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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The Effect of the Prior and the Experimental Design on the Inference of the Precision Matrix in Gaussian Chain Graph Models

Here, we investigate whether (and how) experimental design could aid in the estimation of the precision matrix in a Gaussian chain graph model, especially the interplay between the design, the effect of the experiment and prior knowledge about the effect. Estimation of the precision matrix is a fundamental task to infer biological graphical structures like microbial networks. We compare the marginal posterior precision of the precision matrix under four priors: flat, conjugate Normal-Wishart, Normal-MGIG and a general independent. Under the flat and conjugate priors, the Laplace-approximated posterior precision is not a function of the design matrix rendering useless any efforts to find an optimal experimental design to infer the precision matrix. In contrast, the Normal-MGIG and general independent priors do allow for the search of optimal experimental designs, yet there is a sharp upper bound on the information that can be extracted from a given experiment. We confirm our theoretical findings via a simulation study comparing (i) the KL divergence between prior and posterior and (ii) the Stein’s loss difference of MAPs between random and no experiment. Our findings provide practical advice for domain scientists conducting experiments to better infer the precision matrix as a representation of a biological network.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

PINN surrogate of Li-ion battery models for parameter inference, Part II: Regularization and application of the pseudo-2D model

Bayesian parameter inference is useful to improve Li-ion battery diagnostics and can help formulate battery aging models. However, it is computationally intensive and cannot be easily repeated for multiple cycles, multiple operating conditions, or multiple replicate cells. To reduce the computational cost of Bayesian calibration, numerical solvers for physics-based models can be replaced with faster surrogates. A physics-informed neural network (PINN) is developed as a surrogate for the pseudo-2D (P2D) battery model calibration. For the P2D surrogate, additional training regularization was needed as compared to the PINN single-particle model (SPM) developed in Part I. Both the PINN SPM and P2D surrogate models are exercised for parameter inference and compared to data obtained from a direct numerical solution of the governing equations. A parameter inference study highlights the ability to use these PINNs to calibrate scaling parameters for the cathode Li diffusion and the anode exchange current density. By realizing computational speed-ups of ~2250x for the P2D model, as compared to using standard integrating methods, the PINN surrogates enable rapid state-of-health diagnostics. Finally, in the low-data availability scenario, the testing error was estimated to ~2 mV for the SPM surrogate and ~10 mV for the P2D surrogate which could be mitigated with additional data.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Terrestrial photosynthesis inferred from plant carbonyl sulfide uptake

Terrestrial photosynthesis, or gross primary production (GPP), is the largest carbon flux in the biosphere, but its global magnitude and spatiotemporal dynamics remain uncertain. The global annual mean GPP is historically thought to be around 120 PgC yr −1 , which is about 30–50 PgC yr −1 lower than GPP inferred from the oxygen-18 ( 18 O) isotope and soil respiration. This disparity is a source of uncertainty in predicting climate–carbon cycle feedbacks. Here, in this study, we infer GPP from carbonyl sulfide, an innovative tracer for CO 2 diffusion from ambient air to leaf chloroplasts through stomata and mesophyll layers. We demonstrate that explicitly representing mesophyll diffusion is important for accurately quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbonyl sulfide uptake by plants. From the estimate of carbonyl sulfide uptake by plants, we infer a global contemporary GPP of 157 (±8.5) PgC yr −1 , which is consistent with estimates from 18 O (150–175 PgC yr −1 ) and soil respiration ($149^{+29}_{-23}$) PgC yr −1 ), but with an improved confidence level. Our global GPP is higher than satellite optical observation-driven estimates (120–140 PgC yr –1 ) that are used for Earth system model benchmarking. This difference predominantly occurs in the pan-tropical rainforests and is corroborated by ground measurements, suggesting a more productive tropics than satellite-based GPP products indicated. As GPP is a primary determinant of terrestrial carbon sinks and may shape climate trajectories, our findings lay a physiological foundation on which the understanding and prediction of carbon–climate feedbacks can be advanced.

Lai, Jiameng↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inferring building height from footprint morphology data

As cities continue to grow globally, characterizing the built environment is essential to understanding human populations, projecting energy usage, monitoring urban heat island impacts, preventing environmental degradation, and planning for urban development. Buildings are a key component of the built environment and there is currently a lack of data on building height at the global level. Current methodologies for developing building height models that utilize remote sensing are limited in scale due to the high cost of data acquisition. Other approaches that leverage 2D features are restricted based on the volume of ancillary data necessary to infer height. Here, we find, through a series of experiments covering 74.55 million buildings from the United States, France, and Germany, it is possible, with 95% accuracy, to infer building height within 3 m of the true height using footprint morphology data. Our results show that leveraging individual building footprints can lead to accurate building height predictions while not requiring ancillary data, thus making this method applicable wherever building footprints are available. The finding that it is possible to infer building height from footprint data alone provides researchers a new method to leverage in relation to various applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inference of the neutron down-scatter ratio using neutron time-of-flight data for DT-layered implosions on the OMEGA laser

First analysis of the neutron time of flight (nTOF) data is presented to infer the areal density using the neutron down-scatter ratio (DSR) for OMEGA deuterium–tritium (DT)-layered (cryogenic) implosions. The required very-high-dynamic range (nTOF) signal is constructed using an nTOF detector [Forrest et al., Rev. Sci. Ins. 83, 10D919 (2012)] with multiple time-gated photomultiplier tubes. The nTOF data are analyzed using a forward-fit technique to account for the detector responses and infer the DSR and areal density for DT-layered implosions. The areal densities inferred using this analysis are found to be in agreement with the areal densities measured using the magnetic recoil spectrometer detector that is located in a similar line-of-sight. This work establishes the feasibility of the DSR measurement using nTOF data on OMEGA and provides an additional areal-density measurement that will benefit the assessment of the implosion performance and 3D reconstruction of the imploded core.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Efficient Optimization of Plasma Radiation Detector Configurations using Imperfect Inference Models

The configurations of instruments fielded on an experiment affect the amount of information captured and the quality of subsequent inference. Here, we investigate the problem of optimizing plasma x-ray radiation detectors in a magneto-inertial fusion experiment at Sandia National Laboratories. It is impossible to directly measure properties such as the temperature of the thermonuclear fusion plasma produced in these experiments because of the extreme environment and destructive nature of the experiment. Among other diagnostics, several detectors are placed with significant standoff from the fusion target to capture the x-rays emitted by the fusion plasma, which can be used to infer some of its properties. To optimize the configuration of these detectors, a high-fidelity model (HFM) is used for simulating outputs and a low-fidelity model (LFM) is used for inference. We develop methods based on A- and L-optimality criteria that are efficient to compute while explicitly accounting for the discrepancy between the HFM and the LFM. The method allows us to find detector configurations that perform similarly to or better than the configuration obtained using an existing sampling-based optimization method while decreasing computational time by a factor of 50. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2026

Direct inference of nuclear equation-of-state parameters from gravitational-wave observations

The observation of neutron star mergers with gravitational waves (GWs) has provided a new method to constrain the dense-matter equation of state (EOS) and to better understand its nuclear physics. However, inferring nuclear microphysics from GW observations necessitates the sampling of EOS model parameters that serve as input for each EOS used during the GW data analysis. The sampling of the EOS parameters requires solving the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff (TOV) equations a large number of times—a process that slows down each likelihood evaluation in the analysis on the order of a few seconds. Here, we employ emulators for the TOV equations built using multilayer perceptron neural networks to enable direct inference of nuclear EOS parameters from GW strain data. Our emulators allow us to rapidly solve the TOV equations, taking in EOS parameters and outputting the associated tidal deformability of a neutron star in only a few tens of milliseconds. We implement these emulators in PyCBC to directly infer the EOS parameters using the event GW170817, providing posteriors on these parameters informed solely by GWs. We benchmark these runs against analyses performed using the full TOV solver and find that the emulators achieve speed ups of nearly two orders of magnitude, with negligible differences in the recovered posteriors. Additionally, we constrain the slope and curvature of the symmetry energy at the 90% upper credible interval to be $L$ sym ≲ 106 MeV and $K$ sym ≲ 26 MeV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian inference of nuclear-matter density from proton scattering

Background: Proton elastic scattering at intermediate energy is widely employed as a tool for determining the matter radius of atomic nuclei. Here, the sensitivity of the approach relies on high-resolution measurements at small scattering angles and low-momentum transfer. Under these conditions, the Glauber multiple scattering theory accurately describes the proton-nucleus elastic cross section. Purpose: Investigate the sensitivity of the Glauber multiple scattering theory to uncertainties associated with input parameters such as the nuclear-matter density distribution and nucleon-nucleon data. Method: A joint Bayesian inference was performed using 12 angular distributions of elastic scattering at different energies on 58 Ni, 90 Zr, and 208 Pb targets. A Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was implemented to make an uncertainty quantification analysis for the input parameters used in the Glauber multiple scattering theory. Results: The experimental cross sections were fitted simultaneously using a joint Bayesian inference approach. Posterior probability density distributions of 42 input parameters were obtained from the analysis. A moderate correlation between the nuclear density parameters and the nucleon-nucleon cross sections was found. This correlation impacts the extraction of the nuclear-matter radius. Conclusions: The present analysis provided a consistent method for extracting the nuclear-matter density distribution of 58 Ni, 90 Zr, and 208 Pb from data across different incident energies. Due to the correlation of the nucleon-nucleon cross sections with the other input parameters, a constrained Bayesian inference using free nucleon-nucleon cross section data was performed. The nuclear-matter radii obtained from the analysis are in good agreement with multiple results reported in the literature.

190 ≤ A ≤ 219↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accurate field-level weak lensing inference for precision cosmology

We present miko, a catalog-to-cosmology pipeline for general flat-sky field-level inference, which provides access to cosmological information beyond the two-point statistics. In the context of weak lensing, we identify several new field-level analysis systematics (such as aliasing, Fourier mode-coupling, and density-induced shape noise), quantify their impact on cosmological constraints, and correct the biases to a percent level. Next, we find that model misspecification can lead to both absolute bias and incorrect uncertainty quantification for the inferred cosmological parameters in realistic simulations. The Gaussian map prior infers unbiased cosmological parameters, regardless of the true data distribution, but it yields overconfident uncertainties. The log-normal map prior quantifies the uncertainties accurately, although it requires careful calibration of the shift parameters for unbiased cosmological parameters. Here, we demonstrate systematics control down to the 2% level for both models, making them suitable for ongoing weak lensing surveys.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulation-Based Inference for Neutrino Interaction Model Tuning

This project demonstrates, for the first time, the application of simulation-based inference (SBI) techniques to tune neutrino–nucleus interaction models. Using a mock dataset based on the MicroBooNE tuning of the GENIE event generator, our approach employs a Neural Posterior Estimator (NPE) with Masked Autoregressive Flows (MAF) to infer the posterior distributions of key GENIE parameters directly from simulated histograms. The workflow provides a scalable and amortized framework for performing likelihood-free inference in high-dimensional parameter spaces, offering a pathway to more efficient and uncertainty-aware model tuning for next-generation neutrino experiments such as DUNE and SBND.

Tame-Narvaez, KarlaMaria [Fermi National Accelerat↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fiats: Functional inference and training for surrogates

Fiats provides a platform for research on the training and deployment of neural-network surrogate models for computational science. Fiats also supports exploring, advancing, and combining functional, object-oriented, and parallel programming patterns in Fortran 2023. As such, the Fiats name has dual expansions: “Functional Inference And Training for Surrogates” or “Fortran Inference And Training for Science.” Fiats inference and training procedures are pure and therefore satisfy a language constraint imposed on procedure invocations inside Fortran’s parallel loop construct: do concurrent. Furthermore, the Fiats training procedures are built around a do concurrent parallel reduction. Several compilers can automatically parallelize do concurrent on Central Processing Units (CPUs) or Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). Fiats thus aims to achieve performance portability through standard language mechanisms.

Rouson, Damian [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deployment of inference as a service at the US CMS Tier-2 data centers

Coprocessors, especially GPUs, will be a vital ingredient of data production workflows at the HL-LHC. At CMS, the GPU-as-a-service approach for production workflows is implemented by the SONIC project (Services for Optimized Network Inference on Coprocessors). SONIC provides a mechanism for outsourcing computationally demanding algorithms, such as neural network inference, to remote servers, where requests from multiple clients are intelligently distributed across multiple GPUs by a load-balancing service. This talk highlights the recent progress in deploying SONIC at selected U.S. CMS Tier-2 data centers. Using realistic CMS Run3 data processing workflows, such as those containing transformer-based algorithms, we demonstrate how SONIC is integrated into the production-like environment to enable accelerated inference offloading. We will present developments from both the client and server sides, including production job and data center configurations for NVIDIA and AMD GPUs. We will also present performance scaling benchmarks and discuss the challenges of operating SONIC in CMS production, such as server discovery, GPU saturation, fallback server logic, etc.

Holzman, Burt↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-Efficient and Non-Asymptotic Multiway Inference

We establish non-asymptotic efficiency guarantees for tensor decomposition–based inference in count data models. Under a Poisson framework, we consider two related goals: (i) parametric inference , the estimation of the full distributional parameter tensor, and (ii) multiway analysis , the recovery of its canonical polyadic (CP) decomposition factors. Our main result shows that in the rank-one setting, a rank-constrained maximum-likelihood estimator achieves multiway analysis with variance matching the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) up to absolute constants and logarithmic factors. This provides a general framework for studying “near-efficient” multiway estimators in finite-sample settings. For higher ranks, we illustrate that our multiway estimator may not attain the CRLB; nevertheless, CP-based parametric inference remains nearly minimax optimal, with error bounds that improve on prior work by offering more favorable dependence on the CP rank. Numerical experiments corroborate near-efficiency in the rank-one case and highlight the efficiency gap in higher-rank scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automatically parallelizing batch inference on deep neural networks using Fiats and Fortran 2023 `do concurrent`

This paper introduces novel programming strategies that leverage features of the Fortran 2023 standard of the International Standards Organization (ISO) to automatically parallelize computations on deep neural networks. The paper focuses on the interplay of object-oriented, parallel, and functional programming paradigms in the Fiats deep learning library. We demonstrate how several infrequently used language features play a role in enabling efficient, parallel execution. Specifically, the ability to explicitly declare that a procedure is pure facilitates inference in the context of the language’s loop-parallelism construct `do concurrent`. Also, explicitly prohibiting the overriding of a parent type’s type-bound procedures eliminates the need for dynamic dispatch in performance-critical code. Finally, this paper uses batch inference calculations on a neural network surrogate for atmospheric aerosol dynamics to demonstrate that LLVM Flang compiler’s automatic parallelization of `do concurrent` achieves roughly the same performance and scalability as achieved by OpenMP compiler directives. We also demonstrate that double-precision inference costs 37–72% longer runtime than default-real precision with most values in the range 57-60%.

Rouson, Damian↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging Open-Source Satellite-Derived Building Footprints for Height Inference

At a global scale, cities are growing and characterizing the built environment is essential for deeper understanding of human population patterns, urban development, energy usage, climate change impacts, among others. Buildings are a key component of the built environment and significant progress has been made in recent years to scale building footprint extractions from satellite datum and other remotely sensed products. Billions of building footprints have recently been released by companies such as Microsoft and Google at a global scale. However, research has shown that depending on the methods leveraged to produce a footprint dataset, discrepancies can arise in both the number and shape of footprints produced. Therefore, each footprint dataset should be examined and used on a case-by-case study. In this work, we find through two experiments on Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Microsoft footprints within the same geographic extent that our approach of inferring height from footprint morphology features is source agnostic. Regardless of the differences associated with the methods used to produce a building footprint dataset, our approach of inferring height was able to overcome these discrepancies between the products and generalize, as evidenced by 98% of our results being within 3m of the ground-truthed height. This signifies that our approach can be applied to the billions of open-source footprints which are freely available to infer height, a key building metric. This work impacts the broader domain of urban science in which building height is a key, and limiting factor.

Stipek, Clinton [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000280501096)↗
NASA NTRS1971

Interplanetary magnetic sector polarity inferred from polar geomagnetic field observations

In order to infer the interplanetary sector polarity from polar geomagnetic field diurnal variations, measurements were carried out at Godhavn and Thule (Denmark) Geomagnetic Observatories. The inferred interplanetary sector polarity was compared with the polarity observed at the same time by Explorer 33 and 35 magnetometers. It is shown that the polarity (toward or away from the sun) of the interplanetary magnetic field can be reliably inferred from observations of the polar cap geomagnetic fields.

Friis-Christensen, E.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Comparison of inferred and observed interplanetary magnetic field polarities, 1970-1972

The inferred polarity (toward or away from the sun) of the interplanetary magnetic field at earth using polar observations of the geomagnetic field has been compared with spacecraft observations. A list published by Svalgaard (1974) of the inferred field polarities in the period from 1970 to 1972 is found to be correct on 82% of the days. A near real-time (same day) method of inferring the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field using geomagnetic observations at Vostok and Thule is in use at the NOAA Space Environment Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado. During 1972, this method is found to be correct on 87% of the days. A list of 'well-defined' sector boundaries at earth from 1970 to 1972 is given.

Wilcox, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A comparison of measured and inferred temperatures from AEROS-B

The neutral composition and the temperature data obtained from the AEROS-B Neutral Atmosphere Temperature Experiment (NATE) and the Neutral and Ion Mass Spectrometer (NIMS) are compared, and the general validity of inferring gas temperatures from N2 and Ar density profiles is examined by comparing them with the in situ measured values of the neutral kinetic temperature (NATE). At times serious discrepancies are noted between the inferred and the measured temperature. This is particularly evident during periods of increased magnetic activity when the normally observed latitudinal variations are apparently modulated by waves propagating from the polar region to low latitudes. Under these conditions the N2 and Ar densities and temperature oscillations are usually out of phase, and the temperatures inferred from N2 and Ar at a given point become meaningless.

Chandra, S.↗