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Land-Use and Land-Cover Change around Mobile Bay, Alabama from 1974-2008

This document summarizes the major findings of a Gulf of Mexico Application Pilot project led by NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) in conjunction with a regional collaboration network of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA). NASA researchers processed and analyzed multi-temporal Landsat data to assess land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes in the coastal counties of Mobile and Baldwin, AL between 1974 and 2008. Our goal was to create satellite-based LULC data products using methods that could be transferable to other coastal areas of concern within the Gulf of Mexico. The Mobile Bay National Estuary Program (MBNEP) is the primary end-user, however, several other state and local groups may benefit from the project s data products that will be available through NOAA-NCDDC s Regional Ecosystem Data Management program. Mobile Bay is a critical ecologic and economic region in the Gulf of Mexico and to the entire country. Mobile Bay was designated as an estuary of national significance in 1996. This estuary receives the fourth largest freshwater inflow in the United States. It provides vital nursery habitat for commercially and recreationally important fish species. It has exceptional aquatic and terrestrial bio-diversity, however, its estuary health is influenced by changing LULC patterns, such as urbanization. Mobile and Baldwin counties have experienced a population growth of 1.1% and 20.5% from 2000-2006. Urban expansion and population growth are likely to accelerate with the construction and operation of the ThyssenKrupp steel mill in the northeast portion of Mobile County. Land-use and land-cover change can negatively impact Gulf coast water quality and ecological resources. The conversion of forest to urban cover types impacts the carbon cycle and increases the freshwater and sediment in coastal waters. Increased freshwater runoff decreases salinity and increases the turbidity of coastal waters, thus impacting the growth potential of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), which is critical nursing ground for many Gulf fish species. A survey of Mobile Bay SAV showed widespread decreases since the 1940s. Prior to our project, coastal environmental managers in Baldwin and Mobile counties needed more understanding of the historical LULC for properly assessing the impacts of urbanization. In particular, more information on the location and extent of changing urbanization LULC patterns was needed to aid LULC planning and to assess predictions of future LULC patterns. Our products will assist the coastal environmental managers and land-use planners in making better community growth planning decisions. Our project also will help to establish a historical baseline of LULC distributions, which is a fundamental need in any stewardship plan. The primary research objective of our project was to produce historic and current geospatial LULC change products across a 34-year time frame. A multi-decadal coastal LULC change product was the major project deliverable. The geographic extent and nature of change was quantified and assessed for the upland herbaceous, barren, open water, urban, upland forest, woody wetland, and non-woody wetlanddominated land cover types. We focused on regional analyses of decadal-scale urban expansion and watershed-scaled analyses of LULC change for multiple areas of concern to the Mobile Bay NEP (Figure A). We used the following dates to derive LULC classification products from Landsat data: 1974, 1979, 1984, 1988, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2005, and 2008. We assessed the accuracy of our products using randomly sampled locations and digital geospatial reference data including field survey data, high resolution orthorectified aerial photography, high resolution multispectral and panchromatic satellite data displays (from QuickBird and Corona sensors), digital elevation model data, and National Wetlands Inventory wetland cover type data. NOAA s Coastal Change Assessment Program s (C-CAP) and National Land Cover Database (NLCD) procts were used for qualitative comparison in assessing map accuracy. We calculated an average overall classification accuracy of 87% with similar overall accuracies for the older (MSS) and newer (TM and ETM) Landsat LULC products.

Ellis, Jean↗

Analysis of Ultra High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Level 4 Datasets

Sea surface temperature (SST) studies are often focused on improving accuracy, or understanding and quantifying uncertainties in the measurement, as SST is a leading indicator of climate change and represents the longest time series of any ocean variable observed from space. Over the past several decades SST has been studied with the use of satellite data. This allows a larger area to be studied with much more frequent measurements being taken than direct measurements collected aboard ship or buoys. The Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) is an international project that distributes satellite derived sea surface temperatures (SST) data from multiple platforms and sensors. The goal of the project is to distribute these SSTs for operational uses such as ocean model assimilation and decision support applications, as well as support fundamental SST research and climate studies. Examples of near real time applications include hurricane and fisheries studies and numerical weather forecasting. The JPL group has produced a new 1 km daily global Level 4 SST product, the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR), that blends SST data from 3 distinct NASA radiometers: the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer ? Earth Observing System(AMSRE). This new product requires further validation and accuracy assessment, especially in coastal regions.We examined the accuracy of the new MUR SST product by comparing the high resolution version and a lower resolution version that has been smoothed to 19 km (but still gridded to 1 km). Both versions were compared to the same data set of in situ buoy temperature measurements with a focus on study regions of the oceans surrounding North and Central America as well as two smaller regions around the Gulf Stream and California coast. Ocean fronts exhibit high temperature gradients (Roden, 1976), and thus satellite data of SST can be used in the detection of these fronts. In this case, accuracy is less of a concern because the primary focus is on the spatial derivative of SST. We calculated the gradients for both versions of the MUR data set and did statistical comparisons focusing on the same regions.

sea surface temperature SST)↗

Using Remote Sensing Data to Evaluate Habitat Loss in the Mobile, Galveston, and Tampa Bay Watersheds

The Gulf of Mexico has experienced dramatic wetland habitat area losses over the last two centuries. These losses not only damage species diversity, but contribute to water quality, flood control, and aspects of the Gulf coast economy. Overall wetland losses since the 1950s were examined using land cover/land use (LCLU) change analysis in three Gulf coast watershed regions: Mobile Bay, Galveston Bay, and Tampa Bay. Two primary causes of this loss, LCLU change and climate change, were then assessed using LCLU maps, U.S. census population data, and available current and historical climate data from NOAA. Sea level rise, precipitation, and temperature effects were addressed, with emphasis on analysis of the effects of sea level rise on salt marsh degradation. Ecological impacts of wetland loss, including fishery depletion, eutrophication, and hypoxia were addressed using existing literature and data available from NOAA. These ecological consequences in turn have had an affect on the Gulf coast economy, which was analyzed using fishery data and addressing public health impacts of changes in the environment caused by wetland habitat loss. While recent federal and state efforts to reduce wetland habitat loss have been relatively successful, this study implies a need for more aggressive action in the Gulf coast area, as the effects of wetland loss reach far beyond individual wetland systems themselves to the Gulf of Mexico as a whole.

Steffen, Morgan↗

Comparing Flood-Producing Catastrophic Hurricanes in GEOS: A Study of Juan 1985 and Harvey 2017

Hurricanes Juan (1985) and Harvey (2017) bear remarkable similarities because of the exceptional amount of accumulated precipitation over coastal regions in the Gulf, consequent to the peculiar and rare situation in which a hurricane stalls for several days on a coastal area, displaying minimal progress. This is particularly dangerous because: a) terrestrial drag affect only part of the circulation so that weakening is not as fast as when there is rapid motion inland; b) a part of the circulation remains over water and as such low-level moisture flux convergence is maintained; c) precipitation lasts for a very long time over the same area; d) moisture recycling from flooded areas further contributes to maintaining flood conditions. From the forecast perspective, hurricanes with track singularities such as stalling points, loops, or multiple landfalls over the same region are exceptionally difficult to predict because they result from small variations of opposing mechanisms and are therefore intrinsically unstable. Intensity fluctuations and track singularities are strongly coupled. The representation of fluxes undergoing differential drag (ocean vs. land) inside the same circulation is critically dependent upon resolution. Recent modeling development efforts within the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) have brought the horizontal resolution of the global cubed-sphere Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric model down to 12 km. This has led to innovative findings in the field of tropical cyclone (TC) modeling within a global framework. The GEOS atmospheric model and data assimilation system (DAS), used to produce the MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis, has a "Replay" capability that adds a forcing term to the model equations to constrain it to follow a specified trajectory. This capability is used to produce global, downscaled versions of the 50 km MERRA-2 reanalysis at a 12.5 km resolution. The full DAS and replay modes both use the Incremental Analysis Update or IAU for applying an analysis increment to the model's background state four times each day at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z. In a full DAS mode, a six-hour free run of the model is made (Predictor Step), writing states that will be used as backgrounds or first-guesses for the analysis centered on 00Z. The Analysis system then produces its best estimate of the 00Z state by blending backgrounds with observations. The difference between this best estimate and the model's original first guess at 00Z is treated as an analysis increment and added uniformly as a forcing term to the model during a second, now forced, run of the 12Z to 03Z window, which produces the assimilated results. Replay mode is very similar, except only the 00Z background is needed from the predictor segment, which is thus half as long, and instead of doing an analysis, a previously analyzed state at 00Z is read in. The increment is then computed and applied to the corrector step in the same way as in the original DAS. When downscaling horizontal spatial filters can be applied to the "analysis" increment used to force the Corrector step, so as to reproduce the full meteorological state or selectively choose or discard certain forcings. In this presentation, full global hindcast simulations of Juan and operational forecasts of Harvey are compared.

Flooding↗

The Utility of the OMI HCHO and NO2 Data Products in Air Quality Decision- Making Activities

We will present three related air quality applications of the OMI HCHO (formaldehyde) and NO2 (nitrogen dioxide) data products, which we us to support mission planning of an OMI-like instrument for the proposed GEO-CAPE satellite that has as one of its objectives to study air quality from space. First, we will discuss a novel and practical application of the data products to the "weight of evidence" in the air quality decision-making process (e.g., State Implementation Plan (SIP)) for a city, region, or state to demonstrate that it is making progress toward attainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone. Any trend, or lack thereof, in the observed OMI HCHO/NO2, which we use as an air quality indicator, may support that an emission control strategy implemented to reduce ozone is or is not occurring for a metropolitan area. Second, we will discuss how we use variations in the OMI HCHO product as a proxy for variability in the biogenic hydrocarbon, isoprene, which is an important player for the formation of high levels of ozone and the dominant source of HCHO in the eastern U.S. Third, we will discuss the variability of NO2 in the U.S. as indicated by the OMI NO2 product. In addition, we will show the impact of the 2005 hurricanes on pollutant emissions, including those associated with the intensive oil extraction and refining activities, in the Gulf of Mexico region using the OMI NO2 product. The variability of HCHO and NO2 as indicated by OMI helps us to understand changes in the OMI HCHO/NO2 and the implications for ozone formation.

Duncan, Bryan N.↗

Nonlinear and linear bottom interaction effects in shallow water

The paper examines wave-energy dissipation rates in shallow water calculated from measured wave spectra at different distances from the shore. Different linear and nonlinear transfer and dissipation mechanisms are discussed. The various data sets are interpreted in terms of prevailing mechanisms at the respective sites. The incorporation of different processes in a predictive shallow-water model is outlined. The analysis suggests that bottom motion is primarily responsible for wave-energy dissipation in the Delta Region of the Gulf of Mexico, that friction is mainly responsible for wave-energy dissipation in Marineland, Panama City and Melkbosstrand, and that percolation is probably the dominant mechanism in the JONSWAP area of the North Sea.

Shemdin, O.↗

A comparison of HCMM surface temperatures with in situ temperature data

All HCMM required were processed. Calibrated and atmospherically corrected sea surface temperatures were developed for the Nantucket Shoals and Gulf of Mexico regions. These data were analyzed and the sea surface temperatures along the various transacts were compared with in situ data. The comparisons indicate that there is, on the average, a root mean square difference between the in situ data and the HCMM sea surface temperatures of + or - 1.0 C. The linear correlation coefficient was 0.97.

Vukovich, F. M.↗

A new parameterization of an empirical model for wind/ocean scatterometry

The power law form of the SEASAT A Scatterometer System (SASS) empirical backscatter-to-wind model function does not uniformly meet the instrument performance over the range 4 to 24 /ms. Analysis indicates that the horizontal polarization (H-Pol) and vertical polarization (V-Pol) components of the benchmark SASS1 model function yield self-consistent results only for a small mid-range of speeds at larger incidence angles, and for a somewhat larger range of speeds at smaller incidence angles. Comparison of SASS1 to in situ data over the Gulf of Alaska region further underscores the shortcomings of the power law form. Finally, a physically based empirical SASS model is proposed which corrects some of the deficiencies of power law models like SASS1. The new model allows the mutual determination of sea surface wind stress and wind speed in a consistent manner from SASS backscatter measurements.

Woiceshyn, P. M.↗

A comparison of surface temperature derived from HCMM infrared measurements with field data

The satellite for the Heat Capacity Mapping Mission (HCMM) was launched on April 26, 1978. The HCMM had the objective to collect data in support of studies concerned with the feasibility of using infrared temperature data to compute the thermal inertia from the earth's surface. The HCMM radiometer had a channel for reflected radiation in the 0.5 to 1.1 micron waveband, and a channel for the infrared radiation in the 10.5 to 12.5 micron band. However, difficulties developed in connection with changes in the characteristics of the radiometer. The present investigation is concerned with a comparison of HCMM infrared temperatures with in situ data from the Mississippi River in the St. Louis, Missouri, area and with sea-surface temperatures collected in the Nantucket Shoals and Gulf of Mexico regions. It was found that, on the average, the difference between satellite in situ data was -4.6 C.

Vukovich, F. M.↗

Intercomparison of preliminary Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) flux estimates and geostationary satellite multi-spectral 'VAS' radiance measurements

Results are reported from a preliminary study to evaluate the level of correlation and, if possible, establish relationships between the spectral radiances sensed by the GOES 6 satellite VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) and the ERBS longwave sensor. A data set for February 7, 1985 was selected which was scanned with both sensors flying over the region of the Gulf of Mexico. Techniques applied to enhance the equivalence of the data are delineated. Regression equations were applied to assess the levels of correlations for each subsatellite point compared.

Herman, L. D.↗

Parametric analysis of synthetic aperture radar data for characterization of deciduous forest stands

The SAR sensor parameters that affect the estimation of deciduous forest stand characteristics were examined using data sets for the Gulf Coastal Plain region, acquired by the NASA/JPL multipolarization airborne SAR. In the regression analysis, the mean digital-number values of the three polarization data are used as the independent variables to estimate the average tree height (HT), basal area (BA), and total-tree biomass (TBM). The following results were obtained: (1) in the case of simple regression and using 28 plots, vertical-vertical (VV) polarization yielded the largest correlation coefficients (r) in estimating HT, BA, and TBM; (2) in the case of multiple regression, the horizontal-horizontal (HH) and VV polarization combination yielded the largest r value in estimating HT, while the VH and HH polarization combination yielded the largest r values in estimating BA and TBM. With the addition of a third polarization, the increase in r values is insignificant.

Wu, Shih-Tseng↗

Cloud-screening for Africa using a geographically and seasonally variable infrared threshold

A spatially variable monthly, infrared cloud-threshold data base has been used to screen cloud-contaminated observations from radiances measured by the NOAA-9 AVHRR over Africa. Cloud-screening through a monthly average infrared threshold based on measured surface air temperature, which is geographically dependent, shows an improvement over using a seasonally and geographically independent thermal cloud threshold of 287 K. It is found that differences in cloud-screening for these two thresholds occur for cases of lower altitude clouds or subpixel clouds where the radiative temperature is higher than the 287 K infrared threshold, yet colder than the variable threshold developed by Stowe et al. (1988) for the Nimbus-7 global cloud climatology. The variable IR threshold is shown to be effective over persistently cloud-covered regions, such as the coastal region of the Gulf of Guinea, but may introduce some erroneous cloud identifications over mountains.

Eck, T. F.↗

Variability in the Gulf of Alaska from Geosat altimetry data

Satellite altimetry was used to examine annual and interannual variability in the Gulf of Alaska region. Crossover data from the Geosat Geodetic Mission (GM) and collinear data from the Exact Repeat Mission (ERM) were processed separately to form sea surface height anomalies at grid points. The time series from the GM and ERM were then combined to produce a 3.75-year data set. The time series from the ERM data set agreed fairly well with hydrographic dynamic heights at several locations, with an average correlation of 0.70 between the two data sets. The combined and ERM altimetric data sets were analyzed using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). These revealed variability that occurs primarily on annual and interannual time scales. A comparison with EOF analysis of the atmospheric pressure field during the same time periods showed that the annual variation in pressure seemed to be reflected in both the combined and ERM altimetric data sets. The amplitude time series of the first mode in the combined data set was very similar to the North Pacific pressure index during the 1985-1989 time frame. The maximum correlation was at a lag of 250 days. Finally, an interannual mode was present in all three data sets which was closely linked to the baroclinic variations measured by the hydrographic data.

Bhaskaran, Shyam↗

The Transition of NASA EOS Datasets to WFO Operations: A Model for Future Technology Transfer

The collocation of a National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office with atmospheric scientists from NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama has afforded a unique opportunity for science sharing and technology transfer. Specifically, the NWS office in Huntsville has interacted closely with research scientists within the SPORT (Short-term Prediction and Research and Transition) Center at MSFC. One significant technology transfer that has reaped dividends is the transition of unique NASA EOS polar orbiting datasets into NWS field operations. NWS forecasters primarily rely on the AWIPS (Advanced Weather Information and Processing System) decision support system for their day to day forecast and warning decision making. Unfortunately, the transition of data from operational polar orbiters or low inclination orbiting satellites into AWIPS has been relatively slow due to a variety of reasons. The ability to integrate these high resolution NASA datasets into operations has yielded several benefits. The MODIS (MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer ) instrument flying on the Aqua and Terra satellites provides a broad spectrum of multispectral observations at resolutions as fine as 250m. Forecasters routinely utilize these datasets to locate fine lines, boundaries, smoke plumes, locations of fog or haze fields, and other mesoscale features. In addition, these important datasets have been transitioned to other WFOs for a variety of local uses. For instance, WFO Great Falls Montana utilizes the MODIS snow cover product for hydrologic planning purposes while several coastal offices utilize the output from the MODIS and AMSR-E instruments to supplement observations in the data sparse regions of the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. In the short term, these datasets have benefited local WFOs in a variety of ways. In the longer term, the process by which these unique datasets were successfully transitioned to operations will benefit the planning and implementation of products and datasets derived from both NPP and NPOESS. This presentation will provide a brief overview of current WFO usage of satellite data, the transition of datasets between SPORT and the N W S , and lessons learned for future transition efforts.

Darden, C.↗

Estimates of Lightning NOx Production Based on OMI NO2 Observations Over the Gulf of Mexico

We evaluate nitrogen oxide (NO(sub x) NO + NO2) production from lightning over the Gulf of Mexico region using data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aboard NASAs Aura satellite along with detection efficiency-adjusted lightning data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). A special algorithm was developed to retrieve the lightning NOx [(LNO(sub x)] signal from OMI. The algorithm in its general form takes the total slant column NO2 from OMI and removes the stratospheric contribution and tropospheric background and includes an air mass factor appropriate for the profile of lightning NO(sub x) to convert the slant column LNO2 to a vertical column of LNO(sub x). WWLLN flashes are totaled over a period of 3 h prior to OMI overpass, which is the time an air parcel is expected to remain in a 1 deg. x 1 deg. grid box. The analysis is conducted for grid cells containing flash counts greater than a threshold value of 3000 flashes that yields an expected LNO(sub x) signal greater than the background. Pixels with cloud radiance fraction greater than a criterion value (0.9) indicative of highly reflective clouds are used. Results for the summer seasons during 2007-2011 yield mean LNO(sub x) production of approximately 80 +/- 45 mol per flash over the region for the two analysis methods after accounting for biases and uncertainties in the estimation method. These results are consistent with literature estimates and more robust than many prior estimates due to the large number of storms considered but are sensitive to several substantial sources of uncertainty.

Lightning↗

NASA Earth Observations Track the Gulf Oil Spill

The NASA Applied Sciences Program created the Gulf of Mexico Initiative (GOMI) in 2007 "to enhance the region s ability to recover from the devastating hurricanes of 2005 and to address its coastal management issues going into the future." The GOMI utilizes NASA Earth science assets to address regional priorities defined by the Gulf of Mexico Alliance, a partnership formed by the states of Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, along with 13 federal agencies and 4 regional organizations to promote regional collaboration and enhance the ecological and economic health of the Gulf of Mexico. NASA's GOMI is managed by the Applied Science and Technology Project Office at Stennis Space Center and has awarded over $18 million in Gulf of Mexico research since 2008. After the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, GOMI personnel assisted members of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance with obtaining NASA remote sensing data for use in their oil spill response efforts.

Jones, Jason B.↗

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast – Part 2: Circulation, Boundary Layer, and Clouds

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) is a complex land-ocean-atmosphere system that experiences a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, which in turn drive unique aerosol transport pathways, cloud morphologies, and boundary layer variability. This work, Part 2 of a 2-part paper series, provides an overview of the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three-dimensional cloud structure, and precipitation over the WNAO; the companion paper (Part 1) focused on chemical characterization of aerosols, gases, and wet deposition.Seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature explain a clear transition in cloud morphologies from small shallow cumulus clouds, convective clouds, and tropical storms in summer, to stratus/stratocumulus and multi-layer cloud systems associated with winter storms. Synoptic variability in cloud fields is estimated using satellite-based weather states, and the role of postfrontal conditions (cold-air outbreaks) in the development of stratiform clouds is further analyzed. Precipitation is persistent over the ocean, with a regional peak over the Gulf Stream path, where offshore sea surface temperature gradients are large and surface fluxes reach a regional peak. Satellite data show a clear annual cycle in cloud droplet number concentration with maxima (minima) along the coast in winter (summer), suggesting a marked annual cycle in aerosol-cloud interactions. Compared with satellite cloud retrievals, four climate models qualitatively reproduce the annual cycle in cloud cover and liquid water path, but with large discrepancies across models, especially in the extra-tropics. The paper concludes with a summary of outstanding issues and recommendations for future work.

David Painemal↗

Radiative effects of the smoke clouds from the Kuwait oil fires

The radiative effects of the smoke from the Kuwait oil fires were assessed by measuring downwelling and upwelling solar flux, as well as spectral solar extinction beneath, above, and within the smoke plume. Seven radiation flight missions were undertaken between May 16 and June 2, 1991, to characterize the plume between the source region in Kuwait and approximately 200 km south, near Manama, Bahrain. Results are presented from one flight representative of conditions of the composite plume. On May 18, 1991, in a homogeneous, well-mixed region of smoke approximately 100 km downstream of the fires, visible optical depths as high as 2 were measured, at which time transmission to the surface was 8 percent, while 78 percent of the solar radiation was absorbed by the smoke. The calculated instantaneous heating rate inside the plume reached 24 K/d. While these effects are probably typical of those regions in the Persian Gulf area directly covered by the smoke, there is no evidence to suggest significant climatic effects in other regions.

Pilewskie, Peter↗