Results for “IMPACT” — Page 4

DOE OSTI2025

Long-term decarbonization impacts on residential energy security across income groups and US states

Abstract The impact of a transition to a net-zero economy on the residential energy sector across diverse income groups in the US remains uncertain. Here, we employ an integrated human-Earth system model, incorporating an expanded set of ten income groups in the residential energy sector, to examine the distributional impacts of long-term decarbonization scenarios on residential energy security at the state level through 2050. We use multiple metrics of energy security, including energy burden, energy satiation gap, and the distribution of energy service across income groups. Our findings show that the net-zero decarbonization scenarios affect residential energy security differently across income groups, with low-to-mid-income groups experiencing larger negative impacts on the dimensions studied here. Comparatively, climate change impact on residential energy security is minor through 2050 based on our model outcomes. Specifically, the net-zero decarbonization scenarios lead to increased energy burden across all income groups and states in 2050, where the lowest (highest) income group in each state shows an average of 0.6 (0.2) percentage point increase in energy burden, relative to the business-as-usual in 2050. The distribution of energy service consumption across income groups is also slightly more skewed under these scenarios. As incomes grow across all deciles in the future, residential energy security generally improves through 2050. Targeted interventions could mitigate the disproportionate impacts that some groups could incur under a transition to a net-zero economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? (Final Economic Impact Results) [Slides]

The Village of Questa, New Mexico is aiming to become a regional clean energy hub with robust and diverse employment opportunities for the local community supported by the energy sector and by other businesses inspired or attracted by abundant clean energy, outdoor recreation, and cultural opportunities. A coalition of stakeholders in the Village of Questa, comprising the Village, Kit Carson Electric Cooperative (KCEC), Questa Economic Development Fund, and Chevron, is exploring options to develop hydrogen production facilities as an opportunity to create jobs, provide reliable clean energy, and utilize former mine resources. Questa is home to a molybdenum mine owned by Chevron that closed in 2014. Several residents in Questa and surrounding communities lost their jobs when the mine closed and transitioned from active operations into environmental remediation. Although remediation efforts have been ongoing since 2014 and are expected to continue for at least 16 more years, the number of jobs with Chevron is much smaller now than it was before the closure. Between available workforce, brownfield land, and water rights formerly supporting mine operations but now in a transition period, there are considerable local resources that could be directed toward clean energy generation. Questa's electricity supply is already 100% solar during daylight hours thanks to Kit Carson Electric Cooperative's (KCEC's) strategic decision-making and partnering over the last decade. Now, Questa, KCEC, and Chevron are exploring the potential costs and benefits of siting an electrolytic hydrogen production facility and additional solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Questa to further advance the region's clean energy economy. In this report, we estimated the potential economic impacts (i.e., jobs, value added, gross output, tax revenue) of constructing and operating a combined hydrogen (32 MW polymer electrolyte membrane electrolizer + 7.5 MW fuel cell) and solar facility (22.5 MW) in the Village of Questa, as well as the resulting economic spillovers to Taos County and the state of New Mexico. We employ an input-output model that leverages IMPLAN's economic data for the region complemented by construction and operating expenses estimated by NREL and feedback from the local coalition to evaluate the direct, indirect and induced effects of the project construction (transient impacts) and operation (more permanent impacts). Based on the area's average trade profile, feedback from the coalition and current market conditions, these projects are expected to support 487 full-time equivalent jobs during construction, generating $\$24$ million in income for those workers and $\$82$ million in local economic activity in the state. Of those jobs, 106 are expected to be construction sector jobs. These investments are also estimated to add $\$36.5$ million to New Mexico's gross state product (GSP). In the Village of Questa, we estimate 16 jobs will be supported in construction and transportation industries, generating $\$0.9$ million in earnings. In Taos County, the construction phase is expected to support 285 jobs primarily in construction and professional services, while manufacturing jobs dominate the results for the Rest of New Mexico. The Village is also estimated to receive $\$0.9$ million in tax revenue from the construction phase alone. Once in operation, the project continues to impact the state and Questa. Around 20 jobs (full-time equivalent for each year of operation) are supported across New Mexico, with approximately 11 directly employed in Questa by both facilities. The total annual local economic activity supported by ongoing operations is just over $\$1.3$ million/yr, generating $\$1.6$ million/yr in additional income in the state. Annual operations are estimated to add $\$2.1$ million to the state's GSP. The Village is expected to receive around $\$43,000$/yr in tax revenue. Impacts vary significantly depending on which businesses are supplying materials, equipment and services, and where construction workers reside. Choosing local suppliers will most benefit Questa and the New Mexico economy, adding up to 500 jobs during construction and 13 long-term jobs. Local and state governments may consider ways to incentivize local businesses in order to maximize economic benefits.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? Final Economic Impact Results

The Village of Questa, New Mexico is aiming to become a regional clean energy hub with robust and diverse employment opportunities for the local community supported by the energy sector and by other businesses inspired or attracted by abundant clean energy, outdoor recreation, and cultural opportunities. A coalition of stakeholders in the Village of Questa, comprising the Village, Kit Carson Electric Cooperative (KCEC), Questa Economic Development Fund, and Chevron, is exploring options to develop hydrogen production facilities as an opportunity to create jobs, provide reliable clean energy, and utilize former mine resources. Questa is home to a molybdenum mine owned by Chevron that closed in 2014. Several residents in Questa and surrounding communities lost their jobs when the mine closed and transitioned from active operations into environmental remediation. Although remediation efforts have been ongoing since 2014 and are expected to continue for at least 16 more years, the number of jobs with Chevron is much smaller now than it was before the closure. Between available workforce, brownfield land, and water rights formerly supporting mine operations but now in a transition period, there are considerable local resources that could be directed toward clean energy generation. Questa's electricity supply is already 100% solar during daylight hours thanks to Kit Carson Electric Cooperative's (KCEC's) strategic decision-making and partnering over the last decade. Now, Questa, KCEC, and Chevron are exploring the potential costs and benefits of siting an electrolytic hydrogen production facility and additional solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Questa to further advance the region's clean energy economy. In this report, we estimated the potential economic impacts (i.e., jobs, value added, gross output, tax revenue) of constructing and operating a combined hydrogen (32 MW polymer electrolyte membrane electrolizer + 7.5 MW fuel cell) and solar facility (22.5 MW) in the Village of Questa, as well as the resulting economic spillovers to Taos County and the state of New Mexico. We employ an input-output model that leverages IMPLAN's economic data for the region complemented by construction and operating expenses estimated by NREL and feedback from the local coalition to evaluate the direct, indirect and induced effects of the project construction (transient impacts) and operation (more permanent impacts). Based on the area's average trade profile, feedback from the coalition and current market conditions, these projects are expected to support 487 full-time equivalent jobs during construction, generating $\$24$ million in income for those workers and $\$82$ million in local economic activity in the state. Of those jobs, 106 are expected to be construction sector jobs. These investments are also estimated to add $\$36.5$ million to New Mexico's gross state product (GSP). In the Village of Questa, we estimate 16 jobs will be supported in construction and transportation industries, generating $\$0.9$ million in earnings. In Taos County, the construction phase is expected to support 285 jobs primarily in construction and professional services, while manufacturing jobs dominate the results for the Rest of New Mexico. The Village is also estimated to receive $\$0.9$ million in tax revenue from the construction phase alone. Once in operation, the project continues to impact the state and Questa. Around 20 jobs (full-time equivalent for each year of operation) are supported across New Mexico, with approximately 11 directly employed in Questa by both facilities. The total annual local economic activity supported by ongoing operations is just over $\$1.3$ million/yr, generating $\$1.6$ million/yr in additional income in the state. Annual operations are estimated to add $\$2.1$ million to the state's GSP. The Village is expected to receive around $\$43,000$/yr in tax revenue. Impacts vary significantly depending on which businesses are supplying materials, equipment and services, and where construction workers reside. Choosing local suppliers will most benefit Questa and the New Mexico economy, adding up to 500 jobs during construction and 13 long-term jobs. Local and state governments may consider ways to incentivize local businesses in order to maximize economic benefits.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Generating Technologies

The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and other cost metrics used in energy planning do not account for out-of-market impacts of the technology choice. While a decision-maker at the utility or asset owner level may compare multiple forms of electricity generating technology using LCOE, a decision-maker over energy policy or community stakeholders may be interested in considering impacts beyond those that LCOE measures. This report quantifies economic impacts such as jobs and wage growth across electricity generation technologies then develops an approach to systematically compare socioeconomic metrics across technology choices. To address additional workforce related impacts, this report also compares the typical workforce education requirements and annual income levels for multiple types of electricity generating facilities. The grid scale electricity generating technologies analyzed in this report produce power using conventional hydroelectric dams, coal, natural gas, nuclear reactors, solar PV, land-based wind turbines, geothermal heat, and woody biomass combustion. Although it doesn’t generate electricity itself, the economic impacts associated with battery storage equipment manufacturing and installation were also analyzed.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Planetesimal Impact Vapor Plumes and Nebular Shocks Form Chondritic Mixtures

The origin of chondrules and the chondritic sedimentary rocks that dominate the meteoritic record is a long-standing problem in planetary science. Here, we develop a physical model for the formation of chondritic mixtures as an outcome of vaporizing collisions between planetesimals that were dynamically excited by the growth and migration of planets. We present calculations of nebular shock waves generated by impact vapor plumes and focus on aspects of the plume interaction with the nebular gas and dust that have been neglected in previous studies of impact ejecta. We find that when water dominates the vapor, the plumes are relatively cool. However, the plume expansion is supersonic and can drive strong shock waves in the dusty nebular gas. Portions of these nebular shock fronts initially melt nebular dust, forming chondrules that are coupled to the moving front. As the shock front expands and cools, the chondrules solidify, while the shock front entrains additional dust. Eventually, the plume expansion stalls and then hydrodynamically collapses, turbulently mixing variably processed dust and size-sorted chondrules. For probable impact parameters and nebular conditions during giant planet growth and migration, the impact-generated mixtures have characteristics that span the range observed in chondritic meteorites, providing an environment for rapid formation of chondritic assemblages after chondrule formation. Our impact vapor and nebular shocks model, named the IVANS model, links chondrule formation to the overall context of planet formation and provides a framework for interpreting the detailed chronological and geochemical record contained in chondritic meteorites.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

CMIP7 data request: impacts and adaptation priorities and opportunities

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) undertook an extensive process to gather community input and refine data requests related to impacts and adaptation applications of Earth System Model (ESM) outputs. The Impacts and Adaptation (I&A) Data Request Team worked with CMIP7 leadership to distribute an open solicitation across many communities that use climate model outputs requesting inputs for new and existing variables, the most applicable temporal characteristics, and groupings of variables that together allow for specific application opportunities. This input was then collated and translated into CMIP7 standard templates for inclusion in the broader data request, leading to 13 I&A data request opportunities, 60 variable groups and 539 unique variables sought by vulnerability, impacts, adaptation, and climate services user communities. Here, we describe these opportunities and variable groups, as well as new insights into how ESM groups can prioritize outputs that set off a chain of further analyses, ultimately informing decisions impacting society and natural systems. These include an emphasis on high-resolution outputs to allow further modeling of climate impacts at regional and local scales, improved representation of extreme weather events, enhanced accuracy of downscaling and bias-adjustment techniques, and support for more detailed assessments for decision-making in adaptation and mitigation strategies. There is also broad interest in more extensive provisioning of two-dimensional variables at the Earth's surface, prioritizing experiments that enhance our understanding of both the recent past and future scenarios, and providing outputs that allow further downscaling and bias adjustment. We emphasize that variable groups are the fundamental level at which to engage with the I&A data request, matching the scale of input and the way output provision enables specific I&A applications. Given resource constraints, we applaud CMIP7 efforts to foster strong engagement and communication between ESM groups and the I&A team to build consensus around prudent compromises in priority variables, temporal resolutions, simulation experiments, time subsets, and ensemble members.

Ruane, Alex C. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studi↗

DOE OSTI2024

Economic and Jobs Impacts of Point-Source Carbon Capture in Cement Industry – Case Study

The cement industry accounts for an estimated 8% of global CO2 emissions, which surpasses that of the entire aviation sector. In contrast with other industries, where CO2 emissions can be drastically reduced via electrification or fuels substitution, cement production releases CO2 as part of its process, during the calcination of carbonates to yield oxides. Thus, point-source carbon capture has become a key technology in the cement industry’s decarbonization. Apart from the expected environmental benefits, point-source carbon capture in the cement industry can yield important economic benefits and create jobs. The objective of this study was to perform a preliminary assessment of the economic and workforce impacts associated with the construction and operation of a point-source carbon capture retrofit of an existing cement production facility, using as a basis the data from a front-end engineering design (FEED) study to install a 3.9 million metric tons per year (Mtpy) CO2 capture facility at Holcim Ste Genevieve cement plant in Missouri, United States of America. The advanced carbon capture technology used in this FEED study was Air Liquide’s Cryocap™ FG carbon capture technology. The study evaluated the direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts of the construction, operation, and maintenance activities of the project over its lifespan. It also covered how the project will generate new jobs, their nature, and quantity, along with strategies to prepare the workforce. To perform this study, construction, operation, and maintenance cost estimates, as well as construction and operation staffing plans from the FEED study were input into IMPLAN version 7.5 software, licensed by IMPLAN Group LLC (Huntersville, VC), to predict the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts of the project using industry multipliers from the software. Additionally, recruitment strategies were developed for hiring individuals who belong to groups that are historically underserved or underrepresented, as well as anticipated recruitment of workers from the local community (whether training will be required or if the skills are associated with an existing labor force). The analysis estimated that the construction and operation of the carbon capture at Holcim Ste. Genevive will result in over 24 thousand work-years of job opportunities, close to USD 10 billion of economic impacts, including over USD 460 million of tax revenue. These results encompass the direct, indirect, and induced effects. A strategy to maximize hiring from the project and neighboring counties was developed, leveraging training agreements with local trade groups and universities. The result of this study can be used for a strategic preliminary assessment of the potential regional economic and job impacts of retrofitting existing cement plants with point source carbon systems, and its methodology can be replicated to individual projects to aid in planning and workforce development.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

What's on the menu? Examining native apex‐ and invasive meso‐predator diets to understand impacts on ecosystems

Abstract Understanding how carnivores impact ecological communities is essential for guiding effective management actions and conserving biodiversity. Quantifying predators' diets, including prey selectivity, allows for the assessment of the relative effects native and invasive predators may have on prey populations. In Australia, populations of a native, terrestrial apex predator, the dingo Canis dingo/C. familiaris , and introduced and invasive subordinate mesopredators, the European red fox Vulpes vulpes and feral cat Felis catus , co‐occur, but there is limited understanding of their relative impacts on native and invasive prey in different ecosystems. To assess the possible effects of dingoes, foxes and cats on prey, we examined their diet and prey selectivity across a ~10,000 km 2 semi‐arid mallee ecosystem. Using macroscopic scat analysis, we identified strong dietary niche separation. Larger‐bodied dingoes primarily consumed large marsupial herbivores, whereas foxes and cats primarily consumed smaller prey, including introduced and native rodents and birds. Foxes had the broadest diet, and the greatest dietary overlap with cats ( = 0.81), compared with dingoes ( = 0.50) or between dingoes and cats ( = 0.36). Livestock were identified in 2% of dingo and 7% of fox scats. Cats and foxes consumed more than 15 times the volume of small native mammals compared with dingoes, including threatened species such as fat‐tailed dunnarts Sminthopsis crassicaudata . Cats and foxes also selectively consumed small mammals relative to their estimated availability and consumed fewer large mammals. In contrast, dingoes consumed fewer birds and more echidnas relative to their availability. Our results suggest limited intraguild competition within this semi‐arid ecosystem, as dingoes are primarily exerting top‐down pressure on large herbivores, whereas invasive mesopredators are disproportionately impacting smaller prey, including threatened native mammals. Practical implication . Our findings suggest that ongoing conservation management of dingoes, red foxes and feral cats must consider the variation in diets, impacts on prey and ecological roles of these different predator species, and avoid indiscriminate lethal control methods. Quantifying actual, rather than assumed, impacts of predators on threatened native species, large herbivores and livestock is essential to achieve effective and integrated ecosystem management.

Mason, Rachel T. [School of Life and Environmental↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Fresh Take: Seasonal Changes in Terrestrial Freshwater Inputs Impact Salt Marsh Hydrology and Vegetation Dynamics

Abstract Salt marshes exist at the terrestrial-marine interface, providing important ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling and carbon sequestration. Tidal inputs play a dominant role in salt marsh porewater mixing, and terrestrially derived freshwater inputs are increasingly recognized as important sources of water and solutes to intertidal wetlands. However, there remains a critical gap in understanding the role of freshwater inputs on salt marsh hydrology, and how this may impact marsh subsurface salinity and plant productivity. Here, we address this knowledge gap by examining the hydrologic behavior, porewater salinity, and pickleweed ( Sarcocornia pacifica also known as Salicornia pacifica) plant productivity along a salt marsh transect in an estuary along the central coast of California. Through the installation of a suite of hydrometric sensors and routine porewater sampling and vegetation surveys, we sought to understand how seasonal changes in terrestrial freshwater inputs impact salt marsh ecohydrologic processes. We found that salt marsh porewater salinity, shallow subsurface saturation, and pickleweed productivity are closely coupled with elevated upland water level during the winter and spring, and more influenced by tidal inputs during the summer and fall. This seasonal response indicates a switch in salt marsh hydrologic connectivity with the terrestrial upland that impacts ecosystem functioning. Through elucidating the interannual impacts of drought on salt marsh hydrology, we found that the severity of drought and historical precipitation can impact contemporary hydrologic behavior and the duration and timing of the upland-marsh hydrologic connectivity. This implies that the sensitivity of salt marshes to climate change involves a complex interaction between sea level rise and freshwater inputs that vary at seasonal to interannual timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

X-ray observation of individual Ti-6Al-4V spherical powder particle impact in an in-situ operando laser directed energy deposition system

Understanding the particle capture mechanism in the laser directed energy deposition additive manufacturing process provides a foundation for improving productivity and reducing material loss. Capturing this phenomenon is challenging due to its highly transient time interval. To analyze the impact behavior of spherical Ti-6Al-4V powder, a custom laser directed energy deposition system was designed to control the deposition of individual particles. Synchrotron X-ray imaging at 24 kHz monitored the impact dynamics of individual powder particles. A multi-physics model based on the Smoothed-Particle Hydrodynamics scheme supported the analysis by providing the temperature and velocity fields of the molten pool. Results revealed that in laser directed energy deposition, surface tension forces dominated the powder–molten pool interaction. Hydrophobic Ti-6Al-4V powder particles had an equilibrium contact angle of 121 degrees with their molten state. Furthermore, Ti-6Al-4V powder particles required a high impact velocity (6 to 12 m/s) to transition from oscillation to submergence behavior. Lastly, oscillating powder particles that impacted near the location of the laser beam exhibited faster melting, highlighting the contribution of the laser beam to the melting mechanism. This work lays the foundation for investigations of powder particle impact in laser directed deposition and supports the validation of numerical models of powder–molten pool interactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of HVAC & refrigeration system fault behaviors and impacts: A systematic review

Achieving the goals of green buildings critically depends on the fault-free operation of heating, ventilation and air conditioning and refrigeration (HVAC&R) systems. However, faults frequently occur in these systems, causing a range of negative consequences, including increased energy consumption, diminished operational performance, compromised indoor environmental quality, higher operational costs, and shortened system lifespan. The evaluation of fault behaviors and impacts plays a critical role in revealing fault characteristics and consequently supports many research areas, including the design of the high-performance equipment, development of fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) and robust control approaches, as well as the enhancement of maintenance decision-making activities. This paper systematically reviews 112 research publications that reported the analysis and evaluation of fault behaviors and impacts in HVAC&R systems over the past thirty years. Here, we designed a review approach to address five crucial research questions, namely: 1) the objectives of analysis and evaluation of fault behaviors and impacts, 2) data sources, 3) equipment/system types and fault types, 4) evaluation methods including evaluation measures and associated metrics, and 5) challenges and future directions in the research on evaluating of fault behaviors and impacts. In-depth discussions on these questions help bridge the gap between the evaluation of fault behaviors and impacts and their practical applications, such as the development of high-performance systems, fault models, FDD methods, and maintenance decision-making tools within the HVAC&R FDD domain.

Chen, Yimin [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying and Modeling the Impact of Phase State on the Ice Nucleation Abilities of 2-Methyltetrols as a Key Component of Secondary Organic Aerosol Derived from Isoprene Epoxydiols

Organic aerosols (OAs) may serve as ice-nucleating particles (INPs), impacting the formation and properties of cirrus clouds when their phase state and viscosity are in the semisolid to glassy range. However, there is a lack of direct parameterization between aerosol viscosity and their ice nucleation capabilities. In this study, we experimentally measured the ice nucleation rate of 2-methyltetrols (2-MT) aerosols, a key component of isoprene-epoxydiol-derived secondary organic aerosols (IEPOX-SOA), at different viscosities. These results demonstrate that the phase state has a significant impact on the ice nucleation abilities of OA under typical cirrus cloud conditions, with the ice nucleation rate increasing by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude when the phase state changes from liquid to semisolid. An innovative parametric model based on classical nucleation theory was developed to directly quantify the impact of viscosity on the heterogeneous nucleation rate. This model accurately represents our laboratory measurement and can be implemented into climate models due to its simple, equation-based form. Based on data collected from the ACRIDICON-CHUVA field campaign, our model predicts that the INP concentration from IEPOX-SOA can reach the magnitude of 1 to tens per liter in the cirrus cloud region impacted by the Amazon rainforest, consistent with recent field observations and estimations. This novel parameterization framework can also be applied in regional and global climate models to further improve representations of cirrus cloud formation and associated climate impacts.

2-methyltetrol↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the impact of alpha particles on thermal confinement in JET D-T plasmas through global GENE-Tango simulations

The capability of the global, electromagnetic gyrokinetic GENE code interfaced with the transport Tango solver is exploited to address the impact of fusion alpha particles (in their dual role of fast particles and heating source) on plasma profiles and performance at JET in the discharges with the highest quasi-stationary peak fusion power during the DTE2 experimental campaigns. Employing radially global nonlinear electromagnetic GENE-Tango simulations, we compare results with/without alpha particles and alpha heating. Our findings reveal that alpha particles have a negligible impact on turbulent transport, with GENE-Tango converging to similar plasma profiles regardless of their inclusion as a kinetic species in GENE. On the other hand, alpha heating is found to contribute to the peaking of the electron temperature profiles, leading to a 1 keV drop on the on-axis electron temperature when alpha heating is neglected in Tango. The minimal impact of alpha particles on turbulent transport in this JET discharge–despite this being the shot with the highest fusion output–is attributed to the low content of fusion alpha in this discharge. To assess the potential impact of alpha particles on turbulent transport in regimes with higher alpha particle density, as expected in ITER and fusion reactors, we artificially increased the alpha particle concentration to levels expected for ITER. By performing global nonlinear GENE standalone simulations, we found that increasing the alpha particle density beyond five times the nominal value lead to significant overall turbulence destabilization. These results demonstrate that an increased alpha particle concentration can significantly impact transport properties under simulated JET experimental conditions. However, these findings cannot be directly extrapolated to ITER due to the substantial differences in parameters such as plasma size, magnetic field, plasma current, and thermal pressure.

energetic particles↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the multisectoral impacts of future global hydrologic variability

There is significant uncertainty in how global water supply will evolve in the future, due to uncertain climate, socioeconomic, and land use change drivers and variability of hydrologic processes. It is critical to characterize the potential impacts of uncertainty in future water supply given its importance for food and energy production. In this work, we introduce a framework that integrates stochastic hydrology and human-environmental systems to characterize uncertainty in future water supply and its multisector impacts. We develop a global stochastic watershed model and demonstrate that this model can generate a large ensemble of realizations of basin-scale runoff with global coverage that preserves the mean, variance, and spatial correlation of a historical benchmark. We couple this model with a well-known human-environmental systems model to explore the impacts of runoff variability on the water and agricultural sectors across spatial scales. We find that the impacts of future hydrologic variability vary across sectors and regions. Impacts are felt most strongly in the water and agricultural sectors for basins that are expected to have unsustainable water use in the future, such as the Indus River basin. For this basin, we find that the variability in future irrigation water withdrawals and irrigated cropland increase over time due to uncertainty in renewable water supply. We also use the Indus basin to show how our stochastic ensemble can be leveraged to explore the global multisector consequences of local extreme runoff conditions. This work introduces a novel technique to explore the propagation of future hydrologic variability across human and natural systems and spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models

Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100. Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (-3.36 Mha yr-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from -15 to +10.6 TgC yr-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO2-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways. Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.

Rouhette, Theo↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Historical Extreme Weather Event Impacts

Resilience planning, particularly energy and water resilience planning, has been a key priority for the federal government for many years, leading federal agencies to develop processes for identifying and addressing critical resilience gaps at their facilities and sites. Furthermore, recent federal policy is driving agencies to prioritize climate change impacts as a more central component of their resilience planning efforts. To achieve this, federal sites must understand their vulnerability to climate change, which involves identifying climate hazards projected to impact the site (known as exposure), as well as understanding the sensitivity (the degree to which a site, including its people and the things they value, could be harmed by that exposure), and adaptive capacity of the site (the degree to which the site could lessen bathe potential for harm by taking action to reduce exposure and sensitivity). To assess and understand sensitivity and adaptive capacity, it is important to first obtain a baseline and understand how a site has been impacted by past events, in addition to considering the potential for unprecedented impacts based on climate projections. This information paper highlights current limitations for developing event history assessments and suggests a framework for more consistently capturing key data points. The purpose of this paper is to help inform how organizations could begin structuring a comprehensive process for recording the impacts of extreme weather events in order to facilitate climate vulnerability assessments, and thus, resilience planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Impacts of Multidimensional Progenitor Perturbations on Core-collapse Supernova Explosions

Numerical studies of core-collapse supernovae have demonstrated the importance of nonradial motions in precollapse progenitors on the explosion outcome. We use the Chimera neutrino radiation hydrodynamics code running seven two-dimensional simulations of 15 M⊙ progenitors with different progenitor structures introduced by different one- and two-dimensional precollapse stellar evolution environments to examine the impacts of stellar structure and nonspherical motion in the precollapse progenitor on the development of explosions. We compare the explosion evolution of these models in terms of shock dynamics, diagnostic energy, neutrino heating, accretion, explosion geometry, nuclear abundances, and turbulent convection. We also analyze how stochastic variation impacts our simulations. Contrary to results reported in prior studies examining the impacts of multidimensional progenitors, we observe similar shock revival times and explosion development in our simulations despite differences in initial compositions and structures. We find no discernible impact from the accretion of nonradial perturbations from a multi-D progenitor onto the stalled shock in the revival and strength of explosion, as fully developed neutrino-driven convection behind the stalled shock is similar for all our models. For models with physically sourced noise in the iron core, a strong oscillation of the shock occurs after bounce and deflects infall laterally, and accelerates the saturation of the lateral turbulent kinetic energy. An examination of model stochasticity shows that any prior expected impacts on explosive outcome due to convection-related perturbations lie below the detectable threshold of numerical variation.

Chen, Chien-Hui [North Carolina State University]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha′apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison (HTHH-MOC) project: experiment protocol and model descriptions

The 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption injected a significant amount of water vapor and a moderate amount of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, causing observable responses in the climate system. We have developed a model–observation comparison project to investigate the evolution of volcanic water and aerosols and their impacts on atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, and climate, using several state-of-the-art chemistry climate models. The project goals are (1) to evaluate the current chemistry–climate models to quantify their performance in comparison to observations and (2) to understand atmospheric responses in the Earth system after this exceptional event and investigate the potential impacts in the projected future. To achieve these goals, we designed specific experiments for direct comparisons to observations, for example from balloons and the Microwave Limb Sounder satellite instrument. Experiment 1 consists of two sets of free-running ensemble experiments from 2022 to 2031: one with fixed sea-surface temperatures and sea ice and one with coupled ocean. These experiments will help to understand the long-term evolution of water vapor and aerosols; quantify HTHH effects on stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures, dynamics, and transport; understand the impact of dynamic changes on ozone chemistry; quantify the net radiative forcings; and evaluate any surface climate impact. Experiment 2 is a nudged-run experiment from 2022 to 2023 using observed meteorology. To allow participation of more climate models with varying complexities of aerosol simulation, we include two sets of simulations in Experiment 2: Experiment 2a is designed for models with internally generated aerosol, while Experiment 2b is designed for models using prescribed aerosol surface area density. This experiment will help to analyze H 2 O and aerosol evolution, quantify the net radiative forcings, understand the impacts on mid-latitude and polar O 3 chemistry, and allow close comparisons with observations.

Zhu, Yunqian [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (Unit↗