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NASA NTRS2023

Marin County Wildfires Ii: Improving Fire Suppression Modeling to Inform Fire Prevention and Suppression Decisions in Marin County, Ca

A future of increased wildfires requires greater integration of spatial analysis and local knowledge of emergency responders. We examine the application of a Potential Operational Delineations (PODs) framework for strategic pre-fire planning in Marin County. PODs are spatial units for wildfire management that combine predictive modeling and local firefighter expertise to identify potential control locations as unit boundaries and assess the difficulty of suppression within units. Additionally, this project explores the integration of road networks and social vulnerability to assess environmental justice in evacuation safety. This project constitutes a novel application of the PODs framework as it integrates expertise from Marin County senior firefighters with a Fireline Location Model (FLM) to achieve POD definition and uses a Suppression Difficulty Score (SDS) to rank each POD. The FLM uses network analysis and hydrologic modeling to identify key roads and ridgelines as boundaries and combines them with expert knowledge, in the form of workshops, to construct PODs. Once identified, PODs are classified using SDS, which includes processed inputs such as LiDAR-derived aboveground biomass, ECOSTRESS Evaporative Stress Index, land use cover type from Sentinel-2 Imagery, and a digital elevation model. Environmental justice for evacuation safety incorporated three key road metrics such as connectivity, travel area, and exit capacity, the Social Vulnerability Index from the Center for Disease Control, and cell coverage to determine a final Evacuation Difficulty Score. Results indicate a strong link between road networks as primary POD boundaries, with ridgelines and waterways as secondary and tertiary locations. Specifically, we find 78.5% of expertise-identified POD boundaries align with FLM-determined boundaries. More validation is needed to support this process; however, initial results signal a feasible framework to integrate expertise and spatial analysis in local level strategic fire planning

Wildfire modeling↗
NASA NTRS2003

Time-Variable Gravity and Ocean Connections

Any large mass transport in the Earth system produces changes in the gravity field. Low harmonic degree components of such gravity variations have been observed by the satellite-laser-ranging (SLR) technique for the past quarter century, particularly in 52, the Earth's dynamic oblateness. 52 undergoes a slight decrease due primarily to the post-glacial rebound of the mantle, but large interannual anomalies have been observed, notably during 1998-2002. Intriguing evidences for the cause of the latter have been found in the extratropical Pacific basins, especially related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and perhaps in related land hydrology. We will examine the latest results based on ocean altimetry, sea-surface temperature, and ocean and hydrology model outputs. Without firm estimates for the steric effects (which have no gravity signal), we will point out possible underestimation of OGCMs with respect to temporal variabilities. Besides J2, SLR also derived time series for other low-degree gravity components. While the formal uncertainty of these terms is significantly higher, some of these series have significant signal that show correlation to various climatic signals. For example, there is a significant correlation of the sectoral S2,2 with the Southern Oscillation Index signifying the influence of El Nino/La Nina. Cases such as these demonstrate the utility of assessing the mass component of climate variations, and anticipate the utility of GRACE-type space gravity observations with much higher spatial resolution.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Chapter 8: Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires

Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record (very high confidence). While by some measures drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation, neither the precipitation increases nor inferred drought decreases have been confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. The human effect on recent major U.S. droughts is complicated. Little evidence is found for a human influence on observed precipitation deficits, but much evidence is found for a human influence on surface soil moisture deficits due to increased evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures. Future decreases in surface (top 10 cm) soil moisture from anthropogenic forcing over most of the United States are likely as the climate warms under higher scenarios. Substantial reductions in western U.S. winter and spring snowpack are projected as the climate warms. Earlier spring melt and reduced snow water equivalent have been formally attributed to human-induced warming (high confidence) and will very likely be exacerbated as the climate continues to warm (very high confidence). Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible by the end of this century. Detectable changes in some classes of flood frequency have occurred in parts of the United States and are a mix of increases and decreases. Extreme precipitation, one of the controlling factors in flood statistics, is observed to have generally increased and is projected to continue to do so across the United States in a warming atmosphere. However, formal attribution approaches have not established a significant connection of increased riverine flooding to human-induced climate change, and the timing of any emergence of a future detectable anthropogenic change in flooding is unclear. The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate warms, with profound changes to certain ecosystems.

Wehner, M. F.↗
NASA NTRS2003

From the South Pole to the Northern Plains: The Argyre Planitia Story

Parker (1985, 1994) first described evidence for catastrophic flooding from a large lake or sea within Argyre Planitia through the Uzboi-Holden- Ladon-Margaritifer Valles system during the Noachian. The channel connection to Argyre had been recognized during the mid-1970s, based primarily on Russian orbiter images taken at that time. The most critical reviews of these inferences related to the relative timing of the plains materials, sinuous ridges, and debris aprons in southern Argyre, and the connection, via Uzboi Vallis, of ponding within Argyre to flooding through the Chryse Trough. The prevailing "competing" hypothesis for formation of materials within Argyre is that they are a result of south circumpolar glacial processes, with glacial scour and stagnation producing the pitting and sinuous ridges (eskers) on the basin floor rather than lacustrine erosion and deposition followed much later by a process akin to rock glacier formation of the debris aprons in a colder Amazonian climate. Argyre was part of a larger surface hydrological system that also included two large valley networks draining the Margaritifer Sinus region northwest of Argyre. The morphometry of these systems suggest a combination of precipitation and groundwater sapping, with surface runoff for their formation.

T J Parker↗
NASA NTRS2003

Low-Degree Time-Variable Gravity and Geophysical/Climatic Connections

Any large mass transport in the Earth system produces changes in the gravity field. Low harmonic degree components of such variations have been observed by the satellite-laser-ranging (SLR) technique, particularly in J2, the Earth's dynamic oblateness. J2 has long been observed to undergo a slight decrease due primarily to the post-glacial rebound of the mantle -- until around 1998, when it switched quite suddenly to an increase trend which continued to 2001 before turning back, signifymg a large, anomalous mass redistribution whose J2 effect overshadows that of the post-glacial rebound over interannual timescales. Intriguing evidences have been found in the extratropical Pacific basins, especially related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and in land hydrology. We will examine the latest results based on ocean altimetry, sea-surface temperature, and ocean and hydrology model outputs. Besides 52, the SLR-derived time series of the Earth's low-degree gravity components also show shorter wavelength zonal and other longitudinal signals. While the formal uncertainty of these terms is significantly higher, some of these series have significant signal that show correlation to various climatic signals. For example, the SLR-observed S2,l tesseral (and 53 zonal) coefficients compare favorably with those computed from the NCEP atmospheric pressure field. There is a significant correlation of the sectoral S2,2 with the Southern Oscillation Index signifying the influence of El NinoLa Nina, but preceding SO1 by about 1 year. Cases such as these demonstrate the utility of assessing the mass component of climate variations.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Characterizing land processes in the biosphere

NASA long-term planning for the satellite remote sensing of land areas is discussed from the perspective of a holistic interdisciplinary approach to the study of the biosphere. The earth is characterized as a biogeochemical system; the impact of human activity on this system is considered; and the primary scientific goals for their study are defined. Remote-sensing programs are seen as essential in gaining an improved understanding of energy budgets, the hydrological cycle, other biogeological cycles, and the coupling between these cycles, with the construction of a global data base and eventually the development of predictive simulation models which can be used to assess the impact of planned human activities. Current sensor development at NASA includes a multilinear array for the visible and IR and the L-band Shuttle Imaging Radar B, both to be flown on Shuttle missions in the near future; for the 1990s, a large essentially permanent man-tended interdisciplinary multisensor platform connected to an advanced data network is being planned.

Erickson, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

The diagram, which attests the El Nino teleconnection observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) in 1997, is an example of the results of our research in air-sea interaction - the core component of our three-part contribution to the Climate Variability Program. We have established an interplay among scientific research, which turns spacebased data into knowledge, a push in instrument technology, which improves observations of climate variability, and an information system, which produces and disseminates new data to support our scientific research. Timothy Liu led the proposal for advanced technology, in response to the NASA Post-2002 Request for Information. The sensor was identified as a possible mission for continuous ocean surface wind measurement at higher spatial resolution, and with the unique capability to measure ocean surface salinity. He is participating in the Instrument Incubator Program to improve the antenna technology, and is initiating a study to integrate the concept on Japanese missions. He and his collaborators have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind/stress data from NSCAT and European missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from Quikscat, and precipitation and evaporation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. It will form the basis for a spacebased data analysis system which will include momentum, heat and water fluxes. The study on 1997 El Nino teleconnection illustrates our interdisciplinary and multisensor approach to study climate variability. The diagram shows that the collapse of trade wind and the westerly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific led to the equatorial ocean warming. The equatorial wind anomalies are connected to the anomalous cyclonic wind pattern in the northeast Pacific. The anomalous warming along the west coast of the United States is the result of the movement of the pre-existing warm sea surface temperature anomalies with the cyclonic wind anomalies toward the coast. The results led to a new study which identifies decadal ocean variations in the Northeast Pacific. Three studies of oceanic responses to wind forcing caused by the seasonal change of monsoons, the passage of a typhoon, and the 1997 El Nino, were successfully conducted. Besides wind forcing, we continue to examine new techniques for estimating thermal and hydrologic fluxes, through the inverse ocean mixed-layer model, through divergence of atmospheric water transport, and by direct retrieval from radiances observed by microwave radiometers. Greenhouse warming has been linked to water vapor measured by two spaceborne sensors in two studies. In the first study, strong baroclinicity and deep convection were found to transport water vapor to the upper atmosphere and increase greenhouse trapping over the storm tracks of the North Pacific and Atlantic. In another study, the annual cycle of greenhouse warming were related to sea surface temperature (SST) and integrated water vapor, and the latitudinal dependence of the magnitudes and phases of the annual cycles were compared.

Liu, W. Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2004

Effects of Cloud-Microphysics on Tropical Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes in the GEOS GCM

The sensitivity of tropical atmospheric hydrologic processes to cloud-microphysics is investigated using the NASA GEOS GCM. Results show that a faster autoconversion - rate produces more warm rain and less clouds at all levels. Fewer clouds enhances longwave cooling and reduces shortwave heating in the upper troposphere, while more warm rain produces increased condensation heating in the lower troposphere. This vertical heating differential destablizes the tropical atmosphere, producing a positive feedback resulting in more rain over the tropics. The feedback is maintained via a two-cell secondary circulation. The lower cell is capped by horizontal divergence and maximum cloud detrainment near the melting/freezing, with rising motion in the warm rain region connected to descending motion in the cold rain region. The upper cell is found above the freezing/melting level, with longwave-induced subsidence in the warm rain and dry regions, coupled to forced ascent in the deep convection region. The tropical large scale circulation is found to be very sensitive to the radiative-dynamic effects induced by changes in autoconversion rate. Reduced cloud-radiation processes feedback due to a faster autoconversion rate results in intermittent but more energetic eastward propagating Madden and Julian Oscillations (MJO). Conversely,-a slower autconversion rate, with increased cloud radiation produces MJO's with more realistic westward propagating transients, resembling a supercloud cluster structure. Results suggests that warm rain and associated low and mid level clouds, i.e., cumulus congestus, may play a critical role in regulating the time-intervals of deep convections and hence the fundamental time scales of the MJO.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Hemispherically Asymmetric Volcanic Forcing of Tropical Hydroclimate During the Last Millennium

Volcanic aerosols exert the most important natural radiative forcing of the last millennium. State-of-the-art paleoclimate simulations of this interval are typically forced with diverse spatial patterns of volcanic forcing, leading to different responses in tropical hydroclimate. Recently, theoretical considerations relating the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) position to the demands of global energy balance have emerged in the literature, allowing for a connection to be made between the paleoclimate simulations and recent developments in the understanding of ITCZ dynamics. These energetic considerations aid in explaining the well-known historical, paleoclimatic, and modeling evidence that the ITCZ migrates away from the hemisphere that is energetically deficient in response to asymmetric forcing. Here we use two separate general circulation model (GCM) suites of experiments for the last millennium to relate the ITCZ position to asymmetries in prescribed volcanic sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere and related asymmetric radiative forcing. We discuss the ITCZ shift in the context of atmospheric energetics and discuss the ramifications of transient ITCZ migrations for other sensitive indicators of changes in the tropical hydrologic cycle, including global streamflow. For the first time, we also offer insight into the large-scale fingerprint of water isotopologues in precipitation (delta sup 18 Op) in response to asymmetries in radiative forcing. The ITCZ shifts away from the hemisphere with greater volcanic forcing. Since the isotopic composition of precipitation in the ITCZ is relatively depleted compared to areas outside this zone, this meridional precipitation migration results in a large-scale enrichment (depletion) in the isotopic composition of tropical precipitation in regions the ITCZ moves away from (toward). Our results highlight the need for careful consideration of the spatial structure of volcanic forcing for interpreting volcanic signals in proxy records and therefore in evaluating the skill of Common Era climate model output.

Radiative forcing↗
NASA NTRS2018

Learning Model Structural Uncertainty with Gaussian Processes

The advent of commercially available quantum computers has marked the beginning of quantum computing as a reality. Both quantum gate and annealing computers have been released by major computer hardware companies. In this work, the D-Wave 2XTM quantum annealing computer housed at the NASA Advanced Systems computational facility is investigated to accelerate Machine Learning (ML) for image registration. NASA collects large amounts of images over the globe remotely using space-based monitoring. Images of a fixed areas of the land surface are taken over time. Due to the orbit of the sensors, the viewing angles deviate slightly, and it is necessary to align or register the images precisely to create image time series over the land surface. Unaligned images can lead to substantial analysis errors. These time-series are then used in modeling Earth Systems models such as hydrological, weather, and carbon monitoring models. In this work, we consider the Moderate Resolution Image Spectrometer (MODIS) data collected by the NASA's terra satellite. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is a natural fit for ML modelling of images. Several successes have been reported using machine learning related to image processing. We investigate the use of ML to register MODIS images. ANNs are investigated in combination with a Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBM) as an auto-encoder. We will present results showing the accuracy and efficiency of this approach.The D-Wave 2XTM quantum annealer samples the ground-state wave-function of a spin-Ising systems with quadratic interactions between qubits and a Chimera connectivity. The system sits in a ~15 mK thermal bath. One can think of the system as being placed in the ground state initially and subject to thermal excitations governed by Boltzmann statistics. If this is assumed true, one can use the statistics from the D-Wave 2XTM to train RBMs. Generating statistics for training Boltzmann machines is an NP-hard problem and constitutes the largest compute cost. We investigate the use of the D-Wave 2XTM to accelerate the training of the RBMs in our ANNs and report on the results.

Kouatchou, Jules↗
NASA NTRS2018

Investigating Hydrometeorological Conditions Associated with Increasing Dust Events in Southwestern United States

A recent study (Tong et al. 2017) shows a rapid intensification of dust storm activity over the southwestern United States in the past decades. For example, the frequency of windblown dust storms has increased 240 percent from 1990s to 2000s. Increasing dust storms can worsen air quality in the region. The study also finds that the intensification of dust events has a close connection with a fast-rising infectious disease (valley fever) caused by inhaling soil-dwelling fungi (Coccidioides immitis and C. posadasii) in the southwestern United States. Hydrometeorological conditions play an important role in dust storm activity, including winds, precipitation, soil moisture, atmospheric boundary stability, land surface types, etc. In this presentation, we describe our preliminary results of linking the dust trends to variations of hydrometeorological conditions at regional and global scales, using a number of Earth observations, including products from NLDAS (North American Land Data Assimilation System), TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission), and MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications) datasets, from NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC). The GES DISC, one of the 12 NASA data centers, is home to multidisciplinary data archives such as precipitation, hydrology, atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric dynamics, etc. We demonstrate that multidisciplinary datasets and services at GES DISC can be used for interdisciplinary investigation to understand the interactions of Earth system components from an observational perspective.

satellite↗
NASA NTRS2004

Interannual Variations in Earth's Low-Degree Gravity Field and the Connections With Geophysical/Climatic Changes

Long-wavelength time-variable gravity recently derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) analysis have focused to a large extent on the effects of the recent (since 1998) large anomalous change in J2, or the Earth's oblateness, and the potential causes. However, it is relatively more difficult to determine whether there are corresponding signals in the shorter wavelength zonal harmonics from the existing SLR-derived time variable gravity results, although it appears that geophysical fluid mass transport is being observed. For example, the recovered J3 time series shows remarkable agreement with NCEP-derived estimates of atmospheric gravity variations. Likewise, some of the non-zonal spherical harmonic components have significant interannual signal that appears to be related to mass transport. The non-zonal degree-2 components show reasonable temporal correlation with atmospheric signals, as well as climatic effects such as El Nino Southern Oscillation. We will present recent updates on the J2 evolution, as well as a look at other low-degree components of the interannual variations of gravity, complete through degree 4. We will examine the possible geophysical and climatic causes of these low-degree time-variable gravity related to oceanic and hydrological mass transports, for example some anomalous but prominent signals found in the extratropic Pacific ocean related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗
NASA NTRS2026

Petermann Glacier on the Brink: Progress, Challenges and Insights

Petermann Glacier, the largest marine-terminating glacier in northern Greenland based on catchment area and ice discharge, plays a key role in regulating ice discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the Arctic Ocean. With an upstream catchment connected to the ice sheet interior via a deep subglacial canyon, its future stability has major implications for sea level rise. In this review, we synthesize recent advances in understanding Petermann’s dynamics across three critical interfaces: the ice–ocean, ice–atmosphere, and ice–bed boundaries. At the surface, observations show that reanalysis products underestimate air temperatures and melt, while regional climate models diverge significantly in their estimates of surface mass balance, underscoring the need for improved in situ data and models. At the ocean boundary, enhanced basal melting driven by both subglacial runoff and Atlantic water intrusions is identified as the dominant driver of recent mass loss of Petermann Glacier, with continued warming posing a serious threat to the stability of the floating tongue. At the bed, new geophysical synthesis reveals complex geology, likely spatial variability in geothermal heat flux, and the influence of the megacanyon on seasonal hydrology and velocity fluctuations. Petermann’s mass balance has been negative in recent decades without corresponding flow acceleration. However, the glacier has undergone significant calving events, and the current rifting that began in September 2025 highlights its vulnerability. This upcoming calving event underscores the timeliness of this review, as it will put Petermann Glacier’s terminus at its most retreated position since records began in 1923. The anticipated retreat of the ice tongue also reduces buttressing and brings the terminus closer to the grounding zone, and modeling studies suggest that calving within 12 km of the grounding zone could potentially trigger dynamic retreat, accelerating ice discharge, and a doubling of flow speeds. We conclude that improved observations, sustained monitoring of oceanographic and atmospheric properties, and high-resolution modeling are critical to constraining projections of Petermann Glacier’s future and its role in the stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Dominik Fahrner↗
NASA NTRS2022

Robustness of Vegetation Optical Depth Retrievals Based on L-Band Global Radiometry

Microwave vegetation optical depth (VOD) and soil moisture (SM) can be simultaneously retrieved based on L-band radiometry with polarization information. VOD is indicative of the vegetation water content (VWC) because it captures the extinction of land surface emission. If the connectivity of VOD to VWC is robust, the pair of VWC-SM observations can be viable bases for understanding soil–plant–atmosphere water relations, providing new perspectives on ecosystem science. Simultaneous SM–VOD retrievals are feasible by inverting the τ−ω model with two independent datasets in dual-channel algorithms. However, given correlated satellite vertical and horizontal brightness temperatures (TBs; TB v and TB h ), an ill-posed inverse problem arises where TB errors result in high uncertainties of retrievals. In this study, we apply the degrees-of-information (DoI) metric and propose a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) metric to assess the “retrievability” of VOD given the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) TB v –TB h linear dependence. The application of these metrics allows determining where the VOD retrievals are robust and reliable. This is a necessary step in supporting the applications of VOD in ecology and hydrology. Results show that regions with mainly nonwoody vegetation have the best potential for VOD retrievals, though regularization is necessary. We then assess VOD time variations from two regularization products that reduce the impact of underdetermined inversions: the L3 dual-channel algorithm (L3-DCA) and the multitemporal dual-channel algorithm (MTDCA), which constrain VOD time dynamics with and without using a priori VOD climatology, respectively. Though they both reduce noise, especially in the VOD retrievals, they result in differences in VOD seasonal amplitude and coupling to SM at high frequencies as we outline here.

Microwave↗
NASA NTRS2019

Connecting Space to Village: Tethys Adoption Within SERVIR

The SERVIR program, a joint development initiative of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and United States Agency for International Development (USAID), works in partnership with leading regional organizations world-wide to help developing countries use information provided by Earth observing satellites and geospatial technologies for managing climate risks and land use. SERVIR empowers decision-makers with tools, products, and services to act locally on critical issues related to four key areas: Food Security and Agriculture, Water and Water-related Disasters, Land Use/Land Cover and Ecosystems, Weather and Climate. SERVIR is improving awareness, increasing access to information, and supporting analysis to help people in West Africa, Eastern and Southern Africa, Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH), the Lower Mekong, South America and Mesoamerica. NASA funds an Applied Sciences Team (AST), composed of experts from universities and research institutions around the United States. Through AST, SERVIR adopted the Tethys platform introduced by Brigham Young University (BYU) for the implementation of tools to deliver scientific data to stakeholders in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region. Several Tethys applications developed within SERVIR have raised interest amongst decision makers in the countries served by our regional hubs. They see these new apps as key vehicles to disseminate complex information related to weather models, hydrological models, and air quality monitoring, and as such the scope of our Tethys efforts continue to expand to other regions. As of July 2019, each one of the SERVIR hubs (with the exception of Amazonia, which has only recently started), have stood up Tethys portals and have at least one individual trained in the implementation and maintenance of a Tethys portal and in the creation of basic applications. HKH, with BYU's valuable support, has implemented very sophisticated applications that showcase the possibilities and the benefits that the Tethys platform brings.

Tethys↗
NASA NTRS2019

An Overview of the Aerosol and Clouds-Convection-Precipitation Study (A-CCP) and its Relationship to the Geostationary AC-VC

The 2017 Decadal Survey (DS) highlighted Earth System Science themes, science and application questions, and several high priority objectives that have led to the inclusion of Aerosols (A) and Clouds-Convection-Precipitation (CCP) as Designated Observables (DOs) The aerosol-related science questions outlined by the DS focus on two major themes: 1) Climate Variability and Change and 2) Weather and Air Quality. The Aerosol mission observables targeted to address these major objectives may potentially contribute to three additional themes: 3) Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems, 4) Global Hydrological Cycle, and 5) Earth Surface and Interior; this study will examine these linkages.In response to NASA's Designated Observables Guidance for Multi-Center Study Plans released on June 1, 2018, GSFC, LaRC, JPL, MSFC, GRC and ARC submitted Study Plan to the NASA Earth Science Division for the Aerosol (A) and Cloud, Convection, and Precipitation (CCP) Pre-formulation Study (A-CCP). The DS recognized the science merit in combining the A and CCP DOs for both enhancing the ability to address a number of Most Important (MI) objectives defined by the disciplinary panels and also to provide an expanded capability to address additional objectives beyond those addressed by individual DOs. The DS also identified Integrating Themes that can also be addressed through combinations of observables including potential combinations of DOs and the PoR. The combined A+CCP portion of this study will demonstrate how the combination of A and CCP observables will enhance the objectives of A and CCP individually, while providing the ability to expand the DS objectives addressed, and will closely connect to the A and CCP studies being performed in parallel. A critical element of the A-CCP observing strategy is to make extensive use of the so-called Program-of-Record (PoR). In this regard, the Geostationary Atmospheric Composition Virtual Constellation consisting of the GEMS, TEMPO and SENTINEL-4 and other relevant geostationary assets will provide a critical foundation for A-CCP. In this talk we will discuss how the A-CCP measurements contributes to air-quality and the geostationary constellation, and conversely, how the geostationary constellation helps answering fundamental A-CCP science objectives.

Da Silva, Arlindo↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multi-source Estimates of Land / Ocean Moisture Transport Variability over the Satellite Era

It is widely appreciated that atmospheric transport of water from the world’s oceans is a process key to planetary energy balance as well as Earth's habitability. What is not yet clear is the extent of variability in moisture transports, the relative importance of interdecadal variability versus climate change signals, and importantly, our ability to quantify these changes. This work assesses variations in moisture transport variability during the satellite era (~1980 to present) by comparing several different estimates. (i) The most direct estimate is the vertically integrated flux convergence of moisture from reanalyses which use observed wind and moisture information. (ii) One alternative estimate comes from P-ET over land taken from global hydrologic models constrained with precipitation and near-surface meteorology. Here we use an ensemble of six models. An adjunct to this method is to employ satellite derive ET (e.g., GLEAM or DOLCE). (iii) Complementary to this is E-P over the global oceans derived from satellite estimates of P such as TRMM, GPM and GPCP and SeaFlux V3 or J-OFURO3 estimates of E, all relying heavily upon microwave measurements. Transport between land and oceans must essentially balance at monthly scales, i.e., vanish globally. (iv) a fourth perspective comes from estimate of terrestrial RO + storage rate, delta S. G-RUN Ensemble which uses observed streamflow and P measurements to calibrate a statistical model provides the former while GRACE, GRACE-FO provide total water storage anomalies used to calculate storage rate changes. GRACE REC uses GRACE data to train a precipitation-driven statistical model to extend storage estimates before the GRACE era. (All of these alternatives to reanalysis estimates also consider the small atmospheric column water vapor contribution.) We examine the transport changes from these three different methodologies, their relative accuracies and discuss the origin of their differences. Regional trends in moisture flux divergence and their role in multi-decadal trends are considered. Interannual variability arising in connection with ENSO variability is a dominant signal, driven largely by P changes. Trends since 1980 include reductions in moisture delivery to the western U.S., eastern Brazil, and central Africa with recovery of moisture convergence to the Sahel and parts of eastern North America.

Franklin Robertson↗