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The Muscles Treasury Survey. I. Motivation and Overview

Ground- and space-based planet searches employing radial velocity techniques and transit photometry have detected thousands of planet-hosting stars in the Milky Way. With so many planets discovered, the next step toward identifying potentially habitable planets is atmospheric characterization. While the Sun-Earth system provides a good framework for understanding the atmospheric chemistry of Earth-like planets around solar-type stars, the observational and theoretical constraints on the atmospheres of rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZs) around low-mass stars (K and M dwarfs) are relatively few. The chemistry of these atmospheres is controlled by the shape and absolute flux of the stellar spectral energy distribution (SED), however, flux distributions of relatively inactive low-mass stars are poorly understood at present. To address this issue, we have executed a panchromatic (X-ray to mid-IR) study of the SEDs of 11 nearby planet-hosting stars, the Measurements of the Ultraviolet Spectral Characteristics of Low-mass Exoplanetary Systems (MUSCLES) Treasury Survey. The MUSCLES program consists visible observations from Hubble and ground-based observatories. Infrared and astrophysically inaccessible wavelengths (EUV and Lyalpha) are reconstructed using stellar model spectra to fill in gaps in the observational data. In this overview and the companion papers describing the MUSCLES survey, we show that energetic radiation (X-ray and ultraviolet) is present from magnetically active stellar atmospheres at all times for stars as late as M6. The emission line luminosities of C IV and Mg II are strongly correlated with band-integrated luminosities and we present empirical relations that can be used to estimate broadband FUV and XUV (is equivalent to X-ray + EUV) fluxes from individual stellar emission line measurements. We find that while the slope of the SED, FUV/NUV, increases by approximately two orders of magnitude form early K to late M dwarfs (approximately equal 0.01-1), the absolute FUV and XUV flux levels at their corresponding HZ distances are constant to within factors of a few, spanning the range 10-70 erg per (sq cm) s in the HZ. Despite the lack of strong stellar activity indicators in their optical spectra, several of the M dwarfs in our sample show spectacular UV flare emission in their light curves. We present an example with flare/quiescent ultraviolet flux ratios of the order of 100:1 where the transition region energy output during the flare is comparable to the total quiescent luminosity of the star E(sub flare)(UV) approximately 0.3 L(sub *) delta (t) (delta t = 1 s). Finally, we interpret enhanced L(line)/L(sub Bol) ratios for C IV and N V as tentative observational evidence for the interaction of planets with large planetary mass-to-orbital distance ratios (M(sub plan)/A(sub plan)) with the transition regions of their host stars.

Infrared and astrophysically inaccessible waveleng↗

Continuous Habitable Zones: Pairing a GCM and Bayesian Framework to Predict Habitable Zone Evolution

In the near-future, new space telescopes like JWST, LUVOIR, and HabEx will begin attempting to explore the properties of atmospheres of potentially habitable planets. This will require a significant amount of time and resources for even a single planet, which makes it essential to prioritize observations by those most-likely to have detectable life. Here we present a statistical method to estimate the probabilities that specific exoplanets have been continuously in the habitable zone of their host stars for more than 2 billion years, the approximate time it took life on Earth to significantly increase the oxygen content of the atmosphere. We introduce the use of statistics of an ensemble of 3D planetary general circulation models to estimate these probabilities, replacing prior 1D model estimates.

habitable planets↗

Pairing a GCM and Bayesian Framework to Predict Habitable Zone Evolution

In the near-future, new space telescopes like JWST, LUVOIR, and HabEx will begin attempting to explore the properties of atmospheres of potentially habitable planets. This will require a significant amount of time and resources for even a single planet, which makes it essential to prioritize observations by those most-likely to have detectable life. Here we present a statistical method to estimate the probabilities that specific exoplanets have been continuously in the habitable zone of their host stars for more than 2 billion years, the approximate time it took life on Earth to significantly increase the oxygen content of the atmosphere. We introduce the use of statistics of an ensemble of 3D planetary general circulation models to estimate these probabilities, replacing prior 1D model estimates.

habitable planets↗

Climates of Warm Earth-like Planets. III. Fractional Habitability from a Water Cycle Perspective

The habitable fraction of a planet's surface is important for the detectability of surface biosignatures. The extent and distribution of habitable areas are influenced by external parameters that control the planet's climate, atmospheric circulation, and hydrological cycle. We explore these issues using the ROCKE-3D general circulation model, focusing on terrestrial water fluxes and thus the potential for the existence of complex life on land. Habitability is examined as a function of insolation and planet rotation for an Earth-like world with zero obliquity and eccentricity orbiting the Sun. We assess fractional habitability using an aridity index that measures the net supply of water to the land. Earth-like planets become "superhabitable" (a larger habitable surface area than Earth) as insolation and day-length increase because their climates become more equable, reminiscent of past warm periods on Earth when complex life was abundant and widespread. The most slowly rotating, most highly irradiated planets, though, occupy a hydrological regime unlike any on Earth, with extremely warm, humid conditions at high latitudes but little rain and subsurface water storage. Clouds increasingly obscure the surface as insolation increases, but visibility improves for modest increases in rotation period. Thus, moderately slowly rotating rocky planets with insolation near or somewhat greater than modern Earth's appear to be promising targets for surface characterization by a future direct imaging mission.

Exoplanet atmospheric variability↗

Dependence of macrophysical phenomena on the values of the fundamental constants

Using simple arguments, it is considered how the fundamental constants determine the scales of various macroscopic phenomena, including the properties of solid matter; the distinction between rocks, asteroids, planets, and stars; the conditions on habitable planets; the length of the day and year; and the size and athletic ability of human beings. Most of the results, where testable, are accurate to within a couple of orders of magnitude.

Press, W. H.↗

Climates of Warm Earth-Like Planets III: Fractional Habitability from a Water Cycle Perspective

The habitable fraction of a planet's surface is important for the detectability of surface biosignatures. The extent and distribution of habitable areas are influenced by external parameters that control the planet's climate, atmospheric circulation, and hydrological cycle. We explore these issues using the ROCKE-3D general circulation model, focusing on terrestrial water fluxes and thus the potential for the existence of complex life on land. Habitability is examined as a function of insolation and planet rotation for an Earth-like world with zero obliquity and eccentricity orbiting the Sun. We assess fractional habitability using an aridity index that measures the net supply of water to the land. Earth-like planets become "superhabitable" (a larger habitable surface area than Earth) as insolation and day-length increase because their climates become more equable, reminiscent of past warm periods on Earth when complex life was abundant and widespread. The most slowly rotating, most highly irradiated planets, though, occupy a hydrological regime unlike any on Earth, with extremely warm, humid conditions at high latitudes but little rain and subsurface water storage. Clouds increasingly obscure the surface as insolation increases, but visibility improves for modest increases in rotation period. Thus, moderately slowly rotating rocky planets with insolation near or somewhat greater than modern Earth's appear to be promising targets for surface characterization by a future direct imaging mission.

Del Genio, Anthony D.↗

Sensitivity of the terrestrial planet finder

A key long-term goal of NASA's Origins program is the detection and characterization of habitable planets orbiting stars within the solar neighborhood. A cold, space-borne interferometer operating in the mid-infrared with a approx. 75 m baseline can null the light of a parent star and detect the million-times fainter radiation from an Earth-like planet located in the "habitable zone" around stars as far as 15 pc away. Such an interferometer, designated the Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF) by NASA, could even detect atmospheric signatures of species such as CO2, O3, and H2O indicative of either the possibility or presence of primitive life. This talk highlights some of the sensitivity issues affecting the detectability of terrestrial planets. Sensitivity calculations show that a system consisting of 2 m apertures operating at 5 AU or 4 m apertures operating at 1 AU can detect terrestrial planets in reasonable integration times for levels of exo-zodiacal emission up to 10 times that seen in our solar system (hereafter denoted as 10xSS). Additionally, simulations show that confusion noise from structures in the exo-zodiacal cloud should not impede planet detection until the exo-zodiacal emission reaches the 10xSS level.

Beichman, Charles↗

Extrasolar Planet Inferometric Survey (EPIcS)

The discovery of the nature of the solar system was a crowning achievement of Renaissance science. The quest to evaluate the properties of extrasolar planetary systems is central to both the intellectual understanding of our origins and the cultural understanding of humanity's place in the Universe; thus it is appropriate that the goals and objectives of NASA's breakthrough Origins program emphasize the study of planetary systems, with a focus on the search for habitable planets. We propose an ambitious research program that will use SIM - the first major mission of the Origins program - to explore planetary systems in our Galactic neighborhood. Our program is a novel two-tiered SIM survey of nearby stars that exploits the capabilities of SIM to achieve two scientific objectives: (i) to identify Earth-like planets in habitable regions around nearby Sunlike stars: and (ii) to explore the nature and evolution of planetary systems in their full variety. The first of these objectives was recently recommended by the Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee (the McKee-Taylor Committee) as a prerequisite for the development of the Terrestrial Planet Finder mission later in the decade. Our program combines this two-part survey with preparatory and contemporaneous research designed to maximize the scientific return from the limited and thus precious observing resources of SIM.

Shao, Michael↗

Magnitude-squared Coherence: A Powerful Tool for Disentangling Doppler Planet Discoveries from Stellar Activity

Abstract If Doppler searches for Earth-mass, habitable planets are to succeed, observers must be able to identify and model out stellar activity signals. Here we demonstrate how to diagnose activity signals by calculating the magnitude-squared coherence C ˆ xy 2 ( f ) between an activity-indicator time series x t and the radial-velocity (RV) time series y t . Since planets only cause modulation in RV, not in activity indicators, a high value of C ˆ xy 2 ( f ) indicates that the signal at frequency f has a stellar origin. We use Welch’s method to measure coherence between activity indicators and RVs in archival observations of GJ 581, α Cen B, and GJ 3998. High RV-H α coherence at the frequency of GJ 3998 b and high RV-S index coherence at the frequency of GJ 3998c, indicate that the planets may actually be stellar signals. We also replicate previous results showing that GJ 581 d and g are rotation harmonics and demonstrate that α Cen B has activity signals that are not associated with rotation. Welch’s power spectrum estimates have cleaner spectral windows than Lomb–Scargle periodograms, improving our ability to estimate rotation periods. We find that the rotation period of GJ 581 is 132 days, with no evidence of differential rotation. Welch’s method may yield unacceptably large bias for data sets with N < 75 observations and works best on data sets with N > 100. Tapering the time-domain data can reduce the bias of the Welch’s power spectrum estimator, but observers should not apply tapers to data sets with extremely uneven observing cadence. A software package for calculating magnitude-squared coherence and Welch’s power spectrum estimates is available on github.

Dodson-Robinson, Sarah E. (ORCID:0000000287964974)↗

The Impact of Stripped Cores on the Frequency of Earth-size Planets in the Habitable Zone

The frequency of Earth-size planets in the habitable zone(HZ)of Sun-like stars, hereafter, is a key parameter to evaluate the yield of nearby Earth analogs that can be detected and characterized by future missions. Yet, this value is poorly constrained as there are no reliable exoplanet candidates in the HZ of Sun-like stars in the Kepler field. Here, we show that extrapolations relying on the population of small(<1.8R), short-period(<25 days)planets bias to large values. As the radius distribution at short orbital periods is strongly affected by atmospheric loss, we reevaluate using exoplanets at larger separations. We find that drops considerably, to values of only5% - 10%. Observations of young(<100 Myr)clusters can probe short-period sub-Neptunes that still retain most of their envelope mass. As such, they can be used to quantify the contamination of sub-Neptunes to the population of Kepler short-period small planets and aid in more reliable estimates of.

Pascucci, Ilaria↗

Planet Formation and the Characteristics of Extrasolar Planets

An overview of current theories of planetary growth, emphasizing the formation of extrasolar planets, is presented. Models of planet formation are based upon observations of the Solar System, extrasolar planets, and young stars and their environments. Terrestrial planets are believed to grow via pairwise accretion until the spacing of planetary orbits becomes large enough that the configuration is stable for the age of the system. Giant planets begin their growth like terrestrial planets, but if they become massive enough before the protoplanetary disk dissipates, then they are able to accumulate substantial amounts of gas. These models predict that rocky planets should form in orbit about most single stars. It is uncertain whether or not gas giant planet formation is common, because most protoplanetary disks may dissipate before solid planetary cores can grow large enough to gravitationally trap substantial quantities of gas. A potential hazard to planetary systems is radial decay of planetary orbits resulting from interactions with material within the disk. Planets more massive than Earth have the potential to decay the fastest, and may be able to sweep up smaller planets in their path. The implications of the giant planets found in recent radial velocity searches for the abundances of habitable planets are discussed.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗

On the Diversity of Planetary Systems

Models of planet formation and of the orbital stability of planetary systems are described and used to discuss possible characteristics of undiscovered planetary systems. Modern theories of star and planet formation, which are based upon observations of the Solar System and of young stars and their environments, predict that rocky planets should form in orbit about most single stars. It is uncertain whether or not gas giant planet formation is common, because most protoplanetary disks may dissipate before solid planetary cores can grow large enough to gravitationally trap substantial quantities of gas. A potential hazard to planetary systems is radial decay of planetary orbits resulting from interactions with material within the disk. Planets more massive than Earth have the potential to decay the fastest, and may be able to sweep up smaller planets in their path. The implications of the giant planets found in recent radial velocity searches for the abundances of habitable planets are discussed.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗

Formation and Detection of Planetary Systems

Modern theories of star and planet formation and of the orbital stability of planetary systems are described and used to discuss possible characteristics of undiscovered planetary systems. The most detailed models of planetary growth are based upon observations of planets and smaller bodies within our own Solar System and of young stars and their environments. Terrestrial planets are believed to grow via pairwise accretion until the spacing of planetary orbits becomes large enough that the configuration is stable for the age of the system. Giant planets begin their growth as do terrestrial planets, but they become massive enough that they are able to accumulate substantial amounts of gas before the protoplanetary disk dissipates. These models predict that rocky planets should form in orbit about most single stars. It is uncertain whether or not gas giant planet formation is common, because most protoplanetary disks may dissipate before solid planetary cores can grow large enough to gravitationally trap substantial quantities of gas. A potential hazard to planetary systems is radial decay of planetary orbits resulting from interactions with material within the disk. Planets more massive than Earth have the potential to decay the fastest, and may be able to sweep up smaller planets in their path. The implications of the giant planets found in recent radial velocity searches for the abundances of habitable planets are discussed, and the methods that are being used and planned for detecting and characterizing extrasolar planets are reviewed.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗

Planet Formation

Modern theories of star and planet formation and of the orbital stability of planetary systems are described and used to discuss possible characteristics of undiscovered planetary systems. The most detailed models of planetary growth are based upon observations of planets and smaller bodies within our own Solar System and of young stars and their environments. Terrestrial planets are believed to grow via pairwise accretion until the spacing of planetary orbits becomes large enough that the configuration is stable for the age of the system. Giant planets begin their growth as do terrestrial planets, but they become massive enough that they are able to accumulate substantial amounts of gas before the protoplanetary disk dissipates. These models predict that rocky planets should form in orbit about most single stars. It is uncertain whether or not gas giant planet formation is common, because most protoplanetary disks may dissipate before solid planetary cores can grow large enough to gravitationally trap substantial quantities of gas. A potential hazard to planetary systems is radial decay of planetary orbits resulting from interactions with material within the disk. Planets more massive than Earth have the potential to decay the fastest, and may be able to sweep up smaller planets in their path. The implications of the giant planets found in recent radial velocity searches for the abundances of habitable planets are discussed, and the methods that are being used and planned for detecting and characterizing extrasolar planets are reviewed.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗

The Birth of Planetary Systems

Models of planet formation and of the orbital stability of planetary systems are described and used to discuss possible characteristics of undiscovered planetary systems. Modern theories of star and planet formation, which are based upon observations of the Solar System and of young stars and their environments, predict that rocky planets should form in orbit about most single stars. It is uncertain whether or not gas giant planet formation is common, because most protoplanetary disks may dissipate before solid planetary cores can grow large- enough to gravitationally trap substantial quantities of gas. Another potential hazard to planetary systems is radial decay of planetary orbits resulting from interactions with material within the disk. Planets more massive than Earth have the potential to decay the fastest, and may be able to sweep up smaller planets in their path. The implications of the giant planets found in recent radial velocity searches for the abundances of habitable planets are discussed.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗

Finding Terrestrial Planets Using External Occulters

In order to identify a detected exoplanet as an Earth-like (habitable) planet, we must obtain its spectrum to verify that its atmosphere shows evidence of water vapor. We argue that a regular, optical telescope combined with a large occulter to block light from the star offers the most promising, cost-effective way to detect and characterize exoplanets.

Heap, Sara↗

The Search for Habitable Worlds. 1. The Viability of a Starshade Mission

As part of NASA's mission to explore habitable planets orbiting nearby stars, this article explores the detection and characterization capabilities of a 4 m space telescope plus 50 m starshade located at the Earth-Sun L2 point, known as the New Worlds Observer (NWO). Our calculations include the true spectral types and distribution of stars on the sky, an iterative target selection protocol designed to maximize efficiency based on prior detections, and realistic mission constraints. We conduct simulated observing runs for a wide range in exozodiacal background levels (epsilon = 1-100 times the local zodi brightness) and overall prevalence of Earth-like terrestrial planets (eta(sub solar halo))0.1-1). We find that even without any return visits, the NWO baseline architecture (IWA = 65 mas, limiting FPB = 4 x 10(exp -11) can achieve a 95% probability of detecting and spectrally characterizing at least one habitable Earth-like planet and an expectation value of approximately 3 planets found, within the mission lifetime and delta V budgets, even in the worst-case scenario (eta(sub solar halo) = 0.1 and = epsilon = 100 zodis for every target). This achievement requires about 1 yr of integration time spread over the 5 yr mission, leaving the remainder of the telescope time for UV-NIR general astrophysics. Cost and technical feasibility considerations point to a "sweet spot" in starshade design near a 50 m starshade effective diameter. with 12 or 16 petals, at a distance of 70,000-100,000 km from the telescope.

Turnbull, Margaret C.↗

Habitable Moist Atmospheres on Terrestrial Planets near the Inner Edge of the Habitable Zone Around M Dwarfs

Terrestrial planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of low-mass stars and cool dwarfs have received significant scrutiny recently. Transit spectroscopy of such planets with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) represents our best shot at obtaining the spectrum of a habitable planet within the next decade. As these planets are likely tidally locked, improved 3D numerical simulations of such planetary atmospheres are needed to guide target selection. Here we use a 3D climate system model, updated with new water-vapor absorption coefficients derived from the HITRAN 2012 database, to study ocean-covered planets at the inner edge of the HZ around late M to mid- K stars (2600 K less than or equal to T(sub eff) less than or equal to 4500 K). Our results indicate that these updated water-vapor coefficients result in significant warming compared to previous studies, so the inner HZ around M dwarfs is not as close as suggested by earlier work. Assuming synchronously rotating Earth-sized and Earth-mass planets with background 1 bar N2 atmospheres, we find that planets at the inner HZ of stars with T(sub eff) greater than 3000 K undergo the classical ''moist greenhouse'' (H2O mixing ratio greater than 10(exp -3) in the stratosphere) at significantly lower surface temperature (approx. 280 K) in our 3D model compared with 1D climate models (approx. 340 K). This implies that some planets around low-mass stars can simultaneously undergo water loss and remain habitable. However, for stars with T(sub eff) less than or equal to 3000 K, planets at the inner HZ may directly transition to a runaway state, while bypassing the moist greenhouse water loss entirely. We analyze transmission spectra of planets in a moist greenhouse regime and find that there are several prominent H2O features, including a broad feature between 5 and 8 micron, within JWST MIRI instrument range. Thus, relying only on standard Earth-analog spectra with 24 hr rotation period around M dwarfs for habitability studies will miss the strong H2O features that one would expect to see on synchronously rotating planets around M dwarf stars, with JWST.

Kopparapu, Ravi kumar↗