analysis of the effect of highway density on this variation was conducted.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

AmeriFlux US-xGR NEON Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Twin Creeks (GRSM)

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xGR NEON Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Twin Creeks (GRSM). Site Description - Great Smoky Mountains National Park straddles the ridgeline of the Great Smoky Mountains, the lower section in latitude of the Blue Ridge Mountains, which divides the larger Appalachian Mountain chain. The border between Tennessee and North Carolina runs northeast to southwest through the centerline of the park. Plants and animals common in the country's Northeast have found suitable ecological niches in the park's higher elevations, while southern species find homes in the balmier lower reaches.

Network), NEON (National Ecological Observatory↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-xNG NEON Northern Great Plains Research Laboratory (NOGP)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xNG NEON Northern Great Plains Research Laboratory (NOGP). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xNG NEON Northern Great Plains Research Laboratory (NOGP) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - This site is located at the Northern Great Plains Research Laboratory

Network), NEON (National Ecological Observatory↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-UTP UFLUX Great Salt Lake Phragmites

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-UTP UFLUX Great Salt Lake Phragmites. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-UTP UFLUX Great Salt Lake Phragmites produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The station is in the middle of a stand of invasive Phragmites australis, located on the margin of the Great Salt Lake in Farmington Bay.

Inkenbrandt, Paul [Utah Geological Survey]↗

Expanding Collaborative Capacity to Address Climate Resiliency in the Great Lakes Region

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Award DE-SC0023215, Expanding Collaborative Capacity to Address Climate Resiliency in the Great Lakes Region, supported capacity and partnership building between researchers at Central Michigan University (CMU) and scientists at DOE laboratories. The work involved identifying potential collaborations both internal to CMU and between CMU researchers and DOE staff, developing collaborative research proposals, and partnering on pilot-scale research projects focused on enhancing resilience of Great Lakes communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure to global change and environmental stressors. DOE funds supported travel, time to develop collaborations, investigate new research pathways, and draft grant proposals, and a loan of DOE equipment to collect pilot data in support of future work. The project achieved its goal of strengthening research collaborations between interdisciplinary researchers at CMU and establishing new collaborations and partnerships between CMU and DOE scientists. These collaborations resulted in 5 pre-applications and 4 full applications for funding to DOE BER Funding Opportunities, a successfully funded DOE BER award (DE-SC0025260), a new pilot project that leveraged DOE resources (AquaBOT) to improve understanding of water quality conditions in Michigan rivers, and two presentations of preliminary results at national scientific conferences. This project’s outcomes will benefit the Great Lakes Region via new lines of collaborative research focused on improving the resilience of Michigan communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Preliminary road alinement through the Great Kavir in Iran by repetitive ERTS-1 coverage

Access to the Great Kavir is generally limited to the period August through October when some salt crusts will support limited vehicular movement. The condition of the salt crusts and their parent sediments during the long wet season have been unknown. This absence of information about the surface of the Great Kavir has prevented an intensive study of a possible road alinement which could shorten the present route between northern and central Iran by 760 km. False color diazo composites of bands 4, 5, and 7 were prepared from positives of ERTS-1 MSS images taken of the Great Kavir. These scenes presented a record of the seasonal hydrologic changes that occurred from the dry to the wet season. During the period of maximum inundation and lowest bearing strengths, as inferred from the image of May 12, 1973, it was possible to select a preliminary road alinement that would avoid the wettest or roughest areas and take advantage of the best terrain and shortest distance. The eventual road alinement should be based on a longer record of observation and on-site investigations.

Krinsley, D. B.↗

Great Lakes all-weather ice information system

A system is described which utilizes an X-band Side-Looking-Airborne-Radar (SLAR) for determining type, location, and aerial distribution of the ice cover in the Great Lakes and an airborne, S-band, short pulse radar for obtaining ice thickness. The SLAR system is currently mounted aboard a U.S. Coast Guard C-130B aircraft. Digitized SLAR data are relayed in real-time via the NOAA-GOES-1 satellite in geosynchronous orbit to the U.S. Coast Guard Ice Center in Cleveland, Ohio. SLAR images along with hand-drawn interpretative ice charts for various winter shipping areas in the Great Lakes are broadcast to facsimile recorders aboard Great Lakes vessels. The operational aspects of this ice information system are being demonstrated by NASA, U.S. Coast Guard, and NOAA/National Weather Service. Results from the 1974-75 winter season demonstrated the ability of this system to provide all-weather ice information to shippers in a timely manner.

Schertler, R. J.↗

An operational all-weather Great Lakes ice information system

A description is given of the NASA developed all-weather ice information system for the Great Lakes winter navigation program. The system utilizes an X-band side looking airborne radar (SLAR) for determining type, location, and areal distribution of the ice cover in the Great Lakes and an airborne, S band, down looking short pulse radar for obtaining ice thickness. Digitized SLAR data are relayed in real time via the NOAA-GOES satellite in geosynchronous orbit. The SLAR images along with hand drawn interpretative ice charts for various Great Lakes winter shipping areas are broadcast to facsimile recorders aboard vessles is the area via the MARAD marine VHF-FM radio network. These data assist such vessels in navigating both through and around the ice.

Gedney, R. T.↗

A comparison of the Great Red Spot with temporary spots on Jupiter

The International Planetary Patrol collection of Jupiter photographs is used to examine the development of a temporary spot that was visible in the northern equatorial zone for a total of 211 days. The motion and color of this spot are compared with those of the Great Red Spot. It is shown that the temporary spot was bluer than the Great Red Spot and has a longitudinal oscillation of approximately 4 deg with a period of about 45 days, implying that it may have possessed a significant dynamical property in common with other temporary spots and the Great Red Spot. It is concluded that the present spot is more likely to have been associated with a hole in the cloud deck rather than with an elevated surface feature.

Browne, G. C.↗

The rupture process and asperity distribution of three great earthquakes from long-period diffracted P-waves

The variation of maximum earthquake size along the subduction zones has been interpreted as a variation in the seismic coupling ostensibly related to the mechanical conditions of the fault zone. Great differences are noted between the seismographs of the three great earthquakes whose rupture processes are presently considered: in the Kurile Islands (1963), The Rat Islands (1965) and Alaska (1964). On-scale long period P waves were recorded in all cases. Source time functions are deconvolved from the observed periods. It is concluded that maximum earthquake size is related to the asperity distribution on the fault. The subduction zones with the largest earthquakes have very large asperities, as in the Alaskan case, while the zones with the smaller great earthquakes, such as the Kurile Islands, have smaller scattered asperities.

Ruff, L.↗

Development of Great Lakes algorithms for the Nimbus-G coastal zone color scanner

A series of experiments in the Great Lakes designed to evaluate the application of the Nimbus G satellite Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) were conducted. Absorption and scattering measurement data were reduced to obtain a preliminary optical model for the Great Lakes. Available optical models were used in turn to calculate subsurface reflectances for expected concentrations of chlorophyll-a pigment and suspended minerals. Multiple nonlinear regression techniques were used to derive CZCS water quality prediction equations from Great Lakes simulation data. An existing atmospheric model was combined with a water model to provide the necessary simulation data for evaluation of the preliminary CZCS algorithms. A CZCS scanner model was developed which accounts for image distorting scanner and satellite motions. This model was used in turn to generate mapping polynomials that define the transformation from the original image to one configured in a polyconic projection. Four computer programs (FORTRAN IV) for image transformation are presented.

Tanis, F. J.↗

A study of tectonic activity in the Basin-Range Province and on the San Andreas Fault. No. 3: Kinematics of Great Basin intraplate extension from earthquake, geodetic and geologic information

Strain rates assessed from brittle fracture, associated with earthquakes, and total brittle-ductile deformation measured from geodetic data were compared to paleostrain from Quaternary geology for the intraplate Great Basin of the western United States. These data provide an assessment of the kinematics and mode of lithospheric extension that the western U.S. Cordillera has experienced in the last 5 to 10 million years. Strain and deformation rates were determined by the seismic moment tensor method using historic seismicity and fault plane solutions. Contemporary deformation of the Great Basin occurs principally along the active seismic zones. The earthquake related strain shows that the Great Basin is characterized by regional E-W extension at 8.4 mm/a in the north that diminishes to NW-SE extension of 3.5 mm/a in the south. Zones of maximum extension correspond to belts of shallow crust, high heat flow, and Quaternary basaltic volcanism, suggesting that these parameters are related through an effect such as a stress relaxation allowing bouyant uplift and ascension of magmas.

Eddington, P. K.↗