Results for “Grid-Scale” — Page 4

NASA NTRS1998

GCM Simulations of Cirrus Clouds and Cloud Feedbacks

Cirrus clouds are a particularly uncertain component of general circulation model (GCM simulations of long-term climate change for a variety of reasons: (1) They encompass a wide range of optical thicknesses and altitudes, from thin tropopause cirrus to thick anvil cirrus that descend to the freezing level, and thus can exert both positive and negative forcing and feedback on the climate; (2) The dynamical processes that create them are poorly resolved in climate GCMs and different in the tropics and midlatitudes; (3) Predictions of their formation and microphysical properties depend on the accuracy of dynamical transports of small concentrations of water vapor to and within the upper troposphere; (4) The relative humidity conditions at which they form depends on the nature and concentration of nucleating particles and is poorly understood; (5) They are more difficult to observe than other cloud types, and hence their parameterization is more loosely constrained by available data. We will illustrate the potential sensitivity of the perturbed climate to uncertainties in cirrus cloud formulation. We will also examine the processes that form cirrus in climate models and discuss the accuracy with which climate GCMs represent these processes. We will also discuss ways in which GCM grid-scale parameterizations might be derived from cloud-scale observations. Finally, we will emphasize the types of global observations needed to constrain parameterizations of cirrus in climate GCMs.

DelGenio, Anthony D.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Validation of Land-Surface Mosaic Heterogeneity in the GEOS DAS

The Mosaic Land-surface Model (LSM) has been included into the current GEOS Data Assimilation System (DAS). The LSM uses a more advanced representation of physical processes than previous versions of the GEOS DAS, including the representation of sub-grid heterogeneity of the land-surface through the Mosaic approach. As a first approximation, Mosaic assumes that all similar surface types within a grid-cell can be lumped together as a single'tile'. Within one GCM grid-cell, there might be 1 - 5 different tiles or surface types. All tiles are subjected to the grid-scale forcing (radiation, air temperature and specific humidity, and precipitation), and the sub-grid variability is a function of the tile characteristics. In this paper, we validate the LSM sub-grid scale variability (tiles) using a variety of surface observing stations from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. One of the primary goals of SGP ARM is to study the variability of atmospheric radiation within a G,CM grid-cell. Enough surface data has been collected by ARM to extend this goal to sub-grid variability of the land-surface energy and water budgets. The time period of this study is the Summer of 1998 (June I - September 1). The ARM site data consists of surface meteorology, energy flux (eddy correlation and bowen ratio), soil water observations spread over an area similar to the size of a G-CM grid-cell. Various ARM stations are described as wheat and alfalfa crops, pasture and range land. The LSM tiles considered at the grid-space (2 x 2.5) nearest the ARM site include, grassland, deciduous forests, bare soil and dwarf trees. Surface energy and water balances for each tile type are compared with observations. Furthermore, we will discuss the land-surface sub-grid variability of both the ARM observations and the DAS.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Two Dimensional Wake Vortex Simulations in the Atmosphere: Preliminary Sensitivity Studies

A numerical large-eddy simulation model is currently being used to quantify aircraft wake vortex behavior with meteorological observables. The model, having a meteorological framework, permits the interaction of wake vortices with environments characterized by crosswind shear, stratification, and humidity. The addition of grid-scale turbulence as an initial condition appeared to have little consequence. Results show that conventional nondimensionalizations work very well for vortex pairs embedded in stably stratified flows. However, this result is based on simple environments with constant Brunt-Vaisala frequency. Results presented here also show that crosswind profiles exert important and complex interactions on the trajectories of wake vortices. Nonlinear crosswind profiles tended to arrest the descent of wake vortex pairs. The member of the vortex pair with vorticity of same sign as the vertical change in the ambient along-track vorticity may be deflected upwards.

Proctor, F. H.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Using High Frequency Passive Microwave, A-train, and TRMM Data to Evaluate Hydrometer Structure in the NASA GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System

Validating water vapor and prognostic condensate in global models remains a challenging research task. Model parameterizations are still subject to a large number of tunable parameters; furthermore, accurate and representative in situ observations are very sparse, and satellite observations historically have significant quantitative uncertainties. Progress on improving cloud / hydrometeor fields in models stands to benefit greatly from the growing inventory ofA-Train data sets. ill the present study we are using a variety of complementary satellite retrievals of hydrometeors to examine condensate produced by the emerging NASA Modem Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and its associated atmospheric general circulation model GEOS5. Cloud and precipitation are generated by both grid-scale prognostic equations and by the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) diagnostic convective parameterization. The high frequency channels (89 to 183.3 GHz) from AMSU-B and MRS on NOAA polar orbiting satellites are being used to evaluate the climatology and variability of precipitating ice from tropical convective anvils. Vertical hydrometeor structure from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and CloudSat radars are used to develop statistics on vertical hydrometeor structure in order to better interpret the extensive high frequency passive microwave climatology. Cloud liquid and ice water path data retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS, are used to investigate relationships between upper level cloudiness and tropical deep convective anvils. Together these data are used to evaluate cloud / ice water path, gross aspects of vertical hydrometeor structure, and the relationship between cloud extent and surface precipitation that the MERRA reanalysis must capture.

Robertson, Franklin↗

NASA NTRS2008

Atmospheric Parameter Climatologies from AIRS: Monitoring Short-, and Longer-Term Climate Variabilities and 'Trends'

The AIRS instrument is currently the best space-based tool to simultaneously monitor the vertical distribution of key climatically important atmospheric parameters as well as surface properties, and has provided high quality data for more than 5 years. AIRS analysis results produced at the GODDARD/DAAC, based on Versions 4 & 5 of the AIRS retrieval algorithm, are currently available for public use. Here, first we present an assessment of interrelationships of anomalies (proxies of climate variability based on 5 full years, since Sept. 2002) of various climate parameters at different spatial scales. We also present AIRS-retrievals-based global, regional and 1x1 degree grid-scale "trend"-analyses of important atmospheric parameters for this 5-year period. Note that here "trend" simply means the linear fit to the anomaly (relative the mean seasonal cycle) time series of various parameters at the above-mentioned spatial scales, and we present these to illustrate the usefulness of continuing AIRS-based climate observations. Preliminary validation efforts, in terms of intercomparisons of interannual variabilities with other available satellite data analysis results, will also be addressed. For example, we show that the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) interannual spatial variabilities from the available state-of-the-art CERES measurements and from the AIRS computations are in remarkably good agreement. Version 6 of the AIRS retrieval scheme (currently under development) promises to further improve bias agreements for the absolute values by implementing a more accurate radiative transfer model for the OLR computations and by improving surface emissivity retrievals.

Molnar, Gyula↗

NASA NTRS2009

Comparison of the Effects of RAS vs. Kain-Fritsch Convective Schemes on Katrina Forecasts with GEOS-5

Global forecasts were made with the 0.25-degree latitude version of GEOS-5, with the RAS scheme and with the Kain-Fritsch scheme. Examination was made of the Katrina (2005) hurricane simulation. Replacement of the RAS convective scheme with the K-F scheme results in a much more vigorous Katrina, closer to reality. Still, the result is not as vigorous as reality. In terms of wind maximum, the gap was closed by ~50%. The result seems to be due to the RAS scheme drying out the boundary layer, thus hampering the grid-scale secondary circulation and attending cyclone development. The RAS case never developed a full warm core, whereas the K-F case did. Not shown here: The K-F scheme also resulted in a more vigorous storm than when GEOS-5 is run with no convective parameterization. Also not shown: An experiment in which the RAS firing level was moved up by 3 model levels resulted in a stronger, warm-core storm, though not as strong as the K-F case. Effects on storm track were noticed, but not studied.

Miller, Timothy L.↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Influence of the 2006 Indonesian Biomass Burning Aerosols on Tropical Dynamics Studied with the GEOS-5 AGCM

The direct and semi-direct effects of aerosols produced by Indonesian biomass burning (BB) during August November 2006 on tropical dynamics have been examined using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The AGCM includes CO, which is transported by resolved and sub-grid processes and subject to a linearized chemical loss rate. Simulations were driven by two sets of aerosol forcing fields calculated offline, one that included Indonesian BB aerosol emissions and one that did not. In order to separate the influence of the aerosols from internal model variability, the means of two ten-member ensembles were compared. Diabatic heating from BB aerosols increased temperatures over Indonesia between 150 and 400 hPa. The higher temperatures resulted in strong increases in upward grid-scale vertical motion, which increased water vapor and CO over Indonesia. In October, the largest increases in water vapor were found in the mid-troposphere (~25%) while the largest increases in CO occurred just below the tropopause (80 ppbv or ~50%). Diabatic heating from the Indonesian BB aerosols caused CO to increase by 9% throughout the tropical tropopause layer in November and 5% in the lower stratosphere in December. The results demonstrate that aerosol heating plays an important role in the transport of BB pollution and troposphere-to-stratosphere transport. Changes in vertical motion and cloudiness induced by aerosol heating can also alter the transport and phase of water vapor in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere.

Ott, Lesley↗

NASA NTRS2009

Demonstration of Effects on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts with a High Resolution Global Model from Variation in Cumulus Convection Parameterization

The Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) is a system of models that have been developed at Goddard Space Flight Center to support NASA's earth science research in data analysis, observing system modeling and design, climate and weather prediction, and basic research. The work presented used GEOS-5 with 0.25o horizontal resolution and 72 vertical levels (up to 0.01 hP) resolving both the troposphere and stratosphere, with closer packing of the levels close to the surface. The model includes explicit (grid-scale) moist physics, as well as convective parameterization schemes. Results will be presented that will demonstrate strong dependence in the results of modeling of a strong hurricane on the type of convective parameterization scheme used. The previous standard (default) option in the model was the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme, which uses a quasi-equilibrium closure. In the cases shown, this scheme does not permit the efficient development of a strong storm in comparison with observations. When this scheme is replaced by a modified version of the Kain-Fritsch scheme, which was originally developed for use on grids with intervals of order 25 km such as the present one, the storm is able to develop to a much greater extent, closer to that of reality. Details of the two cases will be shown in order to elucidate the differences in the two modeled storms.

Miller, Timothy L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Usefulness of AIRS-Derived OLR, Temperature, Water Vapor and Cloudiness Anomaly Trends for GCM Validation

Mainly due to their global nature, satellite observations can provide a very useful basis for GCM validations. In particular, satellite sounders such as AIRS provide 3-D spatial information (most useful for GCMs), so the question arises: can we use AIRS datasets for climate variability assessments? We show that the recent (September 2002 February 2010) CERES-observed negative trend in OLR of approx.-0.1 W/sq m/yr averaged over the globe is found in the AIRS OLR data as well. Most importantly, even minute details (down to 1 x 1 degree GCM-scale resolution) of spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS-retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over this time period are essentially the same. The correspondence can be seen even in the very large spatial variations of these trends with local values ranging from -2.6 W/sq m/yr to +3.0 W/sq m/yr in the tropics, for example. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate, and indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of other AIRS derived products as well. These products show that global and regional anomalies and trends of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over the last 7+ years are strongly influenced by EI-Nino-La Nina cycles . We have created climate parameter anomaly datasets using AIRS retrievals which can be compared directly with coupled GCM climate variability assessments. Moreover, interrelationships of these anomalies and trends should also be similar between the observed and GCM-generated datasets, and, in cases of discrepancies, GCM parameterizations could be improved based on the relationships observed in the data. First, we assess spatial "trends" of variability of climatic parameter anomalies [since anomalies relative to the seasonal cycle are good proxies of climate variability] at the common 1x1 degree GCM grid-scale by creating spatial anomaly "trends" based on the first 7+ years of AIRS Version 5 Leve13 data. We suggest that modelers should compare these with their (coupled) GCM's performance covering the same period. We evaluate temporal variability and interrelations of climatic anomalies on global to regional e.g., deep Tropical Hovmoller diagrams, El-Nino-related variability scales, and show the effects of El-Nino-La Nina activity on tropical anomalies and trends of water vapor cloud cover and OLR. For GCMs to be trusted highly for long-term climate change predictions, they should be able to reproduce findings similar to these. In summary, the AIRS-based climate variability analyses provide high quality, informative and physically plausible interrelationships among OLR, temperature, humidity and cloud cover both on the spatial and temporal scales. GCM validations can use these results even directly, e. g., by creating 1x1 degree trendmaps for the same period in coupled climate simulations.

Molnar, Gyula I.↗

NASA NTRS2011

AIRS-Observed Interrelationships of Anomaly Time-Series of Moist Process-Related Parameters and Inferred Feedback Values on Various Spatial Scales

In the beginning, a good measure of a GMCs performance was their ability to simulate the observed mean seasonal cycle. That is, a reasonable simulation of the means (i.e., small biases) and standard deviations of TODAY?S climate would suffice. Here, we argue that coupled GCM (CG CM for short) simulations of FUTURE climates should be evaluated in much more detail, both spatially and temporally. Arguably, it is not the bias, but rather the reliability of the model-generated anomaly time-series, even down to the [C]GCM grid-scale, which really matter. This statement is underlined by the social need to address potential REGIONAL climate variability, and climate drifts/changes in a manner suitable for policy decisions.

Molnar, Gyula I.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves

In this study, it is proposed that twin tropical cyclones (TCs), Kesiny and 01A, in May 2002 formed in association with the scale interactions of three gyres that appeared as a convectively-coupled mixed Rossby gravity (ccMRG) wave during an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is shown by analyzing observational data and performing simulations using a global mesoscale model. A 10-day control run is initialized at 0000 UTC 1 May 2002 with grid-scale condensation but no cumulus parameterizations. The ccMRG wave was identified as encompassing two developing and one non-developing gyres, the first two of which intensified and evolved into the twin TCs. The control run is able to reproduce the evolution of the ccMRG wave and the formation of the twin TCs about two and five days in advance as well as their subsequent intensity evolution and movement within an 8-10 day period. Five additional 10-day sensitivity experiments with different model configurations are conducted to help understand the interaction of the three gyres. These experiments suggest the improved lead time in the control run may be attributed to the realistic simulation of the ccMRG wave with the following processes: (I) wave deepening associated with wave shortening and/or the intensification of individual gyres, (2) poleward movement of gyres that may be associated with bOlll1dary layer processes, (3) realistic simulation of moist processes at regional scales in association with each of the gyres, and (4) the vertical phasing of low- and mid-level cyclonic circulations associated with a specific gyre.

Shen, Bo-Wen↗

NASA NTRS2013

The MJO Transition from Shallow to Deep Convection in CloudSat/CALIPSO Data and GISS GCM Simulations

The relationship between convective penetration depth and tropospheric humidity is central to recent theories of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). It has been suggested that general circulation models (GCMs) poorly simulate the MJO because they fail to gradually moisten the troposphere by shallow convection and simulate a slow transition to deep convection. CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) data are analyzed to document the variability of convection depth and its relation to water vapor during the MJO transition from shallow to deep convection and to constrain GCM cumulus parameterizations. Composites of cloud occurrence for 10MJO events show the following anticipatedMJO cloud structure: shallow and congestus clouds in advance of the peak, deep clouds near the peak, and upper-level anvils after the peak. Cirrus clouds are also frequent in advance of the peak. The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EarthObserving System (EOS) (AMSR-E) columnwater vapor (CWV) increases by;5 mmduring the shallow- deep transition phase, consistent with the idea of moisture preconditioning. Echo-top height of clouds rooted in the boundary layer increases sharply with CWV, with large variability in depth when CWV is between;46 and 68 mm. International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud classifications reproduce these climatological relationships but correctly identify congestus-dominated scenes only about half the time. A version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2 (GISS-E2) GCM with strengthened entrainment and rain evaporation that produces MJO-like variability also reproduces the shallow-deep convection transition, including the large variability of cloud-top height at intermediate CWV values. The variability is due to small grid-scale relative humidity and lapse rate anomalies for similar values of CWV. 1.

DelGenio, Anthony G.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves

In this study, it is proposed that twin tropical cyclones (TCs), Kesiny and 01A, in May 2002 formed in association with the scale interactions of three gyres that appeared as a convectively coupled mixed Rossby gravity (ccMRG) wave during an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is shown by analyzing observational data, including NCEP reanalysis data and METEOSAT 7 IR satellite imagery, and performing numerical simulations using a global mesoscale model. A 10-day control run is initialized at 0000 UTC 1 May 2002 with grid-scale condensation but no sub-grid cumulus parameterizations. The ccMRG wave was identified as encompassing two developing and one non-developing gyres, the first two of which intensified and evolved into the twin TCs. The control run is able to reproduce the evolution of the ccMRG wave and thus the formation of the twin TCs about two and five days in advance as well as their subsequent intensity evolution and movement within an 8-10 day period. Five additional 10-day sensitivity experiments with different model configurations are conducted to help understand the interaction of the three gyres, leading to the formation of the TCs. These experiments suggest the improved lead time in the control run may be attributed to the realistic simulation of the ccMRG wave with the following processes: (1) wave deepening (intensification) associated with a reduction in wavelength and/or the intensification of individual gyres, (2) poleward movement of gyres that may be associated with boundary layer processes, (3) realistic simulation of moist processes at regional scales in association with each of the gyres, and (4) the vertical phasing of low- and mid-level cyclonic circulations associated with a specific gyre.

forecast↗

DOE OSTI2024

The National Transmission Planning Study: Executive Summary

The National Transmission Planning Study (NTP Study) was led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Grid Deployment Office, in partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The study sought to develop new national grid-scale planning tools and methods that can be used by industry, especially when planning for interregional transmission capacity needs; identify potential transmission solutions that will provide broad-scale benefits to electric customers under a wide range of potential futures; inform planning processes for regional and interregional transmission; and identify interregional and national strategies to maintain grid reliability as the grid transitions, including to a reliance on low- and zero-carbon energy resources. The NTP Study is presented as a collection of six chapters.