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DOE OSTI2026

Engineering Antifreeze Proteins to Optimally Resist Engulfment by Ice

Antifreeze proteins (AFPs) facilitate the survival of organisms in cold climates by inhibiting the growth and/or recrystallization of ice. To function, AFPs must first bind to ice crystals; bound AFPs must then resist engulfment by using their nonbinding side (NBS) to pin the ice–water interface. Here, we seek to understand how the molecular characteristics of an NBS, such as its ice-phobicity or shape, influence its ability to resist engulfment. By characterizing the free energy barriers that impede the engulfment of model AFPs, we find that the critical supercooling ΔT*, above which an AFP is engulfed, is dictated by an optimal pinning site on the NBS. We further find that the optimal pinning site is determined by an interplay between the contact line perimeter P and a pinning efficiency η, with ΔT* ∝ ηP at the optimal pinning site. For a hemispherical AFP, which displays progressively inward tapering, we find that η increases during engulfment, whereas P decreases; conversely, an NBS with outward tapering can achieve high P, but it suffers from low η. Because the product of η and P determines ΔT*, the inverse correlation between them limits ΔT. To circumvent such limiting behavior, we propose an NBS shape with an outward bulge; by initially tapering outward, a bulged NBS permits higher P, and by subsequently tapering inward, it promotes high η as well. Importantly, we find that ΔT* is enhanced by more than a factor of 2 with an outward bulge of only 1 nm. We also find that the more ice-phobic an NBS is, the more efficiently it pins the ice–water interface, resulting in a higher ΔT. Furthermore, our findings shed light on how the NBS molecular characteristics influence ΔT* and suggest strategies for engineering the NBS to optimally resist engulfment by ice.

Antifreeze↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Nonlinear and Distinct Responses of Ocean Heat Content and Anthropogenic Carbon to Ice Sheet Freshwater Discharge in a Warming Climate

Anthropogenic climate change will drive extensive mass loss across both the Antarctic (AIS) and Greenland Ice Sheets (GrIS), with the potential for global climate system feedbacks, especially in polar regions. Historically, the high-latitude North Atlantic and Southern Ocean have been critical regions for anthropogenic heat and carbon uptake, but our understanding of how this uptake will be altered by future freshwater discharge is incomplete. We assess each ice sheet's impact on global ocean anthropogenic heat and carbon storage for a high-emission scenario over the 21 st -century using a coupled Earth system model. We explore the impact of contemporaneous mass loss from both ice sheets on anthropogenic heat and carbon storage and quantify their linear and nonlinear contributions. Notably, added freshwater reduces ocean heat and carbon storage by 2,100, and the sum of individual freshwater effects differ from those induced by simultaneous freshwater discharge from both ice sheets. Combined AIS and GrIS freshwater engenders distinct anthropogenic storage anomalies—particularly in the high-latitude Southern Ocean and North Atlantic. From 2080 to 2100, GrIS freshwater exerts primary control on the temporal evolution of global ocean heat storage, while global ocean carbon storage is modulated by the linear AIS and GrIS freshwater impacts. Nonlinear impacts of simultaneous ice sheet discharge have a non-negligible contribution to the evolution of global ocean heat storage. Further, anthropogenic heat changes are realized more quickly in response to ice sheet discharge than anthropogenic carbon. Our results highlight the need to incorporate both ice sheets actively in climate models to accurately project future global climate.

Gorte, Tessa↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Machine Learning Framework for Predicting Microphysical Properties of Ice Crystals From Cloud Particle Imagery

The microphysical properties of ice crystals are important because they significantly alter the radiative properties and spatiotemporal distributions of clouds, which in turn strongly affect Earth's climate. However, it is challenging to measure key properties of ice crystals, such as mass or morphological features. Here, we present a proof-of-concept framework for predicting three-dimensional (3D) microphysical properties of ice crystals from in situ two-dimensional (2D) imagery. First, we computationally generated synthetic ice crystals using 3D modeling software along with geometric parameters estimated from the 2021 Ice Cryo-Encapsulation Balloon (ICEBall) field campaign. Then, we used synthetic crystals to train machine learning (ML) models to predict effective density ($ρ_e$), effective surface area ($A_e$), and number of bullets ($N_b$) from synthetic rosette imagery. On unseen synthetic images, our ML models accurately predicted ice crystal properties. ResNet-18 performed best, achieving $R^2$ values of 0.99 and 0.98 for $ρ_e$ and $A_e$, respectively, and MAE of 0.10 for mathematical equation in single view tasks. Stereo view ResNet-18 further reduced RMSE by 40% for $ρ_e$ and $A_e$ and reduced MAE by 0.08 for $N_b$. This work provides a novel ML-driven framework for estimating ice microphysical properties from in situ imagery, which will allow for downstream constraints on microphysical parameterizations, such as the mass-size relationship.

Ko, J. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United State↗

DOE OSTI2024

Medium-density amorphous ice unveils shear rate as a new dimension in water’s phase diagram

Recent experiments revealed a new amorphous ice phase, medium-density amorphous ice (MDA), formed by ball-milling ice I h at 77 K [Rosu-Finsen et al., Science 379, 474–478 (2023)]. MDA has density between that of low-density amorphous (LDA) and high-density amorphous (HDA) ices, adding to the complexity of water’s phase diagram, known for its glass polyamorphism and two-state thermodynamics. The nature of MDA and its relation to other amorphous ices and liquid water remain unsolved. Here, we use molecular simulations under controlled pressure and shear rate at 77 K to produce and investigate MDA. Here. we find that MDA formed at constant shear rate is a steady-state nonequilibrium shear-driven amorphous ice (SDA), that can be produced by shearing ice I h , LDA, or HDA. Our results suggest that MDA could be obtained by ball-milling water glasses without crystallization interference. Increasing the shear rate at ambient pressure produces SDAs with densities ranging from LDA to HDA, revealing shear rate as a new thermodynamic variable in the nonequilibrium phase diagram of water. Indeed, shearing provides access to amorphous states inaccessible by controlling pressure and temperature alone. SDAs produced with shearing rates as high as 10 6 s −1 sample the same region of the potential energy landscape than hyperquenched glasses with identical density, pressure, and temperature. Intriguingly, SDAs obtained by shearing at ~10 8 s −1 have density, enthalpy, and structure indistinguishable from those of water “instantaneously” quenched from room temperature to 77 K over 10 ps, making them good approximants for the “true glass” of ambient liquid water.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structure of ice VII with Hirshfeld atom refinement

In the refinement of the crystal structures of ice, the best results obtained so far have been with neutron diffraction because the most troublemaking aspects are the hydrogen atoms. In nine out of twenty ice structures, the hydrogen atoms are disordered, which makes proper refinement more difficult. In our previous paper describing the structure of ice VI we proved that, using Hirshfeld atom refinement (HAR) based on synchrotron X-ray data, it is possible to obtain results comparable with those from neutron experiments. In this work, we investigate another structure of high-pressure disordered ice, cubo-ice (ice VII). Single crystals of cubo-ice were grown under pressure in diamond anvil cells. X-ray diffraction measurements were conducted at a synchrotron source facility (APS, University of Chicago, USA) as well as on our regular in-house laboratory diffractometer with Ag radiation. The data collected were further refined with HAR. Comparison of the structural parameters obtained with those derived from neutron diffraction showed very good agreement in terms of bond lengths and fairly good agreement in terms of hydrogen atom ADPs. We were also able to perform unconstrained refinements with various split-atom models.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2026

As above, not so below: Ion fractionation in planetary analog ices

The geophysical evolution and astrobiological potential of ocean worlds are indelibly linked to the chemical compositions of their oceans and ice shells. In the absence of direct measurements, empirical estimates of subsurface ocean compositions have relied on the assumption that the ionic compositions of ice shell surfaces are representative of their underlying ocean compositions. Here, we present experimental results demonstrating that ion fractionation—the differential entrainment of ion species in forming ices—is likely a prevalent process on ocean worlds, suggesting that planetary ice shell compositions do not directly reflect their underlying ocean compositions. We measure in-ice depletions and amplifications of relative ion concentrations ranging between −40 and +77%, compared to the parent fluid composition. Although this may complicate the interpretation of spacecraft data, ion fractionation provides a mechanism for generating compositionally diverse ices that could help explain the geological complexity of planetary ice shells.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A radar view of ice microphysics and turbulence in Arctic cloud systems

Ice microphysical processes are inherently complex because of their sensitivity to temperature and humidity, the diversity of ice crystal habits, and their interaction with supercooled liquid water (SCL) and turbulence. Long-term surface-based radar observations have been systematically used to unravel the different processes that affect ice particle growth. In this study, we present a statistical analysis of 6.5 years of Ka-band radar observations in Arctic cloud systems, combined with thermodynamic profiles derived from radiosonde measurements. For the first time, ice particle growth and sublimation – diagnosed from vertical gradients of radar reflectivity and mean Doppler velocity – are systematically mapped across a broad range of temperature and moisture conditions. These vertical gradients correspond closely to saturation levels relative to ice and exhibit a strong temperature dependence in supersaturated regions. Notably, distinct signatures near −15 °C are indicative of dendritic growth. Turbulence, quantified via the eddy dissipation rate (EDR), is most frequently observed in regions containing SCL. The co-occurrence of SCL and elevated turbulence results in significantly enhanced ice particle growth compared to conditions in which either is present alone. This work provides new observational constraints that are critical for improving the representation of ice microphysics in atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

East Antarctic Ice Sheet variability in the central Transantarctic Mountains since the mid Miocene

The response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to warmer-than-present climate conditions has direct implications for projections of future sea level, ocean circulation, and global radiative forcing. Nonetheless, it remains uncertain whether the ice sheet is likely to undergo net loss due to amplified melting coupled with dynamic instabilities or whether such losses will be balanced, or even offset, by enhanced accumulation under a higher-precipitation regime. The glacial depositional record from the central Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) provides a robust geologic means to reconstruct the past behaviour of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, including during periods thought to have been warmer than today, such as the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~3.3–3.0 Ma). This study describes a new surface-exposure-dated moraine record from Otway Massif in the central TAM spanning the last ~9 Myr and synthesises these data in the context of previously published moraine chronologies constrained with cosmogenic nuclides. The resulting record, although fragmentary, represents the majority of direct and unambiguous terrestrial evidence for the existence and size of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet during the last 14 Myr, and it thus provides new insight into the long-term relationship between the ice sheet and global climate. At face value, the existing TAM moraine record does not exhibit a clear signature of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, thus precluding a definitive verdict on the East Antarctic Ice Sheet's response to this event. In contrast, an apparent hiatus in moraine deposition both at Otway Massif and the neighbouring Roberts Massif suggests that the ice sheet surface in the central TAM was potentially lower than present during the late Miocene and earliest Pliocene.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Antarctic ice sheet model comparison with uncurated geological constraints shows that higher spatial resolution improves deglacial reconstructions

Accurately reconstructing past changes to the shape and volume of the Antarctic ice sheet relies on the use of physically based and thus internally consistent ice sheet modeling, benchmarked against spatially limited geologic data. The challenge in model benchmarking against geologic data is diagnosing whether model-data misfits are the result of an inadequate model, inherently noisy or biased geologic data, and/or incorrect association between modeled quantities and geologic observations. In this work we address this challenge by (i) the development and use of a new model-data evaluation framework applied to an uncurated data set of geologic constraints, and (ii) nested high-spatial-resolution modeling designed to test the hypothesis that model resolution is an important limitation in matching geologic data. While previous approaches to model benchmarking employed highly curated datasets, our approach applies an automated screening and quality control algorithm to an uncurated public dataset of geochronological observations (specifically, cosmogenic-nuclide exposure-age measurements from glacial deposits in ice-free areas). This optimizes data utilization by including more geological constraints, reduces potential interpretive bias, and allows unsupervised assimilation of new data as they are collected. We also incorporate a nested model framework in which high-resolution domains are downscaled from a continent-wide ice sheet model. We highlight the application of this framework by applying these methods to a small ensemble of deglacial ice-sheet model simulations, and demonstrate that the nested approach improves the ability of model simulations to match exposure age data collected from areas of complex topography and ice flow. We develop a range of diagnostic model-data comparison metrics to provide more insight into model performance than possible from a single-valued misfit statistic, showing that different metrics capture different aspects of ice sheet deflation.

Geosciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Salinity on Ground Ice Distribution Across an Arctic Coastal Polygonal Tundra Environment

The heterogeneous distribution of ground ice in the Arctic is a key driver of uneven ground subsidence as permafrost thaws, significantly impacting infrastructure and surface/subsurface hydrology. These topographic and hydrological changes contribute to major uncertainties in energy and carbon fluxes and storage in a warming Arctic. This study aims to improve our understanding of the controls on ground ice and organic matter distribution within the top 3 m of permafrost in coastal polygonal tundra near Utqiagvik, Alaska. To this end, we apply a neural network approach to bulk density distributions derived from nondestructive X-ray tomography of soil cores, trained with laboratory analyses, to improve the resolution and spatial coverage of estimates of dry bulk density, ice content, and organic matter content. In addition, we use capacitively coupled geophysical imaging to map soil electrical conductivity and salinity variations. The results show that sedimentary deposits from ocean transgressions, along with subsequent ice wedge polygon geomorphological processes, jointly influence the distribution of ice content at various scales. The impact of the latter decreases with depth, whereas the influence of salinity and sedimentary history increases. Although the controls on the distribution of soil organic matter content (g/cm 3 ) remain unclear, the pronounced heterogeneity in bulk density strongly influences its calculation from laboratory mass fraction measurements (g/g). From a methodological perspective, the interdependencies among soil components and the need for increased data coverage underscore the value of high-resolution density measurements, such as using X-ray tomography. Overall, this study emphasizes the importance of considering salinity constraints on ice content distribution in coastal permafrost regions. The results are expected to aid in the development of data products and process representations in geomorphological and ecosystem models.

Dafflon, Baptiste [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Quantum Effects on the Electronic Structure of Water and Ice

The electronic properties and optical response of ice and water are intricately shaped by their molecular structure, including the quantum mechanical nature of the hydrogen atoms. Despite numerous previous studies, a comprehensive understanding of the nuclear quantum effects (NQEs) on the electronic structure of water and ice at finite temperatures remains elusive. Here, we utilize molecular simulations that harness efficient machine-learning potentials and many-body perturbation theory to assess how NQEs impact the electronic bands of water and hexagonal ice. By comparing path-integral and classical simulations, we find that NQEs lead to a larger renormalization of the fundamental gap of ice, compared to that of water, ultimately yielding similar bandgaps in the two systems, consistent with experimental estimates. Our calculations suggest that the increased quantum mechanical delocalization of protons in ice, relative to water, is a key factor leading to the enhancement of NQEs on the electronic structure of ice.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning Eliminates Reanalysis Warm Bias and Reveals Weaker Winter Surface Cooling Over Arctic Sea Ice

The surface energy budget governs Arctic sea-ice growth/melt, yet observations are sparse, and reanalysis data sets suffer from systematic biases. Here, we train a neural network with observational data to bias-correct hourly ERA5 fluxes over Arctic ice-covered regions (≥70°N; sea-ice concentration >80%) for 1994–2024. Training data cover two full seasonal cycles and different sea-ice regimes. The neural network reduces RMSE for net shortwave radiation by ∼40%, downward longwave radiation by ∼16% and the total surface energy budget by ∼55%, eliminating the wintertime warm bias of ∼4 K in ERA5. Wintertime surface cooling is reduced by ∼50%, yielding thermodynamic ice-growth estimates of ∼80–120 cm, consistent with SMOS–CryoSat satellite thickness increases and in contrast to the 150–200 cm growth implied by ERA5. Our bias-corrected data capture the observed clear/cloudy states of the winter boundary layer and can be used to study Arctic climatology, evaluate climate models and drive sea-ice-ocean models.

Hossain, Akil [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quasi-one-dimensional hydrogen bonding in nanoconfined ice

Abstract The Bernal-Fowler ice rules stipulate that each water molecule in an ice crystal should form four hydrogen bonds. However, in extreme or constrained conditions, the arrangement of water molecules deviates from conventional ice rules, resulting in properties significantly different from bulk water. In this study, we employ machine learning-driven first-principles simulations to identify a new stabilization mechanism in nanoconfined ice phases. Instead of forming four hydrogen bonds, nanoconfined crystalline ice can form a quasi-one-dimensional hydrogen-bonded structure that exhibits only two hydrogen bonds per water molecule. These structures consist of strongly hydrogen-bonded linear chains of water molecules that zig-zag along one dimension, stabilized by van der Waals interactions that stack these chains along the other dimension. The unusual interplay of hydrogen bonding and van der Waals interactions in nanoconfined ice results in atypical proton behavior such as potential ferroelectric behavior, low dielectric response, and long-range proton dynamics.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-efficiency frost and ice control via sensing-assisted nanovibrational slippery surfaces

Frost and ice accretions on surfaces pose persistent challenges across numerous industrial, residential and transportation systems. While various removal strategies exist, they often suffer from limited effectiveness or high energy consumption, such as frosting delay, ice crack generation, and Joule heating. Here, in this work, we report a novel integrated approach combining vibrational quasi-liquid surface (QLS) and capacitive sensing for efficient condensate, frost, and ice management. Compared to Joule heating, our approach does not rely on complete melting and evaporation for removal, resulting in 68% and 95% energy savings for frost and ice removal, respectively. Our QLS coating significantly reduces surface retention forces, achieving 91% and 87% less residual mass compared to hydrophilic surfaces for frost and ice removal through surface nanovibration, respectively. The integrated capacitive sensor provides real-time detection of different phase states, enabling on-demand removal in precise timeframes. This sensor-assisted approach showed 3.8 times lower energy consumption compared to conventional Joule heating for defrosting. This synergistic integration of surface engineering, nanovibration, and intelligent sensing represents a significant advancement in phase change processes, offering an energy-efficient solution for frost and ice mitigation in energy-intensive systems.

Shen, Yuchen [Univ. of Texas at Dallas, Richardson↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improved modeling of in-ice particle showers for IceCube event reconstruction

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory relies on an array of photomultiplier tubes to detect Cherenkov light produced by charged particles in the South Pole ice. IceCube data analyses depend on an in-depth characterization of the glacial ice, and on novel approaches in event reconstruction that utilize fast approximations of photoelectron yields. Here, a more accurate model is derived for event reconstruction that better captures our current knowledge of ice optical properties. When evaluated on a Monte Carlo simulation set, the median angular resolution for in-ice particle showers improves by over a factor of three compared to a reconstruction based on a simplified model of the ice. The most substantial improvement is obtained when including effects of birefringence due to the polycrystalline structure of the ice. When evaluated on data classified as particle showers in the high-energy starting events sample, a significantly improved description of the events is observed.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting September Arctic Sea Ice: A Multimodel Seasonal Skill Comparison

This study quantifies the state of the art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multimodel dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–20 for predictions of pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on 1 June, 1 July, 1 August, and 1 September. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multimodel median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least 3 months in advance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental design for the Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2)

The Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2) is a natural progression of previous and ongoing model intercomparison exercises that have focused on the simulation of ice-sheet and ocean processes in Antarctica. The previous exercises motivate the move towards realistic configurations, as well as more diverse model parameters and resolutions. The main objective of MISOMIP2 is to investigate the performance of existing ocean and coupled ice-sheet–ocean models in a range of Antarctic environments through comparisons to observational data. We will assess the status of ice-sheet–ocean modelling as a community and identify common characteristics of models that are best able to capture observed features. As models are highly tuned based on present-day data, we will also compare their sensitivity to prescribed abrupt atmospheric perturbations leading to either very warm or slightly warmer ocean conditions compared to the present day. The approach of MISOMIP2 is to welcome contributions of models as they are, including global and regional configurations, but we request standardized variables and common grids for the outputs. We target the analysis at two specific regions, the Amundsen Sea and the Weddell Sea, since they describe two different ocean environments and have been relatively well observed compared to other areas of Antarctica. An observational “MIPkit” synthesizing existing ocean and ice-sheet observations for a common period is provided to evaluate ocean and ice-sheet models in these two regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Subglacial discharge effects on basal melting of a rotating, idealized ice shelf

When subglacial meltwater is discharged into the ocean at the grounding line, it acts as a source of buoyancy, enhancing flow speeds along the ice base that result in higher basal melt rates. The effects of subglacial discharge have been well studied in the context of a Greenland-like, vertical calving front, where Earth's rotation can be neglected. Here we study these effects in the context of Antarctic ice shelves, where rotation is important. We use a numerical model to simulate ocean circulation and basal melting beneath an idealized three-dimensional ice shelf and vary the rate and distribution of subglacial discharge. For channelized discharge, we find that in the rotating case, total melt-flux anomaly increases with two-thirds power of the discharge, in contrast to existing non-rotating results for which the melt-flux anomaly increases with one-third power of the discharge. The higher melt-flux anomaly with discharge is attributed to a more extensive area of the ice-shelf base being exposed to direct high melting by the rising plume as it is deflected due to Earth's rotation and its path is prolonged. For distributed discharge, we find that in both the rotating and the non-rotating cases, the melt-flux anomaly increases with two-thirds power of the discharge. Furthermore, in the rotating case, the addition of channelized, subglacial discharge can produce either a higher or a lower ice-shelf basal melt-flux anomaly than the equivalent amount of distributed discharge, depending on its location along the grounding line relative to the directionality of the Coriolis force. This contrasts with previous results from non-rotating, vertical ice-cliff simulations, where distributed discharge was always found to be more efficient than channelized discharge at enhancing the terminus-averaged melt rate. The implication, based on our idealized simulations, is that melt-rate parameterizations attempting to include subglacial discharge effects that are not geometry- and rotation-aware may produce total melt-flux anomalies that are off by a factor of 2 or more.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗