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DOE OSTI2020

Rossi-alpha Uncertainty Quantification by Analytic, Bootstrap, and Sample Methods to Inform Fitting Best Practices

The prompt neutron period (the negative reciprocal of the prompt neutron decay constant) can be estimated using the Rossi-alpha technique that is predicated on fitting Rossi alpha histograms and of interest in nuclear criticality safety and nonproliferation. The histograms are traditionally fit with a one-exponential model; however, recent work has proposed a two-exponential model to account for reflector induced phenomenon. Until recently, the uncertainty quantification for either model was inadequate (inaccurate and demanded large measurement times). Measurement uncertainty quantification by sample and analytic methods was developed and validated in Ref. The purpose of this transaction is to (i) validate a new bootstrap method by comparing bin-by-bin error bar estimates and (ii) demonstrate how to choose bin widths and reset times to optimize precision and accuracy.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Two-Exponential Rossi-Alpha Analysis of Copper- and Polyethylene-Reflected Plutonium

The prompt neutron decay constant $\mathcal{α}$, which is used to infer reactivity, is estimated using the Rossi-alpha technique that is predicated on fitting Rossi-alpha histograms. The histograms are traditionally fit with a one-exponential model; however, recent work has proposed a two-exponential model to account for reflector-induced phenomenon. Recent work also validated the two-exponential model for shields, a subset of reflectors, but not for reflectors in general. Ultimately, it is desirable to validate the two-exponential model for the general shield. This work will investigate if previous 3 He measurements of plutonium reflected by copper and polyethylene, and replacement measurements where the plutonium is replaced by 252 Cf are suitable for validating the new model. Since the 3 He detectors ( 3 He gas proportional counters embedded in a polyethylene matrix) inherently contain moderating/reflector material (to increase detection efficiency), this work also investigates the use of organic scintillation detectors that can directly detect fast, fission neutrons.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Correcting for digital image correlation speckle inversion at high temperature using color cameras

Digital image correlation (DIC) is a popular, noncontacting technique to measure full-field deformation by using cameras to track the motion of an applied surface pattern. Because it is noncontacting, DIC can be performed for extreme temperature applications (e.g., hot-fire rocket testing of carbon composite rocket nozzles) under harsh conditions during which bonded gauges are damaged. Speckle pattern inversion is a phenomenon that sometimes occurs while performing high-temperature DIC. During speckle pattern inversion, portions of the surface pattern that were initially darker at room temperature (e.g., graphite) may emit more light due to blackbody radiation than the portions that were initially paler, thereby producing images in which the pattern appears inverted at high temperature relative to the initial pattern at room temperature. This phenomenon can prevent the correlation algorithm from being able to resolve the displacements between images. This work compares three methods to mitigate speckle pattern inversion: (A) the subtraction method, a recently-published technique in which two high-temperature images are subtracted to remove unwanted light; (B) the filtering method, a popular technique in which optical bandpass filters screen out unwanted light; and (C) the histogram rescaling method, a proposed new method that pairs a color camera with a blue light source and uses information from the green sensor of the camera to correct against inversion in the blue sensor through postprocessing. The histogram rescaling method is shown to successfully eliminate speckle pattern inversion and has the added advantages that it does not require quasi-static loading to be able to compensate for speckle pattern inversion, nor does it impose thick-glass distortions caused by the optical filter.

Rowley, Lindsey J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

NOvA Inclusive Nue CC Cross Section Data Release

NOvA inclusive electron neutrino cross section results presented at Neutrino2020Exposure:8.09E20 protons-on-target, neutrino-enhanced beamData release contains 3 ROOT files containing the double-differential measurement with respect to electron angle (cos theta) and electron energy, a single-differential measurement with respect to squared four-momentum transfer (Q2), and the total cross section as a function of neutrino energy. The 1D cross-section measurements include the same kinematic phase space restrictions present in the double-differential analysis.The files, xsec_{dThdE/Enu/dQ2}.root, contain the extracted cross section and associated covariance matrices for the double-differential cross section with respect to the observed electron kinematics, dThdE, neutrino energy, Enu, and squared four-momentum transfer, Q^2.In each file there will be the following histograms:— TH2D/TH1D xsec: unfolded measured cross section— TH2D xsec_cov: cross section covariance matrix— TH2D stat_cov: statistical covariance matrixIncludes text files, xsec_{dThdE/Enu/dQ2}.txt show the corresponding histograms in plain text format.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Time-Resolved PIV Measurements of Flow Field at the Exit of a Diffuser Mounted on a Rotating Detonation Combustor

Time-resolved particle image velocimetry at 30 kHz is applied to the exhaust flow field of a RDC system configured with a diffuser geometry and a converging-diverging (CD) nozzle. The RDC is operated with methane fuel and oxygen-enriched air, motivated by power generation applications. The measured flow-field is discretized into axial and non-axial velocity components. Results are shown to characterize the flow-field across a cord length at the exit plane. Instantaneous contours of the two velocity components, and 1D histograms of velocity components, and 2D histograms of total velocity and tilt angle are shown at multiple locations in the flow. Repeatability of the data is evaluated by comparing tests conducted at similar flow rates. Results are presented for a baseline test case, and test cases showing the effect of reactant higher flow rate and CD nozzle geometry. Finally, the results are compared to a previous RDC study without the diffuser to compare the effectiveness of the diffuser and CD nozzle designs in mitigating the flow periodicity at the combustor exit.

particle image velocimetry, pressure gain combusti↗

DOE OSTI2021

Universal Monte Carlo Event Generator

With the Jefferson Lab 12 GeV physics program underway and plans for the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC), the nuclear physics community is entering a new era of exploration of QCD phenomena involving extensive data taking and event-level processing. This brings with it the potential for unprecedented access to multidimensional particle momentum distributions (PMDs) that can be connected to various theoretical frameworks by unfolding the emergent quantum mechanical properties of QCD using the PMDs. In practice, the PMDs are rendered as discretized histograms (typically one- or two-dimensional projections), and detector effects must be taken into account to unfold the pure detector effect-free PMDs that can be connected with theory. One of the challenges in this new era is obtaining faithful reconstructions of the multidimensional PMDs that preserve all of the inherent particle correlations. In this LDRD project we developed a novel approach using machine learning (ML) that solves this challenge, by avoiding entirely the need to use histograms as the main numerical technique to obtain the detector effect-free PMDs. The new approach is, moreover, scalable to higher dimensional PMDs. The central idea involves training neural networks (NNs) to generate synthetic event-level data (momenta 4-vectors of final state particles) to preserve all correlations among the particles. This is achieved by converting the trial synthetic vertex-level events to detector-level events using detector simulators. The NNs are then tuned using a specialized distance metric between the synthetic detector events and the real detector events.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Kernel Density Estimators for SAMPLER Analyses [Slides]

This presentation discusses Sampler, specifically in terms of uncertainty quantification and states that for many simulation tasks nominal input parameters have complicated influence on the uncertainty in the final result. Sampler provides a convenient means to perform stochastic uncertainty quantification, brute force sampling parameter space and tallying changes in outputs, and it can be coupled with any SCALE modules. Perturbed responses can be collected and analyzed with standard statistical measures; however, two problems have been identified. The first problem is that for Monte Carlo simulations the individual response uncertainties are ignored, and the second problem is that features of distributions are easily hidden in histograms. They found that the solution is to add Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) analysis to the Sampler output. In conclusion, Sampler is a unique tool for stochastic uncertainty propagation, and it can be coupled with any module in SCALE. Current functionality is limited to histograms, and it may not adequately account for sample uncertainties and/or not adequately display underlying distribution features. Work is in progress to implement KDE in the Sampler module and no additional flagging is needed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

BatAnalysis - A Comprehensive Python Pipeline for Swift BAT Survey Analysis

The Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) is a coded-aperture gamma-ray instrument with a large field of view that primarily operates in survey mode when it is not triggering on transient events. The survey data consist of 80- channel detector plane histograms that accumulate photon counts over periods of at least 5 minutes. These histograms are processed on the ground and are used to produce the survey data set between 14 and 195 keV. Survey data comprise >90% of all BAT data by volume and allow for the tracking of long-term light curves and spectral properties of cataloged and uncataloged hard X-ray sources. Until now, the survey data set has not been used to its full potential due to the complexity associated with its analysis and the lack of easily usable pipelines. Here, we introduce the BatAnalysis Python package, a wrapper for HEASoftpy, which provides a modern, opensource pipeline to process and analyze BAT survey data. BatAnalysis allows members of the community to use BAT survey data in more advanced analyses of astrophysical sources, including pulsars, pulsar wind nebula, active galactic nuclei, and other known/unknown transient events that may be detected in the hard X-ray band. We outline the steps taken by the Python code and exemplify its usefulness and accuracy by analyzing survey data of the Crab Nebula, NGC 2992, and a previously uncataloged MAXI transient. The BatAnalysis package allows for ~18 yr of BAT survey data to be used in a systematic way to study a large variety of astrophysical sources.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

BatAnalysis - A Comprehensive Python Pipeline for Swift BAT Survey Analysis

The Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) is a coded-aperture gamma-ray instrument with a large field of view that primarily operates in survey mode when it is not triggering on transient events. The survey data consist of 80-channel detector plane histograms that accumulate photon counts over periods of at least 5 minutes. These histograms are processed on the ground and are used to produce the survey data set between 14 and 195 keV. Survey data comprise >90% of all BAT data by volume and allow for the tracking of long-term light curves and spectral properties of cataloged and uncataloged hard X-ray sources. Until now, the survey data set has not been used to its full potential due to the complexity associated with its analysis and the lack of easily usable pipelines. Here, we introduce the BatAnalysis Python package, a wrapper for HEASoftpy, which provides a modern, open-source pipeline to process and analyze BAT survey data. BatAnalysis allows members of the community to use BAT survey data in more advanced analyses of astrophysical sources, including pulsars, pulsar wind nebula, active galactic nuclei, and other known/unknown transient events that may be detected in the hard X-ray band. We outline the steps taken by the Python code and exemplify its usefulness and accuracy by analyzing survey data of the Crab Nebula, NGC 2992, and a previously uncataloged MAXI transient. The BatAnalysis package allows for ~18 yr of BAT survey data to be used in a systematic way to study a large variety of astrophysical sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Earth System Model Aerosol–Cloud Diagnostics (ESMAC Diags) package, version 2: assessing aerosols, clouds, and aerosol–cloud interactions via field campaign and long-term observations

Abstract. Poor representations of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) in Earth system models (ESMs) have long been the largest uncertainties in predicting global climate change. Huge efforts have been made to improve the representation of these processes in ESMs, and the key to these efforts is the evaluation of ESM simulations with observations. Most well-established ESM diagnostics packages focus on the climatological features; however, they lack process-level understanding and representations of aerosols, clouds, and ACIs. In this study, we developed the Earth System Model Aerosol–Cloud Diagnostics (ESMAC Diags) package to facilitate the routine evaluation of aerosols, clouds, and ACIs simulated the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) from the US Department of Energy (DOE). This paper documents its version 2 functionality (ESMAC Diags v2), which has substantial updates compared with version 1 (Tang et al., 2022a). The simulated aerosol and cloud properties have been extensively compared with in situ and remote-sensing measurements from aircraft, ship, surface, and satellite platforms in ESMAC Diags v2. It currently includes six field campaigns and two permanent sites covering four geographical regions: the eastern North Atlantic, the central US, the northeastern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. These regions produce frequent liquid- or mixed-phase clouds, with extensive measurements available from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement user facility and other agencies. ESMAC Diags v2 generates various types of single-variable and multivariable diagnostics, including percentiles, histograms, joint histograms, and heatmaps, to evaluate the model representation of aerosols, clouds, and ACIs. Select examples highlighting the capabilities of ESMAC Diags are shown using E3SM version 2 (E3SMv2). In general, E3SMv2 can reasonably reproduce many observed aerosol and cloud properties, with biases in some variables such as aerosol particle and cloud droplet sizes and number concentrations. The coupling of aerosol and cloud number concentrations may be too strong in E3SMv2, possibly indicating a bias in processes that control aerosol activation. Furthermore, the liquid water path response to a perturbed cloud droplet number concentration behaves differently in E3SMv2 and observations, which warrants further study to improve the cloud microphysics parameterizations in E3SMv2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

NOvA 2024 official data release (26.61E20 neutrino + 12.5E20 antineutrino)

This data release corresponds to the Bayesian 2024 analysis of NOvA $\nu_e$ appearance and $\nu_{\mu}$ disappearance data, corresponding to analysis described in https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.04361. File `NOvA_2024_data_histograms.root` contains data histograms for all the NOvA data samples. Exposure: * neutrino-enhanced beam: 26.61E20 protons on target * antineutrino-enhanced beam: 12.5E20 protons on target External constraints: * ss2th12=0.851, dm21=7.53e-5 are fixed at 2019 PDG values, with negligible effect on NOvA predictions. * ss2th13 & dm32: * RCDB1D: 1D constraint from Daya Bay for ss2th13, 0.0851+/-0.0024 * RCDB2D: Correlated 2D constraint from Daya Bay on ss2th13 & dm32, available in their official 2023 data release: https://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.130.161802#supplemental An additional file containing the predictions (`NOvA_2024_prediction_with_systs_histograms.root`) for all channels’ signal and background components computed at the NOvA best-fit oscillation parameters and systematic pull terms. Numu samples include the no-oscillation case as well. Please note that any fits performed with these histograms are not expected to exactly reproduce the official NOvA results as parameterizations of the numerous systematic uncertainties considered in the official fits are not included in this release. The zip file also contains the 2D credible interval contours, with details in a README.md

Sztuc, Artur [University Coll. London] (ORCID:0000↗

DOE OSTI2018

Fluctuation statistics in the scrape-off layer of Alcator C-Mod

We study long time series of the ion saturation current and oating potential, sampled by Langmuir probes dwelled in the outboard mid-plane scrape-off layer and embedded in the lower divertor baffle of Alcator C-Mod. A series of ohmically heated L-mode plasma discharges is investigated with line-averaged plasma density ranging from ne/nG = 0.15 to 0.42, where nG is the Greenwald density. All ion saturation current time series that are sampled in the far scrape-off layer are characterized by large-amplitude burst events. Coefficients of skewness and excess kurtosis of the time series obey a quadratic relationship and their histograms coincide partially upon proper normalization. Histograms of the ion saturation current time series are found to agree well with a prediction of a stochastic model for the particle density fluctuations in scrape-off layer plasmas. The distribution of the waiting times between successive large-amplitude burst events and of the burst amplitudes are approximately described by exponential distributions. The average waiting time and burst amplitude are found to vary weakly with the line-averaged plasma density. Conditional averaging reveals that the radial blob velocity, estimated from floating potential measurements, increases with the normalized burst amplitude in the outboard mid- plane scrape-off layer. For low density discharges, the conditionally averaged waveform of the floating potential associated with large amplitude bursts at the divertor probes has a dipolar shape. In detached divertor conditions the average waveform is random, indicating electrical disconnection of blobs from the sheaths at the divertor targets.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Method and apparatus for detecting dilute concentrations of radioactive xenon in samples of xenon extracted from the atmosphere

A method and apparatus for measuring the concentrations of radioxenon isotopes in a gaseous sample wherein the sample cell is surrounded by N sub-detectors that are sensitive to both electrons and to photons from radioxenon decays. Signal processing electronics are provided that can detect events within the sub-detectors, measure their energies, determine whether they arise from electrons or photons, and detect coincidences between events within the same or different sub-detectors. The energies of detected two or three event coincidences are recorded as points in associated two or three-dimensional histograms. Counts within regions of interest in the histograms are then used to compute estimates of the radioxenon isotope concentrations. The method achieves lower backgrounds and lower minimum detectable concentrations by using smaller detector crystals, eliminating interference between double and triple coincidence decay branches, and segregating double coincidences within the same sub-detector from those occurring between different sub-detectors.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Time-Resolved PIV Measurements of Flow Field at Diffuser Exit Downstream of a Rotating Detonation Combustor

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating β eff from static, late-time Feynman neutron noise measurements

The effective delayed neutron fraction, β eff , is a kinematic parameter describing the contribution of delayed neutrons to the effective multiplication factor, $\kappa$ eff , and is of great interest to the nuclear criticality safety community and beyond. In fact, $\kappa$ eff presently must be inferred (as opposed to directly measured) since variables like β eff must be obtained from simulation, reference tables, or a dynamic or pulsed measurement where the assembly of fissile material is perturbed and not in steady state. Several recent works have proposed neutron noise techniques to estimate β eff from static measurements (such as benchmark experiments). This work experimentally investigates an approach based on looking at late-time (up to thousands of seconds) correlated neutrons in Feynman histograms. This work utilizes measurements of weapons grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium to construct late-time Feynman histograms and investigate a proposed methodology of estimating β eff from a fit of the distribution. Data is shown from both He-3 detectors and an organic scintillator array. This work is preliminary in nature, demonstrating some experimental feasibility and proposing improvements for future investigations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Online and Offline Data Quality Monitoring for the Mu2e Calorimeter

This thesis presents the design, implementation, and validation of a calorimeter Data Quality Monitoring (DQM) toolchain for the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab. Mu2e searches for charged lepton flavor violation via coherent muon-to-electron conversion in the field of an aluminum nucleus, $\mu^- Al \rightarrow e^-Al$, a process whose observation would constitute clear evidence of physics beyond the Standard Model. Achieving target sensitivity requires stringent control of detector performance and data integrity during acquisition, as subtle issues in readout configuration, data formatting, or electronics behavior can compromise reconstruction and bias downstream analyzes. To address these challenges, this work develops a multi-layer DQM approach spanning both raw data validation and reconstructed digi-level diagnostics. At the low level, a fragment analysis component performs word- and bit-field decoding of calorimeter readout blocks, enabling sanity checks of the expected structure and producing detailed error and integrity statistics useful for commissioning and troubleshooting. At the digi level, the CaloDigiDQM analyzer is implemented within the art framework and transforms each CaloDigiCollection into a structured hierarchy of ROOT histograms designed for fast drill-down diagnostics. The module generates coherent monitoring views at global, disk, board, and channel granularity, including occupancy, waveform-derived features (baseline, RMS, peak amplitude and position), and left-right sensor consistency metrics. Detector-aware channel-to-electronics mapping is performed through the conditions system (CaloDAQMap), ensuring that diagnostics remain aligned with hardware identifiers used in operations. For end-to-end testing without reliance on live DAQ data, a synthetic CaloDigi producer is developed to generate realistic waveforms with controlled noise and pulse shapes. The resulting system supports both offline ROOT-file production and online operation, including optional histogram streaming through otsdaq via ots::HistoSender. This toolchain provides a practical and scalable foundation for calorimeter commissioning and stable data collection, enabling early detection of anomalies and reducing operational risk for Mu2e.

Vakulenko, Mark [Drew U.] (ORCID:0009000276197818)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Computing Potential of the Mean Force Profiles for Ion Permeation Through Channelrhodopsin Chimera, C1C2

Umbrella sampling, coupled with a weighted histogram analysis method (US-WHAM), can be used to construct potentials of mean force (PMFs) for studying the complex ion permeation pathways of membrane transport proteins. Despite the widespread use of US-WHAM, obtaining a physically meaningful PMF can be challenging. Here, we provide a protocol to resolve that issue. Then, we apply that protocol to compute a meaningful PMF for sodium ion permeation through channelrhodopsin chimera, C1C2, for illustration.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

A unified approach to evaluating precipitation frequency estimates with uncertainty quantification: Application to Florida and California watersheds

Although a variety of climate datasets are now available, including observational and model products, there remains a pressing need for the development of a unified, automated and application-focused approach for evaluating and comparing climate extremes within and across these datasets. Precipitation frequency (PF) es- timates for extreme precipitation events are useful decision-relevant quantities among water managers. Our objective and quantitative framework for computing PF estimates of any duration uses known techniques in a novel combination. Our framework consists of three steps: (1) use of a regionalization-based statistical method for precipitation frequency estimation at observed sites; this involves hierarchical clustering (here we used Ward’s method) for delineating homogeneous regions, and regional frequency analysis using L-moments; (2) use of kriging for spatial mapping because of its advantages over other conventional interpolation methods; (3) use of z-scores accounts for estimation uncertainties when comparing PF estimates between datasets. The 24-h PF estimates in the Kissimmee-Southern Florida watershed (flat topography) and the Sacramento-San Joaquin watershed (complex topography) demonstrate the applicability of this approach in regions of any geographical complexity. Our results are shown to be reasonably calibrated using the probability integral transform (PIT) histogram of the best fitted distribution. Our results are compared with that of the NOAA Atlas 14 reports and show that for most of the stations the two estimates are statistically indistinguishable; and, the confidence intervals of our estimates are narrower than those of the NOAA estimates. Our approach is applicable to a variety of datasets and provides a baseline for assessing performance of climate models in historical simulations – a necessary first step towards analyzing future projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗