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DOE OSTI2025

Robot-based Additive Manufacturing of Lego-type Modular Molds for Wind Blades

The objective of this project is to reduce the cost and lead time of horizontal wind turbine blade mold tooling and blade transportation, while maintaining the highest standards of blade quality. The solution involves a smart-design family of modular molds that are easily transportable to fabrication sites near the place of service. Key innovations include the use of additive manufacturing (AM) to integrate conformal thermal management channels, offering enhanced control over the thermal profiles tailored to specific blade materials. This approach enables in-situ quality assurance during mold fabrication, significantly improves mold life, and allows for reuse across multiple production cycles. Ultimately, the solution aims to optimize both tooling and transportation costs, contributing to the scalability of wind turbine blade production. A significant barrier to scaling up the production of large wind turbine blades lies in the high costs associated with tooling and the transportation of blades. Traditional molds are expensive, bulky, and difficult to transport, adding considerable lead time and cost to the overall manufacturing process. Additionally, transporting blades to distant locations for final assembly further exacerbates these challenges. The project aims to address these inefficiencies by demonstrating a modularized, additive-manufactured mold that meets all necessary blade specification requirements, specifically for blade lengths between 120m and 150m.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A structural equation modeling approach to leveraging the power of extant sentiment analysis tools

Machine-derived sentiment analysis has become a pervasive and useful tool to address a wide array of issues in natural language processing. Leading technology companies such as Google now provide sentiment analysis tools (SATs) as readily accessible online products. Academic researchers develop and make available SATs to support the research enterprise. One of the major challenges with SATs is the inconsistencies in results among the various SATs. Consequently, the selection of a SAT for a specific purpose may significantly impact the application. This study addresses the foregoing problem by utilizing structural equation modeling to merge the outputs of SATs to develop a combined sentiment metric without the need for a labeled training dataset. This method is applicable to a wide range of text-based problems, is data-driven, and replicable. It was tested using three publicly available datasets and compared against seven different SATs. The results indicate that as a continous measure, the proposed method outperformed other SATs in the movie reviews and SemEval datasets, and achieved a tie for first place with IBM Watson on the Sentiment 140 dataset. Also, compared to the published major alternatives, the arithmetic mean solution, this approach performed better across these three datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improving Residential Building Simulations Through Large-Scale Empirical Validation

Residential building energy simulations are increasingly used for energy-efficient building design, codes and standards analysis, home certifications and ratings, utility programs, and technology assessments. Various software tools exist to perform residential building simulations, and these tools often use different models, inputs, and assumptions. This leads to inconsistencies that can undermine confidence in the predicted results. Validation of these tools can increase confidence by ensuring their accuracy and consistency. One way to validate simulation tools is through empirical testing, which compares predicted energy usage to measured utility billing data. This paper describes the process of data collection, data standardization, and empirical validation, and illustrates its use with our residential EnergyPlus (R)-based software. The data and process can be extended to other simulation tools and contribute to improving residential building simulations more broadly.

empirical validation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRT) analysis of wind turbine blade leading edge erosion

Leading edge erosion (LEE) of wind turbine blades has been identified as a major factor in decreased wind turbine blade lifetimes and energy output over time. Accordingly, the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme (IEA Wind TCP) has created the Task 46 Phase 2 to undertake cooperative research in the key topic of blade erosion. The purpose of Task 46 Erosion Phase 2 is to further improve understanding of erosion driving factors, develop datasets and model tools to enhance prediction of leading-edge erosion likelihood, identify damage at the earliest possible stage and advance potential solutions. The scope of work covers several technical areas, reflecting the multidisciplinary nature of the challenge. Participants in the task are given in Table 1.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fermionic systems for quantum information people

The operator algebra of fermionic modes is isomorphic to that of qubits, the difference between them is twofold: the embedding of subalgebras corresponding to mode subsets and multiqubit subsystems on the one hand, and the parity superselection in the fermionic case on the other. We discuss these two fundamental differences extensively, and illustrate these through the Jordan–Wigner representation in a coherent, self-contained, pedagogical way, from the point of view of quantum information theory. Our perspective leads us to develop useful new tools for the treatment of fermionic systems, such as the fermionic (quasi-)tensor product, fermionic canonical embedding, fermionic partial trace, fermionic products of maps and fermionic embeddings of maps. We formulate these by direct, easily applicable formulas, without mode permutations, for arbitrary partitionings of the modes. It is also shown that fermionic reduced states can be calculated by the fermionic partial trace, containing the proper phase factors. We also consider variants of the notions of fermionic mode correlation and entanglement, which can be endowed with the usual, local operation based motivation, if the parity superselection rule is imposed. We also elucidate some other fundamental points, related to joint map extensions, which make the parity superselection inevitable in the description of fermionic systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using a Large Language Model as a Building Block to Generate Usable Validation and Verification Suite for OpenMP

In the HPC area, both hardware and software move quickly. Often new hardware is developed and deployed, the corresponding software stack, including compilers and other tools, are under active development while leading edge software developers are working to port and tune their applications, all at the same time. While the software ecosystem is in flux, one of the key challenges for users is obtaining insight into the state of implementation of key features in the programming languages and models their applications are using – whether they have been implemented, and whether the implementation conforms to the specification, especially for newly implemented features (less tested by widespread use). OpenMP is one of the most prominent shared memory programming models used for on-node programming in HPC. With the shift towards accelerators (such as GPUs and FPGAs) and heterogeneous programming OpenMP features are getting more complex. It is natural to ask whether generative AI approaches, and large language models (LLMs) in particular, can help in producing validation and verification test suites to allow users better and faster insights into the availability and correctness of OpenMP features of interest. In this work, we explore the use of ChatGPT-4 to generate a suite of tests for OpenMP features. We have chosen a set of directives and clauses, a total of 78 combinations, which first appeared in OpenMP 3.0 (released in May 2008) but are also relevant for accelerators. We prompted ChatGPT to generate tests in the C and Fortran languages, for both host (CPU) and device (accelerator). On the Summit super-computer using the GNU implementation, we found that, of the 78 generated tests 67 C tests and 43 Fortran tests compiled successfully and fewer than those executed to completion. On further analysis we show that not all generated tests are valid. We document the process, results, and provide detailed analysis regarding the quality of tests generated. With the aim of providing input to a production quality validation and verification suite, we manually implement the corrections required to make the tests valid according to the current OpenMP specification. We quantify this effort as small, medium, or large, and record the lines of code changed to correct the invalid tests. With the corrected tests we validate recent implementations from HPE, AMD, and GNU on the Frontier supercomputer. Our experiment and subsequent analysis show that although LLMs are capable of producing HPC specific codes, they are limited by their understanding of the deeper semantics and restrictions of programming models such as OpenMP. Unsurprisingly more commonly used features have better support, while some OpenMP 3.0 directives such as sections and tasking are not universally supported on accelerators. We demonstrate that successful compilation and execution to completion are inadequate metrics for evaluating generated code and that, at this time, commodity LLMs require expert intervention for code verification. This points to gaps in the training data that is currently available for HPC. We demonstrate that with "small" effort 37% of generated invalid C tests and 63% of generated invalid Fortran tests could be corrected. This improves productivity of test generation as we circumvent writing from scratch and the common programming errors associated with it.

Pophale, Swaroop [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000185446367)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development and Implementation of Fault-Correction Algorithms in Fault Detection and Diagnostics Tools

A fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) tool is a type of energy management and information system that continuously identifies the presence of faults and efficiency improvement opportunities through a one-way interface to the building automation system and the application of automated analytics. Building operators on the leading edge of technology adoption use FDD tools to enable median whole-building portfolio savings of 8%. Although FDD tools can inform operators of operational faults, currently an action is always required to correct the faults to generate energy savings. A subset of faults, however, such as biased sensors, can be addressed automatically, eliminating the need for staff intervention. Automating this fault “correction” can significantly increase the savings generated by FDD tools and reduce the reliance on human intervention. Doing so is expected to advance the usability and technical and economic performance of FDD technologies. This paper presents the development of nine innovative fault auto-correction algorithms for Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning pi(HVAC) systems. When the auto-correction routine is triggered, it overwrites control setpoints or other variables to implement the intended changes. It also discusses the implementation of the auto-correction algorithms in commercial FDD software products, the integration of these strategies with building automation systems and their preliminary testing.

field testing↗

DOE OSTI2021

Qualification of System-Level Advanced Reactor Safety Analysis Software for Lead Systems: Final CRADA Report

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 is a simulation tool used to perform deterministic analysis of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactors. With its origin as SAS1A in the late 1960s, the SAS series of codes has been under continuous use and development for over forty-five years and represents a critical investment in safety analysis capabilities for the U.S. Department of Energy. Although SAS4A/SASSYS-1 was developed to support the analysis of any liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactor, it has primarily been utilized to design and analyze Sodium Fast Reactors (SFRs). As a result, most of the qualification basis for SAS4A/SASSYS-1 has utilized sodium as a coolant and geometry descriptions that are prototypic of SFR configurations. In this project, which partnered with Westinghouse Electric Company, LLC, the initial foundation for a qualification basis centered on prototypic pool-type lead-cooled systems has been established, where the end goal is to extend support for utilization of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 in Lead Fast Reactor (LFR) licensing or authorization. This project included three fundamental technical tasks: LFR V&V test suite development (Task 1); qualification support for LFRs (Task 2); and LFR modeling capabilities evaluation and improvement (Task 3)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reversible Phase Transformation of Colloidal 2D Lead Halide Perovskite Platelets under Photoirradiation

The photostability of lead halide perovskites is an important criterion for their utilization in light harvesting applications. Colloidal two-dimensional mixed halide perovskites offer a convenient approach to probe photoinduced transformations using spectroscopy tools. We employed suspensions of colloidal 2D methylammonium lead halide perovskite platelets with butylammonium and octylammonium as organic spacer cations. Upon irradiation of the mixed halide perovskite (BAOAMAPb 2 (Br 3.5 I 3.5 )) colloidal platelet suspension, we observe a phase transformation, as seen from the formation of bromide rich domains (BAOAMAPb 2 Br 7 ) and an iodide complex (PbI 3 – ). Unlike in the case of 3D mixed halide films, we did not observe the formation of iodide rich domains as part of the photoinduced phase segregation process. Instead, we observed the dissociation of the BAOAMAPb 2 I 7 to form an iodide complex, PbI 3 – . Interestingly, this photoinduced phase transformation was reversible, as the products which were confined in the colloidal core restored the original mixed halide phase upon storage in dark. The spectroscopic measurements that characterize excited states of different colloidal methylammonium lead halide perovskites and kinetics of photoinduced transformation and their dark recovery are presented. Furthermore, these new phototransformations of colloidal perovskite platelets provide new insights into the processes that dictate their overall photostability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Subsurface mechanical damage of fused silica glass during grinding by various sub-aperture tools with and without ultrasonics

The subsurface mechanical damage (SSD) depth after grinding fused silica glass with a comprehensive set of sub-aperture fixed abrasive grinding tools [cup, wheel, belt, pad, and rotary face mill (with and without ultrasonics)] and process parameters has been statistically measured using the taper wedge technique and evaluated. Consistent with a previously reported grinding model [J. Non-Cryst. Solids 352, 5601–5617 (2006) Crossref , Materials Science and Technology of Optical Fabrication (Wiley & Sons, 2018)], based on the sliding indentation fracture by sliding particles or asperities where the normal load per particle determines the depth of the fracture (and ultimately the overall SSD depth), the dominant factor controlling SSD depth was found to be the abrasive size regardless of the tool type and process conditions. Compared to full aperture grinding methods, the overall SSD depth was higher using the sub-aperture tools, likely due to the higher effective pressure and higher load per particle distribution. Here, in addition to abrasive size, a significant reduction in SSD depth was achieved by: (1) reducing the load distribution on the abrasive particles via increase in contact area and/or decrease in mechanical loading; (2) using a more compliant host tool medium; and (3) in what we believe is a more novel way, using ultrasonics. Combining low abrasive size, larger contact area, and a compliant host, the 6 µm diamond in a resin matrix (Trizact) on a foam pad led to very low SSD depth (~ 4.6 µm), relatively fast grinding rate (186 mm 3 /h), and little or no figure degradation. This grinding tool/process is an attractive choice for final grind, resulting in significantly reduced polish out (i.e., “grey out”) times. With the rotary face mill tool, the use of ultrasonics consistently led to a SSD depth reduction (ranging from 17%–34%). A new fracture mechanics-based model, to the best of our knowledge, where the relevant normal load is parallel to the feed direction, has been developed to explain how ultrasonics leads to lower SSD depth. The key factors, supported by finite element stress analysis and load measurements, are (1) the initiation of fractures at higher z heights during the tool’s ultrasonic vertical oscillations, thus propagating less deep into workpiece; (2) reduction in load (and therefore reduction in fracture propagation distance) due to smaller tool-workpiece feed direction contact area (again caused by higher heights relative to depth of cut); (3) upward movement of the tool during oscillation leads to fracturing toward the surface instead into the depth; and finally (4) at tool’s lowest point of oscillation cycle, there may not be enough time for the fracture to propagate to its full length.

Optics and optical instruments↗

DOE OSTI2022

Pose Classification Using Three-Dimensional Atomic Structure-Based Neural Networks Applied to Ion Channel–Ligand Docking

The identification of promising lead compounds showing pharmacological activities toward a biological target is essential in early stage drug discovery. With the recent increase in available small-molecule databases, virtual high-throughput screening using physics-based molecular docking has emerged as an essential tool in assisting fast and cost-efficient lead discovery and optimization. However, the best scored docking poses are often suboptimal, resulting in incorrect screening and chemical property calculation. We address the pose classification problem by leveraging data-driven machine learning approaches to identify correct docking poses from AutoDock Vina and Glide screens. To enable effective classification of docking poses, we present two convolutional neural network approaches: a three-dimensional convolutional neural network (3D-CNN) and an attention-based point cloud network (PCN) trained on the PDBbind refined set. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed classifiers on multiple evaluation data sets including the standard PDBbind CASF-2016 benchmark data set and various compound libraries with structurally different protein targets including an ion channel data set extracted from Protein Data Bank (PDB) and an in-house KCa3.1 inhibitor data set. Our experiments show that excluding false positive docking poses using the proposed classifiers improves virtual high-throughput screening to identify novel molecules against each target protein compared to the initial screen based on the docking scores.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Can We Fix It Automatically? Development of Fault Auto-Correction Algorithms for HVAC and Lighting Systems

A fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) tool is a type of energy management and information system designed to continuously identify the presence of faults and efficiency improvement opportunities through a one-way interface to the building automation system and application of automated analytics. Building owners and operators at the leading edge of technology adoption are using FDD tools to enable average whole-building portfolio savings of 8 percent. Although FDD tools can inform building operators of operational faults, currently a manual action is always required to correct faults and generate the associated energy savings. A subset of faults, however, such as biased sensors and manual override, can be addressed automatically, removing the need for operations and maintenance staff intervention. Automating this fault “correction” can significantly increase the savings generated by FDD tools and reduce the reliance on human intervention. Doing so is expected to advance the usability, as well as the technical and economic performance, of FDD technologies. In this paper, we present the development of 10 innovative fault auto-correction algorithms for HVAC and lighting systems. When the auto-correction routine is triggered, it will overwrite the control setpoints or other variables (via BACnet or other protocol) to implement the intended changes. These algorithms are able to automatically correct the faults or improve the operation associated with an incorrectly programmed schedule, override manual control, sensor bias, control hunting, rogue zone, and less aggressive setpoints/setpoints setback. The paper will also discuss the implementation of the auto-correction algorithms in FDD software products.

Lin, Guanjing↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Corrective Maintenance Paradigm Shift at Hanford's Tank Farms - 20077

Hanford's Tank Farms facilities have been used to safely store waste for over 70 years, with the first single-shell tanks being constructed in 1943. Tank Farm facilities consist of 149 single-shell tanks, 28 double-shell tanks, an evaporator facility, and wastewater treatment facilities. Tank Farm facilities are aging, with a tremendous corrective maintenance burden on the Tank Farm contractor. The mission of Tank Farm facilities is soon changing from waste storage to waste staging for the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). WTP operations will demand a significant increase in Tank Farm facility operations, in which corrective maintenance outage windows will shrink drastically. This realization has forced the Tank Farm contractor to consider a paradigm shift in Tank Farm facilities Maintenance planning, and the use of reliability Engineering tools. The Tank Farm Production Operations Engineering Cognizant System Engineering (CSE) organization has led the way in motivating this paradigm shift. This shift has been realized through the use of: 1) technical exchange with other Department of Energy (DOE) contractors to develop improvements in the CSE program, 2) a shift from the use of lagging to leading system health indicators, and 3) a Plant Health Committee to unite Engineering, Operations, and Maintenance personnel toward a productive maintenance strategy. The CSE organization has held several technical exchanges with other DOE contractors to discuss CSE concepts, and how to better maintain aging infrastructure. The technical exchange with other contractors has greatly reduced the time required to make improvements in the Tank Farm CSE program. Other DOE contractors have already faced issues surrounding aging infrastructure, and have vast experience in improving the reliability and usable life of structures and components in nuclear facilities. The past CSE program used lagging health indicators to determine the health of systems. The key lagging indicator used to determine system health was availability, which is the percentage of time that a facility was ready for operation compared to the time the facility was demanded for operation. Availability was a good indicator of health in the waste storage mission of Tank Farms, where safe storage was the most important function of the facility, and where maintenance outage windows were typically long-duration. In current and future operations, outage windows are reducing, resulting in the need for much more reliable systems. Systems that have had high availability may suddenly become inoperable due to a failed component or sub-system. In several instances, the use of availability as an indicator of system health failed to predict system/equipment failure before its occurrence. In discussions with other DOE contractors, a set of reliability tools, including leading indicators of health, has been implemented in the CSE program. This primarily involves the use of failure modes and effects analysis and the study of equipment failure to develop system monitoring plans that focus on trending data to detect oncoming equipment failure ahead of time. In addition, the use of a Plant Health Committee has added significantly to the paradigm shift from a corrective maintenance philosophy to the use of predictive and preventive maintenance. The Plant Health Committee is a chartered team consisting of Engineering, Operations, and Maintenance personnel. CSEs use this forum to present the results of their performance monitoring, including the presentation of health via leading health indicators. The most positive aspect of this committee is the communication that it creates within these critical organizations. The Operations and Maintenance organization benefit from focusing maintenance on the reliability-centered focus provided by Engineering. Engineering benefits from the operational experience of the Operations organization and from the failure data that can be provided by Maintenance personnel. The continued use of the Plant Health Committee is expected to further decrease maintenance outage times, in better support of oncoming 24/7 operations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Synchrotron Photoionization Study of the Diisopropyl Ether Oxidation

Abstract Scientific evidence has shown oxygenates help to reduce dangerous pollutants arising from burning fossil fuel in the automotive sector. For this reason, their use as additives has spread widely. The aim of this work consists in providing a comprehensive identification of the main primary oxidation products of diisopropyl ether (DIPE), one of the most promising among etheric oxygenates. The Cl‐initiated oxidation of DIPE is examinated by using a vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) synchrotron radiation at the Advanced Light Source (ALS) of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). Products are identified on the basis of their mass‐to‐charge ratio, shape of photoionization spectra, adiabatic ionization energies, and chemical kinetic profiles, at three different temperatures (298, 550, and 650 K). Acetone, propanal, propene, and isopropyl acetate have been identified as major reaction products. Acetone is the main primary product. Theoretical calculations using the composite CBS‐QB3 method provided useful tools to validate the postulated reaction mechanisms leading to experimentally observed species. The formation of other species is also discussed.

Giustini, Andrea↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exascale workflow applications and middleware: An ExaWorks retrospective

Exascale computers offer transformative capabilities to combine data-driven and learning-based approaches with traditional simulation applications to accelerate scientific discovery and insight. However, these software combinations and integrations are difficult to achieve due to the challenges of coordinating and deploying heterogeneous software components on diverse and massive platforms. Here, we present the ExaWorks project, which addresses many of these challenges. We developed a workflow Software Development Toolkit (SDK), a curated collection of workflow technologies that can be composed and interoperated through a common interface, engineered following current best practices, and specifically designed to work on HPC platforms. ExaWorks also developed PSI/J, a job management abstraction API, to simplify the construction of portable software components and applications that can be used over various HPC schedulers. The PSI/J API is a minimal interface for submitting and monitoring jobs and their execution state across multiple and commonly used HPC schedulers. We also describe several leading and innovative workflow examples of ExaWorks tools used on DOE leadership platforms. Furthermore, we discuss how our project is working with the workflow community, large computing facilities, and HPC platform vendors to address the requirements of workflows sustainably at the exascale.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tech-X contributions to the Center for Tokamak Transients (CTTS) Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) project (Final Report)

The Center for Tokamak Transients Simulations (CTTS) consists of computational plasma physicists, computer scientists, and applied mathematicians who are together developing and applying simulation software to improve our understanding of and ability to predict and control transient events in tokamak discharges, particularly those that lead to violent disruptions. We have major simulation activities concerning disruptions that are caused by violating ideal MHD stability criteria, vertical displacement events, resistive wall modes, and tearing modes. We are performing comprehensive modeling of disruption mitigation techniques, particularly by shattered pellet injection (SPI). The Center is built around two mature extended MHD codes: NIMROD and M3D-C1. These codes are being extended in a number of ways as required by the demands of disruption modeling, and are being optimized to work well for larger problem size and modern computer architectures as required to model tokamak plasmas with realistic parameters over the required timescales. The codes will be coupled to the FronTier code for state-of-the-art modeling of SPI. Validation with experimental data on DIII-D, NSTX, and JET is being facilitated by rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ). The high-level objectives of the center are to: (1) Develop better understanding and improved predictive capability of when crossing a linear stability boundary will likely lead to a disruption, (2) Provide a tool for calculating vessel forces, both axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric, for worst case VDE and other disruptions in tokamaks, (3) Develop increased understanding and improved predictive capability for locked mode disruptions and how best to avoid them, (4) Develop, verify, and validate 3D models for disruption mitigation by shattered pellets that can be used to design and optimize a system for future tokamaks, and (5) Increase the efficiency and scalability of the M3D-C1 and NIMROD codes so that they can model disruptions in ITER scale devices using the most powerful DOE HPC hardware, and (6) Demonstrate code-coupling via FronTier coupling with NIMROD and M3D-C1 and by interfacing these codes within a WDM framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Heating Ventilation Air-Conditioning (HVAC) System Analysis and Optimization for Revit with the OpenStudio Analytical Framework (CRADA Final Report)

This project proposes to integrate the NREL-developed OpenStudio (OS) and its accompanying Analytical Framework (OSAF) into Autodesk’s (ADSK’s) market leading suite of building information modeling (BIM) tools. As a result, BIM users will gain access to advanced (but user-friendly) building energy modeling (BEM), calibration, and design optimization capabilities. Following integration, the BIM software will automatically generate a consistent OS-based BEM model, allowing users to develop projects in an integrated manner, moving back and forth between architectural and engineering perspectives without redundancy or data loss, saving time and effort.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Data Set for Intercomparing the Transient Behavior of Dynamical Model-Based Subseasonal to Decadal Climate Predictions

Climate predictions using coupled models in different time scales, from intraseasonal to decadal, are usually affected by initial shocks, drifts, and biases, which reduce the prediction skill. These arise from inconsistencies between different components of the coupled models and from the tendency of the model state to evolve from the prescribed initial conditions toward its own climatology over the course of the prediction. Aiming to provide tools and further insight into the mechanisms responsible for initial shocks, drifts, and biases, this paper presents a novel data set developed within the Long Range Forecast Transient Intercomparison Project, LRFTIP. This data set has been constructed by averaging hindcasts over available prediction years and ensemble members to form a hindcast climatology, that is a function of spatial variables and lead time, and thus results in a useful tool for characterizing and assessing the evolution of errors as well as the physical mechanisms responsible for them. A discussion on such errors at the different time scales is provided along with plausible ways forward in the field of climate predictions

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗