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NASA NTRS2004

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1992

An efficient HZETRN (a galactic cosmic ray transport code)

An accurate and efficient engineering code for analyzing the shielding requirements against the high-energy galactic heavy ions is needed. The HZETRN is a deterministic code developed at Langley Research Center that is constantly under improvement both in physics and numerical computation and is targeted for such use. One problem area connected with the space-marching technique used in this code is the propagation of the local truncation error. By improving the numerical algorithms for interpolation, integration, and grid distribution formula, the efficiency of the code is increased by a factor of eight as the number of energy grid points is reduced. The numerical accuracy of better than 2 percent for a shield thickness of 150 g/cm(exp 2) is found when a 45 point energy grid is used. The propagating step size, which is related to the perturbation theory, is also reevaluated.

Shinn, Judy L.↗

NASA NTRS1983

The composition of heavy ions in solar energetic particle events

Recent advances in determining the elemental, charge state, and isotopic composition of or approximate to 1 to or approximate to 20 MeV per nucleon ions in solar energetic particle (SEP) events and outline our current understanding of the nature of solar and interplanetary processes which may explain the observations. Average values of relative abundances measured in a large number of SEP events were found to be roughly energy independent in the approx. 1 to approx. 20 MeV per nucleon range, and showed a systematic deviation from photospheric abundances which seems to be organized in terms of the first ionization potential of the ion. Direct measurements of the charge states of SEPs revealed the surprisingly common presence of energetic He(+) along with heavy ion with typically coronal ionization states. High resolution measurements of isotopic abundance ratios in a small number of SEP events showed these to be consistent with the universal composition except for the puzzling overabundance of the SEP(22)Ne/(20)Ne relative to this isotopes ratio in the solar wind. The broad spectrum of observed elemental abundance variations, which in their extreme result in composition anomalies characteristic of (3)He rich, heavy ion rich and carbon poor SEP events, along with direct measurements of the ionization states of SEPs provided essential information on the physical characteristics of, and conditions in the source regions, as well as important constraints to possible models for SEP production.

Fan, C. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1984

The composition of heavy ions in solar energetic particle events

Fan, C. Y.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Radiation Risk Projections for Space Travel

Space travelers are exposed to solar and galactic cosmic rays comprised of protons and heavy ions moving with velocities close to the speed of light. Cosmic ray heavy ions are known to produce more severe types of biomolecular damage in comparison to terrestrial forms of radiation, however the relationship between such damage and disease has not been fully elucidated. On Earth, we are protected from cosmic rays by atmospheric and magnetic shielding, and only the remnants of cosmic rays in the form of ground level muons and other secondary radiations are present. Because human epidemiology data is lacking for cosmic rays, risk projection must rely on theoretical understanding and data from experimental models exposed to space radiation using charged particle accelerators to simulate space radiation. Although the risks of cancer and other late effects from cosmic rays are currently believed to present a severe challenge to space travel, this challenge is centered on our lack of confidence in risk projections methodologies. We review biophysics and radiobiology data on the effects of the cosmic ray heavy ions, and the current methods used to project radiation risks . Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Risk projections for space travel are described using Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error di stributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor that contributes to the projection model in order to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. This analysis is applied to space mi ssion scenarios including lunar colony, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Results suggest that the number of days in space where cancer mortality risks can be assured at a 95% confidence level to be below the maximum acceptable risk for radi ation workers on Earth or the International Space Station is only on the order of 100-200 days. Approaches to reduce these unceI1ainties and mitigate risks are described.

Cucinotta, Francis↗

NASA NTRS1992

Ground-based measurements of galactic cosmic ray fragmentation in shielding

The mean free path for nuclear interactions of galactic cosmic-rays is comparable to shielding and tissue thicknesses present in human interplanetary exploration, resulting in a significant fraction of nuclear reaction products at depth. In order to characterize the radiation field, the energy spectrum, the angular distribution, and the multiplicity of each type of secondary particles must also be known as a function of depth. Reactions can take place anywhere in a thick absorber; therefore, it is necessary to know these quantities as a function of particle energy for all particles produced. HZE transport methods are used to predict the radiation field; they are dependent on models of the interaction of man-made systems with the space environment to an even greater extent than methods used for other types of radiation. Hence, there is a major need to validate these transport codes by comparison with experimental data. The most cost-effective method of validation is a comparison with ground-based experimental measurements. A research program to provide such validation measurements using neon, iron and other accelerated heavy ion beams will be discussed and illustrated using results from ongoing experiments and their comparison with current transport codes. The extent to which physical measurements yield radiobiological predictions will be discussed.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS2002

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Selective nonresonant acceleration of He-3(2+) and heavy ions by H(+) cyclotron waves

The model advanced by Fisk (1978) to explain the anomalous enhancements in the abundance of some ionic species in energetic solar particle flux measurements at about 1 AU is revised by including the proper nonlinear physics of particle energization by electrostatic ion cyclotron (EIC) waves. The revised model contains two basic concepts by Fisk: the energization by EIC waves and the need for a second stage acceleration. There is no need for exciting He-4(2+) cyclotron waves, since the dominant process is nonresonant and can be accomplished by hydrogen cyclotron waves. The A/Q selectivity in the flux available for energization in the second stage process enters through the nonlinear saturation level, which in conventional theories depends on the current that drives the instabilities.

Varvoglis, H.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Monte Carlo transport model comparison with 1A GeV accelerated iron experiment: heavy-ion shielding evaluation of NASA space flight-crew foodstuff

Deep-space manned flight as a reality depends on a viable solution to the radiation problem. Both acute and chronic radiation health threats are known to exist, with solar particle events as an example of the former and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) of the latter. In this experiment Iron ions of 1A GeV are used to simulate GCR and to determine the secondary radiation field created as the GCR-like particles interact with a thick target. A NASA prepared food pantry locker was subjected to the iron beam and the secondary fluence recorded. A modified version of the Monte Carlo heavy ion transport code developed by Zeitlin at LBNL is compared with experimental fluence. The foodstuff is modeled as mixed nuts as defined by the 71st edition of the Chemical Rubber Company (CRC) Handbook of Physics and Chemistry. The results indicate a good agreement between the experimental data and the model. The agreement between model and experiment is determined using a linear fit to ordered pairs of data. The intercept is forced to zero. The slope fit is 0.825 and the R2 value is 0.429 over the resolved fluence region. The removal of an outlier, Z=14, gives values of 0.888 and 0.705 for slope and R2 respectively. c2002 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS1984

Plasma diagnostics for the outer solar corona - UV and XUV Fe XII lines

The formation of the UV and XUV spectral lines of Fe XII in the outer corona was investigated. The results indicate that these lines can be an important tool for probing the physical conditions in the coronal regions where the solar wind is generated. The Fe XII lines can be particularly useful for determining outflow velocities of heavy ions in the solar wind and for providing critical empirical constraints on energy transport and dissipation mechanisms in the solar wind acceleration region. Application of the theoretical calculations to existing UV, EUV, and XUV observations of the low corona provide evidence that: (1) the inclusion of the effects of resonances in the collision strengths for the low-lying levels of Fe XII is important, (2) that the contributions of resonances for these levels are even larger than the estimates given in the present paper, and (3) that the collision strengths used here yield populations for these levels which are accurate to a factor of 2. These results have implications concerning the accuracy of abundances and densities derived from observations of the Fe XII lines in the low corona.

Withbroe, G. L.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Fundamental processes in the expansion, energization, and coupling of single- and multi-Ion plasmas in space: Laboratory simulation experiments

We have conducted a laboratory investigation into the physics of plasma expansions and their associated energization processes. We studied single- and multi-ion plasma processes in self-expansions, and included light and heavy ions and heavy/light mixtures to encompass the phenomenological regimes of the solar and polar winds and the AMPTE and CRRES chemical release programs. The laboratory experiments provided spatially-distributed time-dependent measurements of total plasma density, temperature, and density fluctuation power spectra with the data confirming the long-theorized electron energization process in an expanding cloud - a result that was impossible to determine in spaceborne experiments (as e.g., in the CRRES program). These results provided the missing link in previous laboratory and spaceborne programs. confirming important elements in our understanding of such solar-terrestrial processes as manifested in expanding plasmas in the solar wind (e.g., CMES) and in ionospheric outflow in plasmaspheric fluctuate refilling after a storm. The energization signatures were seen in an entire series of runs that varied the ion species (Ar', Xe', Kr' and Ne'), and correlative studies included spectral analyses of electrostatic waves collocated with the energized electron distributions. In all cases wave energies were most intense during the times in which the suprathermal populations were present, with wave intensity increasing with the intensity of the suprathermal electron population. This is consistent with theoretical expectations wherein the energization process is directly attributable to wave particle interactions. No resonance conditions were observed, in an overall framework in which the general wave characteristics were broadband with power decreasing with increasing frequency.

Szuszczewicz, E. P.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Single Event Rates for Devices Sensitive to Particle Energy

Single event rates (SER) can include contributions from low-energy particles such that the linear energy transfer (LET) is not constant. Previous work found that the environmental description that is most relevant to the low-energy contribution to the rate is a "stopping rate per unit volume" even when the physical mechanisms for a single-event effect do not require an ion to stop in some device region. Stopping rate tables are presented for four heavy-ion environments that are commonly used to assess device suitability for space applications. A conservative rate estimate utilizing limited test data is derived, and the example of SEGR rate in a power MOSFET is presented.

conservative rate↗

NASA NTRS2003

Radiation dosimetry and biophysical models of space radiation effects

Estimating the biological risks from space radiation remains a difficult problem because of the many radiation types including protons, heavy ions, and secondary neutrons, and the absence of epidemiology data for these radiation types. Developing useful biophysical parameters or models that relate energy deposition by space particles to the probabilities of biological outcomes is a complex problem. Physical measurements of space radiation include the absorbed dose, dose equivalent, and linear energy transfer (LET) spectra. In contrast to conventional dosimetric methods, models of radiation track structure provide descriptions of energy deposition events in biomolecules, cells, or tissues, which can be used to develop biophysical models of radiation risks. In this paper, we address the biophysical description of heavy particle tracks in the context of the interpretation of both space radiation dosimetry and radiobiology data, which may provide insights into new approaches to these problems.

Review↗

NASA NTRS1992

Detection of artificially created negative ion clouds with incoherent scatter radar

The physical mechanisms by which negative ions change the shape of the incoherent scatter spectrum, and the way in which shape changes may be used to detect the presence of heavy positive and negative ions in an ambient ionosphere are investigated. In order to detect heavy negative ions, the temperature structure of the ionosphere is fixed to a prevent average measurement, and any changes in spectral shape during the experiment are interpreted as being caused by changes in composition, and not by changes in the temperature ratio Te/Ti. The spatial and temporal development of heavy negative ion plasma clouds created during four active chemical release experiments was observed. Concentrations of 10-40-percent SF6(-) were detected in SPINEX 1, SPINEX 2, and IMS data sets. An average uncertainty of +/-10-percent SF6(-) is present in all three experiments. Concentrations of 30-percent Br(-) were detected in the NICARE 1 release, with uncertainties of +/-4 percent.

Sultan, Peter J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Elemental Abundance Variations Observed in Solar Energetic Particle Events During Solar Cycle 23

We report on observations of the abundances of elements from Helium to Nickel in over 50 different solar energetic particle events using the Solar Isotope Spectrometer (SIS) on-board the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. It had originally been expected that the energy spectra of different elements would show spectral roll-overs at energies related to the Q/M ratio of each element. Due to the partial stripping of Fe and essentially complete stripping of O, it was expected that the Fe/O ratio would be observed to decrease with increasing energy. While many events show this pattern, others have Fe/O which is constant with energy, while for yet others Fe/O actually increases with energy. Events having constant Fe/O could simply have their spectral breaks outside of the observed energy range. However, events which show increasing Fe/O cannot be explained within the framework of spectral breaks. Possible explanations include injection of remnant heavy ions from earlier impulsive events, hybrid Events consisting of a combination of flare-accelerated and shock-accelerated particles from a single solar event, and some new physical process in shock acceleration. We will report on efforts to distinguish these possible explanations.

vonRosenvinge, T. T.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Space Radiation Cancer Risks

Space radiation presents major challenges to astronauts on the International Space Station and for future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Methods used to project risks on Earth need to be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting cancer risks from space radiation, and thus impact safety factors. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts: The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in the radiation cancer projection model. NASA s acceptable level of risk for ISS and their new lunar program have been set at the point-estimate of a 3-percent risk of exposure induced death (REID). Tissue-averaged organ dose-equivalents are combined with age at exposure and gender-dependent risk coefficients to project the cumulative occupational radiation risks incurred by astronauts. The 95% CL criteria in practice is a stronger criterion than ALARA, but not an absolute cut-off as is applied to a point projection of a 3% REID. We describe the most recent astronaut dose limits, and present a historical review of astronaut organ doses estimates from the Mercury through the current ISS program, and future projections for lunar and Mars missions. NASA s 95% CL criteria is linked to a vibrant ground based radiobiology program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and heavy ions. The near-term goal of research is new knowledge leading to the reduction of uncertainties in projection models. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. The current model for projecting space radiation cancer risk relies on the three assumptions of linearity, additivity, and scaling along with the use of population averages. We describe uncertainty estimates for this model, and new experimental data that sheds light on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. These methods make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including lunar station, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties and application of this approach to assess candidate mitigation approaches are described.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Self-Consistent Ring Current/Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves Modeling

The self-consistent treatment of the RC ion dynamics and EMIC waves, which are thought to exert important influences on the ion dynamical evolution, is an important missing element in our understanding of the storm-and recovery-time ring current evolution. For example, the EMlC waves cause the RC decay on a time scale of about one hour or less during the main phase of storms. The oblique EMIC waves damp due to Landau resonance with the thermal plasmaspheric electrons, and subsequent transport of the dissipating wave energy into the ionosphere below causes an ionosphere temperature enhancement. Under certain conditions, relativistic electrons, with energies 21 MeV, can be removed from the outer radiation belt by EMIC wave scattering during a magnetic storm. That is why the modeling of EMIC waves is critical and timely issue in magnetospheric physics. This study will generalize the self-consistent theoretical description of RC ions and EMIC waves that has been developed by Khazanov et al. [2002, 2003] and include the heavy ions and propagation effects of EMIC waves in the global dynamic of self-consistent RC - EMIC waves coupling. The results of our newly developed model that will be presented at the meeting, focusing mainly on the dynamic of EMIC waves and comparison of these results with the previous global RC modeling studies devoted to EMIC waves formation. We also discuss RC ion precipitations and wave induced thermal electron fluxes into the ionosphere.

Khazanov, G. V.↗

NASA NTRS1996

A Green's function method for high charge and energy ion transport

A heavy-ion transport code using Green's function methods is developed. The low-order perturbation terms exhibiting the greatest energy variation are used as dominant energy-dependent terms, and the higher order collision terms are evaluated using nonperturbative methods. The recently revised NUCFRG database is used to evaluate the solution for comparison with experimental data for 625A MeV 20Ne and 517A MeV 40Ar ion beams. Improved agreements with the attenuation characteristics for neon ions are found, and reasonable agreement is obtained for the transport of argon ions in water.

Energy Transfer↗