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At least 73 records · Page 4

Impacts of Assimilating Infrared Sounders from Geostationary Orbit

A set of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) was used to assess the impact of assimilating hyperspectral infrared (IR) radiances from geostationary platforms. This was done in preparation for the proposed National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) Sounder (GXS), expected to launch in the 2030s, using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) OSSE framework. From a numerical weather prediction (NWP) perspective, a global “ring” of geostationary IR sounders was found to improve both the analysis and forecasts and provide beneficial impacts as measured by the forecast sensitivity observation impact (FSOI) metric.

Geostationary orbit

Classifying Multi-Model Wheat Yield Impact Response Surfaces Showing Sensitivity to Temperature and Precipitation Change

Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (minus 2 to plus 9 degrees Centigrade) and precipitation (minus 50 to plus 50 percent). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses. The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern. The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description. Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index. Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.

Classification; Climate change; Crop model; Ensemb

Baryon number violation: from nuclear matrix elements to BSM physics

Processes that violate baryon number, most notably proton decay and $n\bar{n}$ transitions, are promising probes of physics beyond the Standard Model (BSM) needed to understand the lack of antimatter in the Universe. To interpret current and forthcoming experimental limits, theory input from nuclear matrix elements to UV complete models enters. Thus, an interplay of experiment, effective field theory, lattice QCD, and BSM model building is required to develop strategies to accurately extract information from current and future data and maximize the impact and sensitivity of next-generation experiments. Here, we briefly summarize the main results and discussions from the workshop ‘INT-25-91W: Baryon Number Violation: From Nuclear Matrix Elements to BSM Physics,’ held at the Institute for Nuclear Theory, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 13–17 January 2025.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS

The Impact of Lidar Detection Sensitivity on Assessing Aerosol Direct Radiative Effects

Spaceborne lidar observations have great potential to provide accurate global estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) in both clear and cloudy conditions. However, comparisons between observations from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite (CALIPSO) and multiple years of Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program’s ground-based Raman lidars (RL) show that CALIPSO does not detect all radiatively significant aerosol, i.e. aerosol that directly modifies the Earth’s radiation budget. We estimated that using CALIPSO observations results in an underestimate of the magnitude of the global mean aerosol DRE by up to 54%. The ARM RL datasets along with NASA Langley airborne high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL) data from multiple field campaigns are used to compute the detection sensitivity required to accurately resolve the aerosol DRE. This shows that a lidar with a backscatter coefficient detection sensitivity of about 1−2x10(exp -4)km(exp -1)sr(exp -1) at 532nm would resolve all the aerosol needed to derive the DRE to within 1%.

Tyler J. Thorsen

Multi-objective automatic discovery of optimized metamaterials for varying velocity impact protection

Mechanical metamaterials have demonstrated exceptional impact performance while remaining lightweight. Impact resistance has traditionally been investigated using quasi-static simulations, often with the assumption that performance will translate to high-velocity impact scenarios. However, critical crash protection parameters—such as peak stress and absorbed energy—are highly sensitive to impact velocity, leading to inconsistent performance under dynamic loading. To address this, we introduce a strain-rate-aware, active deep learning framework that enables multi-objective optimization of impact protection metrics across a wide range of impact velocities. Our framework captures the strain-rate sensitivity of architected lattices by learning to control spatial gradation in cellular metamaterials, resulting in over 200 % enhancement in impact protection relative to state-of-the-art designs such as Voronoi and re-entrant lattices. We demonstrate its practical utility by designing next-generation lattice structures for automotive bumper systems that satisfy multiple, velocity-specific safety criteria—capabilities beyond those of conventional designs. More than just a predictive tool, this framework marks the first step towards enabling adaptable impact-resistant structures across dynamic regimes.

Deep learning

Effect of impact damage on the compression strength of filamentary-composite hat-stiffened panels

An experimental investigation was conducted to evaluate the effect of low-velocity impact damage on the compression strength of filamentary-composite hat-stiffened panels. Twenty-four specimens of three design configurations fabricated from graphite-epoxy and boron-epoxy materials were tested. All three design configurations met the design buckling requirements in the undamaged condition. The impact damage was caused by firing aluminum spheres at the panels to simulate impact on aircraft from runway stones. Panels were damaged by impact in the hat cap or in the skin beneath the hat cap (regions of high axial stiffness) and in the skin between stiffeners (region of low axial stiffness). The panels were relatively insensitive to impact damage in the regions of low axial stiffness but were very sensitive to impact damage in the regions of high axial stiffness. Test results suggest that impact damage may be more dependent on the matrix properties than on the fiber properties of the composite materials considered.

Rhodes, M. D.

Impact Forces From Artificial and Real Birds on a Large Diameter Hopkinson Bar

Forces were measured from normal impacts with two different artificial bird recipes and two species of real birds on a very rigid flat surface. The tests were conducted by launching the soft body projectiles axially into a Hopkinson bar in accordance with the SAE AS6940 test standard at three different nominal impact conditions: (a) a 1 kg projectile at an impact velocity of 49 m/sec; (b) a 1.8 kg projectile at an impact velocity of 110 m/sec; and (c) a 1.8 kg projectile at an impact velocity of 310 m/sec. At each condition two artificial birds and one real bird projectile were tested with at least three test repeats. Simulations were conducted to assess the effects of projectile orientation and velocity on predicted forces. The Hopkinson bar consisted of an Aluminum 6061 solid cylindrical bar with a diameter of 305 mm and a length of 7.31 m, made up of two 3.66 m long sections that were in axial contact with each other. The bar was instrumented for strain measurement at two locations, 457.2 mm and 609.6 mm (1.5 and 2 diameters) from the impacted face. Forces were calculated from the measured strain. In addition, digital image correlation (DIC) was used to measure the velocity of the free end of the bar. The real bird projectiles were 1 kg Mallard ducks and 1.8 kg Golden Comet chickens that were prepared per ASTM F330-21. Prior to testing, the real birds were placed in muslin bags to minimize tumbling during flight. Two artificial bird formulations were tested, one produced by the University of Dayton Research Institute (UDRI) and the other by the German Aerospace Center, DLR. The UDRI projectile was a homogeneous, relatively soft solid, formulated with a mixture of water, gelatin and phenolic micro-balloons to achieve a nominal density of 0.95 g/cc. The DLR projectile consisted of a printed plastic shell with internal plastic ribs and filled with a gel material. The projectiles were designed such that the overall average density was the desired value of 0.95 g/cc. Initial testing showed that contact between the two Hopkinson bar segments was not sufficient to allow full transmission of the waves through the interface. For the 49 m/sec and 110 m/sec tests this resulted in reflections returning to the strain measurement site prior to the end of the impact. For these tests only a portion of the force pulse could be accurately measured. For the highest velocity tests at 310 m/sec the force pulse was complete by the time reflected waves interfered with the response. Despite this limitation, useful force data were obtained for all velocities. Impact forces were very sensitive to the impact orientation and velocity. The force history generally consisted of an initial region with varying amplitude followed by a relatively constant amplitude response. The steady state region was similar among all projectiles and similar to what would be predicted for an inviscid fluid with a density of 0.95 g/cc. The initial part of the force response exhibited varying degrees of test-to-test repeatability associated with each projectile type. Forces calculated from DIC velocity measurements of the free end of the bar compared favorably those from the strain measurements. In general, the artificial projectile impact forces were quite repeatable from test to test, with some exceptions which could be explained by issues associated with either the projectile itself or with how the projectile exited the gun barrel. For all impact velocities the initial portion of the impact force from the bird projectiles exhibited large test-to-test variability. In this paper, impact forces for three types of projectiles at three impact velocities will be presented with an emphasis on the test-to-test repeatability of the results. Based on test and simulation results a proposed method for normalizing the impact force to minimize effects of differences in projectile orientation, impact velocity and density will also be discussed.

Bird strike

Observing System Simulation Experiments Exploring Potential Spaceborne Deployment Options for a Differential Absorption Radar Measuring Marine Surface Pressures

A new technology for remote measurements of marine surface pressure has been proposed, employing a V-band differential absorption radar and a radiometric temperature sounder to calculate the total column atmospheric mass. Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are performed to evaluate the potential impact of Spaceborne Marine Surface Pressure (SMSP) on Numerical Weather Prediction. These experiments build on prior efforts (Privé, McLinden, et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.3254), but with an updated version of the OSSE framework and with more sophisticated simulation of the SMSP observations and a longer experiment period. Several different instrument configurations are compared, including both scanning and non-scanning orbits. SMSP impacts are calculated for analysis quality and forecast skill, and a forecast sensitivity observation impact tool is employed to place SMSP observations in context with the global observing network. The effects of rain contamination on observation quality are explored. Different magnitudes of simulated SMSP observation error are tested in the context of data assimilation to show the range of potential behaviors. Overall, SMSP observations are found to be most beneficial in the southern hemisphere extratropics, with statistically significant forecast improvements for the first 72 hr of the forecast. A constellation of four non-scanning SMSP satellites is found to outperform a single scanning instrument with a 250 km wide swath.

N C Prive

Inclusion of Linearized Moist Physics in Nasa's Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation Tools

Inclusion of moist physics in the linearized version of a weather forecast model is beneficial in terms of variational data assimilation. Further, it improves the capability of important tools, such as adjoint-based observation impacts and sensitivity studies. A linearized version of the relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) convection scheme has been developed and tested in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation tools. A previous study of the RAS scheme showed it to exhibit reasonable linearity and stability. This motivates the development of a linearization of a near-exact version of the RAS scheme. Linearized large-scale condensation is included through simple conversion of supersaturation into precipitation. The linearization of moist physics is validated against the full nonlinear model for 6- and 24-h intervals, relevant to variational data assimilation and observation impacts, respectively. For a small number of profiles, sudden large growth in the perturbation trajectory is encountered. Efficient filtering of these profiles is achieved by diagnosis of steep gradients in a reduced version of the operator of the tangent linear model. With filtering turned on, the inclusion of linearized moist physics increases the correlation between the nonlinear perturbation trajectory and the linear approximation of the perturbation trajectory. A month-long observation impact experiment is performed and the effect of including moist physics on the impacts is discussed. Impacts from moist-sensitive instruments and channels are increased. The effect of including moist physics is examined for adjoint sensitivity studies. A case study examining an intensifying Northern Hemisphere Atlantic storm is presented. The results show a significant sensitivity with respect to moisture.

Convection

The ASSIST trial: Acute effects of manipulating strength exercise volume on insulin sensitivity in obese adults: A protocol for a randomized controlled, crossover, clinical trial

Type 2 diabetes mellitus is a disease in which insulin action is impaired, and an acute bout of strength exercise can improve insulin sensitivity. Current guidelines for strength exercise prescription suggest that 8 to 30 sets could be performed, although it is not known how variations in exercise volume impact insulin sensitivity. Additionally, this means an almost 4-fold difference in time commitment, which might directly impact an individual’s motivation and perceived capacity to exercise. This study will assess the acute effects of high- and low-volume strength exercise sessions on insulin sensitivity. After being thoroughly familiarized, 14 obese individuals of both sexes (>40 year old) will undergo 3 random experimental sessions, with a minimum 4-day washout period between them: a high-volume session (7 exercises, 3 sets per exercise, 21 total sets); a low-volume session (7 exercises, 1 set per exercise, 7 total sets); and a control session, where no exercise will be performed. Psychological assessments (feeling, enjoyment, and self-efficacy) will be performed after the sessions. All sessions will be held at night, and the next morning, an oral glucose tolerance test will be performed in a local laboratory, from which indexes of insulin sensitivity will be derived. We believe this study will aid in strength exercise prescription for individuals who claim not to have time to exercise or who perceive high-volume strength exercise intimidating to adhere to. This trial was prospectively registered.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES

Global NWP Impacts of Infrared Sounders from Geostationary Orbit

The Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) program, expected to launch in the 2030s, includes a proposed infrared (IR) sounder that would provide persistent atmospheric profile observations over much of the western hemisphere. In preparation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework was used to assess the impact of such an instrument on global numerical weather prediction (NWP) as part of a global “ring” of such instruments. Building on previous preliminary studies, an evaluation of the impact of geostationary IR sounders will be presented with foci on the analysis, forecasts, and the forecast sensitivity observation impact (FSOI) metric, including an examination of the consequences for tropical cyclone representation. Overall, assimilation of geostationary IR provide a beneficial impact for NWP applications.

Erica L. Mcgrath-spangler

Potential Use of Spaceborne Differential Absorption Radar Measurements of Marine Surface Pressure to Improve Weather and Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Differential absorption radar (DAR) has been identified as a method to remotely sense surface air pressure, particularly over the marine surface. Such an instrument would provide an estimate of the total atmospheric column oxygen content from which the surface air pressure can be calculated. NASA recently funded the development of a demonstrator instrument, the airborne Microwave Barometric Radar and Sounder (MBARS) to test and evaluate this retrieval. The potential impact of surface pressure observations from a spaceborne sensor is evaluated using the updated NASA/GMAO global Observing System Simulation Experiment framework. Initial experiments showing the impact of different orbital configurations of DAR surface pressure measurements on overall NWP will be shown, including Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impact metrics. Case studies of satellite-based surface air pressure retrievals on tropical cyclones will also be discussed.

DAR

Assessing the Impact of Observations in a Multi-Year Reanalysis

Operational and quasi-operational weather prediction centers have been routinely assessing the contribution from various observing systems to reducing errors in short-range forecasts for a number of years now. The original technique, Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impact (FSOI), involves definition of a forecast error measure and evaluation of sensitivities with respect to changes in the observing system that require adjoint operators of both the underlying tangent linear model and corresponding analysis technique. The present work applies FSOI to Reanalysis and aims at providing an expanded view of the contribution of various observing systems over nearly 40 years of assimilation. Specifically, this study uses MERRA-2 given that its supporting software includes all ingredients necessary to calculate FSOI. Part of this work shows how the quality of forecasts improves over the course of the reanalysis, and examines forecast sensitivities relevant to FSOI. The assessment here finds, for example, that: conventional observations are a major player in reducing forecast error throughout the 40 years of reanalysis, even when their volume reduces from 45% in the earlier periods to about 5% in the modern era; satellite radiances, especially microwave instruments are major contributors to error reduction from the early single platform TIROS-N days to the current multi-platform scenario; infrared instruments play a secondary role to microwave but are significant still, with the peculiar result of fractional impacts contribution from modern hyperspectral instruments being roughly similar to those from early infrared instruments. The dependence of results on the chosen error measure is emphasized throughout.

Fabio L R Diniz

Observing System Simulation Experiments to Determine the Impact of Spaceborne Differential Absorption Radar Measurements of Marine Surface Pressure on Numerical Weather Prediction

Surface air pressures over marine regions can potentially be measured by estimating the total atmospheric column oxygen content with differential absorption radar (DAR). A demonstration instrument, the Microwave Barometric Radar and Sounder (MBARS) has been funded by NASA for airborne missions in 2024 to show proof of concept. In this presentation, the potential use of such marine surface pressure observations from a spaceborne DAR platform to improve numerical weather prediction is examined using the NASA/GMAO global Observing System Simulation Experiment. Several aspects of the instrument are explored, including contamination by heavy precipitation and the expected error characteristics of the observations. Different orbit and scan configurations are compared, including various constellations of nadir smallsats and A-Train-type scanning configurations. The impacts of marine surface pressure observations are put into context with the current global observing network with a Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impact tool.

Nikki Privé

Postbuckling behavior of selected flat stiffened graphite-epoxy panels loaded in compression

Results of an experimental study of the postbuckling behavior of selected flat stiffened graphite-epoxy panels loaded in compression are presented. The postbuckling response and failure characteristics of undamaged panels and panels damaged by low-speed impact are described. Each panel had four equally-spaced I-spaced stiffeners and 16- or 24-ply quasi-isotropic skins. Panels with three different stiffener spacings were tested. Some undamaged specimens supported as much as three times their initial buckling load before failing. Failure of all panels initiated in a skin-stiffener interface region. Analytical results obtained from a nonlinear general shell finite element analysis computer code correlate well with typical postbuckling test results up to failure. The analytical modeling detail necessary to predict accurately the response of a panel is described. Test results show that low-speed impact damage can reduce the postbuckling strength of a stiffened panel and that the skin-stiffener interface region is more sensitive to impact damage than the skin midway between stiffeners.

Starnes, J. H., Jr.