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At least 73 records · Page 4

Development and Field Testing Novel Natural Gas Surface Process Equipment for Replacement of Water as Primary Hydraulic Fracturing Fluid (Final Report)

Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI ® ), Schlumberger Technology Corporation (SLB), and Chevron Corporation ® (Chevron) developed a novel, optimized, and lightweight process for natural gas (NG) to replace water as a low-cost fracturing medium with a low environmental impact. Hydraulic fracturing is used to increase oil and NG production by injecting high-pressure fluid, primarily water, into a rock formation, which fractures the rock and releases trapped oil and NG. This method was developed to increase yield and make feasible production areas that would not otherwise be viable for large-scale oil and NG extraction using traditional drilling technologies. Since the fracturing fluid is composed of approximately 90% water, one of the principal drawbacks to hydraulic fracturing is its excessive water use and associated large environmental footprint. According to recent data collected at fracture sites within the United States, fracturing applications in North America can consume as much as 9 million gallons of water per well. During the fracturing process, some of the fracturing fluid is permanently lost and the portion that is recovered is contaminated by both fracturing chemicals and dissolved solids from the formation. The recovered water or flow-back represents a significant environmental challenge, as it must be treated before it can be reintroduced into the natural water system. Although there is some recycling for future fracturing, the majority of the flow-back water is hauled from the well site to a treatment facility or to an injection well for permanent underground disposal. To mitigate these issues, an optimized, lightweight and modular surface process using NG to replace a majority of the water was developed as a cost-effective and environmentally clean fracturing fluid. Using NG will result in significantly less consumption since the gas that is injected as a fracturing fluid will be mixed with the formation gas and extracted as if it were from the formation itself. This process will minimize the collection, waste, and treatment of large amounts of water and will reduce the environmental impact of transporting and storing the fracturing fluid. There are two major steps involved in utilizing NG as the primary fracturing medium: (1) increasing the supply pressure of NG to wellhead pressures suitable for fracturing and (2) mixing the required chemicals and proppant needed for the fracturing process at these elevated pressures. The second step (NG-proppant mixing at elevated pressures) still requires demonstration; but very similar processes have been demonstrated in the field with other gases such as nitrogen (N 2 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). However, the first step (a compact, on-site unit for generating high-pressure NG at costs feasible for fracturing) has not been developed and is currently not commercially available. Due to the inherent compressibility of NG, more energy is required to compress the gas than what is required to pump water (or other incompressible liquids) to the very high pressure required for downhole injection. This project aimed to develop a novel, hybrid method to overcome this challenge. The project accomplishments and findings are discussed in this report. Ultimately, the research and development efforts described herein demonstrate that fracturing with NG foam is a feasible alternative to using water.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Trash-to-Gas: Using Waste Products to Minimize Logistical Mass During Long Duration Space Missions

Just as waste-to-energy processes utilizing municipal landftll and biomass wastes are finding increased terrestrial uses, the Trash-to-Gas (TtG) project seeks to convert waste generated during spaceflight into high value commodities. These include methane for propulsion and water for life support in addition to a variety of other gasses. TtG is part of the Logistic Reduction and Repurposing (LRR) project under the NASA Advanced Exploration Systems Program. The LRR project will enable a largely mission-independent approach to minimize logistics contributions to total mission architecture mass. LRR includes technologies that reduce the amount of consumables that need to be sent to space, repurpose items sent to space, or convert wastes to commodities. Currently, waste generated on the International Space Station is stored inside a logistic module which is de-orbited into Earth's atmosphere for destruction. The waste consists of food packaging, food, clothing and other items. This paper will discuss current results on incineration as a waste processing method. Incineration is part of a two step process to produce methane from waste: first the waste is converted to carbon oxides; second, the carbon oxides are fed to a Sabatier reactor where they are converted to methane. The quantities of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, methane and water were measured under the different thermal degradation conditions. The overall carbon conversion efficiency and water recovery are discussed.

Hintze, Paul. E.↗

Trash-to-Gas: Using Waste Products to Minimize Logistical Mass During Long Duration Space Missions

Just as waste-to-energy processes utilizing municipal landftll and biomass wastes are finding increased terrestrial uses, the Trash-to-Gas (TtG) project seeks to convert waste generated during spaceflight into high value commodities. These include methane for propulsion and water for life support in addition to a variety of other gasses. TtG is part of the Logistic Reduction and Repurposing (LRR) project under the NASA Advanced Exploration Systems Program. The LRR project will enable a largely mission-independent approach to minimize logistics contributions to total mission architecture mass. LRR includes technologies that reduce the amount of consumables that need to be sent to space, repurpose items sent to space, or convert wastes to commodities. Currently, waste generated on the International Space Station is stored inside a logistic module which is de-orbited into Earth's atmosphere for destruction. The waste consists of food packaging, food, clothing and other items. This paper will discuss current results on incineration as a waste processing method. Incineration is part of a two step process to produce methane from waste: first the waste is converted to carbon oxides; second, the carbon oxides are fed to a Sabatier reactor where they are converted to methane. The quantities of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, methane and water were measured under the different thermal degradation conditions. The overall carbon conversion efficiency and water recovery are discussed

Hintze, Paul E.↗

Foam Fracturing Study for Stimulation Development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems

The large thermal gradients and high subsurface temperatures of the western region of the U.S. hold great potential for the implementation of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). The development of these potential EGS resources requires stimulation of the reservoir to enhance permeability and it has been widely reported that a substantial amount of water will be required should conventional hydraulic stimulation be used. This presents a huge challenge and a high risk to the geothermal development because the water stress1 in these areas is already high or extremely high. The use of foam, a gas/liquid mixture predominantly composed of gas, in fracturing is considered and explored in this project as a potential approach to address water concerns with hydraulic stimulation in the development of EGS. This project, led by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in collaboration with Temple University, was awarded in an open lab call in 2018, and was part of the DOE GTO waterless stimulation initiative. The goal of the project was to demonstrate the feasibility of foam fracturing for EGS development through two primary tasks: Task 1: Laboratory study of the effectiveness of foam fracturing for representative geological materials, including cyclic pressurization using foam (led by ORNL) and Task 2: High temperature foam material selection and characterization (led by Temple University). In FY19, ORNL finished the critical review on serval issues associated with foam fracturing and the implementation of the proposed tasks in a lab study (Wang, et al., 2019), and completed the foam fracturing testing using cement as a model material (Wang, et al, 2020a). The work at ORNL was geared up to develop a brand-new foam testing system in FY20. The purchase of main components for the new system was finished in the first half of the FY20. The assembly of the foam testing system and foam fracturing testing were completed in the second half of the FY20 (Wang, et al., 2021a). Task 1 required the development of a test system which can be used to perform hydraulic fracturing of geological specimens with both water and foamed liquids at pressure up to 6,000 psi (41.4 MPa). The system possesses several capabilities that conventional injection systems lack for hydraulic fracturing. In addition to its ability to generate foam with controlled quality, it is capable of cycling pressure levels between specified values up to frequencies of 50 Hz. The latter capability was developed to evaluate the hypothesis that cyclic loading of samples would produce enhanced fracturing. The system consists of two sections: one for foam generation and another for foam injection. The foam is generated through separate control and pressurization of liquid and gas phases with controlled flow rates. The injection section is equipped with a low-flow Coriolis flow that monitors the density of foam to ensure the injection is in the range of target foam quality2. Experimental results of foam fracturing are reported for cylindrical granite specimens using water and aqueous N2 foam as the fracturing fluids. All experiments were performed for unconfined conditions. The effects of injection mode (i.e., monotonic vs cyclic pressurization) on breakdown pressure and failure response sample were investigated using water alone as a fracturing fluid and foams with a range of compositions. It was found that in the case of monotonic injection, the breakdown pressure of granite specimens tended to be slightly higher when fracturing with foam. Additionally, with a foam quality of 90%, the water use can be reduced by 50 to 84%, depending on hole size. On the other hand, it was observed that the breakdown pressure can be brought down to 70% of the monotonic breakdown pressure by using low cycle fatigue. Finally, discussions are presented regarding injectivity and water use reduction.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Assessment of the Impact of the California Water Project on the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley

Changes in the regional scale parameters used to characterize the nature of area transformation caused by the California State Water Project are analyzed. Data were taken from Mission 164 and ERTS high flight simulation imagery. Indicators considered cover general and urban oriented land use, general and problem oriented vegetation, irrigation systems, and identification of crops.

John E. Estes↗

Overview of High Speed Close-Up Imaging in an Icing Environment

The Icing Branch and Imaging Technology Center at NASA Glenn Research Center have recently been involved in several projects where high speed close-up imaging was used to investigate water droplet impact/splash, and also ice particle impact/bounce in an icing wind tunnel. The combination of close-up and high speed imaging capabilities were required because the particles being studied were relatively small (d < 1 mm in diameter), and the impact process occurred in a very short time period (t(sub impact) << 1 sec). High speed close-up imaging was utilized to study the dynamics of droplet impact and splash in simulated Supercooled Large Droplet (SLD) icing conditions. The objective of this test was to evaluate the capability of a ultra high speed camera system to acquire quantitative information about the impact process (e.g., droplet size, velocity). Imaging data were obtained in an icing wind tunnel for spray cloud MVD > 50 m. High speed close-up imaging was also utilized to characterize the impact of ice particles on an airfoil with a thermally protected leading edge. The objective of this investigation was to determine whether ice particles tend to "stick" or "bounce" after impact. Imaging data were obtained for cases where the airfoil surface was heated and unheated. Based on the results from this test, follow on tests were conducted to investigate ice particle impact on the sensing elements of water content measurement devices. This paper will describe the use of the imaging systems to support these experimental investigations, present some representative results, and summarize what was learned about the use of these systems in an icing environment.

Miller, Dean R.↗

EVA 2010: Preparing for International Space Station EVA Operations Post-Space Shuttle Retirement

The expected retirement of the NASA Space Transportation System (also known as the Space Shuttle ) by 2011 will pose a significant challenge to Extra-Vehicular Activities (EVA) on-board the International Space Station (ISS). The EVA hardware currently used to assemble and maintain the ISS was designed assuming that it would be returned to Earth on the Space Shuttle for refurbishment, or if necessary for failure investigation. With the retirement of the Space Shuttle, a new concept of operations was developed to enable EVA hardware (Extra-vehicular Mobility Unit (EMU), Airlock Systems, EVA tools, and associated support hardware and consumables) to perform ISS EVAs until 2015, and possibly beyond to 2020. Shortly after the decision to retire the Space Shuttle was announced, the EVA 2010 Project was jointly initiated by NASA and the OneEVA contractor team. The challenges addressed were to extend the operating life and certification of EVA hardware, to secure the capability to launch EVA hardware safely on alternate launch vehicles, to protect for EMU hardware operability on-orbit, and to determine the source of high water purity to support recharge of PLSSs (no longer available via Shuttle). EVA 2010 Project includes the following tasks: the development of a launch fixture that would allow the EMU Portable Life Support System (PLSS) to be launched on-board alternate vehicles; extension of the EMU hardware maintenance interval from 3 years (current certification) to a minimum of 6 years (to extend to 2015); testing of recycled ISS Water Processor Assembly (WPA) water for use in the EMU cooling system in lieu of water resupplied by International Partner (IP) vehicles; development of techniques to remove & replace critical components in the PLSS on-orbit (not routine); extension of on-orbit certification of EVA tools; and development of an EVA hardware logistical plan to support the ISS without the Space Shuttle. Assumptions for the EVA 2010 Project included no more than 8 EVAs per year for ISS EVA operations in the Post-Shuttle environment and limited availability of cargo upmass on IP launch vehicles. From 2010 forward, EVA operations on-board the ISS without the Space Shuttle will be a paradigm shift in safely operating EVA hardware on orbit and the EVA 2010 effort was initiated to accommodate this significant change in EVA evolutionary history.

Chullen, Cinda↗

Post-Shuttle EVA Operations on ISS

The expected retirement of the NASA Space Transportation System (also known as the Space Shuttle ) by 2011 will pose a significant challenge to Extra-Vehicular Activities (EVA) on-board the International Space Station (ISS). The EVA hardware currently used to assemble and maintain the ISS was designed assuming that it would be returned to Earth on the Space Shuttle for refurbishment, or if necessary for failure investigation. With the retirement of the Space Shuttle, a new concept of operations was developed to enable EVA hardware (Extra-vehicular Mobility Unit (EMU), Airlock Systems, EVA tools, and associated support hardware and consumables) to perform ISS EVAs until 2015, and possibly beyond to 2020. Shortly after the decision to retire the Space Shuttle was announced, the EVA 2010 Project was jointly initiated by NASA and the One EVA contractor team. The challenges addressed were to extend the operating life and certification of EVA hardware, to secure the capability to launch EVA hardware safely on alternate launch vehicles, to protect for EMU hardware operability on-orbit, and to determine the source of high water purity to support recharge of PLSSs (no longer available via Shuttle). EVA 2010 Project includes the following tasks: the development of a launch fixture that would allow the EMU Portable Life Support System (PLSS) to be launched on-board alternate vehicles; extension of the EMU hardware maintenance interval from 3 years (current certification) to a minimum of 6 years (to extend to 2015); testing of recycled ISS Water Processor Assembly (WPA) water for use in the EMU cooling system in lieu of water resupplied by International Partner (IP) vehicles; development of techniques to remove & replace critical components in the PLSS on-orbit (not routine); extension of on-orbit certification of EVA tools; and development of an EVA hardware logistical plan to support the ISS without the Space Shuttle. Assumptions for the EVA 2010 Project included no more than 8 EVAs per year for ISS EVA operations in the Post-Shuttle environment and limited availability of cargo upmass on IP launch vehicles. From 2010 forward, EVA operations on-board the ISS without the Space Shuttle will be a paradigm shift in safely operating EVA hardware on orbit and the EVA 2010 effort was initiated to accommodate this significant change in EVA evolutionary history. 1

West, William↗

Modular SOEC System for Efficient H 2 Production at High Current Density

The overall objective of the project was to demonstrate the potential of Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell (SOEC) systems to produce hydrogen at a cost of $\$$2.00/kg H 2 or less (excluding delivery, compression, storage, and dispensing). An additional objective of the project was to enhance Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell (SOEC) stack endurance and impart subsystem robustness for operation on load profiles compatible with intermittent renewable energy sources. The project was designed to achieve the overall objectives through a multi-disciplinary approach that included SOEC stack and materials development, systems development and optimization, techno-economic analyses, and ultimately the demonstration of a > 4 kg H 2 /day SOEC system. The scope of work included research and development efforts to develop an advanced, high temperature, water splitting (HTWS) system with superior performance and durability relative to the current state-of-the-art. In support of the aforementioned goals, the project activities included: 1) Develop and test cell materials with improved endurance at high current densities; 2) Design and fabricate a >4 kg H 2 /day SOEC stack optimized for high efficiency operation in the range of 1 - 2 A/cm 2 ; 3) Perform stack testing under simulated system conditions; 4) Perform systems analysis including configuration and parametric studies, to maximize SOEC system efficiency and minimize H 2 production costs; 5) Develop the conceptual design of a >4 kg H 2 /day thermally self-sustaining SOEC demonstration system including stack module and balance of plant (BoP).

08 HYDROGEN↗

CROCUS High-Frequency Measurements of CO₂, H₂O, Wind, and Temperature at University of Illinois Chicago

As of April 9, 2026: this dataset is currently being versioned to include data up to March 31, 2026. Once the versioning process is complete, new data files will be available for access. The dataset metadata will also be updated to reflect the data availability of the new data being versioned. Raw atmospheric measurements collected at the University of Illinois Chicago (UIC) as part of the Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) project. The data includes high-frequency measurements of carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration, water vapor (H₂O) concentration, wind speed (U, V, W components), temperature, and atmospheric pressure. These raw data are recorded by the LI-7500DS Open Path CO₂/H₂O Analyzer and a sonic anemometer at a 10 Hz acquisition frequency, providing the necessary inputs for calculating fluxes of CO₂, H₂O, heat, and momentum. In addition to gas concentration measurements, the dataset includes diagnostic information from the instruments, including absorptance, sample and reference signals, and diagnostic values. The data were collected to study urban atmospheric conditions and contribute to flux calculations for urban climate research. These measurements form the basis for calculating 30-minute average fluxes of key atmospheric variables using the eddy covariance method. This dataset provides critical raw input data for researchers interested in atmospheric fluxes, urban air quality, and the interaction between the urban environment and atmospheric processes. The data is part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program, under the CROCUS Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (UIFL) project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-model Hydroclimate Projections for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the Southeastern United States

Abstract This study uses a high-resolution, process-based modeling framework to assess the impacts of changing climate on water resources for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the southeastern United States. A 33-member ensemble of hydrologic projections was generated using 3 distributed hydrologic models (Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, Variable Infiltration Capacity, and Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model) of different complexity. These hydrologic models were driven by dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected future climate simulations from 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario, with 40 years each in baseline (1966–2005) and future (2011–2050) periods. The hydroclimate response, in general, projects an increase in mean seasonal precipitation, runoff, and streamflow. The high and low flows are projected to increase and decrease, respectively, in general, suggesting increased likelihood of extreme rainfall events and intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The uncertainty associated with the ensemble hydroclimate response, analyzed through an analysis of variance technique, suggests that the choice of climate model is more critical than the choice of hydrologic model for the studied region. This study provides in-depth insights of hydroclimate response and associated uncertainties to support informed decisions by water resource managers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increasing precipitation whiplash in climate change hotspots

Abstract Throughout the world, the hydrologic cycle is projected to become more variable due to climate change, posing challenges in semi-arid regions with high water resource vulnerability. Precipitation whiplash results from hydrologic variability, and refers to interannual shifts between wet (⩾80th historical percentile) and dry (⩽20th historical percentile) years. Using five model large ensembles, we show that whiplash is projected to increase in frequency (25%–60%) and intensity (30%–100%) by 2100 across several semi-arid regions of the globe, including Western North America and the Mediterranean. These changes can be driven by increases in the frequency of wet years or dry years, or both, depending on the region. Moisture budget calculations in these regions illuminate the physical mechanisms behind increased whiplash. Thermodynamic changes generally dominate, with modulations by dynamics, evaporation, and eddies on regional or global scales. These findings highlight increasingly volatile hydrology in semi-arid regions as the 21st Century progresses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Changes in the Regional Water Cycle and Their Impact on Societies

ABSTRACT Changes in “blue water”, which is the total supply of fresh water available for human extraction over land, are quite closely related to changes in runoff or equivalently precipitation minus evaporation, . This article examines how climate change‐driven recent past and future changes in the regional water cycle relate to blue water availability and changes in human blue water demand. Although at the largest scales theoretical and numerical model predictions are in broad agreement with observations, at continental scales and below models predict large ranges of possible future and runoff especially at the scale of individual river catchments and for shorter timescale subseasonal floods and droughts. Nevertheless, it is expected that the occurrence and severity of floods will increase and that of droughts may increase, possibly compounded by human‐driven non‐climatic changes such as changes in land use, dam water impoundment, irrigation and extraction of groundwater. Contemporary assessments predict that increases in 21st century human water extraction in many highly‐populated regions are unlikely to be sustainable given projections of future . To reduce uncertainty in future predictions, there is an urgent need to improve modeling of atmospheric, land surface and human processes and how these components are coupled. This should be supported by maintaining the observing network and expanding it to improve measurements of land surface, oceanic and atmospheric variables. This includes the development of satellite observations stable over multiple decades and suitable for building reanalysis datasets appropriate for model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Do it yourself remote sensing: Generating an inexpensive, high tech, real science lake mapping project for the classroom

The utilization of modest equipment and software revealed bottom contours and water column conditions of a dynamic water body. Classroom discussions of field techniques and equipment capabilities followed by exercises with the data sets in cause-and-effect analysis all contributed to participatory education in the process of science. This project is presented as a case study of the value of engaging secondary and collegiate level students in planning, executing and appraising a real world investigation which they can directly relate to. A 1 km wide bay, experiencing marsh inflow, along an 8 km long lake situated 120 km north of Ottawa, Canada, on the glaciated Canadian Precambrian Shield was mapped in midsummer for submerged topography, bottom composition, temperature profile, turbudity, dissolved oxygen and biota distribution. Low level aerial photographs scanned into image processing software are permitting spatial classification of bottom variations in biology and geology. Instrumentation consisted of a portable sport fishing SONAR depth finder, an electronic lead line multiprobe with photocell, thermistor and dissolved oxygen sensors, a selective depth water sampler, portable pH meter, an underwater camera mounted on a home-made platform with a bottom-contact trigger and a disposable underwater camera for shallow survey work. Sampling transects were referenced using a Brunton hand transit triangulating several shore markers.

Metzger, Stephen M.↗

Water Shelf Life for Long-Duration Rodent Research Missions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Rodent Research Project habitat is a highly-specialized rodent husbandry caging system that enables mice to be flown to the International Space Station for a variety of bioscience studies in the unique microgravity and radiation environment. The habitat accommodates an internal water supply box containing four water access points and two one liter flexible plastic sterile blood bags for storage. Two access points are provided on each side of the habitat, which accommodates five animals per side. Due to the nature of operations on the Space Station – including limited fluid handling – water cannot be changed out weekly as in ground-based vivariums. Water is added to the system a maximum of eighteen months prior to being provided to rodents. The dependable provision of high-quality drinking water is essential for both the welfare of rodents and the scientific integrity of the studies in which they are involved. The robust, multi-stage water preparation process involves the autoclave sterilization of deionized water, the addition of iodine to minimize biofilms, and filtration through a sterile filter to ensure removal of bacteria and other contaminants. The water is then loaded into the sterile blood bags as part of the automated delivery system. A water storage test determined that the shelf life of this water in the habitat could be increased up to four years from a previous eighteen months. This facilitates the ability to pre-position habitats on Station as well as demonstrates that the habitat’s water system can be utilized on future long-duration and deep space missions involving rodents.

Tyler Marsh↗

Greater vulnerability of snowmelt-fed river thermal regimes to a warming climate

While the advective flux from cool melt runoff can be a significant source of thermal energy to mountainous rivers, it has been a much less addressed process in river temperature modeling and thus our understanding is limited with respect to the spatiotemporal effect of melt on river temperatures at the watershed scale. In particular, the extent and magnitude of the melt cooling effect in the context of a warming climate are not yet well understood. To address this knowledge gap, we improved a coupled hydrology and stream temperature modeling system, Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model and River Basin Model (DHSVM-RBM), to account for the thermal effect of cool snowmelt runoff on river temperatures. The model was applied to a snow-fed river basin in the Pacific Northwest to evaluate the responses of snow, hydrology, stream temperatures, and potential fish growth to future climates. Historical simulations suggest that snowmelt can notably reduce the basin-wide peak summer temperatures particularly at high-elevation tributaries, while the thermal impacts of melt water can persist through the summer along the mainstem. Ensemble climate projections suggested that a warming climate will decrease basin mean peak snow and summer streamflow by 92% and 60% by the end of the century. Due to the compounded influences of warmer temperatures, lower flows and diminished cooling from melt, rivers reaches in high elevation snow-dominated areas were projected to be most vulnerable to future climate change, showing the largest increases in summer peak temperatures. As a result, thermal habitat used by anadromous Pacific salmon was projected to exhibit substantially lower growth potential during summer in future. These results have demonstrated the necessity of accounting for snowmelt influence on stream temperature modeling in mountainous watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Severe 21st-century ocean acidification in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas

Antarctic coastal waters are home to several established or proposed Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) supporting exceptional biodiversity. Despite being threatened by anthropogenic climate change, uncertainties remain surrounding the future ocean acidification (OA) of these waters. Here we present 21st-century projections of OA in Antarctic MPAs under four emission scenarios using a high-resolution ocean–sea ice–biogeochemistry model with realistic ice-shelf geometry. By 2100, we project pH declines of up to 0.36 (total scale) for the top 200 m. Vigorous vertical mixing of anthropogenic carbon produces severe OA throughout the water column in coastal waters of proposed and existing MPAs. Consequently, end-of-century aragonite undersaturation is ubiquitous under the three highest emission scenarios. Given the cumulative threat to marine ecosystems by environmental change and activities such as fishing, our findings call for strong emission-mitigation efforts and further management strategies to reduce pressures on ecosystems, such as the continuation and expansion of Antarctic MPAs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗