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The Safe Urban Harvests Study: A Community-Driven Cross-Sectional Assessment of Metals in Soil, Irrigation Water, and Produce from Urban Farms and Gardens in Baltimore, Maryland

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence suggests social, health, environmental, and economic benefits of urban agriculture (UA). However, limited work has characterized the risks from metal contaminant exposures faced by urban growers and consumers of urban-grown produce. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to answer community-driven questions about the safety of UA and the consumption of urban-grown produce by measuring concentrations of nine metals in the soil, irrigation water, and urban-grown produce across urban farms and gardens in Baltimore, Maryland. METHODS: We measured concentrations of 6 nonessential [arsenic (As), barium (Ba), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), lead (Pb), nickel (Ni)] and three essential [copper (Cu), manganese (Mn), zinc (Zn)] metals in soil, irrigation water, and 13 types of urban-grown produce collected from 104 UA sites. We compared measured concentrations to existing public health guidelines and analyzed relationships between urban soil and produce concentrations. In the absence of guidelines for metals in produce, we compared metals concentrations in urban-grown produce with those in produce purchased from farmers markets and grocery stores (both conventionally grown and U.S. Department of Agriculture–certified organic). RESULTS: Mean concentrations of all measured metals in irrigation water were below public health guidelines. Mean concentrations of nonessential metals in growing area soils were below public health guidelines for Ba, Cd, Pb, and Ni and at or below background for As and Cr. Though we observed a few statistically significant differences in concentrations between urban and nonurban produce items for some combinations, no consistent or discernable patterns emerged. DISCUSSION: Screening soils for heavy metals is a critical best practice for urban growers. Given limitations in existing public health guidelines for metals in soil, irrigation water, and produce, additional exposure assessment is necessary to quantify potential human health risks associated with exposure to nonessential metals when engaging in UA and consuming urban-grown produce. Conversely, the potential health benefits of consuming essential metals in urban-grown produce also merit further research. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9431

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Exploration Measures Harmonized Across HERA, NEK, and ISS Teams Risk

The Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Exploration Measures (HFBP-EM) suite is a set of standardized measures to assess behavioral health and performance risk related to future exploration class missions, and to support reduction of the Human Research Program’s (HRP) Behavioral Medicine (BMed), Team, Sleep, and Human Systems Integration Architecture risks. HFBP-EM were collected during Human Exploration Research Analogs (HERA) campaigns 4 (C4) and 5 (C5), and during SIRIUS 17 and 19 missions in the Russian Ground Based Experiment Complex, NEK, to document the feasibility, flexibility, and acceptability of these measures in analogs of the spaceflight environment. A subset of the HFBP-EM suite was collected during spaceflight as part HRP’s Standard Measures in Spaceflight Project. Whenever possible, the HFBP-EM protocol and measures are kept the same across studies, however, differences across research settings (e.g., experimental manipulations, mission scenarios, mission length) and implementation of the measures require the data are harmonized to ensure comparable views across missions. The purpose of our project is to develop a harmonized database of HFBP-EM data from different settings, and to summarize the trajectory of behavioral health and performance within and between research settings. In this presentation, we will summarize the harmonized dataset and the trajectory of measures related to the Team Risk, including team performance, team cohesion, team processes, and psychological safety, over time and between and within settings.

S T Bell↗

Soil, Foodstuffs, and Biota Program [Slides]

We use several environmental monitoring tools to assess ecosystem health and in part, risk to human health. Generally, the concentrations of chemicals we observe are below background and screening levels. All of our monitoring data are available in Intellus, and our analyses and results are reported in the Annual Site Environmental Report. Our program is only one of several monitoring programs at LANL, others include air, surface water, ground water, canyon sediments. We strive to improve the program by incorporating new monitoring techniques, monitoring new locations, monitoring new chemicals of interest, and by using robust statistical analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Signaling Pathways Involved in Lunar Dust Induced Cytotoxicity

The Moon's surface is covered by a layer of fine, reactive dust. Lunar dust contain about 1-2% of very fine dust (< 3 micron), that is respirable. The habitable area of any lunar landing vehicle and outpost would inevitably be contaminated with lunar dust that could pose a health risk. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the toxicity of Apollo moon dust in rodents to assess the health risk of dust exposures to humans. One of the particular interests in the study is to evaluate dust-induced changes of the expression of fibrosis-related genes, and to identify specific signaling pathways involved in lunar dust-induced toxicity. F344 rats were exposed for 4 weeks (6h/d; 5d/wk) in nose-only inhalation chambers to concentrations of 0 (control air), 2.1, 6.1, 21, and 61 mg/m(exp 3) of lunar dust. Five rats per group were euthanized 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, and 3 months after the last inhalation exposure. The total RNAs were isolated from the blood or lung tissue after being lavaged, using the Qigen RNeasy kit. The Rat Fibrosis RT2 Profile PCR Array was used to profile the expression of 84 genes relevant to fibrosis. The genes with significant expression changes are identified and the gene expression data were further analyzed using IPA pathway analysis tool to determine the signaling pathways with significant changes.

Zhang, Ye↗

Preparing for Human Missions to Mars: The role of ISS and Artemis as Analogs for Research and Technology Testing

The hazards of spaceflight to the human system are present in in varying degrees on different spaceflight platforms: altered gravity, isolation and confinement, distance from Earth, radiation, and hostile closed environments. A strategic view of the fidelity of hazards experienced on different platforms can shape the testing plans for human research and technology demonstration related to crew health and performance. Working across the international partnership, the International Space Station (ISS) is planning periods of modified operations to improve the fidelity of Mars simulations. To understand transit durations as an independent variable, a series of 1-year, 6-month and 30-45 day missions are being planned on ISS. Standard measurements across ISS missions of different durations, lunar missions and ground analogs offers the opportunity to distinguish different hazards and their effects in the context of the relevance to future mission concepts. The ISS partnership is planning for additional test cases that are aligned with Mars mission plans. (1) Evaluating crew performance capabilities when transitioning to gravity after long durations in microgravity representative of a Mars transit. (2) Simulating crew medical care under Mars-like autonomous operations. (3) Identification and testing of operations under communications delay and autonomy expected for Mars missions and the linked effects on behavioral health and performance of the crew. Artemis missions serve as a valuable analogs for Mars surface operations, with partial gravity and deep space radiation hazards, but with crewmembers that are probably more physically capable than their counterparts would be after a Mars transit. Getting unobtrusive data from early Artemis missions, and knowledge gained from operational experience as Artemis operations develop can improve engineering design, medical requirements and countermeasures, and ultimately ensure mission success on Mars. Linking Mars architectures with the plans and capabilities for ISS and Artemis allows us to plan to most operationally relevant tests of crew health and performance on current spaceflight missions to inform planning for future missions to Mars. By using human spaceflight platforms as well as ground simulation in an integrated way, the international community can improve exploration readiness, develop countermeasures and reduce risks of future human space missions.

International Space Station↗

Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Exploration Measures Harmonized Across HERA, NEK, And ISS: Behavioral Medicine Risk

The Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Exploration Measures (HFBP-EM) suite is a set of standardized measures used to assess behavioral health and performance risks related to future exploration class space missions. The HFBP-EM addresses the Human Research Program’s (HRP) Behavioral Medicine (BMed), Team, Sleep, and Human Systems Integration Architecture risks. HFBP-EM were collected during Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) campaigns 4 and 5, and during SIRIUS 17 and 19 missions in the Russian Ground Based Experiment Complex, NEK, to document the feasibility, flexibility, and acceptability of these measures in analogs of spaceflight environments. A subset of the HFBP-EM suite was collected in spaceflight as part of the HRP Standard Measures in Spaceflight Project. Whenever possible, the HFBP-EM protocol and measures are the same across studies, differences across research settings (e.g., experimental manipulations, mission scenarios, and mission length) and implementation of the measures require that the data are harmonized to ensure comparable views across missions. The purpose of our project was to develop a harmonized database of analyzable HFBP-EM data from spaceflight and analog settings, and to summarize the trajectory of behavioral health and performance outcomes within and between mission settings. In this presentation, we will summarize the harmonized dataset and the trajectory of BMed related measures including depression, neurobehavioral function, mood, cognition, and operationally relevant individual performance over time and by campaign and mission.

S T Bell↗

Introduction to Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT)

A key component in the development of NASA Human Research Programs (HRP) next generation risk model, the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) intends to deliver a means to quantify how HRP products impact astronaut medical and health risks. MEDPRAT is extensible to the majority of exploration missions. Similar to other risk models, the tool utilizes the available space and terrestrial medical data. MEDPRAT is designed to be extended with additional human health research information, medical equipment, space and terrestrial standards and practices to assess space flight medical risk in a manner consistent with other risk measures used in spacecraft and mission design. This tool provides risk-based medical system design information necessary to evaluate new technologies, procedures, research insights and mission plans.

physiological response↗

Rapid Electrochemical Detection and Identification of Microbiological and Chemical Contaminants for Manned Spaceflight Project

Microbial control in the spacecraft environment is a daunting task, especially in the presence of human crew members. Currently, assessing the potential crew health risk associated with a microbial contamination event requires return of representative environmental samples that are analyzed in a ground-based laboratory. It is therefore not currently possible to quickly identify microbes during spaceflight. This project addresses the unmet need for spaceflight-compatible microbial identification technology. The electrochemical detection and identification platform is expected to provide a sensitive, specific, and rapid sample-to-answer capability for in-flight microbial monitoring that can distinguish between related microorganisms (pathogens and non-pathogens) as well as chemical contaminants. This will dramatically enhance our ability to monitor the spacecraft environment and the health risk to the crew. Further, the project is expected to eliminate the need for sample return while significantly reducing crew time required for detection of multiple targets. Initial work will focus on the optimization of bacterial detection and identification. The platform is designed to release nucleic acids (DNA and RNA) from microorganisms without the use of harmful chemicals. Bacterial DNA or RNA is captured by bacteria-specific probe molecules that are bound to a microelectrode, and that capture event can generate a small change in the electrical current (Lam, et al. 2012. Anal. Chem. 84(1): 21-5.). This current is measured, and a determination is made whether a given microbe is present in the sample analyzed. Chemical detection can be accomplished by directly applying a sample to the microelectrode and measuring the resulting current change. This rapid microbial and chemical detection device is designed to be a low-cost, low-power platform anticipated to be operated independently of an external power source, characteristics optimal for manned spaceflight and areas where power and computing resources are scarce.

Pierson, Duane↗

NASA 2010 Pharmacology Evidence Review

In 2008, the Institute of Medicine reviewed NASA's Human Research Program Evidence in assessing the Pharmacology risk identified in NASA's Human Research Program Requirements Document (PRD). Since this review there was a major reorganization of the Pharmacology discipline within the HRP, as well as a re-evaluation of the Pharmacology evidence. This panel is being asked to review the latest version of the Pharmacology Evidence Report. Specifically, this panel will: (1) Appraise the descriptions of the human health-related risk in the HRP PRD. (2) Assess the relevance and comprehensiveness of the evidence in identifying potential threats to long-term space missions. (3) Assess the associated gaps in knowledge and identify additional areas for research as necessary.

Steinberg, Susan↗

Strategies for Quantifying Human Space Flight Performance in the Crew Health and Performance System

The Crew Health and Performance-Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) team at NASA Glenn Research Center is planning a customized approach to quantify human spaceflight performance changes with respect to changes to the CHP system functions and capabilities. Using the Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG) initiated by NASA’s Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB) [1], the team is surveying potential candidate models and novel strategies that generate metrics suitable for supporting decision making related to how the CHP system may influence human system performance risk. One such investigation includes classic Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) models. Traditionally, HRA methods estimate the occurrence of human errors and their impact on the success of an activity when designing and operating a system. While humans perceive, interpret, decide on, and carry out a course of action, the factors affecting performance and error likelihood are commonly referred to as performance shaping factors (PSFs). Originally developed to alleviate safety concerns related to nuclear power plant operations, HRA methods such as THERP [2] and CREAM [3] dismantle an activity into tasks, requiring elemental steps to be executed, and assess their failure due to predefined PSFs. In this study, we compare generic HRA methods and those that incorporate some human spaceflight aspects, such as sleep conditions (SCREAM [4]), with respect to how they may be adopted to capture performance with an intention to mitigate detrimental outcomes elucidated by the HSRB DAGs. We suggest strategies to quantify astronaut performance specific to spaceflight activities and illustrate how such concepts may help in optimizing the CHP system capabilities with respect to Artemis missions.

dag↗

Projecting Changes in the Frequency and Magnitude of Ozone Pollution Events Under Uncertain Climate Sensitivity

Abstract Climate change is projected to worsen ozone pollution over many populated regions, with larger impacts at higher concentrations. More intense and frequent ozone episodes risk setbacks to human health and environmental policy achievements. However, assessing these changes is complicated by uncertain climate sensitivity, closely related to climate model response, and internal variability in simulations projecting climate's influence on air quality. Here, leveraging a global modeling framework that one‐way couples a human activity model, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, and an atmospheric chemistry model, we investigate the role of climate sensitivity in climate‐induced changes to high ozone pollution episodes in the United States using multiple greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, representations of climate sensitivity, and initial condition members. We bias correct and evaluate historical model simulations, identifying modeled and observed O 3 episodes using extreme value theory, and extend the approach to projections of mid‐ and end‐century climate impacts. Results show that the influence of climate sensitivity can be as significant as that of greenhouse gas emissions scenario absent precursor emissions changes. Climate change is projected to increase the magnitude of the highest annually occurring O 3 concentrations by over 2.3 ppb on average across the U.S. at mid‐century under a high climate sensitivity and moderate emissions scenario, but the increase is limited to less than 0.3 ppb under lower climate sensitivity. Further, we show that areas in the U.S. currently meeting air quality standards risk being pushed into non‐compliance due to a climate‐induced increase in frequency of high ozone days.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

The Future of Integrated Performance Modeling in the Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment Project

The NASA engineering community utilizes event-driven and fault-tree probabilistic techniques to classify risks in the space environment by taking advantage of the inherent knowledge of complex spaceflight system design and testing to quantify failure risk. In harmonizing the risk of human space flight, answering the question of ‘How do we balance health, performance and resource risks with other engineering risks on long duration space missions?’ remains a deeply challenging and largely qualitative practice. The Human Research Program’s Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) was a significant step forward in efforts to robustly quantify the risk to crew health for exploration missions. However, there remains a significant gap in the ability to comprehensively assess and characterize risk across the disparate functionalities and capabilities which comprise the Crew Health and Performance (CHP) system. The Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) project seeks to characterize CHP risks by expanding beyond the foundation established by its PRA predecessors like IMM and MEDPRAT, that simulate medical risk metrics like loss of crew life and evacuations. One of the new risk measures in the CHP-PRA system is embodied in our Performance Risk Model (PRisM). PRisM provides a novel way of assessing crew performance on mission tasks, using a generalized framework which relates back to NASA-STD-3001. This approach allows PRisM to capture and integrate data from a variety of different domains into a single, unified, reproducible representation of astronaut performance. In this presentation, we discuss the motivation for the CHP-PRA work and give a high level overview of the goals of the project, outline the forward work for PRisM, and discuss collaboration opportunities for the community who might explore if their domain knowledge and data could be represented, integrated, and quantified with these tools, whose outcomes are metrics useful for supporting operational mission planning and decision making.

Lauren McIntyre↗

Toxicological Risks During Human Space Exploration

The goal of toxicological risk assessment of human space flight is to identify and quantify significant risks to astronaut health from air pollution inside the vehicle or habitat, and to develop a strategy for control of those risks. The approach to completing a toxicological risk assessment involves data and experience on the frequency and severity of toxicological incidents that have occurred during space flight. Control of these incidents depends on being able to understand their cause from in-flight and ground-based analysis of air samples, crew reports of air quality, and known failures in containment of toxic chemicals. Toxicological risk assessment in exploration missions must be based on an evaluation of the unique toxic hazards presented by the habitat location. For example, lunar and Martian dust must be toxicologically evaluated to determine the appropriate control measures for exploration missions. Experience with near-earth flights has shown that the toxic products from fires present the highest risk to crew health from air pollution. Systems and payload leaks also present a significant hazard. The health risk from toxicity associated with materials offgassing or accumulation of human metabolites is generally well controlled. Early tests of lunar and Martian dust simulants have shown that each posses the potential to cause fibrosis in the lung in a murine model. Toxicological risks from air pollutants in space habitats originate from many sources. A number of risks have been identified through near-earth operations; however, the evaluation of additional new risks present during exploration missions will be a challenge.

James, John T.↗

Molecular speciation controls arsenic and lead bioaccessibility in fugitive dusts from sulfidic mine tailings

Communities nearby mine wastes in arid and semi-arid regions are potentially exposed to high concentrations of toxic metal(loid)s from fugitive dusts deriving from impoundments. To assess the relation between potentially lofted particles and human health risk, we studied the relationship between pharmacokinetic bioaccessibility and metal(loid) molecular speciation for mine tailings dust particulate matter (PM), with elevated levels of arsenic and lead (up to 59 and 34 mmol kg -1 , respectively), by coupling in vitro bioassay (IVBA) with X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS). Mine tailing efflorescent salts (PM ES ) and PM from the surface crust (0–1 cm, PM SC ) and near surface (0–25 cm) were isolated to <10 μm and <150 μm effective spherical diameter (PM 10 and PM 150 ) and reacted with synthetic gastric and lung fluid for 30 s to 100 h to investigate toxic metal(loid) release kinetics. Bioaccessible (BAc) fractions of arsenic and lead were about 10 and 100 times greater in gastric than in lung fluid simulant, respectively, and 10–100% of the maximum gastric BAc from PM 10 and PM 150 occurred within 30 s, with parabolic dissolution of fine, highly-reactive particles followed by slower release from less soluble sources. Evaporite salts were almost completely solubilized in gastric-fluid simulants. Arsenate within jarosite and sorbed to ferrihydrite, and lead from anglesite, were identified by XAS as the principal contaminant sources in the near surface tailings. In the synthetic lung fluid, arsenic was released continuously to 100 h, suggesting that residence time in vivo must be considered for risk determination. Analysis of pre- and post-IVBA PM indicated the release of arsenic in lung fluid was principally from arsenic-substituted jarosite, whereas in synthetic gastric fluid arsenic complexed on ferrihydrite surfaces was preferentially released and subsequently repartitioned to jarosite-like coordination at extended exposures. Lead dissolved at 30 s was subsequently repartitioned back to the solid phase as pyromorphite in phosphate rich lung fluid. The bioaccessibility of lead in surface tailings PM was limited due to robust sequestration in plumbojarosite. Kinetic release of toxic elements in both synthetic biofluids indicated that a single IVBA interval may not adequately describe release dynamics.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Performance Assessment of the Active Trenches in 200 East and 200 West Low-Level Burial Grounds at the Hanford Site

The purpose of this document is to provide the assessment of the long-term human health and environmental risk associated with the continued disposal of radioactive wastes in the active trenches of the 200 East and 200 West Area Low-Level Burial Grounds (LLBGs) at the Hanford Site (Figure ES-1), as required by DOE O 435.1, Radioactive Waste Management1. Since July 1, 2004, the only active trenches in the 200 West Area LLBGs are the lined Trenches 31 and 34 used for the disposal of containerized low-level waste and mixed low-level waste (Figure ES-2). The only active trench in the 200 East Area LLBGs is the unlined Trench 94 that was used for the disposal of naval reactor compartments (Figure ES-3). Trenches 31 and 34 are intended to be used until they reach their disposal capacity while Trench 94 will be used and expanded as necessary to meet the needs of the U.S. Navy.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Scenario development for safety assessment in deep geologic disposal of high-level radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel: A review

Radiation and radioactive substances result in the production of radioactive wastes which require safe management and disposal to avoid risks to human health and the environment. To ensure permanent safe disposal, the performance of a deep geological repository for radioactive waste is assessed against internationally agreed risk-based standards. Assessing postclosure safety of the future system's evolution includes screening of features, events, and processes (FEPs) relevant to the situation, their subsequent development into scenarios, and finally the development and execution of safety assessment (SA) models. Global FEP catalogs describe important natural and man-made repository system features and identify events and processes that may affect these features into the future. By combining FEPs, many of which are uncertain, different possible future system evolution scenarios are derived. Repository licensing should consider both the reference or “base” evolution as well as alternative futures that may lead to radiation release, pollution, or exposures. Scenarios are used to derive and consider both base and alternative evolutions, often through production of scenario-specific SA models and the recombination of their results into an assessment of the risk of harm. Furthermore, while the FEP-based scenario development process outlined here has evolved somewhat since its development in the 1980s, the fundamental ideas remain unchanged. A spectrum of common approaches is given here (e.g., bottom–up vs. top–down scenario development, probabilistic vs. bounding handling of uncertainty), related to how individual numerical models for possible futures are converted into a determination as to whether the system is safe (i.e., how aleatoric uncertainty and scenarios are integrated through bounding or Monte Carlo approaches).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Satellite Monitoring of Cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Bloom Frequency in Recreational Waters and Drinking Water Sources

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHAB) cause extensive problems in lakes worldwide, including human and ecological health risks, anoxia and sh kills, and taste and odor problems. CyanoHABs are a particular concern in both recreational waters and drinking water sources because of their dense biomass and the risk of exposure to toxins. Successful cyanoHAB assessment using satellites may provide an indicator for human and ecological health protection. In this study, methods were developed to assess the utility of satellite technology for detecting cyanoHAB frequency of occurrence at locations of potential management interest. The European Space Agency's MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) was evaluated to prepare for the equivalent series of Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Colour Imagers (OLCI) launched in 2016 as part of the Copernicus program. Based on the 2012 National Lakes Assessment site evaluation guidelines and National Hydrography Dataset, the continental United States contains 275,897 lakes and reservoirs greater than 1 ha in area. Results from this study show that 5.6% of waterbodies were resolvable by satellites with 300 m single-pixel resolution and 0.7% of waterbodies were resolvable when a three by three pixel (3 x 3-pixel) array was applied based on minimum Euclidian distance from shore. Satellite data were spatially joined to U.S. public water surface intake (PWSI) locations, where single-pixel resolution resolved 57% of the PWSI locations and a 3 x 3-pixel array resolved 33% of the PWSI locations. Recreational and drinking water sources in Florida and Ohio were ranked from 2008 through 2011 by cyanoHAB frequency above the World Health Organizations (WHO) high threshold for risk of 100,000 cells m/L. The ranking identified waterbodies with values above the WHO high threshold, where Lake Apopka, FL (99.1%) and Grand Lake St. Marys, OH (83%) had the highest observed bloom frequencies per region. The method presented here may indicate locations with high exposure to cyanoHABs and therefore can be used to assist in prioritizing management resources and actions for recreational and drinking water sources.

Cyanobacteria↗

Managing Space Radiation Risks On Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗