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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1982

A model of subjective probabilities from small groups

Methods for aggregating the opinions of individual forecasters in order to improve the quality of probabilistic forecasts are presented. Experimental results obtained by Seaver in his study of probability judgments by groups of four people are considered. The decision variable partition model of subjective probability and a simple model of the effects of interaction on judgments were used to simulate the group judgment of discrete probabilities investigated by Seaver. The initial results of the simulation are very promising in that (1) they show the principal effects Seaver observed and (2) these effects can, for the most part, be traced to specific characteristics of the models.

Ferrell, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS1987

NASA Lewis Research Center Futuring Workshop

On October 21 and 22, 1986, the Futures Group ran a two-day Futuring Workshop on the premises of NASA Lewis Research Center. The workshop had four main goals: to acquaint participants with the general history of technology forecasting; to familiarize participants with the range of forecasting methodologies; to acquaint participants with the range of applicability, strengths, and limitations of each method; and to offer participants some hands-on experience by working through both judgmental and quantitative case studies. Among the topics addressed during this workshop were: information sources; judgmental techniques; quantitative techniques; merger of judgment with quantitative measurement; data collection methods; and dealing with uncertainty.

Boroush, Mark↗
NASA NTRS1987

Absolute magnitude estimation and relative judgement approaches to subjective workload assessment

Two rating scale techniques employing an absolute magnitude estimation method, were compared to a relative judgment method for assessing subjective workload. One of the absolute estimation techniques used was an unidimensional overall workload scale and the other was the multidimensional NASA-Task Load Index technique. Thomas Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process was the unidimensional relative judgment method used. These techniques were used to assess the subjective workload of various single- and dual-tracking conditions. The validity of the techniques was defined as their ability to detect the same phenomena observed in the tracking performance. Reliability was assessed by calculating test-retest correlations. Within the context of the experiment, the Saaty Analytic Hierarchy Process was found to be superior in validity and reliability. These findings suggest that the relative judgment method would be an effective addition to the currently available subjective workload assessment techniques.

Vidulich, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Symbolic enhancement of perspective displays

Two exocentric azimuth judgment experiments with a perspective display were conducted with 16 subjects. Previous work has shown these judgments to exhibit a bias possibly due to misinterpretation of the viewing parameters used to generate the display. Though geometric compensations may be used to correct for the bias, an alternate technique selected in the following 2 experiments was the introduction of symbolic enhancements in the form of compass roses. It is suggested that a compass rose with 30 deg divisions results in overall optimal azimuth estimation accuracy when accuracy and decision time are both considered. The data also suggest that the added radial lines on the compass roses may interact with normalization processes that influence the judgment errors.

Ellis, Stephen R.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Comparison of the Performance of Noise Metrics as Predictions of the Annoyance of Stage 2 and Stage 3 Aircraft Overflights

Thirty audiometrically screened test participants judged the relative annoyance of two comparison (variable level) and thirty-four standard (fixed level) signals in an adaptive paired comparison psychoacoustic study. The signal ensemble included both FAR Part 36 Stage 2 and 3 aircraft overflights, as well as synthesized aircraft noise signatures and other non-aircraft signals. All test signals were presented for judgment as heard indoors, in the presence of continuous background noise, under free-field listening conditions in an anechoic chamber. Analyses of the performance of 30 noise metrics as predictors of these annoyance judgments confirmed that the more complex metrics were generally more accurate and precise predictors than the simpler methods. EPNL was somewhat less accurate and precise as a predictor of the annoyance judgments than a duration-adjusted variant of Zwicker's Loudness Level.

Pearsons, Karl S.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Using the Human Eye to Characterize Displays

Monitor characterization has taken on new importance for non-professional users, who are not usually equipped to make photometric measurements. Our purpose was to examine some of the visual judgments used in characterization schemes that have been proposed for web users. We studied adjusting brightness to set the black level, banding effects due to digitization, and gamma estimation in the light and in the dark, and a color-matching task in the light, on a desktop CRT and a laptop LCD. Observers demonstrated the sensitivity of the visual system for comparative judgments in black-level adjustment, banding visibility, and gamma estimation. The results of the color-matching task were ambiguous. In the brightness adjustment task, the action of the adjustment was not as presumed; however, perceptual judgments were as expected under the actual conditions. When the gamma estimates of observers were compared to photometric measurements, problems with the definition of gamma were identified. Information about absolute light levels that would be important for characterizing a display, given the shortcomings of gamma in measuring apparent contrast, are not measurable by eye alone. The LCD was not studied as extensively as the CRT because of viewing-angle problems, and its transfer function did not follow a power law, rendering gamma estimation meaningless.

Gille, Jennifer↗
NASA NTRS2004

Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

Unal, Resit↗
DOE OSTI2021

Key Constructs for Reasonable Confidence in System Validation Programs

This paper presents four key constructs developed in preparing IEEE Std P2411TM, Human Factors Engineering Guide for the Validation of System Designs and Integrated Systems Operations at Nuclear Facilities for submission. These constructs reflect judgments that responsible parties make in order to bring validation to closure. Such judgments weigh competing concerns and cost-benefits for stakeholders. Improved processes and methods may support such judgments but cannot alone eliminate uncertainty. Stating and clarifying these constructs aims to reduce uncertainty in the validation process, to better prepare the implementers and reviewers of future validation programs, both in the nuclear industry and beyond. Reasonable Confidence – A proof standard, as used to reach conclusions in a legal case. Legal proof standards are bounded between “preponderance of evidence” and “beyond reasonable doubt”. Reasonable confidence is comparable to an intermediate legal proof standard of “clear and convincing evidence.” Representative Test Set – A collection of scenarios of sufficient variety to represent the anticipated range of operational conditions, events, evolutions, and activities for validating the system(s) under test. Dispositive vs. Diagnostic Criteria – Relevant performance criteria are placed in one of two categories. Dispositive criteria are assessed, without exception, to determine whether a validation test passes or fails overall. Diagnostic criteria are assessed, subject to justified exception, to evaluate the quality or degree of some particular aspect of performance. Repeatability – Consistency in achieving passing results is to be demonstrated for each scenario in the representative test set; thus, the minimum number of formal repetitions for each scenario is two.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1998

Two memories for geographical slant: separation and interdependence of action and awareness

The present study extended previous findings of geographical slant perception, in which verbal judgments of the incline of hills were greatly overestimated but motoric (haptic) adjustments were much more accurate. In judging slant from memory following a brief or extended time delay, subjects' verbal judgments were greater than those given when viewing hills. Motoric estimates differed depending on the length of the delay and place of response. With a short delay, motoric adjustments made in the proximity of the hill did not differ from those evoked during perception. When given a longer delay or when taken away from the hill, subjects' motoric responses increased along with the increase in verbal reports. These results suggest two different memorial influences on action. With a short delay at the hill, memory for visual guidance is separate from the explicit memory informing the conscious response. With short or long delays away from the hill, short-term visual guidance memory no longer persists, and both motor and verbal responses are driven by an explicit representation. These results support recent research involving visual guidance from memory, where actions become influenced by conscious awareness, and provide evidence for communication between the "what" and "how" visual processing systems.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying preferential flow from soil moisture time series: Review of methodologies

Abstract Identifying and quantifying preferential flow (PF) through soil—the rapid movement of water through spatially distinct pathways in the subsurface—is vital to understanding how the hydrologic cycle responds to climate, land cover, and anthropogenic changes. In recent decades, methods have been developed that use measured soil moisture time series to identify PF. Because they allow for continuous monitoring and are relatively easy to implement, these methods have become an important tool for recognizing when, where, and under what conditions PF occurs. The methods seek to identify a pattern or quantification that indicates the occurrence of PF. Most commonly, the chosen signature is either (1) a nonsequential response to infiltrated water, in which soil moisture responses do not occur in order of shallowest to deepest, or (2) a velocity criterion, in which newly infiltrated water is detected at depth earlier than is possible by nonpreferential flow processes. Alternative signatures have also been developed that have certain advantages but are less commonly utilized. Choosing among these possible signatures requires attention to their pertinent characteristics, including susceptibility to errors, possible bias toward false negatives or false positives, reliance on subjective judgments, and possible requirements for additional types of data. We review 77 studies that have applied such methods to highlight important information for readers who want to identify PF from soil moisture data and to inform those who aim to develop new methods or improve existing ones. Core Ideas Soil moisture data can be used to identify the occurrence of preferential flow (PF) and its initiating conditions. Various data‐analysis methods to identify PF differ in susceptibility to error, bias, and subjectivity. These methods can utilize vast amounts of data from soil moisture monitoring networks to develop understanding of when, where, and under what conditions PF occurs. Newly developed methods may lead to better accuracy and reliability, and reduce the need for subjective judgments. Plain Language Summary Preferential flow through soil occurs when a large amount of water is suddenly available, as during an intense storm. This type of flow moves rapidly through the soil in distinct narrow pathways rather than moving evenly throughout the body of soil, with major consequences for groundwater resources, ecosystems, spreading of contaminants, and other vital concerns. Methods of detecting preferential flow have been developed that utilize measurements of soil water content made by sensors installed at various depths. This measurement technology has been widely implemented, many locations now having datasets years in length, and various methods have been developed for using these to identify preferential flow. The various methods are based on different features in the soil moisture records and vary in their advantages and shortcomings. In this review, we explain and evaluate these methods, highlighting important information for their implementation to identify preferential flow from soil moisture data and for efforts to develop new methods or improve existing ones.

Nimmo, John R↗
DOE OSTI2025

A mathematical approach to using the forgetting curve to evaluate experience and training factors in human reliability analysis

Traditional human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have difficulty dealing with the dynamic nature of factors such as time and rely on static and expert-judgment-based assessments of performance-shaping factors (PSFs) across limited levels. In this study, we introduce a mathematical approach for dynamically evaluating the experience and training PSF. Our proposed method integrates the psychological concept of the “forgetting curve” to evaluate how PSFs are impacted by the number of trainings and the time elapsed since training. To confirm the validity of the model, we provide experimental data fitted by identifying the quantitative relationship between training and human performance. This research enables dynamic and objective assessments, thus reducing reliance on subjective expert judgment and improving the accuracy of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Distinct non-invasive evaluation values of tumor-derived cell-free microRNAs, circulating microvesicles and exosomal microRNAs after renal carcinoma cryoablation

Highlights: • Circulating components could be used for the non-invasive evaluation of renal tumor cryoablation therapeutic effects. • Different circulating components have distinct roles in the evaluation of renal tumor cryoablation. • Exosomal microRNAs may be more suitable for the early postoperative judgment of tumor elimination effects. The detection of peripheral circulating tumor-derived components, such as cell-free microRNAs, circulating microvesicles, and exosomal microRNAs, has been shown as a promising noninvasive strategy. However, the different roles of these components in tumor therapy evaluations have remained largely undefined. In this paper, we employed an in vivo model of the human clear cell renal cell carcinoma line Caki-1-bearing mice to evaluate the therapeutic effects of cryoablation, which is a new minimally invasive treatment for renal cell carcinoma. At different times after cryoablation, we found that the levels of the cell-free microRNAs miR-122, miR-155 and miR-210 were first increased and then decreased. Additionally, the number of large-sized microvesicles was increased after cryoablation, but the number of small-sized circulating microvesicles did not change. Furthermore, the exosomal microRNAs miR-126–3p, miR-17–5p, and miR-21–3p rapidly decreased one day after cryoablation, an effect that was well correlated with the treatment degree. Therefore, we suggest that these circulating components may have different levels of importance in the evaluation of the efficacy of renal cell cryoablation, furthermore, exosomal microRNAs may be more suitable for the early postoperative judgment of tumor elimination effects, which are worth further exploration in clinical practice.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Research Technology Laboratory (RTL) Disposition Program Final Status Survey Report

As part of the Battelle Facility Restoration Program (Smoter and Biebesheimer 2017), the Research Technology Laboratory (RTL) Complex was remediated through demolition and surveyed to show it meets the radiological release criteria for unrestricted use under the clearance process (DOE 2011). The restoration program has directed the implementation of the Multi-Agency Radiation Survey and Site Investigation Manual (MARSSIM) methodology (NRC 2011) to verify the suitability of the site to be released for unrestricted use under the clearance process in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 458.1 (Biebesheimer 2018a; DOE 2011). The use of MARSSIM is accepted by federal and state agencies, including DOE. This report documents how the MARSSIM process was used to assure any residual radioactivity is within acceptable levels and as low as reasonably achievable. Past land use for the RTL Complex property included agricultural, residential, and industrial activity. The historical site assessment (HSA) (Lindenmeier et al. 2015; Biebesheimer 2018b) identified use of radionuclides in past RTL Complex research and development activities from commissioning in 1966 until it was vacated in 2017. Based on the information provided in the HSA, the RTL Complex was delineated into six survey units. The 520 building footprint, tank vault and 530 building footprint, other building footprints, and pipeline survey units included excavated areas. The paved areas and open areas survey units were unexcavated areas. Survey units were all determined to be Class 3, with low probability of containing residual radioactivity, after demolition of the structures within the RTL Complex. The Research Technology Laboratory (RTL) Disposition Program: Final Status Survey Plan (Bunn et al. 2018) was designed and conducted to provide quantitative data regarding the residual radioactivity present in each survey unit. Authorized radiological release limits were developed and approved by the DOE Office of Science in December 2016 (DOE 2017). Fourteen random sample locations were identified within each survey unit. Forty-four specific judgmental sample locations were selected across the site based on information in the HSA. The number of sample locations within a survey unit ranged from 15 to 28, for a total of 127 random and judgmental sample locations identified across the RTL Complex. Sampling for the final status survey occurred over 12 days between November 11 and December 7, 2018. Laboratory results were independently validated by Analytical Quality Associates prior to evaluation. All of the over 880 residual radioactivity measurements were less than the release limits and action levels established through the RTL Disposition Program. A sum of fractions calculation for each survey unit resulted in values that were less than unity. Based on the results presented in this report, the restoration program recommends that the RTL Complex be released for unrestricted use.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1971

Loudness determined by power summation.

The predicted overall loudness of steady, broad-band noise is usually computed by summing weighted loudnesses of sub-bands of the noise intensity (mean-square pressure) spectrum. It is proposed, instead, that the overall loudness should be computed by summing weighted intensities of sub-bands ('critical bands') of noise and then obtaining the loudness of the sum. This method seems to yield better agreement with published loudness judgments than does the usual method. It appears that the proposed method should also yield better agreement with annoyance judgments than does the 'perceived noise' method of Kryter.

Howes, W. L.↗
NASA NTRS1973

A new field-laboratory methodology for assessing human response to noise

Gross measures of community annoyance with intrusive noises have been made in a number of real environment surveys which indicate that aircraft noise may have to be reduced 30-40 EPNdb before it will generally be considered acceptable. Interview studies, however, cannot provide the precise information which is needed by noise abatement engineers of the variable human response to different types and degrees of noise exposure. A new methodological field-survey approach has been developed to provide such information. The integrated attitudes and experiences of a random sample of subjects in the real environment are obtained by a prior field survey. Then these subjects record their more precise responses to controlled noise exposures in a new realistic laboratory. The laboratory is a sound chamber furnished as a typical living room (18 ft x 14 ft) and subjects watch a color TV program while they judge simulated aircraft flyovers that occur at controlled levels and intervals. Methodological experiments indicate that subjects in the laboratory have the sensation that the airplanes are actually moving overhead across the ceiling of the chamber. It was also determined that annoyance judgments in the laboratory stabilize after three flyovers are heard prior to a judgment of annoyance.

Borsky, P. N.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Loudness function derives from data on electrical discharge rates in auditory nerve fibers

Judgements of the loudness of pure-tone sound stimuli yield a loudness function which relates perceived loudness to stimulus amplitude. A loudness function is derived from physical evidence alone without regard to human judgments. The resultant loudness function is L=K(q-q0), where L is loudness, q is effective sound pressure (specifically q0 at the loudness threshold), and K is generally a weak function of the number of stimulated auditory nerve fibers. The predicted function is in agreement with loudness judgment data reported by Warren, which imply that, in the suprathreshold loudness regime, decreasing the sound-pressure level by 6 db results in halving the loudness.

Howes, W. L.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Theoretical and experimental prerequisites of exobiology

Exobiology and the origin of life: The Inseparable Connection The world we live in is constantly changing through a process of evolutionary development that is gradual, and which leads to emergence of ever newer, more complex, more diverse, and richly differentiated forms of reality. This process may not occur simultaneously and identically everywhere, but in different ways at different rates in various places in the universe and on various objects in the celestial world. Thus, evolution must not be diagramed as a single direct line, but rather as a cluster of various paths, whose separate branches may lead to very complex and complete forms of organization and movement of matter. Nothing is known about many of these forms, and in numerous instances, their existence is not even suspected. Any one form should not be considered prematurely as a special category of life, only because of its complexity or perfection. Life is far from a result of all the numerous branches in the development of matter; its specific qualities and ways of emerging and improving are inherent. Only a single example of life, terrestrial life, is known at present, from which judgments must proceed of other possible forms of biological organization. The Earth and the events which originated on it must, to a great extent, serve as a model for broader judgments of life in the universe.

A. I. Oparin↗
NASA NTRS1976

Subjective assessment of simulated helicopter blade-slap noise

The effects of several characteristics of helicopter blade slap upon human annoyance are examined. Blade slap noise was simulated by using continuous and impulsive noises characterized by five parameters: The number of sine waves in a single impulse; the frequency of the sine waves; the impulse repetition frequency; the sound pressure level (SPL) of the continuous noise; and the idealized crest factor of the impulses. Ten second samples of noise were synthesized with each of the five parameters at representative levels. The annoyance of each noise was judged by 40 human subjects. Analysis of the subjective data indicated that each of the five parameters had a statistically significant effect upon the annoyance judgments. The impulse crest factor and SPL of the continuous noise had very strong positive relationships with annoyance. The other parameters had smaller, but still significant, effects upon the annoyance judgments.

Lawton, B. W.↗