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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Automated Identification of Characteristic Droplet Size Distributions in Stratocumulus Clouds Utilizing a Data Clustering Algorithm

Abstract Droplet-level interactions in clouds are often parameterized by a modified gamma fitted to a “global” droplet size distribution. Do “local” droplet size distributions of relevance to microphysical processes look like these average distributions? This paper describes an algorithm to search and classify characteristic size distributions within a cloud. The approach combines hypothesis testing, specifically, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test, and a widely used class of machine learning algorithms for identifying clusters of samples with similar properties: density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) is used as the specific example for illustration. The two-sample KS test does not presume any specific distribution, is parameter free, and avoids biases from binning. Importantly, the number of clusters is not an input parameter of the DBSCAN-type algorithms but is independently determined in an unsupervised fashion. As implemented, it works on an abstract space from the KS test results, and hence spatial correlation is not required for a cluster. The method is explored using data obtained from the Holographic Detector for Clouds (HOLODEC) deployed during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign. The algorithm identifies evidence of the existence of clusters of nearly identical local size distributions. It is found that cloud segments have as few as one and as many as seven characteristic size distributions. To validate the algorithm’s robustness, it is tested on a synthetic dataset and successfully identifies the predefined distributions at plausible noise levels. The algorithm is general and is expected to be useful in other applications, such as remote sensing of cloud and rain properties. Significance Statement A typical cloud can have billions of drops spread over tens or hundreds of kilometers in space. Keeping track of the sizes, positions, and interactions of all of these droplets is impractical, and, as such, information about the relative abundance of large and small drops is typically quantified with a “size distribution.” Droplets in a cloud interact locally, however, so this work is motivated by the question of whether the cloud droplet size distribution is different in different parts of a cloud. A new method, based on hypothesis testing and machine learning, determines how many different size distributions are contained in a given cloud. This is important because the size distribution describes processes such as cloud droplet growth and light transmission through clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Hybrid approach for estimating dynamic states of synchronous generators

Accurate and robust estimation of dynamic states is essential for monitoring and controlling a power grid. To achieve higher accuracy and robustness, this paper proposes a hybrid estimation approach to estimate the dynamic states of synchronous generators using multiple models, classified into a set of local models and a wide-area model. The proposed estimation approach, first, estimates dynamic states using the extended Kalman filter (EKF) based on a local model and a wide-area model. Then, at each time step, probability indexes, which quantify the likelihood of both local and wide-area models, are determined using hypothesis testing based on measurements innovations. Finally, using the weighted fix approach, the states estimated from the local and wide-area models are combined based on their probability indexes. Simulation studies using the two-area four-machine system shows that the proposed approach can improve estimation accuracy and increase robustness against model errors.

Akhlaghi, Shahrokh↗
DOE OSTI2019

Spectral analysis for the M AJORNA D EMONSTRATOR experiment

The M AJORNA D EMONSTRATOR is an experiment constructed to search for neutrinoless double-beta decays in germanium-76 and to demonstrate the feasibility to deploy a ton-scale experiment in a phased and modular fashion. It consists of two modular arrays of natural and 76 Ge-enriched germanium detectors totaling 44.1kg (29.7kg enriched detectors), located at the 4850' level of the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, USA. Data taken with this setup since summer 2015 at different construction stages of the experiment show a clear reduction of the observed background index around the ROI for 0$νββ$- decay search due to improvements in shielding. We discuss the statistical approaches to search for a 0$νββ$-signal and derive the physics sensitivity for an expected exposure of 10kg y from enriched detectors using a profile likelihood based hypothesis test in combination with toy Monte Carlo data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Overall Performance Losses and Activated Mechanisms in Double Glass and Glass-backsheet Photovoltaic Modules with Monofacial and Bifacial PERC Cells, under Accelerated Exposures

Commercial PV modules have various packaging choices nowadays, which influence their long-term reliability. This study compared the degradation behaviors of sixteen module variants from two brands with varying encapsulant materials (EVA or POE), encapsulant types, module architectures (GB or DG), and cell types (monofacial or bifacial) using null hypothesis testing to determine statistical significant findings. The modules were exposed for 2,520 hours under two accelerated exposures: modified damp heat (mDH) and modified damp heat with full-spectrum light (mDH+FSL). For both brands, two DG module variants with UV-Cutoff rear encapsulant are found to have significantly lower average power loss than the module variants of EVA+GB with opaque rear encapsulant after each accelerated exposure. Metallization interconnect corrosion is identified as the primary degradation mechanism. Furthermore, unsupervised hierarchical clustering finds that the degradation behaviors of modules from one brand with a more strict manufacturing quality control depends on module architectures only.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Particle Filter Based Inference Testing

The primary intent of PAR-FIT (Particle Filter based Inference Testing) is to provide hard inductive evidence that a machine learning model is capable and proven for an individual test input. By examining training data used to form the underlying model functional correlation, an estimate of the reliability that a model will make the correct prediction can be made. The Sequential Probability Ratio Test is used to derive a qualitative evaluation for reliability based on hypothesis testing. The PAR-FIT framework achieves this by implementing a particle filter and the sequential probability ratio test algorithms on the machine learning model training data to determine relevancy of new individual test samples to the training dataset. The kernel function evaluates the local proximity and density of training data used to derive a prediction outcome. Particles are used to probabilistically determine which training data to evaluate for proximity. For test samples that are within a close proximity to and surrounded by multiple training data points, the evaluated reliability of the prediction is high. For test samples that are anomalies not represented by the training dataset, in low density data clusters, or are far from existing data points, the evaluated reliability is low as insufficient training evidence exists to suggest the model is capable of making the correct prediction. Sequential Probability Ratio Test is further used to determine when a hypothesis on whether a signal can be rejected or accepted for use. The ratio test collects sequence information from the particle filter to test whether the signal is anomalous or normal via hypothesis testing of the underlying distributions.

Chen, Edward [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Ida↗
DOE OSTI2019

Characteristics of human-climate feedbacks differ at different radiative forcing levels

The human and Earth systems are intricately linked: climate influences agricultural production, renewable energy potential, and water availability, for example, while anthropogenic emissions from industry and land use change alter temperature and precipitation. Such feedbacks have the potential to significantly alter future climate change. These feedbacks may also exert significant changes on 21st-century energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections, but little is known about their possible magnitudes, or about regional and sector dynamics under different forcing scenarios. Here we use an integrated Earth System Model (ESM) featuring bidirectional information exchange between an economically-oriented integrated assessment model and the ESM to examine how human-natural feedbacks operate under high and medium radiative forcing (RF) scenarios. Specifically, we examine the effect of changing land productivity on human systems, and the effect of changing land use/land cover and CO2 emissions on the Earth system. We find that the effect of coupling differs across radiative forcing levels and across regions, due to differences in the climate signal, human responses to those signals, and regional characteristics. In particular, we find reductions in cropland area due to feedbacks in both the medium and high RF scenarios. In the medium RF scenario, these reductions result in increased area for bioenergy and afforestation and reduced energy system CO2 emissions, as the carbon price in this scenario incentivizes low carbon energy sources and terrestrial carbon storage; these incentives are absent in the high RF scenario. These differences are key to understanding the possible future evolution pathways of the integrated Earth system in response to 21st century climate change. Additional models and hypothesis testing are needed to determine exactly when and how bidirectional feedbacks between human and Earth systems should be considered in future assessments.

Calvin, Katherine V.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Kernelized Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test for Spectrum Sensing in Cognitive Radio

Spectrum sensing in next-generation wireless radio networks is considered a key technology to overcome the problem of spectrum scarcity. Unfortunately, many approaches to spectrum sensing do not work well in low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) environments. This paper proposes and analyzes a new algorithm named kernelized generalized likelihood ratio test (KGLRT) for spectrum sensing in cognitive radio systems to overcome this problem. Effectively, KGLRT uses a nonlinear kernel to map input data onto a high-dimensional feature space; then, the widely accepted (linear) generalized likelihood ratio test is used for hypothesis testing. This new algorithm gives a gain of 4 dB in SNR over its linear counterpart. A theoretical analysis for this algorithm is given for the first time and is shown analogous to algorithms used in image signal processing. The detection metrics are found to be concentrated random variables; furthermore, the probability distributions of the detection metrics are proved to follow the F -distributions, which agree with the results obtained using the concentration inequality. The analytical thresholds are derived for target false-alarm probabilities. Here, the thresholds are independent of noise power; thus, the proposed algorithm can overcome noise uncertainty issues at very low SNR levels. Simulations validate the theoretical results.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS1999

Study Design to Test the Hypothesis That Long-Term Space Travel Harms the Human and Animal Immune Systems

The potential threat of immunosuppression and abnormal inflammatory responses in long-term space travel, leading to unusual predilection for opportunistic infections, malignancy, and death, is of ma or concern to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Program. This application has been devised to seek answers to questions of altered immunity in space travel raised by previous investigations spanning 30-plus years. We propose to do this with the help of knowledge gained by the discovery of the molecular basis of many primary and secondary immunodeficiency diseases and by application of molecular and genetic technology not previously available. Two areas of immunity that previously received little attention in space travel research will be emphasized: specific antibody responses and non-specific inflammation and adhesion. Both of these areas of research will not only add to the growing body of information on the potential effects of space travel on the immune system, but be able to delineate any functional alterations in systems important for antigen presentation, specific immune memory, and cell:cell and cell:endothelium interactions. By more precisely defining molecular dysfunction of components of the immune system, it is hoped that targeted methods of prevention of immune damage in space could be devised.

Shearer, William T.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Testing the Hypothesis of Young Martian Volcanism: Studies of the Tharsis Volcanoes and Adjacent Lava Plains

We experienced much success in reaching our stated goals in our original MDAP proposal. Our work made substantial contributions towards an integrated understanding of the counting and calibration of crater data on Mars, and changing nature of the Martian surface influenced by craters, water, and wind, and their general relationship to Martian geothermal history. We accomplished this while being to responsive to the rapid changes in the field brought about by several key NASA missions that returned data during the life of the grant. Our integrated effort included three stages: The first major area of research (Crater Count Research) was conducted by Jennifer Grier (P.I.), Lazslo Keszthelyi (Collaborator), William Hartmann (Collaborator), with assistance from Dan Berman (Graduate student) and concerned the mapping and the collection of crater count data on various Martian terrains. The second major area of study (Absolute Age Calibration) was conducted by William Bottke (Co-I) at SWRI, and concerned constraining the nature of the Moon and Mars impactor populations to create better absolute age calibrations for counted areas. The third major area of study was the integration and leverage of this effort with ongoing related Mars crater work at PSI (Integrated and Continuing Studies - Older Volcanoes), headed by David Crown (PSI Scientist), assisted by Les Bleamaster (PSI Scientist) and Dan Berman (Graduate Student).

Grier, Jennifer A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Mini Survey of SDSS [OIII] AGN with Swift: Testing the Hypothesis that L(sub [OIII]) Traces AGN Luminosity

The number of AGN and their luminosity distribution are crucial parameters for our understanding of the AGN phenomenon. Recent work strongly suggests every massive galaxy has a central black hole. However most of these objects either are not radiating or have been very difficult to detect We are now in the era of large surveys, and the luminosity function (LF] of AGN has been estimated in various ways. In the X-ray band. Chandra and XMM surveys have revealed that the LF of hard X-ray selected AGN shows a strong luminosity-dependent evolution with a dramatic break towards low L(sub x) (at all z). This is seen for all types of AGN, but is stronger for the broad-line objects. In sharp contrast, the local LF of optically-selected samples shows no such break and no differences between narrow and broad-line objects. If as been suggested, hard X ray and optical emission line can both can be fair indicators of AGN activity, it is important to first understand how reliable these characteristics are if we hope to understand the apparent discrepancy in the LFs.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

A novel framework for increasing research transparency: Exploring the connection between diversity and innovation

A split sample/dual method research protocol is demonstrated to increase transparency while reducing the probability of false discovery. We apply the protocol to examine whether diversity in ownership teams increases or decreases the likelihood of a firm reporting a novel innovation using data from the 2018 United States Census Bureau’s Annual Business Survey. Transparency is increased in three ways: 1) all specification testing and identifying potentially productive models is done in an exploratory subsample that 2) preserves the validity of hypothesis test statistics fromde novoestimation in the holdout confirmatory sample with 3) all findings publicly documented in an earlier registered report and in this journal publication. Bayesian estimation procedures that leverage information from the exploratory stage included in the confirmatory stage estimation replace traditional frequentist null hypothesis significance testing. In addition to increasing statistical power by using information from the full sample, Bayesian methods directly estimate a probability distribution for the magnitude of an effect, allowing much richer inference. Estimated magnitudes of diversity along academic discipline, race, ethnicity, and foreign-born status dimensions are positively associated with innovation. A maximally diverse ownership team on these dimensions would be roughly six times more likely to report new-to-market innovation than a homophilic team.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2020

CRNT4SBML: a Python package for the detection of bistability in biochemical reaction networks

Motivation: Signaling pathways capable of switching between two states are ubiquitous within living organisms. They provide the cells with the means to produce reversible or irreversible decisions. Switchlike behavior of biological systems is realized through biochemical reaction networks capable of having two or more distinct steady states which are dependent on initial conditions. Investigation of whether a certain signaling pathway can confer bistability involves a substantial amount of hypothesis testing. The cost of direct experimental testing can be prohibitive. Therefore, constraining the hypothesis space is highly bene?cial. One such methodology is based on Chemical Reaction Network Theory which uses computational techniques to rule out pathways that are not capable of bistability regardless of kinetic constant values and molecule concentrations. Although useful, these methods are complicated from both pureandcomputationalmathematicsperspectives.Thus,theiradoptionisverylimitedamongstbiologists. Results: We brought Chemical Reaction Network Theory approaches closer to experimental biologists by automating all the necessary steps in CRNT4SMBL. The input is based on SBML format which is the community standard for biological pathway communication. The tool parses SBML and derives C-graph representations of the biological pathway with mass action kinetics. Next steps involve an ef?cient search for potential saddle-node bifurcation points using an optimization technique. This type of bifurcation is important as it has the potential of acting as a switching point between two steady states. Finally, if any bifurcation points are present, numerical continuation analysis extends the equilibria branches for generating the diagram. Presence of an S-shaped bifurcation diagram indicates that the pathway acts as a bistable switch for the given optimization parameters. Availability: CRNT4SBML is available via the Python Package Index. The documentation can be found at https://crnt4sbml.readthedocs.io. CRNT4SBML is licensed under the Apache Software License 2.0. Contact: vladislav.petyuk@pnnl.gov

Reyes, Brandon C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Separating Sensor Anomalies From Process Anomalies in Data-Driven Anomaly Detection

Data-driven anomaly detection over time series data is studied from the perspective of separating data anomalies—corresponding to sensor failures—from process anomalies—that arise from equipment or operational failures. Herein, a semi-supervised approach is proposed that utilizes two predictive models trained on non-anomalous data using two different sensor groups as inputs, and a nested hypothesis test to reliably classify data or process anomalies. Conditions are derived on choice of sensor groups to guarantee reliable detection, and a case study is presented to demonstrate the proposed classification approach.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microphysical Sensitivity of Superparameterized Precipitation Extremes in the Contiguous United States Due to Feedbacks on Large-Scale Circulation

Superparameterized (SP) global climate models have been shown to better simulate various features of precipitation relative to conventional models, including its diurnal cycle as well as its extremes. While various studies have focused on the effect of differing microphysics parameterizations on precipitation within limited-area cloud-resolving models, we examine here the effect on contiguous U.S. (CONUS) extremes in a global SP model. We vary the number of predicted moments for hydrometeor distributions, the character of the rimed ice species, and the representation of raindrop self-collection and breakup. Using a likelihood ratio test and accounting for the effects of multiple hypothesis testing, we find that there are some regional differences, particularly during spring and summer in the Southwest and the Midwest, in both the current climate and a warmer climate with uniformly increased sea surface temperatures. These differences are most statistically significant and widespread when the number of moments is changed. To determine whether these results are due to (fast) local effects of the different microphysics or the (slower) ensuing feedback on the large-scale atmospheric circulation, we run a series of short, 5-day simulations initialized from reanalysis data. We find that the differences largely disappear in these runs and therefore infer that the different parameterizations impact precipitation extremes indirectly via the large-scale circulation. Finally, we compare the present-day results with hourly rain gauge data and find that SP underestimates extremes relative to observations regardless of which microphysics scheme is used given a fixed model configuration and resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

The influence of land-atmosphere interactions on variability of the North American Monsoon

Our project focused on the influence of land-atmosphere interactions on variability of North American Monsoon System (NAMS) precipitation is summarized in seven published manuscripts (listed below). Three of these manuscripts (Matsui et al. 2003; Matsui et al. 2005; Small and Kurc 2003) were completed solely with support from this NASA project. The remaining four were completed with additional support from NOAA. Our primary results are summarized: 1) Test of Rocky Mountains snowcover-NAMS rainfall hypothesis. Testing radiation and convective precipitation parameterization in MM5. Analysis of soil moisture-radiation feedbacks in semiarid environments from field observations and modeling.

Small, Eric↗