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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Establishing nationwide power system vulnerability index across US counties using interpretable machine learning

Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, in this work, we collected ∼179 million power outage records at 15-min intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15 % of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability across the US counties over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Our heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties and those located along regional transmission boundaries tend to exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interpretation of wide-angle x-ray diffraction patterns from mesophase pitch-based carbon fibers – a simulation and experimental study

Carbon fiber is a critical material in a wide range of industries, where it is highly valued for its high specific strength/stiffness, excellent wear resistance, efficient electrical and thermal transport properties, chemical resistance, and low coefficient of thermal expansion. The properties of a specific carbon fiber are closely tied to its structural characteristics at all length scales. Here, in this work, we applied wide-angle x-ray diffraction to a set of heat-treated mesophase pitch-based carbon fibers, with the goal of elucidating the crystalline structures as a function of fiber orientation. To assist with analysis and interpretation of the experimental data, we employed diffraction pattern simulations using the scalar and vector forms of the Debye scattering equation to determine the influence of basal plane orientation, crystalline ordering (turbostratic-graphitic), and basal plane asymmetry on the diffraction patterns. The results presented here suggest that growth of the transverse crystallites in mesophase pitch-based carbon fiber is fixed until graphitization temperatures are reached. The work completed here provides a framework for the analysis of carbon fiber and other oriented carbon-based materials via diffraction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Street-level temperature estimation using graph neural networks: Performance, feature embedding and interpretability

Estimating street-level air temperature is a challenging task due to the highly heterogeneous urban surfaces, canyon-like street morphology, and the diverse physical processes in the built environment. Though pioneering studies have embarked on investigations via data-driven approaches, many questions remain to be answered. Here, in this study, we leveraged an innovative framework and redefined the street-level temperature estimation problem using Graph Neural Networks (GNN) with spatial embedding techniques. The results showed that GNN models are more capable and consistent of estimating street-level temperature among tested locations, benefiting from its unique strength in handling extensive data over unstructured graph topology. In addition, we conducted in-depth analysis of feature importance to enhance the model interpretability. Among the urban features analyzed in this study, the time-variant canopy density and meter-level land use data emerge as crucial factors. Our findings highlight GNN 's high potential in capturing the complex dynamics between urban elements and their impacts on microclimate, thus offering valuable insights for comprehensive urban data collection and urban climate modeling in general. Collectively, this study also contributes to urban planning and policy by providing avenues to enhance city resilience against climate change, thereby advancing the agenda for environmental stewardship and urban sustainability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

PubChemLite Plus Collision Cross Section (CCS) Values for Enhanced Interpretation of Nontarget Environmental Data

Finding relevant chemicals in the vast (known) chemical space is a major challenge for environmental and exposomics studies leveraging nontarget high resolution mass spectrometry (NT-HRMS) methods. Chemical databases now contain hundreds of millions of chemicals, yet many are not relevant. This article details an extensive collaborative, open science effort to provide a dynamic collection of chemicals for environmental, metabolomics, and exposomics research, along with supporting information about their relevance to assist researchers in the interpretation of candidate hits. The PubChemLite for Exposomics collection is compiled from ten annotation categories within PubChem, enhanced with patent, literature and annotation counts, predicted partition coefficient (logP) values, as well as predicted collision cross section (CCS) values using CCSbase. Monthly versions are archived on Zenodo under a CC-BY license, supporting reproducible research, and a new interface has been developed, including historical trends of patent and literature data, for researchers to browse the collection. This article details how PubChemLite can support researchers in environmental and exposomics studies, describes efforts to increase the availability of experimental CCS values, and explores known limitations and potential for future developments. The data and code behind these efforts are openly available.

PubChem↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning a Simple Interpretable Short-Range Potential for Silica

A wide array of models, spanning from computationally expensive ab initio methods to a spectrum of force-field approaches, have been developed and employed to probe silica polymorphs and understand growth processes and atomic-level dynamical transitions in silica. However, the quest for a model capable of making accurate predictions with high computational efficiency for various silica polymorphs is still ongoing. Recent developments in short-range machine-learned models, such as GAP and NNPScan, have shown promise in providing reasonable descriptions of silica, but their computational cost remains high compared to force fields such as BKS which are based on simple interpretable functional forms. Here, in this study, we build on the recent success of our reinforcement learning (RL) workflow to derive a new set of optimal parameters for a promising short-range BKS-based model proposed by Soules. We use RL to navigate the eight-dimensional parameter space of the Soules potential using an experimental training data set that includes both local and global structural features from approximately 21 experimentally realized silica polymorphs, including high density phases and porous zeolites. We compare the performance of our machine-learned ML-Soules model with other high quality models including our recent machine-learned parametrization of BKS (ML-BKS), a machine-learned potential (GAP), as well as predictions of ab initio calculations with the highly fidelity SCAN functional. The ML-Soules accurately captures the relative energetic ordering of various polymorphs as well as their structural features at a significantly reduced computational expense. The ML-Soules model also reasonably captures the structure, density, and elastic constants of quartz, as well as metastable silica polymorphs. We further discuss the limitations of the Soules functional form and propose potential enhancements, including the incorporation of additional three-body terms and/or the utilization of different short-ranged functional forms to achieve greater accuracy for both global and local features in the modeling of silica while retaining low computational cost.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Catalytic Resonance Theory: Experimental and Kinetic Interpretation of Programmable Catalysis

The complexity of programmable catalysts that change in the physical or electronic state on the time scale of a catalytic turnover results in uncertainty in the kinetic outcome of common measurements with dynamic catalyst experiments. To provide an interpretation of utility to experimentalists, a general programmable catalytic reaction exhibiting high turnover efficiency was simulated to understand the kinetic behavior of catalysts with varying frequency, binding energy, oscillation amplitude, and minimum oscillation binding energy at different temperatures and reactant gas pressures. The time-averaged catalytic rate for varying temperature in the form of an Arrhenius plot exhibited three distinct kinetic regimes, with the intermediate temperatures or applied frequencies exhibiting zero slope, indicative of barrier-free kinetic control. Transitions in experimentally measurable kinetic regimes with both temperature and applied catalyst oscillation frequency were associated with transitions in the sensitivity of reaction rate constants and degrees of rate control. Furthermore, these distinct kinetic macroscopic features specific to programmable catalysts were identified for observation in experimental dynamic kinetic measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Robust Interpretation of Electrochemical Impedance Spectra Using Numerical Complex Analysis

Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) is a noninvasive technique widely used for understanding charge transfer and charge transport processes in electrochemical systems and devices. Standard approaches for the interpretation of EIS data involve starting with a hypothetical circuit model for the physical processes in the device based on experience/intuition and then fitting the EIS data to this circuit model. This work explores a mathematical approach for extracting key characteristic features from EIS data by relying on fundamental principles of complex analysis. These characteristic features can suggest the presence of inductors and constant phase elements (nonideal capacitors) from impedance data and enable us to answer questions about the identifiability and nonuniqueness of equivalent circuit models. In certain scenarios such as models with only resistors and capacitors, we are able to enumerate all possible families of circuit models. Finally, we apply the mathematical framework presented here to real-world electrochemical systems and highlight results using impedance measurements from a lithium-ion battery coin cell.

charge transfer↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interpretable machine learning models classify minerals via spectroscopy

Developing methods to identify mineral species confidently and rapidly from Raman spectral analysis is critical to numerous fields. Traditionally, analysis relies on pattern matching the Raman spectrum of an unknown dataset with a supporting library of well-characterized spectral data, which may prove difficult for environmental samples that are poorly crystalline or phase mixtures. Here, we developed interpretable machine learning models that can classify uranium minerals by secondary oxyanion chemistry and other physicochemical properties based solely on Raman spectra. This new ML method produces a mineral profile of physical and chemical properties for an unknown sample and can rapidly classify or identify unknown minerals from Raman data, without the need for an exact pattern match in a spectral library. Training models are validated by 1. Strong correlation of high confidence model regions with published spectroscopic assignments and 2. Correct classification of a mineral not present in training data. Training data are from the Compendium of Uranium Raman and Infrared Experimental Spectra and available crystallographic information files within the open-source Smart Spectral Matching scientific framework. Physically meaningful classifier models can rapidly identify key structural and chemical information about unknown uranium minerals and the overall methodology is broadly applicable for mineral phases.

Machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interpretable ensemble learning unveils main aerosol optical properties in predicting cloud condensation nuclei number concentration

Variations in cloud condensation nuclei number concentration (N CCN ) significantly influence cloud microphysics, yet direct N CCN measurements remain challenging. Here, we present an N CCN ensemble learning (NEL) model utilizing ensemble learning and interpretability analysis on aerosol optical parameters. Validated at two land sites, two ocean sites and one polar site within the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program, the mean absolute percentage error range of the NEL model across different environments is from 12% to 36%, demonstrating high accuracy. Key findings reveal that aerosol optical parameters can serve as predictors for N CCN . Aerosol scattering and backscattering coefficients, absorption coefficient, backscatter fraction (BSF), and Ångström exponent (AE) are positively correlated with N CCN , while single scattering albedo shows negative correlations. N CCN prediction at land sites is highly sensitive to BSF, largely driven by the backscattering coefficient, as fine particles dominate in these sites. At ocean sites, N CCN prediction is more sensitive to AE, primarily influenced by the scattering coefficient, due to the higher proportion of larger particles. At the polar site, N CCN prediction shows sensitivity to both BSF and AE, mainly driven by the scattering coefficient, as polar sites are cleaner and contain larger particles. These differences reflect the variation in particle size and number concentration across different environments.

Atmospheric science↗
DOE OSTI2025

The persistent shadow of the supermassive black hole of M87. II. Model comparisons and theoretical interpretations

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observation of M87∗ in 2018 has revealed a ring with a diameter that is consistent with the 2017 observation. The brightest part of the ring is shifted to the southwest from the southeast. In this paper, we provide theoretical interpretations for the multi-epoch EHT observations for M87∗ by comparing a new general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics model image library with the EHT observations for M87∗ in both 2017 and 2018. The model images include aligned and tilted accretion with parameterized thermal and nonthermal synchrotron emission properties. The 2018 observation again shows that the spin vector of the M87∗ supermassive black hole is pointed away from Earth. A shift of the brightest part of the ring during the multi-epoch observations can naturally be explained by the turbulent nature of black hole accretion, which is supported by the fact that the more turbulent retrograde models can explain the multi-epoch observations better than the prograde models. The EHT data are inconsistent with the tilted models in our model image library. Assuming that the black hole spin axis and its large-scale jet direction are roughly aligned, we expect the brightest part of the ring to be most commonly observed 90 deg clockwise from the forward jet. This prediction can be statistically tested through future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydra: An AI-Based Framework for Interpretable and Portable Data Quality Monitoring

Hydra is an advanced framework designed for training and managing AI models for near real time data quality monitoring at Jefferson Lab. Deployed in all four experimental halls, Hydra has analyzed over 2 million images and has extended its capabilities to offline monitoring and validation. Hydra utilizes computer vision to continually analyze sets of images of monitoring plots generated 24/7 during experiments. Generally, these sets of images are produced at a rate and quantity that is exceedingly difficult for shift crews to effectively monitor. Significant effort has been devoted to enhancing Hydra’s user interface, to ensure that it provides clear, actionable insights for shift workers and other users. Gradient Weighted Class Activation Maps (GradCAM) provide added interpretability, allowing users to visualize important regions of the image for classification. Hydra has been containerized to enable the creation of portable demos and seamless integration with container-based technologies such as Kubernetes and Docker. With the user interface enhancements and containerization, Hydra can be rapidly deployed for new use cases and experiments. This talk will describe the Hydra framework, its user interface and experience, and the challenges inherent in its design and deployment.

Britton, Thomas [Thomas Jefferson National Acceler↗
DOE OSTI2024

Novel data interpretation method for DIII-D divertor retarding field energy analyzer with 3-D particle-in-cell simulations

A novel data interpretation process that utilizes comprehensive particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations is developed for the new retarding field energy analyzer (RFEA) currently being constructed at DIII-D for the lower divertor using the Divertor Material Evaluation System. Furthermore, this probe is expected to survive a heat load of up to 100 MW/m 2 for up to 5 s and reliably measure the main ion temperature (T i ) on the divertor target ranging from 10 to 200 eV. These extreme conditions posed significant engineering limitations on the probe geometry, thus extensive validation work has been performed. The conventional fitting method for the RFEA I–V characteristics is based on a simplified 1-D model without considering the ion space charge inside the probe cavity and may not be sufficient for probes designed for the DIII-D divertor environment. In this article, a more realistic description of the particle propagation process within the RFEA cavity is achieved by including both 3-D geometric effects and ion space charge in the PIC simulations, and the capability to reconstruct the ion energy distribution functions is demonstrated with reasonable consistency.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

New interpretation of ion cyclotron emission from a tokamak

The tempting interpretation of ion cyclotron emission in terms of compressional Alfvén eigenmodes involving energetic ions is inconsistent with recent TCV experimental observations in some important aspects, such as (i) the perturbed poloidal field is exceeding the parallel perturbed magnetic field significantly, and (ii) the modes are near cyclotron harmonic and exhibit Alfvèn scaling of their frequency. We show that these characteristics can be explained by considering finite Larmor radius effects of thermal ions in shear Alfvén waves that allow such waves to exist well above the ion cyclotron frequency in the form of wave-packets bouncing within the plasma volume.

Plasma waves↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical inference of anomalous thermal transport with uncertainty quantification for interpretive 2D SOL models

The critical task of inferring anomalous cross-field transport coefficients is addressed in simulations of boundary plasmas with fluid models. A workflow for parameter inference in the UEDGE fluid code is developed using Bayesian optimization with parallelized sampling and integrated uncertainty quantification. In this workflow, transport coefficients are inferred by maximizing their posterior probability distribution, which is generally multidimensional and non-Gaussian. Uncertainty quantification is integrated throughout the optimization within the Bayesian framework that combines diagnostic uncertainties and model limitations. As a concrete example, we infer the anomalous electron thermal diffusivity $\chi_\perp$ from an interpretive 2D model describing electron heat transport in the conduction-limited region with radiative power loss. The workflow is first benchmarked against synthetic data and then tested on H-, L-, and I-mode discharges to match their midplane temperature and divertor heat flux profiles. We demonstrate that the workflow efficiently infers diffusivity and its associated uncertainty, generating 2D profiles that match 1D measurements. Future efforts will focus on incorporating more complicated fluid models and analyzing transport coefficients inferred from a large database of experimental results.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Super-X and conventional divertor configurations in MAST-U ohmic L-mode; a comparison facilitated by interpretative modelling

Measurements are presented, alongside corresponding interpretative SOLPS-ITER simulations, of the first MAST-U experiments comparing ohmically heated L-mode fuelling scans in Conventional divertor (CD) and Super-X divertor (SXD) configurations. In experiment, at comparable outer mid-plane separatrix electron density, $n_{e,\textrm{sep,OMP}}$, the maximum lower outer target heat load was found to be a factor 16 $\,\pm\,7$ lower in SXD compared to CD. In simulation, a factor 26.8 reduction was found (slightly higher than the experimental range), suggesting an additional reduction in SXD compared to the factor 9.3 expected from geometric considerations alone. According to the simulations, this additional reduction in the SXD is due to a net radial transport of the energy remaining downstream of the $T_e = 5$ eV location. This energy is carried out of the critical (highest heat load) flux tube by deuterium atoms, demonstrating the importance of a longer legged divertor which provides space for this to occur. Importantly, in both simulation and experiment, the SXD has minimal impact on the upstream n e and T e profiles. Spectral inferences of detachment front movement in SXD compare well between simulation and experiment. In regions of high magnetic field gradient, the parallel movement of the front towards the X-point becomes less sensitive to increasing $n_{e,\textrm{sep,OMP}}$, in qualitative agreement with simplified models and previous predictive simulations. Additional aspects, regarding the target ion flux rollover, upstream separatrix temperature and drift effects, are also presented and discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Interpretive modeling of tungsten divertor leakage during experiments with neon gas seeding

Abstract Many existing and future tokamaks with tungsten divertors operate, or will operate, with low- Z impurity seeding, but the direct effect of these seeded impurities on tungsten Scrape-off-Layer (SOL) transport has not been explored in detail. This paper reports on a DIII-D experiment designed to test how tungsten divertor leakage from the Small-Angle Slot V-Shaped, tungsten-coated divertor is impacted by neon seeding at a variety of injection rates and poloidal injection locations. Measurements from the experiment show an inverse relationship between the neon injection rate and the tungsten core penetration factor. Interpretive modeling is performed with a combination of the SOLPS-ITER and DIVIMP codes to assess the underlying tungsten behavior. The modeling results show that the reduction in tungsten divertor leakage is driven by both an increase in the divertor collisionality as well as a reduction in the ion temperature gradient near the divertor target. Collisions between low- Z impurities and tungsten impurities are found to have a significant impact on the tungsten SOL transport, such that ignoring the low- Z impurity collisional effects on the tungsten transport can result in an overestimate of the divertor leakage by an order-of-magnitude. Given the importance of these localized interactions, neon seeding from the closed, slot-like divertor has a clear advantage in being able to reduce tungsten divertor leakage without the high levels of neon core contamination that occur when seeding from other poloidal locations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enzyme Engineering Database (EnzEngDB): a platform for sharing and interpreting sequence–function relationships across protein engineering campaigns

The discovery and engineering of new enzymes is important across the bioeconomy, with diverse applications from foods to pharmaceuticals, sensors to agriculture. However, enzyme engineering, in particular machine learning-guided engineering, is hampered by a lack of data. Currently there exists no database designed to capture and interpret datasets created in this domain, nor are there easy analysis and visualisation tools. We developed the Enzyme Engineering Database to provide a centralized resource and an online analysis tool to consolidate sequence-function data from enzyme engineering campaigns, thereby making three contributions: (i) a database into which researchers can deposit public data, (ii) visualisation and analysis tools for protein engineers to analyse their own data or compare enzyme variants to other engineering campaigns, and (iii) a gold-standard dataset for benchmarking automated extraction along with the first large language model extraction pipeline specific for enzyme engineering campaigns. The Enzyme Engineering Database is accessible at http://enzengdb.org/.

Long, Yueming [California Institute of Technology ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning PDFs through interpretable latent representations in Mellin space

Representing the parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton and other hadrons through flexible, high-fidelity parametrizations has been a long-standing goal of particle physics phenomenology. This is particularly true since the chosen parametrization methodology can play an influential role in the ultimate PDF uncertainties as extracted in QCD global analyses; these, in turn, are often determinative of the reach of experiments at the LHC and other facilities to nonstandard physics, including at large 𝑥, where parametrization effects can be significant. In this study, we explore a series of encoder-decoder machine-learning (ML) models with various neural-network topologies as efficient means of reconstructing PDFs from meaningful information stored in an interpretable latent space. Given recent effort to pioneer synergies between QCD analyses and lattice-gauge calculations, we formulate a latent representation based on the behavior of PDFs in Mellin space, i.e., their integrated moments, and test the ability of various models to decode PDFs from this information faithfully. We introduce a numerical package, PDFdecoder, which implements several encoder-decoder models to reconstruct PDFs with high fidelity and use this end-to-end tool to explore how such neural-network-based models might connect PDF parametrizations to underlying properties like their Mellin moments. We additionally dissect patterns of learned correlations between encoded Mellin moments and reconstructed PDFs that suggest opportunities for further improvements to ML-based approaches to PDF parametrizations and uncertainty quantification.

Machine learning↗