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DOE OSTI2024

Using stable isotopes to inform water resource management in forested and agricultural ecosystems

Present and future climatic trends are expected to markedly alter water fluxes and stores in the hydrologic cycle. In addition, water demand continues to grow due to increased human use and a growing population. Sustainably managing water resources requires a thorough understanding of water storage and flow in natural, agricultural, and urban ecosystems. Measurements of stable isotopes of water (hydrogen and oxygen) in the water cycle (atmosphere, soils, plants, surface water, and groundwater) can provide information on the transport pathways, sourcing, dynamics, ages, and storage pools of water that is difficult to obtain with other techniques. However, the potential of these techniques for practical questions has not been fully exploited yet. Here, we outline the benefits and limitations of potential applications of stable isotope methods useful to water managers, farmers, and other stakeholders. We also describe several case studies demonstrating how stable isotopes of water can support water management decision-making. Finally, we propose a workflow that guides users through a sequence of decisions required to apply stable isotope methods to examples of water management issues. We call for ongoing dialogue and a stronger connection between water management stakeholders and water stable isotope practitioners to identify the most pressing issues and develop best-practice guidelines to apply these techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.

Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗

DOE OSTI2023

Groundwater Volume Loss in Mexico City Constrained by InSAR and GRACE Observations and Mechanical Models

Abstract Groundwater withdrawal can cause localized and rapid poroelastic subsidence, spatially broad elastic uplift of low amplitude, and changes in the gravity field. Constraining groundwater loss in Mexico City, we analyze data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and its follow‐on mission (GRACE/FO) and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Sentinel‐1A/B images between 2014 and 2021. GRACE/FO observations yield a groundwater loss of 0.85–3.87 km 3 /yr for a region of ∼300 × 600 km surrounding Mexico City. Using the high‐resolution interferometric SAR data set, we measure >35 cm/yr subsidence within the city and up to 2 cm/yr of uplift in nearby areas. Attributing the long‐term subsidence to poroelastic aquifer compaction and the long‐term uplift to elastic unloading, we apply respective models informed by local geology, yielding groundwater loss of 0.86–12.57 km 3 /yr. Our results suggest Mexico City aquifers have been depleting at faster rates since 2015, exacerbating the socioeconomic and health impacts of long‐term groundwater overdrafts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Semi–Analytical Modeling of Transient Stream Drawdown and Depletion in Response to Aquifer Pumping

Analytical and semi–analytical models for stream depletion with transient stream stage drawdown induced by groundwater pumping are developed to address a deficiency in existing models, namely, the use of a fixed stream stage condition at the stream–aquifer interface. Here field data are presented to demonstrate that stream stage drawdown does indeed occur in response to groundwater pumping near aquifer–connected streams. A model that predicts stream depletion with transient stream drawdown is developed based on stream channel mass conservation and finite stream channel storage. The resulting models are shown to reduce to existing fixed–stage models in the limit as stream channel storage becomes infinitely large, and to the confined aquifer flow with a no–flow boundary at the streambed in the limit as stream storage becomes vanishingly small. The model is applied to field measurements of aquifer and stream drawdown, giving estimates of aquifer hydraulic parameters, streambed conductance, and a measure of stream channel storage. The results of the modeling and data analysis presented herein have implications for sustainable groundwater management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrology in the Age of Artificial Intelligence: From Fragmentation to Coherent Terrestrial Hydrosphere Science

The rapid rise of machine learning (ML) in hydrology has prompted debate about the discipline's scientific relevance. While ML often outperforms traditional models in streamflow prediction, we argue that this reflects a deeper limitation: persistent fragmentation of hydrological science itself. Narrow focus on isolated components has hindered the development of coherent, scale‐relevant understanding of the integrated terrestrial hydrosphere. This is illustrated, for example, by widely divergent estimates of groundwater–streamflow interactions and of water balance‐implied ongoing storage changes. We argue that hydrology's future lies not in choosing between ML and physics, but in integrating data‐driven and process‐based approaches to advance consistent, realistic, and societally relevant understanding of the terrestrial hydrosphere and its multifaceted roles in the Earth System.

Painter, Scott L. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗

DOE OSTI2025

Drought-induced changes in groundwater-surface water exchange at Lake Mead area

This study focuses on the Lake Mead region in the southwestern United States, a key water reservoir serving over 25 million people and agricultural lands across several states. The area has experienced recurring anthropogenic droughts since the early 2000s. We investigate the hydrological response of the coupled surface-groundwater system to the 2020–2022 drought, one of the most severe on record. To this end, we use Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data to quantify vertical land motion caused by the elastic response of the crust to water-mass loss in the lake vicinity. Next, we apply an inverse elastic load modeling framework to quantify water loss. We further assess possible hydraulic connectivity between Lake Mead and adjacent groundwater reservoirs. We detect ground uplift of up to 8 mm/yr near the lake center, likely due to crustal rebound from reduced water-mass loading. We estimated the total water storage loss at 3.03 ± 0.25 km 3 /yr across a 3150 km 2 area surrounding Lake Mead. Groundwater accounts for approximately a third of that, being 0.94 ± 0.32 km 3 /yr. In addition, observed time lags of 6–98 days between lake and groundwater level responses, corresponding to a lateral diffusivity of 3.2–86 m 2 /s, suggest spatially variable connectivity between the lake and aquifers. These findings highlight that drought impacts propagate through the subsurface within interconnected systems, resulting in reduced buffering capacity of groundwater resources following droughts, and emphasizing the need for more integrated surface and groundwater management strategies to enhance resilience under climate and anthropogenic stressors.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the nexus between groundwater and solar energy plants in a desert basin with a dual-model approach under uncertainty

Globally, many solar power plants and other types of renewable energy are being located in water-scarce regions. Many projects rely on groundwater resources whose sustainability is uncertain. In the Chuckwalla Basin in California, quantification of recharge and trans-valley underflow is needed to estimate the impacts of solar project withdrawals on the water table. However, such estimates are highly challenging due to data scarcity, heterogeneous soils and long residence times. Conventional assessment employs isolated groundwater models configured with crude and uniform estimates of recharge. Here, we employ a data-constrained surface subsurface processes model, PAWS+CLM, to provide an ensemble of recharges and underflows with perturbed parameters. Then, the Parameter Estimation (PEST) package is used to calibrate MODFLOW aquifer conductivity and filter out implausible recharges. The novel dual-model approach, potentially applicable in other arid regions, can effectively assimilate groundwater head observations, reject unrealistic parameters, and narrow the range of estimated drawdowns. Simulated recharge concentrates along alluvial fans at the mountain fronts and ephemeral washes where run-off water infiltrates. If an evenly distributed recharge was assumed, it resulted in under-estimated drawdown and larger uncertainty bounds. The withdrawals are approaching total inflow, suggesting the system will be nearing, if not exceeding, its sustainable groundwater production capacity, and a boom of such projects will not be sustainable. Especially, the cost/benefit of pumped-storage projects is called into question as the initial-fill phase depletes entire area’s recharge. Our study highlights the stress on groundwater resources of solar development, and that the speed of groundwater recovery does not indicate sustainability. Main point 1: A novel dual model approach, involving an integrated surface/subsurface model and a groundwater parameter-estimation model, was able to better constrain the model. Main point 2: The groundwater system may be nearing, if not exceeding, its sustainable groundwater production capacity and the speed of recovery is not indicative of sustainability. Main point 3: Results from using conventionally-assumed uniform recharge distort calibrated K fields and impacts assessment

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dual Purpose Canister Reactivity and Groundwater Absorption Analyses

The current spent nuclear fuel (SNF) management strategy includes reliance on dry storage. Utilities are meeting their interim storage needs on an individual basis with use of large-capacity dry storage casks, with a current focus on meeting existing storage and transportation requirements, as disposal requirements are not currently available. These casks are commonly known as dual-purpose (i.e., storage and transportation) canisters (DPCs). However, a small percentage of single-purpose (storage only) systems is also being used to meet storage needs. These are included under the “DPC” heading. This report investigates the postclosure criticality safety aspects of DPCs. Placing large, heavy waste packages containing DPCs into a repository for direct disposal has not yet been implemented domestically or internationally. Therefore, direct disposal of DPCs represents new engineering and scientific challenges. Some of the engineering challenges that have already been addressed include handling and placement, use of ramps vs. shafts, use of hoists, use of transport equipment, and thermal management. Additionally, some studies have been conducted in the past regarding the feasibility of direct disposal from a criticality analysis perspective and have concluded that while possible, demonstrating subcriticality over the disposal time period is a challenge. The alternative to direct disposal of DPCs into a repository is to repackage the SNF into different canisters. The direct disposal of DPCs without cutting them open and repackaging is appealing because it could be more cost-effective, reduce the complexity of fuel management operations both in and outside reactor facilities, and result in less cumulative worker dose during interim storage and handling before eventual disposal in a deep geologic repository.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dual Purpose Canister Reactivity and Groundwater Absorption Analyses

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity of geophysical techniques for monitoring secondary CO 2 storage plumes

For geologic carbon storage, the ability to detect secondary CO 2 plumes—defined as those CO 2 plumes accumulating outside the intended storage reservoir—is fundamental to preventing unexpected CO 2 migration into groundwater resources and for risk and liability management. Understanding the sensitivity of various geophysical methods to secondary plumes is crucial for designing cost-effective monitoring schemes. We use several modeling scenarios to demonstrate the process of assessing sensitivities and detection thresholds of three primary geophysical techniques—surface seismic, borehole-to-surface electromagnetic (EM), and surface and borehole gravity—for early detection of secondary CO 2 plumes in the post-injection phase. While seismic reflection methods are often considered in monitoring strategies to track the evolution of CO 2 plumes, they are also the most expensive. Due to cost considerations, especially for long-term post-injection monitoring, other techniques complement seismic monitoring when designing an adaptive monitoring network. Borehole-to-surface EM or surface gravity surveys are feasible for time-lapse monitoring of deep secondary CO 2 plumes. Furthermore, these surveys could be carried at intervals defined by site-specific conditions. If time-lapse EM and/or gravity surveys detect any signal responses beyond the expected change, it would trigger a need for the higher resolution seismic survey.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Intensifying tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea replenish depleting aquifers

Tropical cyclones intensified globally in recent decades, delivering extreme precipitation deeper inland. While much research has focused on the role of climate change in tropical cyclone intensification, less is known about their contribution to groundwater recharge, especially in arid regions where freshwater is scarce and aquifers are being depleted. Here we quantify cyclone-driven groundwater recharge across the Arabian Peninsula from 2002 to 2021 using satellite-based total water storage and hydrodynamic modeling. Findings show that cyclones contributed up to 60% of total precipitation in the southern Arabian Peninsula. Cyclone Mekunu (2018) alone delivered 30 km 3 of precipitation inland, resulting in a net groundwater recharge of 3.2 ± 1.2 km 3 in the Najd subbasin. These findings reveal that tropical cyclones play a crucial role in replenishing groundwater resources in arid regions. Our approach provides a framework for quantifying recharge in ungauged arid basins worldwide, offering valuable insights for climate-resilient water resource management.

Saleh, Hassan [Western Michigan Univ., Kalamazoo M↗

DOE OSTI2021

The effects of well damage and completion designs on geoelectrical responses in mature wellbore environments

Well integrity is one of the major concerns in long-term geologic storage sites due to the potential risk of well leakage and groundwater contamination. Evaluating changes in electrical responses due to energized steel-cased wells has the potential to quantify and predict possible wellbore failures because any kind of breakage or corrosion along highly conductive well casings will have an impact on the distribution of the subsurface electrical potential. However, realistic wellbore-geoelectrical models that can fully capture fine-scale details of well completion design and the state of well damage at the field scale require extensive computational effort, or they can even be intractable to simulate. To overcome this computational burden while still keeping the model realistic, we have used the hierarchical finite-element method that represents electrical conductivity at each dimensional component (1D edges, 2D planes, and 3D cells) of a tetrahedral mesh. This allows well completion designs with real-life geometric scales and well systems with realistic, detailed, progressive corrosion and damage in our models. We have developed a comparison of possible discretization approaches of a multicasing completion design in the finite-element model. The effects of the surface casing and the coupling between concentric well casings as well as the effects of the degree and the location of well damage on the electrical responses are also examined. As a result, we analyze real surface electric field data to detect wellbore integrity failure associated with damage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

NRAP-Open-IAM: Generic Aquifer Component Development and Testing

The Generic Aquifer Model calculates the concentrations of dissolved salt and dissolved CO 2 surrounding a leaking legacy well. The Generic Aquifer model can also estimate the size of an “impact plume” where concentration changes exceed user-specified thresholds. The model is a component of NRAP-Open-IAM, an open-source Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) to perform risk assessment for geologic CO 2 storage. The input parameters were selected to cover a wide range of groundwater aquifers and leakage rates. The generic aquifer model was developed using a generative adversarial deep learning network, trained using a large synthetic dataset of STOMP multiphase flow simulations. The deep learning model predictions of dissolved salt and dissolved CO 2 in the aquifer compare well to the original STOMP simulation results. The extent of aquifer impacted by leaking CO 2 or brine is calculated using a user-defined mass fraction threshold. The aquifer impact volumes calculated based on STOMP simulation results compare well to those calculated based on the deep learning model. In a provided python script, gridded observation results from the generic aquifer component of NRAP-Open-IAM are converted to HDF5 format files for monitoring design with the DREAM code.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dual Purpose Canister Reactivity and Groundwater Absorption Analyses (Rev. 7)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Role of Groundwater Withdrawals on River Regulation: Example From the Columbia River Basin

The Columbia River Basin (CRB) is heavily regulated by more than 250 dams on its river system while depending significantly on groundwater withdrawals in certain sub-basins. Neglecting groundwater withdrawals in hydrologic models of the basin could result in inaccurate predictions of its water budget and thus mislead water management decisions in the basin. This work aims to understand the impacts of groundwater pumping on the spatiotemporal patterns of modeling regulated streamflow in the CRB using a modified version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model integrated with a water management component that accounts for groundwater withdrawals, irrigation demands, and reservoir operation (VIC-GIRR). The VIC-GIRR simulations showed that considering additional groundwater withdrawals would alleviate the stress of irrigation water deficit in the Snake River Basin with an average reduction of 10 km 3 /year. Such a reduction in water deficit resulted in slight streamflow increase over the CRB with maximum increase up to 40% during dry period in certain locations. We also note that the implementation of groundwater withdrawal does not, however, improve the overall model performance in long-term averaged streamflow and storage predictions. Our results highlight the efforts needed to examine additional important processes in representing the interactions between water withdrawals and reservoir operations. Such efforts will aid in better simulation of multi-reservoir system and improve effectiveness for agricultural productivity, power generation, flood control, and navigation purposes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The weathered bedrock vadose zone: A hidden control on water availability in the western United States (Final Technical Report)

This report summarizes the research completed during the project entitled "The weathered bedrock vadose zone: A hidden control on water availability in the western United States" (Award: DE-SC0018039). The report covers work completed between 9/15/17 and 9/14/20. The objective of the exploratory project work was to evaluate the overarching hypothesis that the subsurface underlying actively eroding landscapes is systematically structured as a result of a balance between weathering and erosion and that this structure leads to dynamic moisture storage within weathered rock. To accomplish project objectives, we characterized hillslope weathering profile structure and conducted subsurface moisture monitoring across four study sites with comparable bedrock types but differing erosion rate and hydroclimate: The Angelo Coast Range Reserve (ACRR), Sagehorn-Russell Ranch (SRR), Antelope Valley Ranch (AVR), and the LBNL Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA). New characterization and monitoring infrastructure at the AVR and SFA sites was established through this project and enables long-term monitoring of hydrologic and carbon fluxes at the sites for comparison with long-term monitoring in other sites. Deep drilling, downhole logging, and characterization of chemistry and porosity of rock recovered from drilling reveals two weathering fronts across the sites. A shallower front is marked by the extent of pervasive fracturing and oxidation of pyrite and organic carbon. A deeper weathering front is marked by the appearance of open fractures and discoloration. At the AVR site, multiple ridge tops of different hillslope length were investigated to establish the relationship between the weathering front and topography. Drilling reveals that the fraction of the hillslope relief that is weathered scales with hillslope length, consistent with the theoretical framework that guided the project relating groundwater drainage with landscape evolution. With the establishment of new boreholes, we have documented significant water storage in weathered bedrock using low-field borehole nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) across all four sites. In the upper 4 m of bedrock, the average water contents at ACRR, AVR, SRR, and SFA are approximately 25%, 16%, 25%, 23% respectively. At the ACRR site, where long-term monitoring via neutron probe surveys and time-domain transmission sensors are available, we have demonstrated that NMR reliably records moisture content and importantly, moisture content dynamics in weathered bedrock. Across all sites, our NMR monitoring has also revealed that a considerable fraction of the water storage occurs in fractures or pores that are significantly larger than the fine-grained bedrock matrix of the parent rock. To identify the proportion of water storage occurring in fractures and large pores, we analyzed the NMR signal by evaluating both the sum of echoes and an inversion of the NMR signal for a distribution of T2 relaxation times. Both methods reveal that at least 20% of the water storage occurs in fractures and larger pores across all sites. To constrain the interpretation of the in-situ field-scale NMR measurements, we compare the NMR response in the field to independent pore-structure information obtained via helium pycnometry. Results support the inference that dynamic seasonal water storage is dominantly restricted to the fracture network, which can reach 7% of the total volume. This dynamic range in water content is comparable to that of some soils, underscoring the need to understand how this region of the Earth System is structured, and functions as a hydrologic reservoir.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Watersheds and stream networks viewed longitudinally: Example insights from novel spatial portrayals of watershed characteristics

Abstract Longitudinal depictions of watershed structure and characteristics, including topography, stream networks, wetlands, ground water levels, and land use, can provide watershed knowledge and understanding unavailable from standard plan view maps. Three case studies provide examples of knowledge gained by applying longitudinal views of stream networks, watershed hydrologic behavior, and land use distributions. Longitudinal views of mountain stream networks show extreme variability in the slope‐area relationships of low Strahler order streams, large discontinuities in drainage area (large parts of drainage area space are absent in networks), and large variations in network curvature. Longitudinal views of a groundwater‐dominated headwater watershed increase the inference available from limited groundwater observations and clearly reveal how groundwater connections affect the permanence of surface water features and the distribution of vadose zone storage in the landscape. Plotting land uses longitudinally illuminates and allows a quantitative analysis of how land uses are distributed relative to topographic position. Viewing watersheds and stream networks longitudinally can provide new insights into watershed forms and processes and motivate new questions and research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Thermo-Hydro Modeling and Neural Network Surrogate Development for Thermal Resource Assessment of the Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery

The Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery concept explores the use of abandoned coal mine workings for large-scale thermal energy transport and storage. The system involves injecting waste heat from a supercomputing facility into flooded mine galleries, where groundwater flow can store and transport thermal energy for potential recovery in downgradient district heating and cooling applications. To evaluate the feasibility and performance of the Geobattery under geological and operational uncertainty, we developed a suite of stochastic thermo-hydrological (TH) simulations using Monte Carlo sampling of key uncertain parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) and operating conditions (e.g., injection rate, injection temperature). Results identified injection rate and temperature as the most influential parameters governing thermal front propagation, while the geometry of the room-and-pillar structure played a critical role in directing the extent and orientation of thermal advancement. Optimal combinations of material properties for maximizing heat recovery were also determined. To address the high computational cost of coupled-process stochastic modeling, we trained a neural network surrogate model on 24,000 physics-based realizations, achieving an R² > 0.99 and MAE < 0.1 for temperature predictions at monitoring locations. This surrogate enabled an additional 100,000 realizations for global sensitivity analysis and probabilistic thermal resource assessment. The integrated stochastic physics–surrogate modeling framework offers a computationally efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty, identifying key drivers, and informing early-stage design decisions for Geobattery systems.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗