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The Value Proposition of Multi-Megawatt Electric Power/Propulsion for the Human Exploration of Mars

NASA and other space agencies have been offering stakeholders an architecture for the human exploration of Mars that has remained essentially unchanged since the 1960's. The mission duration and launch mass are the two first order figures of merit that drive the total cost of such an architecture. The options studied to date center on the "conjunction class" or "Long Stay" mission, in which surface infrastructure elements are sent ahead on uncrewed, slow trajectories requiring a minimum amount of propellant, and the crewed elements are sent at the synotic cycle's shortest trajectory, stay on Mars until the next close alignment, and then return to Earth. Total crewed mission durations for these architectures range from 900 to 1100 days, with variations driven primarily by trades between the amount of propellant launched and the effective specific mass of the propulsion technology assumed (e.g., chemical, nuclear thermal, solar electric, nuclear electric). Mars transit propulsion systems assumed in mission architectures studied to date have all resulted in architectural figures of merit that drive the cost to a level of "too much." However, nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) technology offers a "knob" that might be turned to enable a radically different Mars architecture, whose launch mass and mission duration may enable a value proposition more palatable to mission stakeholders. Mars architectures studied to date have assumed an NEP system providing 2.5 MWe at a specific mass of no less than 20 kg/kWe. This has often been seen as obtainable with a moderately high temperature fission reactor. An NEP system providing 15 MWe at specific mass of ~1 kg/kWe, though, could enable a short stay (30 days on surface) Mars mission, requiring only two or three SLS-class launch vehicles and a total mission duration of under one calendar year. However, turning this NEP "knob" would require a high risk development program driving innovation on the order of that delivered by the Manhattan Project, but for a fraction of the cost. Any technology option that might offer such a capability at such a development cost now stands at a low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 3, would be based on a nuclear energy source (likely fusion), and would require an extremely high risk (and rapid) development effort. The aggressive, parallel path project management paradigm exemplified by the original Manhattan Project might have the best chance of success. An energy source developed in this manner may also have a major impact on the terrestrial power industry.

power↗

Scientific Investigations Associated with the Human Exploration of Mars in the Next 35 Years

A human mission to Mars would present an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the earliest history of the solar system. This history that has largely been overwritten on Earth by active geological processing throughout its history, but on Mars, large swaths of the ancient crust remain exposed at the surface, allowing us to investigate martian processes at the earliest time periods when life first appeared on the Earth. Mars' surface has been largely frozen in place for 4 billion years, and after losing its atmosphere and magnetic field what re-mains is an ancient landscape of former hydrothermal systems, river beds, volcanic eruptions, and impact craters. This allows us to investigate scientific questions ranging from the nature of the impact history of the solar system to the origins of life. We present here a summary of the findings of the Human Science Objectives Science Analysis Group, or HSO-SAG chartered by MEPAG in 2015 to address science objectives and landing site criteria for future human missions to Mars (Niles, Beaty et al. 2015). Currently, NASA's plan to land astronauts on Mars in the mid 2030's would allow for robust human exploration of the surface in the next 35 years. We expect that crews would be able to traverse to sites up to 100 km away from the original landing site using robust rovers. A habitat outfitted with state of the art laboratory facilities that could enable the astronauts to perform cutting edge science on the surface of Mars. Robotic/human partnership during exploration would further enhance the science return of the mission.

Niles, P. B.↗

Human Exploration of Mars: The Reference Mission of the NASA Mars Exploration Study Team

Personnel representing several NASA field centers have formulated a "Reference Mission" addressing human exploration of Mars. This report summarizes their work and describes a plan for the first human missions to Mars, using approaches that are technically feasible, have reasonable risks, and have relatively low costs. The architecture for the Mars Reference Mission builds on previous work of the Synthesis Group (1991) and Zubrin's (1991) concepts for the use of propellants derived from the Martian Atmosphere. In defining the Reference Mission, choices have been made. In this report, the rationale for each choice is documented; however, unanticipated technology advances or political decisions might change the choices in the future.

Stephen J Hoffman↗

Achieving And Sustaining Human Exploration of Mars The Fourth Community Workshop (AM IV)

About a half decade ago, several professionals working mainly in industry on scenarios for initial human exploration of Mars exploration together recognized that, under generally similar assumptions, there was a fair degree of similarity among these scenarios. Moreover, opportunities should be sought for greater community input into NASAs own scenario-building for the future of human space flight. A series of focused community workshops were considered to be effective to critically assess the increasingly sophisticated scenarios. Explore Mars, Inc. the American Astronautical Society agreed to support them. Four workshops to date each involve about sixty professional scientists, engineers, technologists, and strategists from NASA, academia, aerospace corporations, the National Academies, consulting organizations, and potential international partners. Each workshop produced a series of presentations and reports briefed to NASA leadership and other stakeholders.

Achieving Sustaining Human Exploration of Mars The↗

Making Human Exploration of Mars Biologically Reversible

Mars is interesting because it may have had life in the past and because it may be a place for life in the future. However we are uncertain of the current state of life on Mars. There are at least three possibilities: 1) there is life on Mars that is distinctly different from life on Earth, 2) there is life on Mars that is genetically related to life on Earth, 3) there is no life on Mars. Until we know which of these possibilities is correct we must explore Mars in a way that keeps our options open with respect to future life. I argue that this means that we must explore Mars in a way that is biologically reversible. In this paper I discuss the implications for reversible exploration for human missions to Mars.

Kay, Chris↗

Life Support and Habitation and Planetary Protection Workshop

A workshop entitled "Life Support and Habitation and Planetary Protection Workshop" was held in Houston, Texas on April 27-29, 2005 to facilitate the development of planetary protection guidelines for future human Mars exploration missions and to identify the potential effects of these guidelines on the design and selection of related human life support, extravehicular activity and monitoring and control systems. This report provides a summary of the workshop organization, starting assumptions, working group results and recommendations. Specific result topics include the identification of research and technology development gaps, potential forward and back contaminants and pathways, mitigation alternatives, and planetary protection requirements definition needs. Participants concluded that planetary protection and science-based requirements potentially affect system design, technology trade options, development costs and mission architecture. Therefore early and regular coordination between the planetary protection, scientific, planning, engineering, operations and medical communities is needed to develop workable and effective designs for human exploration of Mars.

Hogan, John A.↗

Human Exploration of Mars: Preliminary Lists of Crew Tasks

This is a preliminary report of ongoing research that has identified 1,125 tasks that are likely to be performed during initial human expeditions to Mars. The purpose of the report is to facilitate immediate access to the task inventory by researchers whose efforts might benefit from concrete examples of the work that will likely be performed by the first human explorers of Mars and the tasks for which crew members must be prepared to perform in response to emergencies. The research that led to the task lists is being conducted under Cooperative Agreement NNX15AW34G / NNX16AQ86G for the Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Element, Human Performance Program, NASA’s Johnson Space Center. The study is ongoing and will conclude with a final report that documents all research activities and presents the results of task and ability analyses and the implications of study results to crew size and composition, personnel selection and training, and design of equipment and procedures. The research addresses the Risk of Inadequate Mission, Process, and Task Design and the Risk of Performance Errors Due to Training Deficiencies by identifying the work that will be performed during an expedition to Mars and the abilities, skills, and knowledge that will be required of crew members. The study began by developing the comprehensive inventory of 1,125 tasks that are likely to be performed during the 12 phases of initial human expeditions to Mars, from launch to landing 30 months later. This full-mission task inventory was generated by a comprehensive review of documentation and concepts of operations with the understanding that plans and tasks might change in response to continuing technological development. Note: This interim report includes no discussion of analyses and has been prepared solely to facilitate dissemination of the task lists to others whose research might benefit from detailed information about the work and other activities that are likely to be performed during the human exploration of Mars.

Stuster, Jack W.↗

Resources from Water-Rock Interactions for Future Human Exploration of Mars

One of the most exciting endeavors in modern space exploration is extended human exploration of the Moon and Mars. We have entered a new phase in the human venture where we seek to expand our "...presence deeper into space and to the Moon for sustainable long-term exploration and utilization". With this endeavor come new challenges. Among them is the requirement for In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) methods to supplement or replace materials transported from Earth. The energy required to leave Earth's gravity well is immense, as is well illustrated by the nearly 3000 metric ton Saturn V required to deliver a payload of less than 50 metric tons to the Moon during the Apollo era. Much of this mass is propellant. Launch vehicles from Earth into space are generally 85 to 95% propellant (oxidizer + fuel) by mass. Potential ascent vehicles from Mars would also need to be approximately 80% propellant by mass to return to Earth. ISRU of fuel reactants could exchange delivered fuel mass directly for payload mass on the order of several metric tons. Devices like MOXIE are being designed to address the oxidizer component. However, 40% of the propellant mass in an ascent vehicle is the fuel reactant, and ISRU of this component has not been addressed for Mars or the Moon. Toward addressing this need, we have begun to develop and optimize methods to generate and recover fuel components, including H2, from Lunar and Martian relevant materials as potential in situ resources for future extended human missions. Hydrogen is an ideal resource to target. Not only can H2 be used directly as part of a propellant, it can also be used as a component in other fuels, such as methane. It is useful agriculturally for fixing nitrogen and can be oxidized to produce heat and water.

Adcock, C. T.↗

Lunar precursor missions for human exploration of Mars--III: studies of system reliability and maintenance

Discussions of future human expeditions into the solar system generally focus on whether the next explorers ought to go to the Moon or to Mars. The only mission scenario developed in any detail within NASA is an expedition to Mars with a 500-day stay at the surface. The technological capabilities and the operational experience base required for such a mission do not now exist nor has any self-consistent program plan been proposed to acquire them. In particular, the lack of an Abort-to-Earth capability implies that critical mission systems must perform reliably for 3 years or must be maintainable and repairable by the crew. As has been previously argued, a well-planned program of human exploration of the Moon would provide a context within which to develop the appropriate technologies because a lunar expedition incorporates many of the operational elements of a Mars expedition. Initial lunar expeditions can be carried out at scales consistent with the current experience base but can be expanded in any or all operational phases to produce an experience base necessary to successfully and safely conduct human exploration of Mars. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Moon↗

Achievable Human Exploration of Mars: Highlights from The Fourth Community Workshop (AM IV)

About a half decade ago, several professionals working mainly in industry on scenarios for initial human exploration of Mars together recognized that, under generally similar assumptions, there was a fair degree of similarity among these scenarios. Moreover, opportunities should be sought for greater community input into NASA's own scenario-building for the future of human space flight. A series of focused community workshops were considered to be effective to assess these scenarios and involve more directly the science community, including planetary protection, with industry. Four workshops to date each involve about sixty professional scientists, engineers, technologists, and strategists from NASA, academia, aerospace corporations, the National Academies, consulting organizations, and potential international partners.

human mission of Mars↗

HEDS Goals

In November of 1996, NASA made the decision to fully integrate several areas of robotic and human Mars exploration study and planning. As a result of this decision, requirements for unmanned robotic missions to support human Mars exploration were identified and a plan to meet these requirements was developed. Concrete progress in the implementation of this plan has been made. Three experiments have been selected and are in development for the Mars Surveyor Program 2001 Orbiter and Lander missions which will provide critical data for the planning of human missions to Mars. An Announcement of Opportunity for the Mars Surveyor Program 2003 Lander mission has recently been released which solicited proposals related to planning for a human mission. In order to define HEDS objectives for Mars robotic missions, it is important to understand what information is required as a foundation for mounting a program of exploration of this magnitude. We identify areas of research on robotic missions that will enable future human missions. These areas include Site Selection for Human Missions, Hazards to Human Explorers, Living off the Land, and Testing Critical Technologies in the Mars Environment.

Pline, A.↗

A Subjective Assessment of Alternative Mission Architecture Operations Concepts for the Human Exploration of Mars at NASA Using a Three-Dimensional Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model

The primary driver for developing missions to send humans to other planets is to generate significant scientific return. NASA plans human planetary explorations with an acceptable level of risk consistent with other manned operations. Space exploration risks can not be completely eliminated. Therefore, an acceptable level of cost, technical, safety, schedule, and political risks and benefits must be established for exploratory missions. This study uses a three-dimensional multi-criteria decision making model to identify the risks and benefits associated with three alternative mission architecture operations concepts for the human exploration of Mars identified by the Mission Operations Directorate at Johnson Space Center. The three alternatives considered in this study include split, combo lander, and dual scenarios. The model considers the seven phases of the mission including: 1) Earth Vicinity/Departure; 2) Mars Transfer; 3) Mars Arrival; 4) Planetary Surface; 5) Mars Vicinity/Departure; 6) Earth Transfer; and 7) Earth Arrival. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and subjective probability estimation are used to captures the experts belief concerning the risks and benefits of the three alternative scenarios through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes.

Tavana, Madjid↗

Science Driven Human Exploration of Mars

Mars appears to be cold dry and dead world. However there is good evidence that early in its history it had liquid water, more active volcanism, and a thicker atmosphere. Mars had this earth-like environment over three and a half billion years ago, during the same time that life appeared on Earth. The main question in the exploration of Mars then is the search for a independent origin of life on that planet. Ecosystems in cold, dry locations on Earth - such as the Antarctic - provide examples of how life on Mars might have survived and where to look for fossils. Fossils are not enough. We will want to determine if life on Mars was a separate genesis from life on Earth. For this determination we need to access intact martian life; possibly frozen in the deep old permafrost. Human exploration of Mars will probably begin with a small base manned by a temporary crew, a necessary first start. But exploration of the entire planet will require a continued presence on the Martian surface and the development of a self sustaining community in which humans can live and work for very long periods of time. A permanent Mars research base can be compared to the permanent research bases which several nations maintain in Antarctica at the South Pole, the geomagnetic pole, and elsewhere. In the long run, a continued human presence on Mars will be the most economical way to study that planet in detail. It is possible that at some time in the future we might recreate a habitable climate on Mars, returning it to the life-bearing state it may have enjoyed early in its history. Our studies of Mars are still in a preliminary state but everything we have learned suggests that it may be possible to restore Mars to a habitable climate. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

McKay, Christopher P.↗

Planetary Protection Issues in the Human Exploration of Mars

This workshop report, long delayed, is the first 21st century contribution to what will likely be a series of reports examining the effects of human exploration on the overall scientific study of Mars. The considerations of human-associated microbial contamination were last studied in a 1990 workshop ("Planetary Protection Issues and Future Mars Missions," NASA CP-10086, 1991), but the timing of that workshop allowed neither a careful examination of the full range of issues, nor an appreciation for the Mars that has been revealed by the Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Pathfinder missions. Future workshops will also have the advantage of Mars Odyssey, the Mars Exploration Rover missions, and ESA's Mars Express, but the Pingree Park workshop reported here had both the NCR's (1992) concern that "Missions carrying humans to Mars will contaminate the planet" and over a decade of careful study of human exploration objectives to guide them and to reconcile. A daunting challenge, and one that is not going to be simple (as the working title of this meeting, "When Ecologies Collide?" might suggest), it is clear that the planetary protection issues will have to be addressed to enable human explorers to safely and competently extend out knowledge about Mars, and its potential as a home for life whether martian or human.

Criswell, Marvin E.↗

Solar Power System Evaluated for the Human Exploration of Mars

The electric power system is a crucial element of any mission for the human exploration of the Martian surface. The bulk of the power generated will be delivered to crew life support systems, extravehicular activity suits, robotic vehicles, and predeployed in situ resource utilization (ISRU) equipment. In one mission scenario, before the crew departs for Mars, the ISRU plant operates for 435 days producing liquefied methane and oxygen for ascent-stage propellants and water for crew life support. About 200 days after ISRU production is completed, the crew arrives for a 500-day surface stay. In this scenario, the power system must operate for a total of 1130 days (equivalent to 1100 Martian "sols"), providing 400 MW-hr of energy to the ISRU plant and up to 18 kW of daytime user power. A photovoltaic power-generation system with regenerative fuel cell (RFC) energy storage has been under study at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field. The conceptual power system is dominated by the 4000- m2 class photovoltaic array that is deployed orthogonally as four tent structures, each approximately 5 m on a side and 100-m long. The structures are composed of composite members deployed by an articulating mast, an inflatable boom, or rover vehicles, and are subsequently anchored to the ground. Array panels consist of thin polymer membranes with thin-film solar cells. The array is divided into eight independent electrical sections with solar cell strings operating at 600 V. Energy storage is provided by regenerative fuel cells based on hydrogen-oxygen proton exchange membrane technology. Hydrogen and oxygen reactants are stored in gaseous form at 3000 psi, and the water produced is stored at 14.7 psi. The fuel cell operating temperature is maintained by a 40-m2 deployable pumped-fluid loop radiator that uses water as the working fluid. The power management and distribution (PMAD) architecture features eight independent, regulated 600-Vdc channels. Power management and distribution power cables use various gauges of copper conductors with ethylene tetrafluoroethylene insulation. To assess power system design options and sizing, we developed a dedicated Fortran code to predict detailed power system performance and estimate system mass. This code also modeled the requisite Mars surface environments: solar insolation, Sun angles, dust storms, dust deposition, and thermal and ultraviolet radiation. Using this code, trade studies were performed to assess performance and mass sensitivities to power system design parameters (photovoltaic array geometry and orientation) and mission parameters (landing date and landing site latitude, terrain slope, and dust storm activity). Mission analysis cases were also run. Power results are shown in this graph for an analysis case with a September 1, 2012, landing date; 18.95 North latitude landing site; two seasonal dusts storms; and tent arrays. To meet user load requirements and the ISRU energy requirement, an 8-metric ton (MT) power system and 4000-m2 photovoltaic array area were required for the assumed advanced CuInS2 thin-film solar cell technology. In this figure, the top curve is the average daytime photovoltaic array power, the middle curve is average daytime user load power, and the bottom curve is nighttime power. At mission day 1, daytime user power exceeds 120 kW before falling off to 80 kW at the end of the mission. Throughout the mission, nighttime user power is set to the nighttime power requirement. In this analysis, "nighttime" is defined as the 13- to 15-hr period when array power output is below the daytime power requirement. During dust storms, power system capability falls off dramatically so that by mission day 900, a daily energy balance cannot be maintained. Under these conditions, the ISRU plant is placed in standby mode, and the regenerative fuel cell energy storage is gradually discharged to meet user loads.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗

Challenges of Human Exploration of Mars

To inform about current NASA Vision, International Space Exploration Coordination Group, Capabilities and Enablers and challenges associated with Human Exploration of Mars.

Gill, Tracy R.↗

Automating CapCom: Pragmatic Operations and Technology Research for Human Exploration of Mars

During the Apollo program, NASA and the scientific community used terrestrial analog sites for understanding planetary features and for training astronauts to be scientists. More recently, computer scientists and human factors specialists have followed geologists and biologists into the field, learning how science is actually done on expeditions in extreme environments. Research stations have been constructed by the Mars Society in the Arctic and American southwest, providing facilities for hundreds of researchers to investigate how small crews might live and work on Mars. Combining these interests-science, operations, and technology-in Mars analog field expeditions provides tremendous synergy and authenticity to speculations about Mars missions. By relating historical analyses of Apollo and field science, engineers are creating experimental prototypes that provide significant new capabilities, such as a computer system that automates some of the functions of Apollo s CapCom. Thus, analog studies have created a community of practice-a new collaboration between scientists and engineers-so that technology begins with real human needs and works incrementally towards the challenges of the human exploration of Mars.

Clancey, William J.↗

Recommendations Emerging from an Analysis of NASA's Deep Space Communications Capacity

During 2016-2017, NASA’s Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Office chartered a study of Deep Space Network (DSN) communications capacity relative to projected future-mission demand over the next 30 years. In this paper, we briefly describe the methodology used to analyze capacity vs. demand over such a broad timeframe, summarize key findings emerging from the analysis, and discuss the associated recommendations. Performing the analysis entailed: identifying key factors shaping the anticipated future mission set, identifying several alternative future mission set scenarios consistent with these factors, and then analyzing each mission set scenario in terms of required antenna capacity, downlink and uplink capabilities, and spectrum as a function of time. On the basis of these aggregate requirements, DSN loading simulations were then conducted that examined how well each of the postulated mission sets could load up onto the the DSN’s “in-plan” architecture. To the extent that capacity shortfalls emerged during these baseline simulations, architectural solutions to the shortfalls were then postulated and tested via additional simulations. In general, the trend analyses and baseline loading simulations indicated a significant progression in challenges over the next three decades. In the current decade, the DSN appeared to be operating very close to capacity. The first human exploration mission and its secondary payload launch opportunities for cubesats traveling beyond GEO contributed to this loading. As a consequence, the main challenge appeared to be managing peak assetcontention periods. In the next decade, the DSN continued to operate close to capacity but also began transitioning to more frequent human mission support. Upgrading for, and operating, a human-rated system while continuing to meet robotic mission customer requirements emerged as the key challenge. In the 2030’s and beyond, simulations suggested a need for fundamentally new capability and capacity. The high data rates and long link distances characteristic of human Mars exploration drove requirements far beyond what is currently “in plan.” The key challenge then became determining the most cost-effective combination of RF and optical assets for communicating with the postulated human Mars assets while still providing for the needs of all the other missions across the solar system. Various link budget, visibility, and loading analyses ultimately suggested that the human Mars exploration demands of the 2030’s could best be addressed with two cross-linked RF-optical areostationary relays (or an areostationary relay and deep space habitat) providing a dual “trunk link” to an array of 2-to-3 additional 34m beam waveguide antennas and an ~8.5m optical antenna at each DSN Complex. The dual “trunk link” would enable the same amount of total data return to Earth as a single trunk link at twice the data rate, but with only half the required array size on the ground, assuming use of Multiple Spacecraft Per Antenna (MSPA) techniques. MSPA techniques, including a Multiple Uplink Per Antenna (MUPA) technique currently under investigation, also showed promise for reducing asset contention in the decades prior to human Mars exploration.

Lee, Carlyn-Ann↗